This video explores how geopolitical power dynamics manifest through strategic resource control (China's dominance in rare earth minerals essential for weapons and technology), information warfare (China's propaganda efforts to influence Western audiences and key opinion leaders), and the critical importance of democratic participation in resisting authoritarian manipulation. The content demonstrates that effective democratic societies require citizens to maintain agency, access accurate information, and actively participate in elections to prevent manipulation through fear and misinformation.
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FBI Dir. Kash Patel Plans Trip to Russia w/ Updates on China, Iran, Gaza, & Lebanon
Added:[music] [music] [music] Good morning, friends. Thank you all for being here. We have a very exciting, albeit maybe a little spooky show today.
maybe a little spooky, but we can handle hard things together. And we're really lucky to have the crew that we do have coming today. So, of course, we have Eric. Um, but I got a call from Senator Mark Warner's office last night saying that he would be able to join us today, which I think is really important, especially given the travel warning that came out for Americans abroad yesterday.
Um, he sits on the Senate Intelligence Committee. He's actually the vice chairman and he is probably one of the most articulate senators when it comes to foreign policy and when it comes to safety. So, he's going to come and chat with us for about 15 minutes about what's going on there and also about what the Senate is doing to ensure that our elections remain unmedled with because there are active threats to meddle with our elections. They are not going to happen, but we have to stay ahead of it and we have to take it seriously. And then the other person that's coming today that you might not know is Greg. He is a journalist and an expert on the Middle East. So, he's going to tell us what's going on with Iran. But first, it's a boy from Albania. What's going on?
>> How's it going?
>> Oh, fella. How's it going for you?
Everybody was so scared for you yesterday when that warning came out.
>> Yeah, I mean, you know, I I spend a lot of time abroad, and I've also spent a lot of time in countries uh where the State Department says, "Hey, maybe don't." Um, and so, you know, it I think that there's just always ways to to make sure that you keep yourself safe, uh, and you're just sort of apprised of whatever the the difficulties may be. I think one of the the biggest problems that we as Americans tend to have uh, when we travel is actually being being overly cautious and not uh, and not not not trusting and and sort of being polite to people around us and assuming that everybody is out there to to, you know, throw you in the back of a van.
And I've only been thrown in the back of a van like two times. So like, you know, that's great.
>> Did you die? No.
>> Thank you. Thank you. Exactly. Um, yeah.
I mean, look, it's a it's a global it's a glo global state department warning.
I'm really interested to hear um uh what uh what our our man on the inside has to say about this. Uh because they do not issue these warnings lightly. Um, but one of the things that I wanted to sort of point out, uh, for anybody who's going to be traveling this summer or anybody who's concerned about their travel is that, you know, there really is no such thing as an absolute universal threat to everybody everywhere. And so maybe the the best advice that I can offer as somebody who just came back from a conflict zone and and is uh and will probably travel to another one fairly s soon um is to to know as much about that space as possible to have contacts on the ground to know how you're getting from point A to point B. Um and also just to to understand what the threat would actually look like in any given situation. Um, I mean, I know when I flew into uh Somalia for the first time, there's obviously it's it's uh in the news it is it is a place that it seems as soon as you get there like uh you know, you're just you're just shuttled off off somewhere. Uh >> I am the captain now. It's all over.
>> Yep. Exactly. And and you know, it's like there you you realize how many families are are just showing up at the airport to pick up their families and and how how normal things really are.
That doesn't mean that you don't have to have your your head about you. You really do. Um but but I I think just understanding what the what the threat would actually look like uh versus just sort of letting your imagination run away with you is is the best thing that you can do if you're traveling. Uh but it's also one of the best things you can do as an American because, you know, I think for most Americans, it feels right now like the the alarm bells are ringing all the time, right?
>> It does. Yeah. It feels very scary. And that's also a part of fascism and authoritarianism is to make you too afraid to move, too afraid to enjoy other people, constantly paranoid, very paralyzed, very like, well, I'm only going to stay in the United States. I'm not going to travel. I'm not going to trust anyone outside of here.
>> I don't think you should be popping off to Saudi Arabia necessarily right now or Dubai ever. I think you know >> no you're >> you're exactly right about about how how useful uh that that sort of like internal felt sense of of fear is for authoritarian governments right because there is you know I I studied I studied psychological operations at a at a government think tank um and one of the things that I think a lot of uh people that don't have a theater degree when they're studying psychological operations uh don't think about is just how much your own internal life really really does dictate what you believe to be true at any given point. And so one of the things that is it makes it very easy to grab a hold of your internal life is by making you afraid and then offering yourself as the uh solution to that fear. Oh, you're afraid of that foreigner over there or that trans person or that antifo, whatever that looks like.
>> Whatever it is, guess what? I've got a I've got an ice for you. Um and uh and yeah, don't don't accept that.
[laughter] >> Yeah. Period. Um there are some people from America that will be traveling shortly to hostile territory. One of them being our director of the FBI, Cash Patel. [laughter] >> I just saw this. I >> Cash Patel's going to Moscow. Well, continuing a long tradition of Republicans spending secret time in Moscow, which is not weird at all. So Cash Patel, who is probably the most, in my opinion, easily compromised American figure in government right now. I mean, this guy, he is just he'll do anything for a laugh and a tickle. He really will. And so Russia's going to run him ragged. He's going for 4 days. And he won't say why he's going. He's allegedly going maybe in October. Um might could be next week. He doesn't want to talk about it. It's all very top secret and only he really knows about it. He's going for 4 days. The thing that he did say though is that his host for this will be the Russian organization uh the FSB which is the new KGB.
>> So I was like okay >> what is going on? [laughter] >> This is this is one of those things where I'm like who who's winning in the media thing here? was the FSB cuz this is the the the the internal intelligence service of of Russia. Um and so were they like I can't believe he accepted invitation. We've got to tell everybody like I mean Dimmitri if you're here known and we'd love to chat with you but >> can you enter the chat please?
>> So I I went to look and I was like okay because we know that Putin was KGB. We know KGB are the Russian spy organization. It's not great America.
this is an American enemy technically like or adversary not enemy but this is not friendly friendly situations right and so I went to look up you know the FSB and see like how it worked here and so this this is what I found about where it kind of started so if you go back to like 1991 it's moving over from essentially the KGB to this new organization and they are tasked with counter foreign intelligence ops combat terrorism combating crime providing domestic intelligence safeguarding Russia's borders safeguarding information security so you're like Okay, that's kind of some of the stuff the FBI does. Maybe I could make the case for why Cash Yap Patel needs to be meeting with them except for the fact that we don't share intelligence with Russia. These are not partners to us.
So, the fact that they do the same jobs here, we should not be meeting with them. There's not one thing. We shouldn't be telling them anything that has to do with any of this stuff because they're not going to tell us. And then this is a little bit where they cross over with some some subsidiary functions. the idea of counter intelligence, political security, political intelligence, law enforcement, active measures. What would our FBI director and podcaster chief have to do for 4 days inside this department?
>> Well, my guess is that it's got to involve snorkeling. Uh, and probably a jet ski. Isn't that on his rider? Is it always? He's got to snorkel.
>> Yeah. What are they going to take him to? He's going to Moscow and St. Petersburg. So he So I'm sure they must be What would be like the fun thing for a tourist to do that like nobody else could do in Moscow? He's going to the >> We have snorkeling here too. Um >> yeah, we'll take you underwater.
[laughter] >> Can I let me just one of the the the uh bosses that I've had in in the world of national security consistently said you need to think dumber, right? Like just just think dumber about certain things. And so let's let's do that. Let's go the dumb way. Okay. So the dumb way is um what could Russia stand to gain from this? Uh well uh you can just not let Cash Patel come back. That's a really like that's just kind of a a US selfown. Um, the other one is the fact that the principles like the head of the FBI uh are nodes for information and they are pretty darn good at gaining information from people and and you know, this is not exactly the the same same as it was in in the 1960s and 70s. You know, you've got data sniffers that are going to be able to uh to to draw things out of his phone. I'm assuming that he's going to get a travel phone for all of this. I mean, I I just hope that his >> take his girlfriend. Like, what is he going to do? That's the thing that I don't understand is the Kremlin and all of the FSB or the KGB or whatever you want to call them. Um, these are trained operatives. These are people who from childhood are chosen to become secret weapons of the Russian government. Cash Patel is a loser with the podcast who was enough of a loyalist to get a job in Trump's administration. He is easily flattered. He is not trained in counter intelligence like interception. He He didn't.
