🔴 LIVE: ES Weekly Close — Watching Order Flow as Sentiment Data Hits | Matt

[00:01:48]Heat. Heat.

[00:11:54]What's up? Good morning everybody.

[00:11:56]Welcome in.

[00:12:02]Happy Friday. Hope you guys are doing well.

[00:12:13]Good morning. How's everybody's trading week going?

[00:12:19]Good morning. Be busy.

[00:12:23]Elena, good morning.

[00:12:27]Tom, good morning. Welcome in, guys.

[00:12:30]Welcome in.

[00:12:33]It's going well here. Solid week. Uh, we caught uh the downside of the Vshape week that we formed early and the upside. So, it was a pretty good week.

[00:12:43]Little bit of tricky market conditions.

[00:12:44]Now, let me know in the chat how you guys are doing this week with the current market conditions. Are you trading ES? Are you trading ENQ? Are you trading something else?

[00:12:54]Good morning, TS man.

[00:12:57]Welcome in. Welcome in. Let me know in the chat how you guys are doing this week. What's been working well for you?

[00:13:03]What's you've been struggling with? And let's talk about it on stream today.

[00:13:08]Taking trades on gold. People are still trading gold, huh?

[00:13:12]So, quick shout out to our sponsors.

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[00:13:35]Nothing else like it in the industry. Uh if you want to be a part of the community, check out the chart fanatics discord and check out uh the channels there. There's some analysis that I share in in there as well. Also, if you want to be part of the giveaways today, those will be there in the chart fanatics live discord as well.

[00:13:58]So, make sure you are in there to get that. Make sure you co use code CF20 on Tradezella as well. Another one of our great sponsors and Alpha Capital, same uh check out the codes there. All right, let's get into some analysis for the day. Uh this is bookmap orderflow tool that I use and let me get some of my uh volume profiles going here.

[00:14:26]Let's first go through some daily charts to give you guys an overview of what I'm looking at. Do I think INQ will go for prior week high? Possibly. We already took out the prior week low, so it would be wild if we came and took out the highs, too. But anything's possible. I don't I don't try to put a lid on this, right? The market, you know, looking at the last couple months. Uh it's just just straight up just an absolute straight up rocket ship. So, not trying to call a top.

[00:14:59]Somebody said lost then went break even, lost again.

[00:15:05]Definitely uh size down. You don't want to burn through your draw down too quickly if you're trading a prop firm account. Size down, take it slow, get some base hits, get the momentum back in your favor, get your head right, there's something to be said about trading from a place of confidence where you're not uh down on yourself, right? Uh the more confident you are in your execution and what you're looking for, patient for that, it's like a self-fulfilling cycle of of winning. And on the opposite end of that, if you are in your head about draw down and not doing so well and then you size up to try to make it back, it's like a self-fulfilling cycle of losing more and more.

[00:15:45]So, there's a lot of human aspects to this game to be mindful of, Carrie. All right, so let's get into some analysis today and what I'm watching out for.

[00:15:59]Let's get into some analysis here, guys.

[00:16:06]So, pulling up a screenshot here of ES and ENQ. I've been leaning on trades a lot more on ENQ lately, to be honest with you guys. The volatility has just been a little better for me. Risk versus reward has been way higher on kind of intraday scalps. Just been I've just been liking it. I go through phases like this over the years where I kind of lean more on one or the other. I've historically always traded, you know, the S&P more and that's probably 90% of what I trade, but recently, the last couple months, I've been finding ENQ a lot more tradable for me.

[00:16:41]So, ES daily chart here on the left hand side, ENQ daily chart here on the right hand side. You can see so far we've had a pretty v-shaped week on both instruments. Uh, we came down and tested prior lows hit this little demand area where we last rallied aggressively out of after consolidating for like a day and bounced off of it. So now going into today, we're really close to all-time highs.

[00:17:10]This place where sellers came in last time. We're on the right side of a V-shaped recovery here and the market has slowed down a little bit here. Uh kind of balancing a little bit. Um so that to me personally is a little bit of difficult context. We've already had a V-shaped kind of recovery on the week.

[00:17:29]We're near all-time highs. We're kind of at the right side of this V.

[00:17:35]And we're going into a holiday weekend as well. So, there's a lot of things. And also, you know, I'm on a ripping hot week as well. Personally, uh caught four figure trades pretty much every day this week. Um, so ripping hot week. We're coming into Friday on a holiday weekend and we're kind of at the top right side of a V-shaped week here.

[00:18:02]Uh, near all-time highs. So, to me, I'm exercising patience and caution for sure today, if that makes sense.

[00:18:21]Ablast, good morning. Welcome in. Welcome in.

[00:18:25]Checking out the chat to see if I missed anything. So, that's just kind of the overall daily picture here, right, that I'm looking at. The market was relatively balanced in this range here.

[00:18:39]Uh, and then aggressively kind of rallied out of here again.

[00:18:45]So, now we've kind of made that aggressive rally. We're kind of coming up to the highs, but we're at a place where these aggressive sellers came in.

[00:18:53]Last time we were here at all-time highs, these aggressive sellers came in here. Last time we were up here at alltime highs, whoa, there was a massive surge volatility. Just big uh big buy orders just came in right at the highs here.

[00:19:08]Uh so we've seen some big buying already coming in multiple times.

[00:19:13]If I see that fail to break out here, like these value area highs that we'll talk about in a second, I may be interested in a quick counter trend scalp for a little bit of kind of a mean reversion, but I don't love that setup so much. I'll I'll show you guys the volume profiles here and we'll take a little bit more behind the curtains look for the exact kind of trade setups that I'm watching out for today.

[00:19:39]So, if you guys aren't in the chart fanatics live discord, I did share in there this whole setup and the exact breakdown on it, the exact confirmation setups. This is one of my favorite setups. So, yesterday in the morning, uh we had this range basically here on ES and NQ. took this trade on NQ. But if you look at yesterday morning, we had this range that price had formed kind of a relatively like bell curve volume distribution here where the market was was balanced. And then if we see the lows at the value area low, a significant amount of selling repeatedly kept coming in but could not break it down. So I was viewing that as a large passive buyer absorbing those lows. To me, that was a very bullish signal. And I actually started out the morning a little bit a little bit bearish thinking that we would trade into these lows, but this was these lows were kind of the target of that. And then once we hit that, that's where I saw all this absorption taking place around these value area lows. And I ended up taking that long for, you know, a nice couple thousand win back up into the range.

