VIP Trade Room

[00:04:23]Well, hi there everyone and welcome to the VIP trade room with Roger Scott and Matt Horton. Now, today is Tuesday, July 21st, and my name is Raleigh White, and I'm coming to you live from a beautiful sunny day here in Austin, Texas, and I'm going to be your moderator today. Now, in today's session, Roger is going to be covering a range of important topics with a continuing focus on the tools and techniques that he uses to scalp the markets every day. Now, he's going to begin with a midday market analysis, an updated stock watch list, and he's also going to give us an earnings update.

[00:04:59]Then, he's going to share with us why volume after price is critical to finding great scalps. He's going to share with us the difference between identifying a random trade and an intentional trade in the markets and when it's too late to chase and avoid a scalp trade. He's also going to share why using daily charts is key to confirming scalp setups and the importance of using a 20inut time stop on scalp trades. And then finally, folks, when and how to turn a scalp into a longerterm trade. Now, if you've got any questions during Roger's presentation, please type them in the chat window and we'll address them periodically throughout the session so as to not interfere with Roger's presentation.

[00:05:47]Uh uh also I want to indicate that the the the room is open to everyone. So remember that we do have some ground rules. Always be kind. Okay. Keep to the topic and no political discussions allowed whatsoever. Also, folks, keep your side conversations to a minimum and focus on the education and information that Roger is sharing because he's here to give us an edge in the markets and to help us all become much more confident and consistent in our trading activities.

[00:06:21]Uh, so I'm just going to do something very quickly here, folks. Thanks for reminding me that I need to update my name. There you go. You see me there as the presenter and the host right now.

[00:06:34]Now, for those of you that were with us this morning at 8:00 for Rogers pre-market uh briefing, you'll note that there were several catalysts on top that we untapped that we that we needed to be aware of. First of all, on the energy front, West Texas Intermediate was up 2% at $84 a barrel. On the international front, the Euro stocks were up 7/10en of a point. The Shanghai Chinese markets were up 1.8% and the Japanese Nicay was up 3.3% following the holiday where those markets were closed on Monday, which was yesterday.

[00:07:11]In the chip sector, we noted that Micron and Marll were both up 6% and Intel was up 5% in pre-market activity. On infoch, SanDisk was up 8 percentage point, but Adobe was down 4 percentage points. With regard to mags, we noted that Tesla and Nvidia were both up 1%. And on the finance front, MSCI was down 11 percentage point. As far as the Fed is concerned, folks, really nothing of note or importance whatsoever with regard to reports, speakers, or anything of that nature. As a matter of fact, on the Fed front, things are pretty quiet for the rest of this week.

[00:07:52]Now with as relates to those stocks that were releasing their earnings before market open because we are in the in the uh earning season right now on the industrial front. We needed to pay attention because 3M and uh uh and this is I guess Horton and NOC uh were getting ready to release their earnings before market open. On the automotive front, General Motors on the finance front we had Schwab and Key. On the construction side, we had DH Horton and on the energy front we had Hallebertton and I think back to the industrials, DHR, that's Danaher. Okay. And North Grumman is NOC. But so we had a bunch of key companies getting ready to release their earnings before market open. Now, for those of you that are wondering, you know, why do we pay attention to these catalysts at all? Well, from Roger's perspective, anytime there's information that's either known or will become known during this trading session, today's trading session, and it's not yet priced into the market, well, that's a volatility flash point. And if you're looking to trade a stock or a sector or an ETF or whatnot that could be impacted by one of these volatility flash points, well, that should give you cause for pause. As far as Roger's pre-market stock watch list is concerned, he gave us 14 tickers to to consider. Six to the short side and eight to the long side.

[00:09:16]Now, on the short side, you'll note that there were three stocks here, Netflix, Cava, and WFRD. They're both underlined.

[00:09:24]And the reason I underlined them is that when Roger was bringing up these stocks on his charts, he indicated that these are some pretty good-looking stocks as far as the setup is concerned. Now, on the long side, we had eight tickers to consider. And you'll note here that there were also three that were underscored, ISR, WERN, and ZD. And the same thing here. Roger's quick comment here was that he liked the way that these things were setting up. Now, to that point, I need to remind everybody that this is a pre-market stock watch list. What that means is that when Roger wakes up in the morning and he starts to look at the markets, one of the things he does is he looks for stocks that look like they have the potential to develop into something he might want to take during the trading day. And from that perspective, that's what makes this a watch list. And if any of these tickers mature to the point that they meet Roger's exacting standards, more than likely he will take that trade and he'll share that with you in the trading pit or in another one of his premium alert services. Now, as far as Roger's preop analysis is concerned, when we got into the room together this morning, we noted that the futures were up on a continued surge in chips and chip related stocks.

[00:10:42]We did see that the uh put to call ratio was unbalanced, heavily favoring puts and as far as the VIX was concerned, it was down below the 18 level, essentially where it was yesterday. As far as the longer term trend is concerned, it was down. We noted that 64% of the S&P 500 companies were above the 200 day moving average. And that's down two points from where it was this time yesterday. On the NASDAQ 100, 62% of those companies are above the 200 day moving average. And that's down four points from where that was yesterday. On the shortterm trend, we noted that it was also down as 52% of the S&P 500 companies were above the 20-day moving average. That's down six points from where it was yesterday. And on the NASDAQ 100, only 42% of those companies are above the 20-day moving average. And that's down three points from where it was yesterday. So essentially, when Roger looked at the markets this morning, he says, you know, folks, I kind of like what I see. Once again, the futures were all up across the board, but he said, "I am concerned that this rally appears to be very narrowly focused." He said, you know, you need to pay attention to the fact that the bonds are down. They're below that key 84 level, and that's a concern to him. And he said, by all factors, it's SMH. It's the chips that are driving the bus. And we also noted that sector rotation was definitely favoring defensive stocks. So from his perspective, he said, "Look, we need to keep an eye on the bonds, on the chips, and the QQQ, and to see if they can all start moving up together for signs of a broaderbased rally. What he doesn't want to see is SMH being the lone ranger, being the only one that's basically up or above its range as everyone else lags behind." And so from that perspective, it was be careful folks and definitely go ahead and keep an eye on the TLT, the SMH, and the QQQ. Well, we're delighted to have you with us here today because we have put together another terrific agenda for you. And what we're going to be doing is having a continuing focus on the tools and the techniques that Roger uses to scalp the markets every day.

