Alberta gets ready to vote for *SEPARATION* from Canada

[00:00:00]Well, ladies and gentlemen, we have an update on the Alberta referendum. The idea of Alberta separating from Canada, possibly becoming its own country, maybe allowing for easier, more efficient trade with the United States due to their massive amounts of energy resources that right now are relatively limited due to many of the factors within Ottawa, including the environmental regulations.

[00:00:28]But taking a look at this, it says limited and declining support for separation in Alberta. It says two in 10 Albertans plan to vote in favor of holding a future separation vote in the October 19th referendum. So that's when it's going to be happening. It will be happening before the United States midterm elections a few weeks before.

[00:00:48]And so the question here is what are the actual chances of this going forward? It looks like at least this reads that this is really to set up another vote on the actual separation itself. There were some questions in terms of the verbiage of the question in regards to actual separation from Canada. But the big issue with something like this is there's a there's a few different things. Number one, at this point, we're well over a year since Carney won. Right after Mark Carney won in April of 2025, there were a lot of very sad, very angry Albertans. It's considered a more conservative province. By American standards, you could potentially debate that and say maybe it's more independent. Okay. But by Canadian standards, it would be considered more conservative. People right after the election, there's this snap reaction of this is terrible. It's another Liberal government for however many years.

[00:01:44]There's a bleakness. Well, as time goes on, that feeling kind of subsides, at least to a degree. And so, I think you're seeing some of that now where people are saying, well, what really happens next when it comes to separation? If we do separate, how can we possibly function as an economy on our own? There's other problems, I know, with the First Nations, which is basically Canada's indigenous people.

[00:02:09]I'm guessing that'll be solved. But apparently there was some litigation saying, well, the First Nations technically own plots of land within Alberta. And also there's other issues in terms of Ottawa possibly owning areas in Alberta when it comes to some of the public spaces or certain assets within the province. And all of that would have to be sorted out as well. But even to just get this first referendum through, you're probably going to need at least 52 53% because it's not a simple majority based on what happened in the 1990s and what was established.

[00:02:47]And so I would imagine this is going to have a very hard time of passing. This reminds me exactly of Greenland in the sense of if they if the United States really wanted Greenland, they had to make nice with the citizens of Greenland and offer them something. For Alberta to move forward, the people that want to separate, there has to be some enticement into other into into people that right now are apprehensive of the idea of separation. And my thought was that that would come through the United States potentially.

[00:03:17]You can see this doesn't look like it's going to be happening. the Trump administration staying out of the Alberta separation referendum according to an ambassador. And you really wonder, could Trump even help in a situation like this? Because you say, well, Alberta is more conservative, but is it even conservative enough to where Trump is really a net asset? I mean, the the thought process here is there has to be a plan for Alberta if they actually do separate. My guess is there's a lot of people that are saying, "Well, we don't like Ottawa. We don't like the government." They're always it's always liberal. It's definitely a liberal country compared to the United States and there's this idea of it's impossible for really conservative leadership, at least within recent years, ever since Trudeau. I'm going to leave this.

[00:04:01]There's just too many ads. Um, and so there's a lot of bleakness, but then the question becomes, well, are we our own country? Can we support ourselves? I mean, there's some questions surrounding whether or not Canada can even support themselves. And I have heard the idea of Canada potentially inevitably just being swallowed by the United States. And I don't know what that looks like. I don't think it looks like a very promising p prospect because imagine those people got voting rights in US elections is a huge problem. But Canada, their growth has stagnated. You look at their GDP relative to their population increase.

[00:04:40]It's not good.

[00:04:42]And many people say, well, at some point, undoubtedly, Canada's just going to have to join the United States. Their economy is tiny relative to the US, and their military is virtually nothing. I mean, obviously, they cooperate with the US with whatever we want them to do because of the military differences.

[00:05:00]They really have no choice, but we'll just have to wait and see on that. The thought process is that well maybe the Trump administration can help entice Albertans and say listen we will immediately do some type of military agreement or just overall diplomatic agreement to protect Alberta if you do if you guys do become independent on your own. Now maybe that happens after this referendum if it goes forward and passes. The problem is I don't think this is going to pass and they're going to have rallies for this. This is like a big thing within Alberta and there's going to be a lot of deliberation.

[00:05:38]But at this point based off of I mean you see some of the polls where it's up around 35 40%. This one in specific they say it's about 20% would actually want to separate.

[00:05:50]The problem is there's a lot of people undecided. Most of the undecided people probably are not going to vote to separate because it's a drastic maneuver. or if you're undecided, you're much less likely to go with the drastic option, which is separation. The idea would have been Carney wins in April of 2025 and there's a snap referendum within the next few months and you can really get momentum behind it. If this does go forward, they're saying that there's going to be another vote after this for actual separation and that's maybe where the Trump administration would get involved and there potentially would be a pathway to do some type of agreement with Alberta because of their energy prospects being so fruitful.

[00:06:29]They could really be a major producer for the United States. Although at this point this referendum has to pass on October 19th and it looks like the Trump administration is not really involved at least right now. Now maybe as we get closer into August, September.

[00:06:48]This is their actual website for the referendum talking about the idea of becoming independent, whatever that looks like. You know, does that look like them becoming their own country?

[00:07:01]I mean, honestly, you think about Alberta relative to Canada and how much of a net producer it is for their economy because of the natural resources that it sits on top of. Really, it could be its own country. Now, I'm sure there's a lot of uh things that would have to be worked out in terms of uh boring stuff like health care and just things that uh right now it's more of a federal thing within Canada that would have to just become independent within Alberta for the citizens.

