Ukraine's military shake-up: Zelenskyy dismisses commander-in-chief Syrskyi | DW News

[00:00:01]Ukraine's president has just fired a second security chief in a week. Now, the first was Defense Minister Mikailo Federov, and his sacking prompted protests with Ukrainians calling for his reinstatement. Instead, the person they wanted removed was Army Commander-in-Chief Alexander Cerski.

[00:00:20]Now, President Vadimir Zalinski has granted that latter request. It's the biggest shakeup of Ukraine's military leadership in years, and it's happening in the middle of a war in which Ukraine had recently seen some momentum.

[00:00:36]Now, how did this shakeup come about, and what does it mean for the war?

[00:00:39]That's what we want to find out with Andrew Danieri. He is associate director of the Atlantic Council's Eurasia Center. Now, Andrew, before we get into the details, uh maybe you could give us your first impressions and just how significant this is.

[00:00:55]Well, great to be with you. I think it's absolutely a big moment in Ukraine's defense against Russia going on uh almost 4 and a half years now of the full-scale invasion and then something like 12 since Russia started this war.

[00:01:12]Um the two two of the men we're going to talk about I think today one of them being Alexander Searski was a major contributor on the Ukrainian side um back when the war began 12 years ago he was elevated to be the commanderin-chief and now he's out after a range of of disputes within Ukraine's mil military command structure.

[00:01:34]>> Right. So uh let's uh listen to how President Zalinski explained this decision to to fire his army chief.

[00:01:43]I am grateful to Alexander Serski and every one of our soldiers for Ukraine's strong frontline positions. I am grateful to Mikail Japati for having precisely the same view together with Cerski and the general chief of staff.

[00:01:56]We talked about further service formats and the correct transfer of affairs.

[00:02:02]>> So Andrew maybe remind us who General Serski is and what he stands for.

[00:02:10]So Alexander Sirkid is he's a 60-some general, one of Ukraine's top military officials for a number of years now. He was educated actually in Moscow in their militarymies in the 1980s under the Soviet Union and grew to prominence in Ukraine um in helping Ukraine defend itself against uh Russianbacked uh invaders back in 2014 and and really had a quite a prominent and significant role in helping Ukraine successfully defend itself there. Since then, uh, in 2022, when the Russians tried to take Kev, uh, General Searski was a major element of Kev's successful defense and driving the Russians out of these towns that, uh, you know, we now know very well, like Bha, where Russia committed tons of of atrocities. And then he also uh played a major role in the east in the defense of the small town called Bachmoot, which for a while was a stronghold. Um and he actually got some criticism for doing so because he was said to not have taken enough care uh with soldiers lives and and caring for their safety. And that's one of the big points of criticism and why lots of people wanted him out is because for all his effectiveness uh he took kind of a Soviet approach valuing positions over soldiers lives.

[00:03:40]>> Right. So going from hero to being forced out in in just about two years.

[00:03:45]And I'm just wondering um it was just over a week ago President Zilinski was backing him. And then uh you know what's changed?

[00:03:55]>> I think the big thing that's changed is we've seen public peaceful outcry from everyday Ukrainians. Now, I'm sure we'll we'll get to this as well, but these protests began last week after Zilinsky made the decision to fire the head of the civilian defense, uh, the Minister of Defense, Mail Federov. And these protests were initially about, oh, can we please return this excellent defense minister who's helped make a technological leap, I would say, uh, in Ukraine's defense against Russia. and they turned into chance of sirski out um and trying to modernize Ukraine's defense as well along the lines that Fedorov was trying uh to set them up with. So I think it's it's a combination of criticism of Suski's longtime tactics coming to a head combined with a really controversial personnel decision by Zilinski in the Ministry of Defense which stemmed from a disagreement between Fedorov and Sirki about how the war should be prosecuted.

[00:04:57]just wondering this kind of uh rift between Fedrav and and Serski, does this reflect uh something bigger um within the Ukrainian leadership?

