Is It Time to Accumulate Altcoins for The Next Bull Run?

[00:00:00]There's been a siphoning of capital away for very good reasons, but that capital is going to flow back into uh blockchains and crypto start as the block space starts to get filled up and how's it going to be filled up? We've got tokenization that's going to increase a lot of activity and then the AI agents eventually will also start to arrive as well. So that's how I sort see the interplay. These two things are so interlin and [music] married to each other. It hasn't shown up in the data, but it's it's clear that that's the direction. Bitcoin is putting in a bare market pump that most analysts are fading. But is that itself the signal to start accumulating? And if so, which token should you be watching?

[00:00:35]Hello and welcome to the Milk Road Show, the podcast that knows that picking tops and bottoms is impossible, but it never stops anyone from trying. I'm your host, John Gill, and today is Wednesday, July 22nd, and we will be releasing this episode on Friday the 24th. Today, we are joined by Jamie Coots. Jaime is the chief crypto analyst at Real Vision and a longtime friend of Milk Road. Jaime has spent over 20 years in Tradfi and he built Bloomberg Intelligence's first crypto research product. Now Jaime's going to share his latest research on crypto with all of us. If you're excited for some good alpha on this episode, make sure you like and subscribe. Share this episode with somebody who's going to enjoy it. And just as a reminder, our podcast today is free and that would not be possible without our wonderful sponsors and partners at Securitize the Regulated Rails for tokenization and BitGet stocks 2.0 with real liquidity, real dividends. Keep an ear out for some more information about both of our great sponsors later in the show. And without further ado, welcome back to the Milk Road Show. Jamie, how are you, sir?

[00:01:29]>> I'm doing well, John. Nice to see you again.

[00:01:31]>> Yeah, nice to talk to you, too, man.

[00:01:32]It's been a while. I'm really excited to catch up. Bitcoin is trading at around 65K right now. I thought a good place to start the conversation would be with your most recent research report, which was titled Counter Trend, Not Corner Turned, and I wonder if you could give us sort of an overview of your your outlook in this report and just how you're seeing the markets right now.

[00:01:50]Yeah, thanks John. So, look, I mean, as analysts and you have, you know, daily guests on talking about tops and bottoms and picking tops and bottoms, and that's kind of why we're in the game to try and get those calls right. Um, but I think the best way to sort of look at it if you're a medium to long-term investor is just look at sort of a probabilistic framework. And the best way to to do that still remains to be um price driven. So when I look at the price action of Bitcoin and the rest of the digital asset space today, there's evidence that the bottom is forming, but like there has to be a a clear inflection point in terms of the momentum and the trend, right? So it comes back down to supply demand. And so just at real vision, we've got inflection points um that we've used for quite a while to sort of understand when that supply demand equation has flipped or the probabilities I should say cuz nothing's definite, but the probabilities h um are more in favor of a of a reversal of the current trend. So Bitcoin is 65,000 as you said. Uh it's been at it's been in the 60s since February, right? since we had that sort of capitulation low. Well, I call it a capitulation low because a lot of the indicators and the markers that I use to define bottoms uh come with sort of capitulation markers. And a lot of them fired in February. Um but I'll get into the reasons why I didn't feel like it was it was going to be the definitive bottom. But since then, we've been sort of tracking sideways more or less within a very defined range. We've had one counter trend rally of about 30%. Which is normal for Bitcoin bare markets. And so until we see a reversal and my levels are sort of now at around the highs the high7s um that the trend that the it has to inlect higher than that to show that the actual trend is reversed. So, what I'm just saying in in this latest report is that there is plenty of evidence building and if you're a short-term trader, you might want to actually take those signals. But look, if you're thinking about it on a medium to long-term basis and you're not trying to time the next sort of couple of months, then there's still a little bit more evidence that needs to form that we've actually inlected higher and we're in a a new bull market. But certainly, a lot of evidence is building and has been building.

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[00:04:44]I'll see you there. I want to talk about that evidence. A line that stood out to me in this report was across the market from Bitcoin down to leading alts, the bare market is losing momentum. And I wonder if you could tell us a little bit about how you're measuring that and what you're seeing happening here. What is some of that evidence that's building that case for you?

