Are Houthis Changing the Course of Iran-US War? | WION

[00:00:00]The US Iran conflict may be entering a more dangerous phase. The Houthis have announced a Saudi naval blockade while Washington has issued a fresh global security alert for Americans with reports of US military preparing for a possible ground offensive and rising regional tensions. The question is is a new front about to open to discuss whether the conflict is heading towards a wider regional war. We are being joined by Dr. Rohan Gunnar. He's a professor of security studies as at S.

[00:00:32]Raja Ratnam School of International Studies in Singapore and also an international security expert.

[00:00:38]Appreciate you Dr. Rohan for speaking to Vion. Uh getting straight to it. The Houthis have announced Saudi naval blockade while threatening it seems like a new front in US Iran war after largely staying out. The question is are the Houthis now changing the course of US Iran war?

[00:00:57]You are very correct. What we are witnessing is that the Houthi movement has a group called Ansar Allah and that is controlled by Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corp. At the behest of the Iranian regime, the Houthis are now threatening to block the straits of Homos. They have already threatened and warned the Saudi ships but this is going to escalate in the coming days and coming weeks and coming months. So there will be two straits that will be disrupted. One is the state of Homus and the other is Baba Mandal. And with both these [snorts] straits the shipping and trade being disrupted, it will affect 30% of global oil, gas and other prochemical supplies.

[00:01:54]>> Right. Point taken. Uh Dr. Rohan. Now reports suggest that US has a missile shortage for full-blown war with Iran.

[00:02:02]Now this comes at a time when reports also suggest that US could possibly be preparing for a possible ground offensive against Iran. The question is can the US essentially even afford one?

[00:02:13]At this stage >> the United States has expended its missile arsenal.

[00:02:22]United States and European countries have invested a lot in many wars including Ukraine. So the capacity for producing certain offensive and defensive weapons take time. In a short time, it is nearly impossible even for the United States that has a vast military industrial complex to replenish the losses and the wastage.

[00:02:55]And that is why the United States has delayed a fullscale return to war in Iran.

[00:03:04]Certainly the US will consider many options including the option of having ground troops.

[00:03:12]Although many American advisers have advised President Trump not to do so. It is very likely that there will be an escalation in the fight in the coming days.

[00:03:26]Yes. And the very fact that Trump has said that the killings of the American personnel is going to be avenged. Now shifting to what Iran has been doing all this time, it has essentially attempted to isolate the US from regional allies.

[00:03:40]But has targeting American positions now pushed some of the allies closer to US?

[00:03:47]>> You are very correct because Iran wants to be the continental power. Iran does not want American or European influence in the Gulf. [snorts] That is why Iran's IRGC specifically targeted the US bases. The Americans know that the Americans are determined to remain in the Gulf because the Gulf is the heartland of the world where most of the oil, gas, and other energy supplies are produced.

[00:04:23]But these US bases have taken a very significant beating despite having seven tier missile defense systems. The personnel in Jordan has been killed and Americans are very upset about it. And of course if there are more deaths of US personnel the American uh election the midterms will take a different tone.

[00:04:56]That is why President Trump is keen to bring this war to a successful conclusion. But of course Iran is determined to fight back and not hand over its enriched uranium to the Americans.

[00:05:13]>> Yes. And that being said, uh Dr. Rohan, we have strong statements coming in not just from the Iranian regime but also from President Trump himself. In fact, Peskia now says that this is nothing but a full-scale war with the US and US on the other hand has issued another worldwide security caution urging Americans to stay alert. Uh the question is would you call all of this mere rhetoric when it comes to those statements coming in not just from President Trump but even from the Iranian president who's said that this is a full-blown war.

[00:05:46]>> It is a full-blown war because of two reasons. One is that Iran attacked 12 countries in the Gulf during the US Israel Iran conflict. Second is Iran maintains a global partner and proxy networks of Shia and Sunni militias and increasingly Iran is using criminal proxies to fight. So because of that there's a real risk of terrorism and that is why the United States warned issued that threat alert that you very rightly referred to alerting American citizens against threats. These threats are not only against Americans but the allies and the friends of the United States.

[00:06:39]>> Yes Dr. Rohan point taken and of course there is a big question mark as to where is the war headed over the next four to five weeks and whether these threats coming in from the Iranian and the US side remain mere rhetoric or will it trigger a wider regional conflict.

[00:06:55]Appreciate you speaking to Von.

[00:06:58]>> Thank you very much. We are witnessing uh escalation in the threat. We are witnessing a tit for tat. We are witnessing what they say is eye for an eye. So Middle East will not return to peace in the short term and of course it will impact the global energy markets significantly and if it is not controlled there will be global recession and inflation.

[00:07:24]>> Yes. Yes. Appreciate you Dr. Rohan for speaking to us.

[00:07:28]>> Thank you.