Will Trump fall for Iran’s latest scheme? | On Balance Full Show

[00:00:00]Leland Vidder. Now, >> the better place is us talking together.

[00:00:04]Chris, great show. Friends, welcome to the program. Iran is trying to play Lucy and the football with President Trump.

[00:00:12]Uh, this being the fourth or fifth time Iran has now killed three more US troops. Bill O'Reilly in moments on why Trump can't fall for it again. We start with our why it matters segment tonight.

[00:00:24]US is bombing Iran again right now. This is the 10th night of strike. Central Command says they are once again going after Iran's military capabilities.

[00:00:33]10th night of strikes and again the wrong targets. Trump is still talking tough, but his strikes aren't backing it up. He posted on True Social, "Every time Iran kills an American soldier, they will pay for that killing many times over." It appears JD Vance's proclamation that Iran had turned over a new leaf is now probably provably rather than predictably laughable. Shia Islam hasn't turned over a new leaf in 1400 years. Not going to start now. This isn't the first time Trump has threatened Iran. Remember unconditional surrender. A whole civilization will die.

[00:01:13]The Iranians do not care what Donald Trump says. They watch his actions. So far, American actions, the target list, does not say that President Trump has changed. American credibility is on the line. And we've been saying that now for five or six months. Bill O'Reilly said the very same thing. He said that the strike on Iran was the biggest gamble of Trump's presidency. And that prediction becomes truer and truer every single day.

[00:01:46]>> This is the biggest gamble he's ever taken his whole life. In his whole life, this Iranian thing is the biggest gamble a man has ever taken. And I said at the beginning of this and you remember it, biggest gamble President Trump's ever taken his entire life on anything because it's not like Venezuela. It's not like other countries. It's the theocracy. It's fascism. They don't care whether they live or die or their people live or die.

[00:02:12]>> No. Well, Trump and America's credibility are on the line. Like in most things, Trump has wanted throughout the Iran war a quick win. And to underpay politically for this legacy changing moment. Doge died on the vine.

[00:02:26]The American government is spending more than ever. Greenland, well, we don't own it. The Iranians have taken note of that. The mediators are now proposing a 10day ceasefire. This happens every time Trump finally gets tough. So now they want to play Lucy and the football again. Trump must now see if this time they are serious, if Iran is serious.

[00:02:50]And there is every reason to believe they are not. Bill O'Reilly, anchor of the No Spin News, author of Confronting Evil, host of the We'll Do It Live podcast. Bill, you know, a lot of people right now are talking about what Trump should do to Iran. Turn it around on you. What should Trump demand Iran does?

[00:03:08]Not what they say, what they do before stopping strikes and agreeing to a ceasefire.

[00:03:15]>> Is it is the same thing he wanted at the end of fe January, early February. You let the weapons inspectors in to monitor your uranium enrichment and you leave this trait of hormuz alone. Um, that's it. There's no terror component to it.

[00:03:34]There's no leave uh the UAE alone, don't do anything in Israel. None of that.

[00:03:40]It's down to two things. Now, the problem for uh President Trump is that the American people aren't backing him the way they usually do in the MAGA forces anyway because of uh high costs of gasoline and food. So he doesn't have that popular opinion. Most Americans know what the president did was the right thing to do. I mean, you don't let a terrorist state develop a nuclear weapon unless you're ready to uh violate the Treaty of Versailles and have a guy with a small mustache take over Europe.

[00:04:22]Okay? And at that point in history, the Europeans and America was were willing to do that. Well, Trump is not. So, right now, it's impossible to ascertain what's really happening because we don't have any reporters on the ground. We don't know. Now, there is a blockade. We >> got three. We got three American body bags, Bill, to know what's happening.

[00:04:45]>> Okay, you got three American body brands. What does that mean in the big picture?

[00:04:50]>> It means that Iran doesn't mean anything.

[00:04:53]>> We We know the straight of Hormuz is not open. We know that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard is still very much in charge. We know that their military capabilities are such that they can defeat US air defenses. We know that they can attack Kuwait and Qatar at will. And we know they can close the straight of Hormuz and raise the price of gas. We can ascertain a lot of what's going on.

