IDF General Says What Arab Nations Are Secretly Telling Israel

[00:00:00]The US continues to strike Iran and more and more service members of the US are dying in the Middle East. We have a lot to discuss. Welcome everyone to this briefing brought to you by the Israel Defense and Security Forum. It's a great pleasure to be joined by the founder of IDSF, Brigadier General Amir Avivi.

[00:00:15]General, thank you for sitting with me today.

[00:00:17]>> My pleasure, Moshe.

[00:00:19]>> So, General, I know there are so many updates on all these different fronts, of course, including Iran. So, just jump in and share with us what you can. We see basically I think an American understanding. The president understands that this regime cannot be appeased.

[00:00:34]They're not going to agree to anything.

[00:00:36]And uh we need to move towards you know dismantling this axis the Shia axis. Um at the moment the US is focusing on two main issues. one is really controlling fully the straight of Hormos. Most of the attacks the US central command is doing is around the strait to really destroy all the capabilities of the Iranian regime to project power in the strait. And indeed we see as days go by, you know, it's the 10th day consecutively that the US is attacking.

[00:01:17]Um, we see the Iranian regime less and less capable to, you know, impact what's going on in the straight. We see ships moving through the straight, the US controlling the area. And, uh, Iranians are completely losing their grasp over the straight. And this is a big news because really this was their main leverage, you know, over the world and the world economy. So what the Iranian regime is doing, they're going to plan B. And plan B is basically shooting every single Arab country in the region. They're shooting Kuwait, Bahin, Qatar, Saud Saudi Arabia, Jordan, United Emirates.

[00:02:05]They're shooting American bases, but they're also shooting energy sites. And they're trying to create a disruption regionally and trying to get these countries to put a lot of pressure on the US to stop the operation. But I think that the impact is is exactly the opposite. These countries, they're not saying it out loud, but they're saying it to the US and Israel. Finish the job.

[00:02:33]Finish the job. destroy this regime.

[00:02:35]That's it. We are done. They're shooting at us. They're endangering us. Uh we see also Iran now um telling the Houthi to to be more proactive in Babel Mandab and disrupt the Saudis ability to sell oil.

[00:02:58]They're attacking Yan Boom. We talked a lot about this pipeline, oil pipeline that goes all the way to the Red Sea.

[00:03:07]Um, the Houthis are attacking this area.

[00:03:10]Also, the Iranians trying to undermine the ability of the Saudis to export oil and the Saudis are at the moment confronting directly the footies and fighting them. So, the whole area is in a fight and Amazing to see that at this point Israel is not part of it. The US is leading the fight against Iran.

[00:03:37]Iranians are not shooting Israel. They are very deterred and afraid to shoot us. I'm not saying they're not going to eventually, but at least for now they're not shooting Israel. Uh yesterday the prime minister held the cabinet meeting.

[00:03:53]The plans for the next step were presented and Israel is in full readiness to attack firstly this regime and bring it on sneeze. Um from what I know you know of the plans they're very decisive. The idea is that not just to continue hunting ballistic missiles or launchers or killing more revolutionary guards. is really completely crippling the regime's ability to sustain itself economically.

[00:04:28]It's done partially through the blockade, but there are serious targets in Iran that once we hit [snorts] this is game over. This regime will not be able to sustain itself anymore. I would assume that looking at basic humanitarian need of the Iranian people, they will be kept. But other than that, if there is a need to really create a reality where this regime cannot pay salaries anymore, cannot sustain all this ecosystem of almost a million revolutionary guards and other forces, it can definitely be done and uh we're not going to miss the opportunity to to finish the job and dismantle the the Shia axis. Um so the question is not if but when and how. So one option is Iranians actually shooting us and then us retaliating. We are waiting for this moment eager to attack. Uh the other option is an Israeli American coordination. If the president wants a sweep, decisive attack with Israel in order to make it faster and more little. Israel is more than ready to do that. He can choose to continue doing it by himself and do it for a longer time and it will take more time probably to see the results. So both options are on the table. either a continuous American operation or um a decisive American Israeli attack. Uh we might see a another ceasefire. I I hope we won't. I I can tell you one of the things that I I am really, you know, I think we missed a big opportunity. I can tell you that when we were attacking this 39 days uh today all assessment show that if we would have continued 2 3 weeks more this regime would have collapsed. I I I think the in this sense the president made a very big mistake.

