Watch LIVE: Arizona primary elections tracked and analyzed by The Hill, DDHQ Data Nerds

[00:04:57]Well, good Tuesday evening everybody live from the Hill Studios in Washington DC. This is the Hills decision desk 26 data nerds. As the kids would say, we are so back. We miss you guys. Hope you are uh doing well. It's been a minute.

[00:05:11]Uh we are back tonight talking about the Arizona primary. In about 30 minutes or so, polls will begin to close in Arizona. We are watching another test of a Donald Trump endorsed candidate for governor and perhaps a seat that could determine whether Democrats or Republicans have control of the House come November. We will break down all of it with a group of friends who you are very much used to at this point. So, let's jump right in. Joining me first of all is uh Jeffrey Skellyy of DDHQ fame.

[00:05:43]Jeffrey, good evening to you, my friend.

[00:05:45]So glad to see you. Um let's just start on the Republican side of things. As I mentioned, you've got a Donald Trump endorsed candidate uh for governor uh going up against a uh sitting congressman uh who uh probably agrees with him a lot uh but may not be as MAGA uh as uh Donald Trump would like. And then in Arizona's first district, you got a former football player uh seen as the frontr runner uh to win that seat and go up against a Democrat. As I mentioned, a seat crucial to both parties hopes of retaining uh control of Congress if you're a Republican in the House or gaining back the House if you are a Democrat. Which one do you want to start with, Jeffrey? Because both of these are juicy races.

[00:06:26]>> Sure. Well, we can start with the governor's race. I mean, it's it's the one that I think people will e either be most familiar with or most interested in since it is a major statewide race. Uh, basically, you've got on on the Democratic side, you have incumbent Governor Katie Hobbs. Uh, she's unopposed. So, um, the Republicans are battling out to for the right to face her. Uh, she's seeking a second term after very narrowly winning in 2022 against Carrie Lake, who people may remember also lost the 2024 Senate race in Arizona. Uh so this time around on the Republican side you have Congress two congressmen uh Andy Biggs uh who is the the favorite tonight. He has President Trump's endorsement. And then you have David Schwiker uh who has run an interesting campaign uh in the sense that when ever since he got in, I don't think there's been much expectation that he actually was going to have a a real shot at winning. Uh and and it is fascinating. Bigs is a a very staunch member of the Freedom Caucus considered pretty hard right. Schwiker used to be a member of the Freedom Caucus but is no longer. Uh, and I think at the end of the day, Schwher was maybe in a position where he might have been uh, a conservative but a little, as you said, put it a little less MAGA alternative.

[00:07:41]And that just didn't really come to pass. And I think the other interesting wrinkle here is that there was actually another major candidate in this race, uh, Karen Taylor Robson, who had very narrowly lost the 2022 gubernatorial primary to Carrie Lake. And she had President Trump's endorsement way back in December of 2024 for this seat. But essentially, there was kind of a conservative revolt in Arizona over over Trump endorsing her. They didn't because she was viewed as actually sort of less of a MAGA candidate. And so he ended up co-endorsing Biggs in the spring of 2025 and by early this year she decided to drop out. She felt like she didn't have much of a chance of actually winning. So there have been a few interesting uh twists and turns along the way.

[00:08:21]>> Uh so this is a statewide race obviously uh Jeffrey in terms of uh the primary on the Republican side of things. What counties are you looking at? Where are we going to maybe get an early indication uh in terms of which of these candidates has the upper hand in this race?

[00:08:36]Oh, well, I think if you're talking about Arizona, you know, at the end of the day, so much is in Maricopa County, which is where Phoenix is. Uh, that's true on the Democratic side, that's true on the Republican side. Uh, I believe it's about 60% of the statewide vote usually, uh, in in general elections.

[00:08:51]Um, so maybe it's a hair well, you know, Maricopa actually very narrowly went for Trump in in 2024. Uh, it is it is a pretty 50-50 county. actually winning Maricopa you in a general election usually means that you carried the state. Although I will note that on the Democratic side, you know, you would also look at Puma County where Tucson is is is one of the bluer counties in the state or at least the mo the bluest heavily populated county and second after Maricopa. But I think Maricopa is going to be uh a main focus here. And of course the challenge there is that uh it is definitely a county where it would be really nice if we had sort of live precinct data because there are so many communities. I mean Phoenix is one of the 10 biggest cities in the country.

[00:09:35]Maricopa is one of the most populous counties in the country. So there are a lot of different parts to it. There's obviously the city of Phoenix but then you have so many other communities uh you know all kinds of suburban and ex-urban communities uh where there's a lot of variation across it. Um, and it's fun to look at, but it's it's not as easy on a live election night.

[00:09:54]>> Um, moving on to uh that first congressional district on the Republican side of things. I mentioned former NFL player uh Jay Feelely who has President Trump's endorsement scene a bit as a front runner here given that he has the fundraising advantage, but Joseph Chaplick, Jean Trobo, both going to give him a run for his money. Um, you've got Chaplain, a state rep, uh, who feels like he is the conservative for this moment and more of a a conservative who is really ingrained in the MAGA movement. Uh, and then you got John Trabo who sort of little Reagan-esque, you know, businessfriendly uh, Republican, sort of seen as an alternative to maybe Jay Feelely's uh, celebrity and, you know, the the legislative politics that that uh, Chaplain offers. Uh this is also, you know, that Scottsdale, Paradise Valley area. So a lot of voters, a lot of educated voters. What are you looking out there? Is this is this Jay Feelely's race to lose ultimately?

[00:10:45]>> Yes, I think so. I mean, look, Trump, President Trump endorsed Feelely.

[00:10:48]Feelely has raised a ton of money. He's somebody who's been uh wanting to sort of run for office for a while. In fact, he initially was running in the fifth district when where Andy Biggs is. uh and then went bigs uh basically for various reasons he ended up getting into the first district race. Uh and you know those are they're right next to each other uh those seats and it's all in the Phoenix metro area. Um but this is a very competitive seat. I I think at the end of the day as you pointed out this is this is one of the key battlegrounds uh in the 2026 House race uh because it is a seat that President Trump carried about 51 to 48 in 2024. David Schwher.

[00:11:27]This is Schwert's old seat. Uh so I should note that those open seats, the fifth and the first are are Republican or currently Republican held seats, but this is actually a very competitive one.

[00:11:36]Schweer won about 5248 uh in in 2024.

