Uganda's democracy in decline? What's driving the crackdown?

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[00:00:06]>> When Yori Musevanany assumed office in 1986, many Ugandans hoped he would bring the peace and stability they had long awaited.

[00:00:17]Nearly 40 years later, that optimism has faded. [music] Widespread arrest, abductions, and intimidation from shutting down major media houses to detaining government critics have left many Ugandans fearful and silent. As democratic space diminishes, anxiety is rising and this prompt a critical question. What is fueling the rapid decline of democracy and governance in Uganda?

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[00:01:10]>> Uganda is experiencing one of its most turbulent political periods in decades.

[00:01:16]The country's largest independent media house has been taken off air while opposition figures have been abducted or detained. At the center sons, General Mui Kairoaba, chief of defense forces and son of President Musevani, whose public directives and endorsement of arrests often broadcast on social media have raised questions about Uganda's political trajectory. Civil society groups, rights organizations, and international partners are sounding the alarm. Now, many Ugandans are questioning whether this marks a tightening of entrenched authoritarian rule or signals the start of a gradual transfer of power. To help unpack these developments, I'm joined by Godbataba.

[00:02:07]He's associate director of the Great Lakes Institute for Strategic Studies as well as DW correspondent Frankie Eager in Campala.

[00:02:16]>> God, I'm starting with you. If you look at um Uganda's civic space, would you say um democracy is shrinking?

[00:02:26]>> Yes, exactly. uh basic essentially would uh it's democracy in Uganda is not shrinking it has been reversing and the reversals have been actually over a long period of time only that whenever it has been talked about not much attention has been paid to the reversals the the the democratic reversals in Uganda can be said to probably have uh started well uh sometime around 200 5 when the first major constitution amendment was made to remove term limits from the constitution that this is presidential term limits.

[00:03:09]Uh under the 1995 constitution the framers of the constitution had built a number of safeguards that would stop a president from luring for long.

[00:03:23]uh these these included presidential term limits. They included uh age limits on a person who can be president and then a periodic elections every 5 years.

[00:03:37]Now the these safeguards will have been systematically removed. The elections have basically been hijacked to the extent that now you don't you can't even know who actually manages elections. So to the to that extent then you realize that as long as a ruler stays in power for long the history has all these cases all over that shows that these rulers invest in demobilizing institutions of citizenship.

[00:04:09]uh dissolving alternative centers of power to be able to rem uh to hold on to power and civil society is one of the alternative centers of power because civil society organizes citizens. The media is an alternative center of power.

[00:04:26]The uh civic organizations like churches and NOS's and and economic association professional bodies all these are alternative centers of power. Opposition political parties are alternative centers of power. Uh long-serving leaders normally make sure that these institutions are disempowered so that they don't mount a challenge to them.

[00:04:52]And that's what we have seen since 2005 that the current regime of president who has been now in power for 40 years has systematically uh removed all the all the semblances of of freedom of the right to freedom right to assemble right to speech uh to be able to weaken all these institutions.

[00:05:17]>> Thank you for that breakdown. Frank, we heard about, you know, the shutdown of the Nation Media Group and some of its subsidiaries. Last two weeks, we also heard about the arrest, you know, of um the veteran politician Miriam Matembbe.

[00:05:34]We've also heard a lot of other abductions and arrests as well. what is actually happening on the ground as far as democracy uh freedom of speech, freedom of you know expression um that goes contrary to the current government. How does it look like?

[00:05:51]>> Back in the day things were done undercover. Uh these irregularities, political irregularities and anomalies were done undercover. uh you would hardly tell that so and so is in charge of such an action that has been committed such a crime that has been committed. Uh that's why we say that the difference between president Musevanany and the previous heads of state was his matter and he's educated.

[00:06:20]Back then it was the case but as of now it is now bare knuckle. I mean they don't mind what they do in broad daylight. They don't mind who does what.

[00:06:30]I mean they let everyone know that this action has been uh or crime has been committed or this action has been activated because so and so is in charge and it's all that I mean arresting people >> arbitrarily and and also arresting political leaders uh uh abducting torture. We've seen all these things happen in broad daylight unlike before and a lot is happening and we're seeing it happen. So that is as far as we have reached politically like the aris we've seen recently of Miriam Matebe of uh of the nationality platform vice president who was released and then rearrested again and then so many journalists being arrested bloggers everything is done in broad day delight and we know who does it and why they do it. Recently during the set of the nation address the president came out boldly and told us yes he's in charge of whatever is happening.

[00:07:37]when you talk about the people who are doing it and how it seems like they are brazing about it, they are owning up to it and one you know example that we all see is a president's son general Muzi Kairoaba um whether it is you know in arrest or um just talking about how much power he has what really would you say is the power that a president's son has um Frank >> well uh the power that he has is the power in the adage that the apple didn't fall far from the tree.

[00:08:14]Uh because constitutionally he has uh his powers are limited to the position of the chief of the defense forces CDF as a commander. He manages and oversees the operations of the army. He does not have independent constitutional authority uh to govern the country, make laws or replace civilian civilian institutions.

