Peace for Lebanon? | This is America

[00:00:08]This is America and that is the White House where Donald Trump has been hosting a Lebanese president for the first time in nearly 20 years. The stakes are high. Trump wants to see a concrete schedule for disarming Hezbollah that would lead to Israel's withdrawal from southern Lebanon and allow the US president to claim his Middle East strategy a success. I'll have more on that later, but first over to Alex Marquart in our Washington DC studio.

[00:00:35]More than 4,000 Lebanese citizens have been killed by Israel since March. More than a million people displaced and nearly half of southern Lebanon's towns have either been damaged or flattened.

[00:00:46]Lebanon, Israel, and the US have agreed to a framework to end the fighting and Israel's occupation of southern Lebanon, but it is centered around the disarmament of the militant group Hezbollah. Now, this has been rejected outright by Hezbollah, which remains well beyond the control of Lebanon's government. Now, Lebanon's president has arrived here in the here in Washington and visited the White House, his first visit in 17 years.

[00:01:12]The US ambassador to Leon Sharesa told me that the president would not leave Washington empty-handed. What concrete outcomes will you will you bringing back to? You'll find out.

[00:01:25]>> So, President O is here to discuss a fragile framework, his battered country, and the questions with no easy answers.

[00:01:33]Can the US finally get to a deal between Lebanon and Israel, which would see Israel withdraw and with peace and residents returning to southern Lebanon?

[00:01:42]And then how much of the renewed war in Iran affects those outcomes? Bernard Smith has more.

[00:01:50]>> It's nearly 20 years since a Lebanese president was last welcomed at the White House. It's a meeting with high stakes for Donald Trump and Joseph Aun.

[00:01:59]>> Mr. President, it's an honor having you.

[00:02:01]Thank Trump wants to see Aoon's plans to disarm Iran allied armed group Hezbollah. Aoon wants the US president to pressure Israel to start withdrawing troops from southern Lebanon.

[00:02:13]>> We are going to uh solve a lot of problems. We've already solved some of them for Lebanon. As you know, there's a Hezbollah problem.

[00:02:22]>> It's almost a month since the US brokered a deal between Israel and Lebanon outlining those goals. in that we're happy to announce the a framework agreement between the sovereign government of of Lebanon and and of course the government of Israel. And this is what there is to show for it.

[00:02:39]Lebanese soldiers deploying in three small towns identified as pilot zones to test the process. Two were occupied by Israeli troops. A third was destroyed by Israeli shelling.

[00:02:53]>> We are not a pilot zone. We are a free town. The Israelis haven't entered FR.

[00:02:58]On what basis did this shameful government agree with the Israelis on a pilot zone?

[00:03:04]>> Trump wants to review a concrete Lebanese plan to decommission Hezbollah's massive arsenal, which he can then use as leverage to press Israel. The US president could then claim his Middle East strategy is working by further pressuring Iran.

[00:03:22]But Hezbollah has rejected the framework. It says any arrangements in Lebanon must be linked to wider negotiations between Washington and Thran. And Israel says it won't fully withdraw from southern Lebanon until Hezbollah is completely disarmed.

[00:03:38]Aoon's presence in Washington at least projects momentum.

[00:03:42]But Israel's prime minister isn't here, and Benjamin Netanyahu, facing a tough general election in October, might not want to agree to anything that might jeopardize his already narrow path to victory. surprising >> even for his old friend Donald Trump.

[00:03:57]>> Bernard Smith, Al Jazzer, Washington.

[00:04:00]>> I want to bring in our team here in Washington. We have chief US correspondent Alan Fischer who is at the White House and Manuel Rapo who's over at the State Department. Alan, let's start with you at the White House.

[00:04:10]Donald Trump is now trying to reach this peace deal in Lebanon while also ramping things up in Iran. How is he juggling these two simultaneous efforts? Well, of course, the two aren't mutually exclusive and they are linked because of the Iranians. Donald Trump would like to see a deal in Lebanon because he believes that that will help in the discussions with the Iranians. You'll remember that the Iranians made it very clear that they would not enter into discussions to end the war to open up the straight of form unless they talked about what was happening in Beirut. For a long time, they were not prepared to get to the negotiating table because of Israel's continued operations in southern Lebanon. And Israel actually frustrated Donald Trump because many times as he felt he was getting close to a deal with the Iranians or at least to get them to the table, they took action in southern Lebanon which he believed derailed their attempts for peace. And in fact, in several occasions, he said that Benjamin Netanyahu here had to see the big picture. Donald Trump is certainly keen to get some sort of negotiated settlement with the Iranians.