[00:05:01]>> Well, to be honest, it's it's primarily price. uh onchain data remains pretty bearish and I look at a bunch of metrics to try and get the breadth of onchain metrics to measure against the price itself and the breadth of onchain metrics for smart contract platforms and for defy is still broadly negative right so we haven't seen a major inflection across the board now there's definitely assets within each of those sectors that have seen reversals but I'm just talking on aggregate here Um but in terms of like in terms of price based signals you know you look at your a technical an analyst will use a bunch of momentum indicators and you've got RSIs and MACDs and things like that. One of the things that you can look for to say if a trend in this case a downtrend is decelerating is whether you start to see bullish divergences meaning the momentum indicators are not confirming the price.

[00:06:01]And once you start sort of moving out onto a longer term time frame, so using a weekly chart instead of a daily and certainly not a 4 hour because there's just too much noise in those charts. If you start to see those divergences appearing on the weekly charts, which is sort of my go-to for the longer term sort of secular trend, then you've got you've you've definitely got those technical signs that the that the uh downside at least the the the pressure on the on the downside is starting to ease. So [clears throat] divergences are not inflection points, they are a warning of an inflection point. And you know in inversely this is what I was saying in September of October of last year and at the time not getting not getting much positive feedback as you'd imagine when I was saying look Bitcoin has got this massive bearish divergence right we saw we've seen new highs into September. Now we went and made a new high um a couple weeks later in October which was the ultimate high for the cycle. Um, but at that time you looked at the weekly chart and just brought up a weekly RSI, you were seeing that in each consecutive high on the Bitcoin price from 2024 through to 2025, we had lower highs on the RSI and those patterns have always preceded a correction. So, you know, I've said this on many podcasts and I think it was on the even on the podcast last time I was on around. It's like my biggest regret was that I had various indicators that showing that um Bitcoin was going to correct. Um I didn't expect it to be the end of the cycle, so to speak. But if you're a long-term investor, I mean, these things were sort of blurred out, but like it it did happen. Like we didn't get a 30cent correction. We got the end of the cycle. We got 50% and 55% really from the to the lows. So they are warning signals. Um and on the flip side, we're now starting to see the same occur. And if you look back on the previous secular, sorry, the previous cycle lows, we've had these divergences, but it needs to be confirmed by a higher high and higher lows, and we're still not there yet. So, we're in this sort of we're in this wedge where the bottom seems to be forming, but we haven't really broken out on an inflection level to say that the trend, the downtrend is over. And one of the things I'll just say here, and I'm sure we're going to come to it later, is just, you know, the the global liquidity picture being sort of that one thing that I think is hanging over the head of markets.

[00:08:23]>> I want to come back to this question about global liquidity, but first I want to get some more information about this inflection point. Something that stood out to me in the report is you talk about the importance of ETF flows for Bitcoin and for, you know, the market direction, but you say that the the rate of change for ETF flows is more important than just the levels. And I wonder if you could elaborate a little bit more on that and what you're seeing there. Why is this such an important metric?

[00:08:45]>> It's become increasingly important. Um if you just look at sort of the onchain data alone, it really doesn't tell you the full picture anymore with Bitcoin.

[00:08:53]And also there's the the added issue um or the nuanced sort of aspect to onchain data with Bitcoin because of all the inscriptions and runes which is now sort of using up the block space, but it isn't really a monetary use of the protocol. So, a lot of the signal in the old onchain data um I think is lost.

[00:09:14]Now, that doesn't mean onchain data for Bitcoin doesn't matter. There's a a raft of different metrics like MVRV and profitability measures and what long-term holders are doing um versus short-term holders that are really instructive, especially for understanding the cycle lows and the cycle um tops or peaks. But the ETF data is obviously where a lot of value or a lot of um activity has migrated. that has a lot that has a much smaller onchain footprint. So looking at the ETF data obviously like and everyone has been doing this from from day one um is incredibly important but the there isn't really s it's very hard to derive a signal from ETF data. It's coincident data like it's doesn't have predictive value at least that's what I found anyway and if there if there was people would have been using it already and talking about it but what it is useful for is just to understand sort of inflection points. So when that [clears throat] rate of change um inlects lower or higher from an existing trend that's actually quite instructive.

