The Heat: Middle East Conflict | Trump threatens Iran

[00:00:00]Iran and the United States have exchanged attacks for the 10th straight night. Iran says it targeted US assets in Kuwait, Bahrain, and Jordan along with a vessel in the Strait of Hormuz after the United States said it targeted Iranian military infrastructure. On the diplomatic front, Iranian interior Minister Escander Mmeni met with Pakistani Prime Minister Shabb Sharif in Islamabad on Tuesday. Pakistan is working to broker a diplomatic solution to end the conflict. Joining us now from Thran is Muhammad Mirandi. He's a professor of English literature and orientalism at the University of Tehran.

[00:00:36]Dr. Morandi, great to have you with us again.

[00:00:39]>> Thank you for having me.

[00:00:40]>> So, let's look at the situation right now. As uh I mentioned, the United States has bombed Iran for the 10th consecutive night. Iran has countered with attacks on Bahrain where US naval ships are based and also attacks on US military targets and infrastructure in Kuwait and Jordan. Uh at this stage we know that at least four US soldiers have been killed. The United States will not dulge numbers on other casualties. But what can you tell us about the bombings against Iran?

[00:01:13]The United States has uh since the beginning been more focused on civilian infrastructure, but after the Iranians threatened to retaliate three, four nights ago, the United States has uh decreased the number of attacks on civilian targets and it has uh been more focused on military targets, but in many cases they have not been successful basically because most of Iran's key assets are deep underground and also Iran has many thousands of decoys planted uh across the south of Iran. So the Americans have been busy uh bombing those decoys. On the other hand, the Iranians have been hitting the Americans very hard. uh Iran's estimates for American uh casualties are much higher uh than the American numbers or substantially higher and uh the Iranian strikes have been so successful that the Americans have been forced to withdraw many of their assets from the Persian Gulf region and take them to Jordan. And as we all have seen, Iranian missiles have now been striking US assets in Jordan. And there's talks that the American there's talk that the Americans may have to pull it back them back even further.

[00:02:38]>> Iran is uh describing this as a fullscale war. I mean, what is your assessment of hostilities right now and the risk that this could escalate even further?

[00:02:48]>> The fighting is quite heavy. The Iranians have been hitting the United States very hard. The Americans have been carrying out many air strikes. Uh but it's all to no avail. The United States has been unable to u make any progress with regards to taking control over uh the straight of hormones and uh as we see the price of energy is going up. Uh shortages uh on helium and fertilizer and LNG and all other products uh that are made in the Persian Gulf region. Those shortages are increasing by the minute and now that the Red Sea is closed to the uh Saudi regime, um the price of energy will probably go up uh much more swiftly.

[00:03:43]>> That's right. The conflict has widened now with Ansar Allah, also known as the Houthis, uh who are imposing a naval blockade on Saudi Arabian vessels. Um what is the situation now with the flow of oil not just through the Red Sea but through the Straight of Homus as well?

[00:04:05]>> Well, the Straight of Homo is um virtually closed except for a handful of ships that go through the Iranian corridor with Iranian permission. ships that have attempted to use the so-called American corridor are struck by Iran because they violate the uh uh the the orders of the Iranian Navy which say say that they can only use the Iranian corridor and uh we've had further uh uh strikes on uh different ships that have violated uh the uh orders of the Iranian Navy. So uh very little is leaving the straight of hormones and nothing is actually entering which uh is going to have a significant impact even when the United States is ultimately forced to u halt the uh the aggression and um the Ansar or what they call the Houthi in the west the Yemen armed forces they are also using this moment to put uh an extraordinary ly large amount of pressure on Saudi Arabia for the siege that they've imposed on the Yemeni people. Uh since the Saudis can no longer use the Persian Gulf under these circumstances by shutting the Babandab straight in the Red Sea, they are basically putting the Saudi regime in a very very difficult and dangerous situation. So um the war is not going well for Trump nor for his allies and nor for his proxies. Well, let's look at uh the efforts that are now being made to get the diplomatic uh efforts back on track. Uh as I mentioned earlier on, the Iranian interior minister Escandanda Mmeni is in Pakistan. He's at the head of a high level delegation there. What can you tell us about these efforts to deescalate what is happening right now and know where does that leave the memorandum of understanding? Has it completely collapsed or are these efforts to try and resuscitate that?

