Explained: Why Pakistan Is Panicking As Houthis Launch 'War' On Saudi, Shut Bab Al Mandeb For Riyadh

[00:00:00]Explained: Pakistan is panicking over the Houthi-Saudi flare-up because any full-blown war risks activating its mutual defense obligations to Riyadh, dragging Islamabad toward a conflict it has tried hard to mediate rather than fight in. As Yemen's Iran-aligned Houthis threaten or partially shut Saudi access through the Bab al-Mandab Strait, Pakistan shivers because disruption of the choke point hits Saudi security and global oil flows, while simultaneously raising the odds that Riyadh will demand concrete support under their defense pact. Islamabad is increasingly scared that it could be forced into the wider Iran war because of its agreement with Saudi Arabia. Since a serious Houthi-Saudi confrontation could be interpreted as an attack on a treaty partner and trigger calls for Pakistani troops, air assets, or at least overt military backing. In this scenario, Crown Prince Muhammad bin Salman could press Army Chief Asim Munir to honor the mutual defense treaty, leaving Pakistan to face Iran's ire if it openly sides with Riyadh and is perceived in Tehran as joining the anti-Iran camp rather than maintaining its carefully balanced neutrality. And as the United States and Israel struggle to decisively defeat Iran in what increasingly looks like another endless, forever war, many in Islamabad fear that Pakistan could become the next big loser, locked into a grinding conflict it cannot afford, with its economy, security, and regional diplomacy all at severe risk.

[00:01:15]A Houthi declaration of a naval blockade on Saudi Arabia could create a host of problems for Pakistan because it threatens Saudi security, global oil flows, and Red Sea shipping routes that Islamabad relies on economically and is politically bound to defend. Pakistan is already grappling with the potential fallout from a Houthi move to block or harass Saudi-linked shipping, as any sustained disruption in the Red Sea and Bab al-Mandab will hit energy prices, trade routes, and Pakistan's fragile economy. On July 19th, the Houthis announced they were imposing a naval blockade on Saudi Arabia's Red Sea coast, according to Al Jazeera and other outlets, signaling an intent to target or deter Saudi shipping near the Bab al-Mandab choke point. In practical terms, the Houthi threat means Saudi tankers and cargo vessels may be unable or unwilling to use the Bab el-Mandeb strait safely, undermining Riyadh's effort to keep a viable alternative sea lane open while the Strait of Hormuz remains at risk. Saudi Arabia has been trying to route some oil exports through the Red Sea and Bab el-Mandeb to hedge against disruptions in the Hormuz corridor. So, Houthi pressure there threatens to close off one of its few remaining contingency routes. On July 19th, Riyadh responded by vowing to take all necessary steps to protect its ships from Houthi attacks. A formulation that could cover everything from naval escorts and air strikes to calls on allies, such as Pakistan, to provide support. Critically, the Houthi blockade threat may activate one of the region's most consequential defense agreements, because it can be interpreted as an attack on Saudi territory and maritime security, rather than just a distant proxy clash. Saudi Arabia and nuclear-armed Pakistan signed a strategic mutual defense agreement in September 2025, committing each side to treat aggression against one as aggression against both under collective security framework. Under this pact, a significant attack on Saudi Arabia, potentially including a sustained naval blockade that endangers its ships and coastline, could legally and politically be treated as an attack on Pakistan as well, opening the door to demands for Pakistani military intervention. A Russian outlet, Sputnik, has explained that this is exactly why Pakistan may be deeply worried about the pact being triggered, since Islamabad would then have to choose between honoring the alliance with Riyadh and risking confrontation with Iran and its allies, or hesitating and damaging a strategic partnership it has long relied on.

[00:03:25]Abdullah Khan, director of the Pakistan Institute for Conflict and Security Studies, said, and I quote, "For Pakistan, the implications are direct and serious.

[00:03:34]Pakistan's interest lies in preventing further escalation through restraint and diplomacy while remaining fully committed to Saudi Arabia's security under the mutual defense framework.