[00:10:13]It's always coincided with this with the lows and the highs of Bitcoin price. So um what we've had is you know the biggest draw down um in ETF flows in in the short period that ETFs have been in existence for Bitcoin. Um but the the rate of change of that selling of ETF holders has started to slow down. Um and so that is always coincided with a pause in the price and that's exactly what we're seeing. Bitcoin at sort of um 65,000 off the lows. What's really interesting is if you look at um if you look at Ethereum then same pattern except for it's had a divergence in the ETF flows meaning the each consecutive low in the price has seen a a smaller uh or a less negative um movement in ETF lows. So there is still ETF selling but there is a divergence between the ETF lows or the ETF rate of change and the and the Bitcoin price.

[00:11:12]And that's interesting. Also, in terms of just net um net supply of the ETF selling, it's a lot less uh that on in Ethereum than it is in Bitcoin. Um so that is again a instructed data point.

[00:11:28]It doesn't mean anything until we sort of see a price, but it is starting to shape up that actually there is relative strength in ETF flows for Ethereum than there is in Bitcoin.

[00:11:40]>> Yeah. Yeah, and I'm glad you brought Ethereum into this because that was my next question was going to be about this. You spend a lot of time in the report talking about this. Um, you say Bitcoin and Ethereum make up somewhere around 65 70% of the top 100 uh index by market cap and both of them, not one but both of them have flipped bullish on the daily candle charts um but are still in a a bearish um a bearish uh channel trend I guess on the monthly candle charts. So it seems to me like again what you're saying is that we're starting to see this bend in a bullish direction. Walk me through what you're seeing there. What's the signal that that's sending you? What is that telling you about the market here?

[00:12:16]>> Yeah. So I mean you said monthly, but I think you meant weekly. The Yeah, the daily >> Yeah, the weekly charts are still bearish. Um at least the way I track it.

[00:12:25]So there's a there's a momentum indicator that all the real vision community has access to and dashboards now uh on the real vision site which sort of track this not only at the individual um asset level but also as a breadth measure. So how many what's the percentage of assets in the top 100 that are um you know on a bullish on a bullish signal which is um a quite a valuable data point. Um but the we we we had this similar signal on the daily.

[00:12:51]The dailies flipped bullish back in April, maybe even sort of March and April and that carried through until June and then we had the draw down. So the the point is really that the daily charts are quite noisy. You get these counter trend rallies and a counter trend rally of 20 to 30% everyone gets really really excited about and then it rolls over. That's a normal counter trend rally. So the daily charts are both bullish. Uh Ethereum flipped bullish um I think before Bitcoin as well which is just an interesting data point. But again, until they move through like the the major weekly inflection points, um at least from my sort of technical framework, um we're still in a we're still in a bare trend.

[00:13:31]>> Okay. So, some bullish momentum in the short term, the bearish trend is not totally broken yet. Uh another thing I saw in this report, you called the DeFi sector a quote sneaky outperformer. uh and I wanted to get your thoughts on what that means and and is there anything in particular in the DeFi sector that has been carrying that bulk of that outperformance or is it just the whole sector has been strong? What's going on there?

[00:13:53]>> Yeah, so there's been some outperformance from the Dexes. Um but you have to sort of put this into context like DeFi is a higher beta sector within the crypto um you know the the top 100 market cap which is an index that I've created and and track. But the snapback has been sharper in the last 30 days in DeFi names. So we've seen some, you know, pretty good performer like unis swap which has been a a chronic underperformer. Um has started to do reasonably well. RBY started to break the back of its um downtrend. But these are all still again on the daily on the daily um patterns, but they did reach pretty extreme lows in terms of the pullbacks and we started to see bullish diver divergences with those momentum indicators. Um but they have outperformed as a group. So I track the sectors. So smart contract platforms versus, you know, web 3 infrastructure versus smart contract platforms, L1's, all twos, all that sort of stuff. When you look at the last 30 days, DeFi has um been clearly the standout performer.

[00:14:50]Um [clears throat] and I mean my thoughts on that like again like just from a purely technical basis, um they've been a they look like a good short-term trade, but you got to realize that again we're sitting within this sort of overarching bearish framework on the longer time frames. But what I think is a catalyst here is we are starting to see and I've written about this as well John like we're starting to see some really important structural tailwinds start to coalesce and it's not the usual not the usual tailwinds in terms of demand I shouldn't say usual what the demand is coming from new things like it's coming from tokenization and eventually it'll be AI agents these are new things but that's the demand side this thing that over here called the supply side right?

