US in the Gulf: Degrade Iran or Disrupt Energy Flow or A Forever War? •

[00:00:02]Namaskar. Good morning India. And joining me is General Shankar. And we talk about a very important topic, the future of Gulf. What exactly is United States trying to do with it? Let's welcome General Shankar. Namaskar sir.

[00:00:14]How are you?

[00:00:15]>> Namaskar. Thanks a lot. Good morning India. Right. And it's nice to see Shria G in a bright shirt, you know, US stripes with a white backdrop. Let's let's get going. Iran has got all the masala for us to talk about >> sir.

[00:00:33]>> Yeah. Uh look what is the US endgame in the Gulf? That's what we were to discuss today. Is it to degrade Iran or is to control energy flow or is it a mix of both you know we've never been clear about it but then you know there certain questions which came to my mind you know when uh actually this topic we were to do day before yesterday or day before that uh when that you know Vikram one took off and I said we must speak of uh our achievement in face.

[00:01:09]So then I yesterday I told uh you know free I said look you put up a def terrific topic we must discuss it instead of anything else and he's made me think I'm thankful to him.

[00:01:23]So what is the end game?

[00:01:26]Uh Iran was hit badly in 2025. It was at best a benign problem early this year.

[00:01:35]They were in a they were in an economic mess. They were hardly in a state where they could attack Israel or anyone and they had a leader who was I think fundamentally now in retrospective on hindsight you know he didn't want war the way it was the poor man has gone up and above over 80.

[00:01:57]Uh right so then why did why did USA go to war? That's a question which I've been asking myself.

[00:02:05]So well one way of looking at it is hitting Iran removes the threat to Israel and this death to America the great Saturn which has been the chant of uh Iranians for a long time Iranian leaders a lot of it is rhetoric of course there is a problem between Iran and USA not from now from 79 onwards it is the way I look at the Iran USA relationship ship over the years is something like a longd distance India and Pakistan relationship. You see if India and Pak if Iran and USA were neighbors they would have killed each other by by now. I mean I have no doubt about it whatever right? Or the other way of looking at it is USA in you know uh attacking Iran will increase US hold over the Gulf and its resources.

[00:03:00]You have to see it in the backdrop of two events. You know, everyone talks of Venezuela. There's a backdrop of uh Syria.

[00:03:09]You know, last year sometime that Al Jolani he was brought in Syria was destabilized or whatever it is not year two back and then US you know established him and kicked Russia away. when they threw Russia away from uh Syria a collateral was China was kicked out when Bashar al- Sadas Assad was kicked out.

[00:03:36]So if you see there's a you know is it that whole story going ahead then of course then they kept China out of Venezuela and Trump felt this the right time for global domination but then there's a problem in Iran they lacked Alulani or Deli who could do their trick bend thing in Iran so somewhere they missed a trick you know I at best I would call it is there a grand strategy there might be a grand strategy but I think there's a equally a good case of a poor end ways and means planning that's what everyone says in management jargon in management jargon it is called end ways and means that's what people talk in military jargon it is called selection and maintenance of aim I mean I get back to my story which I've been harping on from day one. What is selection and maintenance of aim is the most important you know uh thing in war.

[00:04:44]People might not believe it. I agree. I swear by it old-timer it was it took me 4 months to understand you know not understand to get this management jargon ends ways and means and I'm now conflating it with that whole thing and many times suddenly you realize doing things the old way is probably the better thing your view sir and then I'll move ahead because then I'll get into something else.

[00:05:10]Yes indeed. So what we are also going to be looking at is what is happening in Iraq. Iraq was solidly in United States corner. But United States in facing all these problems in the Gulf of Hormuz has actually now what has happened is recently the Iraqi prime minister who was supposed to be a handpicked Iranian person or Iranian preference. He came to United States and Iraq has signed three important deals with three big oil companies. Chevron, Konoo Phillips and British Petroleum.