[00:05:16]>> Well, I don't think it's that cut and dried at all. Um, you can get ships through Hormuz. Um it's risky and the insurance companies don't want to do it, but you can get them through and uh the casualties, the KAS, they are to be um saluted, but what else? What what are you going to say? You're fighting people who are desperate and they're going to try to kill you. That's what war is.

[00:05:47]>> You think they're really that?

[00:05:48]>> We don't know. [clears throat] >> Yeah, I think they're desperate.

[00:05:52]Um, we don't know. We Americans, we don't know the extent.

[00:05:57]>> If if they're so desperate, >> economic damage.

[00:06:00]>> If they're if they're so desperate, why aren't they agreeing to a deal that was a sweetheart deal? They're they're raising the stakes. They're the ones lashing out. They're the ones not living up to just basic commitments, and we're supposed to believe they're the ones who are desperate.

[00:06:19]>> Well, I'll answer that question with a history question.

[00:06:22]Why didn't the Nazis withdraw from Stalenrad when everybody knew they were losing and it was going to be a tie turn on the war? Some people are crazy.

[00:06:34]Mullers are in that category, >> okay?

[00:06:36]>> And they're going to stick it out for whatever propaganda reason. But we the people do not know >> the extent of the pain that the Persian people are experiencing. And >> what's that have to do with the price of tea? Don't know.

[00:06:53]>> What was that?

[00:06:55]>> Couple of things about that. If you want to compare the Mullers to the Nazis, I think it's very apt. Roosevelt demanded unconditional surrender. Eisenhower knew that this would be a fight until Hitler killed himself. There was no negotiation. There was no trying to make a deal with the Nazis for the very reasons you just laid out.

[00:07:18]But the American public was willing to accept hundreds of thousands of casualties.

[00:07:25]And in our country, we are not willing to accept any casualties.

[00:07:32]That's the difference. And that makes it very difficult for a president to wage any kind of conflict. So he is almost trapped in what he can do. I'd like to know this uh blockade of the Iranian ports by American warships.

[00:07:51]What effect that has on the regular people? I would love >> Do you think the Mullis care what's happening to the people?

[00:08:00]doesn't matter to me because the people themselves have to eat and I don't know it and no pundit knows it and no reporter knows it because nobody is allowed into the country to assess it.

[00:08:14]>> So we don't know >> again what does that have to do with the price of tea in China?

[00:08:20]>> You think the Iranian people are going to do is >> I don't know. No, I don't think they will because >> So why does it matter whether Why does it matter what their economic condition is?

[00:08:31]>> Well, because if they're starving, they'll have to. Then it becomes life and death. You got to feed your three-year-old.

[00:08:39]That's why. And that's one of our strategies right now. We're not going to kill the people in Tehran directly with bombs. We're going to make it so difficult for them to function daytoday.

[00:08:52]They'll demand that the Mullers stop the madness. Now, do I know what's going to happen? No. But I do know that the president has shrinking options, which brings me back to my uh initial analysis, the biggest gamble of his life.

[00:09:10]>> What?

[00:09:10]>> Okay, because you don't know.

[00:09:15]Look, nobody knew that Ma Tong killed 10 million of his own people. No one knew that because there wasn't any reporting about it. It was impossible to get dispatches out of China. So when finally years later people discovered how the communists took over, it was terrifying.

[00:09:41]But the moment had passed and so now we're in a position where the Iranians and I'll address the Cuomo show. The reason the Pentagon doesn't want to banner American casualties is to give the Mullers a propaganda victory. That's why >> Well, hold on, Bill. You can't have it both ways. Pry it out.

[00:10:04]>> Well, they also don't want it out because they don't want the issue in the United States. You just said the American people won't accept casualties.

[00:10:11]The Pentagon can't to your point. You're making your own point. That the Pentagon also can't from a domestic political perspective in the United States when only 30% of Americans support the war talk about how good the Iranian military is and what I'm and the damage it's causing. And it's perplexing to me why President Trump has so oversold the damage to the the Iranian military.

[00:10:38]He's going to have to meet the families at Dover after saying the Iranian military is wiped out.

[00:10:46]>> Well, hyperola is part of every war.

[00:10:50]Every war that's ever existed. You're going to have one side say one thing and the other side say the other thing. So, President Trump is trying to rally the American people to his cause. That's what he's trying to do. and we don't know what the situation is, how frustrating that is. It's crazy frustrating, particularly if you're in the uh honest reporting business.