[00:13:04]Now, we're going to begin with a midday market analysis and an updated stock watch list and earnings update. And then Roger's going to share with us why volume after pricing, folks, is critical to finding great scalps. He's going to share with us the difference between a random trade activity and intentional trade activity. And this will be really important when discerning a scalping setup. He's also going to share with us when it's too late to chase and when it's probably smart to avoid a scalp trade. He's going to share with us why using daily charts are key to confirming scalp setups, the importance of using a 20inut time stop on scalp trades, and when and how to turn a scalp trade into a potential longerterm swing trade. So, if you've got any questions during Roger's presentation, [laughter] please type them in the chat window and we'll address them periodically throughout the session so as to not interfere with Roger's presentation. And also folks, remember I've opened up the chat room to everyone and we do have some ground rules. Always be kind and supportive in your posts. Please keep to the topic. No political discussions allowed whatsoever and keep those side conversations to a minimum so that the rest of us can focus on the education and the information that Roger's sharing because he's here to give us an edge and to help us all become much more confident and consistent in our trading activities. And with that folks, let's say hi to the gang. Roger, great to see you. Matt, always great to see you. You know, Roger, you know, I was thinking this morning, you basically gave us some levels to keep an eye on on the QQQ and the SPY and the SMH, and you said, man, if I threw the bonds in there if these the four of these could kind of get together and move in lockep, that would be a good sign. And you know, Roger, looking at the markets, I could even throw mags in there. Mags, QQQ, the SPY, and the SMH, they all have a very similar upward momentum this morning.

[00:15:06]bonds, huh, they're still struggling with that 84 level. Uh, but even crude has just been sideways. So, that's how I see it. But more importantly, Roger, how do you see things today?

[00:15:18]>> Well, let me uh let me just Okay, so I'm I like what I'm seeing. I'm encouraged by what I'm seeing partly because the spy is above the 8day MA and the 50-day MA. This is positive as long as it doesn't fall back into this trap. But I like what I'm seeing. Um, as far as the QQQ, we still have a long ways to go to the 50-day moving average, but we're moving in the right direction. Hopefully, this will this this will be just a blip in our radar, and you know, the rest of earnings will be good. I'm a little I would feel a lot better if the QQQ was trading above the 50-day moving average.

[00:15:51]And I'll tell you why. It's very e it would be very easy right now. Here, here's the problem. I'm going to I'm going to show you what the problem is.

[00:15:59]It would be very easy for us to do this and it would look completely normal. It would >> Roger, are you doing a screen share there, my friend?

[00:16:07]>> Oh. Oh, I thought I was. Sorry. I thought I was screen sharing. I I'm >> Oh, God. [laughter] >> I don't want to miss out on You know, we had such a good session this morning. It was I It was so satisfying to actually get my thoughts across in a in a good way. Nobody was interrupting. Nobody was talking politics. It was really great.

[00:16:26]We we I I really got my point across.

[00:16:29]So, do you guys see what I'm talking about? It it wouldn't be >> Yeah. You see, it wouldn't be it wouldn't be out of it wouldn't be out of the left field for this to come up here and find resistance and come up.

[00:16:40]Therefore, I would feel a lot better if we were trading right here. If you look at the spy, if if if you look at the spy right now, you will see that the spy is already trading above the 50-day, which which is which makes me feel a lot stronger, but but the QQQ still leaves me with a lot of vulnerability in my opinion. SMH is coming back again. SMH could do exactly the same thing. And remember, we have here uh show you.

[00:17:07]We've got a lot of uh I'll post this for you. I posted this already for a few days ago, but I'll post it again.

[00:17:17]Here we we've we've got Here's this. And if you look at this document, you will see that excuse [clears throat] me, you got uh today's today's Wednesday, right?

[00:17:29]>> It's Tuesday, Roger.

[00:17:30]>> Today's Tuesday, excuse me.

[00:17:31]>> Tuesday the 21st.

[00:17:33]>> I'm glad I asked. I'm glad I asked. I'm already on Wednesday, you know.

[00:17:36]>> I [laughter] know you're still on Germany time.

[00:17:40]>> Yeah, I guess so. But tomorrow tomorrow we've got we've got, you know, t What don't we have tomorrow, right? Google, Tesla, uh IBM, now Texas Instrument, uh and then you have you're starting off with Intel. And remember folks, the last three large cap chip stocks that came out with earnings, even though they outperform estimates, they were not good enough for Wall Street. So, see this is a fair I mean it's not a strong downtrend, but that's a downtrend, right? That is a downtrend. I mean, the up here, I'll show you what I mean. Like if I was to just do a basic analysis of this, okay, it's a real simple analysis.

[00:18:20]Uh where's that chart? Here it is.

[00:18:24]This pretty much breaks right here somewhere or even right here and this becomes a downtrend. Okay. This can easily do this.

[00:18:32]>> Mhm.

[00:18:32]>> And just continue building here and we wouldn't be any wiser be like, "Yeah, that looks very normal." So, we're at a we're coming up to a very very crucial level in both QQQ and SMH. And both, if you look at QQQ and SMH, they're both kind of mimicking each other. They got to get above the 50-day. Till they get above the 50-day, it's going to be it's going to be very difficult to trust this market.

[00:18:57]And I want to make sure you guys understand why. Not just because I'm telling you you shouldn't trust this market. I want you to understand this can be setting up for a continuation of a downtrend and we could literally be moving higher for two more days and we can still revert. And technically, you see, let me let me show you why.

[00:19:16]Technically, look look, see this right here? How hard would it be for us to come right here and bounce right down?

[00:19:24]And I can continue building the slope in this direction. You see the problem?

[00:19:29]>> Yeah. till we get above this slope, we're still in a downtrend. So for me, for me, in my opinion, and it happens to be right at the 50-day, you know, Murphy's law never fails. That slope, this look how they cross each other. They're right at the 50-day moving average. So, and by the time if this keeps going up, the 50-day moving average would have come down a little bit closer to this. So, so you're you're basically looking at this level right here, the 720 level on the QQQ.