[00:06:12]>> I don't believe the trip to Pakistan has much to do with theou or the situation between Iran and the United States. He is the secretary of interior and he's not a negotiator. Iran and Pakistan do extensive trade especially under these circumstances.

[00:06:32]uh the the trade has increased. Uh but also uh the United States and its allies have traditionally used ISIS and al-Qaeda affiliates in uh the Baluchistan uh region of Pakistan to attack Iran. So uh part of their negotiations will be about border security. But in general, uh, the Iranians are very clear that, uh, the United States started the war.

[00:07:01]The United States lost the war. The United States signed an MOU and failed to abide by >> its commitments. And the only way for us to return to peace is if the United States uh, carries out its obligations.

[00:07:16]And probably Iran will add a few more obligations next time around.

[00:07:20]>> Yeah. The United States Secretary of State Marco Rubio, he says that the US is open to a diplomatic outcome uh or resolution of some kind. Let's listen to what he had to say.

[00:07:34]>> I think we're always open to diplomacy.

[00:07:35]It has to be real. It has to be a deal that they're willing to live by. Look, Iran a week ago was put out supposed to put out a statement saying that the straits of our moves would be open, that they would no longer attack shipping.

[00:07:44]And instead of doing that, they attacked three ships. I think that was last Friday or Saturday. So I mean their behavior has to change in order for ours to change.

[00:07:54]>> So Rubia there is placing the blame for this latest outbreak of hostilities on Iran. But how does Iran see it?

[00:08:01]Iran never put out such a statement. In fact, according to article five of theou, the straight of hormones is supposed to be under Iranian authority uh during the period when theou is valid and that is something that the Americans accepted.

[00:08:20]But the Americans went and opened up their own corridor in violation of the deal and their proxies in the region that helped them attack Iran cooperated with that with Americans to violate the deal. meaning the Saudis, the Kuwaitis, the Emiratis. They sent their tankers through that corridor. After many warnings, finally the Iranians struck three tankers who were in violation and who had ignored Iran's report warnings and that's uh all the fault of the United States. The United States has violated every single article of theou. It has not uh carried out any of its commitments and um the world knows that.

[00:09:00]And uh Marco Rubio is the secretary of state for a president who is known to be utterly dishonest. So no one really takes any of their propaganda seriously.

[00:09:12]>> Dr. Morandi, we have to leave it there.

[00:09:14]Thanks for being with us.

[00:09:15]>> Thank you for having me.

[00:09:17]>> Shipping in the street of Hermuz has once again grown to a halt as the fight for control of the waterway continues.

[00:09:23]And there are some reports two Saudi oil tankers have been turned back in the Red Sea after a warning from Yemen's Houthi movement. For more, we turn now to Amir Hanjani. He is a board member at the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft. He joins us from New York.

[00:09:39]Amir, great to have you with us.

[00:09:41]>> It's nice to be with you.

[00:09:42]>> Now, at least four US soldiers have been killed over the weekend as Iran and the United States have escalated attacks on each other. US President Trump is uh threatening that Iran will pay for the killing of those US soldiers many times over. So we see that this conflict is now rapidly escalating day by day. Where do you see it heading?

[00:10:05]Well, I think that a return to the level of the conflict of a few months ago, allout war, where there are missiles being rained down on Tehran and in retaliation, Iran is launching missile drones at uh capitals in the Gulf is [snorts] still a little ways away. Um I call this what's happening right now is controlled escalation. Um the Iran is trying to essentially hit as many US bases in the region as they can to disrupt logistics and troop movements.

[00:10:41]Um and Iran and the United States in turn is trying to hit as many missile launchers and as many uh drone factories and um areas in the south close to the straits of Hormuz where Iran has artillery um to to degrade their ability to launch attacks in the straits. That's the state of play right now.

