This complicates the Thunder salary cap situation

[00:00:00]So the Thunder and general manager Sam Prey have a clear order of business this summer and the first one of those steps is the future of Lou Dort and he met with the media Sam Prey did a couple of days ago for his endofear interview before we have the NBA draft before we have some of these big decisions made and he finally gave his thoughts into Lou Dort's future with the franchise and I think you guys are going to be really really interested to hear what he had to say. So, we're going to talk all about Luggan Stewart, former undrafted free agent out of Arizona State, longest tenure member of the roster and a guy that we've talked about on this channel for several months now as being potentially the odd man out and that has even been kind of continuously pushed since the Thunder season came to an end that with the contract stipulations with where you're at right now in the second apron with those max contracts kicking in for guys like Chad Homegrren and and JDub coming this next season, the Thunder are going to have some serious finagling. to do with the cap and a lot of that involves Lou Dort's future. So, what did Sam Prey have to say about Lou Dort? I think it may surprise you guys considering what has been echoed around the country here these last couple of days. So, let's not waste a whole lot of time and let's go ahead and get into this breakdown of Lou Dort here today.

[00:01:10]Welcome into Thunder Digest. I'm Ryan Breeden. Welcome into the channel. And before we get into that, uh again, want to give you guys a chance to get in on our subscriber giveaway. Thank you all so much. Not only for 8K subscribers, I need to update this. We hit 9,000 subscribers earlier this week. You guys have been killing it with the support on the channel. If we reach 10K subscribers, when we reach 10K subscribers, we're going to be giving away two free jerseys of your choice of any Thunder player, either current or past for the Thunder, or maybe even future if it's an NBA draft pick here this season. All you got to do to get in that giveaway is go subscribe, go comment down below what you want the Thunder to do with Lou Dort, and that automatically gives you an entry into our jersey giveaway. But continuing on from here, things like odds, probability, and likelihood have become everyday vocabulary for us sports fans, especially in this sports betting world.

[00:01:56]Plenty of people weighing in on the probabilities that a guy like Lou Dort will continue with the Thunder next year. But I want to talk about our sponsor for today's video being Otis Edge. Because listen, if someone is guaranteeing you wins or that they're going to hit 80% of their bets, please get up and run in the other direction.

[00:02:14]And that's exactly why we've been using Otis Edge analytics here at Thunder Digest because they can guarantee you honest, transparent, long-term success.

[00:02:23]Otis Edge is where passion meets data.

[00:02:25]And data in really is the most important part of this whole thing because most lose, they will say they're unlucky. But really the the ultimate thing is that they don't have a system. They don't have a discipline and they're paying one handicapper for one opinion. And if that pick loses, you lose the fee and the bet, both of them at the same time. And that's what makes Otus Edge different.

[00:02:47]The best part is that premium members unlock five different expert analysis, different daily expert picks, and Otis Edge University, where they teach you bankroll management, betting strategy, emotional discipline, and how to actually bet smarter long-term, all for one price. So, if you want a smarter approach this season, download the free Otus Edge app right now. Yes, it is completely free. Download that app and get today's free pick of the day every single day. A free pick every single day if you download their free app. Join the fast growing community over at Otis Edge and get ahead of the game because that is exactly what the Otus Edge is. And I think Otis Edge would probably tell you that the probabilities for Lou Dort are that it's very, very hard for the Thunder to make this thing work. But this update from Sam Prey is exactly why we're here. So, let's not waste any time and let's get into it. When Sam Prey speaks, we all listen because after all, he's the best general manager in sports.

[00:03:43]And here's what he said when he was asked about Lou Dort on Monday. I have to sit down with him, talk with him, get an understanding of things from his point of view again. But, I think all of us would love to bring everybody back.

[00:03:56]That last sentence right there is the one we're going to really hang our hat on. I think all of us would love to bring everybody back. And Sam Prey even in this press conference as well, he mentioned his ideal off season, which he said, "I'd like to take my chances with this team fully healthy and see where we could go." And honestly, I can't fault him. I think you can look at the injuries of JDub and of AJ Mitchell in that postseason series with the Spurs and say if those two guys played, that outcome could have been very different.

