The US economy shows a significant disconnect between economic indicators and public sentiment, with wealth and stock market gains concentrated among the top 10-20% of the population while average Americans feel economically insecure. This concentration is driven by the AI boom, which represents the fastest investment cycle in technological history but may create a bubble that could burst when interest rates rise. Meanwhile, AI companies like OpenAI, Anthropic, and Palantir are launching fashion merchandise lines to build brand identity and address public perception challenges, recognizing that despite their technological capabilities, AI lacks the creativity and cultural relevance that humans provide.
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The Economic Odyssey | Everybody's Business
Added:Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio, news.
Max Chaffkin, >> Stacy Vanix, >> I have a question for you.
>> Shoot.
>> Have you seen the Odyssey?
>> Stacy, it is so hard to see the Odyssey.
I [laughter] want to see the Odyssey.
Everyone's talking about it. Seen the Odyssey, >> but I can't. It's the theaters are all sold out. There's the question of do you see it in IMAX? Do you see it on a normal screen? Is the IMAX screen you are watching it on a real IMAX screen or is it LMAX which is like a fake IMAX?
There's a whole bunch of stuff but yes very >> there's also a huge secondary market for tickets especially for IMAX tickets and this is just the hottest ticket in town right now.
>> My favorite thing about the Odyssey Stacy is that the Odyssey metaphors because it's such a universal story we could use it >> absolutely >> all the time. economy of twists and turns [laughter] from Skyla to sirens. It's all there.
So, I I propose that today for this episode, we go on a little bit of an odyssey of our own into [clears throat] the US economy.
>> Okay. I feel like we do that every week, Stacy. But I'm I'm I'm with you.
>> We're branding it. [laughter] That's the difference.
>> This is Everybody's Business from Bloomberg Business [music] Week. I'm Stacy Vanick Smith.
>> I'm Max Shafkin.
>> And today on the show, Max, we are going on an odyssey of our own. Into the heart of the economy, we have got Rier Sharma talking [music] about where we are in our economy right now and why maybe the stock [music] market is the economy.
>> Yeah. And we're going to be talking about one of my favorite topics, how AI companies brand themselves. [music] We've got Sarah Frier, uh, Bloomberg managing editor, author of a great book on Instagram here to [music] talk about that >> and and how they are getting into the fashion business.
>> They are they are [laughter] fashion houses now. AI companies you if you didn't know.
>> Absolutely. We also have some great [music] underrated stories. We have got Python pizza and the new Rat Dollar [music] >> and a sequel, a potential sequel to the Odyssey. You may not have seen it yet, but there's another one coming [music] by the end of the year.
>> Maybe ever so slightly less great than this one.
[music] So, Max, Americans feel awful about the economy right now, which is kind of strange because in a lot of ways, the economy is actually doing pretty well.
But, you know, I think people are feeling like we're not going in a good direction.
>> Yeah. I mean, on one hand, you have the stock market is is is ripping. You have the job market is okay. We've talked about this. On the other hand, even today, oil prices going above 100 today as we record this amid a new, you know, sort of back and forth with Iran. Uh, a lot of uncertainty. I don't know. It's a weird time. So here to help us make sense of this moment is Rier Sharma, chairman of Rockefeller International and author of What Went Wrong with Capitalism. Welcome Riier.
>> Thanks so much Stacy for having me.
>> So before we kind of dive into the particulars, I'd love to get your overview of the economy right now.
because in a lot of ways it's quite strong but also what I consider to be kind of two of the main pillars of it that being the job market and inflation have been kind of middling and seemingly going in a circle of sorts for years now.
>> Yeah.
>> When you look at the economy, what do you see?
>> Well, I see a very big disconnect, a big disconnect which has never been there before between what the sentiment surveys are telling you and what economic growth is actually doing. And there's a perfectly logical explanation for why this is happening because the economic growth is being entirely driven by the top 10 or 20%. If you look at all the spending, all the uh wealth creation which is acrewing to them from the stock market, it's all concentrated in that top cohort. So now the surveys which people take, those are asking the average person how they're feeling and the average person is not doing that well. If you look at what rail wages are doing particularly after inflation and then also if you look at basic stuff that can they afford a home the ownership of equities it's all concentrated in the older generation uh very few of the young generation have that much equity wealth and that's what's generating so much of the buzz in the economy today the wealth creation coming from the stock market and then there is the relative argument which is that as you know that even today surveys show that people with 300,000 or 400,000 of earnings a year, they are also feeling miserable partly because uh of social media and other things where we're always hearing about how the billionaires or the multi-billionaires are doing so well and so that sort of feeds even more insecurity. So, as you know, um so much of how you feel is a relative game. Yeah.
