US-Iran Conflict Escalates: Is the Middle East Headed for a 'Forever War'? | The Hard Facts

[00:00:01]So, it's 10 days in a row now that we've seen strikes take place in the Middle East. The US is attacking Iran. Iran is retaliating with the US allies in the Middle East. But, commercial shipping, the Strait of Hormuz now remains at the center of gravity of this war. What does that mean for the rest of the world?

[00:00:17]What does that mean for the war and how stretched out is this going to be? Let's try and put that in perspective.

[00:00:23]Professor Robert Pape now joins us.

[00:00:25]Thank you so much for speaking with us here on CNN-News18. In your recent analysis, sir, you've also mentioned about the Strait of Hormuz, about how this could become a forever war and the midterms and the challenge the United States and Donald Trump face.

[00:00:40]>> That's right. So, I published this piece on the escalation trap Substack. We are now in the spiral phase of the escalation trap. And you're describing it quite right. But, I just want to emphasize that this isn't just tit-for-tat, as some people are saying.

[00:01:00]What you are seeing is ever more moving up the rungs of escalation by both the United States and Iran, and also horizontally because we're also now seeing Iran has encouraged, basically told the Houthis to shut down Saudi oil coming out of the Red Sea. So, this is a geographic expansion as well just in the last few days. But, also it's a mission-driven issue. You see, what President Trump is trying to do is reverse the control of Iran over the Hormuz Strait. He has marshaled not just forces generally in the region, but forces in the Gulf of Oman. So, that is immediately to the east of Hormuz. He doesn't have the forces, the naval ships in the Gulf itself. So, they haven't passed through the most dangerous choke point of Hormuz. But, what that dovetails with is also the bombing pattern by the United States, which is to suppress especially the military targets that could stop any on-shoring of the Marines that are right there in the Gulf of Oman. So, what you see is America has positioned and is bombing in order to set the stage to immediately over days, not months, take pieces of Iranian territory. This is uh some of the most dangerous weeks we've had in the war, and it's not measured by numbers of sorties. This is we are now right on the door of ground operations.

[00:02:45]Uh doesn't mean we'll go through that door, but this is what is This is not just a return to war.

[00:02:52]>> So, what is the biggest or the most strategic obstacle you would say to reopening of Hormuz? I mean, is it even possible? And if yes, then how can one achieve that?

[00:03:02]>> The biggest obstacle is scale.

[00:03:06]Now, people are learning that Iran geographically is big, uh double the size of Iraq. They probably know that by now, and they now know where Hormuz is.

[00:03:16]What they may not know is the drone launch zone by Iran that could hit those forces I just described is bigger than California.

[00:03:32]Bigger than California.

[00:03:35]It is 500 mi by 500 mi, or another way to put it, 750 km by 750 km.

[00:03:46]That is an enormous area to try to find the last 20 of the thousands of drones and missiles that Iran has that are not much bigger than a pickup truck.

[00:04:00]>> Mhm.

[00:04:01]>> So, we're talking about an extremely difficult mission even for the best military in the world. Uh here but what President Trump may want to do is get a symbolic victory.

[00:04:14]>> Mhm.

[00:04:14]>> That is take a piece of territory, hold it for some time, and he might be able to hold it for weeks and weeks especially because this part of the coast of Iran is far away from Iran's main forces.

[00:04:29]They would still take incoming fire, but he might think that would give him a symbolic victory he could argue is the beginning of a future victory. These are the dynamics to expect in this position.

[00:04:43]Now, pulling back and stopping would be almost the end of Trump's presidency in a heartbeat. So, you're not just talking about, oh, he's going to taco out here.

[00:04:53]He might taco, that is Trump always chickens out, but keep in mind that basically means he will be likely abandoned by almost every Republican running for Congress in the midterms.

[00:05:06]And so, he would then become the lamest of lame ducks.

[00:05:09]>> But would he choose politics or strategy because it does look like it's going to be an either or sort of a situation for him? I mean, what would appear to be success for the war may not necessarily be successful in politically?

[00:05:20]>> I myself would be advocating strategy over politics, national interest over the interest. But what we saw in American history in the Vietnam war with Lyndon Johnson who was president of the United States.

[00:05:36]He didn't have all these liabilities of President Trump. He wasn't on trial for raping women, Lyndon Johnson.

[00:05:43]Nonetheless, Lyndon Johnson chose politics over strategy over and over in the Vietnam War, which is why that forever war went on for 10 years. So, this is as much as I would be strongly advocating for only strategy over politics, we got to understand presidents and prime ministers and leaders, they often think they are critical to the future. In their minds, they are not necessary and I've advised every White House from 2001 to 24.

[00:06:17]>> Yes.

