'No better way' to end US-Iran war than diplomacy: Martin Griffiths

[00:00:00]Now, as the conflict between the US and Iran escalates, diplomatic efforts are continuing. On Monday, Iran's foreign ministry spokesperson said regional mediators are actively engaged. Let's take a closer look at a timeline of events. On June 15th, US and Iranian negotiators agreed an interim deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and end hostilities.

[00:00:24]Then, a few days later, both sides signed a memorandum of understanding towards ending the war, brokered by Pakistan with the help of regional powers. It included a 60-day ceasefire that would pave the way for further talks, but it collapsed after Iran was accused of attacking commercial vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz.

[00:00:45]The latest round of escalations began on July 8th.

[00:00:50]And by July 18th, Iran had said it was suspending its commitments under last month's MOU, accusing the US of violating the ceasefire.

[00:01:05]Joining us now to discuss this and the latest diplomatic efforts is Martin Griffiths, who's the director of Mediation Group International and a former United Nations humanitarian chief. He's live from Geneva. Mr. Griffiths, thank you so much for your time on Al Jazeera. After 11 consecutive nights of US strikes inside Iran and President Trump's explicit threat to bomb bridges or plants in Iran, do we still have a window for diplomacy or have recent events made that far more difficult?

[00:01:35]>> Well, I think recent events have in a sense made it more difficult because I was actually um talking to you to you and your channel during the Burgenstock meetings, um which were didn't work and then did work and then haven't worked.

[00:01:51]And I think that has very damaging uh effect on the potential for diplomacy.

[00:01:56]However, and this is of course passion to me, um there's no better way to resolve a war than through diplomacy.

[00:02:04]It's got to be win-win.

[00:02:06]It can't be win-lose despite the comments that we hear every day.

[00:02:11]And that means diplomacy and mediation.

[00:02:14]>> You've mediated across continents, Mr. Griffith. In your experience, what um psychological thresholds must be crossed before an adversary like Iran will sit down seriously uh to talk?

[00:02:29]>> They need to think they have no other option.

[00:02:33]And that And that sense they need to think in the phrases that we're hearing these days, they need to think they have lost.

[00:02:40]And it's perfectly clear, as you know better than me, that they don't think that.

[00:02:45]Um it's also true for the US, you know. I mean, it's just I don't choose between these two parties.

[00:02:51]But they need to think and there's a phrase, by the way, in the mediation community, um which may be relevant here, a mutually hurting stalemate. So, you have a stalemate which hurts both and stops both thinking that a pursuit of war is going to change their position.

[00:03:10]I think we've got to that point in the war now between the US and Iran. And I think that is the one of the few positive things that I can think of at the moment that's happening in that war.

[00:03:22]>> Pakistan and Qatar, as you know, have proposed a 10-day ceasefire to create space for renewed diplomacy.

[00:03:30]Uh who do you see today as the real interlocutors here in these back channels that are clearly happening?

[00:03:36]Who's in out of the running in terms of of viable mediators right now?

[00:03:43]>> Well, I suppose Oman is, for whom I have the greatest respect, had a lot to do with them in the past.

[00:03:50]Um but because not because of any lack of talent, not at all, but because they they have a position naturally enough in terms of geography in the Straits of Hormuz issue.

[00:04:02]Oman Oman was doing a wonderful job before the war started, then were cast out, and I think they probably aren't the the significant mediation force that they were.

[00:04:13]I think Pakistan, uh who who which is a great new arrival, by the way, on the mediation scene, because we haven't uh uh seen them do this stuff before.

[00:04:22]But they pass messages firmly between the parties, and they were ever vigilant, and they're ever energetic, but it's not enough.

[00:04:31]Because what you need in the mediator, or mediators, I think in this case, as I will explain, you need um a knowledge of the principles, which is essentially neutrality, and meeting all people, and looking for win-win, and not imposing a solution. Those are the familiar attributes of a mediator. But also the the other one is leverage.

[00:04:54]>> And so, which country do you see having those attributes right now? Which country or actor has those attributes in your view?

[00:05:01]>> Well, I think Qatar still does.

[00:05:03]I'm a big fan of Sheikh Mohammed.

[00:05:05]Uh he brought Berganstock together. I think he does, but I would ask everybody to consider the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.

[00:05:14]I know them well from Yemen, where I thought they were brilliant, the way they back channeled and did things with the Houthis, back in my day, 2020, 2019.

[00:05:23]Um they also have huge reach in the Gulf region, in the Arab region.

[00:05:29]They have just signed a deal with President Trump on the nuclear issue. I think they are an obvious candidate to be, in my view, one of the two that can bring this to the table and see it to its end.