[00:11:41]And so this is Scottsdale. It's very affluent, highly educated. Uh and but it has been trending Scottsdale at least that part of the district has been trending a little to the left over the years. Um which has made this more competitive turf overall. Uh and then on the the the fifth congressional district race on the GOP side of things, you got Mark Lamb, sheriff, former sheriff, um in Penal County, uh going up against Daniel Keenan. Uh this is another test of Trump's endorsement power. This one though, a little bit different because it's a Trump endorsed candidate who has some uh political baggage. Uh we could say he's been accused of some sexual misconduct uh in in the past, denies the allegations. The president sticking with him. uh what are you looking at in in that race uh there in the fifth district?

[00:12:28]>> Yeah, so when Mark Lamb got into this race, I think he was viewed very quickly as the as the favorite. Uh for folks who don't know, Lamb uh finished actually ran a relatively competitive race against Carrie Lake in 2024 for the US Senate primary on the Republican side.

[00:12:43]Uh Lake was expected to win, but Lamb in the end got about 40% of the vote, which was considered a pretty good performance considering Lake had all the advantages in that race in terms of money, President Trump's endorsement, a lot of other things. So Lamb impressed and and it was, you know, it was seemed likely that he was probably going to run for something else down the line. And so here he is. So he was the favorite here.

[00:13:02]And at the end of the day, the only opponent he has is Daniel Keenan, who's a self-funding businessman. And I think until you know a few weeks ago, we would have probably said, "Oh, Lamb is gonna maybe walk to this thing." But uh things have come out essentially allegations about uh Lamb sexing with with women who are not his wife. Sounds a little Graham Platneresque in that way. Uh but but the other allegation that is perhaps more serious is that you know as the former sheriff of Penel County uh he uh the allegation is that he essentially threatened to to sick law enforcement on one of the women in question that he had been corresponding with uh if she posted about their correspondence online. Um which would obviously be uh an abuse of power if you know to say the least. Um and and so that has really kind of thrown the race in doubt. I think also you're talking about a guy who who is Mormon, a member of the Church of Latter-day Saints. So, a lot of question marks uh you know, this raises a lot of red flags uh in the LDS community. Uh and so there's there's a lot churning here that could potentially create a surprise tonight uh the way things have shaken out.

[00:14:12]>> We got to talk about Democrats uh as well in that first congressional district. On the Democratic side of things, you got a former Republican in 2024 candidate, uh, Marlene Galain Woods running against Amish Shaw, who's a physician and former state legislator.

[00:14:26]That's interesting because we always look at Arizona as a swing state, of course, and this is uh a Trump endorsed uh, you know, test in a swing state, which is not something that we do get very often. But here you have, uh, Democrats uh, trying to take control of this seat, hopefully regain control of Congress. Um, anything stand out when you look at at those two candidates or are they maybe going to face a bit of an uphill challenge uh to to ultimately win this seat?

[00:14:55]>> Well, I think either of them could potentially win it in November uh if there is something somewhat of a swing to the left uh nationally. You know, it's a place where it could be felt in Arizona. You know, if you think about what happened with Arizona, but from from the 2020 2020 presidential election to the 2024 presidential election, nationally, the country swung about six points to the right and so did Arizona.

[00:15:19]Uh if you look at the margin, you know, President President Biden won it in 2020 by a little less than a half percentage point and then President Trump won it by 5 and a half percentage points. So that's about a six roughly a six point swing which was very similar to the country as a whole. Um it's not always that uniform to be clear, but in that particular case and so I think when I look at this district, you know what's also interesting is that both Amish Shaw uh the former state representative and Marlene Galon Woods, they both ran for this seat in 2024 uh in and finished in a very close three-way primary. And Shaw actually won that nomination and went on to very narrowly lose to Schwer uh in in this seat. So now it's an open seat.

[00:15:55]Shaw is back. Golon Woods is back, but this time around the DC has actually sort of put its put its uh its foot in the race a little bit, if you will, uh has has made an entry uh by actually spending and coordinating with Golan Woods to try to help her out. Uh and that has I think rubbed some folks the wrong way. We've seen the DC do this in a few different places and it not necessarily go over well so far in this election cycle. Um so it'll be interesting to see I think at the end of the day Shaw and Golan Woods, one of them will will come out of it. So, it'll be interesting to see given that sort of national versus local dynamic uh and whether or not that makes a big difference.

[00:16:33]>> Yeah, look, the the the DC certainly finding itself in the middle of this ongoing debate within the Democratic party on establishment/experience versus sort of new energy, new kids on the block, young progressive. We're seeing that play out in the fourth district there in Arizona in the Democratic primary. Greg Stanton, the incumbent and establishment Democrats.

[00:16:52]Establishment Democrat against Kai Newkerk, uh, who says the party needs more fighters, a word we often hear, uh, these days and someone who can be populist and confrontational, anti-establishment.

[00:17:05]Uh, it sounds like, minus maybe some of the baggage, Grand Platner by by another name in terms of the approach. Uh but in a swing state like Arizona and of course we are certainly looking forward uh to Michigan next month. How does that establishment versus young progressive upstart debate vote play out?

[00:17:27]>> Yeah. So the fourth congressional district is another seat in the Phoenix area. Uh most a lot of the congressional districts as you would as you would imagine in Arizona are uh at least partly in the Phoenix metro area, but this is this is one that takes in uh Mesa and some other areas um and and part of Phoenix. And so Greg Stanton, I mean, this is a seat that that Kla Harris carried by about seven percentage points. So, you know, at the end of the day, it's one that is not expected to be competitive in the fall, especially in a in a somewhat Democraticleaning uh environment, which does seem to be the case. How Democratic leaning of course remains to be seen the way things are with the generic ballot right now.

[00:18:04]Uh but this is certainly not as blue of a seat as some of the ones we've seen talked about in places like Denver, Colorado in the first congressional district at the end of June or some of those districts in New York City a week earlier on June 23rd that we saw more leftwing candidates win primaries. And this is this is not nearly as blue and could be competitive under some circumstances. Um, so I think you know the good news for Stanton as an incumbent is that Newkerk, Kai Newkerk, his progressive challenger, hasn't raised very much money. And also there's been sort of a a series of negative headlines about him in the last sort of in the leadup to this primary uh regarding perhaps some some past interactions with women uh stuff that we've, you know, we've we've heard about this in in some other context and obviously it brings Graham Platner to mind. And so I think that's that's a question mark for Newkerk uh and whether or not he can actually really make this interesting tonight and and you know, we'll see. Um I I think Stanton is viewed as the favorite. Uh but you know, I'm not going to rule out any surprises the way things have been going for uh for for Democratic incumbents and the establishment more generally.