[00:19:55]And if we can't get above this 720 level, we're we're not going to be in a good place. Um, and again, SMH, same thing. See, let me let me um let me go ahead and and and just draw this for you, and you'll see what I'm talking about. Here's the slope, right? And I don't want to get too technicals about high volume candles and all. Just this is the slope, right?

[00:20:20]Well, we got to get back. We got we can very easily or just let's say the slope is right there. We can very easily come right up here and it can come back down and it'll be Yeah, we just came up right to the trend line which is exactly where we're supposed to go before it comes off. It's it's done that here. It's done that here. It's done that here. And every time it comes off, >> right?

[00:20:40]>> Do you guys understand the problem that I'm having? Are we in a reversal or are we in quicksand mode? Cuz right now this is quicksand mode. So, I'm very very nervous right now till we get back above the 50-day moving average. More importantly, I want you to understand the dynamic of the situation so you understand why. Because nobody will listen to what I say, but maybe if you understand why, you will. Look, this can just as easily go right here, make another lower high, and come right back down, right?

[00:21:11]Like nothing happened, and we'll be in and we'll be all sucked in with our longs. I don't want that to happen. I don't want that to happen. So, we got to be really really really careful and we have to go with sectors that are already up here. So, for example, um financials are are are totally different conversation, you know, different different real uh healthcare not looking great but looking better than the other one. Again, my point is we need to we need to stick with sectors that are moving higher. Now, mags are still abuing this line. We need to get over here. We're right at the uh we're literally right below the 50 and the eight. We need to get over here. So, I like what I'm seeing, don't get me wrong, and I'm not complaining. I I like what I'm seeing quite a bit. Um but but at the same time, at the same time, um I'm very nervous about this and I have good reasons to be nervous about this.

[00:22:14]All right. I mean, Nvidia is trading below the 50-day moving average right now. That's not a great look, you know, and this mostly follows mags, not chips.

[00:22:23]It's kind of on its own little island, >> right?

[00:22:27]>> But, um, and I know I'm being a little extra cautious right now, but considering the time of year, considering considering what's going on in the world right now, I think I think that I would be out of my mind not to tell you all that, especially with the bond market doing that.

[00:22:45]Right. Look at that now. See, look. It comes right up here.

[00:22:49]It looks like we're going to break out.

[00:22:51]It comes right up to up to our up to the the trend line and then it comes right back down.

[00:22:56]You see what I mean? So, I don't want to be suckered into that right now with the QQQ and I don't want to be suckered into that with the SMH.

[00:23:04]And Roger, when you basically say, "Hey, it looks like it's in quicksand." You're not just referring to chip stocks.

[00:23:10]You're just basically saying that's a visual representation. You know, in other words, there are stocks that are trying to go up, but there's something holding it down.

[00:23:18]>> Well, that is quick. That's kind of what I mean by quick that's quicksand like like like a false like Okay. What I mean by quicksand is I mean a false sense of security like oh, we're moving up up up.

[00:23:29]Uh we're sinking back down. So the key is if we get on this side of the fence, we're not in quicksand anymore. This is still quicksand because we're in a down.

[00:23:40]Let me um it's I think I think if I just A lot of people are visual so let me just kind of do this. So look look at price action.

[00:23:54]>> See that?

[00:23:55]>> Yeah.

[00:23:55]>> I'm afraid that is going to happen instead of this. And till we break out of this area, we're still in quicksand mode. meaning we're we're we go up up up and then we we get basically it the we get fault okay so it goes up here it gives us that false hope that we're going to come out of the water without a problem and then as soon as we start pulling out it pulls us back in even deeper >> right >> that's what I'm talking about I'm talking about longs right now and again folks I know you're like well Roger SMH is looking great right now it's breaking out but look at the bigger picture look at where we are you understand look at where we are this. That's a problem.

[00:24:35]That's a problem. So, until we can get here here, I'll say, "Hey, we're in safety right now. We're out of that water. We're done with it. We have like the spy right now is is it tried to get it below. It couldn't do it. It tried doing it for 3 days. Couldn't get below this area and it's coming back up."

[00:24:53]But again, the problem here is this.

[00:24:56]This high is lower than this. Remember the lesson I gave you guys yesterday?

[00:25:01]There was it was a very important lesson yesterday. It was it was about the mountains.

[00:25:06]>> Yep. [snorts] >> It was about the hills.

[00:25:09]And look what the spy is doing. Is this top look higher than this top?

[00:25:13]>> Mhm. [clears throat] >> It sure does. So this to me, this to me right here, all of this is very very I'm very nervous about all of this because high highest high lower high lower high.

[00:25:30]And now we have a situation where the QQQ can't get above this level. I look at all See, I put this together in a three-dimensional like it's a three. It's like Rubik's Cube for me.

[00:25:42]>> Yep.

[00:25:42]>> So, I'm looking at but I'm explaining to you what all the colors in the Rubik's Cube are so you can kind of see them all and you can put them together in your head. So, you've got a bond market that's breaking down. You've got a SPY that's making lower highs. You've got uh SMH, which has been the darling of Wall Street, below the 50-day moving average with three companies coming out with earnings that can't outperform expect that that exceed every estimate for the company and for and for uh analysts, but not for investors. I mean, that's like if you want to talk about a red flag, >> what more could you do?

[00:26:20]>> That happened three times. That happened with three companies already. And I don't mean to get so excited, but I just want you guys to understand and I'm giving you hard cold facts. I'm not talking about well you see in six months this I'm talking about right now as we talk right now what's going on with the market.

[00:26:39]>> You know the other thing Roger that always impresses me is that all that analysis that you just did was on a daily chart.

[00:26:46]>> On a daily chart folks the intraday will fool you.

[00:26:50]>> Yes.

[00:26:51]>> It fools you. The bigger picture is what [laughter] you need to pay attention to.

[00:26:55]>> Yeah. Yeah. Because look look how easy this can come up here and just fall right back down.

[00:27:01]>> Mhm.

[00:27:02]>> And and you'd be like, "Yep, yep. Just we're just continuing this downtrend."

[00:27:06]No. Uh and all these people who bought the Apples and Nvidas and all that, they're all like, "Oh, quicksand mode.

[00:27:12]Now we have to wait for this thing to go higher and we won't be able to get out of our stocks till it does." So, and I don't want to get people into those situations. And and the problem, well, Roger, go short. The problem is going short is is a problem, too. Right now, the spies above the 50-day moving average. If this thing keeps going up and breaks, it's going to sucker in the shorts. We're in a very vulnerable spot right now, and it's summer.