[00:04:25]Sam Prey, if he could, he would run it back with this team exactly as is. But the unfortunate situation is that he cannot because of the financials.

[00:04:33]Because if you took the Thunder's salary cap situation for 2627 just at face value with no moves, if you were to run it back, a you would not have enough roster spots for your pick 12, pick 17, and your second round pick this year.

[00:04:47]And on top of that, you would be $28 million above the second apron, plus the rookie guarantees for picks 12 and 17, which would be around $10 million in total. The Thunder would be nearly $40 million above the second apron. And thanks to CJ McCollum, you just cannot do that. Thanks a lot, CJ. But this task at hand right now is figuring out Lou's full-time long-term future. And from there, you can make all of your other moves. And there's a lot of moves to be made. And Sam Prey said he's going to be very very uh very very not hasty, kind of the opposite. He's going to kind of take his time with some of these decisions. He said that this process in itself, it could take a little while, longer than it maybe has in past summers. But with all that in mind, he can't just sit back and take up the entire summer because here's the calendar of when he has to accept some of those player options. The option of Lou Dort, the option of Kriidge Williams, and the Isaiah Hartenstein option as well. They have to be picked up or declined by June 29th, which is 19 days from today. So, the Thunder have a little bit less than three weeks to figure out their plan for Lugan Stewart.

[00:05:51]From there, all the other pieces will fall into place. But what are the options that Sam Prey has? Because he did say that he's going to weigh all of those options. I want to walk through some of those in the back half of this video because I've been sitting here at my desk kind of just crunching numbers, crunching scenarios for the past handful of hours. And I've made a couple of graphics for you guys. I want to walk through what this all could look like and how the Thunder salary cap situation would look if they were to make all of these moves. So now I'm going to play GM Ryan Breeden and show you guys basically the rundown simulations of the Thunder situation here this off seasonason.

[00:06:24]Before we do that, again, this is the situation as of right now. You would be $28 million over the second apron. On top of that, this is the estimated rookie scale values for this upcoming NBA draft. You can pay, this is the 120% interval of this. This is the absolute maximum you could pay one of these rookies at these draft slots. You could pay them as little as 80%, but they'd have to agree to that. Here is what it would look like. Pick 12 on the high end would be about $5.9 million. Pick 17 on the high end would be roughly 4.6.

[00:06:55]You're looking at around $10 million. On the highest end, it could be as low as $8 million, as high as 10. So either way, you add that onto the second apron totals right now. And the Thunder, if they were to call it right now, go into next season, you'd have to free up two roster spots, and you would be roughly $38 million into the second apron. So, the Thunder have to make some moves. And here's the first situation. If say Prey really is intent on keeping Lud Door around. So, it starts with these two guys right here, Isaiah Joe and Aaron Wiggins. Both of them were out of the playoff rotation. Both of them took some steps back in impact. Aaron Wiggins taking the more disappointing of those steps, going from an impact player in the rotation in the finals last year to basically unplayable come the end of the season. Isaiah Joe kind of phased out in that Spurs series because of the lack of trust defensively and because of a guy like Jared McCain swooping into this rotation and kind of stealing in those minutes. But if the Thunder were to move on from just those two guys, adding on the $10 million from picks 12 and 17, OKC would still be $18.6 6 million over the second apron. So, you can't just move on from Isaiah Joe and Aaron Wiggins and still be in the green. You would still be pretty far in the red.

[00:08:07]So, from there, the next move you could make would be one where you're able to reshuffle some of these contracts. And I look at a guy uh let me go ahead and switch it to this one right here. You look at guys like Isaiah Hartstein. You look at guys like Kenrich Williams. Both of them have those team options. But if Kendrick Williams were to accept a veteran minimum extension, basically saying we're going to decline your option right now. We're going to give you a long-term deal of a couple million every year, 2.3 million, give you a little bit more time with the team.

