Are Burnham's 'good vibes' enough?

[00:00:08]Hello and welcome back to the World Leader Leaderboard, the podcast we tell you who's winning and losing in politics each week. This week I'm joined by Rory.

[00:00:15]>> Hello.

[00:00:15]>> And Zach.

[00:00:16]>> Hello.

[00:00:17]>> How are we doing?

[00:00:18]>> Yeah, very good.

[00:00:19]>> Good. It's a non uh World Cup special.

[00:00:22]The World Cup has concluded. Uh we missed last week due to various other shenanigans. You might have noticed our podcast Andemonium has launched. Great name.

[00:00:32]>> Um great name.

[00:00:34]>> Um so no episode last week, but yeah, since the last episode, we don't normally do football updates, but Argentina won.

[00:00:42]>> No, no, they didn't.

[00:00:42]>> No, [laughter] did they not? Spain won.

[00:00:45]Incredible. Incredible lack [laughter] of knowledge.

[00:00:49]How has that slipped you by?

[00:00:51]>> That's I mean that is appalling.

[00:00:53]They beat us though, didn't they?

[00:00:55]>> Let's just move on, please.

[00:00:56]>> This is how the board stands right now.

[00:00:58]Um, and throughout today's episode, we're going to be moving people up and down on the board based on their performance in the last week to create the latest version of our world leaderboard.

[00:01:08]Let's start though with our winners of the week.

[00:01:15]Okay, Rory, let's start with you. Who is your winner this week? So, in order to add my winner to the board, we're going to have to purge a familiar face.

[00:01:24]>> Oh, >> which is Sakir Starmer, >> who's been on the board for quite some time, >> since the debut of the board, right?

[00:01:30]>> I think so. Yeah.

[00:01:31]>> I think he predated World Leader.

[00:01:33]>> Um, but he is now out of office. He's in the pub. He's having a good time, I think.

[00:01:37]>> Yes. We should move him up for that. If anything, [laughter] I have never seen him look happier.

[00:01:42]>> Yeah. And Rachel Reeves, she looked thrilled as well.

[00:01:44]>> Yeah, she did. And to be fair, departing the board in the regularly negative section rather than with like a negative seven next to his name, >> it's actually it's a nice way to go, I think, for him.

[00:01:56]>> Um, so yeah, Star off the board and replaced by presumably your winner of the week.

[00:02:01]>> Yeah, my winner of the week, Andy Burnham, the new UK Prime Minister who uh stormed down to London and is now in number 10.

[00:02:09]>> It's good vibe.

[00:02:10]>> I get Thank you. Yeah.

[00:02:12]>> Uh it's the culmination of a very long long but quite quiet effort from him to become prime minister. I think >> it's like a human iceberg. It's just sort of slowly [laughter] heading towards >> I think I mean there's a lot we could say about it but a lot has already been said in ammonium obviously. Um but I do think it is remarkable that he has now got to this position without I think without ever publicly actually saying I want to get rid of Karma and become prime minister. He man >> Do we know he wants to be prime minister?

[00:02:40]>> I think he does. Are you sure he's not being bullied into this by someone?

[00:02:42]>> Um, I mean it was all his his people, his outr rididers and stuff who did all of that for him, but [laughter] I think it does go to show that he is really quite a savvy politician. Um, and yes, he's been in Manchester for the last decade possibly. And some people have taken that to mean, you know, he doesn't, you know, he doesn't really understand what happens in Westminster all that, but he is seasoned Westminster politician as well. He had a pretty high-profile career before being mayor of Greater Manchester. So, he knows how it works and he has been very effective in becoming prime minister. He's unambiguously a winner >> because he hasn't had enough time [laughter] to to do anything wrong. Um he's named his cabinet which I think signals that there's not going to be a massive change. M >> um he has brought back some of the soft left figures who left or were kicked out on Starama, Angela Raina, uh Lucy Powell, various others. Um but he has kept in like Shabbana Mammud as home secretary. He's made John Healey chancellor who's not going to do anything unorthodox other than give more money to the Department of Ministry of Defense. Um yeah, I think I think there was this idea that he could come and do this be a quite radically different prime minister and I think he will be in terms of style and communication which he is much more effective at than Karmama >> but I think it won't be such a dramatic change in terms of policy. There'll obviously be he's going big on devolution. We've had you know the announcement about uh getting taking VAT off energy bills two pound bus cap.

[00:04:17]These are obviously know his opening his opening moves, but fundamentally I don't think there's going to be a massive policy change and that reflects the fact that he is effectively uh bound to the Labour manifesto from 2024. Um, I don't want to make any predictions, but I do think that he as a better communicator that will buy him a good amount of time and already I think he's benefiting from >> various things. You know, reform deciding in the polls because of Nigel Farage's own personal problems.

[00:04:50]>> So, he benefits from that. The Greens have sort of stagnated because, you know, Zack Plansky's lost the media attention. He's lost momentum because of Andy Bernham, arguably. So I think >> he's also had a couple of scand like scandals is too strong.

[00:05:03]>> Yeah. So I think broadly speaking he will have a bit of a honeymoon period but longer term >> remains to be seen.

[00:05:11]>> Okay. Well he's being added the board in the likely positive section because that is where people get placed. Um but we will see. I think off to an okay start.

[00:05:20]Zach. I'm curious what you make obviously um of the start of the start [snorts] um since uh Andemonium was recorded on Monday which I'm sure some people have already watched [snorts] um the cabinet has been announced um Rory's got his take on it. Do you agree? What do you make of the cabinet selection?

[00:05:38]>> I basically completely concur with very very boring this real lack of fire unlikemonium.

[00:05:44]>> Um but I basically think that Royy's right that he's a better politician. I think it's also notable that most of his big policy focuses so far don't much don't actually have much fiscal impact, right? So like rough sleeping for instance, you can't cost ending rough sleeping. You know, devolution is another one, right? That's not something that's going to cost money. It's just like a oh power to the people sort of vibe.

