The Debate About Election Zoning Is Not in the Nigerian Constitution, But We Need It - Amadi / Yusuf

[00:00:01][music] US President Donald Trump has praised President Bolatinu's leadership in tackling terrorism and pledged continued American support for Nigeria's fight against insecurity. In a letter dated July 6 and released by the Nigerian presidency, Trump commended Tinibu's efforts to address violence, particularly attacks affecting Christian communities, saying it is an honor to stand with the Nigerian leader in the fight against terrorism. The presidency says security cooperation between Nigeria and the United States has also expanded with both countries working together on training, intelligence sharing and joint operations. It asks that a coordinated operation in the Lake Chart region in May killed an Islamic state commander Abubaka Al-Minoi along with several of his lieutenants.

[00:01:00]Well, joining us to have this conversation is the policy strategist and group CEO of the global investment and trade company Baba Yu and also online from Inog and the director of the Abuja School of Social and Political Thought and Arise News analyst Dr. Sam Maddi who is also a professor of law.

[00:01:20]Gentlemen, glad to have you join me.

[00:01:22]>> Thank you for having us.

[00:01:24]>> All right, let let me start with you uh Dr. Osama mi before I come to you in this baba yu uh well what Trump is saying I I'm aware that uh uh the house of of reps in America there is not yet a law a bill that if America does not see concrete actions on protecting vulnerable communities and Christian areas America first policy uh then I mean uh they will withdraw aid from Nigeria. So what do you make of this praise from Trump to Tinibu on on this particular issue? I mean that's what he's leading to.

[00:02:12]>> Okay. Again, thank you for having me.

[00:02:15]First let's look at the diplomacy side of it. Okay. So the white house recognizes um they have strategic interests in Nigeria apart from the economic with regards to terrorism and the new US security strategy document connects terrorism to national security and of course connects it also to what they consider as a global persecution of Christians. So on those measures uh the government of Nigeria as cooperative. So the key word here is cooperative because all the initiative that Trump has laid out and some of the actions he have carried out Nigerian government has not impeded them because Nigerian government of course cannot impede them and so this is a nice diplomatic letter to say okay we acknowledge you guys have put us together you've not been obstructionist you've you've supported provided facility and allowed America to act as much as they care to act within you know the the the whole spectrum of fighting terrorism. Again, if you now connect it to what happened in Congress a couple of weeks ago or two two weeks ago, there about you see that um maybe this very important endorsement or recognition does not translate perhaps to much in terms of changing the US policy to Nigeria in substantive sense. So the optics is good and from it's a it's a talking point to say look uh Trump who threatened he's going to deal with Nigeria is now saying I commend your fight and I stand with you that that's a good for every communication but in reality what this amounts to is basically America is happy not not mad or angle Nigeria regarding the way Nigeria supported America's magma word America's strategic interest in fighting terrorism and protecting across the world. Again, what is Nigeria ownic interest? Have we succeeded in fighting the war against terror? Have we succeeded in creating a more stable relationship between Christian communities in the north especially and the Muslim or other communities. So, so primarily this shows that America is Nigeria's facility. but perhaps does not speak much to how US policy changes to Nigeria as we have seen as we see with whether they're able to upgrade Nigeria in terms of you know for foreign policy engagement uh development and and the rest.

[00:04:55]>> All right. Uh my come to you now. Uh optics good. Uh do you see this uh working for Nigeria in stopping that law? I mean it was 50% aid now it's it's been increased to 100. It's not yet law but that is what they are angling for.

[00:05:19]Do you see that affecting that move by the House of Reps?

[00:05:25]Well, I think um if we are following carefully the relationship between President Trump and uh the Congress uh with regards to this particular topic and the we can see synergies around there. You made some points about the resolution of the Congress because I view some of the key issues that touch on the issue of insecurity in Nigeria.

[00:05:49]But for me, I welcome this development even before President Trump welcomed it.

[00:05:54]So it's a good one for us as a country.

[00:05:56]Of course for the optics is a good optic for president Bolainibu.

[00:06:02]Uh whether or not uh we are going to sustain the fight against instit security to make the requisite impacts whether or not we are able to manage the relationship between Muslims and Christians like Dr. Amadi said going forward is what remains to be seen. What is a fact is that America cannot continue to fighting our fight our insecurity issues. We must stand as a sovereign nation to do what we have to do. Collaboration is what we are seeing.

[00:06:29]Strategic engagement is what you are seeing. Indeed, America has also provided some equipments with this particular intervention. We see the taking out of some you know key senior figures of the terrorist. But sustainability is key and as a Nigerian that is what I wait to to see because what is important for me is what is happening to Muslims, Christians and even free pre-thinkers in the Federal Republic of Nigeria moving forward.

[00:06:56]>> Sustainability is key. That's from Babu.