[00:08:35]You'd save about $5 million there. And if you were to give Isaiah Hartstein similar long-term guarantees of saying, "Listen, we're going to cut you from 28.5 million down to $20 million a year, but instead of it being for just this next year, we're going to give you a $20 million a year deal for the next four years." you give him the long-term security, he gets to stay in a place like OKC. And on top of all of that, you save $8.5 million. But if you move on from Joe and Wiggins, if you restructure Hartinstein, if you restructure Williams and you add in the rookies, the Thunder are still 5.2 million over the second apron. Even if you were to get those rookies to negotiate to their 80% contract deals from those rookies, the Thunder would still be roughly 2 to3 million over that second apron. you may have to try to shed a few million dollars or you have to try to do something similar with Lou Dort that you would try to do with Hartstein and Williams which is get him to renegotiate to a cheaper contract as well because on the books right now he would be up for about $18 million next season. If you could negotiate him to be for more of the 12 to$13 million a year type of situation for next season and maybe for a few years to come, you could keep Lou Dort around. I know that was a lot of words. You guys could slow it down uh or listen to it again. I had a lot to say.

[00:09:50]But if you were to do that with Lou Dort, the problem is you have this situation with Kase Wallace right here.

[00:09:57]He wants his extension and not only that, but he also wants a spot in the starting five. And then you have the clash of does Lou Dort get upset because he takes his starting spot or do you get Kase Wallace who understands he's not going to get the starting job because Lou Dort is extended and then maybe a guy like Kase Wallace wants to walk and go somewhere else and test free agency next year. Every single decision that Sam Prey is going to make from right now through the end of this summer will have a domino effect for years to come. You have your big three locked up. I guess you can include Chet in the big three.

[00:10:28]I'm going to continue to do it for now.

[00:10:30]Um, but again, you would still be $5.2 million over the second apron. You'd have to try to restructure Lou Dort, who did just have the new agency agreement with Clutch Sports and Rich Paul. They don't take contract cuts very kindly.

[00:10:45]That's not something they do over there at Clutch Sports. It's an LA group. They like their money over there in Los Angeles. And so, they want to get their clients as much money as they can. So they I I don't see Lou Dort is signing Rich Paul and Clutch Sports just so he can take a pay cut for next year. I really struggle to see that. But if everyone else is going to have to do it for Lou to stay, he may have to be willing to. And he did say this. He he did say in his end of the year press conference, "My goal is to be here.

[00:11:12]Whatever I need to do, I'll get it done." So okay, you may have to take a pay cut of $4 to5 million. And if that's the case, along with Hartinstein doing it, along with Williams doing it, along with moving on from Wiggins and Joe, then maybe you could make it work. But the other situation that would get you under that second apron for sure is if the Thunder were to move on from Lou Dort, move on from Aaron Wiggins. In this situation, you could keep Isaiah Joe, have your two rookies in, fill out your 15-man lineup, restructure Hartinstein, and restructure Williams, and firmly be underneath that second apron. So, in this situation, you could keep Isaiah Joe for the three-point shooting along with Jared McCain, add in pick 12, add in pick 17, and still keep everybody else around for the next year at least. This is as close as you could get to running it back other than getting three separate players to restructure their contracts and doing a whole bunch of shifting around and moving. Now, if there's anybody that could accomplish that goal, it is Sam Prey. But he's gonna have to do a lot of negotiating, a lot of convincing, and a lot of finagling because this timeline is coming up. Again, from now until June 29th, he's gonna have to figure out exactly what road map he wants to take.

[00:12:22]But all of these options are on the table for him and the Thunder. It just depends on which route he wants to take.

[00:12:27]And it does start with Lou Dort. So again, if the Thunder decide they want to keep Lou Dort around, which Sam Prey clearly hinted that he would like to do, I think all of us would love to bring everybody back. Sam Prey is going to have one hell of an off seasonason and really one hell of a back half of June.

[00:12:44]Uh absolutely being the case no matter what route he wants to take. The safest route and most likely route would be shedding these two guys for sure and then restructuring Hartinstein, restructuring Williams and then figuring out what to do with Lou Dort and what to do with the contract extension of Kase Wallace. Hope you guys enjoyed today's breakdown. Again, if you want to get in on our jersey giveaway, go click that subscribe button. can go give me a comment on what your thoughts are on this update and what you want to see Sam Prey do with Lou Dort. And appreciate Otis Edge for sponsoring today's video as well. We'll have more from them throughout the next handful of weeks here on our channel. But that's all the time we have for today. I'm going to let you guys go. Signing off for now. We'll see you guys tomorrow with more videos here on Thunder Digest.