[00:06:04]>> Um and you know, having wearing a t-shirt and not having lectern again doesn't cost anything. It's just like a vibes based thing.

[00:06:11]>> Um I think it's also notable that he's shied away from the actually more expensive polities. Right. There was a this is maybe a bit boring for people but there was a rumor that he was going to basically uh bring down the lowest rate of tax rate um or lift it up price at the moment it's 12 a half grand or a bit more than that he was going to raise it a little bit to basically that's functionally a tax cut for uh lower earners basically that's the best way of looking at it um and that would have been very expensive that probably would have been in the sort of like low tens of billions and he has moved away from that already >> um so I basically think vibes wise he's a pretty savvy politician and as we said like a lot depends on structural things that he can't really control. I made this point before, but I do think there is cause for optimism, right? I think that basically before the war on Iran, the UK economy was showing some really strong green shoots, right? So like >> uh the GDP GDP figures were coming in surprisingly strong. Um inflation just announced this morning actually came has come in surprisingly low or go up now because right this month is being affected by the war in Iran again. Yeah.

[00:07:10]>> Um but mo I think most importantly investment was ticking up right we've talked about this on the channel a number of times. investment has basically been stagnant since since Brexit really since 2016. And in the past year or so, both public and private sector investment um have finally started ticking up. So, you know, I think hopefully he can sort of ride those structural forces, right? I think you got to tick two boxes. You got to have good circumstances surrounding you and you've got to be a savvy politician.

[00:07:32]Um and I think he's definitely ticking the latter box, but you know, he can't really control the first thing.

[00:07:37]>> Is there any chance he'll call an early general election?

[00:07:41]>> No, it's not.

[00:07:42]just there's no >> reason to I mean people content >> people make the Mark Carney comparison um and I think there are valid uh reasons to do that but the the key difference between him and Mark Carney is that Mark Carney became prime minister with a minority and had every incentive to call an election when he was riding high in the polls. There's no poll that we could no polling level that Labour could plausibly reach in the next few years that would make it so that a result of an election would give him more seats than he has now. I think so.

[00:08:15]I just I just don't >> unless Trump tries to annex the UK, in which case [laughter] he might have the the space.

[00:08:21]>> It is funny that this happens every time though. I feel like every time there's a prime minister that comes in >> that isn't by an election, no matter which party it is, every other party is like >> they have a mandate. the people didn't vote for the boring people have to then say that's not how you didn't vote for the prime minister.

[00:08:38]>> I do like that this time the tourists aren't really pushing for it norally.

[00:08:42]But yeah, >> it just reflects where you are on the polls.

[00:08:44]>> Yeah, exactly.

[00:08:45]>> That's why Farage is the only one even mentioning it, right?

[00:08:47]>> Yeah, exactly.

[00:08:48]>> And even him, as you say, is like >> I think he's quieting down already.

[00:08:51]>> Yeah, he's busy fighting off Bimface.

[00:08:55]>> He's he's having he's got his summer locked down. He doesn't have time for a general election.

[00:08:59]>> [snorts] >> Um, okay. So, Andy Burnham added the lightly positive section. Let's see how long we can keep a prime minister of the UK in the top half of the board.

[00:09:07]>> Be nice.

[00:09:08]>> Will it last weeks, months? We will see.

[00:09:11]>> If George is on the podcast, it'll be years. [laughter] [gasps] >> Uh, before we move on, we obviously just mentioned Andyonium, which is our UK politics podcast. Uh, it is back or it is coming back. Um, the first episode came out on YouTube on Tuesday. Um, so if you haven't seen it already, you can take a look. It's Ben and Georgina discussing uh their thoughts on uh the kind of first moments of uh Andy Burnham's uh premiership. I was about to say rain. Weirdly, it does feel rain, >> King of the North and all that.

[00:09:44]>> Yeah, exactly. Yeah, he's got kind of Monarch vibes sometimes. [laughter] Um, >> but the first episode came out on YouTube on Tuesday. That being said, every subsequent episode will not be released on YouTube. It's only the first episode coming out on YouTube. So if you want to keep watching Andymonium, uh it will be available on TLDDR Party, which is our special uh members service. You can become a party member. And by doing so, you'll be able to watch every episode of Andemonium, which will be coming out twice weekly as of mid August. Not twice weekly, fortnightly.

[00:10:17]Twice weekly is just so wrong.

[00:10:19]>> Crazy.

[00:10:20]>> Bi-weekly is also confusing, but twice weekly is just inaccurate.

[00:10:23]>> [snorts] >> It'll be coming out fortnightly. Uh, so sign up to TDR Party if you want to watch that. Obviously, signing up to TDR Party will also get you access to the last move, the bonus section of this podcast. So, if you're watching this, which you are, turns out, um, you will want to get a bit more Last Move from us. It also includes things like our big swing documentaries like our trip to Greenland, which we're talking about a lot at the moment. So, if you want to check out all the stuff we've got to offer, if you're the big TLDDR fan and you want to become a TLDDR party member, now is the time because Andemonium is being added to the growing pool of benefits. And it's only £4 a month. So, it's not even like it's that expensive.

[00:11:02]I mean, how much you watching Netflix and you're paying like 20 for that now?

[00:11:05]You didn't notice, but you are. They keep knocking the price up. We won't £4 a month. Sign up now. [snorts] Zach, >> hello.

[00:11:13]>> Jump over to you hard. [laughter] Who is your winner this week?

[00:11:16]>> My winner of the week, and we're a little bit late to this, but it's going to be Iraq's Prime Minister Ali al- Zedi. Um, he was on the last move a couple of weeks ago, maybe last week.

[00:11:26]Was it last week?

[00:11:29]>> Talking about him made me realize how much I want to talk about Iraq and Iraqi politics.

[00:11:32]>> You got a little taste of it and you're like, >> Yeah. Well, I've been sort of tracking it a bit for since the election.