[00:27:37]So, again, uh yeah, very strong.

[00:27:45]Yeah, bank stocks are strong.

[00:27:46]Financials. Financials are uh uh financials are where's my mouse? My mouse here's my mouse.

[00:27:55]Where's my XL? Financials are looking really good. Financials are are looking absolutely fantastic. And um what's that what's that ticker for uh regional banks?

[00:28:10]Let's see. Uh >> I'm not familiar with that one.

[00:28:12]>> Yeah. No, I I don't expect you to. I don't I wouldn't expect you to banking index banks are are definitely starting to come up >> and all Matt said maybe RF or KRE or >> KR KRE is the one KRE thank you Minnesota Matt regional banks I I like these see these stocks don't look anything like the rest of the market they're making lows right here near the 15-day I like I like these stocks I like these stocks I like XYZ right now so anyhow uh the point the point I was trying to make is be very very careful.

[00:28:45]Trade smaller positions. Do I don't trust this market. I don't trust the structure, the foundation of this market. Usually, I like the long-term trend, but I'm very very cautious about the short-term trend.

[00:28:59]Right now, I'm cautious about the long-term trend, the structure of this market. And the reason is the bonds, SMH, and QQQ. All right. I think everybody everybody got it. Everybody got it. Uh >> yeah, the comments have been outstanding, Roger. You know, anytime that you take a few moments to share that was very very helpful in particularly, you know, just looking at, you know, what happens where you have a downward trend and watching the prices just bounce off of the 50-day and uh and the that whole definition behind what is quicksand and how should you recognize it? What are you waiting for? So, right now, as you said, the market's vulnerable. Okay. It doesn't, you know, you're not basically advocating going short. You're you're basically saying we've got to wait for the hand to play itself out.

[00:29:49]Yeah. This is a nice look right here.

[00:29:52]Uh that's a real nice look. If you guys want to do a bonus, like a a baby bonus trade, WFC looks really good right now.

[00:30:00]Wells Fargo looks really good right now.

[00:30:03]Um, I would I I'm talking about short-term trade, like maybe maybe going in um 3 days to this option right here.

[00:30:11]Uh maybe uh the 47 strike price, something like that. Or maybe going maybe going a little deeper to this run right here, the 87. It looks pretty good. Looks pretty good.

[00:30:22]Uh >> look at this bonuses from Roger.

[00:30:25]>> Yeah. Yeah. Here, let me just add add that. uh adding WFC to long watch list.

[00:30:32]Thanks, Dave.

[00:30:34]>> And it's part of financials. [laughter] >> It's part of that financial group.

[00:30:39]>> All right. Yeah, it's a nice It's a nice look. It actually is a very nice look right now. Okay. Um let me give you guys stocks that I'm looking at right now to the short side and the long side and we'll go from there. Okay.

[00:30:51]>> Okay.

[00:30:51]>> But I got to tell you, Raleigh, this morning I really I I I left my table and I felt so satisfied. I actually felt like I got everything I wanted to talk about across. It >> was a great session, Ro. It really was.

[00:31:02]>> It was a good session. Good session.

[00:31:04]Okay, so this stock PSA, be very cautious. See, it looked like it wanted to break the the the 50 and now it looks like it's coming up. So, I still like this stock, but be cautious with this stock to the short side.

[00:31:16]Um, bro, this this one looked really good. I still like this one. Okay, now I took this one I took this one uh short.

[00:31:26]Actually, I'm going to get out of it right now.

[00:31:36]Okay. I was uh I was in the bathroom and I I missed an exit on this and I finally got it. But I still like this stock for a swing trade. I still like this. I still It's got room to the 50 or uh Yeah, it's got it's got some room. It's got some room. PD U HTT. Now, this stock has the worst looking options, [snorts] but it's been going down all day. I called this out in the main Telegram channel, I think, uh, about an hour and a half ago or so. I don't know. A while back, this earlier today, and it's still going down, but I couldn't find any options on it.

[00:32:13]I think I might have even commented on it. Let me see. Let me see if I commented on it. I I think I might have said something nasty about it.

[00:32:21][laughter] Ah, I did. I did. See, I know how I operate. Look, it was at 11:15.

[00:32:26]Look, uh, adding HTH to short watch list, but options are crap. Just FYI.

[00:32:31][laughter] >> Now, Roger, to that point, why would that be? Is the market maker asleep at the wheel or >> he's just an ass? He's just an ass. He doesn't want to make a good market for these things. Look, I mean, there's no volume. There's no mar even if there's volume there. There's no there's just he's just being an ass. Liquidity is low.

[00:32:48]Um, it's not that low. The market maker is just being an ass. There are some good market makers and there are some bad market makers. What can I tell you?

[00:32:56]All right. Um Netflix. I still like Netflix to the short side. And notice the market's becoming fairly bullish shortterm, right? I mean, right? Like right now, Netflix is still going down.

[00:33:09]Yeah, I better tell someone that. Hold on.

[00:33:22]Okay.

[00:33:23]>> Uh, it's looking pretty good. Now, notice something interesting. Notice the stock had a big fat gap, right?

[00:33:29]>> Yep.

[00:33:30]>> And then the stock that it tried to rally it it opened here. It rallied up here and then it just came down again.

[00:33:37]When you see something like that, that's a good short. That's not a bad short.

[00:33:42]Just giving you a heads up. That's not a that's like a gap and go, you know. Um, that's a that's a pretty good that that's a bearish bearish trade right there. That means there's some real fundamental problems there. And there is. I mean, you know, I'm going to tell you something. The last two movies I looked up on Netflix, they're new movies. They were lifetime movies.

[00:33:59]They're now showing lifetime movies on Netflix. Come on. I mean, you have to pay 20 bucks or 30 bucks a month for that. It's embarrassing.

[00:34:08]This is two in a row already. Like over Now they're showing Lifetime movies on Netflix. Come on.

[00:34:14]Um, I like this stock to the short side.

[00:34:17]Now, this is a setup that Richie and I were talking about a couple of months ago. So, the stock looked like a good stock to the long side and then it start breaking the 15 and the 50. And this is that cross. And I've noticed quite a lot of them when they really re like done. I think a lot of people are starting to sell them here because they see it's not working out. And um stock is looking pretty good.