[00:11:08]>> Right. There are a number of reasons that uh are being offered on why uh these hostilities are breaking out periodically. I mean one of them is that there are differing interpretations on the part of the United States and Iran on parts of that memorandum of understanding that they signed particularly on who controls the strait of Hammuz and that goes particularly to article 5 uh of that. I mean to what extent is that misunderstanding or misinterpretation on the side of both on both sides driving this conflict?

[00:11:43]>> I think that's a major piece of it. But there are other parts of theou that that both sides claim are um not being fulfilled based on their respective interpretations of it. For Iran, the issue of Lebanon um is is a is a big issue as well because they wanted a sessation of hostilities there and for Israel to pull out of Lebanon completely. That's not what's happening.

[00:12:08]Um the US, Israel and Lebanon are conducting their own um negotiation there. Um but the the the main issue as as you've said is this interpretation about about clause five. Iran believes that uh the straits of form should be governed by Oman itself and the latoral states around it. Um, and the US believes that Iran can essentially the parts of the the straits that that are that that go by Iranian territorial waters that okay, Iran will will let you have your say there, but anything that's that covers Oman and the other Gulf states um, you know, is is off limits to you. um that and and that's why tankers were going through the southern corridor >> um of the of Omani waters and they were turning off their transponders. That's what got the Iranians upset. That's what they issued warnings for. That's what they started eventually hitting um hitting boats uh hitting ships and tankers because of and and that that's because for Iran they don't want the strengths of form moves to have two different sets of laws one for Iran and one for for Oman they want it to be a unified um management of the straight >> right there is one other reason we are hearing and uh admittedly it is speculation but it is very informed opinion looking at where it's coming from and there has been reporting in the United States that the US never actually intended to abide by the terms of the memorandum of understanding and actually saw it as a means to regroup uh in the region to resupply their armed forces.

[00:14:02]What do you make of that? Do you think there's any credence to that?

[00:14:07]>> Well, I think that's the Iranian narrative. Um I think look both sides when there is a sessation of hostilities in any conflict are going to rearm they're going to reup and they're going to prepare for the resumption of hostilities right um this would happen in Ukraine and Russia this would happen in any in any conflict um because Iran hasn't been defeated militarily so they're always going to look to rearm and re-up and the US is going to look to do the same so they have leverage to bring to bear in in a further negotiation with Iran. And I think Iran saw that and the US saw what Iran was doing, obviously hitting those ships and said, "Okay, now we're going to we're going to hit them again." Um the problem with with that thinking on both sides is it gets into an escalatory spiral where you keep going up the escalatory ladder. Um, and of course we've had the unfortunate deaths of four American uh servicemen. So there there needs to this is why right now I control this peri I I I name this period manage escalation. It's controlled escalation.

[00:15:19]They don't want it to get too far out of hand because it gets too far out of hand. They're not going to be able to clean it up at the negotiating table.

[00:15:26]>> So as you point out, this is managed escalation. Um, what hopes then do you have for a diplomatic uh solution to this?

[00:15:38]I still think that's the only way um the Trump administration and Iran can get out of this conflict, end this conflict because uh a return to allout war would have such a catastrophic effect for the global economy for the 5 to7 trillion dollars of energy infrastructure in the Gulf on both sides of the Persian Gulf. um you know if that energy infrastructure uh is at play and is targeted you know you're talking about you know a global not just a global recession but possibly global depression 25% of the world's energy supply mostly to Asian countries by the way some to Europe but mostly to Asia comes out of the Persian Gulf in the streets of Fort Moose um you know neither neither Iran the United States or the Arab states of the Persian Gulf can afford uh to have that infrastructure um annihilated and to go back to to war.

[00:16:44]So there has to be an offramp >> whereby they can negotiate and and and put it into it. Iran is not going to give up. They're not going to, you know, the US has really two options. They can have a land invasion of Iran to try and control the straits of form.

[00:17:02]>> Yeah. control the southern part of of Iran that expect heavy casualties in that and and that's not really feasible.

[00:17:09]I don't think Trump wants to go there or they can negotiate.

[00:17:13]>> Um you know and looking uh at the kind of pain that Iran is prepared to tolerate while these hostilities go on.

[00:17:23]There was a piece that was written by one of your colleagues Vali Nassau who's a professor at Johns Hopkins University.