>> Eric, I'm so They're going to get him drunk and throwing shots of vodka in ice shot glasses at the wall and he's going to tell him everything.
>> What? Cash Patel, you like beer, too?
That's so crazy. So do we.
>> Cool.
>> Oh my god, we have 17 beers here.
>> He'll bring over his like special FBI branded whiskey and give them challenge coins. They'll be best friends in five minutes. Oh god, his punisher challenge coin. Why do we have to have such an embarrassing set of administrators?
Wait, but is he is there a stated purpose at this point of his or is he just being is he just being super koi about it? Cuz that >> super koi about it. He's not saying and the fact that it's now like look. So then when people don't give us information, then I have to fill it in with conspiracy and what I think might happen and that involves all my own bias and fears. So my conspiracy is that it's 3 weeks before the election that he's allegedly supposed to be going. Why would you be in another country, an adversarial country, a country that your own FBI has an active list of Russian spies you're allegedly still trying to arrest for interfering in the 2016 election? Why would you be over there 3 weeks before our election with on some secret mission being hosted by the KGB?
>> Right. Well, and so the the FBI and and FSB work a little bit differently than one another. So they're not like a onetoone parody. Um the the thing that I could think uh I mean it's kind of crosswise the uh ideas here because the the FBI should be and does on a consistent basis uh find Russian agents and uh either arrest them or deport them um or convict them for for espionage.
>> So is he is he going over is Russia giving up their dudes? This is on the FBI website today wanted by the FBI.
Russian interference in 2016 elections which is wild that it's still up. This is how uninvolved and unserious these people are about their own websites.
>> That is like >> I highly doubt that.
>> That's a lot of dudes with the exact same haircut, too. They all have just the absolute charm of a potato. Um I think I think that um if they were going to be arresting these people, uh then they probably wouldn't make such a public declaration of it. If they were going to do some sort of a spy swap, they wouldn't do a public declaration of it until after it's actually happened. uh I mean this is this is something that happens with some frequency. The other thing is, you know, the the uh uh the potential that uh and I I hope this is not the case uh that uh Cash Patel is doing double duty for the lack of leadership in ODNI. Um because ODNI, the office of the director of national intelligence should be the one that is dealing with foreign intelligence services whereas the FBI is working specifically with federal crime and federal intelligence operations. Uh, so anything that crosses state lines, which also makes it a little bit fishy.
I mean, the whole thing about Charlie Kirk is very fishy, but you have somebody who never crossed any sort of state lines and suddenly it became a federal case. Makes very little sense.
Um, but it just seems that wherever wherever uh something fishy is going on, you will find Cash Patel in a six-pack.
>> You're saying something very serious and then I had a memory that is making me giggle and I'm choking on the giggles.
lyric. I can't wait to hear what >> I was like, what are what are they going to do with cash in Moscow? Well, what did So then I was like, well, what did they do with other like very dumb, easily flattered Americans that they were trying to compromise before? Oh, Donald Trump. Oh, Donald Trump and the alleged golden showers in the Moscow Hotel.
>> Official [laughter] PeeP tapes. Do you think that we're going to get a a PP tapes, too? Two PP2 furious. Like [laughter] >> are we going to get PP tapes 2 Tokyo Drift? [laughter] >> We are going to get PP Tapes 2 taken the the Russian Oh no.
>> I cannot even I cuz I was like [clears throat] well what did they do last time they had somebody as dumb that they were trying Oh, it was Donald Trump. Oh, the president. Oh, of course the steel dossier claiming that Trump hired sex workers in a Moscow hotel room to engage in golden showers in front of him. an act that was secretly filmed by Russian intelligence for blackmail comprom. Now, this no public evidence has ever surfaced to verify the tape's existence, but that doesn't mean that it's not like burned into my head. And I'm not like, well, >> it was such a detailed accusation um that I think we all just imagined.
>> His defense was, I wouldn't do that because I am a germaphobe. And I'm like, okay, but but what what the actual thing said, it was not that people were urinating on the president, but that he was having them do golden showers on each other and he was watching. So your germaphobia really isn't a good defense here.
>> Also, urine is sterile, I believe.
>> I believe so.
>> Let's back. Is the urine of the prostitutes [laughter] hired in the Moscow hotel room sterile?
Is it special? Are they kept >> on a dime of pineapples? like what's going on? [laughter] >> We get like a Jubilee fact check and it's like fact check, >> right? [laughter] >> Honey pots from Russia do have sterile urine.
>> I know, but I'm like okay. So, so that's I suppose that's even being mentioned is insane to me. Um, I I like I do not under like I think the only the only place that that Russia and the United States can be sort of like talking about right now is is trying to find an entity to Ukraine and then maybe maybe on the periphery um trying to uh negotiate some sort of settlement about what's going on in West Africa with uh Russia just kind of having having them uh they're just being beaten up by uh jihadists and uh to separatist in Mali Burkina Faso and Nishair and all those hunters are like calling the US president being or US Department of Defense and being like yo you guys up cuz Russia's kind of like not working out for us.
>> So I can't think of anything else that they might like what else are we what are you calling about Russia? What are you what do you want >> Demetri? Please just let us know. Okay, because we would love that scoop. All right.
>> He's just such a cool guy. We want to hang out with cool guys with cash.
>> Cool. You know what? We've got hockey here. I know you love hockey, Cash. So, >> anyway, so we'll we'll keep an eye on that. See what's going on with that. The nonsense of that whole situation. We'll see if he even makes it to October in this administration. Every day is a gift. So, >> I'm shocked that like a lot of these folks have have hung on. I mean, I I was just I was just thinking back on on uh Christine Gnome uh and and how we just like it's so it's so nice to not hear from her again. Um like it's great. The there's this whole like pantheon of of folks in the Trump administration who we just have never heard from again. And I would love it if if Cash Patel would join that pantheon. That'd be really cool.
>> I think that would be good. I think that that would be good.
>> Stay safe, Cash though. Global global security alert on right now. Literally, please. You know what I mean? Because like even if here's the thing, I don't root for this administration or this government at all. And I also understand how incredibly bad for our security it would be if an American diplomat or administration official were to be compromised or captured or, God forbid, hurt. There's that would go very poorly.
The military would act in in insane ways like they are right now.
>> Yeah. But let's uh let's move over from Russia to China for a quick second because China [laughter] >> China's out there doing what China does which is >> not giving a [ __ ] Yeah. They do not they are not they have an ego resilience as a country that is maybe as a result of their thousands of years of dynasty.
But the more Trump >> tries to like mess with them, the more they're like, "Okay, >> yeah, [laughter] >> whatever." I I was I I just finished uh which also if I've been if I've been quiet on the socials lately, it's because I've been working on a big report. I I I'm putting it out this week. So, if you're uh subscribed to the end of report, you can read what I my forecast for the next 90 days. Um and I was looking back at the last 90 days of China and how well they have fared. Uh a lot of the uh a lot of the analysis around China and China had been >> at the very beginning of the war with Iran is oh my gosh, you know, uh uh the the US, if this goes well, really does have China in quite a bind because the oil has been taken out of uh Venezuela.
Now it's going directly to the US instead of China. And then what if we can take out some of the oil infrastructure from Iran going to China?
Turns out they just put that stuff onto rail cars instead of uh over the ocean.
They're paying a little bit more. Um but they're also buying from Russia now at a much more reduced price. And on top of that, >> since they had strategic reserves of fertilizer, they actually became a net fertilizer exporter. So there were a lot of questions earlier on as like well you know is China going to use this moment where the United States and a lot of the western world is distracted by uh Iran to make a move on Taiwan. And I mean my analysis for the next 90 days is absolutely not. It's just because they don't need to. They can just kind of wait to continue to be a beneficiary of the chaos that we've decided to cause for ourselves. Well, and he so Trump caused a little more chaos yesterday because much like telling Spain he doesn't want to do any trade with them anymore just off the cuff at the NATO summit. And then he he fired off a memo yesterday saying that the US Department of Defense contractors are no longer allowed to go to China first for rare earth minerals and and materials needed to make weapons. Now rare earth minerals are rare because you can only mine them in certain places and China is the place where people get the anti antimony is it that they need?