>> And so, we look at the other people who are doing really well and then we look at ourselves and we're comparing our insides to their outside, right? And so we are feeling miserable about it. So I think therefore this massive gap is opened up between how the real economy is doing and [clears throat] how the average person is feeling. And so the average person they're not feeling that great about the economy for understandable reasons. So one thing I wanted to ask about what within the gains of the stock market is almost a reflection of how there's a top cohort of consumers driving all consumer spending. There are a few stocks that are really driving the gains in the stock market. Yeah.
>> You've written about this a little bit also in what went wrong with capitalism.
You talk about the dangers of companies they're kind of tangled up with the government. Do you see that moment happening right now? How do you look at this moment where we have a few companies driving you know gains that we've never seen before in the stock market? Yeah, I think that's the problem of the entire economy today which is that it's not just stock market but this concentration which is happening is happening at a corporate level as well >> in three out of four industries we have seen much greater concentration over the last few decades uh take place and the stock market has never been this concentrated now of course this is a unique moment because we're seeing this incredible AI boom and that's what's driving a lot of the returns in the stock market as well so it's I think the two factors one that over time we have seen that the gains have become increasingly concentrated. That's reflected today in the S&P 500 that it's never been this concentrated that the num that the top 10 companies are you know whatever nearly 40% of the entire market cap or so. But the other thing which is going on also is that and this is happening across the world which is that there's only one factor driving returns today which is AI. M >> so it's like across the world what you're seeing is AI or bye-bye right which either you have AI or you don't if you don't have AI stock any stock market around the world the uh positive returns this year have almost all been driven by which countries are doing well on AI and which and which countries are not doing well on AI they in fact have negative returns so that's the sort of world order we have been for the first six seven months of this year >> when you say it's being driven driven by AI. I'm kind of curious what you mean because I I almost would say it's being driven by AI hype or AI enthusiasm, but like because there is this there's a story we could tell. Uh it's not happened yet, I don't think, where AI everyone, you know, buys a bunch of GPUs and we all get uh large language models and we do our job so much better. We we make twice as many podcast episodes and the economy booms and it's amazing. That has not happened yet, I don't think. uh we're still making the same number of podcast episodes each week. But so what is when when you say AI is driving it, what are we actually saying?
>> Well, it's the AI spend which is driving it, right?
>> People buying stuff to do AI in the future.
>> Yeah. So this is a massive investment cycle which is going on around the world. In fact, this is the fastest increase we have seen in any investment cycle in any technological breakthrough.
And this is where I've been writing a lot about this, which is that the greater the technological breakthrough, the greater the financial bubble tends to be. That's the 300 year history of bubbles because the excitement tends to be huge. You end up spending a lot. The lot of overinvestment which happens and then what happens typically is that after a while when this investment goes on, you typically get a uh an increase in interest rates for some reason and that's what ends the bubble. So I'm very clear about this which is that the technology is great and you're totally correct that there's a lot of hype around it as well. It's driving this massive investment boom around the world that spend is showing up in the GDP numbers also going up. But the fault line here is that this is happening at a time when money is relatively easily available. Uh that if you look at interest rates today uh by any measure interest rates are relatively low after adjusting for inflation. Uh so if you end up getting any any increase in interest rates, I think this AI hype and this AI bubble comes to an end.
>> You're saying there is an AI bubble.
>> Yeah.
>> What happens when this bubble pops?
>> I think then we are left with a massive amount of overinvestment and it'll be a long clean out of the cycle. In a bubble, you typically tend to get overinvestment, you get overvaluation, you get uh overlever, and you end up getting over ownership. So those are the four ownership. Yeah. So that's a very interesting uh which is that a lot of people own the same stocks and they own uh it in big size. Now one very interesting thing which has happened here going back to the top of our discussion is that today for the first time in h in America's history more uh of America's wealth is in the stock market than in uh property.