[00:34:42]looking pretty good actually. Um I like this stock for a short. So there are there's still some, you know, there's still some some stocks out there that I like. Um again, my my concern is just be very very careful and just keep an eye on that the big picture right now because that big picture is wonky.

[00:34:59]CCK CCK very nice look. Um CVS I think it has earnings though. Oh, it has earnings in a few days. Oh, are we switching to the longs? I'm sorry. Right.

[00:35:12]>> Yeah, I just switched to longs with the first one being CCK.

[00:35:15]>> CCK. Gotcha.

[00:35:16]>> CCK. Yes. And um um CVS. I like CVS.

[00:35:26]>> You've been liking CVS for a while.

[00:35:28]>> And look what it's been doing.

[00:35:30]>> Yeah. No wonder it's >> going straight. It's going up in a nice trend. Hog. Hog. Hog. Hog. Every time I think I read the ticker symbol, I think about Dukes of Hazards. Uh Boss Hog. I used to love that show. It's a great show and I every time every time I read Hog, I think about Boss Hog.

[00:35:47]>> They should they should they should remake that that series. It was too funny.

[00:35:51]>> Um ACC.

[00:35:55]Now, I went through a lot of pain in finding you stocks. It wasn't easy to find longs, but I actually found you some good longs. This is a nice long.

[00:36:05]Uh, CH HRW. That's a nice looking long right there. C, C chw court.

[00:36:15]That's actually a really nice looking um, that's actually a really nice look right there.

[00:36:31]That's a very nice look. Let's see how the options are. Uh monthly options only curses. They're not bad. They're not bad. Liquidity is low, but the market maker's playing ball. He's not being an ass.

[00:36:43]It's a nice This is a nice look. Real nice look, actually.

[00:36:48]Surprised to find that in this diamond in the rough, so to speak. E notice a lot of pharmaceuticals and healthc care stocks today to the upside. One to a customer. one to a customer.

[00:37:04]NSP outsourcing stock. This is an interesting one. NSP BLBD.

[00:37:14]A little sloppy price action, but you know, auto manufacturing. What What is this Bluebird Corporation? What do they do? Does anybody know? Bluebird.

[00:37:24]>> Don't they don't they make the uh the big school buses? They're called Bluebirds. Those yellow.

[00:37:29]>> Is that Is that what it is? Okay. Okay.

[00:37:31]I got you. Gotcha. I got you. Bus transports. Okay. Cool.

[00:37:36]Matt, I may need a little caffeine, my friend.

[00:37:39]>> Just a little, Matt. [laughter] >> Yeah, just a little. ESA, what a again healthcare. Health care. Have you noticed noticing a pattern here?

[00:37:49]>> Healthcare. These are these stocks look a lot better than this healthcare. Uh, and then XYZ, which I think I already mentioned to you, but I like I like XYZ.

[00:37:57]>> Yeah, it's perfect. Thank you.

[00:38:02]So, this is their Dr. Pepper wannabe.

[00:38:04]It's called Dr. Zevia. [laughter] Dr. Zevia.

[00:38:09]>> How does it measure up?

[00:38:10]>> Um, it doesn't taste like Dr. Pepper, but it tastes really good. If that makes sense. It's like a >> As long as it tastes good, that's the key.

[00:38:20]>> Okay, those are my watch list for the day. Now, I want to turn your attention I want to turn your attention to Zach's. Now, you're probably thinking, Roger, why you you you work for a research company. Why are you showing us another research company? I'll explain to you why. I found Okay, so you got to hear this story. You see this guy right here?

[00:38:45]He he figured out he figured out that Factset, the company Facts Set does really good research for stocks earnings. They cost a lot and I don't really use them. I use them maybe I referred to it maybe 30 times a year max, right? Which isn't all that much. And they're really they're really like they they don't justify the cost. Uh but I guess they they they're a fundamental research company, so they do. So this guy pretty much whenever Fact Set comes up with comes out with something for free, he just copies it and puts it on here and at least he used to give credit to Fact Set. But um fact this is all from Fact Set all of it. So I want to show you guys this and I want to kind of delve into it. Okay, it's really the best research on earnings that I've ever found in my life because the way they do it, it it just intuitively makes really good sense to me. Okay.

[00:39:43]The only downside he updates it like once every he updates it like twice a week during earnings but still for our purposes that's more than enough. Okay.

[00:39:53]So second or second season has started off strong. Many S&P reporting this week. Two companies Micron and Nvidia are massive contributors to tech sectors growth. That's very interesting information. So earnings for them are now I thought it was 24% but now it's 25.3%.

[00:40:11]Let close enough. That's just crazy in my opinion. And revenue supposed to go up 11.9%.

[00:40:19]Which is very high too. I think uh you and I were talking about this yesterday, Raleigh. The revenue number.

[00:40:25]>> Yep.

[00:40:26]>> 11.9 11.9 >> 11.9 was the Okay.

[00:40:29]>> 11.9 25.3 and 11.9.

[00:40:36]>> All right.

[00:40:38]Um let's continue.

[00:40:41]So, we're off to a strong earning season. I don't think we have enough to be really strong. Uh, we have 85 S&P 500 companies reporting this week and then next week we have, I think, over 100. By the end of next week, we're going to have a really good idea of where we stand. Okay. Um, and again, we know where we're, you know, we have, uh, uh, we still early in the stage with results for roughly 10% of the S&P members.

[00:41:07]Here's how we're looking so far.

[00:41:10]um total for this quarter uh is expected to increase 25 point something right and so far so far if you and this is what I wanted to know if you exclude if you exclude tech remember this is what I really wanted to know this is why I went here because I really wanted to dig deep into this if you exclude the tech sector you're looking at 14.1 versus 25.3. So that's that's that's quite a bit. That's quite a bit even even that's a lot for non tech. So I'm a little skeptical. Don't really care about I don't really care about um energy sector >> um at all. Now Max 7, they're looking at an increase. Listen to this folks. 28.7% versus 25.1.

[00:42:07]Okay, that's huge. That's huge. So, I don't know. I don't know. Um I don't know. I don't know. So, again, how how are we going to do? How are we doing so far? Well, as with the second quarter, tech sector has outsized the impact. Again, total SEC earnings are expected to increase 40% from the same period a year ago and 18% higher revenue.

