Can Hezbollah really be disarmed? | GZERO World

[00:00:00]People don't understand necessarily how much the Israeli people, the Lebanese people are experiencing these conflicts. And And so, here I understand you're saying that the Lebanese people are tired and they understand resistance is the way, but you've got resistance. They're armed, and they're more capable militarily even after all the Israeli strikes than the Lebanese government.

[00:00:24]>> I disagree with that.

[00:00:25]>> with that?

[00:00:26]>> I disagree. It's very easy for a group, a militant group like Hezbollah, to launch a drone or to throw a missile. It doesn't require much to destroy. It requires a lot more to build, right? And so, I think what we're saying at the moment, and what President Aoun is saying, what the Prime Minister of Lebanon is saying, Nawaf Salam, the best team possible at this junction for Lebanon. The best team that Lebanon has had in leadership in in decades, really, is we want to assert Lebanese sovereignty on the territory of Lebanon.

[00:01:01]We do not want an armed group to be operating as a state within a state. It has suffered substantial damage and setbacks over the last year and a half of war.

[00:01:12]Um it may still have weapons depots or some capacity. There are efforts to smuggle weapons into Lebanon, which are now being interdicted.

[00:01:21]But between interdicting weapons, between um stopping illicit flows of of money, between declaring some of their activities to be out uh to be outside of the law, as the Lebanese authorities have done. You know, the problem with some of this is that Israel has been made to be the last arbiter of when to redeploy or if Hezbollah has been disarmed or not. And that's why it's essential for Marco Rubio and President Trump to be involved in these discussion and put pressure on Benjamin Netanyahu, because the best way to secure that border is to have a strong Lebanese state on the other side.

[00:01:58]>> Sure, but my but my my follow-up question is irrespective of how strong Hezbollah is today and as we were discussing with the Islamic Republic, obviously damage has been done. Now, when you look at Hezbollah, um you have a group um that is uh that occupies a position of de facto authority. How do you change that? I mean, they still have leaders. They still have arms. How do you actually change that?

[00:02:28]>> W- What I'm saying is that they are not what they used to be a year and a half ago.

[00:02:33]>> that, but that doesn't mean that they don't exist. So, what do you do about it?

[00:02:36]>> You constrain their capacity to operate.

[00:02:39]You crowd them out. You demonstrate that diplomacy works and delivers for the Lebanese people in terms of aid, in terms of improved relations with uh with the US. When you have, in my assessment, up to 70% to Let's be you know, not as optimistic. Let's say 60%, 65% of the population that wants to of Lebanon that wants to move away from having a state within a state, I think you have to capitalize on that. It's not going to be an overnight solution the way that Israel envisages that you send in the army and, you know, they have a big fight and Hezbollah's disarmed. That is not how it's going to work. That's not how it worked um in other conflicts with the FARC or the IRA. And they're slightly different because at the end of the day >> need to be a direct part of any negotiated settlement in order for it to work? Leadership of Hezbollah.

[00:03:33]>> I think there are two ways of looking at that. You have to get them on uh on board or you have to constrain them.

[00:03:41]And so, I think the position of the Lebanese state is that they are the negotiating party. They are the state.

[00:03:48]>> Sure.

[00:03:49]>> they need to get Hezbollah uh to understand the new um um regional um outlook and the new rules in in Lebanon.

[00:03:58]>> don't need to agree to it. In other words, it's like you're saying you can do enough damage to them, so it doesn't really mind. Doesn't matter.

[00:04:04]>> No, you have to No, you have to convince uh certainly their supporters and the Shia community in Lebanon that they are part of this country and that they are being taken care of by by the state so that they no longer look to Hezbollah for education or hospitals and they look to the state and that requires a lot of international assistance to the Lebanese authorities and government.

[00:04:33]>> I'm wondering why we believe that near-term any agreement that doesn't directly involve Hezbollah saying, "Okay, we'll accept this." Is is actually going to work?

[00:04:45]>> It's going to be very difficult in the near term. I'm not saying this is uh on the schedule for for next months, but it has been a story that's ongoing for four decades and so you don't resolve that in a month or in one quick negotiation. I also think that part of the answer, as I said, lies in Tehran and how the Islamic Republic uh proceeds from here onwards.

[00:05:11]But some of it also lies in Lebanon and political negotiations inside Lebanon about what Hezbollah wants within Lebanon in return for agreeing to give up its weapons. Uh even if it won't say it out loud that it is giving up its weapons. There is a a fear uh within the Shia community that they will be the underdogs again if Hezbollah does not have uh arms at its disposal to defend the Shia community.

[00:05:46]You may argue with that thinking or that world view, but you cannot argue with fear.

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