[00:06:44]We could have been it could have been a game over already.

[00:06:49]uh but you know sometimes you have to try and learn from these mistakes and I think he he understands now better who we are dealing with now we need to get the job done done and bring down this regime and it's definitely possible it depends on Israel and the US were perfectly able to to do it and as we are advancing you know towards creating the terms or the fall of this uh regime and certainly at least not the the inability of the regime to project power. We see now in Lebanon things proceeding.

[00:07:29]Uh we see this week the first pilot in three different towns in South Lebanon where the US sent command and uh the Lebanese army are taking control of specific towns and clearing them from Hisbala and showing hopefully that they have some ability to create governance and sovereignty over specific areas.

[00:07:56]um this time it's not a UN and it's not international forces, it's SenCom involved in the process. So we would I would expect that if it's the US on the ground involved and not some international force as we saw before that this will be more effective.

[00:08:21]Israel is saying, "Look, we want to give this a chance, but we are keeping our right to defend ourselves and continue degrading as much as needed.

[00:08:31]Occasionally, we we see abala terror cell and we we kill them. But overall, at the moment, things in Lebanon are pretty quiet. We are holding the high ground in South Lebanon. We are controlling a vast network of tunnels where we know there are still a few dozen of his terrorists inside and we are blockading these tunnels. We can destroy them at any given moment. Um and probably will happen in a certain point but at the moment we are surrounding it and and and containing this area. Um so in Lebanon we are proactive and at the same time looking at Gaza um every single day we target terrorists in Gaza were trying to regroup and organize. Many of these terrorists are targeted are terrorists that have been proactive on the 7th of October.

[00:09:29]terrorists that crossed into into Israel and were part of the raping and the burning and the kidnapping of Israelis.

[00:09:36]We have a a specific unit called Neili.

[00:09:42]Neili in Hebrew is loyer.

[00:09:46]And this unit was created to hunt down every single Tamas terrorist that crossed the border on the 7th of October and participated in the massacre. every single day almost there is one more terrorist that we we managed to target.

[00:10:07]Um but there is also one thing we need to do. We have to remember that the kamas leadership is now outside of of Gaza. This week Kamas elected Khal Kaya as their leader.

[00:10:24]Khalil Kaya is in Qatar and he's leading now Hamas him and other figures who are in Qatar or Egypt there are part of the 7th of October all of them need to be eliminated and I hope that the prime minister instructed the Mossad and the army to prepare plans to to deal with them. I I think we owe this to the 1,200 people who were massacred and to our hostages to make sure that every single commander know and terrorist that was part of the 7th of October will be targeted. And when we talk about dismantling Hamas, first and foremost, we need to dismantle their leadership. And some of the leadership is not in Gaza. And the leading leadership at the moment is not in Gaza.

[00:11:23]And I want to emphasize something about that. Look, when people sit in Qatar in fivestar hotels, um it's much much easier for them to instruct terrorists to attack from Gaza because they are not paying the price.

[00:11:41]They are not under pressure. They are not being targeted in Gaza on a daily basis. So we saw throughout all the operations in the past that while people who are actually under pressure they are a bit more careful with what they do and the leadership outside of Gaza they don't care they tell them no you attack you do this you do that so the fact that Khalil Kaya was chosen and he's a very very radical person and he's sitting in his five-star hotel in Kata the chances that we see team pushing more and more so terror attacks from Gaza are high very high and we know that in the 30% that Hamas is controlling they're rebuilding themselves they are planning attacks and eventually there will be a moment where we won't really be effective enough in this containment we're are doing on the 30% and we'll have to go back on the offensive and and I think that really The challenge is to do it on time, not to wait until Hamas rebuild itself seriously. We need to be proactive and find the right moment to go in and destroy them. Um, we can continue doing it step by step as we did. We we went from 53% control of Gaza to 70%.