>> Oh wow. rather than in their homes which was the traditional store of >> wealth rather than their own homes or even a second homeow more of the wealth today so if you look at the total bucket today more than 30% uh of America's wealth today is in the stock market and that is slightly above for the first time crossed over how much is in the property >> that's crazy especially given how home prices have been you have gone up a lot and so on um you brought this up at the beginning of our conversation the the kind of um disconnect between the way people feel and [snorts] the way the economy actually is. And I'm curious, you have on one hand AI kind of causing the economy to go berserk, you know, firing on all cylinders, and then you also have this story that's happening at the same time about the same technology that's like it's going to take your jobs. It's going to be scary. I mean, we we'll get to this in the next segment, but I'm kind of curious how you see those things playing against each other. This is what's unique about this boom that historically with the internet or other technological progresses there was a lot of excitement even amongst the average person. This is possibly the most hated technological innovation of all time.
>> Yeah. you know, like as a boom, >> partly because the tech bros and everyone is going out there and have been telling you that, you know, like uh we're going to have 10 20% unemployment and you're sitting there at home and you're hearing about all these cases of how the data centers these boxes are coming up somewhere and that your electricity bill is going up, you know.
So now while none of this has really happened as far as job losses are concerned in any size the employment rate is still relatively healthy but I'd say that the uh feeling which has been conveyed is that this is coming for you.
>> No no you better get with it now or you're going to get left behind. And it's also like I think there's also like also been a bit of arrogance you know like in some of these closed door meetings you know of some of these top tech people they sort of you know their sort of attitude and I've seen this is the fact that listen this is happening we have to win this arms race you better get in line and if you don't get in line you know too bad.
>> I wanted to ask you like relating back to your book is this capitalism sort of succeeding until it fails? Do you see this as a moment of capitalism success and promise or why capitalism isn't working?
>> No, for me as I said that I am a huge believer in capitalism.
>> Okay.
>> But I feel but I'm very distressed by the fact that today most Americans, young Americans in particular have more of a positive view of socialism than capitalism.
>> Abs. I mean look at the city we're in and our mayor who is a socialist Democrat. Yeah. And that's why like I wrote this book to uh to show the history of capitalism and to argue in the book that capitalism hasn't failed.
The current system we have is broken and the and that what we have today is not capitalism that it is a very distorted form of capitalism which favors the incumbents where the government keeps on intervening to help the establishment uh out there. So capitalism did not fail big government which has failed it and that the government policies progressively over the last 40 50 years whether it's regulation or it's monetary policy or it's the culture of bailouts all these have helped the established players and that's what's fueling the resentment amongst the average person.
And they're like, you know, that the government seems to only help the like the rich, you know, like they they socialize their losses when they're in trouble. And for us, we don't get that much benefit out of the system.
>> All right. Well, Rier, thank you so much for talking with us. It's been great having you um on this journey with us into the heart of the economy.
>> We'll have you back when we bail out those AI [laughter] 6 months from now.
>> Yeah. We'll justify it. Think ch China, you know, is doing X. Yeah, >> you got to do it.
>> National It's a matter of national security.
>> Yeah.
>> Thanks, RER.
>> Thank you, >> Stacy. You know that I consider myself to be a fashionable guy. Somebody who's always trying to look look his best, constantly updating my look, checking out what the new designers are. I'm I'm kind of kidding, but I bring this up because there's some hot new looks that have come out from [laughter] some very exciting new designers.
>> Yes. Tell us about these looks.
>> These companies, the the the big new fashion firms, Open AI, the AI company, Anthropic, another AI company >> as fashion houses here, the the slightly big brotherish surveillance thing that's AI coded. I bring this all up because AI is in kind of a weird moment where you have people with very strong feelings about it and the AI company's kind of frantically trying to figure out how to turn those strong feelings around. We have a great person to talk about this. It's Sarah Frier. She is Bloomberg's managing editor for technology. She wrote the book No Filter uh which is about Instagram. She's kind of an expert in how big tech companies market themselves, how they sell themselves to the world. Hey Sarah. Hello.
>> All right. I don't know if you've seen this. I don't know if Stacy's seen it.
