ILTV INSIDER | TIME TO `WIPE OUT’ IRAN REGIME?

[00:00:00]We have to leave job to the Iranian people for the regime change. This is not my job. This is not the US job. This is not the Israelis job. If anyone really believes that diplomacy um going [music] on um is going to uh bring a resolution of of this um and it we're just not going to be deja vu doing this over and over again. And that Iran uh [music] will control the straits of Ramuz. This is this cannot stand.

[00:00:37]Welcome to ILV Insider. I'm Khalib Bended. Now, just last month, President Trump was claiming regime change had already happened in Iran and he was now dealing with reasonable people who could make a deal. But as the ceasefire has broken down and Iran has stepped up its attacks on its Gulf neighbors and on shipping in the straight of Hormuz, that tone has changed. Trump now calls Iran's leaders scum and sick people. And he is threatening to wipe them out. But while the US military has widened its air strikes on nuclear facilities and some infrastructure, this after Iranian attacks that killed three American soldiers, the US has yet to strike directly at Iran's leadership or use troops to seize vital energy resources.

[00:01:24]It is is it time now for the US to go allin on toppling Iran's leadership or should it make another attempt at negotiations amid reports of renewed mediation efforts by Pakistan? And is real regime change in Iran even possible at this point given some recent revelations over previous failed attempts to do just that? Well, to discuss these questions and more, we're joined by Chamilleia and Tech Habard.

[00:01:50]She is the editor-in chief of the independent Persian and Dr. Dr. Eric Mandal, the founder and director of the of the Meepen Institute. Uh, Chamilleia, Eric, thank you for joining us. Camille, I want to start with you because just in the last couple of days, we have reports of uh Pakist of of Iranian officials going to Pakistan to speak with mediators, some remarks by some Iranian officials talking about possible return to diplomacy. Are we seeing some sort of change here among the Iranian leadership or is it just more of a sort of stalling efforts we've seen in the past?

[00:02:25]>> Thank you very much for hosting me.

[00:02:27]Greetings to you, to the viewers and to Dr. Mandel. Definitely they want to pursue the diplomacy war is not in the favor of the Iranians at all. And I meant here the regime and the Iranian public too. We are seeing a sentiments of anti-war strongly among of the ordinary Iranian inside Iran sending messages disappointed by President Trump for uh restoring the war again. And at the same time for the regime uh the war with the United States it is maybe more in their favor than the fears of Iranian uprising again due to the bad economy due to the way they are managing the daily lives of the Iranians. In order to tackle this problem they need to make peace with the US. However they love the war but they were threatened by the Iranian from the inside.

[00:03:24]And if this war unleashed and becomes more um more bigger or they would President Trump decided to attack more areas inside Iran. Finally, the diplomacy definitely here would uh play a role because not only Iran also the US is not ready for unleashed a very big war like the 40 days in March and more importantly at the region. No one supporting any new war for any reason and by any cause. As much as everyone hates the regime, Iranian hates the regime, but no one wants to see their life would be on hold because of this uh war. Um I can see that from Saudi Arabia even to Oman and Qatar the UAE no one were supporting the war and everyone asking for the peace. So, President Trump here is probably a little bit squeezed between some people at in in Washington DC asking him to continue the war and from his regional allies which they are not favoring the war at all.

[00:04:36]The mediators were not being so much strong at the previous time and maybe now more heavyweight mediator needs to be guaranteed this if there would be another round of the peace talks between Iran and the US.

[00:04:50]>> Well uh Eric there are people who like uh Camila said who want to see the war not only just continue but intensify.

[00:04:57]President Trump himself has made some comments like I said he was talking about of wiping out the Iranian regime.

[00:05:03]We have not seen the US uh talk like I said targeting Iranian leaders as Israel as it did earlier in the war. We haven't seen uh moves to really seize uh vital energy assets. I mean do you agree maybe now is the time for give diplomacy another chance or should the campaign really be stepped up and intensified against a regime that is maybe not willing to compromise?