[00:11:16]Unfortunately, most media corporations in America are not in that business.

[00:11:20]They want to see Trump lose this. They want the Mull the Pentagon did throw all the reporters out um to to be fair.

[00:11:29]Yeah, the Pentagon is look you they're not look from the very beginning I questioned the appointment of the secretary of war. Okay, I didn't think he had the experience. I did not think that he was able to run an enormous bureaucracy around the world and I have been proven correct. I'm not going to cheap shot him because I don't know uh what Mr. Hezth is told to do or why he's told to do it.

[00:11:58]So for me to cheap shot the man would be ridiculous because I'm not privy to that. But certainly they don't want they being the military to put a loser label on this conflict. Come on. You've been around. Nobody's going to brand themselves a loser.

[00:12:18]>> No. I >> And that's why they're holding back the information. They're holding back bad information.

[00:12:24]>> Right. That didn't work out very well for the US mil It didn't work out very well for the US military or for the president that matter during Vietnam, did it?

[00:12:32]>> No, because it was a totally different situation there. Um, you had a uh army, a military that didn't want to be there.

[00:12:42]It was a drafty army and and so you had this turbulence within the core. You don't have that now. What you have now is decision making and the American people don't understand what the decision making is based on. We just don't have the data. We had the data in Vietnam. You could see the guys coming back from the battlefield there. I saw them in my neighborhood. It was devastating.

[00:13:07]>> Okay. You don't see that now. You don't know now. And I'm praying literally that the Mullers collapse, that the Persians say enough and overthrow them like they did to Sha. But that's going to take courage, Leland. It's going to take a lot of courage to overthrow the revolutionary guard. And right now, the Persian people don't have it.

[00:13:30]>> Well, uh, one one place to place blame.

[00:13:33]Uh, I understand, Bill. Thank you very much. Good to see you. Next, the Tape Brothers. Those spirit animals of the Manosphere. They finally get arrested on charges of sexual assault. Why their lawyer thinks Marco Rubio is going to save them.

[00:13:53]Welcome back. The Manosphere spirit animals, brothers Andrew and Tristan Tate, are now in handcuffs, and they want Secretary of State Marco Rubio to save them from extradition. For those of you unfamiliar, these are viral misogynistic influencers who built an entire empire, tens of millions of dollars, preaching male dominance. They were arrested in Miami after the UK requested extradition on dozens of charges, including rape and sex trafficking. This is not new. We've known about these guys for a long time.

[00:14:23]Nobody's ever caught them. Back in 2023, Romanian prosecutors hit the Tape brothers with human trafficking, sex abuse, moneyaundering, and rape charges.

[00:14:30]They left Romania allegedly thanks to the Trump administration kind of putting their finger on the scale in 2025. The brothers had built a massive online following in the US pushing a brand of hyper masculine outrage. They also sold courses on how to turn your girlfriend into a sex cam girl. Newsweek senior editor at large Josh Hammer headlines the Andrew Tate moral rot and the future of the American right. He is with us now.

[00:14:57]Will the manosphere in the US whatever that is and how you describe it. Finally abandon these two pieces of scum.

[00:15:06]>> Uh well, Dan, great joining you and I appreciate you not you not holding back.

[00:15:09]These these two really are some of the scummiest scumbags on the absolute face of the earth. Look, personally, I I'm not really into the whole manosphere thing. I'm not sure if my if my body physique gives that away. I frankly, if I'm being very cam with you, I I view it actually as a little little neopagan, frankly. This exaltation of the body at the expense of of the exaltation of things like God itself. But uh hopefully those who are into the whole manosphere thing, those who who are really into going to the gym and pumping iron and I'm not saying that's bad. It's obviously very healthy for you. But hopefully they will whoever these guys fans are, Leland, hopefully they go away ASAP. And by the way, I I I've been taking notes. I've been taking names.