[00:15:36]Like no one in crypto has really tried to address or we've tried to ignore to our detriment, you know, as investors because the supply side of tokens in the ecosystem has been the biggest drag on performance. And there's different ways you can measure that. You can measure that with the way that new issuance was conducted through the VCs and the listings. These high FTV, lowflat um highly inflated valuations that were brought to market which just created as soon as they come out. the massive vesting schedules that um these tokens incurred, the high inflation rates that were paid to validators to secure the networks or uh the protocols and also the lack of value acrruel and the tokconomics policies. All these things were sort of like nice to haves if you're investing in the space. I mean, Ethereum kind of pioneered the way with EIP15.9 back in the last cycle, but really it's been an afterthought. And now we're starting to see a lot of tokens start to shift, start to talk about revenue, uh, start to talk about value acrruel. In the case of something like NIA, it said, why are we paying 5% validators? I think we can keep our network secure at 2.5%.

[00:16:52]In fact, we're going to actually maybe even lower that even further over time.

[00:16:56]So suddenly you've got the supply discipline plus sorry might I just also add if clarity ever gets passed John that will also have clarity around um tokconomics and structures and reporting and disclosures and transparency that's desperately needed. You put all that together and protocols start to um implement supply discipline better tokconomics and then you've got really the tailwinds all coalesing. You've got the demand from tokenization AI agents eventually and then you've got the supply side because really the last let's call it the last 8 years in crypto and blockchains what's been the primary focus for let's say the L1's it's about scaling they needed to scale at in the last in that last cycle in 2020 2021 congestion on Ethereum killed the cycle gas at 100 like no one was ever going to use a blockchain when they were paying 100 bucks in gas so it's all been about scaling Ethereum went on this whole road map of scaling through L2s and all the other chains have have continued to improve to the point now that transaction costs have essentially moving to zero or very very um nominal but they never address the supply side and that's starting to change and I think for the protocols and the L1s that continue to um issue at high inflation rates that have these v the large overhangs of vesting um supply they will underperform because hyperlquid has really shown the way of what to do. And I think for the rest of the space, um, they're going to start looking at their own policies. And I can't, you know, this is just a a thesis. I think the longer this goes on and you don't have a proper tokconomics, um, or a stronger value acrruel policy in place, you will underperform those tokens that do.

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[00:19:54]>> Yeah, and I strongly agree and I think that it's been interesting to see the industry solve these problems one at a time. Like the scaling problem was a big focus. We seem to have gotten there. Now there's a supply side problem, but we're we're seeing like like you said, Near is addressing that. Salana has several proposals to deal with that. Um Ethereum, I think, is working through this in their own way. I interviewed Sid Powell from Maple Finance about how the syrup token on Maple Finance, they've passed some changes to their tokconomics, too. So, I have seen a lot of response to that and I do hope that the industry figures that out. Uh Jamie, I I got to move us to uh to macro to liquidity to that whole picture here because I think that a lot of people want to hear your thoughts on this. Um you know, let's start with Bitcoin here.

[00:20:33]You wrote about this in your most recent report. You said that Bitcoin is fighting a two-front war for capital.

[00:20:39]One war is with gold and silver on one side. The other war is with the NASDAQ 100 and tech and AI on the other side.

[00:20:45]Talk me through this framework for thinking about this liquidity war that Bitcoin's fighting and when do you think Bitcoin is going to start winning this battle? Yeah. So I mean there's the there's the debasement trade [clears throat] where you know the world sort of bifrocates between Bitcoin and say gold essentially and then you've got the um sort of the technology trade and at the moment AI is dominating that space and with good reason. I mean it's the most transformative technology we've ever seen. Um, so Bitcoin needs to start showing outperformance versus both of those sectors, but also needs to start showing out performance on an absolute basis because you don't want to be if you're thinking about in terms of absolute returns, you want to be buying the asset that is outperforming other assets but also going up. Otherwise, you're just going down, right? Like you're you're still getting negative returns. So, you know, for that's the that's the the combination that we need.