[00:20:44]Now, I under capitalized. I took the high probability piece for that for me.

[00:20:48]Once I see that is just the bounce back up into the range. Sometimes we get super aggressive and we completely break out the other side, which we did, but I was already done. I already made my money and moved on with my day at that point.

[00:21:01]But going into today, that being the context, we ended up breaking the highs.

[00:21:05]We saw, you know, a lot of big orders coming in there and then we've continued. This was a key spot that I've marked here, uh, because of the big orders that came in. uh two spots, you know, around here and around here. There was some big orders that came in. So, and same thing on on uh ES here, but I didn't mark it. And this was also just above the value area high there. And some of this was the the market on closed orders yesterday. Um but you can see the big buying that came in there that led to the breakout of those highs.

[00:21:41]So, this is a key spot that I was watching this morning. I marked this out early this morning in the pre-market and you can see we already dipped into it and absolutely launched. So that was my that was kind of already my A+ setup for today that I kind of marked out this morning in the pre-market and honestly it kind of unfortunately already played.

[00:22:01]Uh so now we're kind of back at these highs. Now I do want to point out something interesting that I'm seeing.

[00:22:07]ES has gotten a lot more aggressive here at the highs than NQ has. And on NQ, I'm seeing big orders there, big orders there, big orders there. So, we've seen a lot of big buying in this range here at the at the value area high and we haven't gotten really continuation above that yet. We might and we might go break it out. So, what I'm watching for here this morning is to see if that continues. We do have kind of a baly kind of range forming here, but overall higher time frame market's very bullish. We're near all-time highs. We're at the top right side of a V-shaped week. So, it's a little dangerous trying to catch the high for like a mean reversion on this.

[00:22:54]Uh not the best quality to try to catch a top for a mean reversion. Although, it's possible. And if it does become that, it could be huge. But just not best quality. I'll just say that.

[00:23:08]Nonetheless, you know, given especially on ENQ here, which is relatively weaker, given the big buying that's come into these highs around this value area high multiple times now, uh I want to gauge this as a key location today. um as well as if we do drop back down towards one of these extremes. I really don't want to execute much inside this. This just is not a great location for me and I don't want to execute much. So, what I'm watching out for here, um if if ES finds some major resistance and somehow drops back into the range, that will be nice confluence, too. But if INQ fails to break this out with all this absorption going on, I may look for a scalp back down into this range. But that's just not super high quality. I'm watching it nonetheless. So, just a heads up. If we do drop down to one of these points, these will be key areas for me to see if buyers step in. Either just a strong reaction to take a scalp off of or it could be a bottom of the day as we rally back up into the range. I once again, this is why I'm saying it's a little tough. I don't love that as much because it already played here in the pre-market. I already marked this out, you know, at like 6:00 a.m. this morning and went on a run and I came back and we kind of already hit that zone, already rallied all the way into the highs off of it. So, I'm like, damn. You know, that if a setup like that already plays, it's not as good. It could still play, it's just not as great to me. Uh, if we come down there again, if that makes sense.

[00:24:48]Uh, let's see. The other scenario would be if ES continues to lead higher this morning uh and we continue to hold outside this value area here now and you know if this is a passive seller that ends up getting exhausted and fails and we do kind of squeeze out of that then I'll possibly look for quick scalps along that momentum into the highs.

[00:25:23]makes sense. I'll drop that screenshot if anybody's interested in the chart fanatics discord as well.

[00:25:47]All right. So, that's what I'm watching here this morning, guys. Let's take a look over here at NQ. You can see the really aggressive buying that's come in multiple times this morning. Um, and that's where that big buying hit that I'm watching as possibly absorption, but it's just not a great place to look for an absorption top reversal. Not great market context overall.

[00:26:10]You can see we're kind of just we had a lot of aggressive buying that came in off some news headlines this morning and then since then we just continue to grind our way up here.

[00:26:32]Yeah, I'd love to see a reversion, but uh I mean honestly probably the most likely scenario we see is just that quick little pullbacks continue to get bought and we just kind of continue to grind higher. Or if we do pull back, then we just kind of volatility just kind of gets a little lower and dies out here inside this value area.

[00:26:54]That's why I'm a little cautionary today. Those are to me kind of the most likely scenarios. if some news comes out, especially around the geopolitical stuff with the US and Iran right now, the war going on, that could be a major uh driver of a shift in conditions and stuff like that. Uh but I think right now uh the last headline that I saw is like a Pakistani leader is heading over to uh is heading over to Iran to you know hopefully mediate peace talks. And so to me, it just seems unlikely that we're going to have like imminent strikes given that a pack a leader from Pakistan is heading over to Iran for continued talks right now. So it's it seems unlikely to me we're going to have like immediate escalation strikes or something like that. Um that could spark volatility here today or over the weekend, but it could. Um so what I am watching out for is if any headlines come out maybe about a failure of you know break communication breakdown but with uh you know the these peace talks kind of being mediated by Pakistan right now. Am I correct with that? Is that it that was I think I saw that on the headlines there.

[00:28:25]kind of looking at this. There's some aggressive selling that's coming in now.

[00:28:33]So, little Whoa. Heads up.

[00:28:38]Dangerous uh market conditions here, guys.

[00:28:43]I expect that the tape could also be thin today, which could lead to these really impulsive spikes up and down.

[00:28:52]I expect the tape could be pretty thin today. We'll watch the order book here and that could lead to some pretty substantial spikes up and down. Just just dangerous dangerous conditions here this morning.

[00:29:08]Uh, I didn't mention, but we also have consumer sentiment, Michigan consumer sentiment news, uh, on 10:00 a.m. at 10 a.m.