[00:11:37]Basically, there's election earlier this year and I thought we could do a classic election explain video. We can't. Iraqi politics is insanely complicated. I mean, it is maybe the most complicated domestic politics imaginable. You know, we do those little like graphs of the parliament with like different colored dots for different parties. I mean, it would just be we there's not enough colors. There's so many parties in Iraq.

[00:11:55]Um, and in part because Iraq's politics is just so contested and so complicated.

[00:12:01]The election earlier this year was it was basically inconclusive. No party or coalition um won an outright majority and there was a lot of jockeying as to who was going to be the next prime minister.

[00:12:10]The previous prime minister is controversial within Iraq. is called Al Sudani. Um, and his sort of opposite number is a guy called Maliki who is who's basically considered by the US to be too close to Iran. And he was essentially vetoed by the Americans.

[00:12:21]They threatened to reimpose sanctions if Maliki was turned out to be the prime minister. And so sort of out of nowhere, they picked a sort of compromised candidate. You know, sometimes like, you know, when you can't like the Dutch election, they can't decide on one candidate. He's actually a politician.

[00:12:34]So, you just pick someone who's sort of like sufficiently apolitical that they can just get through. And they pick this guy who is a Alidi who's basically a businessman. you know, he doesn't really have much of a history in politics and he was basically dumped into one of the hardest jobs in the world, right?

[00:12:47]Because not only is Iraq's domestic politics incredibly fractured, Iran is obviously playing and it always is, is playing this balancing act between the US, which still sort of has started a military presence in Iraq, but also still exercises some sort of control over its politics, and Iran, right, which >> obviously there was a sort of I mean there was a war, but there was a natural affinity between those two countries.

[00:13:07]Um, and since especially the US invasion, Iran has operated a sort of network of proxy militias, but then also like proxy proxy political groups inside Iraq. Their power has waned, >> let's say, in the past like 5 years a bit because mainly because like the Iraqi public has had enough of what they see as Iranian interference. Yeah.

[00:13:24]>> In their politics, but they still exert serious sway, right? So, he has this incredibly difficult balancing act, right, between the Americans and the Iranians. And that has obviously got even harder because there is a war. and he's actually just done an amazing job of it, right? And I think the the best evidence we have of him doing an amazing job of it is >> the visit he paid to the White House last week. Um, and you know, he was he was accept he went to bit see Trump in the Oval Office and they had a press conference and all that. Um, and and Trump basically just showered him with praise. I mean, in that sort of you know, he sort of reserves this register for relatively young Middle Eastern leaders, but Trump's now describing him as very handsome, you know, all that sort of thing. Um, and there is also this this really natural overlap, right?

[00:14:05]Because like successive Iraqi politicians and especially ones who don't want to offend Iran have basically the the line they take with the US is we want fewer US troops but we want more American business.

[00:14:16]>> Sure.

[00:14:17]>> And that actually just suits Trump really well. I mean in practice his reveal preferences are quite different but but you know he is at least nominally all about getting American troops out of the Middle East and you know turning it into some sort of like um win-win economic cooperation thing right >> um and that's exactly what Alady offered and that's exactly what Trump took up you know he said we're going to invest I know some silly sum yeah >> billions of dollars in in Iraq or something like that >> um and at the same time he's actually been able to maintain relatively good relations with Iran and he's actually started explicitly offering himself as a potential mediator for future rounds of negotiations, right? Because obviously the Pakistanis having a difficult time of it at the moment.

[00:14:54]>> Um the Americans have said no so far, but like there aren't many other people who could mediate. Um and I think my basic point here is that like I think it was always sort of a given that he would be on relatively good terms or function like he'd have a functional relationship with Iran. The more open question was about his relationship with America. And my [snorts] point here is that actually so far he's it looks like he's got a great relationship with this current administration. And that just means he's performing that very difficult balancing act very very well.

[00:15:22]>> Sounds like you're doing a great job paying attention.

[00:15:24]>> Pretty incredible job. I mean, yeah, it's there's a there's a lot there's a I mean there's a lot of >> layers to it, right? Yeah. But like broad strokes, he's doing a great job.

[00:15:33]>> Everything he's doing isn't perfect.

[00:15:34]When I say he's doing a great job, I immediately thought >> I don't know actually what his politics are, [laughter] but >> by his own terms in a very difficult role, he sounds like he's stepped in to a difficult position there.

[00:15:45]>> Yeah. Yeah. He's got a one sort of wrinkle in all this is he's got quite a difficult deadline coming up in September. So obviously >> the Americans still maintain a limited milit presence in Iraq. He's signed an agreement. I think actually it was first signed by by Al Sudan who was his predecessor but he's continuing this agreement that basically says the Americans have to withdraw all their troops and the deadline is late September. And that actually coincides quite directly with another deadline he's set, which is to fold essentially all of the militias, all of the sort of informal militaries into Iraq's formal military. And he said, "Okay, you guys have until >> basically midepptember, late September."

[00:16:21]>> Um, and so that really is the contra point for him, right? That's when the Americans are supposed to leave and the sort of Iran adjacent militia supposed to fold themselves into the Iraqi state.

[00:16:30]Yeah, it's quite scary. Although another, you know, impressively from his perspective, actually, a number of the big militians have already said we will do it, which was a bit of a surprise.

[00:16:39]>> Um, so yeah, >> for the moment though, we'll move him up. We're moving him from the lightly positive section to the positive section. Uh, clearing some space in what is an incredibly crowded row. Maybe we have space to actually slide Burnham up into there properly. Um, but he is our second winner of the week, and it's probably time to move on to the audience's suggestion.

[00:17:02]Okay. Every week we let the audience choose one person who we discuss in each episode. Uh and then we decide whether that person is a winner or a loser. Um this time round it is Diaz Canel of Cuba. Uh who is currently right at the bottom of the board. A negative two next to his name. Uh who wants to go first?

[00:17:22]Is he a winner or a loser this week?

[00:17:24]>> Can I jump in?

