NIO Delivers 37,705 in May │ HUGE Increases in Firefly & ONVO 📈 NIO Stock Analysis

[00:00:00]What is going on? Welcome back to the channel. So, today we're going to talk to you about NIO. I want to go over some of the data points, what just came out from NIO, and go over everything else you need to be aware of. Before I get into any of that, make sure you guys hit that thumbs up, and with that, let's get right to it. So, NIO is having a pretty epic day, 7.05% in the green, 612 the high, 572 the low, and about 56 million shares being traded. So, the big thing for NIO today was going to be their monthly numbers, and I'll kind of break that down for you in a second, but starting off with macro data, we did have Sunday evening rating dog manufacturing, which came in at 51.8, forecast at 51.5.

[00:00:37]So, that was kind of on the positive side. Uh we did have on Saturday evening NBS manufacturing, which that was kind of the opposite, so came in a little bit lower than the forecast. Market doesn't seem to care about either these as of right now, rather just macro events. So, the broader market does appear to be switching to risk on. So, a lot of growth stocks are starting to get a lot of uh institutional attention, but of course, in NIO's case, uh their monthly numbers was going to be the big deal because not only was the market going to be digesting this number, but it was going to automatically start assuming if it will hit their overall Q2 numbers.

[00:01:16]So, NIO did provide their uh May numbers, 37,705.

[00:01:21]That is a 62.3% year-over-year increase, but the breakdown is a little bit more impressive. So, we did have about 20,000 from NIO, 12,029 from Onvo, and 5,663 from Firefly. So, we did have substantial increases with both Onvo and Firefly. So, in general, markets does seem to be really liking that. It goes over right down here about the ES9, how they did start on May the 28th for deliveries. So, of course, we're not really seeing too much represented based on the May number, but rather we're going to be seeing some pretty substantial numbers for June only because of this right here. So, it looks like in the 72 hours from the ES9 launch, there was about 40 to 45 firm orders. But overall, it does look like total firm orders have surpassed 20,000.

[00:02:14]So, the market's kind of taking all of this as a very good positive because unless NIO completely flops in June, it looks like they're going to be hitting their uh Q2 numbers, which they did cite between 110 and 115,000. So, definitely good stuff. I know the market didn't really like that number all that much, but it looks like most likely we'll be definitely far exceeding that. So, good numbers uh at the end of the day, and still they did really hit home how there's still a lot of good demand for the ES8. Um so, aside from that though, Li Auto did put out their numbers. They actually saw a month-over-month decline.

[00:02:52]And then Xpeng as well did put out their numbers. So, the market's finally ready to move up stocks based on their operations. Uh realistically, I think NIO should be a lot higher than where we currently are, but sometimes it's just fun. But at the end of the day, we're still seeing shorts increasing a small amount. So, they're increasing about 402,000 shares. 7% of the free float's being shorted works out to be 142.7 being shorted. Looking at the intraday though, at the peak, they're kind of increasing roughly around 2 million shares, 2.1 million. Then they go return, they double down. So, they're definitely active today, but they are making up most likely around 15% of the daily volume.

[00:03:34]So, substantially lower than what it normally is. Looking at the options, 6.2 million in calls, 1.1 in puts. Net premiums going up by 1.6 million. So, as per usual, that does signal that there's a lot of true optimism behind the scenes. Uh from a bull standpoint, you see a consensus for it to be roughly around 650 to 7 by the end of this Friday. Bears are anticipating for it to be sub six. So, given all that, there's definitely a lot more upside than down.

[00:04:03]These are all the transactions occurring on the secondary market above $100,000.

[00:04:08]Anything with a ask is a buy. So, for the most part, you're seeing a couple institutions selling out, but for the most part, uh everyone does seem to be kind of loading the boat a little bit with NIO. Dark pool very, very active and you see a ton of whole numbers. So, hedge funds are getting in and this is one comical thing I've brought up that hedge funds, uh when it comes to NIO, they don't seem to have any faith in it. They don't tend to hold it for the long term. They'd rather swing trade it. Uh so, them buying, clearly based on today's price action, might be a good opportunity again for those of you that like to follow what big money's doing. Well, turns out they're buying. They see a swing trade opportunity with NIO. At the same time, like I already mentioned, uh there seems to be a very big pivot to risk on in the broader market. So, maybe they feel that's going to really push NIO higher. So, definitely a lot of big transactions and couple pages of this as well.

[00:05:07]So, that was just page one and so forth.

[00:05:09]So, definitely good to see. Right now with it at 598, it is trading between this R3 and this R2. So, 615 is going to be a kind of good target uh and we kind of did bounce off of that. So, 613 being the high, so we did bounce off of this R3. So, in the next couple of trading days, just watch for that. Flip side, 592 followed by 577 going to be the next strong support points. Uh on the actual chart itself though, uh this is where things get very interesting because it did kind of bounce off of this 50-day moving average and that's currently sitting at 604. So, not too far away from where we currently are, but definitely that is a huge deal for Neo because historically every time it does break above this blue line, results in like a 30% swing. Unfortunately, it did get really hit when we were at the $7 range-ish.

[00:06:00]Um and it kind of just dragged down from there, but if we can actually close above that 50-day moving average, ideally today if not tomorrow, then we could be seeing some very similar price action to what happened right over here.

[00:06:13]That was at the kind of mid-March time uh time frame. So, this is something I did bring up over my weekend video based on the market position. You see a little bit of a battle, so you do see a lot of willing sellers and willing buyers, but based on clearly their numbers, a lot of big money's getting behind that. And so, you do see for the most part it being more heavily oriented towards buy side. So, that's going to act as a pretty good support level at key levels. So, that does mean that 200-day moving average, which is right now at 584, and a lot of those fib levels. So, I think moral of the story is big money's finally waking up to Neo and a lot of other stocks out there and starting to really buy it up. So, let me know your thoughts on Neo. Are you buying? Are you selling? What's your honest opinion of their monthly numbers?

[00:07:04]And what do you think that means for when they do beat on their Q2 numbers?

[00:07:08]So, quickly going over here, they did about 29,000 in April, so 37 as well now in May. So, that being said, they have to pretty much do around 42 to 44 or something like that, just rough math, um in June, which I think is fairly good, right? Achievable. And clearly, I think based on today's price action, the market does tend to agree. So, let me know your thoughts. Don't forget to hit that thumbs up and subscribe. One final thing, pop over to my Patreon if you're looking for some solid buy signals on stocks, options, crypto. Put out daily day trades, numerous swing trades.

[00:07:42]Worthwhile to pop over there and check that out. With all that, appreciate all of you watching.