And I'm guessing some listeners haven't seen it. So, we should just pull up a couple of these. Jasmine, can you just just cycle through some of these hot new looks that I'm talking about? So, this is a beautiful fleece >> like a pullover. [laughter] >> Pullover. It says research. There's some really good looks from Palunteer as I mentioned.
>> Drop 16.
>> Yeah, Palanteer. The I guess white is the thing. They've got all these >> tennis whites.
>> Tennis whites. There's a tennis ball with the Palanteer stock ticker.
>> Why are they associated with tennis?
They have like a tennis ball, a tennis skirt, tennis patches, and oh, this one I knew know about the work coat. The work coat I have heard is quite a hot item. It's a couple hundred dollar and it keeps selling out and at at a couple points I think crashed the site.
>> Yeah.
>> Wow.
>> And Anthropic, not to be outdone, has their own kind of fashiony thing. Here's a a hat that says thinking on it.
>> It's a thinking cap. [laughter] >> They open like a a popup store, which I think we'll see in a second. Oh, yeah.
It's >> in the West Village.
>> Yeah, in the West Village.
>> What? Oh my gosh. A clawed clothing store.
>> So, Sarah, what what's going on here?
Like why are these companies that are saying on one hand we need to spend all our money to buy these very expensive GPU chips so we can you know basically lock ourselves in a closet do prompts all day and eventually I don't know cure cancer or or make the world a better place. Like why are they selling all this merch?
>> If you're building an AI one of the biggest things you're running up against is this idea that AI doesn't have taste.
It might have information. It might have facts. It might have resources for you, advice. It might be able to code you a personal website or um you know, give you tips on how to declutter your home, >> do your taxes for you.
>> Yeah. It does not have fashion sense. It does not have coolness. It doesn't have the the stuff we're looking for from humans, which is creativity, new ideas, like a new way of living that is inspirational.
it might inspire me in, you know, very convenient ways, but not in ways that like will light my brain up. So, I think what they're trying to do here is they're trying to say if people buy this stuff, they'll go around and give it a cool factor. Honestly, it's it's feels to me like people might be buying it ironically. It might be a conversation starter. Honestly, if I'm wearing a a hat that says thinking, that is from Claude. Do you think there is an image problem among AI companies? Is this an attempt to deal with that or is this something else?
>> This is an attempt to deal with the blandness problem. I think that AI is it's very predictable. I mean, people make fun of like the M dashes or the it's not this, it's that, you know, all these things that come as like the the way of talking that is so recognizably from a chatbot that they're trying to say that there's a different flavor. If you go to this one versus that one, people might stand chat TPT or they might be more of a claude person. And the more they can connect it to personal identity, the more staying power they have. Look at the market right now. Like everyone's got a chatbot. They have to build stuff on top of the chatbot to make it a desirable chatbot that you want to keep coming back to instead of going to Gemini, instead of going to Grock. Like you you want to have people stay with the one that they identify with and build perhaps a relationship with, a dependability with. I will say that a lot of these uh slides that I just showed, they sort of look derivative in their own way. Almost like a chat GPT version of fashion or something. I I mean it's like the anthropic one particularly looks like a store that was cool around the time that the average anthropic engineer locked himself in and started, you know, vibe [laughter] coding or whatever. Like, but putting that aside and a bunch of people have criticized these. They're getting dunked on for being kind of like try to trying.
>> Attention is good attention when it comes to like increasing awareness of the brand, you know?
>> Okay, but just put all that aside because I do think some people think these are cool. Stacy mentioned the the chore coat and it does seem like Okay, there's probably some people are buying that ironically cuz it's funny to buy a chore coat from a surveillance company, but also I think some people are buying it cuz it's a cute coat.
>> Cuz it's a cute coat. Yes. And I wonder, Stacy brought up this this issue, but you know, AI is just ridiculously unpopular. And it almost feels like these companies are just trying to meme themselves into some kind of popularity here. Like maybe if they sell you a basketball or something, you you won't focus on the data center. I don't know.
>> I think is this m where there is a lot of unpopularity of of AI, they have to try to figure out a way to turn it around. I don't know if this is the way.