>> Yeah, antimony. Yeah, that's that's that's one of one of the things the 17 lanthnides that that make up the uh uh the rare earths technically actually only 14 of them are lanthnides and the other three are something that I don't remember the name of but >> well I don't know what a lanthnanide is.
So there we go. We're all learning [laughter] today. one little bar of the of the uh stuff we need to make bombs and stuff.
>> Yeah, it's a bomb making stuff bar.
Yeah.
>> Yeah. So, the mob So, he's not letting us buy the bomb making stuff bars from China because he's like, "No, they have too much power." And they're like, "Okay." Because their physical land mass sits over where the [ __ ] minerals are, okay? So, you can't you it's not like something you could just like bring the rare earth factory to the United States and produce it here. You have to get it there. So now Loheed Martin, Rathon, all these people are flipping out because they're like, "Look, you are on one hand saying to us, we need to produce all of these weapons and you've got all of this money for us to produce all of these weapons and our shareholders want that money to produce these weapons to continue your forever wear war in Iran. You're arming of Israel to destroy Lebanon. All of these horrible things that the American people don't want you to do, but that you're doing. So you want us to make these weapons. We can't make them unless we can go to China and get the stuff. and you keep pissing China off and now maybe like threatening China. Also, China's not going to sell us the stuff if they think we're going to use it on them.
>> So, like, can you chill? Can you The other the other portion of this too is that China has recently put export controls on I think it's called MP Minerals. Um, and then uh there was another company and basically they're the only game in town in terms of rare earth refinement in the United States.
So rare earths in general, like the the reason that that China really does have a strangle hold on rare earths is actually not that they are that rare. In fact, if you go outside and put your hand in some dirt and uh and look at it, you'll you'll see some lanthnides in there. Um they are kind of everywhere, but they are in the highest concentration over in certain areas of China. And then on top of that, they have the refinement infrastructure for it. Mind you, you're refining and storing 17 different rare earth minerals. And to do that, you need an enormous uh uh production base. And so the US has built up some of the capacity to do the refinement of it. But without them in the concentrations that we actually need, basically that business shuts down and our our material and and and arms business shut down.
Like I don't want us to have to use arms for anything really, but I do want us to have them. Um >> want us to have them. Yeah.
>> You know, that's national security, >> right? Um folks, if you are tuning in from Substack or Tik Tok or Instagram or anywhere else and you want us to see your comments, you've got to find us on the YouTube link. That's where you can see the chat. For whatever reason, the streaming platform that we use only allows me to see the the YouTube comments. So, we're working on trying to fix that. But if you're commenting and you want us to see it or if you have a question for the senator coming up, um, make sure that you are joining us on YouTube. It's just under the desk news's YouTube. You can find it over there. The chat is also half the fun of being on the live because like me and Eric are fun to listen to and talk to. But the people in the chat are also experts. So like we've got Shauno, who's a bio biologist, I believe you said bioscientist, uh, factchecking things as we go along, explaining what a lathanite is, and also >> Oh, hell yeah.
>> Also just making jokes like, I met a lanite once. He was nice, you know. So, [laughter] like the chat is really a big part of watching the show. Like we're funny, but the chat is way way funnier.
>> Shout out to the Lanides. Um, also this definitely is like this is high up there on my like first date topics as like, you know, rare earth are not actually that rare and the lanthnides, you know, because they have a specific magnetism.
>> I'm great. It's going well.
>> You're you're going it's going amazing.
It's No, you know why you don't have a girlfriend, Eric? because you keep going to the danger places, you keep going to the spicy sites. And women are like, "Look, [laughter] I our generation has has struggled for centuries with men who go on adventures and to wars, and you are a man who goes on adventures, okay?
So, >> I know. [laughter] >> Listen, I'm not blaming them. I get it.
They're they're looking for somebody with a long shelf life, and I'm just like constantly trying to get blown up."
And it's not gonna get easier for you with this Odyssey thing going on because we all saw Penelopey suffer through the 20 years. Okay. They're going to be like, "What the hell?
>> I'm a good man." And he goes on a damn adventure for 20 years. Seven of which he spends with the sea nymph. Sure.
Nothing weird went on there.
>> No. No. He was just growing the beard that entire time. Yeah. I think I think Odyssey wise, I'm like I'm a third of the way through. Like as soon as I get down to here, >> it goes. Yeah. Yeah. Do you do you w to uh talk about those uh those uh uh mysterious things in the desert in China too?
>> Yes.
>> Those are wild.
>> So Jennifer Yes, I do. So Jennifer Griffin, who is a reporter for Fox News, but not Fox News, the entertainment show that you guys are thinking about, Fox News, the actual newsroom, which has one of the best Pentagon reporters and war reporters in the game, Jennifer Griffin.
Super super fan of her work. and she had posted something the other day about this here, which is that China has put up uh a military training camp that is made up of mock buildings from Taipei, including the presidential office building and the National Defense buildings. And they are apparently practicing what it might look like if they were to invade Taiwan.
>> Yeah. And this this is also something that um uh you know the the China is big. That is the the geopolitical revelation that I'm I'm breaking uh right now. China's big and a lot of it is just real big desert and you can hide a lot of stuff in real big desert. Um and so this actually isn't even the only one of these sort of rehearsal spaces that they have out in the the the GOI desert there. Um they they've got, you know, rehearsal spaces for Taiwan, but they also have full uh mockups of US aircraft carriers uh that they use for for bombing runs. Um >> I'm going to pull that one up next. Yes, they have >> Oh, you have that? Okay. Yeah. Awesome.
>> They have a mock uh to test Yeah. on our ships if we >> there's a thing um because I'm I'm pretty fluent in in uh what I would call like old white war dad >> um and because it a lot of a lot of old white war dads uh read a lot of the books that I had to read for school and one of the things that they will say fairly consistently is about how like we're not worried about the Chinese Navy because the last time the Chinese Navy was at sea boats were made of wood, right? Um, and that is that's some sort of false hope. You know, the the the Chinese Navy and and their abilities out of of their own sort of backyard has advanced remarkably and they've outstripped us in ship building by magnitudes.
Um, and so when you see, you know, ships like this or mockups of of ships like this, this is preparation for blue water combat in the future. And, you know, the hope is that uh we won't run into what they call the theidities trap. And the theidities trap is where uh a falling power meets a rising power and they have to go to war with one another because nobody can get along for some reason.
This is uh uh this is a a concept that comes from uh the uh the uh I think it was the the pelpeneisian wars by Thusidities and it was with Athens going to war with Sparta. And so this was even mentioned by Xihinping uh pretty audaciously during the last time that uh uh he had Trump to Beijing and he said just sort of like randomly he was like and by the way JK lol he didn't say that um I hope that we can avoid the Thusidities trap.
>> Um yeah we all need to work together >> to avoid the thusidities trap destructive tensions between an emerging power and established powers. I mean, this is these are are are long-term fighting words, and it's it's really um it's like the preparations are clearly happening, right?
>> They are. And um I'm Okay, this is going to be Don't clip this, Lana. This is just for the chat and for the live stream right now, but I have I have another us and the tens of thousands of people watching. Um I have another thing that is sort of interestingly happening with China is we know that China has the capability to do propaganda. Their propaganda is not very good. It hasn't been in the past when it comes to influencing American opinion.
It's very pretty easy to see Chinese propaganda. However, they have improved significantly since 2020. And I'm not making any accusations, but I am going to call out something that is coming from Chinese accounts and Chinese newsrooms, which is state TV, that is celebrating a certain American streamer for the way that he has been dressing and presenting and for the way that he is in particular seemingly to be very um complimentary to China. Very much has spoken out about how he thinks Mao was one of the greatest leaders. This was something that concerned me, not that this person is doing anything wrong, but that this person could be used by China in future propaganda, especially leading up to our elections. And that is um of course Hassan, who I have no problem with Saran. I have no beef with Son Hassan. Um, but one of the things that they were most recently talking about was the Mao suits that he had made when he was visiting China and the fact that they are very pleased that he is wearing these to Democratic events and he is championing Mauism throughout his live streams and while he is meeting with college Democrats and things. And some folks are like, "No, he's not. It, you know, he's Turkish. That's a Turkish suit." That is not a Turkish suit. He went to China. He made videos talking about being in China having the traditional Chinese Mao suit made. So, I am I'm concerned about China looking at him as something that they could potentially manipulate. We've already seen the right-wing manipulate and make AI of Hassan doing things. I'm interested to see if China is also going to try to use Hassan to do something weird. Well, one of the things that you look at in terms of these like widnet information space projects is um you you start to look at uh who do you have in terms of your key opinion leaders or your KS, right? And so your your Koss are going to uh ideally uh they're going to promote your message uh but sort of harmonize it specifically for their audience. Wasn't it you who was telling me about like um uh Sneo having like clearly having a message that was was like sent to him in an email and he didn't he just like copy pasted it >> and he copy pasted it and said amp this up and make it more inflammatory for X.