[00:05:27]>> So first of all, thank you for having us. Um, I think we need to differentiate a couple of things here. The Iranian people overwhelmingly want regime change. There was a leaked internal Iranian government assessment that concluded, and there's been multiple leaks that have happened over time, that over 90% of Iranians want the Islamic Republic gone. But we cannot confuse the Iranians wanting the strikes to stop from them wanting regime change. And I was polling my friends and my colleagues at Iran International where they were saying it's probably as best as a guess 5050 whether they want the strikes to continue or not. And the reason they don't the group that does not want strikes to continue is because they believe the United States is not committed to what they need which would be a regime change. Um and so that is part of the issue. I don't think Camille I don't think there's disagreement uh among those who are waging this war about whether uh there should be regime change and there's certainly unity 90% you said of the Iranian people probably if the perhaps even more want to see the regime change but there is perhaps disagreement about some of the tactics used for example whether the strikes should be expanded to striking civilian infrastructure in Iran uh targets uh that could uh uh unfortun that would cause economic damage to the regime, increase the unrest, but would certainly in the short term prevent difficulties for the Iranian people and this has been an argument throughout the war that seems now have reached a critical point about whether whether this should take place. I mean, how do you how do you stand on that? Mhm. Mhm. uh Khalif to be honest with you if the war hasn't start in u early March Iranian would making their own rise again to change the regime and we remember before the war again a new kind of the demonstration starts forming in the universities in Iran and right after that the strike happened and killed Ayat Iran is not a country by bombardment uh by attacking infrastructure or civilians, politicians, anyone can make the regime change. I was in your program during the war and definitely you have the audios available. I said that um Iranian would not support the war maybe.

[00:07:51]Yes, the first couple of days some people felt when has been killed that would be some sort of help. They don't know what kind of help it is that an American making the regime change that hasn't happened and it was a severe bombardment. I have families friend the the whole my people I knows in Iran during these 10 days of the blackout all of us suffered Iranian suffered us outside of Iran suffered and we saw that not nothing changed and as Dr. Mandel said today we are seeing the capital punishment is underway for the Iranians who has been performed or has has been taking parts at the demonstrations in January because when a country is in emergency uh situation security problem and has been threatened by enemy at that time taking revenge for its oppositions and this savages regime taking the opportunity ities to use the capital punishment to make to spread fears among of the Iranian for any future uprising they can see how they can get punished. Diplomacy is the best way for for this regime. Now at this stage after we witnesses 40 days of war the uprising we have to leave job to the Iranian people for the regime change. This is not my job. This is not the US job. This is not the Israelis job. This is Iranian job.

[00:09:24]>> Can I can I just ask you that Chamilleia? I'm sorry. Specifically, for example, that report about replacing Akmadina Jad, uh using him to replace the Iranian leadership, one element of that was arming the Kurdish rebels supposedly uh which was ultimately vetoed by President Trump. Uh is that the kind of thing you see as being not effective or misguided?

[00:09:49]>> Uh this report of New York Times, it was a might and absolutely baseless. I encourage you to read my own article about the New York Times report on Ahmed. New York Times like so many other medias lost their credibility to many audiences. This this paper is not the paper we were have the real sources. We we believe and the sources were telling the truth. Now it's tools uh for some peoples inside Iran to infilter the news they like published at the New York Times and base lace with other sources.

[00:10:28]Ahmed wasn't an Israeli agent. It's so much clear and they try to plot against him in case if this man has a chances in the future of Iran now to be arrested by the revolutionary guards or assassinated even before having chances. I'm not supporting him. I'm not talking about him. I'm talking about this baseless general report about Ahmed by New York Times. The whoever Iranian wish for that person can be anyone. It can be prince resi which we saw how strongly millions of Iranian at the street asking him to return that can behad if there is election and that is a fair election and he would be chosen okay why not that why I'm telling you we have to leave it to the Iranian to decide who is their next leader as much as people were interfering at Iranian internal policies we would get opposite way results and the revolutionary guards become more aggressive, the punishment on Iranian becomes more aggressive and the result is a chaotic situation which it wouldn't help not Iranians, not the regional country, not the United States, >> right? Uh Eric, I want to go back to this talk of uh again uh Chamilleia saying at this stage diplomacy seems to is is should be given a chance, but should the US be willing to go back just to the po which is what it seems the Iran Iran at this point would like to see the regime to simply go back to the point where it broken off where you have this 21 point which clearly was flawed which clearly gave Iran some kind of opening uh to uh assert its will in the straight of form moves. Is that can the you can President Trump in a sense go back to that point?

