INDIA REFUSES TO BECOME AMERICA S JUNIOR PARTNER I Aadi

[00:00:00]Has the India-US relationship changed for good?

[00:00:03]Is Trump just a messenger of the realities of tomorrow?

[00:00:07]These are questions that must be asked.

[00:00:08]Everybody blames the recent fracas between India and US to Trump. But is this a systemic thing?

[00:00:17]Namaskar, Jai Hind, Jai Bharat, and welcome to Def Talks. This is Adi Achint. You know, you one must look at a very, very basic, simple thing that Trump is only the messenger of the greater India-US relationship.

[00:00:29]Right? You may like him, you may you may not, and I am no fan of the guy.

[00:00:32]The growing friction between Delhi and Washington is dismissed as Trump's tantrums. Well, I don't think they are just Trump's tantrums. I think there are larger uh perception of what the, you know, the larger ecosystem in America is looking at. Both the Republicans and Democrats currently have joined together uh to fight against India's FCRA.

[00:00:53]They've actually issued statements.

[00:00:55]They've spoken about it in multiple forums. As a matter of fact, there was a written uh statement that was also given to Marco Rubio when he was on his visit to India.

[00:01:04]His own visit went to the uh Missionaries of Charity, which is which which we all know is connected to what all within the country.

[00:01:12]So, Trump may be delivering the message, but Washington's larger strategic establishment is increasingly agreeing with what Trump is doing.

[00:01:20]The old US-India bargain was that India will maintain its strategic autonomy, India will partially move closer to the US slowly and slowly, and of course with a defense technology and everything like that alive with the US in the Indo-Pacific. Slowly, slowly, slowly it'll happen. Both sides will cooperate on China and without, you know, of course a formal alliance, and of course both sides will keep their differences over Russia, Pakistan, and and stuff like that. And they just deal with it quietly and effectively, not bringing it out into the forefront to create a some some sort of a public fracas.

[00:01:56]But the formula worked to a certain extent, but then India of course started asserting itself. India as it grew required a lot more than a within the relationship and not just from America, but from the rest of the world as per its its growing demands. One of the biggest touch points actually came across with the Russia-Ukraine war where the Americans really thought that we would leave the Russians and basically rely on their side and stand with regards to the so-called sanctions that they were trying to do. And that kind of I think put them on the side where we refused to do something like that. Previously, they had an example where the where India had walked back on a certain amount of things as far as Iran is concerned and that you know those days India wasn't strong enough even to kind of start fighting America at that particular point of time. So they they they had that example that India has walked back on its commitments with Iran.

[00:02:45]They wanted to see if India would do that in terms of Russia as well and that of course was not going to happen. India was no longer receiving is not no longer receiving the China discount as they call it America is because one of the biggest things that we we see is that the Chinese basically you know influenced a lot of American policies as far as India is concerned.

[00:03:08]India you know looked at it from a very pragmatic perspective and that's something I'm I'm pretty happy about the foreign policy as far as that is concerned because the Americans wanted our Indo-Pacific policy to be interlinked with theirs rather than an independent policy where we are pursuing our own interests within the region and doing whatever we want to do as well rather than waiting for the Americans to come out and say something or do something and latch on behind behind to it.

[00:03:33]India's own relationship with Russia, India's own relationship with regards to Russian oil, military and all sorts of things were problem, but of course the the I won't call it the breakup, but of course the autonomous posture that India has shown in the Indo-Pacific is also one of the things that the Americans are not very happy about. The The American position is that India cannot be indefinitely asking for China discount on technology, defense, and everything like that while not aligning with India in terms of trade, agriculture, energy, and of course strategic interests within the region. The China factor can take you thus and no far. And that's that's something I guess a lot of uh um you know, a lot of uh a lot of us as analysts have understood that America will not be you know, support India as it did to China. And that's something that was said by the Deputy Secretary of State when he was doing a talk within in Delhi a few months ago.

[00:04:27]Trump's position is transactional, not entirely personal, you know, and a lot of the positioning that we are we are seeing is basically US trying to question its all older relationships with various different countries and Trump being in the forefront of it has taken up tariffs as as a main factor. He talks about what is America getting, what is what are the you know, who's buying the American goods, which the country has got lower tariffs, which country has its open market, who buys most of our defense, and so on and so forth.