[00:05:18]He's made it clear that they want to talk, but he has said that before. And he's made it clear that he'll continue bombing. He's been given options about what can happen next, including a much bigger military operation, more targets, more intense. But he knows that the Iranians are looking across to Lebanon and they want to make sure that there is some sort of settlement there. A different kind of southern Lebanon with the Israelis moving out if they're to do any sort of long-term deal with Donald Trump and the White House.

[00:05:50]>> Yeah, more angry threats from the American president today. Uh Alan Fischer at the White House. Thanks very much. Let's head over to Manny Rapo who's at the State Department. So Manny Rubio, the Secretary of State, he's been taking the lead on this Lebanese effort.

[00:06:01]How realistic is he? How realistic is his team about what could happen next?

[00:06:09]>> Well, the key word there is realistic.

[00:06:11]From the perspective of US officials, we do get the sense that just getting these delegations from Israel and Lebanon to continue to meet from repeated rounds of negotiations represents a significant diplomatic victory in itself. This trilateral framework uh that has resulted from these negotiations in many ways is seen as the culmination of months of these continued diplomatic talks. And there is enough confidence at least uh in the progress that's been made so far to move beyond political talks and to the actual implementation phase of that framework. We see that with the uh pilot zones that were that first pilot zone that was rolled out in southern Lebanon. So it is worth noting yes there are still questions there are still doubts over uh how feasible implementation of this framework is going to continue to be without the participation of Hezbollah. But what we're hearing as well uh at least in terms of signaling from US officials is that diplomacy doesn't happen overnight.

[00:07:06]We've heard it from Secretary of State Marco Rubio himself saying that it has been a tremendous victory to have these uh delegates continue to meet to continue to be part of this broader effort to create a more institutionalized fa space for good faith negotiations to continue to take place. But again, the words from Marco Rubio is that diplomacy doesn't happen overnight. This is part of a broader effort and uh the idea here long term is that space for negotiations is part of just the beginning of a longer road toward a more sustainable peace between these two countries >> and a very long road. It could be Manny Rapo at the State Department. Thanks very much. Uh we are joined now by former US ambassador and White House policy Middle East policy adviser Mark Ginsburg and Jennifer Gvido who was a former acting uh deputy assistant secretary for Near Eastern affairs at the State Department. Uh, Ambassador Jennifer, thank you both for being with me. Lots going on obviously on the Lebanon front, all against the backdrop of this war with Iran that is ramping up. Um, with this agreement between Israel and Lebanon, this framework uh, a lot of it hinging, of course, on the disarmament of uh, Hezbollah, which would then hopefully lead to the withdrawal of Israel from southern Lebanon. There are some major gaps in this agreement like some of the verification measures. Um, Ambassador, I want to ask you first today, even as uh this plan was being implemented in uh the so-called pilot zone, we saw some fire from the IDF against uh Lebanese troops. Generally speaking, how optimistic are you that this framework that is in place that was signed last month can actually lead to some kind of resolution here?

[00:08:42]>> Well, those of us who are optimists in the Middle East don't have a lot of currency to show for it. The Lebanese people deserve to have something that would restore sovereignty to their country. At the same time, those of us who follow the internal situation in Israel realize that what the IDF is doing is trying to create what essentially is a non-SI carter across the Lebanese Israeli border. How far into the Lebanese territory remains to be seen. At what point will the IDF actually pull out? Hard to say. The reason being is that you have Israeli elections coming up in October and there is no way that uh Benjamin Atinau is going to be able to go into those elections with the Israeli public convinced that Hezbollah one not only has not been disarmed but number two is continuing to fire into northern Israel and so all things are local in Israel when it comes to politics and Lebanon.

[00:09:38]>> I do want to get to those political pressures on uh on the Israeli leader.

[00:09:43]Let's talk Jennifer for a moment about the disarmament of of Hezbollah. We have on who is here in Washington today um and the US is hoping that the Lebanese armed forces laugh as they're called um are going to lead the effort to to disarm Hezbollah. What is that actually going to take? Is that even realistic?

[00:10:02]>> Sure. I mean first of all it is extraordinarily difficult uh under the best of circumstances and these are not the best of circumstances in that Hisbollah has not been part of this conversation and really the Shia community in Lebanon has not been part of this conversation >> and as was noted they have rejected this framework that was >> absolutely um so it really requires you know a bit of chicken and egg here um in order for Lebanon to withdraw they need to see the laugh uh with the capability to take over and that being said President Aoon is going to be very challenged to get this domestic support needed uh to take over without Israel.