[00:19:11]>> Uh you mentioned Maricopa County and just the how much of of the actual vote comes uh from Maricopa. in your experience, given that it is a large county, does that mean it takes them a while to count their votes or are they pretty good about counting those early ballots, those mail-in ballots on election night?

[00:19:27]>> So, yeah, Maricopa will will take a while. Um, folks may remember, I mean, look, Arizona's been very much at the epicenter of of controversies and and claims about the 2020 presidential election uh since basically the night of. Um, >> we we remember the videos. Well, >> yes. And so obviously that that has been a throughine from from then to today.

[00:19:53]President Trump still claiming that you know there were there were uh you know there was something illegitimate about the result in Arizona. Maricopa County officials defending the the vote count.

[00:20:03]Republicans in Maricopa County defending the vote count. Um very a very uh uh fraught situation and and that is certainly a thing that has popped up. I think even an example in the Secretary of State's race on the Republican side um for the right to face uh Adrien Fontes, the Democratic incumbent there, you have a bit of that dynamic too where you have a Republican who's a bit more like look, there's probably things we need to fix, but the result was fair >> and then you have, you know, a candidate embra more embracing the the sort of 2020 stop the seal steel view of things.

[00:20:36]Um and so in that sense like yeah Maricopa does take a bit and it is worth noting that a very large percentage uh the majority of of voters in Arizona do vote by mail and so that does create uh a bit of you know it just take vote by mail states inherently take longer uh even really well-run ones. So um that's that's just sort of a a fact of life here. I will say that look, we can also expect the Republican primary vote to not be as heavily vote by mail. Uh given uh sort of views on the right about vote by mail and and the you know the position Trump has taken on this uh has certainly influenced the the partisan split we see where Democrats are are more likely uh to to vote by mail whereas Republicans are more likely to vote day of. um that split is not as large as it was in the 2020 election or in the immediate aftermath in 2022, but it is still there nonetheless.

[00:21:32]>> Well, Jeffrey, given um that you know we've been talking about that that first district that could go a long way in terms of determining who ultimately has control of the House of Representatives.

[00:21:41]Can we take a look at the generic ballot here on July 21st?

[00:21:44]>> Yeah, sure. 2026 and see who you rather be uh you know with the midterms still a few months off but getting closer uh than we think for sure. What are you seeing in the numbers?

[00:21:56]>> Yeah, so right now in our polling average, Democrats are up by about four points. Uh this is rounded just for for people's uh simplicity, but it's like 3.6 I think is the exact number. Uh but that is on definitely on the low end of where it has been for Democrats over the last few months. you know, from roughly April through June, uh, Democrats led by about five to sometimes as much as seven percentage points in our in our average, but that has come down a bit. Uh, it was as low as three the other day. You know, look, these numbers bounce around a little bit, but I will say the fact of the matter that it's at about four now.

[00:22:29]There has been a recent narrowing and so I think the big question is, is that a long-term trend? Is that something we're going to continue to see as pollsters are increasingly asking likely voters or you know releasing results for likely voters and not just registered voters?

[00:22:43]Uh some pollsters are already doing that but many aren't. Uh so as we get closer to the election, pollsters will be trying to figure out who is likely who are who who are likely to vote at the end of the day. Now that can sometimes be a fraud exercise. Uh but I do think in a midterm election where the electorate overall is smaller than in a presidential election. And so in the presidential election, you're going to get a few more unlikely voters, so to speak, showing up uh than at a midterm election. Uh it is it is also sort of an important thing to keep in mind. And I, you know, I could see it sort of going both ways. I could see, we know, we have evidence that that Democrats are more motivated to vote. So maybe maybe likely voters are going to be somewhat more Democratic leaning. So maybe Democrats gain some as we get closer to the election. Uh at the same time, I I think you do have a situation where Republicans are trying to make the case that Democrats are too extreme. And while it is not the same thing, uh it does remind me at least a little bit of the 2022 cycle where you did have sort of a counterveailing wind. You had an unpopular Democratic president, but then you had the Dobs decision uh actually throw a little bit of a wrench, I think, into what was at the end of the day a slightly Republican leaning environment at the end of the day and could have been a lot more Republican leaning, I think, if the if Roie Wade had not been overturned. Uh and so that motivated Democrats. It also won over some independents who might have otherwise considered voting for the Republicans because they were unhappy with the incumbent president. Uh and so I guess the question here is I I don't know that uh you know the the Democratic socialist and and left-wing turn on among Democrats is necessarily going to reach that kind of level, but I do think Republicans are going to try. And so I'm interested to see uh whether or not they can sort of try to make that stick in a way that keeps some voters in the Republican camp who might have considered voting for Democrats under these circumstances. Yeah, just looking at at the chart there on your screen, I'm trying to sort of pinpoint the day and think of what was in the news cycle.

[00:24:34]Uh, so we went from sort of Democratic Socialist of America talk for a week and a half, two weeks, then there was the Graham Platiner situation and everything that came with that. Uh, and now we sort of swung back to the socialism claims.

[00:24:48]We're hearing, you know, claims of communism. Um, is it a combination of all of all of those things that is sort of bringing this closer together? Um, perhaps maybe we see it grow farther apart depending on what the economy does now that the the war has really sort of restarted in earnest.

[00:25:05]>> I think you just actually hit the nail on the head there, which is I think a lot had to do with the Iran the conflict with Iran tapering a bit. Uh, oil gas prices came down a little bit. They were still higher than people wanted, but they were not near quite as high as they had been at their peak. There wasn't kind of the constant barrage of news. I mean, for folks obviously who are who are paying a lot of attention to this, there was obviously a lot of news about Iran, but there wasn't news every day of like, oh, here's here's, you know, just as we've had in the last 24 to 48 hours of of uh, you know, attacks involving Americans either on the receiving end or giving end, uh, and and, uh, just more activity on that front, which I think is just bad politically for the president.

[00:25:46]And so, the more that's in the news, you saw you've seen gas prices kind of pop up again. I think all of that is bad for the president, bad for Republicans. And so I am interested to see if we see a reversion uh here in the next few weeks back to sort of what we saw in May and June particularly where that lead for Democrats grew uh around the time that things with Iran were really heating up.

[00:26:08]Um and I don't there wasn't I don't think that was a coincidence.

[00:26:11]>> All right, Jeffrey, we're going to let you go, man. Real quick, uh what other primaries are are you watching uh that are still on the calendar?