[00:07:00]All right, let's go to uh some other issues now. As Nigeria moves closer to the 2027 general election, the debate over zoning and power rotation is once again rearing its head. [snorts] At the heart of the conversation is a question that has shaped Nigerian politics for decades after President Bolinibu's first term. Should the presidency remain in the south or should power return to the north? Well, the emerging political alignment between Peter Rubi and Rabu Guang Quaso has added a new dimension to the debate. While former vice president Atiko Bubaka's expected presidential bait has prompted APC founding member Osita Okachiku to call on him to step aside arguing that respecting zoning is important for national cohesion, political fairness and stability. Okach has also pointed to previous support for zoning particularly during the controversy surrounding Galak Jonathan's presidential ambition. But opponents of zoning insist that Nigerians should be free to choose whoever they believe is most capable of leading the country regardless of region. So as the 2027 race begins to take shape, is zoning still necessary to maintain Nigeria's political balance or should competence, character, and capacity now take precedence over par rotation?

[00:08:26]All right, I still well that's I still have uh Babai here in the studio and of course Dr. Sam Amadi again I come to you Sami. Well Dr. Um uh Quang Quaso says that himself OB they've signed an agreement on rotation a rotational uh uh uh uh power agreement and uh I want to ask you your immediate reaction to this and how it will help one inclusivity two balance and then three unity declare the Nigerian constitution does not prohibit anyone running for any elective office provided you meet the con you know very bare constitutional qualification uh namely age you know no criminal record and you know registered vote and all that again uh but the people have a right to now decide whether they get you elected. So the whole debate around zoning does not in any way you know imply that anybody has constitutional prohibition or bar for election. So article has a right to aspire to to get elected if people think so. But the key point about zoning as a political convention is that I support zoning and again there are no idealism or puritanism about constitutions institutions institutional eclectism is that you design institution to reflect the issues you perceive. So the problem you meet are your consciousness and belief and that's why you see across the world you see varieties of institutions there are many parts of the world where you have look at Israel his parental system looks like parliamentary is different from Germany so there's no real similar totally civilized system in Nigeria was also a little bit maybe right in proposing it called for multiple vice presidency and in constitutional zoning now what does zoning do for us I think that we need to first be a nation before we go to the ideal so-called you know okay choose whatever I mean at every time there must be somebody or group of persons who are qualified from every zone to be president uh the the the opposition between ideal meritocracy and binary meritocracy is what we need but we also need zoning as a device strategic just like we have federalism as a strategic device to create harmony you know sense of belonging and after some time people will now don't feel marginalized so Nigeria today the arrangement of zoning makes sense and talking to PT and you know I look I listen to it and it's very clear what is saying now if Mr. PB claims and I said look I believe in zoning and I want to run to respect zoning which means whoever comes from the south whether it's Tinubu whether it's PB whether it's Duke Don Duke or any other person running on any other platform or Shweather himself it will do four years because if you say if you accept zoning that means in 20 P should shift to the north the implication then for any person who believes in zoning is that you commit to one time and so PB kind of walked the talk. He had promised that he's going to do only four years and he signed this commitment in paper according to co to co. So for me that's a credit that shows that he was not bluffing. That shows that he was not making things up. He truly believes that the north should take over in 2021 when the south has completed 8 years. That's a big plus for him again is it enough time to change Nigeria people and again 8 years has not changed Nigeria. So in my sense I I I would believe that Nigeria needs more stability, more unity, integration, oneness and then we proceed.

[00:12:22]It's not one day we're not going to change Nigeria in 8 years but we can save Nigeria in 4 years. All right. Uh the the Gandu J is is saying that the Obiwan Quest alliance is dead on arrival that both do not have the governance record or the political strength towards the ruling party and then Osto APC is asking Atiku to step down. It is the th turn of the south. What's your thinking on zoning versus competence? Or can we have zoning with competence? So, should Artiku hit uh Okchuku's uh should I call it advice?

[00:13:06]>> Thank you for that very important question. I have a very um interesting perspective with regards to this uh the nonpartisan nationalistic if you like regional.

[00:13:18]Uh I've been consistent to say that in the spirit of unity, equity, and fairness, zoning should be something that we can use in the short to midterm as we evolve as a nation. Identity politics will remain a crucial issue in Nigerian politics and indeed in the global politics. We see the rise of the far right in Europe, in America and others. And that tells you that these sensitivities are very crucial indeed for a very highly polarized country like Nigeria where we are speaking and paying li service to unity, equity and justice even in the microcosm of state levels.