[00:42:33]Um excluding tech, it would be 12.7, which is still high. Um now contri contribution for Micron and Nvidia is significant. So we really have to keep an eye to keep an eye on those stocks. So good good information. Now where are we here through Friday July 17th? We've already seen this is this is not counting this week. We've seen 10% of the S&P 500.

[00:43:03]So far the re results are up 48% from and revenue up 15%.

[00:43:12]So we're like we're really doing great right now on the 10% of the stocks that have reported we're doing amazingly well.

[00:43:21]What can I tell you? Um amazingly well.

[00:43:25]Unusually strong earnings.

[00:43:27]>> Am I wrong, Roger? Have those been largely financials? They lead the earnings, right?

[00:43:31]>> They do. They do. So far they and there's been a few large caps and so forth, but but overall overall uh they've been from the financials. Yes.

[00:43:40]And the numbers have been amazing. Now I keep an eye to have to keep an eye on Micron and we're going to have to keep an eye on Nvidia. Those are the two big chip stocks that are rocking the world.

[00:43:50]But so far we're doing really good. We have 10%. And again, if you guys like this type of research um uh fact set, that's where they get all their they don't they don't they don't research themselves. They get it from fact the best research if you're into that. I don't it's just it's not my thing. I'm not a fundamental guy. But um it's interesting nonetheless. There's no doubt.

[00:44:15]>> Yeah. And again, I don't mind giving credit to to you know where credit is due and they they they definitely definitely definitely the um >> and Roger on the last quarter I I please please correct me if I'm wrong. I seem to remember you saying something along the lines of if you looked at earnings less technology.

[00:44:35]The rest of the market basically underperformed against their expectations >> by Yeah. It was like like I don't quote me but it was like let me give you an example. They were looking at say 12% and they got like 11.1 or something like that.

[00:44:48]>> Okay. So it was [clears throat] minor.

[00:44:50]Yeah, >> it was minor but still that's important.

[00:44:52]But and I don't remember if it was 12.

[00:44:54]It might have been 11, 12, 13. It was somewhere in that ballpark. But I remember they were off by like almost a full bait a full point. They were not they did not outperform and but for tech they would have not done well. Now they're looking at 14 point something which is really high. Um so again we'll see we'll see we'll see what happens but uh I wanted you guys to understand that even without even without the technology they're expecting quite a lot quite a lot. Okay. All right. Do we have any questions before we move on to the next segment?

[00:45:26]>> No, just incredible commentary, Roger.

[00:45:29]Oh, good. People really really enjoying and getting high value off of your presentation here.

[00:45:35]>> No, that's good. I want to make sure we uh and I'm not looking at the chat >> and my neck is feeling better. I I figured that the better I feel and the less I look at politics, the less the less I strain my neck and the less I focus on politics, the more productive I will be.

[00:45:48]>> There you go. [laughter] There's the keys to longevity right there.

[00:45:53]Exactly. Those are my keys to longevity.

[00:45:54]I just want to check on Apple real quick. Apple looks like it's just sitting like an Apple. Dell Dell is still going up. Look at that.

[00:46:02]>> I know. I know. Raj, >> we still have We still have >> We're pulling for you. All you in the pit. We're pulling for you.

[00:46:08]>> Yeah. Yeah. We still have a position. I I would feel much better if Dell went uh went right here. I would feel much much better if Dell went right. Right. Right.

[00:46:17]Right.

[00:46:18]>> You're close to your entry, I think, aren't you? You're getting >> uh No, no, our entry was like right here.

[00:46:23]>> Okay, I got you.

[00:46:24]>> I mean, we're relatively speaking when you It's a $400 stock, so you know, it we're like right here somewhere. We We're the stock moves 30 over $30 a day on average.

[00:46:37]>> Okay.

[00:46:38]>> So, we're we're only we're less than one day away in terms of uh we just need one good non-random move higher in the market and we'll be there. Um, and again, we'll see what happens. We'll see what happens. Um, but uh, I want to and so any I can move on to the next segment. No questions. I feel kind of like I'm flying blind because I can't look at the chat. So, I'm >> No, we're doing good, brother.

[00:47:01]>> Okay. Okay. Great. So, let me talk to you guys a little bit more about um about the sniper. Okay. Now a lot of folks are asking me why is why is volume why is intraday volume so important. So I want to explain to you how volume comes into all of this and and this is really really important.

[00:47:26]The majority of trading action that you guys see on Wall Street is random.

[00:47:33]There's not a lot of non-random movement in the market. the alos just looking for price action. Uh the institutional traders buying and selling all day. It just causes random eb and flow in price which is what you get. Now when you see volume beyond average that means there's something beyond random happening to that stock. That means either someone is aggre is so so so let me explain. When you don't have high volume, you have remember you always have a buyer or a seller. Okay?

[00:48:11]Whenever you have no volume, you have a meeting of the minds.

[00:48:17]Everybody's calm. There's peace between they're they're smoking the peace pipe.

[00:48:21]The buyers and the sellers, okay? The bulls and the bears.

[00:48:25]when you start seeing volume, okay, there's a strong disagreement between the buyers and the sellers. One of them becomes aggressive.

[00:48:37]Now, when I say the word aggressive, you may be thinking, well, what does he mean aggressive? I really mean aggressive.

[00:48:44]Aggression doesn't mean violent.

[00:48:45]Aggression means they be they be they aggressively start behaving aggressively. They become aggressive towards the other side. The bulls become aggressive towards the bears or the bears become aggressive towards the bulls. One side becomes aggressive. Not passive aggressive. Aggressive. Passive aggressive is where they do all their trading after hours. That was a joke.

[00:49:06]Um, get it? Passive aggressive after hours.

[00:49:10]I thought that was a good one.

[00:49:13]Anyways um but but uh they become aggressive. One side becomes aggressive.

[00:49:18]When one side becomes aggressive, trading is no longer random and and at the same time you have an imbalance between buyers and sellers. Now the only time we make money is where we see an imbalance between buyers and sellers. If there's a balance between buyers and sellers, then then in the meeting of the mind, they're not they're not arguing about anything. They're not confused with each other about anything. Then price is just going to flow like this because for every buyer you have a seller. For every seller you have a buyer. When one of them gets aggressive, right? Or when the buyers versus the sellers get aggressive, you start seeing a strong strong buying. Well, what happens when you see strong buying? That means the buyers are getting aggressive and the sellers are stepping to the side.