[00:07:32]But I would say in general Canada itself is protected by the United States. Why would Alberta, even if it became independent of Canada, why would Alberta just not be protected by the United States as well?

[00:07:44]And if Canada is stagnant at this point in terms of their growth, even though they're adding so many immigrants, the other problem with Alberta is they've also added immigrants and a lot of these immigrants probably are not going to vote to leave. So it's it's kind of ridiculous.

[00:08:02]But we will have to see if this ends up going forward and passing. Right now though, I would say based off of the numbers, it just it just doesn't have the support. Even if it's up to 35 40%, it's going to have to be higher than that. Now, maybe there is something that happens between now and October 19th to where people in you, this is what you would call a catalyst. Something that happens to where many people feel even more disgruntled about the Liberal government. It would be like the trigger protest basically that if you guys remember that happened in Canada, you need something to trigger people to say, "No, we actually need to leave." Because right now it's like there's just stagnation within the country. It's been over a year after Carney won. You're probably not going to have these snap reactions for a lot of these people.

[00:08:47]They're going to say, "We're in the dark about this. We don't know what our future is. We would need a concrete exact plan to be able to actually separate through this referendum." And again, you're also dealing with people that just moved into Alberta that say, "No, we don't want to leave." Because you would think this is more salt of the earth. People that have been there for generations that say, "We are so disgruntled. this is a conservative province and we keep voting liberal and we're done with it and they have their own issues in terms of the fact that Alberta has to give the government of Canada a certain amount of money because other provinces must be subsidized by Alberta due to their amount of natural resources.

[00:09:29]And we will just have to see how this ends up setting up. But right now, I would say maybe you get up to 35% as a high water mark. They need some type of catalyst. Maybe the catalyst was the United States saying we will we'll help you out. You can join the US. But this is the other problem that people have to understand when it comes to these polls.

[00:09:51]They'll do these polls and it'll be like, well, there's a 30% chance, let's just say hypothetically, there's a 30% chance support of leaving Canada and Alberta becoming its own country. Out of that 30%, there's probably about 15% that would be okay with the United States annexing Alberta or Alberta becoming a state or being grandfathered in as a state, probably starting as a territory of the United States. So, the US, the idea of joining the US is even lower in terms of support odds versus Alberta becoming just independent. Now, you could argue in due time Alberta would just be would just be brought in by the US if they became independent. People think maybe they don't sustain themselves. I think they could sustain themselves. Not in terms of military, but it doesn't even matter because it's like look at where Alberta is located. It's just surrounded by the United States to the south and Canada. I mean, what is Canada going to reinvade Alberta if they become independent? It would be very bad for Canada based on the net positive that Alberta brings to their economy because of the resources that they have.

[00:10:57]But this doesn't seem like it has a high probability of happening. I'm I'm just saying even if they became independent and said we don't want to be a part of the US within due time that's something that could potentially happen or there would be some type of strategic partnership where the US would protect Alberta militarily in exchange for loosened trade with energy being exported from Alberta into the United States and vice versa. But they have a lot of energy resources, a lot of oil, and not even just oil, they've also got other assets, including agriculture. So either way, guys, we will have to see if this ends up going through. I I mean, to me, you need a catalyst. And I've been saying this is like if we see these polls, they're at 20% 25% 30%. You got to get to like 52 53%. They say it's got to be more than a simple majority because of when Quebec tried separating back in the 1990s.

[00:11:56]So, it's got to be more than a simple majority. And it would be very interesting if they did actually pull the plug on Canada and say we're separating. It would it would be real messy because then there would be a heavy fight. You're talking about a legal fight from Ottawa and possibly another referendum for an actual separation. How would that set up? And that's when everything would probably be probably be deliberated in terms of Alberta functioning as its own economy versus being umbrellaed as a part of the country of Canada. But you have to get to that point. The only way to get to that point is through getting around 53 maybe 54 55% for this referendum. And at that at this point it doesn't seem very likely. Now this is just one poll. I have seen other polls. It's kind of sparse polling, but you know, it's an average of 25 to 30% would actually vote for separation. Now, there's people that are maybe on the fence. Maybe that's 15 20%, but I don't think you're going to get 15%. I don't think you're going to get 100% of the people that are undecided right now to support this. I I think there probably has to be a bigger, more drastic catalyst. Now, maybe they'll have these major rallies, they'll get a bunch of momentum, it'll be different, but can you really rely on that for I mean, it's it's hard to gauge because it's a referendum and you could argue it's based off of like ju many different things. It's it's not necessarily two candidates running against each other. It's like Alberta verse the country of Canada overall. And if the country doesn't do anything insanely stupid that's would be seen as like crazy liberal or an infringement of the rights of Albertans, is this something that's really going to get crazy support or get pent up support from where it is right now? Which this poll says it's 18%. I think it's a bit more than 18%.

[00:13:47]But even if they have these rallies, there's unknown issues in terms of what happens to Alberta if they do become independent. Do they enter some type of deal with the United States? I would imagine they would.

[00:14:01]And then there's other problems in terms of deliberating things within the province of Alberta, like some of the tribal lands, like other things that potentially could be claimed by Ottawa by in terms of just the the country of Canada owns them. So that's all going to have to be worked out. But that would be worked out if this actually went through because there might even have to be another referendum after that. They're saying if this referendum goes through, which basically would mean like 50, you could argue 51% of the vote, but there's issues even getting 51 because then you're talking about a civil majority.

[00:14:38]You think it has to be higher than a civil majority. So, it would have to be 52. I mean, you know, how would you quantify that? It's kind of hazy in terms of the legality of it. So, either way, guys, that is going to do it for this video. Make sure you like the video down below. Thank you for watching.