[00:26:18]>> Oh, man. And I mean, obviously, the Michigan race is is going to be a really big deal. I am very fascinated by the special primary in South Carolina with President Trump backing Darling Graham, but there being at least two other really notable candidates in the race, congressman, members of the House. Uh what is the dynamic there? I'm kind of guessing there's going to be a runoff on on August 25th and just sort of the dynamics of that and and whether or not uh Darling Graham, who seemed like a placeholder, can actually end up basically being positioned to win a full term.

[00:26:50]>> Yeah. Yeah. We got to get candidates chosen in in races that had already been won. When you think about South Carolina, you think about what may ultimately happen up in Maine uh with getting somebody to face off against Susan Collins. So, plenty more to watch even with November being right around the corner. Jeffrey, thank you so much, my friend, as always. Really appreciate your time. Uh, and we'll talk to you next primary night.

[00:27:10]>> Hey, thanks, Corey.

[00:27:12]>> All righty. Joining me now here in studio, Julia Mueller, campaign reporter for uh the Hill. Julia, thank you so much for joining us at As always. It's been a minute. We've had a week off, which I think everybody needed. Um, a lot has happened since we last spoke, since we were last counting votes here on a primary Tuesday night. You've been out there talking to strategists, talking to voters. What is the mood right now? Is it socialism, communism?

[00:27:38]Is it the war in Iran? Is it dims and disarray? What are some of the themes out there these days?

[00:27:44]>> Yeah. Well, I think definitely we're still in the big part of the conversation is this establishment versus, you know, progressive insurgent bids within the Democratic party. The party's still searching for its path forward. It's looking at the contours of individual states and individual races, trying to find candidates that are best suited to run in races that will give them a chance of taking control in the House and the Senate. Um, I think one big storyline that we've been following in the past couple weeks and days uh is what's happening in Maine uh after Graham Platner exited that race uh for the Senate and Maine Democrats, you know, sort of trying to chart a new path forward, find a unprecedented, you know, sort of process here to pick a new nominee. Um, and you know, I think that speaks to uh some of the chaos that's happening within the party right now as a broader theme.

[00:28:34]>> Well, you mentioned you mentioned chaos.

[00:28:36]Um it's it's interesting uh to to see it play out not just you know within the electorate and finding a candidate but the Twitter political influencers are having a bit of a time uh in that sort of establishment versus uh progressive uh debate uh depending on who you follow on X and on the other socials. Uh it is a civil war uh on social media these days. So we'll see ultimately how that plays out. Uh let's go ahead and bring in another friend Jerome Zhao uh prediction market expert. He's always looking at the kshi and the poly markets of the world to see where a race uh may be headed headed. Jerome, thank you very much. We've got some interesting races here. Of course, there's the governor's race uh on the GOP side, Andy Biggs uh versus Dave Schwikert, two well-known members of Congress. Um what have the prediction markets been saying about this race? I always find it interesting when I talk to you to ask you sort of take us through the story via the prediction markets when it comes to this race. Yeah, I mean this race is not particularly competitive in the markets.

[00:29:36]It was back around last fall when Karen Taylor Robson was in the race um after she dropped out and you know Trump backed Andy Biggs. Um he is currently around like 99% chance to win. He has a Trump endorsement. Um you know like there's a lot of factors that are in his favor. Um and I think Dave Schweikert um has not been like in in some of the polling and funding data. It does not seem like he's been posing as strong a challenge to to bigs as maybe initially you know two house members ran against each other it seemed. Um I do think it's you know there's there's some tests of Trump's endorsement power tonight. um not just in the governor primary but also in for example uh the the fifth district with with Mark Lamb um who is facing some scandals of his own um and he's you know been badly outspent by this by this other businessman >> um running against him but he still is you know at around a 90 91% chance to win um he's still favored of the markets um I think in large part because of that Trump endorsement which still means a lot in you know most Republican primaries Um but >> Julia, is this is this different because it is a yes, it's a Trumpadors candidate. Um but it isn't a swing state uh like Arizona. How does that maybe change the dynamic here?

[00:30:56]>> Well, and Arizona is a very unique state, you know, in the sense that independents make up a big portion of their electorate. Um and in the sense that, you know, Trump hasn't swept it in his last few elections. Um, so I think um, yeah, the the Trump endorsement looms over every race that we've been seeing this cycle and the president has passed plenty of tests of his political influence that we've seen so far. Um, but yeah, I think, you know, when we're talking about these races that could be critical battlegrounds in the fall, um, you know, we'll see how much the Trump endorsement matters moving toward the general as well. Uh Jerome, let's look at uh that Arizona first district primary between uh in the GOP side of things. We've got about 45 uh seconds left or so. Actually, no, we're going to we're going to extend a little bit. Uh if you can share your screen for us um because this is an interesting grace when anytime you got a former uh professional athlete uh entering the political game, it is it is always interesting. And then when that former professional athlete pretty much immediately gets President Trump's endorsement, it also offers a bit of a different dynamic here. What are the markets telling you about that race for the first district on the GOP side?

[00:32:07]>> Yeah, the first district again Trump, you know, endorsed Jay Feelely, former professional football player, and he is very strongly favored. I believe um Joseph Chavelick is running to his right. Um but, you know, without that Trump endorsement, it's very difficult.

[00:32:20]It reminds me a little bit of >> I believe it was, you know, Texas's 21st district or something with with Mark uh Tahara.

[00:32:29]>> Yeah. Tahara. Yes. Uh former >> New York Yankee. Yeah, >> exactly. Um, so professional athletes I think do, you know, have been doing fairly well the cycle and I think, um, I don't know this off the top of my head, but I think in the past if you look at them, um, they probably have decent records when it comes to primaries. Um, I will note, you know, President Trump's endorsement is very strong in Arizona, but Arizona is a state where there's quite a few elected Democrats who, you know, probably would not have won in 2022 if the Republican primary electorate had not chosen um a more, you know, extreme candidate on the GOP side, right?

[00:33:06]There's the Carrie Lakes. Uh there's the Mark Finchums and again this year in the Secretary of State primary. Um the the chair the former chairwoman Gina Swabota looks like she might lose to a an election denier a further right candidate. So there's some patterns that seem to be um you know repeating in 2026 in Arizona.

[00:33:26]>> Uh Julia, do you get the sense uh from either Democrats or Republicans just how critical that first house seat is? uh whether you're talking about Republicans trying to maintain their slim majority in the House or Democrats trying to perhaps gain a slim majority in the House.

