Flash Drought in Europe...

[00:00:00]A flash drought for parts of Europe.

[00:00:02]Thank you for joining me. I'm meteorologist Brian Shields here on Mr. Weatherman Europe. It is Friday, the 24th of July, 2026. A flash drought.

[00:00:11]This happens when you have an extreme heat wave like we had in June, followed by that lack of rain. And then on top of it, you have that wildfire threat. And it does look like that drought is going to get even worse as we work our way forward, not just through the end of the month, but through the end of summer.

[00:00:29]Let's cover that. Here's the precipitable water. This is kind of gives me a measurement, something I use behind the scenes, how much moisture is available in the atmosphere. And of course, if you have a lot of moisture, better chance of some rain. But these brighter colors sitting over the Atlantic, they are not really on top of most of Europe. This is where we'd have that better chance of rain. But you could see not a whole lot of the precipitable water is low. And that has been keeping many of us dry. I know not all of us. Some of us have gotten some welcome rain. But others just way too dry. And this coincides with what we're seeing with a storm track the next few days. Let me take you out in time here.

[00:01:05]This is Monday. We get a little dip in the jet stream. With that, that is kind of a good sign. It looks like maybe the pattern will break. But it just doesn't last. That's just a wrinkle. Look how quickly this all builds back up and around again. So high pressure in control. So again, the spots that have been dry are going to generally remain dry with some exceptions. But high pressure the dominant feature right through the end of the month. And I want to take you through the end of the month in this video. And you see the next 7 days where we have this brown shading on the map, that's below average for some of the rain. Scotland back toward Norway, for example, parts of Southeast Europe, rain chance a little bit higher.

[00:01:46]But even over toward the Baltic states, running below average over the next 7 days. And that's one of the spots we've seen some of the rain. So running below average for many again as we go through the end of the month. Now, looking at the soil moisture or lack thereof, of course, this a big signal of some of the drought conditions. This a big concern for agriculture, no doubt. And you see where we have these hotter colors, the browns, the yellows, the reds, that's where we're having significant issues with the soil moisture. And you can see the surface soil moisture, the wetness percentile here, these hotter colors, that's where we have that lack of moisture, a huge, huge issue in many spots. And that does coincide to that fire threat that we have, and of course, the drought index. Taking a look at this, where we have the yellows, drought watches, the oranges, that's where we have drought warnings, and then various alerts for significant drought issues around. And you can see how widespread this is. Let me zoom down just a little bit here. These are some of the hot spots. I know again, some of us have gotten rain, but others and many have been dealing with this a deep drought, very unusual for certain spots. Parts of Ireland, for example, although we're not seeing this kind of really popping up, there's different indicators out there.

[00:02:58]It's been dry, no doubt. I'm watching England south, but France, swinging back all the way over toward Romania. Parts of Romania, for example, we have been so very dry back through Spain, Italy with that fire threat. So, the drought warnings are out for many, and that's a signal that that's going to last. A drought warning is not really a short-term thing. That's like, hey, we are in a drought. This could last for a while. Now, looking at the past 7 days with the fires, where you're seeing these reds on the map, that's where we've had some wildfires. Now, of course, some are different, some burn more than others, some last longer than others, but you get the idea of these locations coinciding with that lack of rain. Fires just this week, you could see right through here as we get a look even back toward a Ukraine, Italy. Ooh, hot spot there. And where you see some of these oranges, that's where at least as of uh uh me putting out this video for you.

[00:03:53]That's where we have some of the active burns ongoing. So, we do have those fires in some, especially back toward France and Italy. So very significant other spots as well. So, with that, I want to touch on this, and then I'll show you that outlook. Uh this is important uh because if you're downwind, that's a problem. Winds coming in uh onshore out of the west, right through here. Portugal, Spain today. Uh kind of light back toward parts of France for today, which does help with that uh fire fight as we work our way into tomorrow.

