Effective policy analysis requires considering not just immediate effects but also the subsequent consequences that may arise from those initial actions. When governments implement policies without accounting for second-order effects, they risk creating unintended problems that can undermine the original goals. For example, a policy intended to help one group may inadvertently attract people from other areas, or a tax increase may discourage economic activity. This principle applies broadly to governance, where well-intentioned policies can produce counterproductive outcomes if their full implications are not carefully considered.
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“I’m Absolutely TERRIFIED Of” Andy Burnham’s Government
Added:an overview because I've got used to this 6:15 announcement by Mr. Burnham, our new prime minister. How have you seen the first four days of the Messiah from Manchester?
>> Well, first of all, obviously I need to apologize for not being sufficiently northern as Andy Bernham has decreed all people must be. I don't have any ferrets down my trousers or anything like that right now. So to get my my land acknowledgement apology for being from the southwest out of the way, I think the whole thing is just pathetic. Right.
They've defenistrated a sitting prime minister. Someone whose letters are sat with nuclear submarine captains. Someone who was asked by the king to form a government. Someone who won a big majority. However useless he is and however decent it was and smart in some ways they'd get rid of Kestarma. They've replaced him with someone who still thinks he's a local council leader.
Right. the the the ATP that you might get off a week off your uh energy bills that probably because the extra borrowing that that will cost and will create more inflation which probably means you end up spending more at some point. The the two pound bus fair limit which was something the conservatives put in and it was Labour themselves who raised that to three quid. They've just gone back down again and yet Andy Bham is saying that this is the most important thing that's ever happened and now this business rates example sounds lovely again just who's going to pay for it? I think in the announcement it said, "Oh, it's going to be paid for by certain organizations that don't add any value to the community." Well, I'm sorry. I'm absolutely terrified that these morons think they are the ones who are now entitled to say what does and doesn't contribute to the community or to the country in some way and just to punitively tax it. I don't think trade unions add very much to the sum total of our community or our country. So, should we put the tax on them? Should we put the tax on union levies? That might be quite a fun plan, but I'm not sure it's going to be that. I'm sure it's probably just going to be I don't know bloss.
>> I I I just I think I mean this is really interesting mate from Deborah. She says um Jez um James says my take on Burnham he's offering little gestures to pull people in the pied piper all over again.
Lure the rats do the job then face a government that refuses to honor its promise. And just like the tell he took his revenge and claimed his own reward.
That's my read on it. Don't be taken in by burn or this Labor government.
They're all aligned in dragging this country down. Look, you were a special adviser. I I I I've never been. So, I would tell you from the outside it was a stunningly brilliantly orchestrated coup, right? That don't care what anybody says. Brilliant. And I mean, look, it it happened. I can't get away from the fact and and this morning, you know, another announcement cutting business rates by 20% on pubs, clubs, and live music venues. On the surface, that sounds great. What about shops and restaurants? But that's just me being cynical. You know, I we know he has a friend late nights and and and that but but he you know that says I'm listening.
The bus says I'm listening. The VAT Yeah. ATP, let's be real because it's going up by 30 says I'm listening. But I think the mistake the the two things I want to say about the p the past four days is this. First, um I don't think the British public anymore, Jay, are as they have been in the past. It's just happened or was the prime minister making announcement. I think maybe it's social media, maybe it's what politicians have done to destroy our confidence in their ability over the last number of years. I think almost everybody to a man and a woman now starts to question how this is going to work. I've had many I've had hundreds of texts this week before I even worked it out about the the VAT on electricity. I had hundreds yesterday about the bus thing saying the tourists had it at two, they put it up to three. You're just going back. I've had people today saying that might sound good, but what about the other parts of the business and where's that hundred million coming from? Now, the bus thing apparently came from a raiding the climate project fund.
I don't know if that's true. He's dethroned old millipede, doesn't he?
He's off as foreign secretary. But, but the British public are far more intuitive now about politics and they're questioning things. The thing I can't get away from, which probably is is in akin with you, he just looks like the leader of a student union to me. I just can't I I don't know. I mean I mean what an extraordinary first four days we had streeting in the hot mic moment. It just it's it's not been to me professional and mature or is that unfair?
>> No, I think you're exactly right. I think this is the the challenge that people like you and I Jez and everybody listening and I have to get the messages out there that we've been saying for years now that the country is in a deep state of crisis. And I don't say that because I enjoy it and I'm not saying it that it's entirely Labour's fault. I think I've been probably as critical as any uh member of that those last conservative governments uh as anybody and criticizing the the tourists for not stepping up and meeting the moment. But yeah, things get worse and worse and worse if you don't have the energy and the ideas to make them better. And we are sliding towards some really dark times. Again, I'm not saying that because I think this is great. Oh yeah, I like to bash the country. The complete opposite is true. Much that Mrs. Thatchin and she couldn't bear to see the country in decline. But Andy Bernham is acting like the only problems are that some people that get the bus can't have quite as much money because they've got to spend a bit too much money on getting the bus. That is not the biggest problem, far from it, I'm afraid, facing the country. We're facing some really, really dark existential threats and we can just go over some of them, but because they're so enormous, they are so big that people can't get their heads around them. So, you know, it's easier to think about two pound or3 pound on a bus fair, but the fact that we are not two but three3 trillion pounds in debt into the hawk to those bond markets that Andy Bernham says we shouldn't worry about anymore. The fact that we spend over a1 billion pounds a year and how to try and get that into context, it's more than we spend on the education budget.