[00:15:45]There are a lot of people including a lot of folks on the broader rights who really really ought to have known better and were welcoming these epic scumbags into the tent as recently as just over the past year, year and a half. Well, and they knew who it was one thing to deal with these guys sort of back in the day. Um, they once they had already been charged, once they've been run out of Britain because of what they were doing to women, not just how they were talking, but what they were very credibly accused of doing to women. Um, some of it we can't even mention on television. U, but there were people who then cozied up to them because they were they were edgy. They were, in the words of of Tucker Carlson, who loves this word so much, they were naughty. And Carlson was one of the ones who extolled the virtues of uh the Tate Brothers. The the wing of the Republican party that embraced the Tape Brothers, the podcast bros, if you will, is the same wing of the party that JD Vance is now thinking is the future. And if they were, if that group was close to ever the Tape Brothers, what does it say about them?

[00:16:51]So this is one of Tucker's first big interviews by the way after Fox News fire. This is one of his first first big interviews. He flies to Romania where they're under house arrest and conducts this utterly lossome interview. And again there are people who well after this who knew who they are have just been continuing to pal around. As far as the vice president is concerned, Leland, if I'm being very came with you, I think the vice president spends far too much time online. I think that he is that he is too deep in the bowels of social media that he is too attuned and pays too close attention to what people say online to to a lot of the younger demographic and a lot of their hyper online.

[00:17:22]>> Do you think MAGA now abandons these guys?

[00:17:25]>> I sincerely hope so. Look, I I'm not sure that the tape brothers were ever mainstream MAGA. I'm not sure that they were ever clinking champagne glasses at New Year's Eve or Christmas Eve in Mara Lago or anything like that, but they definitely were adjacent. I remember Alina Haba a MAGA.

[00:17:39]>> We have we have that sound bite. uh Alina Haba who is very close to the president employer president's lawyer spokesperson um through the 2024 campaign. Take a listen.

[00:17:52]>> Oh, we we don't have it. But u she was, as you pointed out, um very interested in them.

[00:17:58]>> Yeah, she was on Bane Johnson's podcast and and was just flattering them to their face. Again, this is like a year and a half ago. This is well past the time that they deserved any benefit that whatsoever. By the way, it's not just the massage.

[00:18:07]>> What was it about him, though? Like what? How did this happen?

[00:18:11]>> I don't know. I I I I I genuinely do not know. I I I I find it very baffling. I I cannot I cannot name a single thing about these people that I like or respect. Not a single thing. Literally, not one. It's actually not just >> That's because that I'm going to take the last 15 seconds. That's because you have principles and what they had was they had influence with young men which MAGA traded in order to get the vote out for Donald Trump. Uh, and they didn't care who the people who were getting the vote out were. Uh, they just wanted the influence. Josh, thank you very much.

[00:18:42]Appreciate it. Hopefully, justice will be served.

[00:18:45]>> For as unpopular as Republicans and Donald Trump are, Democrats keep losing support. Next, why Democrats can't quit socialism.

[00:19:02]I mean, we're talking about right here the average of CNBC and Washington Post minus 22 points. Barack Obama was underwater, but not anywhere near this level. He was at minus 8. And George W.

[00:19:12]Bush in the middle of the Iraq war when that was going south, he was at minus 20 points. So, at this point, Donald John Trump is in fact holding the record for the lowest net approval rating for a president in a second term. By almost every metric, this should be a dream year for Democrats in the midterms. The midterm stars are aligning in a way they never have before. Trump's approval rating is tanking, which will not be helped by the impact of gas prices that just hit $4 a gallon again today. His handling of the Iran war, well, the Iran war is in full swing again, and approval rating is less than freezing. By every available measure other than the stock market, Trump and Republicans are in trouble. Except Democrats are doing worse. Why? Take Michigan for example, where Democrats are defending a Senate seat. They are about to nominate a terrorist sympathizer who cannot condemn Iran's Ayatollah. Here he is getting asked about it yesterday on CNN.

[00:20:10]>> When Iran's Supreme Leader was killed, you told your staff, according to audio obtained by the Washington Free Beacon, quote, there are a lot of people in Dearbornne who are sad today. So like, I just don't want to comment on commune at all. Why were you worried about offending people who support the Ayatollah?

[00:20:26]>> Jake, on a day where we're mourning the loss of two more service members in a war we never should have fought. I think all of us ought to step back and ask whether or not everybody in Michigan, frankly, everybody in America shouldn't be sad about the fact that this president, backed by the prime minister of a foreign government, took us to a war we had no business fighting in.

