Houthis declare Saudi blockade as Iran war escalates | DW News

[00:00:00]Has the war in Iran entered a new, more dangerous phase? Now, so far, much of the attention has been centered on the blockade of the Strait of Homus. Now, Yemen's Houthi rebels who are backed by Iran say they'll obstruct another major shipping route in the region. Now to discuss why and the implications of this threat, I'll be speaking with Nadada Aldosari, Yemen analyst at the Middle East Institute and Barah Shiban, international security analyst with the Royal United Services Institute. Rousi, welcome to you both.

[00:00:37]Now before we get into the conversation, let's take a quick look at the map. As mentioned, the strait of Hmuz uh in off the Iranian coast has been the major focus in the USIsrael war against Iran for some months now. But to the southwest off Yemen's western coast is the Babel Mandeb straight, another shipping choke point. It's around 26 kilometers or 16 miles at its narrowest point. And that's where the Houthis want to impose a blockade which they say is targeting Saudi Arabia. Let's listen to the rebel spokesman.

[00:01:13]>> The Yemeni armed forces announced a maritime embargo against the criminal Saudi enemy based on the equation of a blockade for a blockade and it will enter into force effective immediately upon the issuance of this statement.

[00:01:27]We affirm the right of our great people to confront blockade with blockade and fullscale escalation with full-scale escalation and to establish this equation.

[00:01:37]>> All right, let's bring in our experts.

[00:01:39]Um, starting with you Bar, now the Houthies so far have been relatively quiet during this war. Can you sum this up for us and tell us why they are now getting involved?

[00:01:50]>> Um, I think the Houthies uh were basically uh waiting um until they are needed. um the um IRGC and the uh Iranian regime um is more or less anticipating uh a Trump more um um a more aggressive uh campaign by the Trump administration. So um a deterrence uh is needed right now. The question was always not uh if the Houthis are going to get involved, but rather when are they going to get involved and uh when does the um uh the uh the Iranians uh the Iranians need them and it looks like they need them right now the most for the Houthis in in order to make it uh to make an impact to make it loud they need to address this towards Saudi Arabia one of the US closest allies in the region and make an an an um a direct threat on the shipping lanes, on the uh oil production um and um and hopefully that could cause panic at the uh the oil market and we're all waiting to see what's going to happen uh tomorrow and uh and the days to come to the uh to the oil prices. Now, do I just bring want to get your thoughts as well as to the involvement of of Saudi Arabia in this?

[00:03:08]I mean, there are so many neighboring countries around, but they single out this one nation.

[00:03:15]>> Well, I think um this is not just about like Houthi Saudi confrontation. It's like Bar mentioned, it's one piece of Iran's broader regional strategy. So in the short term, what the Houthis and Iran are are or what the Harran wants is to work with the Houthis to create indirect leverage on the United States by raising the cost for a key US ally and Saudi Arabia is the largest US ally in the region. In my opinion, Yemen offers safe haven for the IRGC where they can continue to do work um in in you know with relative ease compared to like Iran. Um over the past years the Houthis with the help of Iran have expanded the reach across the one of Africa. They developed sophisticated smuggling networks. that established relationships with militant groups like al-Shabaab in Somalia, ISIS in Somalia, Somali pirates. Uh from Iran's perspective, that creates strategic infrastructure that can be leveraged over time. If Iran indeed succeeds in consolidating its position in Yemen, it won't simply be about projecting power.

[00:04:29]It will be about building long-term strategic leverage over the US and its allies. Um, so Yemen is not exactly a destination. Yemen is the platform. And I think that's what we need to focus about. Not just that the Houthis are creating a blockade. The blockade serves different reasons, but in my opinion, this long-term re reason or objective is what's absent from reporting and analysis.

[00:04:57]>> Interesting. Just picking up on that and going probably going back a bit to what you talked about Barra earlier uh that whether this is or rather how much of this is the Houthis uh acting in their own capacity versus being directed by Tehran.

[00:05:15]Um uh from now on I think it would be um quite um uh quite cynical to think about the Houthis just as a a separate um uh uh uh group away from the uh away from the IRGC. Now the RGC wants to leverage that relationship that it has built the networks the smuggling networks that Nad was uh was uh was was mentioning. Uh before uh the RGC relied so much on Hezbollah operatives, Hezbollah fighters coming in and outside of uh outside of Yemen. But now it is time for the RGC to start um uh uh using that uh uh using that leverage and start operating inside Yemen. Also, it has the advantage Yemen has a very difficult terrain. uh if the United States would think of attacking the Houthis, it would think multiple times, not just twice, before sending troops on the uh troops on the ground due to the difficulties that they would face inside um uh they would face inside Yemen. So there is there's multiple advantage uh points that the IRDC can leverage using the uh uh using the Houthis and now um that long established relationship the benefit that the Houthis have gained uh from um their relationship with with the RGC regarding their ability to proliferate drones um use ballistic missiles uh start attacking ships uh that was all enriched and and and supported with the help of the IRGC And now it's time for the RGC to start, you know, gaining um the reap of that um of that uh uh seeds of of of investment that they have laid for for uh for quite for quite many many years.

