Turkey Was Ready To Enter The War On Iran’s Side?

[00:00:00]Israeli media are in a furious discussion over one big topic. Was Turkey prepared to provide aerial support to Iran if Israel and America had managed to convince the Kurdish militia in neighboring Iraq to invade Iran from the west?

[00:00:19]The claim is that yes, the Turks were preparing to enter the war in a limited way, but not on America's side. Turkey's in NATO, baba. What the flip are you talking about? Well, yes.

[00:00:29]Don't expect them though, just because they're in NATO and within America's sphere of influence, practically speaking. Don't expect them to do anything that helps Israel.

[00:00:37]We're in NATO, they say, but we support the west. Yes.

[00:00:41]Those who support, you know, we have American troops at Incirlik base, they'll keep saying. Yes, we hosted the NATO summit this year, they will say.

[00:00:47]But, like the Turkish ice cream seller, once he's done, he's handing you the cone, and he leans forward. As he's leaning forward, he asks, "Where are you from?" And you say, "Israel." He's He does that dodge where the ice cream disappears. You start grasping at thin air. Or, he gives you the cone, but then he picks it out, and there's no dollop of ice cream. You know, you've seen those videos, right? So, he's like, "Nope. Nope. Actually, never mind."

[00:01:08]America reportedly spoke to Erdogan, uh Turkish uh president, demanding that he and his country stay out of the war, and he said, "Evet. Yes, I will stay out of the war as long as you don't bribe the Kurds into becoming your ground forces."

[00:01:23]So, what's going on? Could the Turks Could there be truth to this that the Turks would have used their air force to fly over Iran with Iran's permission, potentially, and fight the Kurdish ground forces that were um sent in, essentially, by by Israel. God, what happened to my voice today?

[00:01:42]One take, guys. We carry on even with the derpiness.

[00:01:46]Could there be truth to this?

[00:01:47]How would that make geopolitical sense?

[00:01:49]What the hell is going on? I don't understand, baba. I will explain. And, actually, also, the Kurds are Sunni Muslims, as are the Turks. What happened to brotherhood? Why would the Turks turn on the Kurds, right? As some pro-Kurdistan activists would claim, "Is it only Muslim unity when you guys want to stop us from forming Kurdistan, even if it's by force? But when it suits you, Muslim unity is no longer activated. You can do whatever you want to against Muslim unity, no problem." I'll address that at the end, for those who care.

[00:02:17]Let's unpack the complicated geopolitical Rubik's [snorts] Cube. I can do that for Rubik's Cube in about 6 and 1/2 minutes, last I checked. But unlike that cube, this topic might reach like 10 minutes.

[00:02:28]Mark. No guarantees. No promise.

[00:02:31]That was the news, though. So, now here's the analysis.

[00:02:35]>> [snorts] >> Turkey benefits from a Middle East where Israel has a counterbalance. They have a counterweight. And right now, that counterweight is Iran.

[00:02:45]If Iran is destroyed, there's no counterweight, and Israel basically is fully unleashed, you know, they're completely uh let loose upon the region to do what they want.

[00:02:56]Turkey would then either have to live with a very aggressive neighbor who has a lot of potential future ambitions, you know, uh I'm looking at Turkey, I want a little bit over there, Syria, I want a little bit. Bro, there's loads of land that was promised to me that's not currently in my borders. What should we do, Should we Should we sort this out? Like, they'll have to live with that. They'll have to live with that sort of potentially expansionist uh southern neighbor.

[00:03:22]Or, the Turks would have to keep Israel in check by moving into the role of Israel's counterweight themselves. So, now that Iran's gone, and Israel was about to ascend, Turkey would have to come in and become that new counterweight.

[00:03:36]Well, that would have to you know, that would be dangerous. That would be risky. That would be very hostile.

[00:03:43]Imagine the hostility between the Iranian and the Turk Iranian and the Israeli state. Now, imagine the countries are much closer together.

[00:03:51]Like, it's just, ooh.

[00:03:53]If fighting broke out as well between Israel and Turkey, that would be catastrophically costly.

[00:04:00]I'm not saying the Turks would win or lose, but I'm saying it would be costly, and nation-states don't want to spend on war, by and large.

[00:04:08]So, for Turkish geopolitical objectives, for the benefit of the Turkish state, according to the current administration, Iran must not fall. Otherwise, we have to do what Iran is currently doing, to some extent.

[00:04:22]You see what I'm saying?

[00:04:23]So, naturally, if they caught, if the Turks caught wind that the Kurds are receiving bribe offers from Easy Boy and Big Daddy, best believe Turkish President Erdogan's going to hear that, and he's going to go and shut that down faster than you can say, "Mehmet, pass me the kebab sauce, garlic mayo, please."

[00:04:40]Now, another point to mention, Israeli media would naturally latch onto news like this because Israeli media nowadays is trying to paint a picture of a Turkey that is secretly allied to Iran, secretly a bad guy. Yes, they're in NATO, but look how bad they are. And did I A reminder, they are all Muslim, like, the Israelis are pushing this narrative quite a lot these days because Israel is lining up their next victim, or from their perspective, the the next nation they are a victim of, right? Where's my victim card?

[00:05:07]I have to defend myself again, damn it.

[00:05:09]>> [laughter] >> Israeli officials have recently been saying Turkey and Syria are now the biggest threats to Israel. Look it up.

[00:05:17]Turkey, Syria, biggest threat to Israel.

[00:05:18]There's loads of There's a lot of talk, especially in recent months. Very interesting. So, expect this kind of rhetoric and message messaging to get louder over time.