[00:20:45]>> Wow. Could be in the US Senate. co-host of the Party Lines podcast, Kurt Bardella, director of data science at Decision Desk HQ, Scott Trainer, former special assistant to President Biden, Megan Hayes. Welcome all. Scott, start with the data. Um, who is voting for Abdul Alied right now? It's like all the other Democratic primary voters. It's young. They tend to be a lot more progressive and and they're showing up.

[00:21:09]Look, we've seen higher turnout in these Democratic primaries than we've seen since the Republicans showed that kind of fervor in terms >> most mostly mostly white, mostly educated, oftentimes women.

[00:21:20]>> Yes.

[00:21:20]>> And younger, which is a good demographic for the Democrats, >> right? And and also now um Elizabeth Warren has gotten behind Abdul say.

[00:21:30]>> I'm endorsing Abdul El Say for Senate in Michigan. Abdul is the only candidate in this race not taking corporate money and he's fighting to get money out of politics altogether. Abdul has been a card carrying union member and he's fighting for working people. That's why he's endorsed by the United Auto Workers and he's growing a movement of working people all across Michigan.

[00:21:56]>> Megan, take for a second that getting money out of polish is like trying to get oxygen out of life. Just doesn't happen. Uh, is Elizabeth Warren endorsing him a good thing for him or a bad thing for him?

[00:22:09]>> I I mean, I don't really know if it's a good or a bad thing. I think anybody in the establishment endorsing any candidate this cycle is probably not the best thing. But I will go back to your introduction. Haley Stevens is ahead seven points in the polls and she also leads by 45% in the black vote and 22% in non-educated white people. And so I do think that there is this is still a contentious fight and there's still 10 days till the election. So, I'm not sure that Michigan is as close to nominating him as Senate as as you would think.

[00:22:33]>> Hope is eternal, right, Scott? Like, when you we we look at this polling right now, I I don't Well, and look, I I think look, Diane Deette, a member of Congress who just lost her primary in Colorado, very safe Democratic seat, longtime member, been in there 20 years, great member, prog, not necessarily progressive. I think that's what a lot of the the Democratic progressives are looking at is an Abu Aliad going to repeat that or is Zoran Mandani or something else we've seen. Look, turnout is tough. Polling Michigan is tough. Um the momentum certainly behind him and look on the other side you got Mike Rogers who has lost recently running running in Michigan, but he is a standard, you know, he comes out of the intelligence community. He comes out he's an old school neocon.

[00:23:13]>> Yeah, if you have to choose between Abdul say and some guy from the intelligence community, Michigan is relatively conserv. But I think this you we're on to something here, Kurt, is that Democrats seem to be now beholdened to this very radical base and it risks costing them very winnable elections.

[00:23:31]Yeah. Just as as Democrats were saying, nominating Kent Paxton over John Cornin is creating a scenario where where Republicans are going to have to spend more money to preserve Texas than they would have had it been the safer pick and Cornin. Democrats are not going through this in Michigan because if they >> are Democrats really gonna spend money in September and October for Abdul Alaied.

[00:23:50]>> Well, they're gonna have to if they want to try to hold that seat and that's the problem. The money that goes into Michigan now under Sed is it would not have had to go there in the first place if they had gone with Stevens who would have had an easy path. As Scott just said, we have watched Mike Rogers lose to traditional Democrats a few times now statewide. Why on earth would you in a in a situation where you need to run the table to take the majority back go the hardest route possible?

[00:24:14]>> Question why?

[00:24:15]>> I don't I don't have I'm I'm a complete Haley supporter so I'm not exactly sure and I do think to your point the the independents are 35% according to the last exit poll in 24 and and Rogers lost by like 20 or 30,000 votes. So to go with someone >> by by the way just in terms of where we are DDHQ polling average SAD's up six points >> but the poll that was released last week she was ahead seven points. So I don't know where you're and it was by Detroit News. So I'm I'm going to go with that because we're an amalgamation of a lot of polls.

[00:24:43]>> That's great. The poll that came out last week after Mallerie McMar you're you're you're pitting your hopes to this here.

[00:24:48]>> It's not pitting my hopes. I think >> because you're worried that if he wins, you lose the seat.

[00:24:52]>> I 100% >> 100% worried.