[00:33:43]>> Yeah, I mean I I think it's one of the the critical races that we're watching.

[00:33:47]Um you know, I I think that um in particular, like we've been talking about in Arizona, looking at the dynamics with independent voters, Democrats, uh and Republicans who may be souring on President Trump. Um it'll be interesting to watch in some of these close competitive House races, you know, how these voters are feeling in the primary could be sort of a barometer for both parties to look toward the general sort of see how their messaging has been working and what they need to carry forward.

[00:34:16]>> Uh Julia, in your reporting since again so much has changed, be it the Democratic infighting, you know, scandal plague candidates, uh the war in Iran, what issues are still rising to the top?

[00:34:27]Is it still regardless of whatever is happening coming back to the economy?

[00:34:32]>> The economy is really still king uh for most people that we talk to. Um it's, you know, the the pocketbook pressures and and the way that voters are feeling the strain of the economy and frustration with Trump over the handling of the economy continues to be the top issue in most of the polling that we see. Um but we also see um you know the the war in Iran, Trump's foreign policy moves um that sort of weighing on him.

[00:34:56]Now, Trump's approval rating has uh, you know, in some polling eased a bit from lower points that it hit earlier this year. Um, and so there's a sign of potential recovery as we're getting closer to the midterms. So, we'll see how that ends up panning out for Trump's picks and his endorsed candidates. Um, but really the economy still is, I think, the main piece of messaging that both parties are trying to figure out how best to hammer.

[00:35:19]>> Uh, Jerrell, let's take a step back.

[00:35:20]I'll ask you sort of the same question I asked Jeff. you know who who would you rather be right now Republicans or Democrats? I remember what maybe a month and a half ago we were talking about a 10point lead on the generic ballot. Now I believe it's down, you know, according to Jeff maybe like three or four. Uh what are the markets feeling right now in terms of who is ultimately going to come out on top in November?

[00:35:41]>> I mean it's it's a different story between the House and the Senate. Um >> so in the house actually uh there has not been a ton of movement towards Republicans based on some recent improvements in the direct ballot. Um I think you know two things. First part of the improvements in perhaps Trump's approval rating and some of those metrics came during this you know lull um the sort of ceasefire with Iran. It looks like >> gas prices go down. People start feeling a little bit better. Yep.

[00:36:09]>> Right. Um it it does seem like that could fray uh pretty significantly in the coming you know weeks and it has already and that could have impacts on the gas prices on the general sense of you know what is the US doing in the Middle East. Um the second thing is in in the polling there are still gaps with you know enthusiastic voters um and voters who are you know certain or very very likely to vote. I believe that still favors Democrats by, you know, closer to 10 points than three to four.

[00:36:37]Um, and so if that enthusiasm gap does manifest, if Republicans are, you know, demoralized or are less enthusiastic because of some of the foreign policy issues in the economy, you know, perhaps the result could be better for Democrats than uh the polling of all voters or something suggests.

[00:36:54]>> All right, we're gonna have to leave it there for now. Jerome, thank you so much for your time as always, my friend.

[00:36:58]Appreciate it. Julia, you don't go anywhere. We will be right back with Norah the hill data nerds 26. Stay with us.

[00:39:09]data nerds primary night in the great state of Arizona and polls uh just recently closed about 4 minutes ago. So uh if we can perhaps maybe get some uh results, we will bring those to you. But as Jeffrey Skellyy told you, a big place like Maricopa County takes them a little bit of time to count the votes. Uh but we're going to be with you for the next 25 minutes or so talking about Arizona, of course, but just taking a a bigger step back and looking at everything that is going on uh nationally as we barrel our way towards uh November. So let's go ahead and uh Tom, I believe we're ready to share some screen time and look at some of the results uh if again they are there. Um, Julia Mueller here with me.

[00:39:50]Uh, and Caroline Veil here with me as well. Always willing to join us on a Tuesday night. Good evening to you, my friend. Um, I'll ask Julia. I ask you what I asked Julia and what I've asked everybody, not necessarily what you're watching here because we know we have a test of a Trump back candidate against someone who considers themselves in the MAGA movement. Um, when it comes to a Trump backed candidate in a swing state, what are you hearing in terms of the calculus being made by Republicans? Is this a time to vote for somebody who is thoroughly embedded in the MAGA movement? Or is maybe the president just a little bit too hot and we maybe might prefer someone who's MAGA adjacent but not totally on board with everything President Trump's doing? Well, that's sort of the the question that voters are going to be sort of asking themselves, Republican primary voters at least. I mean, Arizona is kind of interesting in that ever since 2020 when President Trump kind of baselessly claimed that he had won the 2020 election results, we've seen this strand of election denialism really take hold among Arizona Republicans. They've they've nominated a number of candidates, including this cycle, who have been involved in or have, you know, uh objected to the 2020 election results in some form or fashion. And we're seeing a number of those candidates kind of stepping up to the plate now. There are some Republicans who are running who are uh not necessarily going that full extent.

[00:41:18]But unlike in other states where maybe that strand of election denialism has, you know, Republicans have shifted, they've sort of moved on. Um, in Arizona, we've seen this kind of take hold for a number of election cycles.

[00:41:32]And just talking to one of my Republican sources in Arizona, um, earlier this evening, uh, they suggested they expect some of those same individuals uh, to be winning in those primaries later tonight. Uh, do you get a sense, Caroline, of how the Republicans are feeling about these races? You know, do they feel better about their chances in the governor's race as compared to their chances in the first congressional district race?

[00:41:56]>> Right now, it seems like um if Republicans are going to have a good uh some good races, it might be in the first congressional district. Former NFL kicker Jay Feelely is running. uh you know uh he obviously is contending with two other Republican opponents in his primary. Um he's been endorsed by Trump, but he's got you know his own brand as a former NFL player. Um and he's sort of seen as I think having a bit of a middle ground. Uh obviously can excite Trump base, but is also not so MAGA aligned that uh he might put off maybe more disaffected Republicans, independents.

[00:42:35]So that's one I would certainly look at.

[00:42:37]Um, you know, there are definitely candidates that some Republicans hope will win, but again, as where we talked about, some of those more maga align election deniers uh kind of threatened to really uh ou them in those Republican primaries. Um, you know, Andy Biggs, uh, you know, Republicans had a very, um, they had a very rare opportunity to to oust Governor Katie Hobbs as well this cycle. If Karen Taylor Robesson, who's a developer, had stayed in the race, it would have made the race a little bit tougher. But Andy Biggs is a you know House Freedom Caucus member. He's trying to position himself more as bipartisan now. It's going to be a little bit of a tougher cell in Arizona as a purple state.