[00:29:24]Bob asked, "Where do you get your news from?" I use a tool called Market AI.

[00:29:28]And um, also, you know, a good place is like First Squawk on Twitter or things like that.

[00:29:41]or sorry X not Twitter. You know what I mean?

[00:29:53]Yeah. Inside the middle of this value area to me if we just hang out in here is a very cautionary day.

[00:30:04]Yeah. Na biz likely think about, you know, people stepping away. We're kind of already at the top top right side of this V-shaped week that we've had. Uh markets bouncing out a little bit.

[00:30:17]There's some unknowns around the geopolitical stuff. We're going into a holiday weekend. So, I can just see a lot of people just kind of stepping away today and take being thin.

[00:30:27]Always put yourself in the position of other players in the market and think about, you know, what are likely scenarios you could see other people reacting to, institutions reacting to, things like that in the market. Um, and that can help give you an edge, not necessarily to execute off of, but just understand the context going on.

[00:31:01]Doubles asked, can I give a brief overview of bookmap? Yeah, for sure. So, looking at this uh these bubbles, so this is my ES chart. This is NQ. We can go over this really quick before the market opens here. Um, so what I'm looking at on the heat map is these dark yellow, orange, and red spots are showing me passive orders. So above current price, which we can see the the ben ask here. Um, if it's above price, that's a passive seller. Below price, that's a passive buyer. And these bubbles are showing me delta on ES. So, these bubbles are showing me delta, which is the difference between aggressive buyers and aggressive sellers. Sorry, my son's banging on the door. Hey, buddy.

[00:31:52]Um, so these bubbles are showing me the delta, which is the difference between aggressive buyers and sellers.

[00:32:02]Um, the larger the bubble, the larger the delta. And then down here at the bottom, you also see these bars that show me in that zone there, the the cumulative delta on a bar there for that range.

[00:32:18]And then down here at the bottom, the cumulative volume delta. This is showing me the delta on the day. The difference you can see overall since I've had bookmap open here, the cumulative volume delta, there's 3,300 positive lots.

[00:32:30]There's 3,300 more aggressive buyers on the day so far than sellers. That doesn't mean there's more buyers than sellers overall. There's always the same, right? You just have to understand there's a difference between aggressive and passive. Every transaction that occurs in the market is between an aggressive buyer and a passive seller and a aggressive seller and a passive buyer. If you're confused at all about those concepts, right now I'm dropping a completely free course on YouTube going over an intro to orderflow trading. And if you want to check that out, I'm releasing a new episode today and every Friday over the last few weeks, there's already I think this is the fourth episode coming out. So if you haven't checked that out on my YouTube channel, uh go ahead and head over there and check that out after the stream today.

[00:33:18]So looking at in Q there's some slight differences in my configuration. Mainly just the bubble. You can see how I have the bubbles split here. And so these bubbles are showing me the total volume.

[00:33:30]So the size of the bubble is giving me a visual of the total volume that's been transacted. And there's no time frame for this. This is the real-time tape as orders come in. If you see these dotted vertical lines here, it's showing me five minute intervals right now. So there's 5 minutes of time between that.

[00:33:46]But I can zoom in as granularly as I want. I can see the orders as they come in like virtually by this the millisecond here. And if I expand price on the right hand side, you can see how granularly I view this. Can't I could this would be wicked to try to view this intraday because of how fast NQ moves.

[00:34:05]But you can see I can get as granular as I want or I can zoom out. The more I zoom out, the more these bubbles are going to group orders together. But so I'm seeing the total volume of transactions on these bubbles, but in each bubble is showing me like a pie chart of the aggressive buyers and the aggressive sellers that occurred in there.

[00:34:31]So you can see price moved up. There was a surge of aggressive buying here which we can see the delta of and you can see how price moved up. But there were passive sellers right here that met those aggressive buyers. So, you know, we'll see.

[00:34:55]You can see when the tape just got swept like this. Look at these bubbles.

[00:34:59]There's There was no selling. There was like zero selling this whole way up until price spiked. And then you can see where aggressive selling started to step in.

[00:35:14]So yeah, this is the current order book.

[00:35:17]Uh I forgot to cover this. So this is the same on ES and NQ here.

[00:35:23]This is simply a current order book. So this is the level two. You can see um this is directly related to the heat map right here. Right? So you can see where the passive orders are on the heat map and you can see where there's a large spike 175 lots here on ES. You see that dark orange spot on the heat map, right?

[00:35:42]So I can see how thick or thin the bid is here. Bid and askar here. Um and then the session volume profile. This is showing me a volume profile on the day, right? Which I also have like on my D chart and trade and footprint chart as well. So I have several different volume profiles that I can see throughout the day.

[00:36:02]Um, this is showing me the session volume profile. So, for this full session that I've had bookmap open, this is showing me the volume profile for the full day since since I've had bookmap open. The CVP, the chart range volume profile is showing me the volume profile just on the chart that I'm zoomed into.

[00:36:23]So if I like zoom in here, I will see the volume profile just for this what's on my screen right now. So if I zoom into a specific range on bookmap then I will see you know just the like this I will see just the volume profile for this range.

[00:36:46]You don't necessarily need all this. I think all of this sounds probably complex to people that are beginning.

[00:36:52]The more you use this over time, the more simple and to understand it becomes.

[00:36:58]Um, but that's kind of a highle overview of everything. Now, some of the same information I'll show you here like on my deep chart charts that I have for ES and NQ. Similar information, just a I like I like having this on my screen.

[00:37:17]And I used to have just basic candle charts on my other screen over here and I've upgraded that to deep chart. So what I have here is the uh the deep trades indicator on these bubbles. So instead of just seeing everything like I see on bookmap, I have this configured to only show me bubbles where there's large orders greater than like 95 lots on ENQ. And I have this set to I think 150 lots on ES. So, it's only going to show me a bubble if there was like a big order greater than whatever size I configure. Again, for in Q, I have that set to 95 lots right now or larger. In ES, I have that. So, I can see where there's big delta hitting like that or like this area here of aggressive buyers. And then I also have my volume profile set here much like I have on bookmap. But you can see I have a full session volume profile there where the value area high is value or sorry low value area low is value area high point of control. And then I can I can add the information of where big orders are coming in. Instead of having to look at, you know, bookmap to see that and then looking at my charts and volume profile, I can look at my volume profile. I can see where the distribution is. I can see where there's low volume nodes. I can see where the value area high is. And then I can also see where big orders are coming in.