[00:05:10]>> Well, I think this is something that's common in in a lots of governments, you know, the these kinds of different approaches to solving really complex problems. Sort of a a team of rivals in in a way. I mean, Sudski is the war hero who's defended Ukraine for more than 12 years and has done so quite effectively in a lot of ways. Um, and then Mahilo Federov is this young uh grew up in Ukraine tech um god in a lot of people's minds for the digitalization reforms that he's instituted throughout the Ukrainian government. And he took this approach, this kind of Silicon Valley approach to the Ministry of Defense in an effort to modernize things like procurement, the development of drones, what gets sent to the battlefield. Uh, and that was becoming, I would say, reasonably successful. But of course, we didn't get to see all of the fruits of those efforts uh due to this dispute.

[00:06:10]We've seen a poll, one poll found about 61% of Ukrainians opposed Fedrov's sacking. How much of that public pressure played into President Zalinsk's uh decision?

[00:06:24]>> I think it played it played a a big role um in into sacking uh Sudski after after Feder Fedorov, excuse me. um in part because this was the easier thing to do.

[00:06:39]It was more difficult uh if you're a wartime leader like Zilinski to bring back someone uh who you fired for disagreements with uh your military commanders. And by the way, Fedorov listed uh after he left all the successes that his ministry had had under him. and when reportedly he met with Zalinski uh was not quite so keen on exactly coming back in a in a diminished role. And so actually it became more politically feasible and just logistically easier for Zalinski to remove Sirki more popular among the people. Um and he's he's I think found quite a capable new commander in Mikail Draati.

[00:07:24]And what does this say about uh President Zalinsk's leadership?

[00:07:31]>> I think it it says that President Zalinski is sensitive to uh the demands of the people. It's another reminder that Ukraine is a democracy uh and that something like this would never happen in a place like Russia. I mean, I I'm sure your your followers and and your audience are aware of the fact that over the course of the four and a half years of this full-scale Russian invasion, Russians haven't always been satisfied with their military leadership either.

[00:08:00]Uh their commanders haven't been effective either, quite obviously. and those uh generals, those commanders have been met with things like uh prison or they've been kept in these positions due to uh vested interests. And so I think it's it's another reminder of just how responsive Ukraine's young competitive democracy is uh to the the feelings of of the public. And when there are protests in the street, particularly ones that have lasted more than a few days and seem to be growing actually, uh that President Zalinsky and Ukrainian leadership at large is responsive to those and is willing to make the necessary changes.

[00:08:40]>> Right. Uh can you tell us about the new army chief um Shiloh Draati?

[00:08:47]>> So Draati like Sirki is a veteran of the war in Donbas going back to 2014. He's a military man as well, educated in eastern Ukraine in Harkefe, their military school. Um, and he's thought of as kind of a a midlevel but highly capable commander uh who led some quite daring maneuvers between 2014 and the full-scale invasion in 2022 to get his troops out of danger when they were under threat from Russian forces. Um, and so I think what this signals is not only a generational shift and probably an an approach to how the war is fought, but also possibly uh someone like Draati is uh more willing to commit to maybe some of the reforms that uh Fedorov sought to implement, but less uh rigid in the way they're implemented. So hopefully something perhaps in between Silski the old commander and Fedorov the the former minister of defense.

[00:09:50]>> So So we're not expecting a kind of dramatic change in the war conduct of the war under him.

[00:09:58]>> I think it's it's a little too early to tell if there's going to be a dramatic change. We still don't have a fully uh a minister of defense fully in place.

[00:10:07]There's an acting minister now. So once I think Zalinsky and his cabinet sort out that change as well, we we'll have a a better sense. I mean, the the trajectory is clear and this is something that Fedorov gets credit for.