[00:17:28]I want to read to you part of that piece and get your assessment of what he said.

[00:17:30]He said Thrron will accept the inevitable economic hardships that another US naval blockade will entail, believing that its own pressure on the global economy by closing the straight of Hormuz and potentially the Bab al-Manddeb Strait and the Red Sea will force Trump to blink first. Well, that Babel Mandeb straight is already now under a blockade from the Houthis. But what do you make of that analysis by Val Nasa?

[00:17:56]I think that's, you know, more or less the correct analysis because for Iran, they want this to be the final war. They want to they want the United States, the global economy, the Arab states of the Persian Gulf to realize that that Iran can't be broken. It can't be forced to give up its strategic interests. It cannot be isolated from the global economy anymore and put in the penalty box, if you will, of sanctions. that this is in a sense from Iran's perspective its its chance now to >> rewrite the rules for itself as a country in the global economy and in the global security architecture.

[00:18:38]>> Um this in a sense this is the war for them to end future wars. Tolerate this pain now. inflict as [clears throat] much of it as you can uh to the global economy to the United States so that they'll never it won't happen again >> because everyone will when they're thinking about this uh a second time around they'll say this was so bad we're not going to go back to that >> and it's been 47 years of building up to this right >> since the Islamic revolution >> air hani great to have you with us thanks for your time we now turn to Lebanon and the US brokered framework work agreement between Israel and Lebanon. The Lebanese President Joseph Ow is meeting with US President Donald Trump in Washington as the Lebanese army begins to take control of three southern villages. Joining us now from London is Yosi Meckleberg. He is a senior consulting fellow with the Middle East and North Africa program at Chattam House. And from Beirut, Lebanon, Habib Batar is an independent journalist and founder of the Beirut Report. Thanks to both of you for being with us. Habib, let me start with you. Uh, as I said, the Lebanese president, Joseph Aun, is having a meeting with President Trump right here in Washington. It's the first such visit by a Lebanese head of state since 2009. What do you believe is behind this visit? What is the Lebanese president hoping to achieve?

[00:20:05]>> Well, it's important to note that Lebanon is a very small country with no real leverage in his negotiations. Um, and Lebanon is very much beholden uh the Lebanese military to the American government. The American government funds the Lebanese military. The American government pays the the salaries of the Lebanese military um and gives them all the equipment they need.

[00:20:23]So, in many ways, you know, the the Lebanese president might feel obliged, right, to um to go to the the person who is really funding the country at this point. Um and Lebanon claims that they're trying to achieve a kind of resolution to this war that has destroyed so much of Lebanon. Uh but you know for a lot of Lebanese you know this this feels like a kind of a trap you know that uh Lebanon is being told to do what Israel and the United States could not do which is to disarm Hzbollah. Um so if the United States and Israel two of the most powerful countries on earth the most deadliest militaries could not achieve uh destroying Hzbalah which is you know claims to be defending Lebanese territory from Israel occupation. How could the Lebanese army which is has no air power uh has no armor um you know how could they actually do this job that uh these uh imperial powers could not?

[00:21:12]>> So what then would President Owen hope to walk away from after this meeting? Uh I mean you know we're told that he's going to present a plan to disarm his buller. Is the Lebanese army capable of doing that?

[00:21:26]Well, as I said, the Lebanese army is, you know, a very uh outdated force with no air power. And this is by design. The United States has not allowed the Lebanese military to uh, you know, acquire any powerful weapons that could defend themselves from Israel. Uh, Israel is by design, you know, intended to be the dominant power in this region.

[00:21:44]Um, so, you know, many Lebanese are saying this is a kind of a surrender deal. Hzbalah has been the only part of Lebanon that has been able to resist uh Israeli forces uh from entering further into the country. Um and they were the only force able to to to eject Israeli forces back in the year 2000. Um and so many Lebanese feel that you know the president is giving up Lebanon's most powerful tool here um in order to kind of surrender to the Americans. Uh but of course it's being framed differently.