[00:21:43]And ETF ETF flows are a good way to track um that switch between gold and silver because for Bitcoin, ETFs are are now becoming like the primary channel for access for gold and silver or for gold I should just talk about. Um ETFs are important but not the only part of the equation, but you do get signal between that. with tech you can't ETF flows don't really matter that much people just buy stocks right so you continue to track the demand through you know the the large cap names um so you know I think that this AI trade is going through spits and spurs because of like uh everyone's concerned now about the open source models and um capex investment I think it's still going to take some time like for a lot of that a lot of that capital to rotate back into um rotate back into Bitcoin. But we're starting to see on the daily charts again that go back to the sort of like the technical framework. We're starting to see the outperformance of Bitcoin on the relative charts to the NASDAQ on the daily time frame. Um which is I think the first time in like you know six or seven months. Um but again like on the higher time frame it's still very clear that the NASDAQ is um in the ascendancy.

[00:23:02]So that's what we that's what we really need to see. Um yeah.

[00:23:05]>> Gotcha. And I think that that framing is something that is helpful because we've seen the effects of this for a long time, but just like having it spelled out like that is is I think a good way to think about it. How do you think about this relationship between AI and crypto? Because it's obviously pulled a lot of capital and attention away from the digital asset industry. But at some point, you know, it seems like as AI agents start to come online and the agentic economy rises, there's going to be a huge amount of demand for digital assets that come from from the agentic economy. How do you think about that like the the the interplay between these two? What are you seeing there that's got your attention, if anything?

[00:23:40]>> I I I believe it's one of the biggest structural tailwinds for the asset class and why investors who, you know, are not looking at this space need to start taking notice of what's happening. Now, there's a bit of a there's there's a gap between the narrative and reality right now because if you look at X42, which is that the Aentic payment protocol, um there's certainly transactions going through. Um but in terms of like total value, it's still quite small. In fact, it it's actually been declining over the last couple of months. Um there was a big run up in activity at the end of last year which I suspect was really just a lot of testing on base because that's where a lot of the activity is taking place but also Salana but really this year it hasn't inflected higher.

[00:24:24]It's um sort of it dropped and then it's been going pretty much sideways sideways down. Um that's a good way to sort of just track the activity as to whether the the the the reality is catching up to the narrative. Um but I do believe ultimately next 12 to 18 months that is going to well I think it's going to inflict a lot um sooner than that but like in terms of it becoming noticeable mainstream everyone's talking about it probably 12 to 18 months which is a little bit longer than what I originally thought. I thought really by the end of this year we'd start to see that pick up and it may still do. there may just be an inflection point um with a new product release, a new model, a new consumer integration that just makes everything far more easy for a lot more people. Um but I think it's definitely it's definitely coming and it's a reason why you want to start looking and thinking about crypto as like the the infrastructure but also the application layer for the models themselves, the you know the AI infrastructure.

[00:25:25]>> Okay, so structurally bullish but still looking for the inflection point there.

[00:25:29]it's on the horizon for the moment. Um, another thing that I got to ask you about is that you said in this report Bitcoin has been widely out of step with global liquidity. Um, and I'd really like to hear your updated analysis on this and if you see Bitcoin, you know, rejoining that trend or just like what are your thoughts around this decoupling that we've seen and how long do you think this will continue? Yeah. So the the mechanism of of liquidity and the the transmission mechanism of global liquidity into asset prices is very different this cycle or this current sort of epoch relative to the past. And I sort of delineate between the quantitative easing like the central bank liquidity era which was 2009 all the way up to you know 2022 and the recent cycle. Now most of the liquidity is now being funneled through the US government through through the Treasury and now through the banks. The banks weren't a major player because they were constrained in terms of their their credit activities um after Frank Dodd and a lot of the the rules that were put in place after the GFC. The Trump administration has come in in like 2024, 2025 and started to change, you know, the the changes to the SLR so that banks can basically now buy more treasuries and use that for fractional reserve lending and increase and that has definitely funneled a lot of capital into the the AI capex buildout which has been reflected in the prices of AI stocks and that capital has siphoned a lot of attention away from Bitcoin and crypto. So um now also we can't just blame AI for siphoning capital away. Did crypto live up to the expectations in the last cycle in terms of use cases and users? Well most in certainly in 2023 and 2024 all the activity on on on the metrics was moving in the right direction. By middle of last year it started to fade. And that's partially because a lot of the activity in blockchains up to this point is speculative, right? It's the using of decks. It's the using of leverage. And soon as another trade came along, a lot of that value sort of flowed out. So that's a problem for blockchains because you can't just rely on the speculative economy to drive prices. Although it's, you know, it's a critical part of our lives. Like that's not going away as long as they are debasing currency and stealing our time and value. But the there needs to be more structural drivers. And you know, just in time there is structural drivers. there's the stable coin payment layer and [clears throat] then there's the agentic economy. And so that's I think the structural reasons that crypto hasn't had as an investment case. So that's how I you know the there's been a siphoning of capital away for very good reasons.