It's more by a double or something that we spend on the defense budget just to service our debt interest payments. And when Burnham comes out with these lies, how he's going to find the ways to pay for these things, which is not true, this idea that, oh yeah, well, we we're going to give some money away to third world countries for climate initiatives, but now we're going to ask them to pay it back. Well, you still send the money out in the first place. So, where's the money for this other announcement coming from? And the reason that you give the money in grants is because, you know, you're probably not going to get the money back anyway because these are, you corrupt third world ktocracies in the first place. So, you're not going to get that money back. So the bond market's going to look at this and go the guy is deeply unserious. We are going to increase the amount of money that we charge the British government.
>> Y >> which means the British taxpayer for borrowing and suddenly that hundred billion a year that we're spending which will go up to 101 next year and 103 the next year will go up even faster. And then there's even less money for schools and for hospitals and for the damned buses. And suddenly you're in a sovereign debt crisis where we cannot pay. Taxes go up. More people flee which I know we're talking about. everybody else is more emiserated and you are stuck in a doom cycle as if pulled into a black hole from which you cannot escape. It is that serious and that's just one of the existential issues before we talk about energy or immigration or defense or any of the other >> well that that that do you know do you know what in lay person you're far more intelligent than me you're brilliant I just from the first moment he arrived in Downing Street and I'm not decrying a 20% cut in business rates for pubs clubs and live music venues because that essentially is good news I'm not decrying a two pound charge for buses because to many that's good news the VAT thing to me they all sound to me like little sweeteners. He has not mentioned stopping the boats. He has not mentioned the welfare budget. He has not mentioned net zero. He's not mentioned drilling in the North Sea. He has not mentioned a full national inquiry into the grooming gangs crisis with judicial powers. And I suspect, and I could be wrong, that if you knocked on any door, people would be talking about those five more than they'd be talking about the cost of a bus ride. I mean, I could be wrong. The hospitality industry might disagree with me. I just I get it. I get what he's doing, but it it should be more serious than that. And and I've had people already saying, you know, Starmmer was appalling, but there was a serious I I don't know. It's just the I'm not wearing a tie to work and I'm going to Manchester in North and all that. By the way, can I just give a little James won't mind this. Can I just give another little plug? Isabel Oakshot's been working on something extraordinary. And on Monday, we we've had an undercover reporter in Manchester, the the the jewel in the crown that is Andy Burnham.
There's a place I've worked there for 15 years, Piccadilly Gardens. You could go and sit and have your lunch. It's not called Crackadilly Gardens for any other reason than Andy Burnham is not the messiah. I'll say about some footage you'll see. Uh the undercover reporter in an hour got offered drugs four times, broke up three fights with women, and there are rats the size of rabbits. But no, don't worry. That's not a force. I mean, that's genuinely true. So, I I I would I'm sure that Andy Burnham the Buses and everything's great and blah blah and maybe he'll be a success, but I think he doesn't quite yet grasp a the seriousness and b the cynicism that we rightly feel because this country is on its ass. That's the truth.
>> Yeah, absolutely right. Let's take some of Andy Bernham's uh pride examples from Inside Manchester where he talked about wanting to end rough sleeping and homelessness. And I think that's one of the first announcements that he came out with saying he's going to be doubles.
>> It sounds great, right? Who doesn't want that to happen? Who doesn't walk past somebody on the street down on their luck and think, "God, I wish we could do more to help them." Brilliant. Okay, in Manchester, the numbers started to go down a little bit and then they went up again and they skyrocketed and something said, "Well, yeah, but that's actually a little bit COVID." It's not because there's numbers start going up afterwards and actually across the whole country there were schemes during COVID.
is the fact that in some areas because you put more resources into that and less into other ones. Yeah. The numbers went down and then homeless people from other areas went, "Oh, brilliant. I can get a house and I can get all these other things. I'll go over to Manchester." Right. Okay. Someone on the left is now dangerously close to understanding what an economist would call a second order consequence. Right?
I give out free money. People go, "I like free money. What happens next?"
Right? This is the key difference I think between the left and the right that those of us on the right are capable and willing to think about the second order or even the third order consequences of our actions. If I steal this thing, I get the thing. Hm. Oh, no.
Wait. Yes. Then I get arrested. Plenty of people can't think past that. Burnham with the homelessness. He was so close to getting it with a second order consequence. It's not going to happen.
And so for all of these little goodies that he gives away, what's going to happen next? As I've explained, the money situation for the country is going to get worse. And focusing on these tiny little things. So, what what's the consequence of that going to be? It's going to be that our enemies in Russia and in China and Iran and the Muslim Brotherhood and all the rest and all the people around the small boat gangers are going to go, "My god, they've got a total in charge of them. Now, let's go take advantage of lighty."