[00:17:25]>> Yeah, go for it.

[00:17:26]>> This might be a rogue suggestion, but I think he could be a winner this week.

[00:17:29]Um, the first thing I would say, which it's going to sound like it's not making my point, but I'll it all comes together, don't worry. Um, the US, the Trump administration just released something like a 100page report, um, detailing how, in their words, Cuba is I wrote it down, I can't remember the exact phrasing, but it's very Trumpian.

[00:17:49]Uh, >> I think they said waging a war against America.

[00:17:52]>> They said it's a unique threat to US homeland security and >> all that type of thing. And uh yeah, that's basically just the latest part of the Trump administration's pressure campaign to try and bring down the Cuban government. Um and they they listed all these things including uh I think they even said like Black Lives Matter protests, the sort of pro Palestine protests, those types of things are all secretly, you know, fueled by >> blob politics. Yeah, it's not. Yeah, it does feel like something out of the Cold War where, you know, you blame Cuba for all these things. But anyway, the point is this is just the latest in Trump administration's uh pressure campaign.

[00:18:34]>> However, I do think the reason why he's a winner is that fundamentally, I don't think the US will do any kind of military action while it's preoccupied in Iran.

[00:18:44]>> And that for now seems to be where they're stuck. So I think he does he he has effectively bought well he hasn't bought himself some time but time's been bought for him. Yeah.

[00:18:54]>> Um still means still doesn't mean it's a good situation in Cuba. They're still effectively under US blockade.

[00:19:01]Conditions are really bad and there is this political and sort of diplomatic pressure. But the I think I feel confident in saying the imminent threat of military action is lower than it was.

[00:19:11]Although I am worried saying that because tomorrow it could happen.

[00:19:14][laughter] >> Yeah. Um, but that yeah, I think it is perhaps the only week for quite some time where you could move him up. Um, yeah. So, I don't know if Zach agrees or disagrees.

[00:19:26]>> So, we could move him up this week.

[00:19:28]>> I was going to move him down, but I was going to I think you can cut it both ways. I was going to move him down because I think that that long document that Roy just mentioned, it's hard to see that as anything else than essentially a pretext, right? That that does signal that they are planning an invasion. Um, I also think that it's true that Iran means that the administration is distracted at the moment, but I think given how badly it's going, they will also want to Venezuela star win afterwards, right? Like you want to you lose one war, you want to win one afterwards pretty quickly before probably midterms. She can't believe I'm saying that out loud, but I think that is how American politics works at the moment.

[00:20:01]>> Um, and yeah, so I think you can make Roy I think Roy has a case, right, that like maybe in the immediate future, and I guess this podcast is weekly, right?

[00:20:09]So he he could be moved up. The one other thing I think reason you could move is I think that basically that document that you mentioned was sort of so hyperbolic it became farical right like I think they sort of overextended you know Marco Rubio blaming this tiny impoverished island of like what a couple of million people >> something like that you know for indoctrinating young Americans and all that sort of shenanigans it's just it's just silly isn't it um >> and yeah so so I think let's go with I think you can move it up because it is weekly thing >> yeah Yeah.

[00:20:41]>> 10 million people though.

[00:20:42]>> 10 million people.

[00:20:43]>> There's a lot of them there.

[00:20:44]>> Yeah. Not compared to America. You know, the idea that Cuba is like a genuine national security all working on it.

[00:20:50]Every single person in Cuba is working on protests in the US. Yeah. Exactly. Um well, so what's your conclusion?

[00:20:59]>> I take point. I think if we're doing it by the last couple of weeks, right, the fact that Trump's got dragged back into Iran means that Cuba is probably safe for a bit longer.

[00:21:05]>> Yeah.

[00:21:05]>> But I do also think that the fact that document was published implies that future it looks more and more inevitable.

[00:21:12]>> Do we know if the commenter was implying a direction they expected?

[00:21:16]>> I don't know actually. No >> no we don't think so. So I'm I'm interested whether people are shocked by that whether the person who suggested it was expecting.

[00:21:23]>> I think we've given enough caveats that >> at some point it's going to be um okay well DS canal moving up on the board losing the negative two and shifting into the regularly negative section. I think regularly negative is still about right. Like it's an okay week, but like net is still not great. Um, let's stick with the theme of things not going great and move on to our losers of the week.

[00:21:52]>> Rory, you're up first. Who is your loser of the week?

[00:21:55]>> Uh, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is my loser of the week. And >> it's uh, yeah, it's been a pretty dramatic week in Indian politics. He having, you know, previously looked pretty secure, um, he's now facing, I think it's fair to say, one of the most like visible displays of public discontent, uh, against his government for for basically his recent premiership.

[00:22:21]>> Um, and that's a youthled movement called the uh CJP, which is a play on his BJP party. It's called the Cockroach Janata Party. And this is spawned by some comments made by the I think chief justice of the Supreme Court who basically likened [clears throat] young Indians who I think in their words they said sort of drift into activism and journalism as cockroaches and parasites.

[00:22:47]And this obviously went went down very poorly and they tried to justify and explain themselves and backtrack a bit.

[00:22:53]But you know far too late for that.

[00:22:55]>> And quite quickly this uh you know this this cockroach identity got assumed by uh lots of young people who were you know angry at the comments and uh someone formed this um satirical party effectively not a real political party but satirical movement called the CJP which has got something like 25 million followers on Instagram. Wow.

[00:23:17]>> Um it spread really rapidly online and it has also now translated into protests on the street. Um the main thing that they're actually you know obviously they're upset about the comment but the main thing they're demanding is the resignation of the education minister because uh they're frustrated at the sort of systemic dysfunction surrounding um entrance exams which for a lot of Indians very high stakes um but also they have repeated like leaks of papers rescheduling cancellations that affect millions and millions of young people.

[00:23:50]Um so they want his resignation and also to just fix that system. Um there was something like 50,000 people on the streets of New Delhi as part of this protest on uh Monday I think and it invited a pretty tough police response.