[00:24:54]>> So why does that why does that argument not work with Democratic voters? Because Democrat voters, the the the the young kids of today and the far-left would rather be right than actually win elections, which is why they constantly put themselves in a situation to lose when they could win their political morals.

[00:25:10]>> Uh I think you just call got called Megan a collaborator and a fa a collaborator with fascists. Is that >> perfect? Great. I want Democrats to win.

[00:25:19]I believe in democratic values. I'm not a socialist. I believe in a capitalist society. I don't believe we should defund the police along with it. as though you're in the minority though in the Democratic party.

[00:25:27]>> I don't actually believe that we are in the minority. I think we're in the we are in the majority of people who are going to win majority seat.

[00:25:33]>> So we we go from Michigan. The other race that should have been pretty winnable for Democrats was Maine. Uh Graham Platner blew up. Now uh the top platner replacement is Troy Jackson, former state senate president, fifth generation logger. Uh same with all the progressive policies, Medicare for all, abolishing ICE, endorsed by Bernie Sanders. Uh in his previous run for governor, I think he came in third.

[00:25:56]Scott, Megan, this is the question. U there has been absolutely zero opposition research dropped by Republicans on Troy Jackson. Should that worry Democrats?

[00:26:06]>> Absolutely. We should just we should not be spending money in Maine. Susan Collins can take the seat. I mean, why?

[00:26:11]Again, he's not a Democrat. If he wants to claim socialist values, and that's fine. But I just I I have heard some of the OP research that they have, and I'm not sure that it's going to be a winnable seat for Dems.

[00:26:20]>> Wow. Let me leave you with a number. If the Democrats win Maine and North Carolina, they have an 83% chance of taking the Senate. If the Democrats win Michigan, they have a 70% chance of winning the Senate. That's how important these seats are. And and you know, from a >> What does it say, Scott? I think this is fascinating because DDHQ was the very first to call the presidential election.

[00:26:40]We had it what, 45 minutes before everybody else did um in 2024. Uh you guys are statistically by far the best of all the predictions out there. It's why we work with DDHQ. DDHQ House forecast, House control, probability, Democrats, 62 um percent. You flip a coin 10 times, that means four out of the 10 Republicans still control the House in a time that, as we started this segment, Donald Trump has the worst favorability of any president in the 21st century. How do you explain that?

[00:27:10]We explained it because these seats are close. Look, Jerry Mandering works. When we were looking at these seats, say 20 years ago, we would see 30 or 40 sweet 30 or 40 seat swings. we're going to see maybe 15 to 25 seats in a wave election and it's because Jerry Manning on both side have have narrowed the the playing field >> and you don't think the Democratic socialist moniker has anything to do with that?

[00:27:31]>> I it it doesn't help the same way high gas prices and inflation doesn't help the Republicans.

[00:27:36]>> So the the last place right that we would talk about this if we put the map back up is Texas. That's going to be the wild card. James Taro, Ken Paxton. Uh, polling right now has Taler Rico um up.

[00:27:49]>> Is this is Terico the model for Democrats in a place like Texas? Yeah.

[00:27:55]Having living there, seeing yard signs popping up in just my neighborhood where you don't see neighbor, you know, people put up yard signs like that. He is approaching this clinging to his Christian values. He is meeting people where they are. He's meeting Republicans and independents where they are. He's not saying they're bad. He's not saying they're racist. He's not saying that you are authoritarian loving dictators because you support Donald Trump. He is approaching this with a lot of kindness, compassion, welcome. He is creating a permission structure for people who have never voted Democrat to this one time consider voting for Telerico over the very very flawed baggage riddled Ken Paxton.

[00:28:28]>> Well, he tico has his own baggage in terms of sound bites, right? Where non-binary Jesus and everything else.

[00:28:34]Megan, what are Democrats hopes right now? How do how do they and I guess the better question is can they excise the socialist cancer from the party? You got to be having these conversations.

[00:28:46]>> I mean, I think that they're doing their best to try to, but I think that we have to remember that socialists are not Democrats and what Democrats stand for and what people in the country are standing for are democratic values, not socialist values.

[00:28:56]>> Scott, when we go into the polling, is it that Democrats can win with these socialist candidates in the primaries?

[00:29:05]They can win their own primaries.