[00:07:01]And it's it's difficult for the before the IRGC would have have relied heavily on Hezbollah. Hezbollah right now are not at at an advantage point that they can that they can u that they can use that the ROC can uh can uh can use due to the uh multiple hits that they have received from Israel. But the Houthis on the other hand um are at the force that have um are enjoying uh relative um freedom of mobility. They can attack, they can threaten. And the only way that you can get and gain the US attention is if you start threatening Saudi Arabia.

[00:07:37]>> Um Nad we saw just picking up on that we saw I think it was um last year and the year before the US carrying out strikes on uh in Yemen.

[00:07:50]How much impact do you think that had on the Houthis and their ability to carry out this uh blockade that they're threatening?

[00:08:01]So tactically US air strikes might have disrupted the Houthi command and control uh it killed some operatives but it didn't largely degrade their capabilities because just a few weeks after the US ended the campaign the Houthi sank two ships in the Red Sea.

[00:08:21]They clearly still maintain capabilities that can threaten international shipping and and regional security. Um but long-term the Houthis have used the US um military strikes to reinforce their narrative that they are fighting a war on behalf of Muslims, Arabs, Yemenes against US imperialism. So they um they instrumentalized these air strikes to uh promote their propaganda which they use to recruit and gain credibility um across the region.

[00:09:02]>> So the short answer is I don't think that US air strikes have it might have disrupted the Houthis for a little while but it hasn't really changed much in terms of their capabilities.

[00:09:14]Right now, the the UN has uh expressed its concern over this latest development. Uh let's take a listen uh to what the spokesman for UN chief Antonio Gutes had to say.

[00:09:27]>> We've seen the reports and are very much concerned by the renewed Houthi threats against Saudi Arabia, against freedom of navigation, which uh leads to the risk of even wider regional escalation. We call for immediate deescalation. We urge all parties to address their differences through dialogue and diplomacy and reiterate that security council resolution 2722 and subsequent rel resolutions related uh to Houthi attacks against merchants and commercial vessels must be fully respected.

[00:10:01]>> I just come back to you Nadir. Um how do you think the Saudis will handle this?

[00:10:09]>> Now that's a a very big question. We don't know how the Saudis will handle this. The Saudis have showed a lot of patience with the Houthis over the years. Between 2017 and 22, the Houthis launched a thousand ballistic missiles and over 350 drones at Saudi infrastructure, including their main oil facility um in Ak um and the Saudis in 2021 started direct negotiations with the Houthis which led to the truce in 2022. So the Saudis have been trying to sort of bring this war to the end, talk to the Houthies, convince them to come to an agreement with the with the Yemen government. But at the end of the day, it's the Saudis who don't want to solve this conflict. They they keep escalating at every opportunity. Um I think at some point the Saudis will have to deal with this threat. And I don't know if that's going to happen now or a year from now or 5 years from now. But this is a threat that cannot be as proven time and again cannot be dealt with only through negotiations.

[00:11:19]>> Right. Bar I'll bring you back in. While back we saw what the Houthis did um to shipping in relation to uh the the Gaza war. just wondering what you think their blockade would look like right now if they were to if they were to go ahead with the threat.

[00:11:40]>> So um with the Houthis uh they always try to um continue developing their capabilities in terms of how uh their precision uh precision strikes their ability to hit uh targets more effectively. We saw this uh throughout the year the years um with with uh with their attacks on Saudi Arabia. It started with lone missiles fired here and there, but as time was was was moving, their ability to hit deep into Saudi Arabia and start really targeting key um uh uh infrastructure sites uh significantly improved. So uh with with the with the with the with the shipping attack they con constantly try to build on the capacity the ability to uh improve um in true you know their drones, their missiles um uh the um their kamicazi boats that are that uh that attack uh that attack uh ships. And um if if you're someone like me who you're talking to maritime experts uh all the time, anyone will tell you there is no force that can patrol the whole sea. Uh the yes, it's a it's a it's a sea problem, but at the core of the of the of the of the Houthi uh attacks, it's a land problem, and without addressing that, you will not be able to patrol the sea forever. And uh the coastline is still is still a huge uh portion of the western coast of Yemen is controlled by the Houthis and without addressing that uh the Red Sea is always going to be under threat.

[00:13:16]>> Right. And Nadua I'm just wondering as well do you see a scenario where this war is then fought on two fronts on the Strait of Homus as well as the Baband Strait. Do you do you see this kind of escalation um as as the ne as the future?

[00:13:34]I mean, I think if pressure continues on Iran, the Babel Mand card will have to be played. And I think that what we see today, the Houthis, first they're escalating rhetoric against Saudi Arabia and now announcing a blockade, a naval blockade against Saudi Arabia is part of this gradual escalation. And I think in time, if this pattern continues, we will see um a war. we will see the Babel Mandum front also used to um you know in the in the in the you know larger fight between Iran and the US.

[00:14:07]>> Okay. Yemen analysts Nadada Aldosari and Bar Shiban I'd like to thank you very much for your time and for the insights.

[00:14:17]>> Thank you.

[00:14:18]>> And what do you think will this Houthie move complicate a peace deal in the Iran war? And how will other regional players respond to a new naval blockade? Let us know in the comments. I'm Tommy Olado.

[00:14:31]See you next time.