[00:38:51]T trader. I'm trading both ES and ENQ.

[00:38:55]Uh I've been leaning more towards ENQ lately, but uh this tape is super wild right now on NQ. Been seeing this thing get absolutely smoked up and down here.

[00:39:08]Freaking 30 40 points and milliseconds here already in the pre-market. So, this could be a wild morning here.

[00:39:24]Jeez. Good grief.

[00:39:27]Yeah, this could be a this could be a wild one here this morning, guys. Just just the speed of the tape. How thin it is. Look at this. Like two, three contracts.

[00:39:36]Just super fast, super thin.

[00:39:39]Middle of uh this range here right now.

[00:39:42]I would exercise caution.

[00:39:50]I don't look at bubbles and volume on MNQ or what's it called? MEES. I do even if I like back in the day when I traded micros. I trade full-size contracts now.

[00:40:02]But even when I traded micros, I still do all of my analysis on the full-size contract. So on NQ on ES just a lot of aggressive buying here just out of the gate ripping this thing.

[00:40:20]We popped over the value area high here over those big aggressive buyers. So need to see what the reaction here is if we drop back into that. I'm looking at like 296 to like 29580 which is like roughly this area here where we opened up.

[00:40:55]Huge amount of aggressive buying just surging in here.

[00:41:03]Seems like the markets just can just shrug off anything lately. There's no it's any any economic concerns, wars, anything. It doesn't even matter. People are just buying this [ __ ] Doesn't even matter, dude. Nothing seems to discourage people from just buying this thing.

[00:41:39]Some big buying just hit up here near the overnight highs now on ENQ. Big buy orders just hit there.

[00:41:48]So I'll show you a difference here.

[00:41:52]You can see we see that big cluster of of buying right there hit and you can see it right here on deep chart. So I basically I didn't you know this there wasn't any significant orders here. we just shot up with just a lot of aggressive buying.

[00:42:09]But uh if I just look at NQ here on deep chart, you can see we aggressive buying was coming in here and already in the pre-market we spiked over it. And that's why I'm like, okay, let me let me now watch what happens here. If we pull back near where these kind of bigger orders came in a couple times around the value area high here and see if that holds those kind of trades though, I'm not looking for a massive home run in in these conditions. I'd just be looking for kind of like a quick base hit into the highs.

[00:42:56]If the momentum is still there, if the big buyers are still there, see bids stacking up here.

[00:43:08]Good morning, Billy. Welcome in.

[00:43:14]So, back down again a little bit here.

[00:43:20]Some aggressive buying coming in.

[00:43:30]Took that long there off 600.

[00:43:34]Took half profit here. Trailed my stop to 605.

[00:43:41]I liked the bids that came in right there, right at the top of that zone that I marked. We'll see if it continues into the all-time highs. So, I got another contract on for all-time highs or break even here around 605 on Q.

[00:44:09]Yeah, I took that long on that dip.

[00:44:15]I don't like moving my screens around while I'm in a trade here, guys. But you can see where I got in right there on the dip right at that zone I shared with you guys. I'm in one more contract.

[00:44:24]Looking for it to break the highs here.

[00:44:26]You can see the red line is my order.

[00:44:28]I'm actually going to just cut this if this stalls right here. Oh, shoot. This is why I don't like moving my screens around.

[00:44:42]I'm going to boost my stop now to my first takeprofit which was around 2630.

[00:44:48]I don't want to give anything further than that back.

[00:44:55]Oh, it got so close there to my second take profit.

[00:45:05]I don't really want to see that drop any further than that. Move that up there.

[00:45:27]See, I'm looking for this momentum to continue right away. And if it dies out, then I'm going to take it off. That's why I'm aggressively boosting my stop here once I see this pullback hold. I want to see this thing shoot into the highs here.

[00:45:44]Let it breathe. See if it squeezes these highs quickly here.

[00:45:52]I'm willing to risk some a little profit here. If it blasts these highs, it could go quick.

[00:46:02]But if it pulls back, I'm just going to let it take me out here.

[00:46:14]Get a nice squeeze up here.

[00:46:23]All right, I'm good. I'm out.

[00:46:27]$1,100 on that contract, $400 on that first contract.

[00:46:33]That's it, guys.

[00:46:37]That was the exact zone I just gave you guys. Can you get any more precise than that?

[00:46:42]And now I take it off, market exit, and it squeezes the highs. Gosh darn it.

[00:46:47]Oh my goodness.

[00:46:52]That's it.

[00:46:55]So, like I said, if that momentum continues right away this morning, then I'm looking for just a base hit off of it. It may keep going, but I'm just, you know, look at guys, I drew that box all the way back here. Why was I looking here? Because look at that big order that came in there on the heat map and that huge momentum. Look at look at all this aggressive buying that came in here. Right there. So, if we pull back there, and what did I see when we pulled back there? Bids stepped back in again, which told me instant buy. Look at this.

[00:47:29]See that on the heat map? All that aggressive selling surged into there.

[00:47:33]Got bought. Got bought. That's big money buying. That's not small money buying, right? That's big money buying. So, as soon as I saw that, like literally as soon as I saw that, I'm in.

[00:47:49]Right. Right. And I had a stop just under the low that had formed there. It pulled back on me like a millisecond in shot. Right. So I was only risking that low like not even 10 points. Just barely like nine points there.

[00:48:02]First I was looking for a quick pop. Uh I actually meant to push my stop out. So when I enter I enter with an OCO order that puts a 10point stop, 20 point target. This shot so quick I couldn't I moved this order but I didn't even get a chance to move this order and it closed for 20 point take profit. I kind of wanted that first take profit to be like up here but I didn't it happened so quick I couldn't even really move my OCO order in time and it took profit there.