[00:50:06]They can't they can't for every buy for every buyer there's no longer a seller.

[00:50:13]For every 10 buyers there's a seller.

[00:50:15]You understand? So there becomes a imbalance between supply and demand. Now what I'm explaining to you is very very very basic auction theory. But you need to understand this basic principle in order in order to to to to become a better trader. If you go to an auction, for example, right, and there's there's a uh a rug that you really like, that's something they sell all the time at auctions, rugs, okay?

[00:50:45]And there's 10 people on this side, right? And they're bidding against each other for the rug. And you know, these people kind of like it and they're like, "Yeah, $5 more." They're agreeing with each other. They're like, "Okay, $5 more, $5, whatever." And then somebody really wants that rug, like they really want that rug. They're going to become aggressive. They're going to say, " $5, no, $10, $10, no, $15." So, what eventually is going to happen is there's going to be a trend because there's a there's an aggression between either buyers and sellers. And what I'm talking about can happen with sellers, too. But finding those aggress aggressive periods where there's there's actual there's something is actually happening is the key to us making money. Now if you notice most of the stocks that we look at you know how I always always talk about stocks being angled stocks having an angle that means there's a clear opinion between the buyers and the sellers. They're not just kind of like yeah $50 is okay. Well, how about 51?

[00:51:52]Okay. How about 49? That's okay. How about No, no, no. They're not if you wash it. They have a strong opinion about price. 55, 60, 65. And the sellers are like, "No, no, we can't keep up with this." And the buyers keep buying and the and the stock goes higher. So the more opportunities that you find where where there is an imbalance between buyers and sellers, the more non-random and more um purposeful directional your results will be. I'm trying to really dummy this down so you guys understand the essence of what I'm talking about.

[00:52:29]So how does the sniper fall into all of this, right? How does the sniper fall into this? Well, several ways.

[00:52:38]First off, if you don't see a lot of signals during the day, right? If you don't see a lot of signals during, look at the last time we had a short signal.

[00:52:46]We had a short signal last time at 12:25. Okay, what does that tell us?

[00:52:51]Just that it's telling us that sellers overall are not aggressive right now in the market. They're not aggressive at all. And but buyers are aggressive right now. You're seeing this is there's nothing random about this right here. Absolutely nothing random about this. Okay. So, so buyers there's there's clearly a lot more buyers coming in on the buy side than sellers. It's it's very very clear.

[00:53:25]>> And these are institutions. Roger. We're >> This is institutional volume. Yeah. When I say volume, I'm Okay. So, when I say volume, I mean institutional buying or selling. So anytime I use the word volume, it's synonymous with institutional buying or selling. So understand that volume means institutional buying or selling. So the more stocks you see on this list popping at you or the more specific stocks you see on this list popping up at you, the more the more there is an imbalance.

[00:53:56]Now, if you see equal number or just about the same number of sells to buys or, you know, three sells, four buys and all that, which happens sometimes, you've got a pretty good balance between buyers and sellers in the overall market. But when you see one sale and all of these buys, that means there's there there's very little selling coming into the market. That means buyers are becoming pretty aggressive in relationship to the sellers. You should probably be looking to the long side.

[00:54:21]Now, more specifically, what about this?

[00:54:24]What about this volume? when you start seeing volume above a certain percentile like like MT for example. Okay, look at this there. Look at this price action and look look at all the volume here and look at look at this volume at lunchtime.

[00:54:43]Now this is this is this is uh uh what is this is 6 689% volume of the average volume. So volume is six times higher during this five minute period than any other time of the day than than the last 50 bars averaged.

[00:55:03]Okay, that's a lot of volume, especially midday. That's a lot of volume. That means there's something happening here.

[00:55:10]There's clearly an imbalance between the buyers and sellers favoring the buy side.

[00:55:16]Okay, the ProTrader, excuse me, the Sniper is the best tool that I've seen that shows you which stocks are clearly showing a bias between the buyers and the sellers.

[00:55:31]The aggre the aggressive there is no there is no I mean unless you're looking at a one minute chart or something like that which I don't recommend. It has a lot of noise. This is the clearest way to see a division a clear division between the buyers and the sellers. This is why every time I show you a ticker on this on here, there's a clear trend. For example, look, clear trend, right? Look, clear trend, right? It's not just moving like this. There's a clear trend higher.

[00:56:00]Let's continue.

[00:56:02]Same same stock.

[00:56:05]Not a clear trend, but look, there's there's there's no trend right here.

[00:56:09]Zero trend. Let's see. Clear trend. And right now the market is not like going crazy. Again, same same not much there.

[00:56:18]But you could see what I'm talking about. You could see with a lot of these when there's when it really pops, you could see that there's a you could see that there's a big pop in price. The point is you should only be engaging with a stock on an intraday basis when you see higher volume. If you now you could if you're looking at a daily chart, you don't need the higher volume.

[00:56:40]It's nice when volume is going up, but you don't need volume going higher if you're looking at a large cap stock. The reason you don't need volume with a large cap stock is because volume um volume goes like this. Look, let me show you.

[00:56:57]Na naturally naturally volume goes like this. Look.

[00:57:02]In out in out in out in out. So if you happen to be looking at a large cap stock on a day like this and volume's going out, oh it it doesn't have high, it doesn't mean anything because it's not volume doesn't just continuously come in like this on a daily basis. On an intraday basis, you want volume to be like this. Of course, you want it to just continue piling in.

[00:57:26]But even even a stock that institutions are buying and long-term they're not going to if they have to buy for example $50 million a hundred million 200 half a billion dollars worth of that stock they're not going to be buying it continuously they're going to buy some leave leave it alone buy some leave it alone buy some leave it alone. So when you're looking at a daily chart, it's much harder and and and also not as necessary to gauge volume, especially if you're trading a large cap because it's very hard to decipher when volume at at that moment is coming in or out of that stock. But when you're when you're trading on a fiveminute chart, you're looking for that raw volume. You're literally looking for that spurt of volume. So it's a different story. So when we looking at these, we're looking at the fiveminut basis. Okay. Now, when you see higher volume and higher price, one of the keys about these options that we've picked is look at the delta.