[00:29:07]Do you gain enough votes with enthusiasm of the young white, overeducated, underpaid, downwardly mobile crew that it makes up for the middle that gets turned off?

[00:29:19]>> Look, the math works in a primary. It's unclear and unlikely that the math will work in a general election like that.

[00:29:25]Look, America is center right, center left, depending on the state you're in.

[00:29:29]It is not far right or far left and >> except in like Vermont and you know places that are >> look Vermont you even got Phil Scott who is by all all accounts considered a moderate Republican especially compared to some of his other Republican down south. One number I'll leave you with at least Telerico and some of the other Democratic candidates. They are getting much better numbers among Hispanic voters and in states like Arizona, California, Texas, those types of areas that you know will have play in the the Senate and the House. Those are the types of numbers the Democratic candidates are going to have to see.

[00:29:58]Now, are they going to give it back by some of these Democratic socialist things? I'm not sure. But they are performing in some of the other demographic.

[00:30:05]>> Look, you you have to and we have to look at what happens with the Arab population in Michigan. These populations matter. Scott, that's why we have you. Uh Megan, >> my friend, it's good to [laughter] see you both. Thank you very much. First wrote about this in warnotes. Your chance for an inside look at the show every day. It is free at warnotes.com.

[00:30:21]I'll see you on social media. Leland Vidder. Today, the family of Nolan Wells said goodbye to their son. It is a tragedy why there are so many who want to make it about racism.

[00:30:41]Today was the funeral for 18-year-old Nolan Wells. For those of you unfamiliar with the story, Wells was a black teenager football player from Mississippi who disappeared after a Fourth of July boating outing with three friends, three white friends. It's important. Searchers found Wells's body two days later after he disappeared from a trip to an island off Mississippi's Gulf Coast. There is precisely zero evidence of foul play. The most obvious answer is a tragic freak accident. But that doesn't get Reverend Al Sharpton or race baiting attorney Ben Crump time on TV. So they say it must be racist cops covering up something far more sinister.

[00:31:19]>> We've got to meet and find what is just and fair. We want a full and thorough investigation.

[00:31:27]>> Our lived experiences tell us that we must question everything. Everybody's role, law enforcement role, that is the lived experience of us as black people in America.

[00:31:41]>> Civil rights attorney, veteran police detective Tim Alexander um is with us now. Uh Tim, is there any evidence that race played a role here?

[00:31:54]Well, to say if there's evidence, I mean, there's no evidence that I can see that race played a role, but there's no evidence that race did not play a role.

[00:32:03]>> What evidence? Hold on. What What evidence would there be that race didn't play a role?

[00:32:09]>> How could you have evidence?

[00:32:11]>> How could you have evidence that something didn't play a role?

[00:32:15]When you conduct all the interviews and you speak with all the witnesses and you do all the background checks and you examine the autopsy report, the toxicology report, the examine the boat for the damage, were there other people out there on that island? A lot has to go into an investigation before a conclusion can be drawn.

[00:32:34]>> So, is there any evidence >> excluding or including?

[00:32:36]>> Right. But is there any evidence? I I I guess I I tend to deal with what there ev is evidence of, not what there's evidence of not. But is there any evidence in all of those things that you laid out that there's foul play?

[00:32:49]>> I don't have the insight of where they are with their investigation. And if they're declaring that is concluded, then I would say that that that in itself is a uh problem because we know that there's a huge time discrepancy. We do know that uh upon the public information as to when he was last seen and when they actually were towed from the island by whatever company told them and that's another aspect. Have they spoken with that company to see what they saw when they arrived? Who would be left on an island without their phone or keys? And keys are >> investigators say they've spoken to 60 people. Um, what I'm what I'm trying to get at here is that there's undoubtedly case cases where race do play a role in situations and and those need to be brought to account. But when you have, I guess, what you could call respected members, although it pains me to say that about all sharpener, Ben Ben Crump, uh, but certainly vocal members of a community baiting and sort of insinuating that race plays a role.

[00:33:49]Doesn't that tarnish law enforcement as you point out with absolutely no evidence?

[00:33:54]>> No. I mean, again, we have to be careful saying there's no evidence. And two, there's a there's a a disease to an investigation.

[00:34:03]>> We don't know there isn't any.

[00:34:05]>> Well, well, we don't know that, right?