[00:48:33]I wanted to take profit like up here a little bit further about 30 points but it's all good on that first first one.

[00:48:44]So that first contract was like 2 R. And once, by the way, once that hits for 2 R there, my stop trails just above break even. Then you can see once it broke that high, I let it pull back and hold.

[00:49:00]It held this 20 EMA that's tied to my footprint bar. Once it holds that, I trail my stop to that low. Let it break those highs again. Right? And then this time I got a little impatient and I just said, "All right, my goal, my take profit here was the break of the high.

[00:49:13]I'm getting a little greedy. Let me just take it off."

[00:49:21]And that is it. You can see why I got a little hesitant though, how it kind of stalled here. Kind of messed with my emotions a little bit. And then I was like, you know what? This was my target right here. And I got kind of greedy.

[00:49:33]Although I had reason to. The market's at all-time highs. And look what happened since then.

[00:49:38]So, this w it was appropriate for me to to boost that target out and just keep trailing my stop. And I would have made a lot more money here had I kind of stuck to that. But that's okay.

[00:49:51]$1,500 in what, like 10 minutes of work this morning. Not even. I spent like 5 minutes of work there. I was in that trade for 934 till 37. 3 minutes. So, $1,500 for 3 minutes of work this morning.

[00:50:14]And the reason for that, guys, was not random, right? That wasn't just a random I saw the market going up this morning, let me buy it. Look at this. It's because we had a balance area. We had big orders defending the highs and then we broke out of it with a surge of momentum, right? And that's why I had this very specific zone here, which is the same area that I marked and showed you guys on bookmap that I was looking if it pulls back, I'm going to look for bids to defend it and just scalp it into the highs and use that momentum that we've got this morning. That's it.

[00:50:47]That's just a quick easy win.

[00:50:55]So whether you use you I could have used deep chart alone for this like this is all the information I need right here.

[00:51:02]Look at that little low volume node where we broke out there the big orders that were here. You know if you use deepd dom is another great tool here has it all in one place on deep chart. So you can get something like this and I'm evaluating that as well. Or you have just this and a footprint chart that's all you need. And then we see this area got defended at the top of this range.

[00:51:24]Defended, defended, and then broke out of it with a surge of momentum. We got a low volume node there. This specific zone right around the value area high.

[00:51:32]Looking for just a little pull back into. Not trying to catch, you know, a full daily trend to the upside. It might, but I know in the next 5 to 10 minutes there is extremely likely going to be continued momentum into those highs. So, I'll just scalp it up into those highs.

[00:51:53]You got to be faster at everything on NQ for sure. And look guys, if I would have got greedy, that would have just taken me out. Break even.

[00:52:10]No, I still am above break even here, but I probably wouldn't have held through that.

[00:52:19]So, this is still a key area. You can see this low volume area here. Now, on the volume profile, I'm going to draw a box here. So, look at my volume profile here. Do you see this spot? This is a spot where if aggressive buyers are still coming in this morning, they they want to come in around this low volume node here. And you can see how we bounced off of it. I marked that a little late for you guys, but look at all the bids stepping in in here. If if big buyers have intent to keep moving higher today, they'd probably want to defend here around this low volume node in the near term.

[00:52:54]I kind of have a rule. If I have like a one and done like that on especially on a Friday, then I just kind of take it to the bank and I'm good. You guys want to do some giveaways? Drop a W in the chat if you learned something today about order flow and a trade setup. By the way, this is kind of a break of balance uh setup.

[00:53:15]I call this a shag setup, a sharp aggressive pullback. So, I see a huge amount of momentum, break a balance area, a quick sharp pullback into it, aggressive selling quickly gets absorbed, momentum right back into the highs. Look at all the people that learned something today.

[00:53:47]Look at all the people that learned something today.

[00:53:50]Amazing. Awesome, guys.

[00:53:56]Awesome.

[00:54:00]Amazing.

[00:54:05]Yeah. And so overall, you know, uh I'd have to do the math here. What was that?

[00:54:13]$1,500$1520 of profit. And I was risking about nine points there. So about 180 bucks, guys. Um, I'll have to pull that into trade zela to actually track my risk versus reward, but I can just quickly see made 1520 divided by 180 of risk.

[00:54:35]That was an 8 hour trade in 3 minutes live.

[00:54:41]8 almost 8 and 1/2 hour in 3 minutes.

[00:54:58]Am I doing the math right on that? Two contracts times nine points. That doesn't sound right. Did I mess that up?

[00:55:08]20 points times 9 points. No, 180* 2. My bad. $360 of risk there, right? I was risking about nine points there on two contracts.

[00:55:26]It's still early in the morning, guys. I can't do math.

[00:55:31]That's why I rely on Tradezella. Four a little over 4 hour. Jeez. That's Dude, this is why I use Tradzella to track this stuff, not my brain.

[00:55:44]I was like, wait a minute, that didn't sound right. It wasn't that big. Hang on.

[00:56:00]So momentum kind of faded here a little bit. I like to, you know, this kind of setup. If it plays in the first 15 minutes here, kind of an opening drive, I like to capitalize on that momentum quickly. If it kind of fades out, then I'm like, uh, that's why I like to capitalize on that momentum in the first 15, 30 minutes when it's there for that kind of opening drive setup.

[00:56:29]All right, so let's run the giveaways, guys, over in the Chart Fanatics Discord.

[00:56:36]Hood over there.

[00:56:38]Let me talk to my guy Anthony.

[00:57:00]There was a lot of takeaways from that on that trade, guys. Look at everybody that put a W in the chat that learned something today. whether it was an entry confirmation, trade management, trailing stop, uh things like that. I'm going with momentum. That's why I opened up the trade a little bit and trailed my stop. Did I under capitalized? Yes. I kind of got a little annoyed that it kind of stuttered there at alltime highs. I was looking or at the daily high. I was looking for it to squeeze a little more aggressively. So, I just went ahead and took profit on the break of the highs there. Could have kept if I would have kept trailing. Let's let's do a theoretical analysis here. If I would have kept trailing on each low that was formed, right? So, I trailed here, then we surged up here, we pulled back, held the 20 EMA here, we surged one more time, and I probably would have I probably would have been trailed out here around 87.