[00:28:14]But that capital is going to flow back into u blockchains and crypto start as the block space starts to get filled up and how's it going to be filled up?

[00:28:21]we've got tokenization that's going to increase a lot of activity and then the AI agents eventually will also start to arrive as well. So that's how I sort of see the interplay. These two things are so interlin and married to each other.

[00:28:34]It hasn't shown up in the data, but it's it's clear that that's the direction.

[00:28:37]And so obviously a portfolio should have exposure to both of these asset classes.

[00:28:42]>> I want to hear what you've got your eye on to get into your portfolio or what's in it now if you've already started this accumulation process. But um the first question I want to get here is uh what are you looking for as a signal that we have turned the corner? Your your report was called countertrend not corner turned. Is there a specific corner you're looking for for us to turn? Is it something onchain? Is it ETF flows? Is it something else? What are you watching for there or is it sort of like a you'll know it when you see it sort of thing?

[00:29:07][laughter] >> So I think um Bitcoin over sort of in the high7s would would be the inflection point on the on the weekly charts. Um, and then as long as we're starting to see that on the cross charts with the NASDAQ and gold, I think then you've got the technical reasons, ETF flows should be should turn positive by that stage. I don't think Bitcoin gets to 70 um to high7s without ETF flows being positive.

[00:29:32]Again, so net buys from sort of a net deficit right now. onchain data is very interlin with prices but there there should be a and what I mean by that is prices go up generally it brings more activity into the space um which makes onchain data a harder sort of um it's a it's a data set which is very intertwined it's like this correlation between price but there is ways to sort of think about whether the onchain data is having some signal and that's the breadth of measures in the space so if you look stable coin transa transactions or transfers inflecting higher as well as the number of applications growing again, the number of daily active users growing again. Um, and all these things coalesing and moving ahead of price. Uh, then you've got a very strong confluence of like real fundamental activity happening, prices also breaking through important resistance levels where people are looking to sell. And then you've got the the combination of everything that would that would definitely say that like you know that a new bull cycle has has started.

[00:30:36]>> Okay. So a technical breakout and then a confluence of indicators to show that there's strength supporting it. Um I think that makes a lot of sense there.

[00:30:43]What are the tokens? What are the projects you're watching for to accumulate and have you started accumulating or are you still waiting and and holding off for this confirmation? How are you thinking through this in your portfolio? Because I I know you must be getting tons of questions from your community just like I am. uh you know where where are you looking and are you already deploying capital or are you still waiting for confirmation?

[00:31:01]>> No, I've started to wade back in and add and I mean I've been running the biggest cash position that I've had for many years throughout 2026. So I've started deploying that cash. the I mean it's in crypto there's really there's really smart contract platforms and DeFi protocols and there's a few tokens in between like what's happening in the AI space of Venice and a couple of others it's interesting but let's just I sort of tend to focus on on the main ones um so I've been adding to um the you know the top L1's and I've been taking positions in some of the the blue chip um DeFi protocols that are down 70 80% um and are showing some relative outperformance, but I've still kept cash um for a potentially another, you know, another stab at this at the end of the year based on what I still see as pro a problematic global liquidity situation.