Yes.
>> Yeah. So it's like you know we we can see uh the the sort of uh uh bells and whistles of of information space warfare and of course you're going to use Koss.
you're going to this is exactly the same thing as as Israel bringing clvicular to Israel in some sort of charm offensive.
Um but I think that one of the uh one of the things that we have to sort of be cognizant of is you know what are the actual geostrategic goals of of China's information space uh activities versus let's say a Russian information space activity. Um, China is really all about um, sort of ingratiating the West and Western audiences to the Chinese point of view of things. And I think some of that is fairly positive. Uh, and a lot of it isn't very positive. You know, the United States did this masterfully with uh, Hollywood between the 70s and the '9s. Um, you know, there's there's not like I was I I live in Albania and there's a uh they were under isolationist communism for until 1991 and at one point I was with a friend and she started quoting Demolition Man perfectly. I'm like, why do you know every word to demolition man? She's like, well, it was the first movie that came over here after the fall of communism. Like some of that is sort of positive information space work and then sometimes it becomes really really negative. China wants to make sure that the United States remains a fairly robust economy, but it wants to switch the beneficiary of that economy from the United States and the United States people to the CCP. And so if we can get people off of the platforms and the marketplaces that benefit the United States and of course the the public forums that benefit the United States and get them onto the Chinese version of that, well then we benefit. whereas Russia just kind of wants to be a bold in the China shop. Oh, pun totally not intended. Um, yeah. Uh, and and just sort of uh so discord as much as they can because then it paralyzes the American system. Um, so yeah, I mean, you know, we're we're we're in anformational shooting gallery right now. It's it's an interesting time and there's this [clears throat] there's a term that maybe we'll get into next week if we do a little bit of history because we're running out of time before the senator gets here about what is the difference between being sort of like DSA leftist and being what is derogatorily called a tanky and maybe we just >> something that Ched wrote about for me a while ago because it's like it's just something that's so far away from like the normie person's experience but it is this idea that um it's the it's burn it all down idea. Essentially, Tanky is a derogatory term for a hardline leftist who defends authoritarian, Soviet, Chinese, or similar communist regimes, labeled those who prioritize defending state power over human rights, often denying historical atrocities and dismissing criticism of these governments as Western propaganda. So, you may have somebody defending Mao and they're like, "Okay, but he killed 70,000 or 70 million of his own people or whatever." And they're like, "That's Western propaganda. In the end, he was about returning the means of production to people. He was about this, that, the other." So, they're taking essentially the theology of what it could have been and excusing or not wanting to discuss or violently attacking you for trying to discuss any of the consequences of that particular dictator when they actually got into power. So, that's like Palpatine did nothing wrong. The >> Exactly. Yeah. It's that kind of >> the Jedi Knights are are religious extremists. Yeah.
>> Right. So, it's that kind of stuff and and a lot of this is driven by chronically online people and things.
And so that's why I don't usually bring it up because a lot of the stuff that's happening in like the chronically online man spaces is not something that's going to like make its way into our current realities. And so >> I like go back and forth on how important it is.
>> I kind of struggle with the terms to be honest. Like I I was talking with somebody online the other day and they were they were they were lecturing me on on Hezbollah and what Hezbollah actually is. And I was like I spent the last like two weeks with Hezbollah. like none of these things are accurate. And it's like well and then I'll I'll sort of like be assaulted with like a fuselot of of international relations college terms and I'm like I nobody talks about mckinder or constructionism or or like um you know um uh realism in the real world like they they talk about whether or not their lights are on and whether or not they can afford bread and whether or not their their kids can leave the country to go and see their grandparents with the uh assumption that they're going to be able to get back safely Like that's real politics to me. And so anything that sort of diverges from that into sort of ideological Pokemon card training or trading, it just I don't I don't care, man.
>> I don't I don't care. And I also don't seek to like spend time getting into Yeah. And I'm not a debate channel. So I know oftentimes like the culture of streaming is if somebody is brought up then it then you're like, "Oh, we're going to have a debate. We're going to go back and forth." I'm not and I I'm not interested. Um, so there's that. And the thing that I'm I'm actually concerned with and sort of like the way that for months my conception of like what young men were covering was about clavvicular and the moves he was making and being like, okay, he's obviously being manipulated by this particular entity. And but he is still an an adult man who should be responsible for his actions, but he is also 22, so responsible within the realm of like the range of experience that he has. And now I'm seeing this happen where they are making Hassan like this this central figure, this boogeyman, this person who is the center and the nucleus for all the things that anybody wants to talk about. They just >> well the left must believe this because he said that, >> right? Because he said that or or they're just projecting things whole cloth on him because putting his face in the thumbnail will make your YouTube do better. So, there's a little bit of like marketing fluff that's happening. And then there's real concerns I have about his rhetoric. And then there's real concerns I have about how other foreign adversaries are using him. And then there's the fact that our own government, the president of the United States, released a 100page document drafted by our Secretary of State Marco Rubio, a longtime senator, a serious person or should be that lists Hassan [ __ ] as a far-left terrorist threat.
you guys. Ah, so this I I was >> they also listed Eve Enler, the lady who wrote uh vagina monologues.
>> We all saw that in college. All of us are Hassan um George Floyd who has been uh deceased for six years. These are far-left terrorist cells. And I'm like we >> Emanuel Miranda. Yes. [laughter] So I'm like you guys >> all the cats from the musical cat. Yes.
All of those cats are are Leninist Marxists. Yes. [laughter] >> And then you have like the bot campaigns also that are creating these far-left left terror cells that are not real to reinform like to reinforce this Republican idea that everybody is a communist and that communism is a genuine threat and that it must be put down like in the 1950s McCarthyism. All of this is Trump reheating Roy Conn and Joseph McCarthy's 1950s greatest hits.
Well, this is do I mean, look, I'm sure that you you get a lot more of this than me, actually. Um, but I like I'll be I'll be responding to con uh comments sometimes and um you know, I'll I'll be I'll be called like two different versions of SCOPS and they're like, "Well, you're just working for X, Y, and Z or you're working for AB and C." And I'm like, and then like at a certain point I like somebody's been [clears throat] telling me that I'm like I'm being paid by somebody so often that I'm like, >> where are my checks? Where do I The more people are like, who's paying you? I'm like, I would love for someone to pay me. You know who pays me? The Substack subscribers. Everything on Under the Desk News is sponsored by $7 a month Substack subscribers and the few little little deals I have with like Delete Me and Ground News. Other than that, I work full-time. Like, I work to like jobs and write and do things to like support this content being free.
>> The best thing I can ever say, and I I've said this in in the the field and and to to other journalists that I'm I'm working with is that that when they ask who I work for and I say I work for my readers and I work for my audience.
>> That's true.
>> Um, and I I like I'm I feel really glad about that. But it also makes means that you have to hold yourself to a way higher standard of like well I can't just sort of shift the blame that editor at the New Yorker or whatever wasn't so hot like you you have to know that you're not being a scop like we can't clvicular out >> well and we've talked about several times especially as we get closer to the election and I said it would start in August and it's starting now so it's uh it's a little early but not too early the the election interference won't come in the form of them getting into the the ballot boxes and being able to change or delete votes. It comes in the form of negging you out and because people who don't feel hope don't vote. It's why I say we have to be remain defiant optimists because if they can make you think that me and Eric are scaps who are paid to like neg you out and you can't trust us and everything we say is a lie and a distraction and wrong and and we have all these nefarious horrible thoughts, then you're not going to trust us. You're not going to feel safe here.