[00:13:06]So maybe in the coming months or two we should go to 80%. And we should do it gradually. We can do it swiftly and we can do it gradually. But we need to do it. We need to move forward in dismantling and and I I spoke with one of the um leading figures in Washington. I can tell you that all this board committee, peace committee, all these things they build around Gaza, it's it's not serious. There's nothing going on. Nobody is going to come and dismantle Hamas. There is no nothing serious going on the ground. The understanding we had is the right understanding. Without the full dismantling of Hamas and the demilitarization of the Gaza Strip, we cannot move forward with any plan. Um and um the one plan we need to execute once we destroy Kamas and demilitarize Gaza is let Gazans who want to leave Gaza leave. Many of them want to leave.

[00:14:05]We have to facilitate that. We cannot force anybody to leave but we can certainly facilitate for people who actually want to live and many many of those who are there in tents in the Masi and other places they're fed up of this place there is no future there and they want to leave and we will let them do so at their request.

[00:14:25]>> General thank you so much for sharing all of that. I I have a whole bunch of questions I want to ask. You really did cover a lot but just first for our viewers who are not fluent in Hebrew, you mentioned the acronym NEIL. that stands for Shak which is the name of that elite unit tracking down the these kamas murderers. So I just want to make sure everyone understands that that that term is very powerful in English. It translates as the eternal one of Israel will not lie or will not falter. And it's the very famous words that Samuel the prophet uttered both in reference to God as well as the Jewish people. So, it's not by chance that that was the name that was used. Um, okay. So, General, let's turn to Iran for a quick moment. So, you you make it seem like Israel is sitting on a target package, a list of targets in Iran, and in a heartbeat, Israel could kind of turn off the lights in Iran and change the direction of this war. And I guess I'm curious if the US Air Force is like 20 times the size of the Israeli air fleet, why doesn't the US just take these targets from Israel and finish the job themselves? Why why does it require potentially Israel's involvement for that next level? I heard from one of the leazison air force officers who is working with the US army that as much as we think that the IDF is limited by the you know rules of engagement and all this legal advisor and so on. Um, we, you know, Secretary Pete Hex talks a lot about that and the fact that you need to to enable the army to win the war and so on. Um, but what I learned is that the US army is much more limited than the Israeli army. They have a lot of constrictions.

[00:16:26]And I'm hoping that this will change and definitely I I I think that especially talking about infrastructure, bridges, refineries, um places like that, the US shouldn't have any problem to to deal with this.

[00:16:45]Um, but I can say that uh today the procedures and and the way the Israeli air force worked is much much more little and the capabilities are amazing and we're ready to use them. So at the moment um the US is much more focused on the straight. We are not dealing with the strait at all. H the US is also focused on degrading the ballistic missiles because they have the responsibility you know to defend the American bases which are based in all these Arab countries uh and also um to help the countries themselves which are targeted even the energy sites that are targeted. So the US is focused on the strait and is focused on the ballistic missile capabilities, the launchers. This city of missiles that are being used. These are the main targets. Israel created a very large bank of targets that were waiting to to attack. H the question is when when this will happen. Now we heard the prime minister, you know, and it a bit connects to the election. The prime minister was dealing with this internal issues with dele and the question whether they will hold primaries elections or not whether there will be democratic elections or there will be a committee that will appoint the people in delikud and what the prime minister said he said look there might be a scenario where we will return to fullscale war and then we won't have elections in the liquid we'll have to appoint the people now didn't say by chance. He understands that, you know, we there is a big chance that we're going to another round of like full scale attack with everything that goes with it. And uh if in the coming weeks, this will be the reality.

[00:18:54]H of course internally in the liquid it might do a change but looking at the upcoming elections we might arrive to the elections in a reality where Iran you know was defeated and uh we br we brought a collapse to to the the the regime or at least um we created a reality where uh they're not very effective.