[00:04:57]That is of course becoming the main battleground, which is trade, tariffs, agricultural access, dairy imports, the G you know, GMO sort of a thing, medical devices, data localization which they have a fit every time somebody mentions that, e-commerce, and all sorts of other things.

[00:05:12]But it's not just that, you know, I think one of the biggest red lines that is emerging is agriculture. India is not ready to budge at all with regards to its opening up of its agriculture and of course not ready to accept American agricultural products within the country for of course very obvious reasons of religiosity and religious uh you know, uh I won't call it a restrictions, but I'd call it religious sensitivities.

[00:05:38]Um we are not going to be using the GMO diet in vegetarians and you know, there's a whole whole thing that that happens in that. There's a whole negative perspective and it creates a whole lot of a social problem for India. So for Delhi it is connected connected directly towards not just livelihoods, but religiosity, livelihoods, you know, sensitivities and of course political elections and of course social stability. And nobody's going to accept that nonsense here.

[00:06:06]Russia is going to remain a main pressure point. Recently we've seen that the there are 60 60 70 senators who came out and put out a bill for about 100% tariff President Trump was talking about adding Iran into that bill so it would be the Russia Iran tariff bill where anybody who buys oil from Russia or Iran will be immediately liable for 100% tariff. Uh, let's see how that goes forward, but these are all pressure points which these people use to kind of create that pressure when they're talking to you that you know, we've got this bill.

[00:06:35]Uh, so 301 you will have uh, 20.5 tariff, then you know, we will put another 100% tariff on you so it will be 125% tariff. No, no, if you want to reduce this, all right, we'll reduce it to only 12.5. You do this for us. So they create these leverages themselves and then kind of act like they're backing off from it as a as a negotiation tactic. But I think the the biggest problem that India faces today is the new found Pakistani, uh, you know, friendship with the Donald Trump.

[00:07:03]And we know this is transactional, we know it is temporary, but at the end of it, uh, you are supporting a terrorist country which basically takes the lives of people within the country, which creates terrorism within the country, which has a lot of bad influence within not just our country, but the region as well. But America sees Pakistan primarily through the lens of, uh, you know, uh, uh, a a set of leadership which is basically ready to bend at any whim and fancy of America. So Washington is looking for more than India can give and that's something which is going to be a problem going forward. India cannot depend on personal chemistry anymore that because if the China discount could take you thus and no further, the personal chemistry will take you thus and no further as well.

[00:07:44]So, it's it's pretty much the same.

[00:07:46]India basically needs to diversify itself. There's no question about it.

[00:07:49]Build up a lot of domestic capability, strengthen the congressional out outreach because you can't really ignore the Americans. You need to have your word going through. That's not an issue at all. Uh which is somewhat happening but not really, you know, satisfactory if I may. Uh retain strategic autonomy and of course prepare for prolonged negotiations. Don't be in a rush to sign a deal.

[00:08:11]And I think uh what finally what I would say is Trump is merely what uh you know, merely saying loudly what the establishment actually thinks.

[00:08:19]But let me just say this that there is um scarcely any sort of a you know, a good lobby left in America which will uh specially after the SARA and other reforms that will come into the country which will actually start supporting you all in all sorts of um you know, sort of a in in the whole setup.

[00:08:38]But I think uh these are these are larger questions that that will need to be resolved within the within the country and uh the relationship with America, the relationship with uh you know, the relationship with not just America. Let me just broaden that out. The relationship with the West as per se is going to be more transactional, more um you know, pointed towards certain things rather than an overall relationship specially with uh the Atlantic is concerned. Europe may be a bit different but Europe has its own challenges with regards to wokery and the leftism and all sorts of other things that are spread around from there. So, they the West is going to have we're going to be having deepening relations activities which help us deepen our relationship but there's always going to be a caution that will be maintained in India.

[00:09:30]Thank you so much for watching. Please like, subscribe, and share this with your friends and families. And of course, if you can do support the channel as well. QR code or PayPal or super sticker, super chat is the way to do it and I'll see you back with another update. Till then, namaskar.