[00:31:57]Um, Bitcoin's sort of, I think, front running um this a little bit. So, it's got a bit more padding in the price in terms of like, you know, would it do another sort of 60 to 70% decline if global liquidity um becomes really problematic? Um I don't think so. So, but I have got a little bit because I'm hedging my bets a little bit. Um but if we get those technical and um fundamental factors, then I'll deploy all that cash because I think that's enough signal for me. Um but just on the global liquidity front, you know, my view is like different from everyone else has got their sort of interpretations of this. The one thing that concerns me um is that debt is rising faster than than liquidity. So liquidity can continue to go higher but if debt is outpacing the growth in liquidity there is a mismatch there which ultimately resolves itself in much higher interest rates or a something happening in financial markets that requires the authorities to step in and add more liquidity. Um and so that is still on the horizon. You've got massive capex buildout which is being debt funded now. they the the hyperscalers are pulling back on their buybacks for so that's a that's a removal of an equity bid that's there that has always been there because they use their free cash flow to buy back stock so that's a major um a major issue the capex um through debt issuance needs to be funded that's a capital drain and then the US government has one of its biggest issuance years next year that needs to be funded as well without interest rates climbing too high and they're already at um record highs as a as a rel as a percentage of GDP.

[00:33:40]So these are things that I'm just highlighting that you got to be aware of over the next sort of 6 to 12 months and maybe it maybe it turns out to be a big fur fee and nothing happens but like these are like these are things that have always been important and I think they continue to be important um and ultimately we we get more liquidity but it could be a few more bumps in the road.

[00:34:00]>> Okay. So, there are some highle macro concerns you're still watching that are very real for later this year. But overall, what I'm hearing you saying is that you've got a ton of cash. You are deploying back into crypto, but you're sticking to blue chips in L1's DeFi.

[00:34:14]You're not getting to generate yet. Um, but is that about the this case for you right now? Also, I another question to tack on to that one. Are you still bullish on Salana? Because I've been accused of becoming Ethereum and I'm still very bullish on Salana and a lot of other projects, but a lot of people are fing Salana right now. Is Salana one of the ones you're watching for this next bull market and and what's the thesis for you on that?

[00:34:33]>> Well, John, you've been around the space for long enough. I mean, as soon as you say something, you're going to get be attacked on one side from one community or many communities. So, it sort of goes with the uh it goes with the territory, but no, I'm bullish on I'm bullish on Salana. I mean, their technical road map is um I think is is excellent. um and the upgrades that they're putting through will position them really well for the tokenization wave because you've got to be able to handle huge amounts of volume on chain. Um and I think I mean look you just need to look at where the capital is concentrating and [clears throat] there's very few chains which legitimately uh can be called like you know you know tier one blockchains Ethereum and Salana are the two um and that are sufficiently decentralized. Um, so no, I'm I'm bullish on uh Salana and I think um you know I've been adding to that.

[00:35:24]>> Okay. Well, good. I'm glad we uh have made some enemies here at the end of the podcast and at least pissed off one community somewhere. Uh Jamie, I'm not going to make you go through your whole portfolio, but I really do appreciate you coming on giving us an updated outlook on what you're seeing in the markets and just sharing this analysis with us because I know everybody at Milk Road is a big fan of your work and you know in the broader industry as well.

[00:35:44]So, thanks for being on the Milk Road Show. Where can we send people to find more of you and your work online?

[00:35:48]>> Uh, realvision.com. Um, and just on Twitter at jamie1coots.

[00:35:53]>> Awesome. Well, yeah, I spent last night reading, I think, about half a dozen of your most recent reports. So, I can vouch for this. They're full of alpha.

[00:35:59]They're wonderful reads. Um, so Jamie, thanks again for being here. I'm looking forward to catching up with you on our next show.

[00:36:04]>> Thanks, John. Always a pleasure, mine.

[00:36:06]Take care.

[00:36:06]>> And thank you all for joining us. I hope you all learned something today. So, until next time, stay safe, stay educated, stay bullish, and we will see you all on the next episode of the Milkro Show. Thanks for being here everyone.

[00:36:15]>> Bye.

[00:36:16]>> Want insights on what's moving crypto markets and [music] how we're trading each event? Subscribe to our channel and join the Milkro Daily and Pro newsletters and start investing like the [music] top 1%. This show is for educational purposes only. Nothing we say is financial advice. Investing is risky. Never invest more than you can afford to lose.