Inside The Bunker | Trump's Iran Offensive Widens Conflict Across Gulf, Black Sea & Global Shipping

[00:00:05]Namaste and wand matram. Welcome to inside the bunker. I'm Aron Daruman and uh the one and only Tom Cooper, world's number one military historian is with us as we continue with our non-stop war coverage viewers. Uh Tom, always a pleasure to speak with you. There's plenty to discuss viewers. But first, let's get a check of the headlines because there has been a serious climb up the escalation ladder by both US and Iran. There's also an unfortunate incident that's happened in Odessa, bringing the spotlight back into the Russia UD Ukraine conflict and how the life of seafarers is greatly at risk as sea routes are now being blocked or choked as part of war strategy or as part of kinetic action. Let's take a quick check of the headlines here on the inside the here on inside the bunker.

[00:00:56]Nearly 100 US service members have suffered some serious uh level of injury mostly but uh in a lot of them minor injuries since the 7th of July and this is what Pentagon has now officially said.

[00:01:14]The US completed more strikes against Iran. The US military said late Monday, hours after President Donald Trump warned that Thran would pay for the deaths of three service members over the past few days, Iranian state media reported explosions in several locations.

[00:01:34]The US is increasing the number of fighter jets in the Middle East as Trump considers how to proceed further. An official said dozens of US fuelers have arrived in Israel in the recent days and are still incoming. an Israeli source said.

[00:01:51]So, the Middle East remains on edge as tensions between the United States and Iran escalate dramatically. According to the US Central Command, American forces intercepted what is called quote unquote unprovoked Iranian attacks involving missiles, drones, and small boats as three US destroyers transited the international sea passage. Sentcom has said no US assets were hit and that it responded with self-defense strikes targeting Iranian missiles and drone launch sites. Iran, however, claimed its forces caused quote significant damage and that the US vessels retreated, an account directly contradicted by Washington. This comes amid a broader escalation. Sentcom says it has now hit over 80 targets inside Iran, including air defense systems and IRGC boats in response to attacks on commercial vessels in the strait. And here's the fallout. Over 200 US personnel have been injured across seven nations since the war began and 13 US troops have been killed. A ceasefire brokered in April remains in place but with no deadline.

[00:02:52]And we've just got more news coming through. US has now struck Iran's bandas and Jahapa Chabahar ports after three soldiers were killed. Iran has hit Himar in Kuwait and in Bahrain. So there is serious escalation that we are witnessing. Tom uh both sides trying to climb up the escalation ladder but somewhere one gets the sense that America does not have a concrete plan.

[00:03:18]Um indeed uh anand uh it it looks like uh it looks like it's even more terrible. Essentially the situation is fundamentally different than back in in in let's say Febru February April.

[00:03:36]Tehran is now furious uh angry adjusted to a perpetual war and certainly it's at at advantage. Uh the the price of making peace with it now >> it's unimaginable to United States. Uh they cannot even think about accepting it. Uh because it would require releasing all the frozen assets uh paying for damage and similar. This is what the Iranians demand. And uh >> on top of this, this remains I have to to remind about this time and again whether one wants it or not. This remains an Israel controlled US Iranian conflict and and the United States have no control over Israel while Israel cannot tolerate uh any agreement leaving Iran in a stronger position than it was before the before the before this war.

[00:04:32]So but you have also one also gets the >> one also gets a yeah sorry please complete Tom and then yeah complete >> you have also people like Moaba like u bahidi motab is the supreme leader bahidi is the commander and chief of the IGC not to talk about Iraqi foreign minister and galibah speak of the parliament who are really so far outskilling so to say the US representatives that Vance, Rubio, Vitkov, Kushner, they are they are like kindergarten kids in comparison to them.

[00:05:09]>> So they are simply no match the Americans.

[00:05:11]>> That's that's the point I wanted to ask you know uh even as we take take our viewers through where are the ports and where they have actually hit. Let's try and understand that viewers. Uh they've hit these locations. They've hit the Chabahar port. So this is where uh attacks have happened. Chabahar and then further right on the street of Homus the next part uh that is Bandharabas that is again a very very critical spo critical port. So this is Chabahar and they continue to attack multiple points at the Chabahar port there must be something there strategic asset of the Iranians which is irking the Americans and and because the Americans are just further down. So this is Chabahar and this is almost at the mouth of the Gulf of Oman and the Americans are lodged here behind the hills and hiding behind the Omenian mountain ranges uh closer to somewhere uh where the Houthis could outflank them but that's further down but Chabahar is right at the mouth of the Gulf of Oman. So American assets moving in the Iranians will be using Chabahar and Konarak here to try and patrol this region. That's what the Iranians would be using. Are the are the Americans trying to target that because they've also attacked further up if we continue beyond Chabahar. Uh they have also attacked uh Bandhar Abbashar Abbas.