[00:58:23]Delta.33 delta 38 delta.32 delta 38 again. Uh here, let's see some more 36. Now, why am I not picking stocks with a delta of 75?

[00:58:45]Stocks with a delta of 0 75 or even stocks with a delta of 050 that are at the money. The closer a stock is to the money, the more expensive the option is, the less implied volatility will will balloon and shrink. It'll be less sensitive to implied volatility and it'll be more sensitive to the price of the stock. So if I buy an option with a delta of say 75, that option is going to behave very similarly sort of similarly to to the stock. It'll it'll move alongside for every dollar the stock moves. This the the option will move 75 and then more and more and more assuming that stock continues moving. But um but on the other hand if I buy an option that has a delta of.35 like these options what what we will find is that those that those options they tend to balloon excessively because there is no remember I said delta of 7 the option will behave like the stock well with the delta of30 there is no intrinsic value there is no the option does not entail or or or hold any part of that stock. Do you understand? So again, the deeper you go, the more expensive the option, the more that the option will be like the stock.

[01:00:08]The more the cheaper the option, the more it'll behave like a lottery ticket.

[01:00:12]These are lottery tickets and we're buying them 3 4 days before expiration, 5 days, 1 day, 2 days before expiration.

[01:00:20]They're out of the money and they're not expensive. The market maker does not believe they're they're going to be worth anything in the end. Everybody believes they're going to expire worthless. And they may and we really don't care. But when you have an option that has a delta of.35 and there's institutional buying at 600% coming in, those options, the market maker is going to start ballooning those options because there's interest in those options. Not only because the stock is going up, but because there's interest in those options. Remember, he wrote them off. So, let me give you guys a really good analogy. I'm going to give you a really good analogy, okay? Like great analogy. Um, let's say you work for a department store like TJ Maxx or Ross. Um, has everybody been has everybody been to a TJ Maxx or Ross type of store?

[01:01:16]You don't need to be a fashion a fashion icon. Yeah, you don't have to be a Has everybody been to one of those stores? Have you guys uh have you guys uh um have you guys ever seen they have like a a discount rack? Like Well, the whole store is like a discount rack, but they actually have like a discount rack that's like their closeout rack. Okay.

[01:01:38]And the closeout rack has like stock clothing that's been marked down like 75% 95%. They're literally like giving it away. Okay. Okay. Okay. And you can get like the craziest bargains there, but nobody really wants anything that's there. If they did, it would cost more. So imagine imagine tomorrow morning. Let's say that Ross store or TJ Maxx, whatever you want it to be, it opens at 10:00 in the morning.

[01:02:07]Okay, imagine at 9:30 a line starts forming outside of the store. The salesman goes in there every day, like 15 minutes early to open the store, and he's like, "What are you What are you all What are you What is this? We're not selling concert tickets. We're selling cheap clothing. Like, what are you not going to find brand new Nikes here, all right? This is like old stuff. There's never any lines. Okay, maybe on Christmas and New Year's there's a line and it's neither. It's like August. So the guy's like, "What are you all here for?" And somebody says, "Hey, hey, let me tell you something. You've guys you you guys like accidentally put this this this shirt on like the the the throwaway rack, whatever you call it, the deep discount rack. And uh and this and this uh and this store, this this shirt is like an $800 shirt, and you're selling it for like $35.

[01:03:00]Okay. So, all of a sudden, all of a sudden, I promise you, in that 15 minutes before anybody can get between the closing door and the opening store, that shirt will already cost more.

[01:03:14]There will be amplification on that shirt. You understand?

[01:03:19]So, that's what we're trying to do. So, we're trying to buy shirts that have been completely marked off, closed off, aren't worth anything. They're expected to be thrown in the in the burner in 3 days and we're buying them as institutions are showing interest in that stock.

[01:03:38]So, it doesn't just it's not you're not just getting higher prices. You're not just getting higher prices on the options because of the move. You're getting higher prices on the options because you're throwing the market maker for a loop. The market maker was expecting to burn these up in the garbage can. He's like, he already called the Goodwill and asked them to pick these clothes up. You know what I'm saying? And all of a sudden, uh, they're now they're now starting to be like like Madonna wants to wear it, right? So, it went from being in the garbage can to Madonna wanting to wear it. And so, it's like, whoa, whoa, whoa, hold on. Turn off the turn off the furnace. So, I wanted you guys to understand the how volume. Today, my lesson for today, we're going to go into a different room right now, right?

[01:04:24]>> Yes.

[01:04:24]>> We have a special presentation today.

[01:04:26]I'm I'm I'm doing a special presentation in a in a bigger room for everybody. Um I wanted everybody to join there. But today we covered the current market environment, why you shouldn't trust the tech sector yet. It's why it's not ready yet, no matter how good it looks, till it gets above the 50, the purposefulness and using volume in your trading, and how there's a balance between imbalance between buyers and sellers and that's the only time you should engage. And we also talked about the reason why out of the money options get amplified and how we could take advantage of it. Now would you guys say that we covered a lot of ground today in a short period of time and we actually learned something and got some value out of this? Post yes in the chat. I'm going to open it up for about 5 seconds.

[01:05:11]>> Yeah, absolutely. Roger. And folks, I am going to also be posting here for you uh a link to the uh recording of this presentation because this is a live presentation and you can go to our Vimeo replay library in about an hour or so and this should be posted for you to definitely review. And as Roger has mentioned, both he and I are going to be signing off here in about a minute because we are going to be moving to another room where we're going to be doing a presentation on the sniper scalper to a broader audience. But if you would like to join us there, I just put the link to that in the chat panel.

[01:05:49]It's roderscott.comfrontrun and you can join us all there for that.

[01:05:56]And with that, Roger, I'm going to leave at this point in time, move to the other room, and I'll catch you in a couple of minutes. Folks, thank you so much for coming today, and I look forward to seeing you tomorrow at 12:00 noon for the next edition of the VIP Trade Room.

[01:06:12]All right, folks. Please go to the next to the room. We're going to we'll all see each other in just a few minutes in the other room. Okay, bye, guys. Thank you for being here, and I really really wanted you guys to learn this. This is important information. I'll see you guys in just a few minutes in the other room.

[01:06:25]Don't miss out. It'll be worth it.

[01:06:29]All right.