[00:05:46]And they're going to take the oil of Iraq not through the Hormu straight but through Mediterranean and and they're very confident that that pipeline can be laid in double quick time. So suddenly Iraq could you know free itself out from the grip of Iran because of the Shia Shia connection. So you are seeing US doing some other things also. I just thought I'll mention this so that if it is already complex you have to work this one also. Uh but at the same time you know it means that Iran's strength comes from the fact that it can control the Gulf oil coming out of there. And if Saudi Arabia goes one way, Oman goes another way, uh, UAE finds Hujera and pumps things, who is left? Only Iran and Kuwait and Bahin and they'll find something too. Sir, back to you.

[00:06:39]>> Yeah, thank you. So, you actually described what's the end game. The end game is a massive split, confusion, and it's going to continue.

[00:06:48]>> Actually, it's going to continue. And you know this is a very nice article in uh New York Times. I'm a fan of New York Times. I make no bones about it because I felt I feel they get the best uh uh you know facts out and the most thoughtful articles. I don't find it anywhere else. Uh in fact I have a full-time subscription for it. I pay anyway that's not a issue. Uh look this article tells a lot. Thran and Washington face a may wake up moment over the war. It is only not Thran and Washington. It is the whole world. We have woken up. We are every day waking up to something stupid happening.

[00:07:35]It's okay to have a animosity between two countries to fight all that right. It is not only Thran and Washington which are uh you know facing a wakeup moment. It is also Russia Ukraine. It is also EU. It is also China.

[00:07:53]Let me tell you the whole story is going south.

[00:07:58]We heading towards global south very fast.

[00:08:02]I mean I'm am I giving a doomsday scenario? I don't think people in America are very happy about this war.

[00:08:08]They've said this in as many words and it it actually surprises me that a thing like Pew Research which is a completely American system comes out and says Zinping is more uh what shall I say um popular than uh Trump.

[00:08:31]So there's something going on. That's what I want to put across to everyone.

[00:08:35]Okay. Uh and then you know overnight I would say overnight if you map the Iranian strikes where have they hit they've hit Jordan they've hit Kuwait they've hit Bahin they've hit Qatar they've generally avoided uh you know uh UAE and uh this place Saudis >> Saudi >> but now yeah now they're coming in let me get to that this is not this is where Iran is focusing. They're hitting the military bases there, the small ones.

[00:09:11]But I don't know why they are doing it again because these four countries will never get out of the U, you know, US umbrella.

[00:09:24]So what is Zan up to? I don't know. I mean, really speaking, I don't know. Of course, is it only tit for tat? I don't know. But what are they doing with all these four countries? And these four countries give political uh mileage.

[00:09:38]They have political capability. I mean I won't say political weight and they got money.

[00:09:45]Uh and that will all go against Iran. So is it a self-inflicted injury right now?

[00:09:56]Iran has instigated Houthis to expand the conflict with the and they put in a blockade on the Red Sea.

[00:10:05]Look at the crowds in Yemen backing how not a joke huge.

[00:10:16]So this is a popular sentiment.

[00:10:18]And what are the howies fighting for?

[00:10:20]They're fighting against Saudis.

[00:10:22]So what is happening now? Saudis have declared a maritime blockade on Saudi Arabia.

[00:10:30]So Babal Mandab is closed. Straight of Hormos is closed both.

[00:10:37]And my guess is one of these days there's going to be a missile strike on South Su Canal also.