[00:03:45]Any threat to the kingdom's stability is a threat to Pakistan's strategic and economic interests." Unquote. Economic policy analyst Ali Esen has warned that the economic consequences for Pakistan could be severe if the Houthi blockade and related disruptions deepen because the country's already fragile finances leave little room to absorb new external shocks. Esen cautioned that Pakistan could lose its key alternative route for Saudi oil shipments via the Red Sea and Yanbu, which Islamabad has leaned on since the Strait of Hormuz became unreliable and increasingly militarized.

[00:04:15]"If that lifeline is choked off," he argued, "Pakistan would face higher petrol and electricity prices at home, as well as serious disruptions to textile exports bound for Europe, given that many containers still move through Red Sea and Suez-linked routes." He added that Pakistan's broader trade with Europe would be hit by rising freight costs, longer shipping times, and insurance premiums, piling even more economic pressure on a country already wrestling with inflation, debt, and IMF-linked reforms. All of this comes at a time when Pakistan has been trying to act as a mediator between the United States and Iran to stop the war, meaning that any direct economic blow from the Red Sea crisis also threatens to undercut its diplomatic ambitions and credibility as a neutral broker.

[00:05:00]The Royal Saudi Air Force is reported to field around 30,000 personnel and more than 900 aircraft, giving Riyadh a sizeable air arm that underpins its ability to project power and sustain operations along the Yemeni frontier and across the wider region. Saudi F-15S fighter jets, helicopters, and various drones are deployed close to the Yemeni border. According to defense tracking accounts like Basher Port on X, positioning these assets to respond quickly to Houthi threats emerging from northern Yemen. King Fahd Air Base and Prince Sultan Air Base host key platforms such as Eurofighter Typhoons and F-15C/S fighters, making them central hubs for Saudi air defense and strike missions in the southern and central theaters. Together with Khalid Air Base, these three installations form the backbone of Riyadh's southern air campaign capability, providing the runways, maintenance infrastructure, and command facilities needed to sustain high sortie rates against Houthi targets. On the other side of the front, the Houthis possess ballistic missiles, long-range armed drones, and explosive-laden unmanned boats, giving them a diversified arsenal capable of reaching deep into Saudi territory and striking ships in regional waters. They have already used these capabilities to hit Saudi oil facilities and to attack commercial ships in the Red Sea, demonstrating both a willingness and an ability to threaten critical energy infrastructure and maritime trade routes. By leveraging this mix of missiles, drones, and explosive boats, the Houthis have shown they can temporarily choke energy exports and drive up war risk insurance costs, forcing shippers to reroute and adding significant financial burdens to global trade.

[00:06:36]President Donald Trump has approved a landmark 30-year civil nuclear cooperation agreement with Saudi Arabia, according to an AP report.

[00:06:44]The proposed agreement could allow Saudi Arabia to develop a domestic uranium enrichment capability for its civilian nuclear energy program.

[00:06:52]Reports said the deal would place American companies at the center of Saudi Arabia's long-term nuclear development efforts.

[00:06:59]The agreement, reportedly worth tens of billions of dollars, could be announced publicly as early as July 22nd.

[00:07:06]The proposal also includes a joint US-Saudi study on building a uranium enrichment facility inside the kingdom.

[00:07:12]The deal is expected to be submitted to the US Congress, where lawmakers are likely to raise concerns over nuclear proliferation.

[00:07:20]According to the Wall Street Journal, the agreement is not expected to include the IAEA's additional protocol for enhanced nuclear inspections.

[00:07:28]The decision comes as Washington continues its broader campaign to curb Iran's nuclear program and regional influence.

[00:07:35]Experts have warned that allowing Saudi uranium enrichment could create a future pathway toward a potential nuclear weapons capability.

[00:07:43]Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has previously said Saudi Arabia would match Iran if Tehran were to acquire a nuclear bomb.

[00:07:49]The proposed agreement differs from the earlier UAE United States nuclear deal, which prohibited uranium enrichment and set a stricter non-proliferation benchmark.