[00:08:38]Uh for now at least we have we see which is contrary to the law. He has some influence as they make it seem in the executive.

[00:08:49]He has some little powers in the legislature and the judiciary.

[00:08:55]So those are the powers we have. I mean he's walking in the shadows of the president as as as a son and it's all confusing to us as civilians. It's not clear because he also has an organization called PLU uh the Patriotic League of Uganda and it is a civic organization. It's like a political party in the making and it wields so much power to the extent that it has it has powers in parliament. It has MPs under its name. We've seen him you know engage in so many activities, civil activities, political and all that. So we don't know how much power he has. Uh but all we know being the son of the president constitutionally he's not supposed to have any political powers but somewhere somehow because the apple didn't fall away from the far from the tree perhaps it is in that sense that he's using his powers.

[00:10:05]>> Godbba do you see a grooming happening here? Uh I I've written about this before in 2021 essentially a colleague of mine and I uh wrote a paper uh entit entitled Uganda's political transition scenarios to 2026 and beyond and uh and and we predicted most of the things that are happening now but also the the one consequential conclusion we made is that mental programming is that he is a life president.

[00:10:39]So whoever discusses issues of succession or transition or whatever name so-called I I think that they have to understand that as long as he's going to be president and therefore all these other people including Muos they are exercising rented power in other words can today change Muos's fortunes and maybe an ambassador to Russia. I am not sure that Moses would say no. But in the current power architecture, Musev clearly needs Moses as the stick to be able to enforce his regime survival operations because in our in our in our scenarios paper, we basically argued that the most likely scenario because M7 is is potentially and inherently a life president. He's going to he's going to have to unleash a lot of violence on the population to subdue it and subjugate it to allow the life presidency project to continue. And and I think in his uh in his character as and his history, he probably doesn't have the will to be able to unleash the levels of violence that are necessary to achieve that objective. So he has found his son and made him the instrument to be able to do that. My my view that the president what he has done is that one he wants to be a life president. As long as he's alive he's going to be president and all he's doing is to make sure that he weakens the institutions of state.

[00:12:25]uh makes the makes himself and the and his family the the most important and consequential institution of state and so that in the event that he's gone then naturally follows that Moses would actually be the president because we saw a similar situation in in Chad where when Idris Deb died the entire even the international community sat and and felt like the only person who could hold the country together was Idris Deb's son. So I think that that's the kind of scenario that we should envisage in Uganda if they if Ugandans do not challenge and resist and stop this trend that is happening now. Now what you have said you know brings a very key question in my mind about the people themselves citizens we have long heard that power resides in the people you know in a democracy is for the people by the people and for the people. What power really does the Ugandan citizen have to decide who should rule over them? Do they have any power at all?

[00:13:38]>> Right now beyond the constitutional declaration, Ugandans do not have power. They have become powerless and the process of disempowerment has been very choreographed, very systematic and consistent.

[00:13:53]Um so right now uh you can say that the power belongs to as I said the power belongs to really really for a president to come out and own the level of criminality that is going on in the country. In other words he basically says everything that is being done I know it and it is being done on my behalf. I I think that's a normal and and so in terms of the power relations all that the president has been trying to do is to change the power relations shift the power from the people to himself and himself meaning the military the the the 2026 elections that that's the election that happened in January was essentially I have I've I've always characterized it as a criminal military operation. This was the first time even when the other elections were so bad, including the 2021 elections where more than 100 of our people had to be killed for us to elect the president. I think that um the 2026 elections crossed the threshold where the military took over the entire election exercise. actually it took over the election of the NRM primaries and then the general elections or the parliamentary elections and and so that's basically how you sap power from the people and the and you know before that parliament had been bamboozled into enacting the UPDF amendment act that essentially was now the formal transfer of power from the citizens to the military. So there's a huge contestation right now but of course seven with the army and all the instruments of the co is winning the the contest.

[00:15:51]>> Right. Frank, from where you sit as a journalist, what have you seen to be the role of a lot of the other constitutional institutions like parliament, like the court, like you know the Ugandan Communications Commission for instance in the case of the closure of you know these media houses what has largely been the role of these institutions and are they playing the role well?

[00:16:17]>> Definitely not. uh they're not playing not only Uganda Communications Commission uh so many uh uh government institutions agencies I mean are under siege uh just like it is with uh the electoral commission just as just as it is uh with judiciary the courts of law parliament none of those institutions are playing their role recently we had uh uh the chair the chairperson of the Ugan Human Rights Commission lamenting uh lamenting that power is being misused power from from the appointing authority who is the president. She resigned recently. Why? Because uh the body is not playing its constitutional mandate just like other bodies are not doing so.

[00:17:13]The police uh are not fair. uh they are discriminatory in the operations uh the army uh the courts of law I mean recently the president also said I wouldn't call it now the set of the nation address like god wants me to the recent address by the president he said that he he challenged bail uh to to offenders to the political prisoners especially those who have h criminal cases that they should not granted bail.

[00:17:48]You see, so he uses up the powers of the judiciary. So none of those institutions is operational without the consent authorization of uh uh the president. So that tells that everything is on remote control.