I think some of the work they've done with with studios or with influencers or celebrities, it might help, but then but then I feel like with those groups, it's playing with fire because they don't want to outsource their livelihoods to AI. I mean, like you said, it's bland advice because it's the compilation of advice from the entire internet, right?
like whatever you're getting from AI comes from from every bit of documentation it can possibly ingest and then bring back to you. It's going to be bland. It's going to be very basic. So you say that AI is kind of known for being bland. And I think that's true, but also it's known, I think, for being a little sinister. I think there's a sinister element particularly in regards to jobs. I think people are so worried about jobs going away and AI's impact on our relationships, on our work, all these things and it being kind of a force for the not good. And it it occurs to me that all these fashions are sort of carheart like um which is a brand that I grew up with in Idaho, like a farming brand, and then now it's all over Brooklyn, >> which is interesting. But it seems like Yeah. work wear it seems like kind of coded for workers. Are they trying to like is this like a Trojan horse situation where they're kind of trying to introduce their brand as like the friend of the worker while possibly taking workers' jobs? I don't think a $200 coat is what I can what I associate with the average American worker. I see where you're going with that, but like I see this more as like someone someone who's like a fanboy of this company would maybe buy it or an employee or an investor would want to like present these like I wouldn't wear it if I were a college professor.
>> Let me just play one more thing. This is a commercial that Anthropic is running.
All all the AI companies are advertising now and they're they're advert they're actually starting to talk to these specific issues like some images of A burning house is an interesting >> Can AI be trusted >> graveyard?
>> Who's going to hit the brakes if we need to?
>> Oh my gosh.
>> How do we really ensure that what we're aiming to achieve really does benefit the majority of people? [laughter] >> What is this?
>> If it ends up taking like almost all the jobs, then what does it mean to work?
[music] >> Well, wait a minute. Why do we have to have this stuff?
>> [music] >> Could AI help people stop feeling misunderstood?
>> Could AI help me build more connections?
>> Things are getting more inspiring.
>> Can AI help me be a [music] better teacher, a better mom?
>> Maybe it'll cure some great things of life.
>> Okay, there's hope in hard questions.
>> Okay. [music] Yeah. The tagline, >> keep thinking.
>> Keep thinking.
So Sarah, I mean this is anthropic.
Their brand is kind of like we are the AI safety guys, but I find it pretty interesting that they're just how explicitly they are in acknowledging that many people find this scary.
>> The images in the beginning are disturbing.
>> It's so melodramatic that I I mean I I I find it very cringy. It's just like I was joking. It makes me want to be an AI accelerationist. so like overthe-top.
And what is this ad trying to say? I >> think it's trying to acknowledge the fear the the apocalyptic sense that people have around AI, the fact that they think it's going to take all the jobs, it's going to burn our house and destroy the planet. It's trying to get people to think about the possibilities, too. Like, okay, maybe we'll acknowledge that that's a concern, but what about curing disease? What about becoming a better mom? Like I think it's trying to ask you to change your framing. Whether that's going to work, I think people a lot of people watching this would probably just have like an like an emotional swing with it and then feel manipulated. I don't know. Does it matter if we have a bad association with AI? It's being adopted everywhere. It's very useful. It kind of helps us even if we don't have a great feeling about it.
Do these companies care if they are liked or feared. Is this a big deal to them economically, politically?
>> I think that it's it's a big deal for them in part because the boom for AI depends on communities letting companies build data centers in their in their local area. It depends on states not passing moratoriums on data centers centers. It depends on it if it's just happening to some extent. It depends on communities being willing to share their energy resources, water resources, land.
As of now, you know, unless we have some breakthrough that doesn't require transformer architecture. As of now, we really do need people to want the build out because we live in a democracy where people get to vote on these things and politicians know that it's unpopular and it is likely going to be a big factor in the midterms as to whether people will will [music] embrace the growth of AI or not.
>> Stick around. We are going to get to our underrated story and we have something special just for you Sarah. for [laughter] me.
>> All right, Stacy, it's that time. It's the time we love. We've got a special guest, Sarah Frier, here. Underrated story. Why don't you start?
>> My underrated story, I think, could solve a lot of problems. It has to do with a pizza place in Florida in Everglades City and the owner of the pizza place in lie of payment will accept Burmese pythons.