[00:06:28]So just going back to Tom Tom two parts one one is the Americans do they think that they have some strategic assets the Iranians at Chabahar by which they can patrol the Gulf and the mouth of the Gulf of Oman. The other part, the other part is should the Israelis have led this war rather than the Americans? Uh because the Israelis somehow seem to have a better understanding of Iranian capabilities than the Americans do.

[00:06:56]Uh the have no better understanding.

[00:06:59]That is the problem. They are both United States and Israel are led by people who are scammers who are well incompetent in political terms and military terms in particular who do not understand the real reality but refusing to accept it.

[00:07:15]>> Uh we have seen Israel trying last year in June we have seen Israel trying again and it didn't work.

[00:07:21]>> Back in 2022 there was an Israeli major Israeli military exercise.

[00:07:27]I think it was in 22 or 23, never mind.

[00:07:30]Uh, essentially in the first round of that exercise, they they trained Montlong missile and air strike campaign against Iran.

[00:07:38]>> Yeah.

[00:07:39]>> During the second second round of that exercise that they trained a similar campaign against Iran, but with support of the United States with involvement of the United States. M >> and during the third round of that campaign they about no details were released at all but essentially they started showing patches with nuclear mushrooms with mushrooms nuclear explosions.

[00:08:01]>> So this is now and now right now you have a lot of talk between US military uh veterans high ranking veterans and analysts discussing possible deployment of nuclear weapons against Iran.

[00:08:14]>> So it is moving in that direction right now.

[00:08:18]small tactical nukes. This kind of a conversation has happened for for some time that because that seems to be the only way that uh the White House and President Trump may have a way to pull out or move away from this uh from this war. Otherwise, they're going to be caught caught in this this this escalation trap. Some tactical nukes at some critical points. uh there is this conversation about assets being moved into the spax mountain. We'll try and get you uh more details on that and also speak to Tom Cooper uh on that. Uh what is Pax Mountain and where is this uh located and why this is critical and why there is it's causing a headache. We'll try and understand all that. But first, President Donald Trump, more news coming through. President Donald Trump has wowed to punish Iran for the deaths of US soldiers, saying Thran would pay quote many times over. His warning came on Monday, several hours after he had said that the latest US strikes that hit Iran very hard were in honor of the three American soldiers killed recently, two in Jordan and one in Iraq. Now, how hard can President Trump hit? Uh what is this whole aspect of using tactical nukes? Would they then attack some of those mountainous areas under which Iran seems to have now moved its entire set of assets be it missiles or nuclear uh uh cap you know the entire nuclear uh facility and uh the dust that they have gathered nuclear dust >> I'm I'm now orientating on Israeli reports in this regards essentially they are not 100% sure what is >> what is this installation they only know that it is deeper than anything Iranians have constructed before. And they guess that it is a uh a new facility for to to install the centrifuges necessary for uh enriching uranium >> converting it to plutonium. So they guess that this is some some kind of such facility and therefore they are recommending Americans or pushing the Americans actually not just recommending pushing the Americans because they feel they have the control over the United States >> over the US government they're pushing this government to deploy a nuclear tactical nuclear weapon against this facility.

[00:10:38]>> So in hope this is going to destroy it and then the Iranian nuclear program would be stopped. M >> the problem is that meanwhile the military situation is fundamentally different. The Americans have suffered heavy losses in MQ9 UAVs. Three have been shot down yesterday alone.

[00:10:55]Additional MQ9s have been destroyed on the ground which means that the Americans do not have have ever less eyes in the air over Iran. Uh similar MQ4 Titon these are even bigger UAVs they have been forced out of the area.

[00:11:10]They they they cannot be deployed in the Middle East anymore. They have to be deployed in Siggonella in the in Mediterranean in Italy.

[00:11:16]>> So they have to fly very long way to reach Iran which means they are flying very few sorties with such assets and therefore see ever less what is going on in Iran in Iran. This is why this why SenCom is then targeting bridges, infrastructure, civilian ports and so on in order to to to I told it last week several times you know in order to look busy and everything is fine and they that explosions and and the America America is doing great actually >> they have lost they have lost radars they have lost air defenses meanwhile they're losing maintenance and and supplies in the Middle East the entire campaign of the of US armed forces is actually slowing down and experiencing ever bigger problems just enriching Iran, >> right?