[00:57:58]So, I would have got yeah, I would have got an extra 20 points if I followed that management plan and kept trailing.

[00:58:18]All right. So, head over to the giveaways channel uh on Discord on the chart fanatics Discord. I'm going to be honest, Anthony. I don't know how to do this.

[00:58:30]This has We've not done this before on my stream.

[00:58:48]See, we had that opening drive exhaustion here into around 940, 945, but no real shift of structure. I'd still watch this area to hold until proven otherwise. Just kind of got an exhaustion pullback. We see VWAP here as well.

[00:59:08]Uh, click the button there, guys, for the giveaway. The celebratory little button there on the chart fanatics giveaways tab from this morning.

[00:59:22]Make sure you head over there and you'll get entered is the word that I'm getting from the team.

[00:59:30]Join it right now if you guys want to get in it. Chart fanatics Discord giveaways channel. Click that celebration button on the the message from 9:48 a.m.

[00:59:42]All right. So, here's a drop into that zone. Now, we'll see what buyers do here. See if buyers mean business.

[00:59:49]Quick little drop into that zone.

[00:59:56]selling is kind of coming in a little aggressively, but you know, momentum is is still in the buyer court here.

[01:00:07]See some big bids stacked up here around 29,600. What's ES doing?

[01:00:14]The same kind of area here.

[01:00:17]ES is just is just extending the day quite higher already. But this is kind of a similar key spot here around there.

[01:00:30]See that low volume area there?

[01:00:38]Sellers kind of aggressively dipping back into there now. Not ideal for bulls to give up that much as far as the momentum to to hold this morning, but still still bullish until proven otherwise in these conditions.

[01:00:55]So, we see a big bid stepped in right there at 7500 on ES.

[01:01:00]Got all the way down to the bottom of that zone there and and bulls stepped in again here. You can see this low volume area here.

[01:01:15]All right, everybody in? Did everybody get in?

[01:01:20]Smash that uh celebration button there on the Chart fanatics message in the giveaways tab on the Chart fanatics discord for the giveaways.

[01:01:39]I'll let you guys know here who won.

[01:01:57]Guys want to see what this looks like on deep chart as well. So this is what I mean.

[01:02:04]ES is kind of extending up a little bit here. You can see that just a larger block of volume. Still have more of a balancy type range here on on NQ, but it broke that pretty aggressively. And this, if I mark that, see where that low volume area is around there. You'd want to see if we're going to see a more aggressive expansion this morning, you'd really want to see bulls defend that there.

[01:02:36]You can see the big selling that came in up here. I was already taking profit to these big sellers here, right? I already used that momentum in the morning and took profit into those big sellers that came in on the breakout there. Now, we're pulling back and testing it again.

[01:02:50]Still haven't really broken it here.

[01:02:52]buyers are still doing their job. But kind of do or die here for them.

[01:03:02]If they if they don't hold it, then I'm saying we could probably either just get choppy inside this value area today or retest the lows.

[01:03:17]But there's the aggressive buying's coming back in. Still not haven't closed anything really under that zone there.

[01:03:30]All right, so we've got our winners.

[01:03:32]Congratulations to Tushar Mahan.

[01:03:37]I probably just really messed that up.

[01:03:40]Study helps and Lucenne Z1 175.

[01:03:48]Make sure you go there and uh claim the giveaways there.

[01:04:00]This is what we're looking at here on the Chart Fanatics Discord, guys.

[01:04:07]Here are our winners. Congratulations for those of you that joined in there for the giveaway today. We've got the Alpha Capital and Tradesella subscription and Apex accounts all on there for you guys.

[01:04:27]So W in the chat for them.

[01:04:32]So bulls are still defending here, right? To me, it's on sellers to really prove their strength. And and I'll show you what I mean. Let me move my charts back over here so I can uh draw this out for us.

[01:05:02]So, if sellers kind of break this with strength and then pop holds it lower high, then I could see us dropping back towards the middle or the lows here.

[01:05:14]But again, I need sellers to prove that first in these conditions, and I'd first have to look for buyers to defend this.

[01:05:24]But we did have some big selling come in there on that opening high. That's why I took profit to them. Same thing. I think it's a little bit more of a mess of orders here on ES. You can see that's a little messier on the volume just block there.

[01:05:58]So, we're coming. We're still well above VWOP here.

[01:06:02]Still above VWAP, but kind of, you know, a little bit lackluster support from bulls here. Still doing like the minimum that they need to do, holding kind of above these spots, but a little bit lackluster at least for strong continuation right now.

[01:06:22]Starting to see some see the tape speed up there.

[01:06:26]Starting to see some speed of orders coming in here.

[01:06:30]You guys see that?

[01:06:38]See how the orders like sped up there coming in?

[01:06:48]That's a big thing that I look at on trades is kind of the speed of volatility and orders as they come in.

[01:06:54]if it holds or if it fails. Both would be key information here.

[01:07:14]Sellers came right back in a little relentlessly, but definitely it's a back and forth battle right here.

[01:07:22]This is kind of that spot right the bottom of that zone too. And you can see the battle going on back and forth because like I said this zone is kind of a near-term like do or die area here for bulls. So you can see just the back and forth tugof-war going on here.

[01:07:50]Typically, for this to be really A+, I'd prefer to see a stronger, more immediate reaction from bulls defending this. The fact that we've spent so much time like hanging out down here, it's not wrong, but I just don't love it as much, right? I would have liked to see a quicker and more aggressive kind of like we saw over here, but I don't like how that failed and how we're just kind of continuing to hang out at the lows here, to be honest with you.

[01:08:21]It's not invalid. It's just I don't love that.

[01:08:29]Yeah. And look at this. Look at this pop. Now, since we saw this that remember how I said the speed of orders was was increasing here, we could see that. And then look at the result just a few seconds later.