[00:22:10]There's a lot of Lebanese who believe that America wants to help Lebanon that America is a force freedom. Uh it is a kind of a delusional thinking for many others who see that they have been behind the destruction of over 60 Lebanese villages uh completely wiped off the map. Um and even Lebanese orchards and oil olive groves have been just bulldozed and and and destroyed and burned with white phosphorus all paid for by the American tax dollar. So it's kind of difficult for many Lebanese to understand what could be achieved when the forest that has actually destroyed your country um is it seems that they're going to actually help you. Um there's a bit of a delusional thinking for many it seems that there's a kind of a fantasy that America will save the day and help Lebanon. But we have we've seen it in Iran and we've seen all over the world, right? It's been a very violent outcome for the people, the locals and the indigenous people who live there.

[00:22:56]>> Yeah. You'll see Mikkelberg. Uh the Israeli army is going to be moving out of three areas in southern Lebanon and then handing over control of those areas to the Lebanese army. But you know, and the goal is to uh demilitarize and disarm Hezbollah. But as we've just heard, the Lebanese army is not going to be capable of doing that. So what is your understanding of what this means? I mean, is Israel withdrawing completely from these areas and handing over control to the Lebanese or will Israel still have strong control over what goes on there?

[00:23:30]>> Obviously, those are early days. It's all experimental and it might be the case that it would fail completely or partially because not everyone is playing the role that the the the memorandum of understanding would like them to to play. And I think sometimes we need to differentiate between what Israel want to achieve strategically with Lebanon and the mindless way that they are doing that as you know just described and using disproportionate and unnecessary force not only against the but against civilians and and leaving trail of of destruction but it's actually Israel interest at the end of the day to expand this pilot to see that the the Banese army is capable to take over and and maintain it while his bala forces are not entering into it. And if this were gradually it's not going to happen immediately eventually to withdraw to the border you know back to the border between Israel and Lebanon and ensure again that there is difference between what is the political border and what is the security border while Israeli troops are not inside in inside Lebanon but this is all taken by by the Lebanese government or by the Lebanese military. Is it possible? Obviously, the the Lebanese army needs support, needs training, but it also need Israel to behave sensibly in a way that it will attract also the the support of the Lebanese people. And this not not done by by destroying villages and and leaving living leaving living scorch behind it.

[00:25:20]>> Right. And you see looking at Israel's goals uh whether it be strategic or political. I mean it wasn't so long ago that the Israeli defense minister Israel Kat was talking about expanding or extending the Israeli border uh into Lebanon. But we've just had the former prime minister Barak who told the Associated Press that the occupation of Lebanon does not serve Israel's security interests. He says, and I'm quoting him here, in order to destroy totally Hezbollah, you'd have to conquer the whole of Lebanon. And most Israelis do not believe that that is possible. Um, so what do you think the ultimate goal is?

[00:25:58]>> Well, Israel tried it in 1982. It didn't actually work in Israel favor. It ended actually with Barak as prime minister withdrawing in the guise of Knight back in May 2000. you know, and and yeah, causing huge damage in in Lebanon.

[00:26:17]Thousands and thousands of people killed there and Isa lost many many soldiers.

[00:26:22]This is not the solution. The solution at the end of the day is work with the Lebanese government to ensure that there is security. Again, at the end of the day, is a Lebanese problem. They need to deal with this one way or or another.

[00:26:37][clears throat] Can't >> serve as a force. serves serves serves Iran, you know, whether it's immediately after October 7, 2023 decided to attack Israel or >> or again a few months ago when the war with with Iran started.

[00:26:55]But Israel's strategic aim and let's forget about some of really mindless politician especially with the extreme rightwing that suggests to a permanent occupation of Lebanon or even to build settlements there. Most of Israel's strategies, politician even understand that as long as the border is secure and the northern communities of Israel are safe because until the war, >> you know, for for until Israel actually >> Yeah.

[00:27:27]>> entered into into Lebanon, >> the northern communities were not safe.

[00:27:32]They were under attack. So the solution is actually going back to UN security resolution 1701 and implement implement it to the letter. We are going to have to leave it there. We've run out of time. But Yosi Meckleberg, Habib Batar, thanks to both of you for being with us.

[00:27:50]And that's it for this edition of The Heat. I'm Aron Daid in Washington.