[00:10:21]Uh but I think something that the broader Ukrainian military and defense tech space should get credit for which is the technological leaps that have been made in the past uh three years especially of of the war where Ukraine has become essentially the leader worldwide in drone technology using robots to fight on the battlefield instead of human beings uh and doing so very effectively. I think you know the Russian side has not made significant gains certainly this year and actually been pushed back in a lot of areas and we've also seen the success that Ukraine's drones are having in Russia itself. So I would expect that emphasis on UAVs these unmanned systems to continue uh because that's where Ukraine's competitive advantage is right now. And speaking of Russia, in these circumstances you talk about where Ukraine is making the these gains, um how will Russia be reading what looks like possibly a crisis within Ukraine's leadership?

[00:11:26]Well, this is an important point and I think this is another remarkable point about the Ukrainian side is that both the protesters, Minister Fedorov, Zalinski, Sirki, all of them while they were having these disputes acknowledged that we don't want to have disunityity.

[00:11:43]This is not uh meant to be a cleavage in society. Everyone wants to find the right solutions that will set Ukraine up best for its defense against Russia and to end this war and to get peace. And so I actually think uh while Russia might have been looking at this as uh possibly a point to drive a wedge between these different camps in Ukraine that all sides while they have severe pretty deep disagreements in a lot of areas uh I think acknowledge the the desire and the need for unity and that's why President Zalinsky has moved relatively quickly to to shore this up. I mean, it's maybe less than a week or about a week since uh Fedorov was fired and we have most of a solution to this problem with Silski now gone. We we'll need a new minister of defense and then Ukraine really will be able to to move forward, I think.

[00:12:35]>> Yeah. Earlier you mentioned the the protest and Zilinski's uh resulting action uh being a reflection of Ukraine's democracy. Is do you think that's the way the West the Western allies will be will be looking at this?

[00:12:50]I think I think there was some frustration among Western allies when the decision to fire Minister Fedorov was made. I think uh some people looked back at last summer when President Zalinsky made some unpopular decisions to essentially take these anti-corruption institutions under uh the prosecutor general's office which falls under the president himself. uh and that was seen as kind of a no-go among a lot of western countries that actually this is this is not a good democratic step for Ukraine to make and there were similar protests and Zilinski reversed his decision. So I I think there's probably still some consternation and maybe frustration that uh these moves uh keep being made against reform efforts and reformers like Federov. But we've seen uh again I I can only repeat myself that uh the president's in Ukraine has proven to be responsive to public pressure when it comes and to private pressure from the west which I'm sure it was coming from European leaders a few of whom were in Kev just last week. We had Prime Minister Starmer and uh Miss Vanderline from the European Commission as well.

[00:14:04]I'm sure this issue was was raised there in in private and so Zilinsky I think has shown himself to be nimble and a democratic leader when he really needs to be. Andrew, just to sum up, what would you think what would you say is your big takeaway from from all of this?

[00:14:22]>> I think the takeaway is that the firing of Minister Fedorov was an unforced error, frankly. Uh but that Ukraine is moving in the right direction. President Zilinski is salvaging the situation as best he can and that the Ukrainian people are still super plugged in to what's happening with their government.

[00:14:41]They understand that this is a war literally of life and death for their country and they want the best leadership so that they give themselves the best chance of surviving, of being prosperous and being at peace. And they can only do that once uh they've pushed the Russians back, once they've fought the Russians to uh a ceasefire. And they want the best people and the best in in the most important jobs here. Um and I think President Zalinski realizes that as well and and realizes that he can only truly fight this war uh to Ukraine's full potential if he has public backing as well. And so I think that's why you see this move with with Commander SKI and probably what we'll be looking at in in the week to come uh when a minister of defense is finally appointed as well.

[00:15:29]>> Andrew Dier from the Atlantic Council.

[00:15:31]Thank you for speaking to us.

[00:15:34]>> Thanks very much.

[00:15:37]>> And what do you think? Will this change at the top of the Ukrainian army have an impact on the course of the war? Let us know in the comments. I am Tommy Olad.

[00:15:46]See you next time.