[00:18:06]>> Whatever is decided from the powers that be is what happens no matter what.

[00:18:10]>> Now let me ask you your last question before I go back to Godbar. When Musevani was coming into office, you know, in 1986, he made certain promises, promises of peace, stability and all of that. Now, if citizens look back, you know, onto those promises and what is being fulfilled or what is happening now, are they hopeful that there can be change in the system? [clears throat] >> Okay. uh before looking at the change of the systems uh people have here uh there's the way they compare them seven by saying that if them seven of of then met them seven of today they would clash and crash when he came to power in 1986 he promised Ugandans heavens on earth uh that it won't be just a mere change of uh guards uh we had hopes and things I mean everything was moving According to the script, we all happy, excited. At least our parents told us that things according were working according to their hopes.

[00:19:16]Uh but of late, of course, along the way uh we realized that uh people were hoodwinkedked much as we appreciate uh some contributions like peace, security and many others. Maybe improvement of the economy in one or the other. We do appreciate that. But along the way uh things backtracked and went off trail.

[00:19:42]But of course Ugandans now are hoping for the best. All they are looking uh to achieve uh in the near future if all goes well they want to see more employment for for for for Ugandans especially the young people. We have graduates. Many of them uh complete their studies in universities, tal institutions and then they go to the streets without jobs.

[00:20:08]When you go to when you go to to to schools, primary schools, secondary schools, it is like people are yanning for a conducive uh environment, decent infrastructure, proper facilities, a competence, you know, uh education, competence, education is all that is lacking and it's what they are yearning for. When it comes to say corruption, we lose so much in corruption. so so so much that you can imagine. People want to say corruption free Uganda. Um corruption begins from uh the top. We've seen billions not millions but billions of money being lost uh by big shots in the governments ministers you know directors in government uh uh the former speaker of parliament uh uh they recently arrested and prosecuted uh uh parliament staff that stole billions of money. We want to see a corruption-free Uganda. We want to see a better health service. We want to see proper health care for all of us. You got hospitals there, no medicines. Roads are dilapidated.

[00:21:18]Everything seems to be moving at it pace or no sign of improvement at all. So, it is what the Ugandans want to see. 40 years has been a long time. I mean, we deserve better than this. So we're hoping that perhaps things now that uh uh we're seeing changes maybe the president made changes in the his cabinet. We're seeing younger ministers coming in promise promising promising us changes that we are seeing them uh you know and and corruptions you know cor scandals and prosecuting those that are involved in corruption.

[00:21:57]Perhaps we could see a ray of hope at the end of the tunnel.

[00:22:03]>> Definitely. And 40 years indeed has been a long time. God, by your final words, um, what is the worstc case scenario of how Uganda's democracy could deteriorate and what do you think citizens or anybody who cares should do to avert that worst case scenario?

[00:22:24]>> No, the the the worst case scenario is already with us.

[00:22:28]Because the environment in which we are lead we are living uh the violence that is played on our TVs and our social media the trauma that the actions of the regime is is subjecting our people including young people including children on is simply very disturbing. I think it is going to have a long-term effect on our psych on our psych as a population. So the sooner that it stops the better. My I have I have I have been a proponent since 2017 I've been a proponent of a national dialogue process. My argument has been that our institutions of states are so broken today that they cannot provide a pathway to the future. uh the and and I can take the example just of elections that we have a completely broken electoral system and a a completely broken politics that elections cannot be the pathway to the future because all that has been hijacked by the by the military and and the juna that is in charge of the country. So, uh, what what must be done then is that we have to find or I'm hoping that there are going to be some statesmen and women and our friends within the international community that have the courage to be able to push that the country comes together whether whether with the leadership of President MV or not that we sit on the table and talk about the future together because uh the the the future there must be a new consensus on how the country is governed. We cannot have a family, a group of people called NRM, now a group, a new group called POU. We can't have one group just overloading everything on on the rest of the population because the resistance can only grow. So I I think that a national dialogue process, however it happens and whenever it happens, is the only pathway that a better future can be constructed for Uganda and so that every Ugandan uh is able to enjoy freedom, is able to enjoy equal opportunity and the the population can share uh shared prosperity.

[00:24:59]>> Very well. Thank you so much, gentlemen.

[00:25:01]I'm grateful for your time. You just heard Godba Tumaba. He's an associate director at the Great Lake Institute for Strategic Studies. Earlier you heard DW correspondent Frank Jagger in Campala.

[00:25:15]For analysts like Godbar, Uganda's democracy has steadily eroded resulting in the current crisis. Meanwhile, more citizens abroad are speaking out and protesting the system while others use social media to challenge repression.

[00:25:31]Whether this period becomes a turning point or accelerates the slide into authoritarianism will depend on the choices of Uganda's leaders, its citizens, and the international community in the coming months. But for now, you can join the conversation by sharing your thoughts with us on Facebook and Tik Tok at DW Africa. Listen to us on Spotify or wherever you get your podcast. And don't forget to subscribe to our DW Africa YouTube channel so you never miss an episode. This show was co-produced and edited by Isaac Mugabi and I am a Jaama Domina. Bye for now.

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