'Completely transparent': Trump uses threat of military force as leverage against Iran

[00:00:00]Let's turn to the conflict in the Middle East now. The US military has launched strikes in Iran for the 11th consecutive night. Donald Trump says that the US will bomb Iran's Pickaxe Mountain, a deep underground site that the US and Israel suspect could be used for nuclear activity. Let's listen to Donald Trump.

[00:00:17]>> Do you believe that Iran has moved nuclear centrifuges into Pickaxe Mountain? And when you say, "We're not done yet." What is left to finish?

[00:00:25]>> Well, I think that they they may have. We don't have it on record. Follow the material. That's where the action is. And we'll be hitting that area very probably pretty soon. And there's not a not a thing they can do about it. You know, normally I wouldn't say that.

[00:00:41]If I thought they could do something about it, I would never say that. But we'll be hitting that area pretty soon.

[00:00:47]And and very heavily.

[00:00:50]>> Joe, what did you make of that? What can we really expect?

[00:00:55]>> Well, he probably will hit the mountain.

[00:00:56]You know, people don't you know, whether you like Trump or not, >> [laughter] >> a lot of Americans are very easy a lot of Americans are quite unhappy with Trump's policies, his economy, his war in Iran, and all the rest of it. But he you can't fault him for being completely transparent about what he's doing. He's He's literally telling you that he he may have to go here. Now, he he wanted this memorandum of understanding to stick, of course. We've now had 11 days of strikes. And you know, he's he's going to ramp it up because that's what he can do. And he can do it on a unilateral basis. When he got in there, he wanted to sort of resolve this problem with Iran, and I thought that was a terrific idea. He wanted to do it in sort of a spectacular way, a historical way, and and very flashy.

[00:01:41]Well, that didn't work because, you know, the resistance didn't rise up and throw out the the clerics. So, we had to do it the hard way. We had to sort of compel them. There's a phrase uh Gabriela called "compellence diplomacy" or "coercive diplomacy." You know, sometimes you have to use military force to get other people to come to the table or to agree to things.

[00:02:02]And And Trump is using the assets that he has. The only thing that I'm worried about here is that this war is so unpopular in America, and I mean unpopular, it's going to drag the Republicans down in the midterm elections, etc. The president's going to have to show not an exit policy, but some some benefits. Every war has a cost-benefit kind of thing going on. And today the secretary of defense, secretary of war, went before Congress and said this war has only cost I don't know, $32 billion. That's not true, actually. It's closer to $100 billion according to all the major think tanks around America. They're going to have to be a little more forthcoming about what this thing is costing. And the other thing the president has to do is make it very clear that this is about making sure that the Strait of Hormuz is opened and that the regime lays off its neighbors, that is the Iranian regime, plays a decent role in their neighborhood. Otherwise, the US is going to keep coming after them. And that's why this is a forever war because it's neither war nor peace. I don't care if they sign a another ceasefire while you and I are on air here, it doesn't mean anything because they'll be back at it again in a week or two. President is going to punish them every time they they move on this. And of course, now we have a new dimension, Gabriella. We have the the Houthis who are firmly under Iranian control threatening to close the Red Sea, which is that body between Suez and and and and the the the straits at the other end of that. And so, you know, that's another 7% of the world's oil and gas supply being cut off. So, if we bring the Houthis in, we're going to widen the war and worsen the economy around the world.

[00:03:42]And you know, what? This this this is going to require some some very clever diplomacy. You know, no war ever ended without diplomacy. And so, we're going to have to sort of double down here about how we're going to do this and what is acceptable to the American people. Uh the problem is the president keeps getting caught in this trap, you know, if you kill one of ours, we're going to kill 10 of yours. That kind of talk doesn't go very far. I mean, you have to do what you have to do. And if he goes after the bridges and he goes after the infrastructure, they'll go after the allies in the region. Uh can you imagine the billions of dollars worth of damage already done to the Iranian economy and infrastructure and the billions of dollars that they're causing on American bases and on American allies in the region. I mean, this thing is just sort of out of control. And of course, at the end of the day, you're going to run out of bullets, you're going to run out of missiles, and then you're going to have to do something else. I mean, this is a a war and I hope it's not a war of exhaustion, but it's a war that's sort of lost its meaning, you know, in the beginning it was a great idea to liberate the the the Iranian people, the Persians, they could rise up. Well, that didn't happen for a lot of reasons. And then it became something else. And also there's this this fairy tale that there are hardliners in in Iran. I mean, they're all hardliners in Iran. They're all devoted to the clerics and the Revolutionary Guard. These guys have been ensconced in power now for embedded in power now for, you know, 47 years. They ain't going to give it up tomorrow and they're prepared to do something Americans aren't prepared to do, and that is to throw as many Iranians into the meat grinder as they have to. I mean, they don't care if they lose a million people. They lost a million people in the war against Iraq in in the 1980s. I mean, they don't have midterm elections. They don't have to answer to anybody. That's the problem here is that we have to answer to people, people like you, me, and the American public. We all ask, "What's going on here?" And in Iran, if you ask a question like that, you might find yourself hanging on a pole some night.

[00:05:38]>> Yeah, well, those are the double standards, aren't they? There are also reports that regime change is back on the agenda for the Trump administration.

[00:05:45]The Financial Times is reporting this after diplomatic efforts appeared to fail.

[00:05:50]Would that be successful, regime change?

[00:05:53]>> Uh not really. I think um Look um Uh let's face it. When you when you have a cancer, you have to cut it out.

[00:06:02]They're not going to cut it out with a regime change because any regime change they get will be people who have grown up during the revolutionary guard or part of the clerical thing. I've always thought the secret here from the very get-go was to decouple the clerics of political control of Iran. You know, they could be head of state and all that stuff. But, you know, they're in charge of finances, military, and political life, and social life. I mean, until you cut the the clerics out of out of the political picture, uh we're never going to have any any peace in that area, and it's going to be a problem for a long time for America's friends and allies in the region. And we do have friends and allies in the region. And, you know, and Israel's going to be America's friend for a long time. And, you know, at the end of the day, Americans may get a little upset with Israel about this and that. But, you know, the Israelis are the only people in that region, uh Gabriel, who count the votes one at a time.

[00:06:56]I always thought that was very important. We like democratic regimes.

[00:07:00]We may not like what they do all the time, but uh we like the fact that they have elections and all the free elections and all the rest of it. So, uh Look, it's a very complicated situation.

[00:07:09]A regime change, of course, is uh up there with the fairy dust. I mean, that's not going to happen. We tried it on day one. It didn't work. So, at the end of the day, we're going to do what we did in Vietnam and Iraq and Afghanistan. We're just going to bomb the hell out of them until we see what we can see. And the president has forebodingly said the other day, and I just cringed when I heard it. He said that this war may go on till next year.

[00:07:32]I hope not, but that looks like that may be the case.

[00:07:36]>> Tracey Syracuse, uh thank you so much for joining us on Power Hour. Always appreciate getting your insights and analysis.

[00:07:42]>> Thank you.