Israel's Election: What the Polls Really Say?

[00:00:00]Hello and welcome to this Jerusalem Press Club briefing. I am Jonathan Beck, director of content. Our topic today is voting trends in the coming elections.

[00:00:09]Uh scheduled for Tuesday, October 27, 2026. And our guest today is Shu Rosman.

[00:00:13]Hello, and thank you for joining us.

[00:00:16]>> Thank you for having me.

[00:00:18]>> Uh first a few words about our guest. Is a senior fellow at the Jewish People Policy Institute in Jerusalem, the JPI.

[00:00:25]He has been a writer, columnist, and non-fiction editor. and most recently uh he also served as a political commentator on Israeli television and radio um where he regularly appears and he's also head of Hamad in English the index which is a polling uh website that covers not only election issues but a plethora of issues relating to uh the Israeli public. Um today we're going to um look in focus about uh a poll that was published actually uh within the JPI also conducted by Schw. So um before uh before we we get to that poll uh I would like to look at at a few issues um in voting trends at this present moment. um also in the prisma of of the last few days when we already have you know the propaganda little clips and reels on social media but also uh in the in the sphere of um how they relate to to actual news. Uh most recently I'm just going to mention two things. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu which is also of course the head of Likood was supposed to travel to the US to the funeral of Lindsey Graham Senator Lindsey Graham and this was cancelled at the last minute. Um and a second thing that should that should be considered is uh the the odds that Israel will be involved in the war against Iran which has become warmer over the past few days between the US and Israel.

[00:01:57]So um first of all I would like to ask you a general question. To what extent um are these current affairs that are happening now that I mentioned affecting the public's opinion in the elections in October? Um >> yeah well this the the simple answer is they do and they don't. uh they don't because what we see in Israel today when we look at the general trends and at the uh the way voters are preparing themselves for election day uh there's there's not been much change in fact in the last three years uh even before the war we've seen Likood and the the current coalition losing support among many of their voters in November 2022 many of the voters uh felt disappointed by the judicial reform and the social upheaval that uh that was part of it. Um and and the the government lost the support of most of the public u around January February 2024 and never truly recovered. So when we see the polls today and we see that the the current coalition which has 68 seats in the Knesset is expected to win in in yesterday's poll I had them at 49 some people have them at 52 53 between the the high 40s and the mid50s which means that they will not have a majority in the parliament. This this is the situation that we see in the last 3 years and this hasn't changed um in you know things came and go. We there was a war a war with against Gaza and a war in Lebanon and a war with Iran and then another war with Iran and throughout all these events the political situation did not much change. We don't see a majority supportive of the current coalition. At least not not in the polls that I see and I analyze.

[00:04:17]On the other hand, I said no and yes. So why why the yes? The yes is because of couple of things that we do see in the polls. We do see that Iran is still the strongest key that Netanyahu has as he goes to the voters and present himself as candidate for the next election. When we ask people about u variety of issues and we test Netanyahu against different candidates, the only issue in which he still has an advantage is Iran. If you test him against Gaddy Eisenot on cost of living, on you know social issues, on economic issues, on every issue that you can imagine, Eisenot comes on top on each and every issue except one and that's Iran. So in some way another war with Iran could be a lifesaver for Netanyahu if it is close enough to election day and of course if it's successful. Um the last round with Iran is not considered as highly successful by most Israelis today. So if there's another round and Israel fails to achieve its objectives, then it might not help Netanyahu in the election. But if he does, then he might be able to say, "Look, uh, you judged me too soon and too harshly. Look at what I achieved with Iran. These are the things that I'm going to achieve for Israel in the in the coming years." and then this could become a lifesaver, a political lifesaver uh for him. I should say that in the poll uh we published yesterday, the the channel 13 poll that I conduct every week, there were two questions about Iran and and or in fact three and all three are interesting. In one question, we discovered that there is a plurality, not a majority, but a plurality in Israel of people supportive of a renewed war with Iran. So, the Israeli public is expecting it and is in some way in favor of it. Israelis think that the work was not yet completed. And in order to achieve what Israel wants to do, which is to prevent Iran from having nuclear weapon, it is advisable for Israel and the United States to go back to war with Iran. So that's question number one. Question number two, we asked Israelis about their to assess the the ability of President Trump to have a wellplanned um strategy for Iran. And most Israeli think that President Trump is improvising and that he doesn't have a real plan that we can rely on and support. The third question is more of a political question. It's whether Israelis are worried about the possibility that Netanyah will initiate the war not for strategic reasons but rather for political reasons. And here we do see a slight majority of Israelis who do have such fear. They don't trust Netanyahu to only make such judgments or decisions based on what's good for Israel. They do suspect that political considerations are part of his decision making processes and and you know there there is some kind of paradox here. On the one hand, Israelis go want to go back to war. On the other hand, they say, well, we are not clear on whether a decision to go back to war is going to be based only on strategic matters and not involve politics.