[00:24:06]You know they were kettling them tear gas batters all of that >> and uh you know the next day despite that thousands of people showed up again and they're vowing to continue protesting. And I think there is a risk and we're probably at this point now that it just turns into a generally anti-modi protest movement. Yeah.

[00:24:24]>> And you know as we've seen in lots of countries in Asia these Gen Z protests often start with one specific um trigger but morph into anti wider anti-government protests uh which is really the thing that makes it dangerous for governments. I don't necessarily think that Modi is going to go the way of um you know the Bangladeshi prime minister or the Nepalese prime minister.

[00:24:44]Um but it is still a huge display of this undercurrent of of dissatisfaction and you know it is about the exams it is about the cockroach comments but also it's about just lack of economic opportunity corruption just general frustration among young people and there are you know lots of young people in India.

[00:25:05]>> Um so I think >> for Modi it is a really bad week. He has been generally quite silent so far. he has come out and said, "Yeah, we need to fix this exam system." Obviously, everyone agrees with that. But saying that after a few days of silence after the movement has turned into a more anti-government thing, isn't going to satisfy things. Um, also, it's bad for him because the Congress party, which is the main opposition in India, >> has jumped into the movement and they sent some of their representatives including their leader Rahul Gandhi, who ended up getting arrested at one of these protests. So it has gone from being this grass well it still still is a grassroots mass movement but there you're starting to see some like actual political establishment or opposition establishment figures get involved which could give it >> uh even more publicity um and perhaps the sort of political infrastructure that it needs to go further. But yeah I think very bad week for Modi. Modi moving down then uh sounds like for very good reason uh from the lightly positive section to the neutral section again clearing more space on that road. Thank you Rory.

[00:26:13]>> You're welcome.

[00:26:13]>> You obviously mentioned there the opposition party getting involved and I think that's obviously an issue a lot of the time with Indian politics that Modi's government is >> kind of so dominant that the opposition parties never seem to have much >> much ability to kind of push back. Do you think that's shifting at all or is this just kind of an isolated incident where they've been able to jump on this?

[00:26:34]>> I I think they're not I don't think it fundamentally changes the balance of political power, but so so it is sort of that opposition party jumping in and getting involved. They're not leading this movement. They're >> they recognize that >> they are sort of to the side of it. Um, but I suppose the question is whether this CJP, you know, it's not a real party. Do they want it to become a real political party? Do they want to participate in politics like that or do they just want to be on the streets and achieve those specific aims?

[00:27:07]>> Yeah.

[00:27:08]>> Um, I think that's that remains to be seen.

[00:27:11]Uh, there are, you know, it is pretty decentralized and grassroots, but there are, you know, a few people who are prominent in the movement. I think the guy who made the first Instagram page, you know, is an obvious leader, if you can call call it that.

[00:27:28]>> But, you know, we saw him in Bangladesh when they had their revolution a couple of years ago. That was that was studentled protest as well. Very quite similar frustrations in a way.

[00:27:38]>> Um, they've struggled to turn that into political power.

[00:27:42]>> So, >> Serbia as well.

[00:27:44]>> Yeah. So does that will these Indian student protesters look at that and think oh maybe we should reconsider how we engage in it or do we do we want to do that and just try and succeed.

[00:27:55]>> Uh yeah I don't don't know we'll have to wait and see I suppose.

[00:27:59]>> Zach are you worried for Modi? I mean no I think you know Modi I think as well as the fact that he is still by all polls really quite popular and also I mean he just has an incredible democratic record right we talked about this but you know >> Indian I mean that's proper sort of like it's a it's a tough place to win an election you know it's a very complicated politics and massive franchise obviously >> um the one other thing I would say though is that and I don't know how much this plays into this but in India is in the midst of like not a economic crisis is too strong but like some it's got some real economic troubles at the moment. Um most of this to do with inflation. Uh you know India is a big fuel importer. It imports a lot of it from the Middle East right. So it has been very directly affected by the war on and will by the way be very directly affected by the closure of the Babal Mandab which is that sort of like straight in between is it Jiboutin Yemen? Yeah it is. Um that basically the Saudis and a couple other countries were exporting actually Russia as well.

[00:28:56]Right. So obviously India still imports some Russian oil. they were exporting via that um through to India and parts of South Asia. um that's pushed up inflation but it's also like and that's part of the story here but there also sort of more general worries about India's growth rate but this is all exacerbated the sell off in the rupee right which is I'm pretty sure I think I'm right in saying it's trading currently an all-time low against the dollar and has been sort of ticking down quite steadily for the past couple of years and obviously that's sort of reflects broader anxieties about the direction of travel of the Indian economy but it also then in turn exacerbates his inflation problem right because of your your currency is weaker your imports more expensive especially when the sort of main driver of headline inflation at the moment is fuel imports.

[00:29:37]You know, that feeds quite directly into into that problem.

[00:29:40]>> Yeah.

[00:29:41]>> Um but I don't know enough about the protests to say anything anything solid about what happens next.

[00:29:47]>> Sure.

[00:29:47]>> Well, luckily you're already did.

[00:29:49]>> Yeah. If you want confident takes, this is the wrong podcast. [laughter] >> Uh Zach, let's jump over to you then. Uh for your final movement, your loser of the week. My final loser of the week is going to be Russian President Vladimir Putin.

[00:30:05]>> I think it's I mean the main reason is something that we are going to cover over on the main channel. I think the video will probably come out the same time that this comes out um which is that Russia has recently announced it is suspending all bond auctions. And before everyone's eyes glaze over and that sounds really boring. That's actually it's not actually that complicated and actually really interesting. Basically Russia cannot find any buyers for its new bonds. Right? So governments are always rolling over their debt. They're always issuing new debt to cover debt that's just matured. You know, that's how you know, it's like if you borrow loads of money and you, you know, then you got to pay someone back. The way you unless you got a massive cash reserve, the way you do it is you borrow more money someone else and you pay that back. You roll it over. That's what states do.