[00:12:02]>> Not to talk about targeting something specific over there and and he also doesn't have too much of time. He doesn't seem to have the luxury of time because before August he needs to get out of this if he needs to salvage anything ahead of the November midterms because there will have to be certain amount of passage of time and something different where Trump can change the entire mood around him and also try and show that he still remains a winner. So will there be tactical nukes that will be pressed into service especially around targeting and totally decimating the Iranian military nuclear facilities the centrifuges and where they where the Israelis believe that this has been kept so that and will that then perhaps weaken the Iranian resolve or the IRGC's resolve? We'll have to wait and watch but even as we speak the marine traffic at the in within the straight of Hormuz is being severely affected. A tanker has now been hit by a projectile in the straight of Hormus.

[00:12:56]We've just got pictures of the same where uh according to the UK Maritime Trade Operations or the UK MTO center, a tanker has been hit. The incident has actually taken place 8 nautical miles northeast of Lima, Oman. And this was reported around 410 p.m. Eastern time on Monday. And I'm quoting the report.

[00:13:19]Vessels are advised to transit with caution and report any suspicious activity to UK MTO. The British shipping monitor has said in its report and earlier UK MTO reported that two vessels were struck on Sunday by projectiles off the coasts of Oman and the UAE. UK MTO is monitoring the Persian shipping uh uh the shipping in the Persian Gulf, northern Indian Ocean and the Red Sea.

[00:13:43]And the center has received a growing number of emergency calls since the outbreak of war or conflict with Iran late February. Now this again means Lima or Oman. Uh we don't have the uh access to the map otherwise we would have shown to you viewers today but uh Tom Cooper can explain to us this is the US passage vessels that are perhaps traveling uh Tom via the US created passage in the straight of Hormuz. They are the ones that are being targeted. Sentcom has in cooperation with Oman created a an alternative route to the >> state of Hormus which is leading uh or sadan route if you like which is leading along the Omani or through the Omani territorial waters.

[00:14:30]>> They're repeatedly pushing uh civilian owners to use this route. The majority is refusing to do so but some do. And when they do then the Iranians strike on them. Why? Because Iranians say and this is I I I have to agree with them because the paragraph five of the memorandum of your understanding United States signed in June >> was clearly assigning the responsibility for for civilian traffic in the state of Horus to Iran.

[00:14:58]>> So therefore Iranians are claiming for themselves we have the right and you have no right. H >> what is more important even more important excuse me >> keep in mind that until now until the strikes in in starting with 7 to 8 of July the Iranians are using relatively light UAV UAVs to target tankers. Yeah.

[00:15:19]>> Meanwhile they they're using heavy anti-hship missiles which are actually made to to knock out warships.

[00:15:27]>> So these missiles are causing as you can see massive damage to to to civilian merchants and tankers. Yeah.

[00:15:33]>> Uh yes, they they're they're striking usually under their super superru superructure which means under the the bridge under the living block into the mach machinery spaces causing uh damage causing fire of the fuel.

[00:15:49]>> Yeah.

[00:15:49]>> Of the ship's own fuel powering the ship and then you see such such huge plumes of smoke and and fire as a result and there are also casualties between the crew.

[00:15:59]>> Right. And I mean in in >> so they are the so the the path that the Americans have carved is closer to the Omanian side. It's not the deeper waters but still vessels were trying to move out of there. The Iranians are saying we control the strait. You don't try and take another route. If you do that we will continue to attack. And these are merchant vessels. We have seafarers.

[00:16:23]Some of them are also of India Indian descent or Indians Indian origin. and a lot of them and we have lost seafarers there. But we've got more news. It's not just the state of Hormuz. Now the Iranbacked Houthi group in Yemen has declared its own maritime blockade on Saudi shipping. An escalation that could reignite yet another dominant regional conflict and threatened global oil supplies. The Houthis, one of Iran's principal allies in the region, have long warned that they could take action to block the Babal Mandabra as a choke point at the southern end of the Red Sea. The closure of the strategic waterway could significantly disrupt global trade and further uh spoil the entire oil markets.

[00:17:07]Tom, this is again the Gulf of Aiden southern part. The Houthis control that Babal Mande is actually a narrower stretch than the straight of Hormuz and they are saying they're going to target Saudi shipping specifically Saudi shipping. Now this this began with Saudis attempting to block the movement of Iranian airliners to and from Sana from the airport of of uh Yemeni capital.