[00:05:27]Because Turkey is a 90 million 98% 90 million population, 98% Muslim nation, mountainous, quite large in size, has decent strategic depth with a defense industrial complex, a defense industrial base that is strong and rapidly growing.

[00:05:45]That is not isolated and sanctioned like Iran.

[00:05:48]That's not a That's not comfortable as a neighbor for from the Israeli perspective. That's not a Jordan who will cower in Israel's shadow or a Lebanon who will get slapped across the face and then beg for forgiveness. Please, sir. Sorry that my face, when it made impact with the palm of your hand, your your palm went tingly. Sorry about No, no, no. This is This is Turkey. Very different uh kettle of a very different kebab or very different kettle of fish, I think, as the official saying goes. If you poke the Anatolian wolf, poke poke poke, eventually the wolf has the capability to bite you.

[00:06:22]Anyone.

[00:06:23]Turkey, any nation, I should say.

[00:06:24]Turkey, Iran, perhaps in the future Egypt, Saudi Arabia, any nation that can stand up on their own two feet and refuse, if they choose to, refuse to bow, may be seen as a growing threat to Israel because Israel wants nations that bow, that submit to a a reality in the Middle East that we are technologically and strategically superior. We are in the advantaged advantageous position.

[00:06:50]Everyone else, go to go go low, go low.

[00:06:54]Any nation that says, "No, actually I'm fine. I don't need to bow to you."

[00:06:58]"Ah, you're a threat. I need to Where's my victim card? Where's my victim card?"

[00:07:01]It is what it is. That's why Iran is a threat.

[00:07:04]Finally, the Kurdish accusation.

[00:07:08]When we want Kurdistan, many Kurds say, "We are told don't cause chaos in the land. Come on, Muslim unity." But But when other countries want something, nobody brings up Islam. How is that fair?

[00:07:18]I'll give you the answer. It's It's not fair, guys. It's It's not fair.

[00:07:22]Hav al I know you're watching this.

[00:07:25]It's not fair. I I agree.

[00:07:27]Kurdistan not existing, it could very well be argued, isn't fair. Guess what?

[00:07:33]Life isn't fair.

[00:07:35]The rules are followed by some because those some must follow the rules, otherwise there's punishment. And the same rules are ignored by others because they can afford to ignore them.

[00:07:45]First rule of geopolitics, rules are built and bent and broken by those with the power to do so.

[00:07:51]The Kurds don't have, you know, their own nation-state internationally recognized. And my assessment is the Kurds have two options right now.

[00:07:59]Option one, try to gain benefit for your people, for the Kurdish people, in the various countries where the Kurds currently are, where you currently reside in.

[00:08:08]Right, try to integrate, try to get some political power, economic power, try to prosper.

[00:08:14]Prosper in the northeast of Syria, prosper in the north of Iraq, prosper in the west of Iran, prosper in the east of Turkey. That's where the Kurds currently are in terms of the modern nation-states. Option two, talk about how Sykes-Picot is illegitimate and all these are colonial borders, why would I support these borders? And try to fight to establish Kurdistan as a breakaway state and make yourself by fact, you know, factually a destabilizing group that will draw the ire, i.e. the hostile attention of the nations, whose nations you're, you know, threatening. You know, because you threaten to break away land from the nations that currently exist and their administration's not going to be happy about that. They're not going to be like, "Yeah, yeah, sure, take this half of my country." No, they won't be happy about that. Now, I'm saying you're Option two, I'm saying the Kurds could be destabilizing. I'm not saying it's not worth it. I'm not saying it's I'm not saying destabilization is bad necessarily, but I'm saying practically, it will be seen as destabilizing by the nation-states, by the administrations in the region.

[00:09:14]And you're going to have to deal with that.

[00:09:16]Probably, you can't fight the Turkish state, the Iranian state alone. So, you'll need outside help. That's where the current situation comes in. There's one guy sitting in the corner ready to help you with a briefcase full of shekels that he opens up and says, "Look at all these all this money."

[00:09:32]I'll give you all these Yu-Gi-Oh! cards just for Blue-Eyes White Dragon.

[00:09:35]>> [snorts] >> And you're like, "Wow, all the shekels. I could use this to fund my liberation war. You know, Bijar Kurdistan, Bijar Kurdistan."

[00:09:46]As at this point, one must ask though, is it a war for your liberation if you're taking the shackles from, you know, Israel, for example?

[00:09:59]Are you fighting for your independence or are you a useful idiot that has been transformed into the uh the boy, sorry, uh the boy, you know, the innocent boy that is used as cannon fodder? You know, the the the child with like big dreams for the future, but actually, you know, you're just being weaponized.

[00:10:16]Fashioned into a foot soldier for another country. Mhm.

[00:10:21]Funding can be removed. So, if you take funding from certain from a certain nation like Israel, for example, and you fail in your objectives, which is very, very likely, to be honest, then what happens now?

[00:10:33]And, you know, they'll be using They'll use you and then they'll drop you like it's hot.

[00:10:38]And then you're just left, you know, with the casualties and the hostility in your host nations and the mistrust, distrust, uh and you've been used, you know, how the outside nation uh from in the in the situation wanted to use you.

[00:10:53]The Kurdish groups, especially in western Iran and northern Iraq, will have to choose carefully because yes, I understand you want more, but the geopolitical reality is you try to get more, you might end up losing what you currently have. Is that worth the risk? Is the alignment with America and especially with Israel, is that alignment worth it for your cause?

[00:11:21]Anyway, how nations how groups decide to move, time will tell. Of course.

[00:11:27]And I'll be here to report you the news and the analysis unbiased and without the western spin. Ladies and gentlemen, I'm Mustafa Lugda, aka News Baba, and I'll see you on the next one.