The analysis provides a sobering lesson in political pragmatism, correctly identifying that attacking during a honeymoon period is a tactical blunder. It effectively argues that patience is a more lethal weapon than performative outrage when challenging a new mandate.
Deep Dive
Prerequisite Knowledge
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Deep Dive
Why Farage Is Wrong To Call For A General Election Now
Added:Hi guys, so Nigel Farage is calling for a general election. Why? Well, because his party is desperate. They had been leading in the polls and now that lead has pretty much dried up.
So, I want to show you this clip here where he's speaking to the party faithful and he's calling for a general election. But this is because he's desperate, deeply desperate at a time where there's a real problem facing Reform. Have a listen to this.
>> On May the 7th in those elections that took place where Reform made breakthroughs, remarkable breakthroughs in Wales and in Scotland something else happened.
We pretty much took out the Labour Party in their heartlands of the Northeast, the Northwest, Yorkshire, the West Midlands.
And I knew on the morning of May the 8th one thing was for certain, which was that Keir Starmer would not remain our Prime Minister and he's gone. AND WE DID IT.
>> [applause] >> WE DID IT.
AND NOW WE have a new Prime Minister.
We have a new Prime Minister who got a mate of his to stand down who coincidentally purely, coincidentally you understand is now going to get a well-paid job in Downing Street, funny that.
>> [laughter] >> And of course, he became the leader of the Labour Party unopposed.
He says amongst many other things that he wants to bring about the biggest change in politics in 40 years.
This man has no mandate whatsoever. He didn't stand on the 2024 general election manifesto. You cannot make the biggest change in British politics in 40 years without a mandate from the British people, and it would be only decent, right, and proper to call a general election on that issue and to do it now.
>> Okay, so why is Farage doing this?
Because he's desperate. He has seen how the party was leading in the polls, doing really well until about October last year, and then it started to slowly decline. And over the last number of weeks, it has declined pretty dramatically. Why is that the case?
Well, in part because of this guy here, because of his political shenanigans, because of his financial issues, and people are starting to wake up and realize that Nigel Farage in number 10 would not be good for them.
We've seen tactical voting against Reform, and we've seen uh their share of the vote slowly decline. Now, Farage needs to call a general needs to pressure Andy Burnham into calling a general election as soon as possible to stop the rot.
Because the longer this goes on, the worse it is for Farage and Reform. And we know that, you know, the investigation into him in the House of Commons is going to create problems for him, even if he wins the Clacton by-election, which he will likely do.
So, Nigel Farage's problems are not going away.
The tactical voting against Reform would just ampli- would just be amplified.
But, coming back to Andy Burnham, because >> [snorts] >> is there a necessity for Andy Burnham to call a general election? Well, first of all, Andy Burnham should only call a general election if he feels he should But a political point of view. He shouldn't be pressured from the Tories, that's not going to happen, from Reform, for the Greens, from anyone else.
He should call a general election on his terms, and that would be a clever approach. So, I don't see him doing it, at least at the moment. Now, what Nigel Farage said here was it was neces- it's necessary because Andy Burnham is talking about massive change. But Andy Burnham has said nothing about changing the uh the Labour Party manifesto. So, if he diverges a lot from the manifesto, then there would be an obligation, I believe, on him to call a general election because there would need to be a new manifesto. And people vote People vote for parties, but they also are supposed to vote for manifestos. They don't vote for the leader. You're going to hear a lot about, "Oh, well, Andy Burnham is the new leader of the Labour Party, there should be general election on those grounds." No, there's no obligation uh to have a general because you vote for the manifesto, you vote for the party, you don't vote for the leader.
But there's also another problem here for Nigel Farage. Is that Andy Burnham it would be better for Nigel Farage to call for a general election later on.
He's doing it too soon because Andy Burnham has only taken over. Andy Burnham is beginning his honeymoon period, and it would be better from a political point of view. I'm not a political strategist, Nigel Farage has very highly paid people around him to advise him, but I think it would make more sense from a political point of view for Farage to call a general election later on. Because if if Andy Burnham starts making really big changes, and says, "Hey, we're going to dump X, Y, and Z. We're going to ignore parts of the manifesto. We're going to amplify parts of the manifesto."
Then he would have some evidence on his side, Farage talk- speaking about Farage, to call for a general election. It's too early now.
You know, you there's no evidence that so far that Andy Burnham is going to ditch the manifesto from 2024.
You would need to have some evidence in order to convince uh the public that it would be right to call a general election. At the moment, I don't think there's a lot of support for such an idea. People are tired of politics.
They're tired of this back and forth.
They would prefer a government that is stable, that gets on with business, gets on with making the lives of ordinary people better.
And more elections, more politics is the last thing most people want.
So, when Nigel Farage is speaking to his audience here, the Reform UK supporters, and they are, you know, desperate for a general election. They would love the idea of a general election because they believe that it would usher this guy into number 10.
I don't think that's going to happen.
But, the longer this goes on, the worse it is for Reform. Because Nigel Farage's problems are just going to grow. We know what the Look, there's an investigation at the moment into some of the things that have come out, but you can be guaranteed that there will be more dirty linen to be aired.
And these problems are just going to grow for Farage. And of course, the more we know about this, the more people are unwilling to vote for Reform and tactically vote against them.
Let me know in the comment section, guys, what you think. And I'll see you in the next video. If you've made it this far, thank you so much for watching this video. Remember to click like, subscribe, and ring the bell in order to stay in the loop for future videos. Now, you can also support the channel financially by clicking on the links below to Patreon, becoming a member, and of course, sending me a coffee. And all of those are greatly appreciated, but of course, only if you're able to.
Remember, I stream twice a week on Tuesday and Friday nights.
Uh and I hope to see you on the streams as well. So, have a great day, and I'll see you in the next video.
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