[00:10:38]Um it really requires for this to succeed sustained US effort uh focused not just I guess from the US but from the international community. Um and President Aun mentioned that in his Oval Office meeting today. Uh you need both to support the Lebanese armed forces through technology uh weapons etc. But you also need sustained focus by the Trump administration. And I think that um patience and continuity has not necessarily been the hallmark of of this administration.

[00:11:07]>> That American support, those American resources, that's a large part of the reason that the president of Lebanon came here today. Here's a little bit more of what he had to say in the Oval Office earlier.

[00:11:16]>> I told him I need two things from you.

[00:11:19]Political support and supporting of which is the most trusted institution in the country and it has the most powerful weapon which is the trust of the public.

[00:11:29]Uh like any other any armed forces in the world, the Lebanese armed forces is the backbone of security and stability.

[00:11:37]We need to support the laugh. The laugh maintain the country safe and stable.

[00:11:42]Without the laugh, everything will collapse. We don't want that. I think President Trump doesn't want that.

[00:11:47]>> Again, the laugh is Lebanese armed forces, the the military that the government controls versus Hezbollah, which is certainly not under their control. Jennifer, back to you. Does own have any leverage here? I mean, I guess it's leverage visa v whom? Um, certainly President Trump uh seems committed to this at the moment. Um, and I think his administration deserves credit for that.

[00:12:08]Um, so as when it comes to getting US buy in uh to provide that support, I do think that he has leverage when you're talking about domestic politics and him at home, it's a much more challenging situation. And essentially what you're asking for with this pilot program is as Israel pulls back, the Lebanese armed forces are supposed to go into areas that are Hezbollah dominated. It is very hard to see this working without Lebanon on Lebanon violence. And I think that that is probably a red line for many within Lebanon. And so I I do think that that leaves us with a very precarious uh position at best for the success.

[00:12:43]>> That sequencing, what happens in what order is is something that I really want to get into. Ambassador Ginsburgg, it does appear to be somewhat biased towards Israel, putting the onus first on Lebanon uh to have successful and verifiable disarmament of Hezbollah throughout Lebanon and with no timetable. Is that fair?

[00:13:02]>> I want to echo what Jennifer had to say because I couldn't agree more with her.

[00:13:06]Whether the issue is fairness, look, the Lebanese government uh has an agreement that is very quite unpopular among the Lebanese people, right? Number one.

[00:13:16]Number two, Hezbollah and Iran refuse to honor this agreement. So, as far as they're concerned, any effort to try to force them to disarm is unacceptable.

[00:13:26]Number three, the United States is stretched very thin here. The French and other countries need to step up and to provide what essentially is the type of support economically for the Lebanese government to give President Ayun something to return to the Lebanese people. Number two, an Israeli buyin that essentially says, "Look, no matter where the Lebanese where no matter where the Hezbollah is right now, you've got to trust us and the Lebanese army first to try to disarm him, and you need to stay out of this for the time being."

[00:14:00]Those are tough words that the American government has to deliver to the Israelis. And finally, most importantly, military support for the laugh is essential. I would not want to be in a situation where I was a Lebanese soldier without knowing full well that I had the support and the equipment that I need in order to withstand what essentially would be a potential Hezbollah attack on me.

[00:14:22]>> Let's take a a deeper look at what is exactly in this trilateral framework that was signed last month by Israel, Lebanon, and the United States. Here's Matthew Torres.

[00:14:32]>> The trilateral framework agreement was signed in late June. And for this deal to work, all parties are relying on its 14 key provisions. Here are some of the main principles. Israel and Lebanon declare their intent to end the conflict, recognizing each nation's right to exist in peace. The Lebanese government commits to disarming Hezbollah and other armed groups while dismantling military infrastructure, including tunnels and command centers.

[00:14:57]The Israeli military will withdraw from southern Lebanon in phases based on how the Lebanese armed forces take over security and control. And part of that strategy requires pilot zones. They are designated areas where Israeli forces gradually scale back from occupied areas as the Lebanese army deploys. A military coordination group for Lebanon will also be established to closely monitor how the agreement is implemented. Less than a month after a series of US mediated talks, the agreement is already taking effect. Most notably, the pilot zones are now active in three villages.