You're not going to be in the chat.
you're going to start to isolate and an isolated public is much easier to control and an isolated public who doesn't think they can believe in anything won't vote for anything. That is actually how voter suppression is most impacted and we see it with the attacks that happen on Amanda last week being clipped out of context. You see it on it happens to Miss Frazzled sometimes the teacher. It happens to Miss Rachel where people will take things and they will try to make you believe that Mr. Rogers was actually like a horrible murderer who kept children in his basement. And by the time you realize that that's not true, you've already like gone through an exhaustive cycle.
So we told you that they will come after anybody who is trustworthy or trying to do any kind of optimistic work, especially if it results in helping the Democrats and that will come from both the burn it all down far left and the right. So that's >> cyn cynicism is actually incredibly easy to um to to incept into a population. Um and it comes from you know one of the the most dangerous political thoughts that I I hear people utter with uh with pretty common frequency especially in the United States is well I just hate both sides. And it's like it and it does it does feel like we're we're sort of shoved between two binaries, neither of which are ideal, but like democracy is never about ideals, right? It's about uh trying to to find the the middle ground between two opposing sides and then either and then hopefully through that antagonism a better system emerges. Um that's the bargain of it. Uh and that bargain starts to break when two things happen. one, people don't participate, and two, people are not able to access uh the actual same facts that everybody else is working off of. Uh an educated electorate is the only way that democracy works. Um democracy is compromising for a living, marriage, right, guys?
>> Yeah. [laughter] >> See, he's ready. He's ready. I'll only go on a couple danger adventures a year.
It'll [laughter] be okay.
I was just having that conversation with my mom.
>> Yes. So [laughter] that's that's that's where we're at with that kind of stuff.
And so what I have seen going through several different election cycles now, both federal and local, is that this lasts until uh November 4th, and then you will suddenly see it all go away.
And whether it is uh people trying to make Hassan this massive boogeyman or Hassan doing things that are unsaavory like those things will be escalated and amplified off the charts to absurdity levels whether it's people saying you can't trust me or me and Eric are paid ops or who or Monty's a paid oper they're compromised it's it's actually Lana Demetri so >> the fact is you know what's true in your heart you know where you were before and if It feels like from now till November suddenly, oh my gosh, I didn't think I knew that about that person or that creator or that politician or that whatever. Come on, man.
>> Yeah. Well, and there's also there's a a wonderful a wonderful phrase that uh that I think is attributed to to St. Ignatius Loyola, the sort of like the guy who started the Jesuits who were like the sort of uh Navy Seals of of theocracy back in the back in the day.
So a lot of the the sort of like Catholic institutions and and uh educational institutions were start were started by Jesuits. And one of the things that that I tend to find myself uh reminding myself of when I'm looking at a particularly complicated issue I reminded myself of this you know earlier [clears throat] today as I'm looking into the Houthis and it's the idea is that you descend into the specifics.
Descend into the specifics. And I think to myself, anytime I think that I know something for certain, um, I I realize that that there is an initial sort of emotional reaction that takes over and then I need to descend into the specifics and then I realize, oh my gosh, I know so much less about the history of the nuance behind this thing and the picture actually emerges. Um, and so, you know, it's it's like that when when we're looking at what our political choices are and whether or not we have agency and and it is it is every narcissist's desire to make you feel as if you do not have agency. And that is it is it is your absolute ability to rebel against that, especially when the narcissist is our own government.
>> We got to do it. Well, Eric, uh, stay safe out there. We'll find you a wife someday when your adventures die down or somebody who could go on the adventures with you. Maybe that's what we're missing.
>> Call Ukraine and ask for Eric. I'll be there. [laughter] >> Yeah, he'll be there. Um and then next week you do owe me the dance. So get your dance on next week is the week it will happen. And make sure you guys are following the underreport.io. Is that what you're on now?
>> Uh so uh the under reportport on uh Tik Tok. Uh, E Zooler, E C as in cat, Z is in zebra. U L E G- E R, uh, is my Tik Tok. And, uh, the underreport.io is the where you can get my, um, my newsletter.
And this week, I'm coming out with my next 90-day forecast uh, for what happens in the next 90 days and also my report card on how my forecasts did over the last 90 days. So, I'll tell you what I was right about, what I was wrong about. Um, and, uh, yeah. So, uh, look forward to that. Sounds good. Thanks, Eric. We love you. We'll see you next week, hopefully. You know, that's the risk with Eric. It's like, will he be here? I hope he will. Right now, he's in Albania. He is going to be going out to Ukraine. So, uh, you know, we can't stop him. We can't stop him from from being who he wants to be. Another fellow that we can't stop, and I'm very excited uh actually that we can't stop because he's doing incredible work. We are very lucky to have Senator Mark Warner from the great state of Virginia with us next.
Senator Warner is the vice chairman for the Select Committee on Intelligence and has spoken strongly about Trump's effort to see doubt in our elections. He also has information about how Trump's current foreign policy gaffs are causing us trouble at home. So, thank you so much for being here, Senator.
>> Hey, thank you, V.
>> What's happening?
>> What's happening? Like, holy crap. Where do you Where do you want me to start? I mean, >> I know. Well, one, I want to give you a cookie and tell you that I felt like you did a really, really good job with pre-bunking Trump's speech from last Thursday, saying like, look, this is what this man is going to get out here and say to you, because so often we're like on the back foot of his lies. And I thought that that really helped people put context around what he was going to say, where it even aired. A lot of the networks wouldn't even air it, thankfully. Um, so I really appreciated that.
>> CBS didn't did it. And I and I I gave him some grief and I really was kind of thinking like Walter Kronhite and Edward Morrow have to be rolling in their graves as two great CBS journalists.
>> Well, and that's what we talked about.
We have to be an Edward Muro these days because Trump's trying to do a McCarthyism again. It's Roy Conn all over. Um but I wanted to ask you uh quick starting. We're going to do Iran, China, then the election interference.
Quick as can be. Iran has said that we're in a full-scale war right now.
One, what does that mean? Is there a way to end this? What what what are you thinking?
>> This is maybe of all the things Trump has done internationally, his biggest mistake and biggest folly.
>> Yeah.
>> You know, he had he finally set out four goals. Regime change, no, not so much.
Enrich getting rid of the enriched uranium, not so much. Take 15,000 troops on the ground. We're gonna get rid of their missiles and drones. Well, [ __ ] That's what you think they're shooting. And by the way, how's that opening the straight of Hormuz going?
Gas is up to four bucks. You know, diesel's at five. And we have actually almost run out of just as a quick aside.
I know we want to go quick, but you know, Iran shoots off these $50,000 drones. We use missiles that cost more than $2 million a piece to shoot them down, right?
>> The one country I saw Eric before who's going to Ukraine that's figured out how to shoot down Iranian drones cheaply is Ukraine >> at five grand a pop. And yet we we told them to go pound sand when they came and offered us that technology. So there is no good way out. Um I think it's time for Trump, you know, to declare victory and get the hell out of this war. Um there was a reason why nobody else, the Iranians leadership been bad for 47 years, but you know, taking on a war with Iran without a plan, without allies, >> you know, this is imminently predictable.
>> The sooner sooner we get done and out, uh the better. And if we don't end, I don't know how at the end of the day we're going to look better than we were when before we started this on February 28th. But the alternative of this dragging on in another endless war in the Middle East would be a freaking disaster.
>> Yeah, you got to let go of the escalated investment. Trump, you've put too much into it. You will continue to get nothing out of it. It it has to end. And the killing of in innocent civilians certainly has to end. Now, somebody who's watching what we're doing in Iran and going, "Maybe they're a little distracted right now. maybe this would be a good chance for us to move is China. And a report came out from Jennifer Griffin yesterday showing that not only does China have the ability to practice invasion maneuvers with their mil military at the site in Magnol in Mongolia where the they have replicas of like the Taiwan and president's office and department of defense, but they also have a mock of a US destroyer now that they are practicing with. Can you talk about how concerned you are with China's ability to move in the South Pacific right now? You know, Xi Jinping, the Chinese president has said forever he wanted, you know, China to take back Taiwan. They feel it's part of their country. He was training the PLA, the People's Liberation Army, more towards a 27 28 goal frame. Mhm.
>> I don't know whether they are going to I hope they don't move that timetable up because um I think inherently they are still um a little nervous about how the PLA would perform, >> but that doesn't mean they're not going to do everything possible to ratchet up the pressure, >> right?