[00:08:22]>> Okay, thank you for this. So on on just on that last thing that you said uh I mean I I can guess that um saying that Netanyahu might go to war is you know is is for political reasons is a talking point of the people who oppose Netanyahu and my mom and I actually told at least her in a in an argument the other day that well it's not really his decision to make. He's not a Caesar. There's a mechanism. There's a security establishment. it it doesn't just say the words and they go to war but um also looking at this wider perspective of things that are happening I mean even just today again with or without Netanyahu regardless this is going to be used all these things are going to be used for example a nuclearized Saudi Arabia um is going to be a talking point of the people who oppose him so Um what do you what do you think in the sense if it's is strong card he has to present as a sort of acceptable achievement for the public to to you know to ride to the election with Iran because the current situation as you said is actually not quite there for the public.

[00:09:40]>> Right. So, so I'll I'll say two things about about Netanyahu and his ability to to recreate some kind of block that that could support him. The the first thing is to say, look, we didn't achieve everything that we wanted to achieve, but we achieved a lot during the war. We strengthened Israel. We we we didn't eliminate Hamas, but we weakened Hamas.

[00:10:04]We didn't eliminate Hisbala, but we did weaken Hisbala dramatically. we didn't yet finish the job with Iran, but at least we started and we achieved several things. And in some way, he'll say, look, I I wanted more, but there were obstacles that were not under my control. And uh if you think about all my rivals, my the other potential candidates for the prime minister's jobs, they would do an even worse job.

[00:10:37]So, you know, choosing a prime minister is is not just about about having your ideal candidate. It's having the best candidate you have among, you know, the the the people that present themselves as candidates to become prime minister.

[00:10:52]So Netanyao might not be able to say look I achieved everything you wanted me to achieve but he can still say I achieved more than a Gadi Eisenot or an A Victor Liberman or an Aftali Bennett would achieve under similar circumstances.

[00:11:08]There are still many Israelis 30 something% 35% in yesterday's poll of Israelis who say well we are not uh satisfied with everything that Israel achieved but we still think that he's the best prime minister to operate under such circumstances. That's one thing that he will say about himself compared to other candidates. The other thing is going to try and tie the other candidates to what some Israelis see as extremist factions of Israeli politics. You see the the short clips that they're now making of GI Eisenkot hugging with Mansur Abbas of the Arab Ram party.

[00:11:58]These are the type of things that Netanyahu will try to do. He will try to say well Eisenot my opponent is not really Eisenot behind him there is a Y golan an extremist Yer Golan the head of the the party of the Democrats or behind him there is a coalition with the Arab parties. So you have to choose me if you want a coalition of like-minded people who only care about the interests of the the Israeli people and who only will take care of security and the well-being of the Jewish people. If you choose my opponent, you will get a coalition of people that you don't want to see ruling Israel.