[00:15:31]Lebanese army units are starting to move in. And the US supported military coordination group has officially launched to track progress, provide support and communication, and verify Hezbollah's disarmament. We have yet to see complete Lebanese sovereignty, whether Israel will fully withdraw and the total dismantling of Hezbollah. The Iranbacked group has already rejected the agreement, calling it humiliating and shameful. Keep in mind, this is a framework agreement designed to end active hostilities, not a formal peace deal. Under the plan, both governments of Lebanon and Israel agreed nothing in the framework prevents them from exercising their right to defend themselves.

[00:16:13]>> So, we did see today some of that incremental withdrawal by the uh Israeli forces in this pilot zone. We had a correspondent out there in Hodder. She reported that Israeli forces kept demolishing homes in in a nearby area.

[00:16:25]Of course, so much of the south has been flattened as as you mentioned, Ambassador Ginsburg. Jennifer, what do you think? How do you think Israel's going the Israeli troops are are going to act in the coming days and weeks?

[00:16:35]>> Well, I mean, we've already seen today that there was an IDF um I wouldn't say attack, but IDF firing on Lebanese armed forces who were operating outside of these three very distinct, very small pilot zone areas. And I think that that gives us a clear window into what we can expect and that is that the Israeli government continues to ex exert that it has room for maneuver anytime that it uh feels that there is a threat and it has had a very liberal definition of what that looks like. So even as perhaps there's adherence to, you know, some of the the letter of the law, I think the spirit um that would ultimately see a full withdrawal, I I really have trouble imagining that, particularly as Ambassador Ginsburg notes, you know, we're going into an election season in Israel. Um with northern Israel still largely uninhabitable, there is very little domestic support for a full withdrawal from Lebanon. That's not mentioned in the agreement. And yet ultimately uh you continue to provide Hezbollah with pretext for its existence as you know a so-called resistance movement as long as Israel is still operating with relative impunity. Um and so this is you know I I think a pretty difficult situation and I think we're going to continue to see Israel really pushing the boundaries.

[00:17:49]>> So you really have not heard that much support for a withdrawal from southern Lebanon by the most senior Israeli officials. I want to put up uh something that the defense minister Israel Cass said recently. He said, quote, "We did not ask anyone's permission to enter Lebanon, and we did we do not need permission to stay in Lebanon." Master Ginsburg, that does not sound like a country that is preparing to withdraw.

[00:18:11]>> No. And it seems to be the red line that Benjamin Netany and his government have drawn between adhering to what essentially is White House dictates on Iran and the freedom of maneuver that the Israeli government believes is necessary inside Lebanon. Look, you have a situation right now where Iran has not stopped providing support to Hezbollah.

[00:18:37]Number one. Number two, uh when Donald Trump suggested that Syrian forces step in and replace Israeli forces, I could imagine the amount of uh anger that probably went out throughout Lebanon about that prospect. You know, when you get right down to the brass tax, the Lebanese armed forces and the Lebanese government need massive military power and uh support to achieve the objectives of this. When the White House steps up and stops putting pressure on the Lebanese government and stops giving starts giving the Lebanese government the support that it needs in order to expand this trilateral agreement, then I'll tell you that this White House has really bought in.

[00:19:17]>> Jasure.

[00:19:18]>> Yeah. And I I I think that we're approaching this as if it were a military deal. And I think ultimately for the success of this, which I do not think is in the short term, essentially what the United States and what most especially the Awound government have to do is present an alternate vision uh for southern Lebanon. We've heard talk about reconstruction. Um but it's an al essentially a war zone right now.

[00:19:41]In order for Hezbollah to be dislodged, there there has to be economic activity.

[00:19:45]There has to be growth. There has to be freedom of movement. And so this is a much broader undertaking than simply a military operation. Hisba uh I think for the Lebanese people and certainly for southern Lebanon represents you know much much more in the way of governance.

[00:20:00]And so this is a long-term project that requires the international community Gulf uh which of course is occupied uh with the Iran conflict. It really requires a much broader uh approach to this and what we're seeing so far as positive as those initial steps are >> and one of the more extraordinary things that has been raised by the American president as you just noted ambassadors is this notion that the Syrians could come in that Ahmed Shah the new president of Syria could uh send in forces to help disarm Hezbollah. That is something that President Trump raised again earlier today. Take a listen.

[00:20:33]>> You still support Syria entering Lebanon to disarm Hezbollah?

[00:20:37]>> You mean coming in and doing something with Hezbollah? Yes.