>> And so um um you know, the good news is I think for a long time the Taiwanese didn't take this threat as seriously as we did. I mean, even though it's their country, they were kind of like, "Oh, we don't think he's going to do it." Well, now they're training better. They I think Ukraine's ability to fight back, the complete transition of warfare in terms of drone usage. I hope the Taiwanese have learned that. We have not, obviously, as we saw in the Iran war. Um, but I am ongoing concerned. I I'm not as concerned about an imminent invasion as I may be concerned about Chinese AI models, you know, jumping the fence and getting ahead of us. And yeah, on the other hand, I don't want to I don't want us to kind of buy into this.
Well, we've got to have no guard rules on AI so that we beat the comp competition with China. But I'm not uh that this threat of China taking on Taiwan in the in the interim real there.
But I've seen nothing yet to think that it that's to use the quotes around the Iran war, no imminent threat.
>> Right. Okay. So that seems good. That seems that seems at least at least one less thing to worry about at a level 10, but certainly something to keep an eye on. Now, the other thing that Trump tried to say in his speech on Thursday was that the deep state kept classified secrets from him about China interfering in the 2020 election to help Biden.
Senator Warner, who was the deep state, because he was the president at the time. Wouldn't he be the state? He was the sitting president in 2020. Wouldn't he be the deep state if the deep state were to exist? Can I can I say on on on your show [ __ ] >> Yeah.
>> [ __ ] I mean like again to drive home v what you just said is like the guy who was the director of national intelligence during the 2020 election is John Radcliffe.
>> If he was overseeing and didn't, you know, didn't let all the information out. Matter of fact, there was there was a full-fledged intelligence analysis report from all 18 of our agencies that had Radcliffe sign off on it that got pre presented to the president January 7th, the day after the awful riots here on the the capital saying, you know what, here's what happened in 2020.
Russia, China, um Iran tried to influence Russia the most on behalf of Trump.
>> Iran next and they were kind of anti-Trump and China a little mixed.
they have the capability, but it was more like let's just screw up people's confidence.
>> And that John Radcliffe, the director of national intelligence, signed off on that. John Radcliffe's job today is the CIA director, you know, if he had done something wrong or hidden something. Why does he have a promotion or at least a lateral movement? So, there was nothing new in in in his rant the other night. What we should be concerned about, we should be concerned ongoing about the ability to use a single piece of information as a reason to bring in troops or ICE.
Remember, the intelligence community gets literally millions of pieces of data every day. The job of the analysts is to kind of sort that through and come up with a conclusion. And the conclusion was um virtually unanimous. There was somebody who said, "Well, China might do a little bit more, but they even said there was no ability to change any votes in the 2020 election."
>> Right. Right.
>> And then on top of that, but the thing I I maybe in many ways fear the most, and I don't want to on a pre-bunk um uh predict something that comes to pass, the only way at this point that Trump could meaningfully stop our elections this year is if somehow he declares any voting machines, they are so vulnerable that we can't use them. It would be virtually impossible for any state now to take out all their voting machines and retrain people. Now, he does not have that ability. He could not do a presidential decree. But what makes me concerned about this is there's a little known group called the Elections Assistance Commission.
>> And he has over quietly over the last couple months fired the Democrats, made the Republican quit.
>> So that whole tool is being taken out.
And the amazing thing as well is all of the election security stuff that was ironically set up during his first term, a foreign malign influence center at Director of National Intelligence, a special group working at the FBI on these issues. Um something called ERIC that's basically a voluntary thing between states. So if Mark Warner moves from Virginia, you know, to California and not voting in both places, although he's encouraging many Republican states to pull out of this, but he's so undermining the the security system, I still have faith in our local elections >> that that's where I fear he may go next on the voting machine approach or on taking a false pieces of information and using it as an excuse. I don't think we're done with this effort. I mean, as bad as he was reviewed that last Thursday night, this guy knows if there's free and fair elections, uh, he's >> he'll lose. So, what are the Senate Democrats doing to stop this continuation from the Trump administration trying to meddle in the elections or or even just make people feel like, what's the point in voting?
It's going to be corrupt. It's a wreck.
>> Well, you just you just hit the the goal right there. His goal >> is to make people say, "Hey, it's not worth it."
>> Right. Um, weirdly though, the last time he tried to do this was in a major way was in Georgia and it depressed some of his own voters coming out and I think the country's better and George is better with John Oaf and Raphael >> War and his senators. Uh, so I think you know people who want to return to democracy, we ought to get angry and say you're not going to take away my vote.
You're not going to intimidate me.
>> Um, and we're going to vote in record numbers. He may be knowing that things are so bad that if his his core base says, "Well, it doesn't count." Then he can he can brood and and and fight and and so forth. But here's what we're doing. There's two sets of things. one, there are about 75 civil society, civil rights, and voting rights groups that literally meet every day >> and and they're preparing the lawsuits and they they've got the poll watchers and they're taking the whole legal process. And I actually do think if we get to a vote, there's enough legal backup to make sure the votes are counted. where I've been trying to spend my time and you know I think a little bit successfully if based on last Thursday is pre-budding and then trying to line up experts who are not politicians but you know >> uh intelligence officials, voting officials, law enforcement, military so that if he pulls something people that have some level of trust that can say hey you know that didn't make sense that didn't pass a smell test. I mean, one of the people that were on last week was Sue Gordon, who was the deputy director of national intelligence under Trump in the first term, and she was great. She was an intelligence professional, and I think um you know, really did a great job. We need a hell of a lot more of that.
>> Yeah. So, do people should vote though.
They should vote.
>> Amen.
>> Your vote matters. It does matter. No matter how many times they try to tell you it doesn't, it'll be difficult or ICE will be there or your vote won't get counted or you'll get dirty looks or or whatever. It's they wouldn't be trying to stop you from voting if your vote did not matter, >> right? Amen. And please um you know, as Franklin said, you know, when our country is formed, it's a republic if you can keep it. And nothing would be more um nothing would be more god- aful if in our 250th year, you know, Trump has already, you know, kind of destroyed the national unity on July 4th.
>> If he was somehow able to corrupt have a corrupt election in our 250th year, shame on all of us.
>> So, with the last minute that I have for you, I heard yesterday that Cash Patel is going to be going off to Moscow for some secret meeting with the new version of the KGB. Senator, do you think that he's finally going to go and get these people wanted by the FBI for the Russian interference in the 2016 election?
Because this is on the FBI website right now, and I could only assume that our FBI director would be going to do the due diligence of American law enforcement if he was going all the way to Moscow.
>> The You're such a wholesome, good person.
Maybe he's going to just go back and you know the wild thing as we all know any of us who follow this Trump was willing to trash everybody in the world other than Vladimir Putin.
>> That's right.
>> That's a little weird.
>> That's his number going to go get the uh 2016 election interferes.
>> You know, I'm always hopeful, Senator, but >> thank you so much for that for that fact check, for pre-bunking some election misinformation, for continuing to be a defiant optimist, and for giving us the time today. I appreciate you so much.
Thanks, Pete.
>> Let you get back to work. Um, such such great information. So grateful the senator was able to spend some time with us here and uh unfortunately burst my bubble on the idea that Cash Patel might actually be doing some genuine law enforcement work. Don't worry, I didn't believe my own lies either. But next to help us understand a little bit more about what's going on in the Middle East is the journalist Greg Carlstrom, who is a new friend of the podcast here. This will be the first time that Greg is on.
Hello. How are you?
Thanks for having me.
>> We are excited that you are here. So, Greg covers the Middle East uh with 15 years in the region and is an expert on the Iran war including economic and geopolitical consequences which you are saying you expect to far outlast the US's time in the region. Can you talk just a little bit about with for a person with your experience how you feel this time with an American president trying to start a forever war over oil?
Well, I mean, it is turning into a forever war, it seems, right now. I mean, what's happening over the past 10 days, two weeks, this renewed uh exchange of strikes between the US and Iran, I think the the really confusing thing about it is it's not clear what the what the Americans are trying to achieve uh militarily. We've seen 10 days of uh strikes on radar installations, missile bases, things like that along the southern coast, mostly of Iran near the Persian Gulf and the Straight of Hormuz. Conceivably, the idea here is to try and reopen the straight so that vessels can use it again. But you can't bomb your way into the straight being open. The US tried that in the first round of this war from late February until uh midappril. It wasn't successful. It's not going to be successful here either. So we've now sort of both sides have abandoned the memorandum of understanding the the interim peace deal they signed last month. They're fighting again and it's not really clear to what end what the aim is.