[00:19:24]anymore and they cannot project the power things big things will happen in the coming weeks and it connects not only to the goals of war and I need to achieve them both countries have the same goals most of the goals are the same not all of them um but also both countries are going to elections on the 27th of October the US beginning of November and I believe that both leaders want to arrive strong to the elections. They want to show that, you know, they really manage to achieve big goals and make a change globally and in the region.

[00:20:06]For the US, it's also important to make a change in everything that has to do with the energy market. And this is why the US is very focused on taking over their control over the strait and uh projecting their power. And I believe that because the Houthis are now trying to be strapped also trade world trade eventually US and Israel will have to deal with the Houthis as well and hit them and hit them hard and not enable them to continue disrupting you know the trade globally. I can say that in the last three years, Israel has paid a big price talking about a lot port that is not functioning because of the Houthis. There's almost no trade through a lot. It's not something sustainable in the long term. This is a kazos bailey for war. Uh we went to war in the past because of uh the clothing of the uh Red Sea and uh we have to make sure that the Red Sea is open for trade not only us it's a global issue. So at certain points we have to deal with that as well.

[00:21:22]>> You know throughout this war there are key moments where you have told our viewers that big things are going to happen and your record is very good on that. So, we all need to focus in and wait uh for those things to happen. I want to go back now to a question about Gaza. You mentioned that right now Israel is holding about 70% and needs to get to 100% of control over Gaza. And I'm curious if you can kind of compare the consensus or the sentiment within the elites in the army or in the government about 100% control of Gaza.

[00:21:54]what what would they have thought on October 7th or even October 6th, 2023 uh versus the the general consensus of right now after years of both war and and your advocacy in this war. Do you think uh the Israeli leadership have changed their perspective on on controlling all of Gaza?

[00:22:16]>> Definitely. Um I think that today both the political leadership and the military leadership have changed a lot.

[00:22:26]We understand you know you you want to win a war you have to destroy your enemies. You have to conquer, you have to dismantle, you have to demilitarize um the army. He basically saying look if you want the kamas dismantled you need to go in and do the job. And this has nothing to do with the question what comes afterwards whether you do military government Israeli military control or once you do that and dismantle Hamas bring this international committee and you know execute the 20 points of Trump and you know create some alternative government. Israel basically has no motivation to rule militarily two million or million and a half gazans. We do have a motivation to destroy Kamas.

[00:23:19]We do have a motivation to demilitarize and and and destroy all this huge infrastructure. We have to remember in Gaza in the areas Kamas controls there is a whole city of tunnels. Most of these places we haven't even reached throughout the war. I mean talking about El Mawasi and the central camps and parts of Gaza Sishi. These are areas we didn't really operate and certainly not underground.

[00:23:45]Uh so it is a lot of work. Now we see we see even now in the 70% we control there are still tunnels are dismantling.

[00:23:54]It's a it's it's a huge huge project.

[00:23:57]It's very very complicated to find them to map them to destroy them. It can take years.

[00:24:05]So you cannot really completely eliminate the threat from Gaza without destroying Hamas uh and demilitarizing the Gaza street.

[00:24:18]Now maybe maybe even before you conquer everything they will surrender. We saw that when we went to Gaza City. When we went into Gaza City, after we took over half of Gaza City, they surrendered unconditionally.

[00:24:34]What does it mean? They said, "Okay, okay, guys, stop. Take your all your hostages, all of them. Uh, we agree that Israel will control Philadelphia and half of Gaza." I mean, think about what they agreed. They agreed that Israel will control half of Gaza, will control Philadelphia, will get all the hostages.

[00:24:55]They gave up their only leverage. And why? Because we were about to destroy Gaza city.

[00:25:02]So it means that if we do that again, if we say now for a million Gazans once again, we did that many times throughout the world, leave Gaza city, go to the Mawasi, now we are going in back to Gaza City.

[00:25:19]when we'll go into Gaza City and they will understand that Gaza which is really their symbol and their stronghold is going to be taken over and leveled down just like all the 70% it's it's game over.