[00:20:40]>> Well, it's a concept. You know, we get along very well with the president of Syria. He's done a very good job. I wouldn't be surprised if this gentleman's going to do a job just like that. He's done a very good job. He's pulled Syria together. Uh he would like to come in and do uh something with Hezbollah. You know, they've been fighting he's been fighting Hezbollah for a long time. I think it'd be very effective. So, it's something I think.

[00:21:03]>> Ambassador, would President Shada like to come in and do something with Hezbollah?

[00:21:08]>> Uh no. number one. Number two, and when the Israeli government starts dealing much more effectively with Syria and the Syrian government and negotiates what essentially is a framework agreement uh that would bring about what essentially is a total reconciliation and Israeli withdrawal from parts of the Syrian uh Syrian countryside, the occupied bel beyond the Golan Heights, then I would be far more willing to support in the idea of an Israeli joint Israeli Syrian and Lebanese government military effort to implement this agreement.

[00:21:43]>> When you look at the the fight that Hezbollah has put up against the Lebanese the Israeli forces, um they've had some they've they've been able to carry out some attacks. They have managed to to kill some Israeli soldiers, but they certainly haven't managed to prevent any kind of uh full-scale occupation of of southern Lebanon. Um their leader was killed several le years years ago, Hassan Astrala. Jennifer, when you you see how they've been acting for the past few months, what does it tell you about the strength of this group?

[00:22:11]>> That they have been diminished um but that they still represent a significant portion of of Lebanon's political space.

[00:22:19]Um although there is deep frustration within the Lebanese society about its role, um it nonetheless continues to represent a lot of the Shia interests um and geographically a significant swath of Lebanese land. So I I think that excluding them from the conversation is a dangerous undertaking because um despite the military success against them. Uh they do remain a force in the political space >> and as you've noted they're still getting support from from the Iranians.

[00:22:48]I think one of the most interesting things about the the memorandum of understanding that was struck between Iran and the US which is now dead it appears is that the first clause said clearly uh that uh the war in Lebanon must end and that Lebanese sovereignty sovereignty must be respected. Uh ambassador now that the war in Iran is is fully back on sorry yes the war in Iran um is this Lebanese issue completely separate? No, I as long as Iran and the United States are at war and Iran continues to support Hezbollah and does in effect is able to compel Hezbollah to remain armed because they remain a very important proxy. I don't see anything changing. This is all interconnected. you. As much as we want to separate Lebanon from the war with Iran and as long as Hezbollah is able to maintain its military power inside Lebanon and continue to receive support from Iran, this will not satisfactoryly be implemented.

[00:23:46]>> Do you believe that today was a moment that could lead to um some progress here or or do you think we'll look back on this as as a photo op, the the meeting between these two presidents? I think it's rather extraordinary uh that the Lebanese president is backing the disarmament of Hezbollah and we should take that as a as a victory. The meeting in the Oval Office very positive good start. Um so no I think that today was important uh but it is you know an initial step uh a lot more steps a lot broader steps have to take place in order for this to be a success. Um, and I think only time will tell if the Trump administration has the staying power to continue to be focused on this in the way that is needed to divert resources um, and political power uh, to continue to move this process forward.

[00:24:30]>> Ambassador, we have just about a minute left, but when you look at the the time and the resources that Secretary Rubio has devoted to this issue, um, does it tell you that they are willing to spend quite a bit of political capital trying to figure this out? Yeah, political capital is great and everybody loves to see these agreements negotiated, including me and I'm including Jennifer.

[00:24:50]The situation on the ground is what has to change and it's going to take more than agreements. It's going to take troops, military support, and to give the Lebanese people and the Israeli public confidence that there's more than merely the Lebanese armed forces uh unprepared, unable, not have adequate arms to disarm Hezbollah.

[00:25:13]>> It is remarkable to look at that landscape in southern Lebanon and um see what has happened to so many people there, more than a million displaced again. Um and you two have have laid out so clearly the obstacles um that that lie ahead. Obviously some progress made today. Um important positive news, but it just uh it's absolutely stunning how much more needs to be done. So thank you so much for joining me and for breaking this down. Uh former US ambassador uh Mark Ginsburg and Jennifer Gvido uh a former deputy assistant secretary at the State Department. Thank you both so much.

[00:25:46]>> Thank you.

[00:25:47]>> And that's all from myself and the team here in Washington. Handing it back now to Bernard Smith and Al Jazer's global headquarters in Doha.

[00:25:55]>> Thanks, Alex. That's it for this edition of This Is America, but we're on air every Monday to Friday at 18:30 GMT.

[00:26:03]That's 2:30 p.m. Eastern time if you're here in the US. Until then, bye for now.