[00:34:07]We don't have the actual file. We only know what's released in the public. And what we do know, and what I'll say from my experience, almost 30 years in law enforcement, followed by years as a prosecutor, confirmation bias is the quickest way to destroy an investigation. If you go in with an understanding of what is and what isn't before you do an investigation through it to the end, you've already ruined your investigation. So to say that there's no evidence of of uh uh race being a player, that's >> Yeah. At the same at the same point, aren't you tarnishing it by putting race into something that we have no way of knowing if race played a role?

[00:34:45]>> I'm not saying that. Well, I would agree with that. What I'm saying and and I agree with what you're saying, it can't come in and it can't be excluded. The evidence will take you where it takes you. That is the ultimate.

[00:34:56]>> So, so you agree with me that Crump and Sharpton are being irresponsible?

[00:35:01]>> Look, I won't go so far as to say they're being irresponsible. They're speaking their mind. They're exercising the First Amendment rights.

[00:35:06]>> That doesn't make it responsible.

[00:35:09]>> Well, listen, going into a crowded theater saying there's a fire and there isn't one, that's irresponsible. Saying that I believe that race played a role in a case without actually being involved in an investigation is no different saying uh that you know the guy was shot or young man was shot where there's no evidence that uh he was actually shot. It's just >> Yeah. Which is No, it's right. It is.

[00:35:31]But it's irresponsible, I think, to insert race into an issue. We live in a a polarized society. We don't need any more division if it's not warranted.

[00:35:40]Right.

[00:35:41]>> Well, you got to understand that you're you're you're nailing it, right? You're saying what what I'm trying to say, but this is the other side of what you're saying. There are people who believe that race played a role without even knowing about this case.

[00:35:54]>> So, to discount them and silence them because one's investigation, I think it just smears law enforcement. I I went back and looked. So, the former colonel of the Mississippi State Police, African-American, the former uh special agent in charge of the FBI in Mississippi, um AfricanAmerican, uh they both spoke glowingly of the two men who succeeded them, who are now in those roles, who are overseeing this investigation. The FBI uh is heavily involved in it. How are we not tarnishing potentially good men when you start talking about how race plays a role in something and law race plays a role in law enforcement with no evidence?

[00:36:31]>> Well, how do you tarnish it? I mean, I don't mean to be flippant about this this issue, but the reality is that when you're talking about someone's ability to speak their mind and they happen to have a platform, you can't silence them.

[00:36:44]They're entitled to their opinion, but the investigation will tell you what the facts are. And and if that upsets some people, then so be it. But the reality here is they they're not involved in this investigation. They entitled >> they're trying to assert themselves.

[00:37:01]>> Aren't I doing the same thing? I mean, I >> Well, [laughter] I GUESS I GUESS I am too in that sense.

[00:37:07]>> It's good to see you, counselor. Thank you. One thing for tomorrow. Yeah.

[00:37:10]Appreciate you. One thing for tomorrow that'll make you proud of America when we come back.

[00:37:20]That's one small step for man, one giant leap for mankind.

[00:37:28]>> Man on a moon.

[00:37:31]Boy, >> right now after seeing [music] it happen, knowing that it happened, it still seems like a dream.

[00:37:39]>> 57 years ago today, Neil Armstrong made history by being the first man to walk on the moon. July 20th, 1969, America was divided. The Vietnam War was raging.

[00:37:49]Richard Nixon was just elected.

[00:37:51]Woodstock would come a month later. But this one giant leap brought Americans together. Or maybe call it a small step.

[00:37:59]As we are back in a tough spot as America, we should maybe look back on this day in 1969. The only men to ever walk on the moon were Americans. And we are going to go back. America does great things, even Katie, when we are divided.

[00:38:12]It's one thing that we can all be very proud of.

[00:38:15]>> I'm going to not make a joke about the moon landing being fake. I [laughter] >> Well, by not making it, you kind of made it.

[00:38:22]>> No, it's an amazing amazing moment in history. And I love what you just said about Americans being the ones who have walked on the moon. And NASA has big plans to get Americans back to the moon and to Mars. So, something to look forward to uh in the future. Absolutely.

[00:38:35]>> Have a great show.

[00:38:35]>> Great to see you, Lyn. to the M.