CRIMEA IN CRISIS! No power, no food – Russians prepare for mass evacuation after Ukrainian strikes!

[00:00:00]Well, there are two points to consider here. The first is long range sanctions, that is strikes against those targets that could in some way contribute to the war, to its continuation and the destruction of all of that. So, this essentially means extensive stockpiles of military weaponry, um let's say essential fuel reserves or various other critical materials that could somehow function as a fundamental foundation for industrial production. Looking at this from another perspective, sanctions still urgently need to be continued and they should be made significantly more rigorous and comprehensive so that absolutely no materials or components at all get into Russia that could assist in the manufacturing and assembly of new weapons. Because even if something is completely obliterated or destroyed, as long as Russia maintains the industrial capacity and the inherent potential to manufacture and there are still some supplies available either directly from certain countries or by finding ways of circumventing international sanctions, this still gives them the opportunity to produce additional weapons and continue the war indefinitely. But if on the one hand there is no arsenal left and on the other hand there are no supplies then in principle Russia will not be able to produce weapons or replenish its stockpiles and thus will not be able to continue attacking Ukraine. This means essentially that there will be no way to wage war. This puts pressure on Russia to finally come to the negotiating table.

[00:01:26]It is no longer possible to hide the true state of affairs. Take the Crimean Peninsula for example. It is systematically turning from a trophy jewel into a territory without electricity, gasoline, and now even without food, which by the way is especially notable in the summer.

[00:01:41]Putin's security forces are already making evacuation lists for people important to them and their families.

[00:01:47]And those visitors from the Russian Federation who love the Ukrainian Black Sea are now recording tearful videos from the lines to leave Crimea. To what extent does the shift in rhetoric from even if stones fall from the sky to I don't want to leave Crimea represent let's say a reputational blow not only for Putin but for his entire system of power.

[00:02:10]I think that in general the strikes that have occurred not only in Crimea but also those that hit Moscow and deeper into Russia they more clearly demonstrate Putin's inability to defend himself. They reveal the vulnerability of his system. To put it more clearly, by launching aggressive military strikes against Ukrainian territory, he basically finds himself severely lacking the necessary resources that could help him effectively protect and defend his own territory. And this also demonstrates the vulnerability of Russia's entire security system. And so when Russia loudly declares that it is a strong country, this shows both to Russians and to its partners that firstly it cannot protect its own citizens. So how can it help any regional partners or even as the situation with Iran has shown Russia is not the kind of partner you can really rely on even if you have good agreements in place and I think that as a whole collectively this affects Russia's position on the international stage that is from that leader from that country that is supposedly so big people used to say well Ukraine how can you possibly fight against Russia it's so big but now many countries even the United States have started to view Russia differently.

[00:03:22]And we can see from recent statements, even those made in the United States, that Russia is now regarded not as a partner country, but more as an adversary. But if we return to the issue of Crimea, that was a source of pride.

[00:03:35]There were statements about how we got it back, that it would become a paradise and just how much money they actually poured into it. The bridge alone is worth mentioning. And it's clear that this investment was strategic for them, a place where they could station the fleet, develop tourism, and even settle spies. And now there's this kind of disappointment. This is a serious blow to the domestic agenda, isn't it?

[00:03:59]It is because Russians really wanted to get Crimea back. It's also kind of strange this nostalgia they have because in principle um Crimea is of course strategically important since uh as you said you can have a fleet there conduct intelligence operations and uh basically it's also a place where Russians loved to vacation and now this place the sense of Crimea's return as they used to say the sense of actually having Crimea as part of their territory is kind of fading because in principle even though they declare that Crimea belongs to Russia it's still inconvenient to travel there and people don't really want to be there. And basically the question arises, why does Russia need such a Crimea? Why do Russians need this kind of Crimea at all? Because obviously a peaceful Crimea is one thing, but a Crimea that is constantly under attack is a completely different story. And it seems to me that even among ordinary citizens in Russia, there is already a sense of dissatisfaction with what is happening. But they still don't have the critical mass needed to somehow influence Putin's decisions. I think it will take a little more time for not only ordinary citizens, but I believe even according to public opinion polls, it will become clear that people are not very satisfied. But I think that people who are close to Putin will also start thinking about what to do in this situation. So let's continue and talk specifically about those people who are close to Putin since Robert Provi also known as Madya is actively involved in the issue of the shadow fleet.