[00:10:46]Okay. Now this is the Babal Mandab. This is a beautiful picture. This sees tells you how small that bubble mandup is. You can see reflections of the uh you know sun on the sea and all that you know this is Yemen and this is um Somali land and there's island in between and the actual Babal Mandab is only this horn of Africa where are we going okay Saudi Arabia's oil exports via Babal Mandab just see how they have gone up since April it's not exports also imports they're all coming from the other route okay now has Iran started a indirect war on Saudi Arabia not a direct war indirect war throughout these are the questions which are coming up okay this picture is to tell all of you that I have become adept at AI okay I have started dabbling in it but look uh at the end of the day between this picture which looks very colorful and this slide the first one now I give more credence to this this has got more brain power and this has got you know uh artificial intelligence so I it comes back to the same thing which I keep talking artificial intelligence doesn't replace natural stupidity so that's where I am but then this picture tells you something okay But it's not a open war but a relentless proxy war. It's happening and it's hitting Saudi Arabia and Saudi Arabia is getting drawn into it right now. Trump and MBS are coordinating action against Saudi Southeast. So what is going to happen now? So Trump or USA is uh again into a two-front situation there locally.

[00:12:46]Saudi Arabia has come in. That's why I said later we'll talk of how Saudi Arabia is entering the war. I'm just waiting for how UAE will enter the war action and widening and as it is Israel and Hezbollah are at it in Lebanon. So things are going completely oral.

[00:13:07]Ah and amongst all this you know there's a funny thing Iran's interior minister has taken a delegation to Pakistan.

[00:13:16]So does Iran want uh mediation? I don't know. I mean can we have the take the slide to one side so that I can we can see also and right. So uh is Pakistan coming back into the fray? Who's who who is crying uncle? Is it Iran or is it this thing somewhere?

[00:13:38]Now it is coming from Iran that we are in talks. We are diplomacy all that. So Iran is being hit badly. There's no doubt about it. I mean there's no doubt about it at all. And then there's this funny article which came out yesterday in foreign affairs which says Pakistan has won the war in Iran.

[00:13:55]Who has it? I want your reaction to it.

[00:14:00][laughter] Say >> for a prize anything can be written these days. That's all I say sir.

[00:14:08]>> Okay. He's there as for a prize. But Foreign Affairs was a elite magazine, you know, and it people of some caliber, right? It represents American policy for or against.

[00:14:21]I've seen, you know, great think tank guys and, you know, people from Democrats and Republicans and slug it out and all, but this takes the cake.

[00:14:34]Or does it represent the American policy?

[00:14:39]right that they feel that Pakistan has won the war in Iran. I don't know if Mr. Trump sees this. What will he say? What will he think? Or Pete Haget or Marco Rubio. All three of them should see this article. Yeah, please sir.

[00:14:56]>> General Shankar, I think America is very confused and concerned about how Iran uh how Iran and Pakistan are working together. If you are a mediator truly you should keep both sides close or at equidistance.

[00:15:10]I don't see that. And uh we've already seen that some of the Iranian fighter aircrafts were parked in uh the same Nuran base. Looks like there is some place there to park.

[00:15:22]>> No. We need to sort it out next time.

[00:15:24]Yeah.

[00:15:25]>> Yes.

[00:15:26]>> So that we don't get parked at all.

[00:15:28][laughter] >> So this is just one of the things. the other stuff. Nobody's denying it.

[00:15:35]Nobody's accepting it either. And I had said this even as I published that story that no intelligence agency will accept that a helicopter carrying nuclear stuff from Pakistan took Kingdom of Saudi.

[00:15:47]Saudi Arabia got crashed inside Saudi Arabia and Awan wonders who shot it down. So the only way this math this equation gets solved is if Pakistan supplies the nuclear material also tells Iran where it is headed then both sides are happy or unhappy >> anyway that come out >> no no I'm okay with it but I see this is where I say what is the end game >> how can how can a premier uh you know foreign policy article Foreign affairs is the holiest of grails.

[00:16:26]In fact, I I and this is one of the another few, you know, magazines I have a subscription to. I don't mind paying because you get some quality stuff there one way or the other. But this is not quality. This is hairbrain thinking coming out of the establishment. Look, I have nothing against that Assand he's a bloody Pakistani. He will write for Pakistan. But for foreign affairs to publish this well American strategic thinking is scraping the bottom of the barrel.

[00:16:59]That's my comment.