[00:30:42]>> I mean, you say you do. That sounds like dreadful financial advice. [laughter] >> Okay, fine. Most individuals do not, but big corporations and states obviously, right? That's what states do. Um, and basically in the past, Russia used to do on a weekly basis, right? It's always issuing little bits of new debt. So some countries do it on like an annual basis, right? You you do big chunk of debt every year. Well, not every no one does it annually, but like the intervals are different. And it used to do this weekly. And for the past four weeks, basically the Kremlin has found nearly zero buyers for its new debt, right? Uh there was one auction on July 24th or June 24th, they found zero buyers. The next one a week later, they found like buyers for 10% of their new debt. The one a week later, you know, zero buyers.

[00:31:24]And then the one week later, which is one that happened earlier this week, zero buyers again, right? So they've just gone, "Whoa, guys, we have we're just going to cancel them. We we we can't actually find any buyers." You know, it's hard to sort of like put that in context. Like that is that is so that's it's unprecedented for like a modern economy with developed capital market. Like >> the UK, right, we always think about the UK as being we've got these debt problems and you know, we're minutes away from a fiscal crisis and Andy Burn can't do anything. We have like relatively high bonds like we have to issue quite high like have to offer quite high interest rates on our new debt. That does not mean we struggle to actually find buyers, right? When the when the UK Treasury sells new debt, it is normally overs subscribed by multiples, right? There are normally many times more buyers than there are bonds available. The fact that >> the Kremlin can find has literally zero buyers or at best 10%, you know, buy buying 10% of the bonds on offer, >> that's really really bad. Um, you know, and I all you know usual caveats apply you know that these sort of things probably won't change Putin's strategic calculus and maybe he'll find a way out of it but I do think this is a more acute sort of economic crisis than anything that the Kremlin has seen so far right you like high inflation that's annoying for ordinary Russia it's not going to really affect how Putin deals with things you know like slightly weak growth same logic applies high bond yields sure but you know you can normally find your way out of that you raise taxes somewhere on whatever if literally no one's buying your debt that's a different sort of situation right then you really do run up against quite a [snorts] hard limit there on on how much you can finance stuff. Um, so that's my main reason why he's going down. I think that might be offset by the fact there is obviously some sort of political turmoil in Ukraine. Um, but I think it's also worth noting that the way that that political turmoil seems to be resolving is in favor of what you might call the new guard, right? the the political turmoil in in Ukraine is basically a sort of like it's a battle between the old guard sort of military posts Soviet military commanders and this new guard of of military commanders in Ukraine who are sort of more techsavvy um and who have been responsible for lots of the drone advances and and how that's changed the balance of power on the battlefield and basically it looks like that battle has been resolved in favor of the new guard has been pushed into firing cerski who is the sort of main well he's a sort of commander of the Ukrainian army but he is from the old guard he's 65 five or something like that. Um, and will probably reappoint his former defense minister, Federov, who's in his 40s and is sort of widely credited with all those advancements not just in drone technology, but also like the deployment of that technology on the battlefield.

[00:33:47]>> Um, and I think that actually probably is bad for Putin in the long run because it looks like or recent evidence suggests that actually that new guard are just better at fighting wars, right?

[00:33:55]So >> my main reason is the bond stuff which is actually pretty acute. Um, but I think also you can you can see the the not the political turmoil itself, but the way that it's resolved, the way that in Ukraine as actually ending up sort of well hurting Russia in the long term.

[00:34:12]Does that make sense?

[00:34:13]>> Yeah. So Putin then moving down from the lightly positive to the neutral section.

[00:34:19]Another shift freeing up some space in that road. Thank goodness.

[00:34:23]>> We definitely didn't reverse engineer that. [laughter] >> Um, tell us more about what's actually causing all of this. Obviously, this sounds like a pretty major concern, but like it's not like the wars just started. It's not like this is a new thing and people are boycotting Russia from like a moral perspective as you might have expected a number of years ago. What's causing this right now?

[00:34:44]>> See, most commentary has focused on sort of like two things. I mean, one, the fact that Russia keeps on running a way bigger budget deficit than forecast, right? So >> I can't remember exactly what the stats are but it's something like you know Russia basically ran through its entire forecast deficit for this year in the first 3 months right so it's borrowing at four times the rate it expected to that reflects the fact that revenues are coming in weak because GDP growth is weak and because the oil industry is a mess thanks to Ukrainian strikes but also because obviously the war is proving more expensive and actually repairing Russian infrastructure after Ukrainian strikes is also proving more expensive right >> and then other people pointed to this thing about um about the fact Inflation is ticking back up again by the way as a consequence of Ukrainian strikes because that's pushed up petrol prices and that means that the Russian central bank might raise interest rates and that means that people who would otherwise invest cash in Russian government bonds which are like they're supposed to be safe right government bonds are just seen as a safe asset right >> are instead holding back and thinking maybe I'll just store it in a a savings account basically take advantage of the interest rate and the fact that it's zero risk >> I think that's obviously all true but like I think there must be something more mechanical going on here right because like that might all be true but you'd expect to push up bond yields you basically mean that Russia would have to offer more a higher interest rate. You know, that's what when we raise interest rates in the UK, the exact same thing happens almost mechanically, right? Bank of England raises interest rates and government bond yields go up because the government has to offer an interest rate to compete with the the higher savings rate.

[00:36:09]>> So, I think there must be some for actually to find like zero buyers, something deeper must be going wrong.

[00:36:14]And I my my this is a very sort of like this is not an expert read of the Russian economy. another confidence.

[00:36:22][laughter] >> But I I imagine it has something to do with Russian Russia's banks basically because like in the UK and the US when when the government issues new debt, you can buy, you know, if you're just a sort of like boxand investor, there are ways to like get your hands on new debt as quickly as possible, but they also have this sort of like reserve of big financial institutions who like soak up the debt. They're sort of there as your to guarantee that you do find buyers.