[00:04:23]Uh we're going to see more of that onshore flow picking up uh across uh parts of France. So, if you're sitting off toward the east, a better chance of some of that uh smoke uh finding you. If you have any health concerns and you're downwind from a fire, that's why I wanted to show you this. If you have any breathing issues, yeah, this is a big thing. Winds are going to be more west to east as we work our way across France as we go through the weekend. North to south uh rather Sunday, I should say.

[00:04:49]North to south Portugal and Spain. Kind of that south to north flow for much of uh Italy. So, again, if you're downwind location from some of these fires, some of that smoke with that a very reduced air quality uh will be heading your way.

[00:05:04]Now, looking at through the end of July, this takes us through the 31st. Look at this lack of rain that we're going to be having. Some spots just just staying dry. So, we're going to be drying out further. We work our way back toward Denmark, uh the Netherlands, working our way back toward Belgium, uh swinging back toward parts of England.

[00:05:24]Just that overall dry weather. Even where we get catch a few showers, 10, maybe 15 mm of rain, that's not a whole lot. Yes, there are these exceptions in spots. Iceland, uh Norway, parts of Sweden. Even uh Lithuania, we could see a couple of the uh showers uh that will be around Belarus. Couple of the uh showers around. Uh but we're seeing more blues than anything. And right where we have that significant fire threat, uh Italy, uh parts of Austria, Switzerland so very dry. Get back toward France, Spain, Portugal. That's where we're going to be mainly dry. And here's the thing, where we're seeing some of this action here, and I'll show you this in a second, this is really kind of thunderstorm activity or or downpours, which would sound good. That'd be a lot of rain, but it's a short period of time. It just runs off, doesn't really sink in, evaporates, runs off rather quickly. So, it doesn't actually help a whole lot. And you can see how we are dry. Bulgaria, Serbia, Montenegro, Kosovo, North Macedonia, Albania, just naming a few spots, not seeing a ton of rain. And again, most of this would be some of the thunderstorm activity that would be around. And again, we need those substantial kind of rainy days, and we don't have that. You can see it here.

[00:06:34]This is later today, and there's that area of high pressure that is just parked in place. And let's go out kind of longer term, up and around storm track, where we have some of that moisture swinging all the way down. By the way, some of these Bulgaria South, watching through Greece, over toward Turkey, they could be on the strong side as we work our way into tomorrow. You see a couple of the showers and storms right through here, pulling back through the Alps, back toward France and northern Spain. But again, that's the runoff stuff. And sometimes you get lightning strikes with that that cause additional fire. So, it's really not even helpful. Then as we get into a Sunday, see some of the showers pull in, for example, a couple of the showers that are popping up here. So, every now and then we get some showers, but just not much. Look how dry that is. That's kind of crazy as we work our way all the way through the 31st. So, we're looking deep into next week, the end of next week. High pressure is so very dominant.

[00:07:25]So again, some of these fires that are ongoing now could spread further. I know the men and women fighting them are doing such a good job. That's definitely heroes work out there. Unfortunately, I wish I Unfortunately, I don't have any good news as far as significant rain to pass along. But know that behind the scenes, I'm trying to trying to see when we're going to get a better chance rain, of course I'll be letting you know. So, the drought in the areas worsens and again, thanks to that flash drought, which is kind of a weird almost sounds like a made-up term, but this is a term that's been around for years. It's just not often something that is talked about because usually drought is so gradual, but occasionally you just get popped into one, especially by that heat wave and we know how how bad that heat wave was in June. Fire threat staying high, that's going to continue. That's going to be spreading in spots. Dry areas staying mainly on the dry side, even where we get the rain doesn't help a lot and looking ahead and I'll put this out of my next video looking into August.

[00:08:20]There are some signs of a potential heat wave brewing. So, I'll be working on that behind the scenes put together a video for you on that next, of course.

[00:08:28]So, let me know how you're doing. Let me know if you are getting any rain in spots or how you're doing with some of the drought conditions. I'll be watching those comments as we go throughout the weekend. Be safe and have a good weekend ahead.