[00:17:00]>> Sir, the thing is like this. It's it is completely funded from an independent body and that body takes care of funding. Even perhaps this follows I'm not saying it is true but it I've seen such instances where the person's salary also is being funded by a think tank in in a very you know acceptable way whatever you want to think of that as USCF used to write the chapter critical of India using the help of Pakistani journalists I mean it this has been proven sir it's not like I'm trying to you know pull something from thin And right now India just said you go take a walk USC because now India has also got a similar thing where it critiques America. They said that's the only way you can do this. You can't tell them to change their ways. You start critiquing us.

[00:17:50]>> No no I'm not saying that. I'm not I I am not this is look uh let me put it.

[00:17:54]This is not a India versus US affair or >> I know I know I'm just saying yeah but this this stuff is part of the course.

[00:18:01]Yeah. See the fact is that the American strategic thinking we're talking the endg game we're talking of something you know where are we going you know actually the second part the way it has moved on the from theou onwards if all of you have seen those of you are watching from theou onwards I started you know retracting from this gulf war and I said look let them go ahead it was a lousyou to be drafted but I said okay it appears that the US people are buying the Uh buying Iran off. I said I was hoping it'll succeed. Even if it buys them off like you know we had this thing of buying off the terrorists by giving them money. It didn't succeed ultimately you have to put them in the jail. All this I I'm not talking of those you know gun wielding terrorists. I'm talking of those terrorists in Kashmir who political terrorists that what that uh anyway those fellows. So who all of them were put in the jail after article 370 and things started becoming okay and now now again those miris and all those buffoons. So now those thing those chaps are again coming out you know they're opening their hole then it needs to be plugged but that's a different story but you know here well it's something completely thing that's why this war is now going in places where it should not and I've been saying this is assumed a character of its own you know when a when a war assumes a character of its own it indicates drift and drift in the world affairs is head.

[00:19:41]I mean many of you must be thinking why is this general talking this way?

[00:19:46]Am I being philosophical?

[00:19:48]No, I'm not being philosophical.

[00:19:51]I'm not being moralistic. I'm being pragmatic as to where this is heading.

[00:19:58]Like what uh G said, a whole lot of pipelines are coming up out. But the interesting thing is this. See the S canal and this this arrow which is nicely put on this map.

[00:20:13]The Houthis are now going to block it.

[00:20:17]Saudi Arabia's lifeline is out from here and Iran has now blocked this. They had they'll do it directly here and will that prompt Saudi Arabia to actually come into the war.

[00:20:31]Now if they do that what happens to Pakistan? will Pakistan now Pakistan is being make making lot of uh uh noise oh we'll come to Saudi Arabia's rescue and all that what will happen to that so actually if you see that KSA Pakistan deal is a defunct deal right and that and of course when all this is happening that foreign affairs comes out Pakistan has won the war all the best anyway today evening we'll uh I'll do uh dissection of Pakistan. Where is Pakistan heading which the second part which I said I will do I will do it today because in Baluchasthan day by day the situation is going even worse.

[00:21:16]Okay. Shipping it went up it's gone down again and oil prices are going up.

[00:21:24]Yesterday it was 90 plus. I don't know what it is today. Right. 92 93. It'll slowly going. It'll go up.

[00:21:32]This is like I said this is about 4 days back. See it's going up. It might by now it would have gone up a little more. I don't know the real thing but that's how it is.

[00:21:44]Yeah. This is what I wanted to examine today. I've gone off from somewhere to somewhere to somewhere but this is what is relevant.

[00:21:53]Trump risks another American forever war.

[00:21:58]Are we getting into another the third phase of America's forever war?

[00:22:04]People have started comparing uh Vietnam and Afghanistan. Both long wars lasted the decades.

[00:22:14]Why? There's no political end state.

[00:22:19]There's a risk of escalation. This escalation is happening every day incrementally.

[00:22:25]There's a mission creep. The mission which started somewhere is going somewhere else.

[00:22:32]Okay. There's a long-term military presence now warranted by USA a commitment will is it prepared to take it on?