[00:43:16]>> So we had spent the last few weeks talking about you know Democratic socialists in New York and progressives out in Colorado. Uh with the caveat that you know Denver isn't like everywhere else. New York City isn't like everywhere else. Uh Arizona's pretty close you know to being like everywhere else. Um you have Greg Stanton who is an incumbent uh Democrat going up against an upand cominging progressive Kai Newkerk seen as a sort of confrontational uh progressive member of the left really believes that you got to fight fire with fire. Uh what is that fight the establishment versus progressivism?

[00:43:52]Does it look different in a swing state compared to a solidly blue state?

[00:43:58]Yeah, I mean I think it's a picture of what's playing out across the board with rep with Democrats as they sort of soul search um for the the best way forward and what kind of candidates appeal to people. Um the this kind of conversation goes with um you know talks about generational change within the party.

[00:44:16]You know, we've seen lots of talk about lawmakers who are absent from Congress or uh you know um other issues in office. Uh and you know all of this sort of fuels this appetite among Democratic voters for candidates that are pitching a change to the status quo. Um and I think that you know whenever you're looking at um you know how this appeals uh this state can be um a key test as we move forward and look toward the general um for you know how much that appetite um appeals in a in a state where independents play a big role um and where we're looking at Republicans who might be sort of getting dis disaffected with with Trump.

[00:44:56]>> I'm glad you mentioned independence.

[00:44:57]Julia Caroline, how does when you talk about this debate within the party on whether we should stay sort of center left or you know way we should go farther left. Um how do independence play in that? Because that's when I talk about the sort of social media war uh that's going on amongst Democratic influencers. So much of it is we're going to be turning off independence uh and and that's why we are going to lose some of these highly contested races.

[00:45:23]>> Sure. I think there it's an interesting question. I think with Arizona Democrats, there is an understanding that you can't be so far left if you're running statewide that you isolate your own party. Of course, uh this progressive is running in a reliably blue district. So, it's a little bit of a different dynamic than running statewide, but uh Democrats know that if you want to win, you're going to have to be left center uh you know, kind of balancing the middle of the road issue.

[00:45:51]Um, and so I think for them it's kind of interesting, but at the same time you're also having to balance being acceptively uh acceptably Democratic. Um, you think about Senator Kirsten Cinema uh who turned from being a Democrat to an independent. A lot of Democrats soued on her because she was against um getting rid of the filibuster for abortion rights, for example, and other related issues. So much so that she kind of isolated her own base. So it's finding that middle ground in Arizona.

[00:46:20]Obviously, you don't want to isolate every, you know, all Democrats, but you can't stray away from the base's core mission.

[00:46:29]>> Let's move out of Arizona and just look at this nationally. Of course, you know, we've been talking about we got this big race coming up in Michigan, uh, on August 4th. Um, do you guys when you're out on the, you know, talking to folks on the trail and strategists, do you get a sense of where the momentum is or, you know, especially on the Democratic side, you know, a couple months back they were feeling great. you know, the we they were up nearly double digits in the generic ballot. The president's poll numbers uh were sinking. Then you had the platiner stuff and then you had the DSA stuff. Um is the momentum there or is this just let's let's sort of just hold on until we can get over the finish line here. Caroline, start with you.

[00:47:09]>> Um I think we're we're seeing particularly establishment figures trying to coalesce very quickly around um Congresswoman Haley Stevens. You saw Senator Gary Peters, who had formally said he wasn't really going to endorse in the race, making an endorsement for Haley Stevens the same week that Senator Bernie Sanders and Congresswoman Alex uh uh Alexandria Accassiocortez was rallying for Abdul Elsa, the progressive in this race. Um you know, you saw the CAG Dana Nestle also endorsing Stevens.

[00:47:42]So I think there is this kind of you know you saw the Congressional Black Caucus also recently endorsing Stevens.

[00:47:48]So I think that there is a sense among some of the party apparatus that we need to quickly get around Stevens because we could potentially be thwarting an opportunity to keep the seat in November if un if we go with someone like Elsa Ed.

[00:48:02]>> What are you seeing Julia? A lot of chewed fingernails on the Democratic side of things. Yeah, I think that um you know, if you look at the polling, you look at DDHQ's forecast of of the outlook for Democrats. What it's looking like is that there really is a path for the party still in both chambers. Now, it's an uphill climb and that climb maybe getting more uphill as we get some of these developments. Um, I think people in the party that I've talked to are still optimistic about Democrats being able to capitalize on some of that off-year momentum we saw in 2025, the momentum from earlier this year, the excitement about these anti-establishment candidates. Um, but that being said, there are, you know, these, um, uh, I issues coming up for the party, uh, like the developments out of Maine, um, that are making all of these seats that were already must-wins, uh, even more critical, uh, and and really asking the party to evaluate exactly where it's spending its resources, um, exactly where it's targeting moving toward the fall.

[00:49:02]>> Interesting. Interesting. All right. Uh, I believe we can bring in our final friend of the night, uh, Julia, thank you so much. We appreciate your time as always. We run out of screen screen sharing space, so we have to move folks in and out. Let's bring in Eric Cunningham of DDHQ joining us for the first time here on the Hill Decision Desk 26. Uh Eric, thanks for joining us.

[00:49:21]Uh so happy to have you here. Um I'll ask you same question I ask everybody every Tuesday night. And I will first get you to share your screen. Uh and then secondly, what are you looking at tonight? any races really sort of stand out to you as as ones that you're going to watch as the first sort of set of results start coming in?

[00:49:38]>> Yeah. No, no, thanks for having me. Um, yeah. So, uh, I think I have the screen share should be showing up now. There we go. Yeah. Uh, this is one of the big ones I'm I'm be interested in watching.

[00:49:48]Arizona's fourth house district. Uh, this is a Democraticleaning district.

[00:49:52]It, uh, I think last time Democrats won it by about eight percentage points.