[00:12:48]>> Okay. Uh thank you for this. I would still like to remain in really the events of the last few days and and and drill down a bit into that question of like how much do current affairs affect uh the voters um the comments of Rabbi Lando. I'm not sure if it's three four days ago except for um the shock that they cause and um I'm not going to make a judgment on on what they think about it but do you think they're changing any voters minds?

[00:13:18]Look, the the the issue of the uh ultraorththodox challenge and the ultraorththodox draft and the laws and and allocations that were passed by the Knesset in the in the last couple days strengthening the ultraorththodox community and and basically helping the opposition.

[00:13:42]I said that the coalition is going to try to tie Eisenkot or Bennett to the uh more extreme factions on on the left or or of Arab parties. The opposition is going to do the exact same thing to the to the coalition and to Netanyahu. are going to say, "Look, you might think Netanyahu is smart and experienced and well-rounded and, you know, strategic thinker, but we know who truly rules his coalition. These are the ultra orthodox parties. If you want this thing to continue, if you want the decisions concerning life and death uh allocations and budgets and all other things will be relegated to the ultra orthodox leader and ultraorththodox parties and ultraorththodox rabbis who speak ill of Israeli soldiers who sacrificed their safety and sometimes their lives to defend us. If you want such coalition to govern Israel, then vote for Netanyahu. If you don't want the ultra orthodox parties to uh govern Israel, then you must vote for a different coalition. And again, it's there is there is a competition between uh two narratives here. It's not Netanyahu, it's the ultraorththodox.

[00:15:09]It's not Eisenot, it's the Arabs. The coalition is going to frighten us with the Arab parties. The opposition is going to frighten us with the ultraorththodox party. And some people are going to say, well, this is exactly what we need. We need a centrist mainstream Zionist coalition without the Arabs and the ultra orthodox.

[00:15:34]The question is of course whether such coalition is a is feasible and whether anyone could agree on who's going to be the leader of such coalition.

[00:15:47]That's a that's a question for the day after election day when we have the results. But many Israelis would say, well, if you can offer us a feasible coalition without both the Arabs and the ultraorththodox, we'll take that.

[00:16:05]Okay. So, continuing directly from that, I don't know, you said the poll was presented yesterday.

[00:16:12]>> Well, I I did a poll for it. Yeah. for channel 13 yesterday the the the poll of of seats in the in the >> so I I read a report uh that um Benny Gans of Blue and White and Betty Simi which is sort of political carryon because they they're they're below the threshold are in talks with Edstein Yulstein and I think the name of Giladan has been mentioned and I think Shake I'm not sure if anything has come to that and I don't know if you presented this question in your poll But this specific type of party that I mentioned, if it should arise, would potentially, at least in my humble analysis, would steal votes directly from Liood. No, from the Liood. Even saying if you want Liood, you vote for us. If you want for you vote Likud, you vote for the Netanyahu party. We are the true Li. Edelstein has his seat in the um foreign affairs and defense committee on this issue of of the ultraorththodox.

[00:17:13]Well, we we do know the party that you mentioned is not yet formed. These are we we hear about such talks in the last couple of months. We know that there are people you know you you can call them between the two blocks. We have the Netany block, the current coalition and we have the opposition block. We between these two blocks there are people who try to change the rules of the game. Instead of saying let this coalition win or that coalition win, they say let's break this uh this construct of two blocks and create a third block, a mainstream block of people from both blocks and the center and they can create something new for for Israel. We know that this sentiment is quite strong and we know there that there are around 10 seats uh of people who wish to find such viable party that can represent them.

[00:18:15]The question whether such party can rise and cross the threshold with confidence enough that people can say okay we found a new home and this party is going to force the two sides to join together in this uh dream coalition without extremists and without ultraorththodox parties and without our parties. Um again that depends on on whether such party can uh can form emerge and remain strong and whether people have confidence that such party ultimately will force the two sides to sit together rather than join one of the blocks and provide it with the extra extra votes or extra seat seats. it needs to reach the 61 threshold. U this is still this is this is a game that is still in the early stages. We have up until early September before the final lists of candidates must form and get finalized.