>> So one of the other things that came up is this idea that the Houthis are sort of coming into this area on the Red Sea trying to interfere with Saudi Arabia's ports now because the the likelihood of the straight of Hormuz getting reopened anytime soon is very low. And so what Saudi Arabia has kind of been able to do is use this crude oil pipeline and come off the Red Sea ports. How effective do you think the Houthies can be in jamming up the ports and continuing to exacerbate the oil crisis >> if they want to be? They can be quite effective uh in doing that. I think we saw that uh a couple of years ago after October 7th when the Houthis uh announced a blockade of traffic uh through what's known as the Bean Mandab, which is the very narrow opening of the Red Sea. uh it would be in the southern part at the bottom of that uh graphic.
They closed it. By closing it, we mean they carried out some occasional attacks on commercial shipping. It's not like a literal blockade where they parked ships in the in the straight or, you know, pull the chain across it. But if you attack enough vessels, then scared to go through because they're worried they might get attacked as well. And for oil, there's not really a workaround to that bevel mandanda because at the northern end of the Red Sea, uh, you have the Suez Canal, but most oil tankers are too big to fit through the Suez Canal. A very large tanker uh just can't transit through. So, if they want to shut off traffic through Babanda, but will have an impact on on oil exports, on oil prices, what they're saying so far is that they're only targeting Saudi ships.
They say they're only blockading Saudi ships. Now, most of the tankers that take oil to and from from Saudi Arabia are not actually owned by Saudi Arabia.
They're from other countries. So, will the Houthis start attacking other ships as they did a couple of years ago, or will this be more narrowly focused on Saudi? We're just not sure yet.
>> There's a lot of misinformation and propaganda coming out that people on the internet love. Whether it's the Iranian Lego videos, which I got to say are very funny and well done, although uh certainly doing a number on Western like ideas of what's going on over there, but there's also a bunch of AI videos that have come out that allegedly show Iran totally decimating US facilities in the Middle East or totally killing thousands of troops and they're trying to seed all this doubt, not just in the Pentagon reporting deaths and injuries, which they have been slow to do, but making it seem as if Iran is winning in many ways.
How do you vet those that information and what do you know about how destroyed US bases have become in the Middle East because some of them did get wrecked.
>> Some of it is is honestly very hard to vet. I think with anything about casualties, yes, the Pentagon for a while, as you say, can suppress [clears throat] information about how many people were wounded. But if there was a significant number of American military deaths, I just don't think that's something that uh would stay hidden for long because you'd have families and friends and and people would talk about it. So on that side of it, I think we can dismiss the Iranian claims. In terms of damage, it's difficult because you can't as a journalist access uh these bases. You can't just rock up and and see what's going on. uh you have commercial satellite firms that are uh pixelating their satellite imagery uh from many of these American bases. So you can't get an accurate satellite picture. So you're trying to piece things together from from whatever reporting you can do from whatever is is leaking out on social media. I think we can say the damage is more extensive than the Pentagon has has acknowledged and bases like the naval base in Bahrain which is home to the US fifth fleet. uh Aloade air base in Qatar which hosts the regional headquarters of US central command. That one for example the the command center on that base was hit quite early on in the war and it was effectively unusable. So Sentcom was running the war not from Qatar across the Gulf from Iran uh but from a base in South Carolina because they couldn't use that facility.
>> So there's been damage to infrastructure. There have been refueling tankers, helicopters, surveillance aircraft that have been destroyed in Iranian strikes, but can I say I have a full accounting of what's been destroyed or damaged? Uh I I don't and and I haven't spoken to anyone who is willing to offer one.
>> I think that's really important for folks to know though because on social media you can come across thousands of videos that make it seem like, oh, the American media just isn't reporting this. And that is also part of a scup.
That is also not true. and and that is also to depress you to thinking that there's no way to win or that things are worse than they are or start to worry that perhaps the service member that you love and care for has been caught up in something that the Pentagon is lying about. And while the Pentagon does lie from time to time, they're not lying about mass casualties as far as we know right now. And it would be something that journalists would be able to figure that out. But perhaps to your point, not the level of like h how bad are the hotels or the buildings or the different things staying there cuz if if your guys aren't getting it, somebody on social media with, you know, a thousand followers in Florida probably didn't stumble across like a great video that that wasn't, you know, found by the folks who do this full-time for a job.
Um, the next uh thing I wanted to ask about is uh your thoughts on China sort of looking at what's going on here and advancing Senator Mark Warner was just on and he said that he's not especially worried at this moment that there's an eminent threat to Taiwan, but rather that China is using this time that the United States is tied up in Iran and doing all of these unfavorable things with Israel and Jordan to advance on things like AI to start to dispatch some of their election meddling if they're going to do that. What are your concerns about the threat from China right now on playing into things that are happening with the Iran war or the US being overdistracted?
I think China's in a very interesting place right now. On the one hand, they're they're probably quite happy to watch the US bog itself down in another seemingly aimless uh Middle Eastern war.
And and not just bog itself down, but burn through its stockpiles of uh air defense interceptors, guided missiles, all of the sorts of things that if there was to be a a future war over Taiwan, the Pentagon would really need and would really like to have. but instead that stuff uh is being used in Iran now. So for China, I think you watch as your adversary burns through its capabilities. That's probably a good thing from their perspective. At the same time, uh I think what's happening in energy markets might be a little concerning to China. Their economy >> is their top priority, right? The Chinese government every year wants to show that you know we are growing by four to five percent and that's foundational to their social contract with the public, >> right?
>> Domestic uh spending is low in China.
The domestic economy is sluggish.
Chinese consumers just aren't buying stuff. And so what's keeping the Chinese economy going right now is exporting goods to the rest of the world. If oil prices were to keep climbing and the world were to fall into a recession, that's quite bad then for China because it means not only are your own consumers getting pinched, but your export-led growth won't be there anymore. The rest of the world won't have as much money to buy your stuff. So, it's also been interesting over the past few months.
One of the reasons why oil prices haven't gone up to 150 or 200 or the the doomsday scenarios that people were predicting at the start of the war is that China has actually decreased its imports of oil and that's taking some of the pressure off markets. There's less demand for oil right now. So even as they're watching the US bog itself down and expend munitions and and so on, they're also quietly taking some steps to ameliate uh the worst of the energy crisis. China is right now the most important actor I would say in in oil markets.
>> Well, that is uh just one more thing to be worried about for the day. Um one of the things uh that I wanted to switch to also is we we often times talk about like what's the American impact? Are American people safe? what's up with this travel advisory that's going on, saying that places outside of the Middle East are vulnerable, that are US-based, but I really want to know what the impact on the Iranian people has been because of this war of opinion that that Trump has. We saw them protesting just a couple years ago with the woman life freedom demonstrations and more recently resisting the IRGC, resisting a monarchy again. Have you heard anything about the impact of Trump's war on their ability to organize and push forward? Have their goals changed for regime change out there? Like what's happening for the actual people suffering?
>> So I think one of the things that that analysts predicted at the start of the war and and that prediction has come true is that uh whilst the country is being bombed people are not going to mobilize against the government whilst the a foreign enemy is bombing that country. Uh and so I think to some extent in the short term I don't want to call it a rally around the flag effect because I don't think the the regime has sort of gained popularity amongst the the public but uh that that opposition that protest that is on hold for now and that is not going to resume uh while the war is going on. It's not going to resume for some time after the war. So, you're right, where it seemed back in late December and January as if the regime was facing yet another significant challenge from the streets, uh, that challenge has gone away. Uh, and then, of course, the regime is also using the war as an excuse to, uh, crack down on domestic critics. It continues to execute people on trumped up charges of, you know, espionage or or undermining the government, things like that. Uh, so they've used this to silence opposition. Now, what happens after the war? If we get to and after the war, and it's not clear when that's going to happen, but >> afterwards, uh, if there isn't a a sort of lasting deal with the US that offers real economic benefits to Iran, uh, this is a country that's in a very dire position economically. Inflation is running around 90%. Uh, the war has caused hundreds of billions of dollars perhaps in damage. One to two million people have lost their jobs since the start of the war. So, if there's not any prospect of fixing that afterwards, if there aren't major economic benefits for Iran in an agreement, could you in six months or a year sometime down the road see another round of protests fueled by economic grievances? I think that's certainly possible, but for the moment, we're we're a long way from that point.