[00:36:45]And you would imagine that Russ Russia has a similar again this is why I'm not confident take because I don't know for sure but you would imagine that Russia has a similar setup right even if not nonofficial you'd imagine the Kremlin be able to sort of bully big banks into buying up debt you know um it's been able to bully banks for instance into lending at sort of like cheaper cheaper than market rates to big defense companies and industrial companies. So why can't it bully banks into buying up more government debt? And I think that the only answer you can really see to this is that that something must be going very very deeply wrong with the Russian bank system. There is data on withdrawals. There is data suggesting that um basically uh like deposits are flowing out of Russian banks. You know, ordinary Russians are basically taking their money out of Russian banks at a record rate. That might be playing into it. But again, like I don't know if that feels like a sufficient explanation. You you'd still expect them to be able to absorb some debt. So I think that there must be something going really quite fundamentally wrong with Russia's banks, right? because that's who you would expect to step in essentially as buyers and buyers or and who in most sort of advanced economies that's what happens, right?

[00:37:45]>> Yeah.

[00:37:46]>> Um and so yeah, I think there must be something going wrong there. I mean, maybe it's they've got a a sort of higher it could be a combination of like people withdrawing their cash and default rates rising, right? It could be that a lot of the loans that Russian banks have have lent out recently are going bad. That might be because they've been pressured into, you know, lending them to defense related companies that aren't actually creditw worthy. It might be because Russian GDP growth is slow.

[00:38:08]So even nominally creditworthy businesses are now going under. Um but that's I think that's probably the most plausible read of it, right? Something must be going very deeply wrong with Russian's banks because otherwise they would be stepping in.

[00:38:18]>> Yeah. It's [snorts] interesting that for a while now we've obviously spoken about the various ways in which Russia is struggling. Basically since the beginning of the war there's been various things you could point to whether it's like >> people not buying as much oil from them, whether it's and more recently the strikes against Russia. And pretty much the outcome always is of that conversation, this isn't great, but like Putin's kind of immune from all these things. Like it would take a lot to actually make anything happen because ordinary Russians aren't going to vote him out. He's not he's not susceptible to the same like democratic whims as Kstama was.

[00:38:52]>> Um but it's interesting as these things stack up and as more and more of them look to be ultimately downstream of the fact that the war isn't going anywhere near as planned. I mean, even [snorts] if you ignore the fact that he thought like it would be over in days, even if you go for a more pessimistic view, this is still bad.

[00:39:08]>> Yeah.

[00:39:08]>> And it is interesting if at some point there is a tipping point and maybe it's not like none of these things alone, but it'll be interesting looking back from a historical perspective in 10 years time or whatever whether there will have been a moment where you say, okay, too many of things these things have stacked up now and that is where something changed.

[00:39:28]whether it's Putin going whether it's a change in strategy whatever it is but this does sound like yet another really negative point for him. Yeah, I think I think say two things. I think that speaks to a general truth, right, about like economic crisis is that you never actually you can never call the peak.

[00:39:43]You know, it's the same thing. We used to have a similar discourse or mirrored in the way we talk about the AI bubble, right? People who think the AI is a bubble. One of the problems is that you never know when the peak's going to hit, right? So, you're always playing this game of trying to like make sure you don't lose out, you know, dance while the music's playing sort of thing. And I think something similar is true here, right? There are lots of headwinds against the Russian economy and Russia's public finances, but you never know what's going to break. And it might be that this is breaking. you know, this might be the breaking point.

[00:40:08]>> Um, the other thing I'd say is that one one of the interesting things about this is that one of the reasons that there is not an easy way out of this because it bumps up against something that has been true about Russia's political economy that has was originally a real advantage, right? Which is that actually Russia has a very strong credible central bank, right? That is genuinely independent from the Kremlin. So, it's run by a government called Alva Abulina who's widely respected in sort of central banking circles. And this was originally an advantage, right? because it actually it was one of the reasons that you didn't see Russian or rubal denominated assets sell off as aggressively as you might have thought they would after sanctions. I mean it was because basically people trusted the Russian central bank to stabilize things right to I mean mainly by raising interest rates to politically uncomfortable levels but to thus bring down inflation and therefore sort of stem the depreciation of the ruble right and that's exactly what happened the Russian central bank you know unlike in in more sort of like authorit more regimes where power is consolidated in just the president um the central bank was actually able to raise interest rates it was genuinely painful for the Russian economy but it did make a difference to inflation inflation did come down it t it came down to sort of I think 2% actually in early 24. It ticked back up throughout 2024 and 25, but then the central bank raised rates again and it had started coming down. And the problem here is that having a genuinely independent central bank that is genuinely does genuinely care about inflation targeting means that when you get to moments like this, you can't just get the central bank to functionally print money for you and lend you that money, right? Maybe it will, but the problem is that would completely erode the perceived independence of that central bank, right? And that would create another weakness in the economy.

[00:41:36]And I think more more more more sort of fundamentally there's a culture now in in Russia's sort of like politics where the central bank is just genuinely independent and it just genuinely does what it wants. And I don't think it would like to be seen as sort of bailing the Kremlin out in this way. I might be wrong about that. They might step in, print some money, give that to to Putin.

[00:41:55]Um but it was one of those things where actually that was all, you know, having essentially a genuine power center away from the Kremlin was originally a sort of advantage, right? You got all the advantages you nor get from in central banking and it really like restored restore confidence in the Russian economy, but it does mean that when you mess around too much on the fiscal side, as the Kremlin currently is, you don't have the sort of monetary policy to bail you out.

[00:42:14]>> Yeah.

[00:42:15]>> Fun.

[00:42:16]>> Very fun. I mean, actually, genuinely, >> more interesting.

[00:42:19]>> Much more interesting than I thought. I mean, [laughter] I asked the follow-up question as soon as you started talking about bonds, I was like, well, this is this podcast is running short.