[00:19:29]So in the next 6 weeks or so, we are still going to be this back and forth of of uh parties forming or or um or departing or merging or splitting all the things that are typical in the Israeli political sphere. They're not typical in other parties. In in other countries, we know that in some countries parties are fairly stable. You have Democrats and Republicans and you know these are there to stay in Israel.

[00:20:03]Parties form and and and and split and merge and change all the time and that's one of the things that we are going to see in the next six weeks.

[00:20:15]>> Okay. Um I mean in in a talk a few months ago or weeks not don't remember with aat which is a head of one of these parties she said there are 20 such seats. You say there's around 10. I >> I don't think there are 20. I think I think it's it's closer to 10 seats. But but these are the 10 seats that will determine the the outcome of the election. There there are safe seats for the coalition. There are safe seats for the opposition. 10 seats in the middle will determine the outcome of of of the election and they will determine what what type of coalition is going to emerge after election day. Uh so I I think 20 is probably an overstatement but 10 possibly 11 that would be a more realistic assessment of of the number of seats that uh that we can find in in this between between the blocks area.

[00:21:15]Okay. Um, so now we talk about between the blocks. I'm going to move on to the next subject.

[00:21:22]Um, the entire sort of tilt of the Israeli political sphere. Um would you agree with a statement saying that uh all the way from from Moshe [clears throat] Fagin or Bengir's party to around just before or in the middle of Japs essentially post October 7 the entire Israeli political body shifted massively to the right >> well that depends on on your definition of of right and left. Again, the people who used to talk about right and left in in you know British terms or or American terms, they'll define right and left differently than most Israelis. In Israel today, a majority, a clear majority and even a large majority of Israeli Jews self-define as right-wingers.

[00:22:20]uh they can be strong right or right or moderate right but most of most of us Jewish Israelis are right-wingers and what we mean by that is that security matters trump all other matters and [clears throat] that Israelis are now quite are willing to be quite aggressive in their pursuit of more security for Israel uh this you know this didn't happen on on October 7. This is a process that we've seen going back two and a half decades uh after the end of the 1990s, at the beginning of the 2000s, after the the start of the second Palestinian [clears throat] inif so-called, the wave of of brutal terrorist attacks in Israeli towns and in cafes and on buses. the Israeli public shifted rightward on security matters and never went back. Now, of course, October 7th made it even more pronounced because we've, you know, we've we've got a taste of what it's going to be like to be defeated by our enemies. Uh it's uh you know this is this is no longer a theoretical question of you know if the Arabs are able to to win against us at war what will they do?

[00:23:48]We know what they'll do they'll butcher and rape and maim and kidnap and do all the horrible things that that people did on October 7. So for for the Israeli public, the idea of uh sacrificing our security in exchange for some vague notion of you know agreement, peace, whatever name you call it. That became something that most Israelis would not accept. Israeli security is the number one priority and on this you will not see much of a difference between you know the deep right and the the the center. People might might have nuances, might use different rhetoric or different language or might say we think that on tactical matters we have this or that differences but by and large you don't see there there's no you know the the peace camp and the war camp as or the peace camp and the settlement camp as as we used to have back in the 1990s.

[00:25:02]Israel is for security. And this goes, I'd say, you know, even when you look at the leader of the leftist, the most left-wing Jewish Israeli party, Yer Golan. Yer Golan is a general known as a fairly aggressive general when he was in uniform, deputy chief of staff. He will say that ultimately he wants to achieve peace with the Palestinians. But if you ask him about tactical issues facing Israel today, his recipe is not going to be dramatically different than the recipe presented by Prime Minister Netanyahu.