[00:49:56]Greg Stanton, he's a longtime incumbent, you know, well known in the area. uh he is facing a progressive primary challenge from Kai Newkerk. Uh but interestingly, there have been some withdrawal. There have been some endorsements that have been withdrawn over the last couple days. There have been some allegations uh that had led the young Democrats, I believe, of of of Arizona and a couple local lawmakers that had endorsed um Newkerk to withdraw their endorsement. So, so this is going to be less of like is Newkerk going to win and more how close is this going to be? Right? Throughout the cycle, we've seen across the country in multiple areas progressive challengers um in Democratic leaning districts um either putting in very close primary challenges or unseeding incumbent Democrats. This is one of those this is one of those districts where you have a pretty, you know, moderate um establishment type Democrat. Uh but it is Democratic enough that it should be able to elect generally people who vote along that line. So, uh this is going to be one that I'm really interested in. Um, also the first district on the Democratic side, this is kind of an interparty uh conflict. Um, you have multiple candidates here. Uh, the top two I believe are Amish Shaw and Marlene Galan Woods.

[00:51:05]>> Um, Shaw, one of them is I believe it's Shaw is endorsed by Mark Kirk, but generally or actually no, Shaw is I believe the head and then I believe Woods is the one who's endorsed by um by the incumbent senator Mark Kelly um who you think would be pretty influential Democratic side. This is obviously a really competitive district. This has actually been one of the most competitive uh in the country. This voted for I believe voted for Biden voted for Trump. So it's a Biden Trump district, but it had a Democrat, it had a Republican representative over this time period as well. David Schwiker, who is retiring to run for governor. Um so this is an open district and it's an it's a district that's in the northern part of Phoenix. So Scottsdale, northern Phoenix, uh a bunch of areas that have been very competitive have been favorable for Democrats in the long run.

[00:51:50]and this is a seat they would very much like to take. So, this is another one that I'm very interested in in taking a look at here. Um, and then finally, we've got um, you know, we've got a bunch of these local races, right?

[00:52:02]Superintendent, treasurer, uh, you know, on the Republican side, actually, I believe it's superintendent. You have Kimberly Ye, who if you're familiar with Arizona politics all, you're familiar with that name. She's been a statewide office holder before his run for office and is doing a comeback bid here against an incumbent Republican Tom Horn. This is another one. Again, she's like an establishment leaning type Republican uh going up against an incumbent Republican office holder. So, these are some of the handful of examples um of races to follow tonight. Uh the governor side of Republicans, I know this is one that had there had been some attention for this one before. Um you know, we've got Andy Biggs, David Schwiker. You think this would be a big race, top two uh Republican incumbent congressman going up against each other. Um but Andy Biggs has a Trump endorsement. So realistically, we expect this one to go, you know, go for bigs um by probably a decent margin.

[00:52:54]>> Uh Caroline, in in terms of the president's sort of power here. Um has that, you know, we often you I read a Chiron today on on some networks saying Trump says he doesn't care about the midterms. If he didn't care about the midterms, he woulding these sort of candidates. Is it simply just we we and I say we as in the media view his lack of caring because he isn't out there stumping for for a lot of people or really putting pressure in some of these more hotly competitive races and and and trying to get his candidate over the finish line.

[00:53:29]>> I mean he's certainly taken less of a physical presence on the campaign trail than he has in previous election cycles.

[00:53:36]He is still very much weighing in on some of these contested primaries whether Republicans want him to or not.

[00:53:41]He uh you know famously endorsed Karen Taylor ropes in that developer I was mentioning earlier before she even uh tried her hand for governor um and then later did a double endorsement for her and Congressman Andy Biggs in the governor's race. Robson later dropped her her um primary bid, but Biggs is obviously still in the race against Schwiker and several others. He has backed Jay Feelely, the former NFL kicker in Arizona's first congressional district. He's also uh backing former panel uh county sheriff uh Mark Lamb in the fifth congressional district, which was Bigs Bigs's old seat. Um and it is going to be interesting. I mean, he's clearly getting involved in these primaries. We've seen more of a shaky record on some of the gumnatorial side, but in terms of federal races, it's been nearly perfect. Um, but you know, several of them have contested races.

[00:54:32]Lamb is kind of dealing with some allegations of uh alleged sexual impropriy uh that was reported earlier this year by the Arizona Republic. And so it's going to be a test of his endorsement part whether they get over the finish line or not tonight. I want to ask you, are are the strategists you talk to, are they sort of looking at their candidate and going, you know what, let's take one more thorough look at what is in your past just so we can be sure we don't end up with a platiner situation on our hands.

[00:54:58]>> Um, I think that's probably the biggest takeaway that many folks are are are taking. I mean, I think Graham Platner certainly has raised a lot of questions around that kind of campaign vetting that went on and that's sort of the a campaign's worst nightmare. I mean, you do your own oppo before you, you know, when you meet with a candidate, you kind of try to get out ahead of all of those controversies before they get reported.

[00:55:22]Um, and so certainly, I mean, Lamb, for example, uh, contending with allegations that he sent, like sexually explicit, you know, uh, text to women and then allegedly threatened some of them who wanted to report it. Uh, obviously doesn't make for great news headlines.

[00:55:37]Not sure exactly whether or not the campaign knew this or not. Um, but those are the sort of situations that every team is working to uh avoid before you get into a race.

[00:55:47]>> So, Eric, as the primary calendar continues to roll on, of course, we got the big one in Michigan coming up uh in August, uh, what are you looking at of those sort of remaining races uh, remaining states on the calendar? Um, any of them sort of peique your interest, um, that you know, you're really looking forward to ultimately seeing voters go to the polls for? Yeah, obviously Michigan's top of mind, right?

[00:56:10]You've got a competitive Senate race there and it's a rare one because you have Republicans have solidified around their candidate, right? They they they know who the candidate's gonna be Mike Rogers, although the governor side, I believe there's a little bit more of a contested race there. the Democratic side though that's really fascinating is like if you look at these districts where Democrat progressive Democrats, Democratic Socialist of America aligned candidates have won, they've all been in very very blue districts, districts that voted for, you know, Democrats by double digit margins, sometimes even closer to 40, 50 percentage points. Um, this is one of the first real tests you have of a progressive candidate running in a swing state, right? This is a state that voted for Trump two out of three times.

[00:56:48]Um, but it's also not voted for Republican senator since, I believe, the 1990s. Um, they've, you know, have multiple Democrat Senate delegation for quite some time now. So, they've been very favorable to the Democratic party there. Um, so obviously, you know, looking at it's a really crucial test because obviously it's a two-way race, right? You have Haley Stevens, you have Abdul, you have Abdul Aliad. Um, both of them very much solidified their bases there. The question is whether that ascendant progressive movement is going to be enough to get him over the top.