[00:25:37]So you don't have to necessarily conquer 100% to get them to surrender. You can conquer 80% and they will surrender.

[00:25:44]Might be okay. Um and then they would say okay let us go out. I mean this will be their last chance if they see we are resolute. If they see that okay we're going all the way they are going to be completely destroyed. They might say look look wait let us you know get out of Gaza. Let us go to Turkey or to Kata try to save something from Kamas. This is what happened the last time. The Turks and Qataris said to Kamas, "Listen listen guys, you're going to be destroyed. You you you have to stop. You have to give them the hostages and so on." But we know where the point of pressure is. And this is the the city of Gaza. We we did that several times.

[00:26:23]There is no problem moving the people again out of the city of Gaza and going in. And when we will go in, we'll go with an army of robots, with explosive APCs, with drones, and and and we'll move systematically in a way that will minimize, you know, the danger to our soldiers.

[00:26:48]And we're simply going to destroy all this infrastructure systematically until they surrender unconditionally.

[00:26:56]And and it's not so complicated. and definitely something we can do. Uh it's a matter of decision. It's it's a matter of timing. Now we understand that at the moment we are focused on two main issues. One is Iran. This is the main issue and uh Lebanon.

[00:27:16]H this is what we're focused at the moment. H in the long term it will change and and I think that um you know we are getting close to elections. that I don't know on the 27th of October when we'll go to elections what will be the situation what we achieved and what we didn't achieve. I know one thing we must make sure that after the elections we have a government that continues the systematic path towards a decisive win on all fronts. We can do it depends on us and we're perfectly able to finish the job even if it takes some time but the momentum is ours but as we are speaking about dismantling the Shia axis with Iran and Hisbala and Hamas uh we see the rise of the Turkish Pakistani Qatari Julani axis the Muslim Brotherhood axis erh uh that is gaining strength.

[00:28:21]Um I'm not saying that tomorrow morning, you know, we have to confront another war, but it's moving towards a reality where we have to get ready to deal with this axis. H and the best way to do it is first dismant the Shia and create your own coalition by siding with the US and the moderate Sunni axis.

[00:28:49]um of UAE, of Bahrain, of Morocco, um Gibbanon possibly, you know, the day afterbala.

[00:28:58]We need to build our own coalition and get ready for the next challenges that will come.

[00:29:07]>> General, we're just about out of time, but I want to ask you one last critical question, which is about the IDF manpower crisis right now. Can you just very quickly give us your thoughts on on the status of that?

[00:29:20]>> Look, the IDF has serious shortage of manpower. We are missing at least 8,000 fighters and overall maybe around 15,000 soldiers in the regular army. And you know we can talk about a lot of good things the that the prime minister did in the war and the achievements of the government but when it comes to solving the issues of man power in the army 100% failure terra uh the government completely failed to find a solution even an intermediary solution you know something um it's a big disappointment looking at the ultra Orthodox leadership which in three years haven't really stepped forward and understand the the the gravity the the challenge that Israel is facing.

[00:30:17]Nobody asks ultra orthodox to send Torah studiers to the army. They were asked to send those who are not studying Torah.

[00:30:25]And more than 50% of the ultraorththodox society are not studying Torah and should have been instructed by the rabbis to go to the army and this didn't happen at le certainly not at the scale we would expect it to be. Big disappointment.

[00:30:44]Uh and this we will have to fix this.

[00:30:47]This is not a sustainable reality. The army need soldiers. Of course, it's not just the issue of ultraorththodox. You have other groups that are not enlisting enough. We need a country that serves in Israel. Everybody needs to serve eventually. Everybody will need to serve one one way or another.

[00:31:06]>> Brigadier General, I'm thank you for your leadership and all that you are doing for Israel and the Jewish people.

[00:31:11]Thank you to all of our viewers. Thank you to all of our supporters for tuning into this briefing. We will be back with you tomorrow, 10:00 a.m. Eastern time, 5:00 pm here in Israel. Until then, stay safe. Stay strong. Take care everyone.