[00:42:27][laughter] Um, >> the one little other tidbit by the way, the last time the UK, just to give you a sense of how bad this is, the last time the UK had an actual buyer strike, where it actually couldn't find buyers for new debt was about 1976, famous buyers strike. We went, we went to the IMF months later, right, for the biggest bailout the IMF had ever had ever authored. You know, Russia does not have that option.

[00:42:47]>> No. True.

[00:42:48]>> So, I'm just giving you some context.

[00:42:49]It's really rare to have a proper buyer strike in your bond market.

[00:42:51]>> Well, let's keep an eye on it, but are moving down for the moment. Uh, and yeah, sounds like things are continuing to go pretty badly there. Um, turn on the reaction pretty badly.

[00:43:01]>> I just It's a classic you, you know what I mean? A little tail off.

[00:43:04]>> Yeah. Yeah. [laughter] Um, okay. Let's jump over to the final section of the main podcast, our ultimate winner and ultimate loser.

[00:43:15]Okay, so the way this works is each of us will now vote for the person we think is the biggest winner and the biggest loser based off the conversations we've just had. If we reach a consensus, that person moves up or down an additional spot on the board. Your options for ultimate winner are Burnham, uh, Alidi, and Diaz Canal.

[00:43:34]>> Everyone's D Canal, right?

[00:43:35]>> Yeah. [laughter] >> Can you imagine? Uh, Rory, you go first.

[00:43:40]>> Has to be Andy Burnham. Andy Mari Burnham is his name. Is he really?

[00:43:44]>> Yeah. It's quite fun.

[00:43:46]>> Yeah. His name's Andy. Andy Mari.

[00:43:48]>> It's got to be >> Bernham.

[00:43:49]>> Nah.

[00:43:51]I convinced you. Wow.

[00:43:53]>> I also just don't want us to get it. I I I believe [laughter] upset from off camera >> because she doesn't want that line to get too busy again >> cuz Burnham could have moved out of the video.

[00:44:03]>> Yeah, but like he's rocketed to the top.

[00:44:04]It's fine. Don't worry about it, Scarlet. Um [laughter] I But both are good, but Al is a fun one because I wasn't even aware of it being a thing. And also, I don't want us as a country get ahead of our skis. Burnham has only just started.

[00:44:21]We cannot be bumping him up. We just We're moving >> Starmit from like the depths of the board. Not much has changed. He's got better vibes. He's northern.

[00:44:34]>> But that's why he's so lucky. That's why it's so great for him. He hasn't even done anything and he's suddenly prime minister of the UK. Agreed.

[00:44:41]>> And his polling is now pretty great.

[00:44:42]>> Agreed. But he still has to deal with all of the terrible garbage that Star did. And I just don't Let's I'm not saying it will go badly. Yeah. I'm just saying let's not get over excited. If Britain lands as a lightly positive, I'm very happy with that at the moment.

[00:45:01]>> So, I'm sorry, Andy. I know you're watching. I know it's a big week for you, but >> I'm not giving it to you. You got to work hard.

[00:45:07]>> If he's not getting a double move this week, he's never getting it.

[00:45:09]>> I just don't think good vibes is enough to win it. He's not done enough.

[00:45:13]>> I think the point is that he's been unduly rewarded for merely good vibes.

[00:45:16]You mean that always like he's been it's coronation for a bloke he's got I mean you know I'm not going to sound too dismissive but like not the most amazing record right it's a sort of like >> totally unambiguous coronation for a bloke who basically selling point is that he's got slightly better vibes >> not today anyway not today whatever fine >> um your options for ultimate loser are Modi or Putin I don't know what to do on this one [laughter and snorts] I'm worried I'm going to accidentally troll it mess it up because I just genuinely don't know which one to vote for.

[00:45:50]>> Rory, who's your ultimate loser?

[00:45:51]>> Hopefully few people can read this. My pen was slightly running out. Uh, but Vladimir Putin, that completely convinced me.

[00:45:58]>> I'm I'm sold.

[00:45:58]>> That's very kind. Mine is also going to be Vladimir Putin. [laughter] Yeah, of course he has.

[00:46:04]>> It's all right. At least he's out there.

[00:46:07]>> No, I think I get both. And Putin's thing is probably objectively worse, but I feel like Modi is naturally inherently stronger in my mind. Like the fact that Putin's struggling is like, well, yeah, we've been we've not done this for four years now. Like >> to be fair, it's worth noting that Putin has gone very much up and down over those four years, right? True. He's coming down from the top of the board.

[00:46:31]He was very very high up for a while.

[00:46:32]>> Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. But like the recent narrative of Putin struggling, that's not new. Modi. Fair enough. That's true.

[00:46:39]It's new. Definitely newer. Yeah, Modi.

[00:46:41]>> He's on the way down.

[00:46:42]>> I know. That's crazy cuz he only moves up.

[00:46:44]>> I don't know if that's true either.

[00:46:46]>> Not true.

[00:46:46]>> Modi's like Sorry.

[00:46:48]>> I feel like Mod's going to be there the whole time. Like Modi's a constant.

[00:46:52]>> Yeah.

[00:46:52]>> In my life at least.

[00:46:55]>> Okay, that's enough.

[00:46:57]>> Uh, that's all we got time for in this episode of the World Lead Leader Board.

[00:47:02]You handed over your whiteboard already?

[00:47:03]>> Yeah, >> I'm still talking, but thank you.

[00:47:05][laughter] >> Just go on and pass them down. Get the pens down. Thank you so much.

[00:47:10]>> Um, we're all tidying up. Um, that's all we got time for in this episode of the World Lead Leader Board, but we are about to record our bonus section, the last move, which is exclusively available to TLDDR party members. So, if you'd like to see us discuss three more people, three people we haven't talked about in a while, and I'm going to petition we purge one of them, um, then check out the last move exclusively on TLDDR Party, also home to, uh, Andemonium, which we just talked about.

[00:47:38]So, get yourself down there. £4 a month.

[00:47:40]You know, let's not be silly. We'll see you next week.