>> Um, two stories that I've got to do with you. One, the second one is new and I can't wait to see your face. Gary Lker though the first one and another 120 British millionaires have written a letter to the new prime minister saying they want to pay more tax to help more people. This is Gary Lker. The goal hanger podcast on which our new prime minister went he didn't go to the times or or or the mail or the telegraph. The only interview he did before he crowbar his way into number 10 was with Gary Lker's goal hanger podcast. Um my view is um I think 50% plus you know 9% of whatever the other thing is income tax or what not income tax what's I don't know what the called is is good. I think if you give half half away, I think if you're successful, that's a good thing.
But they never argue, do they about the thousands of people, we have one on just them, Mikey, who are going to quit the United Kingdom, having paid hundreds hundreds of thousands of pounds worth of tax and done their bit and they're still being squashed, which to me then says, "We don't want you to be aspirational.
We don't want you to be successful in it. We just want to crush the bits off you."
>> Yeah. We already have an incredibly progressive taxation system. the the the richest 1% or the 1% who pay the the most amount of income tax pay like 29 30% of it 1% up to 30% already and you get people obviously at the bottom end of the spectrum who pay almost nothing or nothing if they don't make the the personal allowance threshold. So you've already got a system where the richest they're not asked by the way to pay more. They are forced to under pain obviously of being sent to prison eventually. So you've already got a very progressive system. And if Gary Lker wants to spend some of his millions writing a check to the Treasury, they'll accept it. He can just do that. But again, it's it's not understanding the second order consequences. What happens to the guy who's on that threshold? If he's going to start then paying more tax, he or she are just going to stop working.
>> And you know the other thing that annoys me about this, and it's just come to me because when I'm talking to intelligent people like you, it does come to me.
Lker and his ilt will go on about 120 millionaires should pay more. But they would never address the problem is that we have a benefit still that is skyrocketing out of control because there are hundreds of thousands of people who are not mentally ill or disabled who are gaming that system and taking money away from people who genuinely want it. So he'll stick his head above the parapit and go oh I should pay more tax. But he would never ever look down a camera lens and go do you know there's about two million people screwing us on the welfare state and those people need to be outed. The other story is just for you before I move on. James Price, a stalwart of this show and a legend. Working from home staff, we've just had this in, should be able to opt out of calls on camera, says a judge yesterday. Ordering workers to join Zoom or Teams calls with their camera on can amount to disability discrimination, an employment tribunal found yesterday. Some workers can be anxious or overwhelmed by having their camera on and employers could end up being liable to pay damages, says the judge, James Bry.
>> Well, if the judge says it, there we go.
Look, see, it's discriminatory. I'll keep my hand over the camera.
>> Yes. Are you feeling threatened? What is that? It's your hand. It didn't look like your hand, [laughter] but there we go. Uh, so are you feeling anxious? Are you feeling overwhelmed by being on camera?
>> I'm always overwhelmed when I'm in your presence, Jesse. It's just down the camera. Doesn't that just sum up how crap we are? Honestly, I I just >> It's so pathetic. But again, again, what's the next order consequence of this? Someone will be working from home, then they won't, and then they'll say, "I'm too anxious." And suddenly it will be true. And they'll have boxed themselves in if they even if they're working. I mean, I'm this morning. I'm in my home office right now cuz it's nice nice and early, and I still want to be with you. But, you know, there will there will be people who will then go, "Oh, now I can't actually face going outside. Now I can't actually face even doing the job." It's not kind to pander to people like this. You know, I I mean, I'm much older than you. I don't understand it. We had to >> we had to do Mark's looking at me. Mark and I say we had to do the extra shift.
We had to go the extra mile. We had to walk to work or ride to work. We weren't driven there. We went, "Oh, I'm anxious.
I've got to go. God, I nearly swore.
Jesus go. What about gumption?" That was a word my old man used to use. What about gumption? What about verve and desire and commitment and just show that you and you know the thing is right when Lica and his ilk stand up and they say you know anybody that's made money should should give it all away that disrespects and Mike touched upon this people who are successful don't it's not all a silver spoon they've grafted for years and they put their necks and their famil family's necks on the line and they should be respected um so I >> it's just it's just it's super important that people you know we all know this right whether time you go to bed, when you lay your head on the pillow, do you think you've had a good day? Do you think you've contributed something? Have you made some money for your family?
Have you made your wife laugh? Have you taken the dog for a nice walk and had a special memory with them? You made your kids happy and help them with their homework? Have you helped a stranger? If you've done none of those things, you know deep down in your gut that you've not had a good day and you should change it around. And we should encourage a society where people try and strive to help other people out and to do something good. So when they go to sleep at the end of the day, they know they've given it their all. That's the kind of society we should build, not one in which we protect people from ever trying to do anything for themselves.
>> May, I love the bones of you. You know that. We must have that beer. I'm sorry I've let you down on that a couple of times. But the legend that is James Price. Thank you so much.
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