[00:22:40]And let me tell you whatever military presence of USA is there in the Gulf no one is going to pay for it. So if no one is going to pay for it, Trump being the construction man that he is, what will he do?

[00:22:56]He will extract from somewhere. Now that extractive process if you figure it in there's no diplomacy. You don't know nothing.

[00:23:07]That's why the transactional aspect comes in.

[00:23:11]So like you know I heard a American commentator say look you have Jared Kushner and Steve Witkov who are two you know real estate constructors who are now into diplomacy.

[00:23:26]So this diplomacy is about real estate deals.

[00:23:30]So there's a there's going to be a long-term dynamic in this. Now let me also again compare what is different now from Vietnam and Afghanistan.

[00:23:42]you know in Vietnam and Afghanistan you had large number of US ground troops which you don't have okay right and then you had counterinsurgency and nation building which uh you know especially in Afghanistan you wanted to build a new nation uh it failed it failed then you had occupation of territory which I suppose that Only good thing which so far USA has not done is try to do occupation of territory but that also I thought was uh out of equation long back I mean I won't say out of equation they should have done something long back which now they are people are talking and decades long deployment of hundreds of thousands of troops this happened in Vietnam and Afghanistan so far it has not happened for decades but You're already in 6 months. It's now 6 months since your troops are there. More than that. And there is no way that there's no reduction. There's no talk of reduction.

[00:24:51]Look at the potential Iran conflict which I've highlighted on the right.

[00:24:56]Everyone says their emphasis is on air, naval, cyber, and intelligence operation. No boots on ground. But damn it, this is a new form of war.

[00:25:07]You don't put people on with boots on ground but you do everything else right you're doing focus on detrans missile threats and nuclear issues they threats are larger much more than nation building can ever give you nation building in Afghanistan was there for 20 years in America whom did it affect yeah it did affect India Pakistan and probably Iran and a few others and no one else bothered they said let it go on no one got hurt but not here and USA doesn't have any appetite to occupy Iran that is well known and so you're going to have intermittent military operations unless the conflict expands which is it is and then a very important thing when you compare it with Afghanistan and uh Vietnam Iran is a much more capable state it's a civilizational entity South Vietnam and you After all, if you go back South Vietnam, North Vietnam, North Vietnam was completely communist.

[00:26:10]South Vietnam was, you know, backed by America. The state could never get constructed. There were no ideology, no no uh nothing. And ultimately it collapsed. It was weak. Whereas Iran is a more capable state. Afghanistan, Afghanistan was a resilient state.

[00:26:35]And they would never defend anything.

[00:26:36]They will run away. They'll wear you out and come back. So to some extent USA is worried will it happen the same in Iran?

[00:26:44]No, it won't. It's completely different.

[00:26:48]But let this war continue for one more year. Iran will turn into Afghanistan, Vietnam plus something in the modern era with high tech all that it's there, right? What can make it a forever war?

[00:27:06]If you keep expanding the objectives, it'll become a forever war. Already the objectives I see are expanding. You started with regime change and you know uh nuclear weapons and nuclear material and all that.

[00:27:21]Didn't achieve that. You went to straight of hormos not achieved that.

[00:27:24]Now your babal mandup is closed. Not achieved that. All the Gulf countries are now going to be actively involved with each other. Will it spread to SW?

[00:27:34]Will the nuclear thing come back? Will Russia and China, what will they do now?

[00:27:39]They sense an opportunity.

[00:27:42]So objectives are expanding. So this will become a forever war.

[00:27:47]China will be drooling. Why? Nothing like putting uh but then China has a different story which we'll talk of tomorrow because Chinese stocks are tanking like nobody.

[00:27:58]Nobody's business. Already the Chinese government has spent $9 billion buying back their own stocks to stabilize the market.

[00:28:06]We'll talk about it tomorrow.

[00:28:09]Oh, if neither side can achieve a deterive outcome as it appears this will continue.