[00:05:28]183 vessels no longer transport Russian oil, grain, or other cargos in circumvention of sanctions. And that, you have to admit, is an impressive result. But it seems that even the Russian oligarchs were impressed as well. They are moving capital out of the Russian Federation and buying real estate abroad. And it turns out that even those who were allowed to steal for decades under Putin's regime no longer believe in Russia's bright future. This is already a signal, a very troubling sign for the Kremlin dictator. Of course, because if capital is being moved out, it means Russia will have less and less money, there won't be any investments because um sanctions because uh those countries that let's say the west would like to invest, they won't do it because it's kind of inconvenient or or not very safe since they could end up under sanctions. So, um it turns out that maybe someone else will invest, maybe China will invest, but China also has its own agenda. And this means that in principle at some point Putin might end up alone um alone in his desire in his desire to keep waging the war. And I think that at that moment when he is left alone, there are two options.

[00:06:40]Either he will be left without money and alone and that let's say will be the path toward eventually negotiating or he will remain under pressure either from some of his partners or even from those people who might see opportunities to somehow stop all this to stop the war and in a way bring Russia back onto a path where it can make money.

[00:06:59]>> Well, it seems that Putin is so confident in his victory. Maybe those around him are showing him papers claiming that he is winning, but the losses at the front are terrible. 30,000 a month or even more. We remember that even this is not the limit. And so it's necessary to sit down at the negotiating table and in the process of organizing a meeting between the Ukrainian president and Putin, many international players are trying to help. These are the USA, European countries, Turkey, and Arab states. In your opinion, which of these mediators actually has real leverage over the Kremlin dictator? And is it possible, for example, that the position of the Arab world or Turkey could move this issue from a deadlock?

[00:07:40]From my perspective, it appears that it is still the United States and China that can exert significant influence over Russia. I see that yes, it is certainly possible that the platform could be the nations across the Arab world or perhaps Turkey. While they could serve as a useful platform for high level negotiations for Putin, these specific countries are simply not as globally influential or strategically powerful as the United States and China, at least not to the extent that he would readily agree with their arguments or change his stance based on their pressure. Yes, at some point if he feels that he needs to show or demonstrate some willingness and readiness for negotiations, he might start playing his game again. Because when Putin says he is ready to sit down at the negotiating table, it does not mean that he will actually sit down and reach any agreements. In other words, it could be, let's say, yet another endless negotiation process that ultimately leads nowhere. Alternatively, we might once again hear those same demands from Russia, which have not changed for many months now. And this means that in principle these negotiations will once again drain a lot of resources from the mediators who will be assisting in the negotiation process but there will be no result. I think that Putin needs to feel that he has no choice but to negotiate and then I believe that could lead to some kind of result. But I would truly like to say that Vladimir Putin has a very significant problem which is that as the specific person who originally started this war um for him this entire conflict is not just about economics. It is deeply emotional. It is simply a fundamental desire to possess and control territory. And that's why I think he doesn't see the casualties that exist. He doesn't see the negative consequences that this war has for Russia itself. And this is the most terrifying and chilling aspect of the situation that even if there are a staggering number of casualties and significant losses, it does absolutely nothing to alter or shift his firm position regarding the war. Marie, you are absolutely right in noting that for Putin, the war is the very meaning of his life and the blood that so-called supports his presidency. In your opinion, literally, we have 30 or 40 seconds left on air. Who else gives him reason to be so confident? who is helping him so that he can continue his war against Ukraine.

[00:10:01]>> I think the problem is that for example, China is still helping and even if it's not openly, it still supplies certain things needed for the war and of course buys energy resources. Even those countries that buy something from Russia give him hope that the issue can somehow be resolved. Plus, there are those countries that help evade sanctions. In other words, these are the partners who give hope that it is still somehow possible to keep making money despite all the restrictions imposed against Russia. But that doesn't mean it will always be this way. Therefore, sooner or later, the Russian Federation will have to take its place and end this war.

[00:10:35]Thank you for joining us. Marina Regel, PhD in political science and expert in international relations, was with us live.