[00:12:21]>> No. Um the memorandum of understanding is a document that might as well have been written by Iran. It didn't deal with nuclear ballistic missiles, terror proxies, um or the abuse of the Iranian people. Um I think uh it it is an illusion to believe that the Iranians are going to the Iranian regime, not the Iranian people, the Iranian regime is going to adhere to almost anything it sides. Um it it basically practices um religiously approved um uh dissimilation which is lying. Um I know this because all you have to do is just look at history. You look at the JCPOA. You look at what has gone on again and again and again. And if anyone really believes that diplomacy um going on um is going to uh bring a resolution of of this um and it we're just not going to be deja vu doing this over and over again and that Iran uh will control the straits of Hormuz. This is this cannot stand. Um America, let's just start with the Straits of Hormuz must forcefully reopen the Straits of Hormuz because it's an international waterway. Ever since um the Barbarie pirates and the time of Jefferson, freedom of seas has been something America has made sure works.

[00:13:37]It's what keeps the world order going.

[00:13:40]And as far as dealing with what goes on, I agree this is up to the Iranian people, but we have not been there for the Iranian people, whether it's supporting communications, logistics, and yes, um you know, arming. There has been game playing g game planning for decades about how to support Iran and Iranian people are very diverse. We're talking about maybe almost 50% of the people being non-Persian and Kurds are 10% and there is a zaris that are 33% and Turks and Lors and Baluks and besides the majority of the Persian people as from my friends in Iran International that say overwhelmingly would like this regime gone but to think that this regime is going to change by diplomatic actions and knowing that America is going to change its focus down the road um is not a good thing.

[00:14:28]This is a situation um that we are whether we should or should not have been here from attacking um going what we did starting in June and then again starting on January in February 28th again um we are here and it is something for American national security interests not to leave the regime in place but that is also on a valuebased foreign policy to be with the Iranian people.

[00:14:54]Well, I understand. I don't see there's disagreement necessarily that you both want to be with the Iranian people, but maybe there again there is some tactical differences here in terms of for example >> tactical [clears throat] difference.

[00:15:07]>> Well, go ahead. I'm going to let you respond. T >> usually believe that the Iranian regime uh Vahiti if he's the one calling the shots um or any and because I don't differentiate there are so many different types of violence. Do you really believe that diplomacy is going to help the Iranian people is going to resolve this issue? Um that the Iranians want to resolve this issue or their or their act or the acts of oppression the Chinese, Russians, North Koreans are going to >> Well, let's let's let Chamilleia respond. I think she understands the question.

[00:15:40]>> Dr. Mandel sure what Iranian have to do if they are not willing anyone interfere at their business. If they are not willing for the bombardment hasn't resumed in Thran. Uh you are not living in Iran. I do not live in Thran. But my families, my friends, my people were living in Iran and they don't want to be under bombardment. They don't want anyone take decision for them. And also uh Iran is a country formed before anywhere at this planet exist. and our people from as you said c to lure baluch toran we are living together as one nation over than 3,000 years we don't have a ethnic called persian as you said we are all Iranian and Persian doesn't mean anything by ethnics all of us we speak one language to can communicate and this is Persian like in Israel people speak Hebrew or in the US we speak English to communicate but you have a Spanish you have other ethnicities is also they see it self American Iran is that kind of nations and speaking like people get armed enter from north enter from south this is a separatist idea which it's horribel and no one supporting it not inside Iran not in my knowledge anyone outside Iran in the region and you said President Trump by forces has to open a straight of foremost please kindly as a strategy elaborate that to us what kind of forces he can use to open a straight of hormones. Does it means a thousands of Iranian living in in the coastline of the Persian Gulf and a straight of hormones has to be killed that has be opened by force? Okay, let's say President Trump can seize all of the Iranian islands, all the coastline, send American troops. But then do you think they would be safe? No. The regime can attack from anywhere inside Iran by missiles and by drones the American troops and plus taking and taking this one thing by force holding a different story. Uh the Persian Gulf in the deepest part of this water have 15 meters deep which is not enough for any navy ships can sail inside. So American cannot have the navy ships to protect what they have been occupied and even let's say any ships gets close to this area and if attack and sank at the water there would be no more insurance for any ships to cross let's see if a lot has an answer for that.