[00:28:16]What will Pakistan come and mediate?

[00:28:19]Pakistan his own home is in fire. Now lot of people are talking about Pakistan armed forces questioning everything. So I wouldn't be surprised if either Aimun is kicked out one of these days or a box of mangoes is given to him when he's flying.

[00:28:37]Okay, one of this is going to happen. I mean I have no doubt you can't have the the look the major collateral of this war will be Pakistan.

[00:28:47]And I said in the beginning if you remember Shrig I said Pakistan will always lose.

[00:28:53]>> Yeah. Yeah.

[00:28:55]>> Right. And US can bog down for so many years it'll continue.

[00:29:03]There will be trickle effect of people dying and injury and all that. Already people are politically it's going to create chaos in USA.

[00:29:15]What will happen? you know if the if the political contagion increases Mr. Trump or no Republican will come down not Mr. Trump Trump is out of question. Uh Republicans will go out a Democrat will come in. I don't see any Democrat also a great alternative at this point of time.

[00:29:33]And where will they take the war?

[00:29:35]Because once they get in the deep state of USA will reassert itself. The the the conditions of the war will not change.

[00:29:45]So are we looking at a time when periodic military operation become the normal? The new normal. What is the new normal of West Asia?

[00:29:55]That's the point.

[00:29:58]What can prevent it? [snorts] USA has to redefine its objectives. What do you wants to do there and get out or scale down?

[00:30:11]Can they resume diplomacy?

[00:30:16]Now resuming diplomacy. USA might want to but I don't think Trump today wants to resume diplomacy because Pakistan not not Pakistan Iran is in no shape to do diplomacy because there's a there's a clear divide in Iran.

[00:30:32]Iran is politically divided but not weak enough to fall.

[00:30:38]Iran is weak militarily but it can still strike back. See these contradictions were never there in Afghanistan or in uh Vietnam.

[00:30:51]So regional partners assume more of the security burden. Which regional partners? These are the questions I'm asking. Pakistan is not a regional partner. Pakistan is a regional beggar.

[00:31:03]Who are the other guys? You have outlined China. You have I mean you've pushed out China. You pushed out Russia. They can't talk. They don't talk. they are happy who will come and the United State United Nations is defunct at some point of time both sides have to realize oh there's look it's hitting both of us so we'll avoid descalation there's a risk of a prolonged strategic rivalry it might not be Vietnam or Afghanistan but this will continue you know US appears to have say okay we'll go for limited military action deterrence sanctions diplomacy or you know whole of government approach and all that unless there's a whole of nation approach this will not solve right it will not happen whether it goes into a becomes a forar war or not will largely depending on the depend on the political options which USA you know exercises so that is not clear to me what is the political option especially in the second phase what has why is Trump doing all this he said okay I'm done with the deal I going to hit them but why what is he getting I'm not clear yeah before I get into anything else your views on what I have said about Afghanistan and you know the forward war and then I'll take it to a different direction and get the Indian angle in Um, General Shankar, from the way I look at it, there are not many things that the United States can manufacture and sell to the rest of the world. Not many.

[00:32:51]There are a few agricultural products, um, high-end weaponry, high-end aircraft.

[00:32:59]And one thing that can give it some stability is if it can control the energy of the world. I wonder if that is the bigger picture game. And there's another interesting development that's happening. Yours, I've recorded that monologue. It might come today or tomorrow. Just take a look at China's great betrayal. Just take a quick look at that. You'll understand where things are headed as far as energy as a commodity is concerned. Then Shankar, that's what I think is going on. answer this. I could be horribly wrong of course but uh US has the best nuclear power technology as well as uh you know if it controls many of the oil uh then it it means something that's what I think sir back to you >> oh thank you so we'll see where it goes I mean I don't know whether it'll forever war looks quite uh okay quite on the cards Okay, news of the day yesterday um right uh Mr. Dal went and met MBS Saudi Arabia.