[01:08:45]That's a 20 30 point pop since we saw the speed of orders increase down here.

[01:08:51]Look at that bid stepping in now up here. That's interesting.

[01:09:02]That was interesting. You see how the bid stepped in and absorbed anybody that wanted to sell right there.

[01:09:13]And look at that. That's what happens.

[01:09:16]Look at that. So, anybody that wanted to sell that pop Whoa.

[01:09:21]What the heck? What the?

[01:09:29]Anybody that wanted to sell that pop got absorbed until we shot up to here and then the tape got absolutely swept. Good grief. Did some news come out?

[01:09:41]And this is what I warned about this morning in the pre-market. If you guys remember, I warned about the tape being thin today and we could see big spikes up and down.

[01:09:52]I got to check my news. Did some news come out? I would That was crazy.

[01:10:03]And that's why you got to watch out in these conditions. Let's see what did I miss.

[01:10:16]Oh yeah, news did come out. Derp 10 a.m.

[01:10:20]news.

[01:10:22]I'm so into just talking with you guys here. I forgot about the 10 a.m.

[01:10:26]Michigan consumer sentiment news.

[01:10:34]dirt.

[01:10:35]Already talked about that this morning.

[01:10:37]Yeah, 10 a.m. Michigan consumer uh expectations.

[01:10:42]I didn't expect it, you know, that's usually that can be a little volatile, but it's usually kind of a medium impact. I didn't expect it to sweep tape up and down that big.

[01:10:52]Yeah, that 10 a.m. news. Well, it was interesting how before that news came out, look at this. Like 2 minutes, wasn't even paying attention to the time cuz I'm not taking trades right now. I'm just kind of doing this analysis with you guys. It was interesting how like the two minutes leading up to that news, speed of orders coming in and then bids stepping in up here and then obviously once the news hit just swept up and down. But it was interesting how some kind of positions were getting in before that news came out.

[01:11:27]those that two minutes prior to the news coming out, there was some kind of positions being worked. Maybe that was just somebody flattening things out before before that news hit.

[01:11:40]But that was interesting.

[01:11:42]There was some or maybe it was an intentional rug pulling, bidding it up and then smashing it down.

[01:11:52]But there was some activity 2 minutes before the news. There was some interesting activity. They bit it up and then smacked it down. That was interesting.

[01:12:13]I totally blanked on the 10 a.m. news. I wasn't even watching the time there.

[01:12:19]But that was interesting how that came in before the news and then on the news smacked it the other way. Very interesting.

[01:12:27]One could almost say market manipulation, but I don't know.

[01:12:42]So now we're below this area from earlier. It came all the way down to the value area low there on that sweep lower.

[01:12:53]Looking at this over here.

[01:12:58]So, not ideal for this to be a failed breakout. There was enough momentum there that it provided a nice scalp on the break of it, but not ideal that bulls didn't hold it and we're just kind of back inside here now.

[01:13:12]I don't see much edge either way now.

[01:13:21]still just kind of balancing out here.

[01:13:29]ES is just kind of a block here. I don't love that.

[01:13:36]It's a little messy.

[01:13:41]can see some big selling some big buyers right up at the high got absorbed and then we swept back down.

[01:13:48]Not not real nice structure at least for setups that I like to trade.

[01:14:07]Zoom out here. Coming down. See, you can see the session volume profile here.

[01:14:13]Coming back down to the lows of it here on the session. It's not really a location that I want to trade, but we could possibly see this where uh if I look at this volume profile here, these lows, we could kind of sweep out under that and mean revert back into that. I just don't love that as much. But if I had to place a trade on it, I'd probably look at this area here where these big buyers came in earlier right there in the pre-market, which is this volume shelf here under the value area. If we swept down into there and I saw some big absorption, big buyers stepping in, we could have a scalp mean reversion back up into here.

[01:15:17]That would be something I would watch out for.

[01:15:21]If we break that, that could be pretty weak and we could quickly crush all the way down to the low day here, I think.

[01:15:31]So, here's some aggressive selling. Now, let's watch and see what happens.

[01:15:39]right into that zone there.

[01:15:48]If selling is weaker on a pullback, then I would expect buyers to to surge this thing up back up into the middle here.

[01:16:22]I'd be probably looking at like this point of control area here for it to pop back into.

[01:16:36]There it goes. So once we recapture, so like see how we do dipped into there, I'd probably be looking for an entry here at the lows on that. And once we recapture back above the value area, I typically trail and if it comes and sweeps me back, break even. Then I can look to reenter.

[01:16:58]But you like, you know, once we kind of aggressively sweep the lows like that into a key spot like that, you want to see aggressive buying come in pretty hot, pretty fast, and spike it back up into the middle.

[01:17:14]No, I'm not in I'm not in the trade. I'm just sharing analysis with you guys.

[01:17:20]I already hit my one and done in like 3 minutes this morning.

[01:17:26]But this is kind of the mean reversion setup that I traded yesterday. And look, there it goes up into there now. See that liquidity right there. Boom.

[01:17:39]I'd be out right there at my target from that zone there where these big buyers were right under the value area on a balanced day. Boom. Popped right back in. So that's like from 5920s to 60 there. So that's like a 40 point scalp.

[01:17:59]40 point scalp risking maybe five or 10 at the most.

[01:18:07]Now it might shoot all the way back up into the highs. It might. But the highest probability thing at least to take a partial profit is just this pop back to the point of control on a day like this.

[01:18:22]This is super high probability. This upper zone up here would be the next target area. Little bit lower probability, but still possible we could pop back up in here, especially given the higher time frame market is bullish overall.

[01:18:40]Again, just gave you guys that zone before it even happened. Just knowing where the value area is, knowing what kind of day it is, what kind of context it is, knowing a location where big buyers came in before. That's it.

[01:18:57]That's an easy four or five hour scalp.

[01:18:59]Again, my rules for the day. I'm already kind of done on a Friday when done. But there you go.

[01:19:07]Anybody catch that?