[00:18:18]>> You just have to look at history. Um the Iranians have been trying to close this race of moves many times. We can go to operation praying mantis back during the Iran Iraq war. American soldiers.

[00:18:29]>> Yes. Geography gives them the opportunity.

[00:18:32]>> Let me and we can and we have strategized for decades of how to open it up. Um and American ships certainly can transit um through the straits of Hormuz um certainly through the central and the corridor uh closest to Oman.

[00:18:49]Basically um we cannot allow for the world order to allow the Straits of Amuse an international waterway to come under the um control of the world's leading state sponsor of terror and for American >> Dr. mandate suggest a world I let you American national security interests also know that if we allow the straits of Hormuz to be closed or under Iranian control that will increase our chances of a major conflict with China because the Chinese are watching of what they're going to determine with the straits of Taiwan and to because they want to take control there and there's also the straits of Maluca and there's also right now going on Abel Manddev where the Iranians are trying to close the Red Sea um and the Saudi um exports.

[00:19:38]This is not an American choice. We cannot accommodate an authoritarian regime that is not only oppressing their people but is interfering um with free nations freedom of navigation. So if you're saying that America cannot do this, we can. The question is do we have the will to do this? And I don't think we have the choice at this point of time, but to allow the Iranians to control this um that it cannot be a choice.

[00:20:06]>> Okay, I we are running out of time. Let me give you each uh yes, a short response to to what you were suggesting.

[00:20:13]Yes, America is the superpower. There is no one like America can does everything at this planet. But what you are suggesting by all these forces you are speaking you are talking about the world war and we have to think the world has other people too. They have all these countries around of the Persian Gulf.

[00:20:31]Have they were supporting the idea that this war inflame all the region and burn from Saudi to Kov to Bahrain because America wants to state of foremost and question one. The state of horos was open. Iran and the US were fighting over Iran nuclear program enrichment.

[00:20:50]Correct. Let's we tackle the problem first. The state of hormones would naturally be open like before. Now we have to understand the problem is no one is supporting the war and diplomacy is best to serve Americans. I am American too. for the Iranians. I am Iranian also and for the regional countries. When the state of is open, then they can talk about nuclear program and the horrible which is torturing Iranian.

[00:21:20]>> Eric, you get a last response.

[00:21:22]>> The Gulf neighbor, the Gulf neighbors do not want Iran um to control this. They do not want to be intimidated by the Iranians and to be left. What they fear is that America will abandon them. And what a what an advancement for America that I'd advocate and people have talked about is for America really to help step up and to create defense packs um with our Gulf allied nations. But there's nobody in the region there, not the Binis, not the Omanis, not the Saudis who want the Iranians to be in control.

[00:21:54]Iran wants to intimidate its neighbors.

[00:21:56]It's expansionistic. It's hegemonic. Um it still has its eyes on Mecca and Medina and Saudi Arabia. Um there's gets back to the Shiite Sunni kind of war. Um this can't stand as it is. Um and I again I didn't say there are any easy answers here, but the pre um war beginning um was a situation where the straits were relatively open. The Iranians have made it clear they are not going to let um this uh way be open and the economic blockade the United States has put in can hopefully collapse the regime from it within economically.

[00:22:32]>> All right. Well, we'll have to leave it at that. I think we the you both agree the goal freedom for the Iranian people how to reach that point that is of course a discussion. Chameleia and Tech Habar Dr. Eric Mandel. Uh, thank you for joining us on ILV Insider and be sure to subscribe to ILV so you don't miss an episode and of course catch us live on screen IIL. I'm KB Devi. Thanks for watching. We'll see you next time on Insider.