[00:25:49]>> Okay, thank you for this. Um, okay, moving on a bit. Um and also maybe continuing from the question of whether Netanyahu can um you know start a war if he likes just just to shift the election. There's been talk of interference in the election. Um people talk of I I'm not sure capable of but Russian interference. Russia is busy now losing a major war. Uh there is talk of Qatari interference either hidden or you know paying whoever they want. Um and there is but there's also um there's this kind of buzz especially among the parties again opposing Netanyahu that Likud is going to send you know thugs to stand outside ballot boxes and and and and prevent people from voting or essentially that this talk of like either stealing the election or making it unfair. Um, do do you have any anything to say about do you see this as a serious possibility of the of the election being tilted by us?

[00:26:56]>> Look, I I I see it as a concern. I I think there is, of course, a tendency of the opposition to uh to have such fears.

[00:27:06]uh there are signs you know Israel is a highly polarized place today and people have very low level of trust in the in the other side. Last week we asked people uh if they think that the coalition is going to accept the election results if if it loses and whether the opposition is going to accept the results if if it loses and on both sides there is suspicion that the other side will not accept the results of of the of the election. Israel was able to conduct fair elections throughout its history without much interruption and I really hope that such tradition will continue. Uh Israel conducted elections during times of uh of high international tension shortly after wars. It conducted fair election half a year after an assassination of of the late prime minister Rabin and these were very tense and yet fair election. I do hope that all these concerned are concerns are are just overhyped.

[00:28:20]But we must admit that Israel is a tense place and that it is the job of you know the the the relevant institutions to make sure that that we have fair elections in Israel. I do believe that almost all Israelis do want to have fair elections.

[00:28:42]Will there be some fringe elements that might try to disrupt the the process?

[00:28:48]There's always such possibility, but I do think that in Israel the pendant the the there is not yet an erosion in the sense that people no longer want fair election. I think Israelis do want fair election and are willing to take the risk that if there's fair election they might lose an election and I don't think that this change dramatically in the last couple of years and I I hope that the outcome will be fair election uh with no more than minor disruptions.

[00:29:24]>> Okay.

[00:29:26]um apart from um you know apart from the obvious answer of of maybe an appeal to emotions etc. Can you explain perhaps according to your polls why parties that um essentially failed in their platforms in the coalition are still polling relatively well without naming names I'm looking at >> [snorts and clears throat] >> um you know also sh perhaps those parties are polling it the same kind of they're keeping the numbers regardless essentially regardless of reality is it is it just like a football team >> the the answer well Shas is polling uh is is polling relatively low compared to the current number of seats that he has it has they they have 11 seats in the parliament they pull around seven eight seats there is a tendency among pollsters including be to to underrate the level of support for parties like Shas. Their supporters are much harder to find in in public opinion polls. So, uh there is the risk that they that they actually have more supporters than than we believe. Look, you're you're asking why parties that are failing uh to pursue their agenda succeed in the polls. The answer is one of two. either their supporters don't think that they failed. They think that they succeed where where you see a failure, they see success or it's because they believe that the failure is not the fault of the leaders of the parties but the fault of other people. So I'll give one example.

[00:31:12]We do see and that's a fact that during the term of minister Itamar Bengir as internal security minister we do see that the level the of homicide in Israel is going up. We do see more uh uh more daily murders in his criminal criminal acts of murders in in Israel. uh such such events increased in number during his term as minister. So you could say well it's a failure because it's his job to prevent people from you know murdering one another or you could say hey I don't care because it's mostly Arabs killing one another and I don't much care about Arab crime.

[00:32:07]That's the position of some of his supporters and some would say it's not his fault. It's because of the attorney general or the courts or the Knesset or you you'll find some other people on which to put to lay the blame and still think that the minister is the the most fit person to combat uh crime in Israel.

[00:32:33]And in fact, when we ask Ben supporters about, you know, who's the the the the better person or to be the better leader to deal with crime in Israel, they still name him as the best candidate. So they they they are not convinced by the numbers that the minister is not a good minister.