[00:06:18]>> I don't think it's right to think they're being cynical. What they're thinking is they are the critical element to the future. That's what Lyndon Johnson thought. You pull Lyndon Johnson out and the whole Democratic Party and its agenda goes belly up, which is what happened when he did quit politics.

[00:06:39]>> So, speaking of what's happening in the Strait of Hormuz and in the Middle East, I mean, what Donald Trump will do, perhaps his closest advisers would not be able to guess given the kind of temperament that president has. But speaking of commercial shipping and speaking of India because it is hitting very close to home for India in terms of the human cost we're paying as well. I mean, the most recent attack we saw was near a Ukrainian port in the Dead Sea.

[00:07:05]So, the kind of escalation we're seeing in that entire region is problematic for India. So, how do we deal with that?

[00:07:12]>> an Indian and I'm sorry to interrupt, but also an Indian person lost their wife here just recently. So, this this is this is of all the places in the world outside of the Gulf itself, India is ground zero for much of this, much of the energy, much of the direct cost here in terms of human life. So, outside of the Gulf region itself, India is right on the front lines and that's why it's a very big honor for me to talk to the so many folks here in India because it really does matter to them.

[00:07:43]>> So, how does India deal with this? How does India navigate this? Because so far we've had this multi-aligned approach and that has worked in our favor. Is that the way to go forward? Is that what will help India reach to a conclusion that is amicable to everyone?

[00:07:58]>> Well, this could go on not just for days and days, but through January and maybe through 2027.

[00:08:06]>> Mhm.

[00:08:07]>> This is not a short-term war. I've been explaining on the escalation trap substack since 3 days before the first bomb fell how long this war was going to go on.

[00:08:17]>> Mhm.

[00:08:18]>> That was February 25th.

[00:08:20]Okay, so you know, think about that.

[00:08:23]>> Yeah.

[00:08:23]>> So, so this is the problem for your Prime Minister in India is this may go on for the next several years.

[00:08:31]This is unlikely to be over even if you get a pause. Think about these as pauses now.

[00:08:37]And so for India, they have to think more and more what does this mean for them to be independent of then the United States without cutting ties to anybody. So, this will be a little bit of distancing, but India's already been trying to navigate this. I think actually your Prime Minister has done as well as I could possibly imagine here and I've never met the man, of course, but I'm just pointing out that I'm not saying this here. I don't know anything about Indian politics. I'm just telling you in strategically, but the real challenge for India is this will go on.

[00:09:10]>> Mhm.

[00:09:11]>> This is not likely to be over and the oil This means economic issues are going to go on. This means the geopolitics is going to go on.

[00:09:19]Iran may develop nuclear weapons. India already has nuclear weapons. So, this is these are the issues in front of your Prime Minister and they are not just what to do tomorrow.

[00:09:32]>> So, will this then end up being a forever war? I mean, Donald Trump on his campaign trail after he took office, has promised that he wants to get away from these forever wars. But, it looks like that's exactly what he's dragging himself and the rest of the world into.

[00:09:46]>> We We will know for sure if it's a forever war after the midterms.

[00:09:51]So, that's 3 months away.

[00:09:53]>> Mhm.

[00:09:53]>> Notice, I'm not talking about days or hours. This is we're way past that.

[00:09:58]>> Mhm.

[00:09:59]>> So, uh by the midterms, then we'll know if the Democrats win Congress. If they do, they could stop, possibly, the forever war.

[00:10:09]>> Mhm.

[00:10:10]>> That is a real guardrail, for real.

[00:10:13]Other than that, all this talk about go back to the MOU and everything else, the None of this is sticky. None of this is strong. This is These are just things people are saying and doing because I mean, even the Qataris and the Pakistanis, they're just doing this and they're not I don't I'd be surprised if they thought this was actually stopping anything. But, the point is that what we need to understand is this has now become, if not quite a forever war yet, a a war that will go on for through the midterms. And that's 3 months from now.

[00:10:46]And think about what that means for the oil inventory rundown.

[00:10:49]>> Exactly.

[00:10:50]>> time horizon is pretty far enough. And this is what I'm doing on the escalation trap. I'm keeping I'm not just commenting. I'm talking about the future. I'm explaining how the dynamics matter. And I don't mean 5 years from now or 20 years from now. I mean, over periods of weeks or months. And that's what's important to stay ahead of the risk.

[00:11:11]>> And we do hope that these months of uncertainty that we and the world stares at, there is some respite sooner than later. Whether that is because of what happens politically for Donald Trump, but all we can do is hope. Professor Pape, >> the best, plan for the reality.

[00:11:28]>> Yes. Professor Pape, we'll leave it at that. Thank you so much for joining us here and sharing your perspective.

[00:11:33]>> Thank you for having me.