[00:05:43]>> Mr. Griffiths, let's focus on the issues now, because you mentioned the nuclear issue. The past talks, the US-Iran talks, have collapsed over enrichment limits and the access to the Strait of Hormuz.

[00:05:56]If you were drafting a ceasefire, a 10-day ceasefire, let's say today, what three concrete verifiable clauses would you insist on to prevent another collapse?

[00:06:10]>> I I put the straits and the ship movements in the straits right at the top.

[00:06:15]Um because I think it's the visual evidence of ships being shot down, not allowed to move, which is the tangible dis- destroyer of confidence in what's going on in the talks.

[00:06:30]So, I think there has to be one that's fixed up before talks, a way in which to break that mold.

[00:06:38]To have ships move safely, and obviously that means without tolls, and I know it's very difficult because all sides have very strong views. That seems to me to be the prime one. The second one, >> Right.

[00:06:49]>> I believe has to be something to do with frozen assets.

[00:06:52]Um which Iran, I know, is very insistent on, and there needs to be a move, and the US has been open to this, to signally show uh a thawing of frozen assets, a release of them, but within a time period which is not the end of the process, but which encourages the process.

[00:07:13]That's the That's the second, and the third, I believe strongly in the notion, and Mr. Trump put it in his MOU, of and I would say this is only humanitarian, of a reconstruction phase.

[00:07:26]We talked about it in Gaza, it's never come to never come to grips.

[00:07:32]It was talked about in the MOU with Iran and US, it's never come.

[00:07:37]It's very, very important for the main people who are wanting peace are the people of Iran and I think in a very different way the US.

[00:07:47]They will be encouraged if their needs are reflected.

[00:07:51]>> You've argued, Mr. Griffith, that it's much easier to stop a war than to build peace.

[00:07:57]In this context, what would a minimal stop the war deal look like and what would a realistic build-up peace road map require beyond an agreement on the street, for example?

[00:08:12]>> Look, I think the problem has been in the processes so far, not just in in in the case of Iran and the US, but elsewhere, has been to say, "We'll have a 10-day ceasefire and then we'll go We've got 10 days notice before we need to do something else."

[00:08:28]So, it's always about conditionality.

[00:08:31]It's always about a deadline. That doesn't make good agreements, basically.

[00:08:38]And a ceasefire for 10 days, how is it to be monitored? Who's going to do the dispute resolution? It's not easy, I know. I've done it a lot elsewhere, but often not succeeding.

[00:08:49]So, I think what we need to do, to directly answer your question, ma'am, is to to move towards understanding the process of consultation, senior consultation, you know, empowered consultation, to see what the end state would look like and what the process would look like. You know, I mediated the Black Sea grain initiative, as you may know, uh for the UN.

[00:09:14]And the issue there was process.

[00:09:17]We didn't declare a ceasefire at the beginning. We had it at the end.

[00:09:20]But the issue there was process and process is about building trust, difficult as that may sound these days, building trust, building the win-win aspect, which was clearly the case in the Black Sea, and should be the case here, especially with the Gulf region, stop being bombed by Iran and so forth.

[00:09:41]But also, a vision as to how the region is going to work together. I think that perhaps I'm a bit um liberal in this um is that those things are more important to create the foundation for proper talks than for example a swift deal on nuclear, which is very difficult, or on a ceasefire and so forth. We need to look at the humanity the the the people version of what's going to happen.

[00:10:13]>> Uh briefly uh if I may if God forbid this war was to continue for months, what do you see as the most dangerous unintended consequence, not just for the Gulf region, but for the broader rules-based order and the future of mediation itself?

[00:10:32]>> Well, I think you've just touched on it there at the end. The future mediation is on trial here.

[00:10:38]And it hasn't worked very well. And there are reasons for that, which are not being clearly discussed or admitted.

[00:10:45]And they're that's always the case. I've done a lot myself. You don't come come out of it very easily.

[00:10:52]But mediation needs to be professional, needs to be consistent, it can't be changing its mind all the time, as we have seen here, and it needs to be trusted.

[00:11:02]That's the first thing, hence your question earlier about who might be the mediator or mediators. Second thing, uh I think we have to provide an alternative vision for the peoples of the US and Iran.

[00:11:19]It's true in every conflict, you know, I've I've been involved in many. It's true in every conflict, a hope for a future life for them and their families, for uh you know, costs at the pump in America going down and so forth, which will say to them, "We want to buy into this deal."

[00:11:37]>> Okay. Mr. Griffith, we're going to leave it there. Thank you so much for talking to us. We really appreciate your insight into this. Martin Griffith, former UN humanitarian chief and also the director of Mediation Group International joining us there from Geneva. We appreciate your time.

[00:11:52]>> Thank you. Thank you.