[00:33:00]Even though I think I think um but I'm not sure that there's a rise also in crime in lethal crime also in the Jewish sector. In the Arab sector it's very pronounced but also >> yeah it's it's most pronounced in in the Arab sector and and you know again some supporters don't see it as much of a problem if Arab crime is rising. That that's a that's an issue for them not necessarily for us. Then also again you can lay the blame on other people. You can say it's Arab culture or it's Arab mayors who don't cooperate with the police or it's all kinds of other things that get the minister off the hook.

[00:33:49]>> Okay. Um we're going to get in a second um to the to the poll because there's an interesting fact about about it that I want to ask you about. But again still remaining a bit um on the issue of um those parties you say sh is going down in general in general um parties usually get a kind of similar a static number of seats I think over a few decades when all the demographics experts are telling us that their birth rate is higher they don't do army they don't not many of them die in combat so there should be more voters among by pure statistics they there they should have more representation in absolute numbers out of the 120 MKS and and yet they kind of keep to the same what what is the reason for that >> no they they don't they they rise gradually and and people don't always notice the fact that they gradually do rise the radio representation in the Knesset is gradually going up you should remember that we found two uh two ultra orthodox parties but in fact only one of them is purely ultraorthodox that's a United Torah Judaism that's an ultraorththodox party sh is a party that combines the vote of ultraorththodoxic Israelis but also gets part of some of its seats from traditional Israelis or religious Israelis who aren't ultraorththodox so there is a mixture here that you can't always you can't always the identify the exact number of seats given by the ultraorththodox.

[00:35:37]We should say that some ultraorththodox not many but some of them do vote for other parties. There is a very small share of them voting for Liud and there is a small but increasing share of ultra orthodox Israelis who vote for Itamar Beng and ultrarightist and in many ways religious party but not the classic ultra orthodox party. We do see that the ultraorththodox community in Israel uh is also the most staunch rightwing uh community in Israel. When you ask questions about you know the Israeli Palestinian conflict or settlements or or equality equality for Arabs and many other questions the most right-wing community in Israel is the ultra orthodox community. So you see why party such as have has s some appeal for ultra orthodox voters but by and large the demography doesn't lie with the increased share of ultraorththodox Israelis we will see an increased share of ultraorththodox seats in the kesset it doesn't go up in one election cycle but it does gradually go up and it will keep growing if the altern community keeps growing at the same pace that he does now.

[00:37:11]>> What specifically before we get to the poll which really talks about this issue of of the enlistment in the army. We know that there are many shas voters who are in fact not ultraorthodox. Shas is sort of the merits of the safarian. They have this like social platform. What do they feel or think about comments by Ary about army enlistment and is there a chance of them leaving shas for other parties? Well, some some some of the reason that we pull shas at a lower level than what it has in the kesset now is is because we see some of some shad shas voters leaving the party and moving to other parties mostly to and they leave the party at least partially because of its stance on on on the draft because they are not pleased with the fact that chas basically um um opposed any compromise on a draft of of ultraorththodox youngsters. It would not even accept a compromise under which only ultraorththodox youngsters who don't dedicate themselves to a Torah study will have to enlist and serve in the military. So some shas voters again mostly traditional or religious shas voters will probably ditch the party in favor of other parties because of this issue.

[00:38:45]>> Okay. And um finally I want to ask about the poll that you conducted last week.

[00:38:50]And then I have another very short two questions. But um critically I want to say that the poll I think you conducted um for the JPI was before Rabbi Lando's comments.

[00:39:04]>> Right. So this was uh reported in a few Israeli outlets and it said that most Israelis want a change so to speak against the coalition with uh Arab participation.

[00:39:16]Uh digging deeper into the pe the peace um there's actually not it's not most it's just a plurality of 27%.