>> How do you think the funeral procession of Kani sort of to your point, there's a little bit of a rally around the flag moment going on? Do you think that they'll be able to continue to use this momentum to build more support for the IRGC?
>> I think we should remember it's a country of about 90 million people. Um, and you had during this funeral, I mean, there were varying estimates, but let's say 10 to 12 million people across Iran uh, who came out for for various moments in this week-long funeral. That's not a huge share of the population. Right now, before the war, before this, I mean, the usual estimate was you had maybe 15 to 20% of the Iranian public that was uh diehard hardcore regime supporters. So 10 to 12 million people coming out for the funeral sort of tracks with that.
And not everyone who went to the funeral did it because they support the regime.
Some did it because uh they wanted to be part of this this national event. Some did it because they were angry that the United States assassinated their head of state. whatever they felt about that head of state, they were angry about it.
So, they had different motivations uh for coming out. So, there is definitely a a core of regime support that's still there, but I'm not sure we should read anything bigger into the funeral just given the the size of the crowds relative to the size of the population.
>> I think it's super important uh context.
So I'm glad you were able to add that because here, you know, it's being positioned as like, oh my gosh, every single person in Iran was so happy to go to this funeral and like that is also a form of propaganda. Um, switching off of Iran because I know that you spent a lot of time here and we're getting questions about it in the chat.
I have not seen Palestine or Gaza in the headlines since his war started, right?
Because now everything is Iran and Trump and Trump's sucking all the air out of the room and everywhere that he goes, whether it's World Cup or World Stage.
Do you have any information about how Gaza is fairing these days? Is there any sort of rebuilding? Has the has the like what is happening there right now?
>> Uh almost nothing. Uh >> it's um >> yeah, >> it is. So, you know, we had this ceasefire agreement back in October and and Trump made all of these promises about how reconstruction is going to start and the board of peace is going to put together a peacekeeping force and so on and so forth, right? Uh none of that has happened. Not a single peacekeeping troop has been deployed in Gaza. Uh there's really been almost no money allocated for reconstruction. Israel still occupies actually more of Gaza than they did when the deal was signed.
They had about half of it under their control back in October. Now it's probably 60 to 70%. Uh they continue to restrict the movement of goods into Gaza. Uh so anything you need for not just reconstruction but even things like tent poles if you want to put up a tent.
>> Uh metal tent poles are considered quote unquote dual use items that could have a military use. And so they are banned from entering Gaza. So in many ways when you speak to people there now I mean yes they're they're happy that the bombing has largely although not entirely stopped but uh humanitarian conditions are no better if not worse than they were uh during the war. And do you think that this is spreading up into Golden Heights, up into Lebanon? Is Israel, you know, as they continue forward on their so-called Greater Israel project, which I don't know why the mainstream media doesn't want to say it. They come out every day and say it's greater Israel we're trying to accomplish. Do you think that they're they have the resolve and the resources to continue to go into this? Like how successful could Israel be in essentially recolonizing this entire area and destroying it?
>> I don't think they have the resources first of all. I mean, the Israeli army is already stretched as it is with its occupation of the West Bank, with its occupation of part of Gaza and then also uh chunks of Lebanon and and Syria. It's under a tremendous amount of strain.
They're making reserveists do long tours of duty. So, do I think it's going to to go any further? Uh, no, I don't. But the question is, will it pull back from these places? Will it pull back from the area in Lebanon that it has occupied over the past few years? Uh we'll see the Lebanese president right about now uh should be going into the White House.
He's meeting with Donald Trump today.
Lebanon and Israel have signed a deal that in theory uh is meant to see the Lebanese army deploy in the south, attempt to displace from there and then once that happens, the Israelis are meant to withdraw. But there's a lot of, you know, in theory is meant to the details of it are quite vague. So I think they're going to try and and put a little more meat on that agreement today and and we'll see what happens there.
But certainly in Lebanon, I was just there for two weeks and and there's a lot of concern that Israel is not going to leave these areas in the south that it has occupied over the past few years.
>> Yeah, Eric um who is our co-host for the beginning part of the show spent some time in Lebanon and he had the similar analysis of like doesn't doesn't feel like they'll be keeping promises on the other side of this. Um but you know what's most important now, prevention of it spreading or you know pushing for pullback and I think that remains to be seen as being negotiated right now. We talk a lot on the show about how despite the horrors we have to remain defiant optimists. You have to believe that at someday things do get better. For the work that you do, which is incredibly difficult and very uplose in these areas, what keeps you defiantly optimistic, like why keep showing up every day?
>> I mean, the past few years, honestly, the past almost three years, it's been very hard to find something to be optimistic about. I mean, I'm I'm grasping at little things right now, like at some point, you know, economic reality will assert itself and Donald Trump will not want to get totally blown out in the midterms and he will stop this latest round of war to bring down oil prices. That's those are the the very slender reads that I'm grasping at now to look for something to be upbeat about.
>> When you're reporting from these spaces, what kind of optimism do you see from the people who have been under siege?
What makes them continue to believe that they'll be able to do better someday?
I mean, there's there's a lot of exhaustion. I'm not even sure that it's people at this point thinking that that things are going to get better. I mean, Lebanon, I lived there uh at the start of the financial crisis in 2019 when the port of Beirut exploded in 2020, >> and it's just felt like one thing after another since then. Financial collapse, war with Israel, uh most people have now been been pushed into poverty. And so, people are trying to survive. people are are just trying to to get by at this point. And talking about, you know, what might happen next year or in five years, that seems so abstract and and so far off given what what everyone has lived through in recent history.
>> Sometimes that's the answer though, right? Thinking five years off could be really difficult, but thinking of like what can you do in the next minute?
What's the next right thing to do can give you a little bit of optimism and a little bit of resolve and resilience to continue forward. I think sometimes folks need to hear that too. If you liked our chat with Greg today, he writes for The Economist and you can find his work there. Uh you can also find him on X. Where where else can people keep up with you, Greg, because you give very difficult information in a very soft and kind way that helps people process it without getting all spun up and that's a rarity. So I want people to find your work.
>> Thank you. It's mostly on X. I feel like I'm too much of an elder millennial to figure out [laughter] or any of these other things. So X is where I'm at. Yeah.
>> Okay, perfect. and then of course uh find his reporting in the economist as well. Thank you so much for being with us, Greg. We hope you'll come back again soon.
>> Thanks for having me, V.
>> Bye, Greg. Um so crazy show today. We had two really huge guests. Um and I hope that we all learned a lot. I hope that we also feel a little bit of centeredness. Um sometimes it it is hard to be like, "What's our fiveyear plan?
What's our two-year plan?" Sometimes it's just like, "What am I going to do right now?"
There are times in my life when I just decide that we're going to start over and I do it with a physical action that is kind of dumb, but I'm going to share it with you guys, which is just I'll shut off like all the lights in the room that I'm on and I'll pretend like I just came into the office again and turn the lights on again and it's open opening shop again. So, sometimes you could just do that at any point in your day that you need to trick your brain into a reset. You could go, "Okay, time to close up shop." You close up shop for like one or two minutes. You allow a little bit of time to pass and then you turn the lights back on and you go, "Okay, lights back on, shops open." And you can create a new day for yourself or a new moment for yourself as many times as you need to to get through the days.
And this is something I learned through like grief processing when I'd be like, I can only make it another five minutes in my grief or I can only make it another five minutes in my anxiety or my panic or my PTSD. I would make it those five minutes. We would close up shop and then we would reopen shop. And you will be shocked at how much it tricks your own brain into deciding that yes, it's a new day. It's a new moment. And everything that I was just carrying, I put down and now I can pick up only what I want to pick up. So, I hope that you'll take that with you um throughout the rest of the day. And I hope you have a great day. We'll be back tomorrow with Amanda's Mild Takes where we'll be talking about all the things that are going on in local and domestic policy.
Um but yeah, take little breaks, close up shop. We'll see you guys tomorrow.
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