[00:17:34]>> Now the problem is that particularly in the west that Houthis are still underestimated as some kind of rebel group or whatever but they are in control over northern Yemen and they are they have established their state over there. So >> uh they are importing all the time weaponry and parts for missiles, cruise missiles for ballistic missiles from Iran.

[00:17:58]>> The RGC is happy to supply them and regardless of all the possible uh western and particular expectations that IC is going to run out of missiles and parts for missiles. Obviously they have enough to to share with Houthis. So now when one of these Iranian ainers attempted to fly Houthy delegation to to the burial of Supreme Leader Kam, the Saudis attempted to block it to to to force it down.

[00:18:26]>> The aircraft threw out. Then the Saudis targeted Sana International with storm shadow missiles. In response in response for to this, Houthis fired multiple ballistic missiles at Abha International in Saudi Arabia. Now when the Saudis attempted again to intercept one of of airliners who said okay you are imposing blockade upon us therefore we are imposing blockade up on you >> and this is not the situation. So they currently have they have establish they have not established they do not really control the the Saudi coast. Saudi coast of the Red Sea is very long. Correct.

[00:19:00]>> But they have announced a blockade of Saudi coast which means they have the right or they claim the right to to target whatever shipping is underway along the Saudi coast in the Red Sea.

[00:19:10]>> And they have specifically said Saudi shipping. That's what they have said.

[00:19:13]We've just got very limited time. Just want to bring attention of our viewers and Tom onto another development away from the street of Hammud or the Babal Mandep up further up north. It's in Odessa in in Ukraine. Viewers, four Indian nationals have been killed after a cargo vessel MV Golden Leo was struck while leaving Ukraine's Odessa port amid Russia Ukraine conflict and UK Ukraine has said the ship was hit by three Russian cruise missiles. While Bharat has strongly condemned the attack, calling the targeting of commercial shipping and civilian crew deplorable and the MEA has summoned the Russian charge to affairs over the missile strike that killed four Indian seafarers and critically injured another seeking an explanation from Moscow. Ukraine's foreign minister has accused Moscow waging maritime terror and deliberately targeting civilian vessels, urging greater international pressure on Russia. Meanwhile, Kerala Chief Minister Pindra Vijan has expressed grief over the death of the 26-year-old seaf farer Akil Joy from Kaser and directed Norca roots uh to actually coordinate with the ministry of external affairs and Russian consulate to extend all possible assistance to try and um help the Bir family. Bhat has also summoned the Russian charged affairs or CDA after Russian missile strike on the merchant vessel. Now Tom, is this going to become the new playbook? Is everybody going to now use commercial shipping, commercial routes and to try and block them and target merchant vessels to try and up it up the level of kinetic action or as part of war strategy because that's what the strait of Hormu seems to have opened >> options for other nations.

[00:20:54]We we see this already since 1980. So whenever there is a war nearby and one of the involved parties have a major interest in in maritime traffic.

[00:21:03]Somebody's trying to exercise uh influence upon that maritime traffic. We have seen this in the 1980s during the Iran Iraq war when Iraq was targeting whatever shipping was underway along the Iranian coast. Nowadays we see this for example Greek owners are sending their ships to export Russian oil and gas mostly bought by by by India by the way and then exported to customers abroad and therefore the west has interest in in curbing this activity.

[00:21:31]>> And in the Black Sea we have uh uh Ukrainians attacking uh Russian ships which are pulling oil from from from within Russia. Two such ships which are exporting them abroad. They they have hit over 100 such ships in the last 10 days. And we have Russians trying to curb the the Ukrainian exports of wheat and other and cereals and similar generally food exports can one can summarize it as such >> uh flowing from Odessa and from >> port. So, so the Russians were trying and if you look at the Odessa map, the map of Odessa viewers in the in the Black Sea. The Russians uh actually had moved to try and annex Crimea which is also access to the Black Sea and they did this in 2014. This is the location and in Black Sea like Tom Tom Cooper was saying the Ukrainians tried to attack Russian oil ships. So in response there are three the MB golden Leo was hit by three Russian cruise missiles. the casualties including 10 four uh uh 10 casualties that includes four Bharti sailors and this has happened here because now this is the Russian response to Ukrainian offense. Tom Cooper, thank you very much. We've run out of time on this edition of uh inside the bunker, but we will have another one later this evening at 17:30 hours, so see you with more at that time. Thank you.