[00:57:17]And and that's going to be really interesting to witness because again we've not seen this in a swing state before. Closest we probably had was Graham Platner, right? And that's in a Democratic leaning state that voted for Kla Harris by eight points. Republicans haven't won it uh at the federal level since I think 88. Um so it's been pretty Democratic for some time. And then you obviously had Pennsylvania um in 2022 had John Federman win. And I I think most Democrats now would not really consider him to be a highly progressive candidate >> or or a Democrat in some cases.

[00:57:46]>> Yeah, exactly. So like those have been your those have been like your top level cases of progressive candidates running.

[00:57:51]You're like 0 for two so far. I I would say charitably. Um but you know Elsa this is this is a Democratic leaning year. So right so this is this is an opportunity we expect to lean towards Democrats in that. But also you know that's not the only one. You look ahead on the primary calendar, right? We got Minnesota. That's a really big state coming up. I mean, it's not a it's not the hugest swing state, but you also have a you have a Senate race there, >> but you also have on the governor side Republicans potentially nominating Mike Lindell, um, which is a level of candidate quality failure that I think most people would would not really want in their party. Um, you have, you know, Wisconsin, that's another big one.

[00:58:25]Franchesco Hong, uh, and and Mandela Barnes on the Democratic side in that gubernatorial primary, and then David Crowley coming back with Democratic establishment support at the last minute after having dropped out. Um, so those are those are the kind of the really big ones. And then obviously, you know, recent passing of Lindsey Graham, there is going to be Senate special primary coming up on the Republican side and that's going to actually be a pretty big test of the Trump endorsement. um he has endorsed um uh Trump's uh you know Darling Graham um as the successor, but he also had a pretty notable endorsement um backtrack a couple weeks ago and there he endorsed uh Pam uh Pam Everett uh in the the lieutenant governor of the state uh in the Republican primary and she ended up losing by a double digit margin uh he had switched his endorsement I think at the last minute um to the to the winning candidate there. Um but you know this is kind of a state that has at least a little bit of a willingness to consider a different candidate. So, that's going to be a really big test and also a big test of Graham's legacy, >> right? Graham Graham is a figure that had a had a pretty strong track record in South Carolina, but certainly had people who didn't like him. Um, whether, you know, they're going to have them solidify around a single candidate or vote for Graham was going to be a big deal. Um, those are just kind of the ones in the near future. Uh Caroline, in terms of racists still to come, Michigan aside, uh when you talk to Democratic strategists out there or or Republicans, any races coming up that they are really sort of paying attention to maybe will could determine where certain amounts of money go come November.

[00:59:53]>> I think the Minnesota Senate Democratic primary is going to be really interesting. That one's going to be taking place on August 11th, so just shortly after uh Michigan. And again, it teases up a centrist progressive proxy battle between Congresswoman Angie Craig and Lieutenant Governor Peggy Flanigan.

[01:00:11]Um, you have seen Democrats of all stripes get involved, including Senator Tina Smith, who has backed Flanigan in this. Um, but again, you know, in a way, Minnesota is a little different in that it's a little bit more blueleaning. And so um you know maybe not the same kind of apprehension around whether uh you know Flanigan wins. Although certainly Angie Craig has made the argument that you know if uh that she is more battle tested and that she would be able to take on Michelle Deoya former uh sports broadcast journalist um sees her as more of a formidable opponent. But um you're still seeing this sort of uh push and you know pull this this tug of war between both sides of the party that are happening in all uh different elements.

[01:00:54]Also with the Wisconsin groom notorial race you mentioned is another great example.

[01:00:58]>> Uh Eric, let's uh get you to circle back to Arizona and the the short time that we have left here on this Tuesday night.

[01:01:05]I know the polls closed at 10. It's probably going to take a while for them >> to start counting these votes, but have we gotten anything yet? be it in the Arizona GOP governor primary or that that district one race results wise yet?

[01:01:17]>> Yeah. No, no. Looking on our back end, uh we haven't received any votes coming in yet. Um I I would expect from what I have been told it was probably closer to 11 to when we get votes in, but obviously it could be sooner, right? You know, they had you have to wait for the whole state to finish counting. They also have to actually, you know, get the process of counting started. So, we've not received anything yet, right? But when these come in, we we think there's going to be a pretty good picture of the gubernatorial race on the Republican side pretty immediately. Um but some of the other ones are going to be really competitive again. You know, that first district race is actually a really interesting one. Jay Field is not just a former NFL player. He's a former Arizona Cardinal. Um if I'm if I'm you know, he Yeah, he he played for them for a couple years. So he's kind of have a local a local I remember him from growing up watching football. So that's an interesting one.

[01:02:00]>> So yeah.

[01:02:01]>> Yeah. But we've not received any votes as far as I can tell. So when we and we got a actually got a question from a viewer on YouTube. So let's say around 11 you get a drop of of you know ballots from Maricopa or anywhere in the state.

[01:02:16]Um are we looking at this lasting into the morning time on the east coast at least or should we have a pretty clear picture even if all the votes aren't counted of who's ultimately going to come out on top?

[01:02:27]>> I mean it's going to depend on the race, right? Like you know governor, Republican style. We expect that to be pretty quick. That may be one that's actually taken off the board immediately. But you have other races that may take us until like 2 3:00 a.m.

[01:02:37]Um, that's at least uh that that's potentially how long, you know, it could take to get all the stuff counted, right? They're go they're operating in western mountain time and, you know, us over on the East Coast, we're operating on an on, you know, you know, two to three, you know, two to three four hours behind. So, um, this could this could take a while, especially if some of these races turn out to be competitive.

[01:02:56]Um, and and we we do stay up and finish counting them for as long as possible.

[01:02:59]So, to get as many of these races projected as we can, >> a late night. Uh, Caroline, we got about 30 seconds. I want to ask you, uh, what has the chatter been on the trail following President Trump's address to the nation last week on voter security?

[01:03:11]>> Um, I I think there are some Republicans who are who are scratching their heads wondering why he is talking about a past election. There are others who are thinking maybe this is a way to motivate his base since he won't have his name on the ballot. But, of course, you know, the >> Republicans want to be talking about the economy right now. Anything else kind of becomes a distraction for the party heading into November.

[01:03:32]>> All right. Well, we will have to leave it there. Uh Caroline, Eric, thank you guys so much and thank you all at home for sticking with us on a late Tuesday night. Of course, The Hill.com will have all your primary results in Arizona. But for now, that's all we have time for.

[01:03:45]We'll see you next time.

[01:03:54]>> [music]