貧富差距擴大，怪全球化？諾獎得主馬斯金：解方早在我們手中【與頂尖對話：諾貝爾獎得主系列】Ep.2｜廣編企劃

[00:00:00]The thing we have to remember about globalization is that although it may increase inequality, it also is very positive in its overall [music] effects on economies. There have been many countries which have been made richer unquestionably by [music] by globalization. Taiwan is one of them.

[00:00:22]What should happen instead is that action should be taken [music] to fight the inequality, not to fight globalization. I think the [music] tools for understanding inequality are already in our hands. We I I I think from an [music] academic point of view, we know what's happening and we know what should be done.

[00:01:04]>> [music] [music] >> Please join me in welcoming today's speaker, Nobel Memorial Laureate in Economics, Professor Eric Maskin.

[00:01:28][music] >> [music] >> Inequality has been a big issue in really the whole [music] world for for some years now and understanding why inequality has been [music] increasing is a major intellectual challenge.

[00:01:54][music] I think for the case of highly developed [music] economies, traditional economics had a pretty good story for for for why this occurred. The countries that are involved in international [music] trade will tend to specialize in the areas [music] of the the economy where they have a comparative advantage, where they are particularly strong. And for highly developed countries, >> [music] >> that area tends to be the highly technical, the highly skill-oriented part of the economy. So, >> [music] >> uh international trade is likely to increase inequality >> [music] >> in highly developed countries. But, uh curiously, there has also been an [music] increase in inequality in developing countries and in emerging economies. And the theory of comparative advantage [music] doesn't explain that.

[00:02:58]So, for that reason, uh I was curious and [music] my co-author, Michael Kremer, was curious.

[00:03:04]Could we uh propose a an alternative theory or a complementary [music] theory which helps us understand why inequality has been rising?

[00:03:18]>> [music] >> The theory that I've developed with Michael [music] Kremer says that the reason why there's been >> [music] >> an increase in inequality in poor countries is that the globalization of production has tended [music] to be interested only in the employment of people [music] with high skills or at least moderate skills. [music] People with low skills are left out. So, in poor countries, we have seen [music] people with skills have their incomes rise and people without skills >> [music] >> see their incomes stay the same or or maybe even fall.

[00:04:10]Uh >> [music] >> Brazil is uh is one of the or was one of the most unequal [music] countries in the world.

[00:04:18]And one reason why they were unequal uh was because poor families who perhaps got their income from agriculture [music] uh that they they they worked on a farm couldn't afford to send their children to school because the children were needed to work on the farm.

[00:04:41]But, because they weren't going to school, they were staying [music] poor.

[00:04:45]So, what Brazil the Brazilian government did was to [music] introduce um what's called a conditional cash transfer program uh where >> [music] >> poor families would receive some money, but they would only receive the money if they [music] sent their children to school. So, this was good for the families because they got the cash, but it was also good for the children because they got an education and they could break out [music] of the of the vicious circle. The solution is to [music] make sure that the people without skills get the education and training that [music] makes them employable by the global market production system.

[00:05:31][music] For example, we ought to be sending more young people to what are called uh vocational [music] schools or community colleges where they learn uh skills that will actually get them [music] a job. That is the sort of investment that we should be making. And the way >> [music] >> uh to make it is is to subsidize uh the education [music] for students who want to go in that direction.

[00:06:06]That can't happen automatically. [music] Uh it has to happen with government support. [music] I don't agree that AI will change [music] things as quickly as people are predicting.

[00:06:26]It's probably not going to happen in the next [music] 10 years. But, uh but if we look beyond that, 20 years [music] or so, may may perhaps it will.

[00:06:35]And and I say this >> [music] >> because of historical experience. If you look back to the Industrial Revolution of [music] the late 18th century, early 19th century, you saw a pattern [music] similar to what's going on today. You saw lots of new technology being introduced.

[00:06:59]>> [music] >> And that technology was disruptive in the same way that AI [music] is disruptive. It It caused people to lose their jobs.

[00:07:10]Uh >> [music] >> but eventually, many new jobs were created. And and this was due to the fact that entrepreneurs figured out how to [music] combine technology with human labor and we saw productivity for workers [music] increase dramatically.

[00:07:32]Well, I think that could happen this time, too.

[00:07:36]Nevertheless, [music] I think there are reasons for trying to >> [music] >> perhaps slow down AI a bit to enable us [music] to adjust to the changes ahead.

[00:07:50]Going back to the Industrial Revolution, uh >> [music] >> there was a period of about 30 years before we saw jobs catch up [music] with the new technology. Before that, the technology was destroying jobs and it was not creating new ones. [music] It took about 30 years for that to happen. Well, uh that suggests that [music] if we if we want to avoid um disrupting our economy too much, we [music] ought to perhaps slow down the AI process a little bit so [music] that so that society has the chance to adjust. This all depends on how we respond [music] to AI.

[00:08:37]I certainly [music] believe that if we use it properly, it can become a positive force >> [music] >> because it will free uh us humans from doing routine and [music] not particularly imaginative work. And it will mean that the people who are still working will be doing creative and original [music] thinking. And uh instead, we might imagine that [music] people will derive their income not from necessarily uh working, >> [music] >> but from uh ownership of their personal data. [music] But, if we uh if we were awarded ownership of our personal data and [music] companies had to pay for that, that would be that would be a source of [music] valuable income to us. In So, in the same way uh that if I invent something, [music] I can get a patent on it and and get income from the patent.

[00:09:46]But, in order to [music] reach that happy outcome, it will be necessary to reinvent education because [music] people will need to learn. So, education will be a form of personal enrichment, [music] not a means to a to an economic end. I think education will [music] mostly be about how do you personally enrich yourself [music] by by pursuing activities that you find fulfilling. If we do that, then no matter what happens, [music] people will be able to prepare themselves for work in a >> [music] >> in a new environment. I think from an academic point of view, we know what's happening [music] and we know uh what should be done.

[00:10:43]>> [music] >> Uh what what is missing is the political will to make it happen. How can we make a politician having longer foresight?

[00:10:54]And looking at long for one.

[00:10:58]That that's a very good question uh and it's uh it's not an easy one to answer.

[00:11:11]Uh but I think once again, education is part of the answer. So, so to take the problem like climate change.

[00:11:23]Uh climate change is for the most part a very long-term problem. The major effects of climate change >> [music] >> are not actually going to be felt for many [music] years.

[00:11:39]Uh and so you might think, well, with politicians interested only in the next election, this will this will never get done.

[00:11:58]However, thanks to education, more people than ever understand the problems of climate change [music] and a well-informed electorates will demand uh solutions to these long-term problems.

[00:12:25]So, so ultimately, we only get politicians of the quality that we deserve because we elect them.

[00:12:36]Uh if they if the public is better informed and education there is the key, uh I I think there's reason to believe they will elect better politicians.