[00:39:26]Um but the that's the largest uh minority among the various options that were offered. And I just want to read out the numbers. A coalition similar to the one today of a purely right-wing gets 60% support.

[00:39:43]Uh a similar coalition with a centrist party added gets 14%.

[00:39:48]A coalition of um of change, we'll call them opposition parties for the purpose of this. Of opposition parties without Arab participation gets 8%.

[00:39:59]the wide right left coalition without the Arab parties and without the ultra orthodox parties meaning a unity government essentially um gets also 16%.

[00:40:10]And then we have 8% for again a sort of unity coalition with Arab participation without the ultraorththodox and finally a similar scenario but with ultraorththodox and without the Arabs that is a right- left coalition getting 5% Correct me if I'm wrong. What I'm reading into this is a sort of anger against the ultraorththodox parties, meaning they are least desirable by all the options. Is this correct?

[00:40:41]>> It is correct, but of course there are caveats. Uh it is correct that there are more Israelis today willing to accept uh an Arab party into the coalition and preferring it over ex having an ultra orthodox party as part of of the coalition. It's not all Arab parties we should say. Uh people who say who say this refer mostly in most cases to one our party the Ram party that was part of the uh change coalition of of Bennett and Laid the the short-term one-year coalition of Naftali Bennett and and Y laid four years ago. So they will prefer to uh include the Ram party within the coalition rather than include the ultra orthodox party. I I think the the um the reason for that is is quite obvious. Uh we in the last couple of years the Israelis have realized that Israel is paying a a dramatic price uh when it includes the ultraorththodox parties. the ultra orthodox parties uh perpetuate a situation that Israel cannot prolong for much longer without suffering uh something severe consequences both on the security front because of the the draft issue and on on the economic front as well. The ultra orthodox community is a community that doesn't well integrate into Israel's economy, doesn't contribute contribute much to Israel's economy and is costing the the the state a lot of money. So people realize that this challenge must be faced and they think that this challenge is currently more dramatic and more urgent than the challenges posed by participation of the Ram party uh in a in a new coalition.

[00:42:49]The anger of many Israelis towards the ultraorththodox community and parties is is quite severe right now. We see it in in many different ways when we ask many different questions.

[00:43:04]Then again, one caveat must be added.

[00:43:07]This is the view of the majority. It's not the view of the majority of supporters of the current coalition. If you ask current coalition voters what they prefer, they would rather keep the they rather keep the ultraorththodox parties as part of the coalition and not include the Ram party, the Arab coalition, the the Arab party with within the coalition. There is a very clear difference here between the two again the two camps in Israel. uh the people who say no Arabs are more dangerous or more problematic than ultraorththodox and the other camps who says no we see a problem with the ultraorththodox parties we don't see much of a problem with the inclusion of the Ram party within the coalition that's a party that would like to integrate the Arab population into the larger 's early society. They want to improve, you know, the economic conditions for Arab Israelis. They want to fight against crime in Arab streets, etc. These are all goals that we can easily support without having to feel that the inclusion of an Arab party is problematic for in any any sort of way.

[00:44:38]>> Okay, thank you for this. Uh finally a question about um surveys um polls conducted by channel 14 and for I24 I'm not not by I mean I don't know who does their polling I think it's Phil um they they show more they essentially show a more favorable um picture of their political perspective a bigger could bigger support for right-wing parties than others can you explain this discrepancy >> look I I I can't destroy cribe other people's methodology. I I know what we do. Uh I know that we try to do it in an honest to God way. I see what pollsters of channel 11 and 12 and 13 and to some extent 15 do. There is a huge difference between all the polls and the polls conducted by the uh ultrarightwing channel 14 and its pollster. I can't say with any confidence that he's wrong and we are right. There is always the possibility that the community's posters get it all wrong and one pollster is much smarter than all of us and on election day will discover that we have to eat our hats and he will be the you know the the great genius of this election cycle. I can only do what I believe is the right way to do polls and present the the results that I see. And I agree that the uh the wedge or the gap between most of the polls and the polls conducted by the channel most loyal to the current coalition is you know at least in some way suspicious. uh we we must you know we look at these polls we say okay it's the channel most f favorable to the coalition and the polls are dramatically more favorable to the coalition in fact in their polls the coalition has a com comfortable majority in the coming election you you you might even ask you know if they believe their own polls why do they even bother to to have a campaign you know they have such comfortable lead they should just sit on on their butts and wait for election day. I think that the the truth is is um is probably more more similar to what we see in most of the polls. Then again there's no there's no guarantee. We'll have to wait and see.