[00:34:11]So is India coming back into the scene?

[00:34:14]Yeah, India coming back into the scene in some manner is was always on the cards. So there is uh we'll see where this goes. Is India just securing its interest? It's which is a smart uh way of going about. I still feel India shouldn't get involved in anything. India should welcome Saudis.

[00:34:35]India should welcome UAE. India should welcome Kuwait. It should welcome Qatar.

[00:34:39]It should welcome Bahin because for them this is the way forward. India is the way forward very clearly and they will respond and like yesterday what we discussed and tell them please make us and please make sure that we are in UN then we can protect your interest otherwise you forget it you put send Tajistan there your interests and then we'll never we'll always be subordinated to China and uh USA and you know what's happened with your interests with Pakistan there so all these things we can tell them and we have to do it in a different manner. We shouldn't do what Pakistan is doing because now Pakistan isn't afraid.

[00:35:21]Let them do what they want and let USA and Iran and China and Russia have a ball with Pakistan.

[00:35:29]That's how I look at it. Okay. Uh let me look at you know we heard that uh USA struck a uh tanker shatter bellow and three Indians died on it. A lot of us were upset about it. Yes, even I am upset about it. But now it turns out that this is a shadow fleet tanker.

[00:35:54]Right. And what's interesting is this is the young boy who's uh just about 24 25 years old who died. He was a cadet actually who was he wanted to be a ship captain gone and look at his father and mother and his relatives you know actually there was a picture of his body and which I'm not shown. So where is this going? Where are we going to get hurt? And we have a problem. Let and this is where India soft power whatever it has to come. We have Indian uh mariners are one of the highest in the world right shipping.

[00:36:40]So if now India takes a stock of its mariners and puts down some legalities and rules and all that we can extract what we otherwise lack. is that power of having seafares with you who are putting their risk life at risk.

[00:37:01]So I think we need to put a price on it.

[00:37:03]We need to extract value out of it and I do hope the government puts in a policy government has given some policy of uh seafares going out or and all that but that is I think a very weak policy at this point of time. A government has to step up and use this politically and tell people you expect Indians to be on your ships. This is what we want otherwise our we will not man your ships. Don't let them go and take up jobs there and tell them we are doing it for the good and say we need say uh you know um clear conditions where we can do what we want to do.

[00:37:52]So I think India has to this is the internal part the external of course Ajit Dhul Sab has gone to Saudi Arabia UAE is there. So let's see how it goes.

[00:38:03]One of these days I think we need to make an outreach to Iran and tell them where are you going? You're going nowhere. Iran is also on a self you know harakiri trip. If Iran continues the way it is doing it Iran will disintegrate as simple as that and it'll go into poverty and all that already it is in a bad shape. So [snorts] all these issues are there in the cauldron.

[00:38:29]We've covered a lot of ground. Like I said, I've taken all of you on a tangent today. Maybe in a tangent, but this is the reality of this new war. And we'll come back every couple of days with uh the thing. There's not a definitiveness about this war where it is heading. What is definite is this problem is enlarging and we will see probably in the next discussion as to what you know we'll discuss maybe on Thursday as to what does India do what does India do in these things that's where I leave it your view sir and needed we we can take some questions also >> so again the question comes back to this what are United States long-term objectives and and you're seeing all these meetings like India going are meeting Kingdom of Saudi Arabia there is there is a problem between Russia and China as far as the second oil pipeline is concerned that's what I said I have done a monologue on that it's a little technical you need to understand it and uh what happens if China doesn't have as many op options for energy as it used to have before because if this war continues it could get quickly interigned one killing the other And uh that would be a huge problem too sir. Uh I think I read 1.5 million people have come back from Gulf to India in the last uh uh few months. Um that number could go up. Uh certainly that's going to be the detriment of these countries. I think uh United Arab Emirates there are seven foreigners to every UAE citizen.