So, let me explain. The Everglades has a Burmese python problem. It's an invasive species. They are eating all the native species. And so Florida's trying all these things to get rid of the pythons, including it has this big contest that just wrapped up where they send a snake hunters out to see who can collect the most pythons. And they have a prize. But this pizza place will sell you a pizza for a dead python. And the owner uses the python skins to make products. Uses >> not in the pizza.
>> Also a pizza topping. So this is the story. It's very funny and delightful, but I think this is something that we could use in other places, too. Here in New York, we have a major rat problem.
We have a rat zar. There is a big rat infestation in our city. We have an affordability crisis happening.
>> Oh my god. Cy, are you pitching putting rats on pizza to solve the rat? Totally not putting rats on pizza. But I was thinking we could have like a like rat currency like a rat dollar here >> and we could have like coin star machines except they could accept rat carcasses >> and then you know >> I thought you were going to say these pythons to New York City to eat all the rats.
>> Well, they're coming whether >> Well, that's also an interesting idea.
[laughter] >> So many pythons by the end of a they'd be feasting in the subways for a long time. But I just thought this was such an interesting solution to turn something you don't want into a currency because I do think it could solve an affordability problem. It could solve a pest problem. And it's like a win-winwin.
>> I'm just glad that innovators like this pizza guy are are trying to come up with unique market-based solutions to this [laughter] problem.
>> Would you guys kill rats and convert it into currency for like $3, $5?
>> It's like a total health hazard.
>> Okay. Well, I didn't think of that, but yeah.
>> Okay. Uh, my underrated story is kind of in keeping with what we were talking about before. It's about AI executives embracing their creative sides. And of course, I am talking about Elon Musk's plan to remake the Odyssey to prove that Christopher Nolan's The Odyssey sucks.
Are you familiar with this, Sarah?
>> No, [laughter] I'm not familiar with this plan.
>> So, let's just pull this up. I should say Elon Musk as you know Sarah because you know we were on the Elon Inc.
podcast together all the time he loves side quests. He also you know not averse to kind of right-wing cultural signaling. He has been mad along with many many many people on the internet for like I don't know a year or so or however long ago it was when Christopher Nolan announced the casting of the Odyssey essentially mad that they cast a black woman as Helen of Troy cast a transman in a role Elliot Page and he has been posting up a storm about how terrible the Odyssey is going to be how it's all a scop and so on and unfortunately for that point of view the Odyssey has been doing really really well. Elon Musk responded yesterday vowing to make his own odyssey to prove once and for all that this is bad. He's going to use Grock to do it. And he even uh sort of re posted kind of like I guess what is sort of like a an early trailer or something. We can we can give it a look.
>> This is an AI generated trailer.
>> It's more like a sketch I guess you'd call it. It's it's a Grock creation. Grock is the AI chatbot. And um I guess this is the idea is that this would be a more palatable version of the Odyssey to Elon Musk.
>> The sea will take you from me. [music] >> I will return.
I left my one love.
An oath called me.
Troy >> Sarah, do you think this could be Elon Musk's like next big venture after SpaceX, Tesla, and so on >> to make movies? [laughter] I hear it's really I hear it's really profitable.
Um, great business.
>> Stacey, what do you think?
>> It's interesting the idea of the Odyssey, too. I feel like [laughter] it's kind of a beautiful end to the journey of our show to have another Odyssey, right? Because the whole point is is Ulisses coming home, right? But now Ulisses has come home. Everybody else wants to send him out on this journey again. We're like right back where we started [laughter] in another odyssey [music] with angels apparently.
>> Sarah Frier, author of No Filter, Bloomberg [music] technology managing editor. Thank you for being here.
>> Thanks for having me.
>> Thanks Sarah.
>> This show is produced by Jasmine JT Green and Stacy [music] Wong. Magnus Hendrickson is our supervising producer.
Sam Rogich handles engineering and Dave Purcell fact checks. Special thanks to Jeff Muscus, Julia Rubin, and Maria Ling. If you have a minute, please rate and review the show. It'll mean a lot to us. And [music] if you have a story that should be our business, if you have a a mystery that you want us to investigate, like we did last week, email us everybody's bloomberg.net. [music] That's everybody with an s at bloomberg.net. Thank you for listening and we will see you next week.
[music]
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