Can India's student protests shake Modi's government?

[00:00:00]And we're joined this hour by Sumit Ganguli. He's senior fellow at the Hoover Institution at Stanford University. Professor Ganguli, good to see you. We have so many questions for you and I want to start with this one.

[00:00:15]Why has what started as a satirical movement taken on the scale, the intensity and violence we have seen in the past few days? Because look, right now it seems to be much much more than just leaked exam papers.

[00:00:33]The leak basically has ignited this movement because of the uh widespread existence of youth unemployment in India. All manner of people get university degrees in India but find few employment prospects. And what this uh exam leak served uh for was a catalyst.

[00:01:04]It set in motion certain sentiments that had been simmering below the surface for quite some time amongst uh uh educated but unemployed youth in India. and uh uh Obiji Dipk who came up with this idea of the cockroach movement after the uh chief justice of India rather callously referred to India's youth particularly unemployed youth as cockroaches um he effectively brought together the sentiments of any number of young people who were facing acute frustrations because of the inability to find adequate or meaningful work.

[00:01:59]>> So, professor just how significant uh a political challenge are are these protests for the Modi government and what will determine whether the movement can sustain its momentum?

[00:02:12]>> That is really the key question of the moment. much depends on the willingness and ability of these youngsters to sustain this movement because collective action is extremely difficult. The dayto-day demands of living prevent one from sustaining a movement over an extended period of time, particularly when the government is holding most of the cards and has considerable coercive power at its command as demonstrated by some of the videos that you have so effectively shown just prior to my coming on the program and uh consequently it's going to require dedicated action on the part of these youngsters not to relent in the face of government repression and go the government efforts to paint these youngsters as mere malcontents and not and also mo politically motivated by the opposition.

[00:03:27]>> Indeed. Uh speaking of the opposition, I want to get your reaction to the detention of Rahul Gandhi and and other leaders outside the PM's residence and the government sites security. The opposition says it descent is being silent uh silenced. What does this episode say about India's political climate right now?

[00:03:48]>> Well, dissent certainly is being silenced. Uh the protesters outside the prime minister's residence which is heavily guarded um uh were were peaceful and it's a legitimate form of opposition. There was no particular threat that the prime minister faced uh given the extraordinary security blanket that covers the prime minister's residence. Um, and I can speak with some authority because I've driven past it any number of times. And the security around the prime minister's residence is exceedingly um strong. And these protesters, though substantial, were primarily members of parliament and members of the opposition who posed no particular threat. an inconvenience certainly but not a threat by any stretch of the imagination.

[00:04:53]>> So, professor, you know, all you've just said really begs this question even more. You talked about the Indian government holding all the cards. You you talked about, you know, Prime Minister Modi not being threatened in any way. So, so why, you know, has the government reacted so harshly to the protests? I mean, police say, you know, the march turned violent. The opposition and protesters say the response was disproportionate. I'm not there obviously, but the pictures are quite disturbing. How would you explain the reaction from the government?

[00:05:27]The pictures quite frankly are self-evident. Uh these are not doctorred uh or photoshopped pictures. These are liveaction reports. um multiple reliable uh sources have reproduced the same uh videos. So there's no reason to believe that this has been deliberately manufactured by anyone. [snorts] The government is responding with such vigor because it wants to break the back of this movement. It does not want this to become an electoral issue. the government does not want to appear weak.

[00:06:10]Um, and it is probably feeling a bit besieged because they had expected given the sheer heat of the summer in New Delhi and the discomfort that's involved in these protests that it would have dissipated by now. But instead it's now uh going past 3 weeks and it doesn't show any signs of abating despite the significant uh discomfort that these protesters are confronting uh in the ex extreme con uh conditions of New Delhi during the summer. and professor, so the government has promised the toughest action against those behind the alleged paper leaks, but beyond that, what would it take to satisfy the protesters demands and and and generally quell the public anger?

[00:07:10]I think the resignation of the Minister for Human Resources Development, which is in effect the Minister of Education, probably would satisfy them because it would be an important symbolic gesture.

[00:07:28]Historically in India when there have been significant public protests um following an episode an unfortunate episode a minister used to assume personal responsibility and resign. I recall a man called Lal Bahadur Shastri who was the railway minister who promptly resigned in the 1960s when 150 people were killed in a major railway accident. He assumed moral responsibility and promptly resigned.

[00:08:06]Sadly those days in Indian politics are are long gone and today ministers will stay on in office until they become simply politically a liability for the ruling party. So, professor, what next you know for the CJP which I should add at one point seemed ready to call off the protest but hardened its stance after the scale of the violence was revealed. Is is Abijit Dipk you know serious? Is he someone to be taken seriously?

[00:08:44]>> It's curious. This is just a young student who had finished an undergraduate degree in the United States and casually posted something on social media uh saying what if all the cockroaches got together alluding to the remark that had been made by the Chief Justice of India referring to discontented unemployed youth as cockroaches.

[00:09:15]and it seemed to set in motion this much wider movement. I don't think that Dipk had anticipated the scope and the the uh the extent of the reaction it has generated and it points to an underlying sense of deep discontent amongst a a certain segment of India's youth who feel that no government in the recent past has really addressed their concerns about the inadequacy and the uh the lack of employment in the country.

[00:10:03]>> Professor always enlightening and illuminating when you speak to us. We thank you so much for sharing your thoughts. Sumit Ganguli, senior fellow at the Hoover Institution at Stanford University. Thank you.