[00:40:11]Katar might be not very far off too. I don't know about Saudi Arabia. So there are some considerations. How will these countries run? Iran has a population.

[00:40:19]The others don't. So lots of things that will also start becoming challenged. But we have a fair amount of questions.

[00:40:26]Let's go through them sir.

[00:40:27]>> Let's go through them.

[00:40:30]>> Thank you old Shamid for your becoming a YouTube member. Thank you Sham Tarun for the super sticker. Thank you Jotishmati for your super sticker.

[00:40:40]Thank you. Cosmic Reason 100 gems chai toast. I don't know what that means.

[00:40:46]>> No, no, no. I think they have started a new gift system.

[00:40:50]>> YouTube has come out with a new gift system. Thanks a lot.

[00:40:55]>> Yeah. 100 gems. Uh Ishan Grover two gems. Thank you. Ishan Gro two more gems.

[00:41:04]Ashi Shag two gems. Samosa Vishek profile two gems. on the morning breakfast. [laughter] Thank you.

[00:41:16]>> Okay, next question. Uh MBV Kiran wants to know, I watched the podcast with Mr. Moan Sundi. Interesting viewpoint. It might be digressing, but can we correlate the current happenings with his views? I think this is essentially the same thing that he is saying that uh United States has to have something that it's going to want to hang its hat on that might very well be energy nuclear energy and fossil fuel energy. I I think so. I mean the data from Moansi has put 150 references viewers. 150 references took him two months I think to write this article was just 1520 slides but uh the data was all very carefully double checked. So yes that is possible.

[00:42:04]Next question from Manukan. US strategic petroleum reserve is at its lowest level since its creation. Doesn't this then force Trump into a hard choice of ending conflict quickly either with a quick victory or a quick peace deal? I don't know there some it confuses me as like I said what is the end game here I don't know I while I while what you're saying is right man of san and uh but I don't know I mean at this point of time I'm searching for uh answers >> thank you >> thank you thousand gems trophy cake we have chai samosa and cake sir >> good good I just repeated this sorry about that uh Karthik wants know Iran threatens to walk into Kuwait on X. Some USA talkers are again saying that USA may want a ground invasion into Iran.

[00:42:58]Ground invasion to Iran is out of question.

[00:43:03]Okay.

[00:43:05]Iran threatening to walk into Kuwait is also out of question. Let me put it. If they do it right, then people will be forced to react.

[00:43:16]Same thing which happened with to Saddam Hussein will happen here.

[00:43:21]Okay. I don't think they they see one thing you should understand. Whatever the Iranians are, they're not fools.

[00:43:32]They're not fools. Okay? They do everything with they're complicated thinkers.

[00:43:39]Yeah. There's a problem internally in uh Iran. Not now. Ever since Kame has passed away, I've been saying uh Iran might win the war but it will lose the peace.

[00:43:54]to my way of thinking if uh you know at this point of time Trump does something dramatic a horrific bombing for three four days and pulls out I mean let me put it this way and say okay now you'll skew in your own juices I will do my deal when you come to me to New York nobody Pakistan no nothing and you keep firing whenever you fire a missile you'll get it back type you or do and tell the regional guys you take care of yourself he has to change track and he has to come out very clear as to what he wants to do. So, but then we'll see. But Trump is Trump. Trump I don't know whether Trump himself is clear how he thinks you know to assess how Mr. Trump thinks because he himself doesn't know how he thinks the way I look at it. Yeah.

[00:44:47]>> Thank you is a foreign affairs tissue paper one war in the Iran global diplomacy. Are you in bed tissue paper foreign affairs? Lust is must everything is d somebody look don't get involved with rhetoric like this or you know uh thing we you let's have well you know balanced uh thing about anyone don't curse them not doesn't look good okay I I understand what you're thinking yeah >> yeah thank you splashnot >> yeah and that brings us to a close of today's program please like share subscribe to either one of the channels from where you are watching it. We'll be back with you shortly. Namaskar.

[00:45:30]>> Thank you.