[00:14:00]It is important that we maintain this sense of balance whether it is real whether it translates to you know dividends of democracy or not the optics is very crucial especially at this point in time. So I've been a proponent of zoning from the point of view as a northerner not responding to what his excellency Ganduj said would respect to him because he's partisan and I'm not partisan. As a northerner I'm a bit concerned because having produced the highest number of presidents and head of states in this country northern Nigeria remains the hotbed of poverty and we have been sliding into the backwards of the abyss of retrogression as a country. So the question is is this really is is having another northerner now for the next four years really going to turn the fortunes of northerners i.e. is the focal point leader at that level now is what will change our fortunes and that is why for me from a strategic perspective we just come out of 80 years of President Muhammad Buhari's administration and he he he went out with a record of generating over 133 multi-dimensionally poor Nigerians out of which over 70% are northerners. So for me, what we need to do as northerners is to use the next four years for a time of sober reflection to restrategize and reset the north and deal with our inherent internal issues that are toxic and and say how do we redefine our mindset with regards to leadership recruitment process and mindset for northern Nigeria so that by 2031 we are cleareyed with regards to what kind of person we should have as a president not just to deal with the issue of northern Nigeria for indeed the governors of those states in northern Nigeria are critical success factors and they have been failing us to say how do we address this multi-dimensionally so that when we have a a president from the north we actually see these things happening in a way a manner not just northern Nigeria but the whole Nigeria is addressed who we should have a president of the federal republic Nigeria not a northern uh president so in my own opinion humbly so we should use the next four years as northerners to deal with our issues and craft a new strategy, reset the north and allow the south to sort out themselves. Whether it is one term agreement or not, that is not my business. Let us allow them to deal with that. But the north should have a re awakened against 2031.

[00:16:25]Otherwise 10 years, 15 years northern president will not help us.

[00:16:29]>> A reawakening for the north. I mean that that talks that speaks volume about canquaso deliver the northwest for be you know if they align as they aligning together and can they show voters that this new partnership is about national interest not just personal gain which is what you're uh discussing there [clears throat] babu to you uh doctor let's move uh because we just have a short time now let's let's move to the ppf FIPC matter for those at the presidential foreign investment promotion council. I mean just for uh people to understand for those who have heard the president has ordered a for investigation and some are of the view that for any real probe or investigation to take place the chief of staff should step aside or he was recently appointed chairman of the presidential working group on policing bill Dr. Sam Well, let me start by saying really there's no administrative logic that says he must step down. No, that's not true. But what's the point about investigation if as the high command is the you know our chief of staff in the Nigerian model which he brought from the US is the head head of presential staffers including ministers including board because he manages the office of the president which is really the policy engine although we have in our own system the ADF who now acts like a secretariat of the federal government but a real manager in terms of directing via through the president or the president directing through him is the chief of staff. So that's a powerful officer. connection there is if this guy is in office and in authority therefore uh could you have a very dependent probe of him that is the question and that goes to the character of the institution doing the probe uh the ICPC uh well maybe doing their best but um many would argue maybe the EFCC will be a much more musular focused uh person to investigate this but at the same time the crisis here is that there's so much cover up ordinarily you could actually have very clear investigation. This is not prosecution yet. Investigation that unears the real facts first and then those facts will suggest that the vice the chief of staff could if he was a civil servant he will put an objective leave but the chief of staff is a civil servant. The chief of staff is a president's appointee just the president can have a minister undergo investigation and keep their job.

[00:19:18]>> Yeah. Thank you. For from a public perspective, the optics is that it doesn't work well. But then this is the law. But again, it's better to have clear transparent investigation. All right. Now, >> thank you. Thank you. We'll leave it there. Let me get Baba Yu's opinion on this because of time we will soon run away. Bye-bye. Baba Yu very briefly. Uh well, just talk about another thing on the PF PFP.

[00:19:42]The fact that the court issued a warrant. uh ad didn't ad couldn't go to for because of his charges he didn't go to the court the court issued a warrant now the police tracked him in a show where he was hiding so police have arrested him in Oshu there just briefly what's your thinking the house of reps has also started investigation they've invited the NSA and the foreign uh uh minister what briefly in >> first of all to humbly contribute to this conversation the message to the presidency and all the aisles of government as a friend of the law in the administration of criminal justice of Nigeria. The motive of disclosing crime does not exonerate perpetrators from culpability and therefore to that extent only demonizing Adi and trying to crowd him out with a view to downplaying this issue or killing this issue is not the issue. If for any reason anybody is found culpable is as guilty as Adme because indeed Adme is neck deep into this issue but we shouldn't make him a scape goat to kill what I call the conspiracy of the establishment.

[00:20:51]>> Thank you so much. Don't make him a scape goat to kill what he calls the [music] conspiracy of the establishment.

[00:20:56]Thank you so much Dr. Labani and of course Baba Isuu for your interesting analysis there. All right that will be it on this edition of Arise Prime Time.

[00:21:06]Please join us again tomorrow from me and the entire team here in Abuja.

[00:21:09]Goodbye and thank you for watching.

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