[00:47:23]>> Okay. Uh earlier in this briefing I mentioned my mother. So, it's just fair that I'll mention my dad. Um, he is willing to place a bet with me, a wager on a dinner at a restaurant that this is going to be um with the big the election with the biggest turnout. And he said 85%. And I said way over the top. I'm willing to up to 75 at most. Do do you qu do you actually ask questions? Are you going to vote? Do you have any thing to say about the turnout? Well, you're you're going to have you and your father are going to have a problem determining who who won the butt the bet because the the the official number is probably going to be closer to your number 75%.

[00:48:12]Because it's going to be on the higher end of of um you know I think people are going to show up in this election and vote. Uh so it's going to be on the higher end. Then again higher ends on >> is very high. Yes.

[00:48:29]>> Exactly. But I do have to say that most pollsters and and we conducted a lot of research on this issue. 75% doesn't really represent three out of four Israeli citizens in Israel. 75% includes many Israelis who have the right to vote on principle but don't reside in Israel.

[00:48:58]And that's why the actual percentage of voting in Israel is much higher than what we think. Uh, most people who don't vote in Israel are just people who don't who aren't here, who live in Los Angeles or Sydney or or or travel in the in the far east in in their post uh postmilitary service uh uh big trip. These are not the people who are here are going to show up in great numbers. um 80% 85% I think it's going to be a very a very high percentage of people who will show up and vote again depending on on on on the the their ability to do such thing because Israel doesn't allow people to vote uh from overseas. You have to be here to vote. the people who are here are going to vote.

[00:50:05]>> Okay. So really just before I let you go um we run a bit long. Um is there a [clears throat] larger number of Israelis outside the country? You know since October 7 people talked about the fact the fact that people are running away etc because of the war is actually there is a bigger number of Israelis um who are not going to vote in this election simply for the physical fact of not being here and maybe also can you say what's their number in likeet seats more or less is it significantly higher than other elections? Well, it's it's it's not easy to to know the exact number. We do know that uh immigration out of Israel in was higher in the in the last two three years. So, so there is a somewhat larger number of Israelis who who spend their time abroad. It's not dramatically high. We are still talking about thousands more, not hundreds of thousands more. And we do know that many Israelis plan to get back here just just to vote. So we'll see many thousands of people uh taking flights back to Israel to vote before they they go back to their countries. I I don't think it it will have huge impact on our election. Then again if if election are determined by a fraction of a of percentage this could have impact on on the final outcome.

[00:51:36]This is not what we see in the polls today. In the polls today we do see a a a division between the two the the two camps that should provide us with a fairly clear outcome for this election.

[00:51:54]It doesn't mean that one of the blocks will have enough seats to form a 61 seat coalition without the ultra orthodox or the Arab parties. But it does mean that we will see a clear majority for one of the camps.

[00:52:13]Um and and we will know who truly won and who lost the election.

[00:52:21]>> Okay. Um thank you so much for this briefing Rosner. Um I would like to also thank Mati Sakal who um supported this technically and say that this will be on our YouTube channel later and also in the Israel votes section of our website that has all the briefings we're doing in the election. Very informative. Um it's always a pleasure to speak to you.

[00:52:43]Thank you so much.

[00:52:44]>> Thank you. Thank you for having me.

[00:52:45]Bye-bye.