[01:19:13]So let's see what we saw here on bookmap. We spiked under that zone. That that was that value area low level that I marked. We spiked under it. We saw that surge of delta.

[01:19:26]Surge of delta that did a 180 flip and then look how weak that selling is on these pullbacks. I'd be looking to enter here here around 24 26. If you guys go in the chart fanatics discord and uh see the setup that I shared yesterday, I literally shared this mean reversion setup and the exact analysis for it and this was it like probatim just played again.

[01:19:54]So I gave you guys the full framework for this exact setup.

[01:20:07]doubles. One of the best things that I've done over the last five or six years is basically watching order flow on bookmap footprint charts and now this tool like deep charts is cool. I've watched like every tick of order flow for years, eight hours a day. Nowadays, I I dip out a little earlier, especially on a Friday like this. You know, I'm probably done by 11. And I'm not even watching the charts, but just getting the experience of watching the tape live, watching these setups, watching the behavior of market participants in different market conditions, you get to a a certain point where you can just read it like a book.

[01:20:48]And it's just a skill mastery that takes time to develop.

[01:20:52]Uh, but I mean, two setups I gave you guys today were spot on.

[01:21:01]So, to answer your question, as a newbie, the first thing that you should do if you're interested in learning how to be a tape reader, learning how to read the order flow, and honestly guys, regardless of what strategy you trade, um, I am very focused on supply and demand, support and resistance, and auction market theory and WOFF theory. Those are like my foundations of how I analyze the markets. And I do that with technical analysis and volume profiles. And then I read the tape for entries based on certain criteria. I have very defined setups that I look to play. But as a newbie, the best thing that you can do is start watching the tape and learning how to read the relationship between aggressive and passive participants in the market. If you're new to that, I recommend checking out the series that I'm dropping on YouTube right now. Uh the start trading with orderflow series for free on my YouTube channel, by the way. You can check that out.

[01:21:55]Um, new episode comes out today at noon, by the way.

[01:22:00]Look at that. I mean, I just gave you guys an ATM machine.

[01:22:12]Any other questions in the chat that you guys got me?

[01:22:16]My balanced area for the value area on volume profiles is 70%.

[01:22:21]as a rounding thing technically 68 I think like 68.2% is like normal distribution uh but as a rounding thing most software and stuff uses 70%.

[01:22:38]I trade both ES and NQ. The volatility has just been way nicer on NQ lately.

[01:22:46]Like even if we caught the absolute low there, 88s to 95s maybe got like a seven point pop there on ES. This zone just delivered like 40 points on NQ there or more. 40 50 points from 520s to 580s 50 60 points there. Meanwhile, ES got like a six point pop and then rolled back over.

[01:23:25]So, I've just been liking the volatility better on ENQ lately, but I do trade both. It just depends. It depends also on like relative strength or weakness.

[01:23:36]Uh if there's a significant divergence in relative strength or weakness, I typically like to be in the leading instrument. Uh it depends on location and confirmations. Maybe if there's just a better location and confirmations for a trade setup, uh I'll take one over the other. Uh or if it's just market conditions and volatility is just better on one or the other.

[01:24:00]Typically in like all-time high grinds, ES can be pretty choppy and pretty slow and just volatility is low and I can scalp better quicker and just be done for the day on NQ.

[01:24:18]How do you get the bubbles split color based on volume delta? Are you talking about for NQ? So you go if you use this and you want to use the bubbles like I do like this on NQ. These bubbles show me the total volume and inside I see the pie chart of the delta versus on my ES1 I'm just looking at the delta. You go over here to studies configuration, go to volume dots and change it from delta to total volume. By the way, here's my settings for the volume dots on here. Here's my settings for the volume bars down at the bottom.

[01:24:55]order imbalance, large lot tracker, cumulative delta just in case anybody wants that can replay it.

[01:25:08]And on ES you can see the difference. If I go over to my volume dots, you can see how it's just the delta bubbles.

[01:25:17]Another thing to play with is the smart clustering. You can see where I have that set to about a quarter.

[01:25:24]And I'll show you. If you have that too high, it's going to group orders together and you're not going to see it as granularly. See how there's a lot of dead spaces because it's grouping orders together. If you have it too low, there's just way too much. So, I have I typically set that about there on both.

[01:25:44]But I do like the smart custering. I don't like to turn it completely off.

[01:25:48]It's just a balance. It's all personal preference and how you read the tape.

[01:25:52]But this is bookmap. This other tool that I've been using here is uh deep charts and deep charts also has deep dom which is a tool like this which I have as well.

[01:26:12]So, if you just want one and done, Deep Charts has volume profiles, big orders tracker, footprint charts, heat map.

[01:26:21]It's just all in one place.

[01:26:29]Good questions, guys. Smash the like if you got value out of today. If you learned a setup, you learned how to do some better analysis to add confluence.

[01:26:37]Even if you trade a price action strategy that has a statistical edge, just learning how to read the tape to filter out higher quality trades will massively improve your risk versus reward multiple and win rate. There's just no no way it doesn't. There's no reason I think everybody even with just trading price action, if you have a systematic price action strategy, being able to read the tape only can benefit you with precision.

[01:27:09]I don't know about Mac on deep charts. I don't know. I don't have a Mac, so I don't know.

[01:27:22]All right, guys. Thanks for tuning in to the live stream today. It's going to be a wrap for me.

[01:27:29]I would recommend we covered a lot of stuff today of the live trade that I took as well as the live analysis of the mean reversion trade that we just talked about here.

[01:27:38]Um, lots of good stuff here if you guys uh if you guys want to review again. I got that series video for orderflow trading dropping on YouTube today at noon. So, if you haven't already checked out my channel, I recommend checking that out there. If you guys have questions, DM me on Instagram. I'm pretty responsive to hitting everybody back. Thanks for tuning in today and I will see you guys back here on Chart Fanatics next Friday. Don't forget this is a holiday weekend so markets could get thinner and choppier as the day goes on. The best plays this morning was that opening drive momentum and that mean reversion right here. Both of which I shared with you guys.

[01:28:20]All right, guys. Have a good one. Peace.