Quant funds and AI algorithms actively monitor and target common technical levels including Fibonacci levels, moving averages, and stop loss placements, making it essential for traders to use alerts rather than hard stops and to focus on price action rather than just earnings numbers, as the market reaction to earnings reports often reveals more about future price movements than the actual numbers reported.
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SHARK BAIT OR SMART MONEY? AI QUANTS TARGET RETAIL TRADERS | Your Money Podcast Ep. 600
Added:Welcome to Rever Asset Management's Your Money with Danny Stewart. The market will always overshoot to the downside and to the upside. [music] And Don Vandenborg >> cuz it's not how much you make in the markets, it's how much of that you can keep.
>> Are your technical levels being manipulated?
Are you using hard stops? If you're a retail trader and you believe you have an advantage or knowledge, are you swimming with the sharks and you're the bait? Now, if if if you must use hard stops because you're too busy to watch the markets all day long, there's a couple rules after you manage position sizing.
First, put the stop loss a few percent below where the where the resistance level is, where you think the stop should be, and always use odd numbers between nickel increments. At Revier, we don't use hard stops, but rather alerts depending on the price and volume. Then we make a decision as to what to do.
Price is truth, no exceptions. And the reason I bring this up is there was a tweet from a guy that said uh sent out and Don Don sent it to all of us. Are is AI now hunting your stops? Are the quant funds looking at your technical and fib fibonacci levels whether it's whether it's highfrequency trading or whether it's AI it doesn't matter the big big hedge funds and quant funds they know. So do the sell side.
They know where the stops are. That's why you got to be very careful with your stops.
Otherwise, you're going to get Well, I was going to use a word, but you're going to get uh screwed. All right. Now, first I'm going to go to a mailbag. Uh two comments from this. This is a long time client MB, and he sent this one on X two days ago. With the NASDAQ down two and a half percent and the S&P down 1.3 as of now today, this is inner day. I'm thankful for my grow account being down only one. Thanks for limiting my losses.
Don's comment. Thanks for recognizing what we do. Now, he emailed this yesterday or actually on 721. He said, "It's a confusing stock market. So that is why I have Rever Asset Management on my side. They eliminate the fear and greed. Steel nerves and a strict rules-based approach is what it takes to succeed.
So how are you doing? Because right now this is a bifurcated market and some growth stocks are holding up while a lot are getting just absolutely slaughtered.
So I ask you, what's in your portfolio?
Now, when you listen to these guys, do they sound like you and do you do this deeper research or your adviser?
And with that, I'm going to turn it over to Don. Don.
>> Yeah, thanks Dan. that uh that is a a very key uh point and we talk about it in-house all the time about the comment you made about um algorithms and and stop levels and uh you know a good example today is looking at the NASDAQ 100 uh the the lows of uh back here in uh 69 and then 717 made a very obvious uh level for people to put stops. So, no doubt people came into today and say, "Well, I'm just going to put my stop at 68636.
If it breaks below that, I'm out." But look, look exactly what happened uh on the NASDAQ 100 today, undercutting that level and getting back into the trading range. This is a a classic example of breaking down. And this is not where you want to put a short. You want to short uh on a wedge up into a declining moving average. We don't like to short breakdowns because for one thing, if you shorted the breakdown today at that level, it's the third day down. Third day of any trend is a lower likelihood of success. Whether that's to the upside or the downside, we something we talk in and on our videos and in house all the time. Well, it it looks good. It does look good, but this is the third day up and it's gapping up. How much realistically higher do you need to go or do you expect before there's some sort of sideways or pullback action? And that's not to say it's foolproof.
Nothing is foolproof in the market, but we're trying to put the odds uh in our favor. So, this NASDAQ 100 chart uh forming not a bad looking consolidation, but it is below the now declining 50-day moving average. That's the red line that's highlighted. It's below the declining 21-day moving average, which broke below the 50-day moving average.
So, those are uh two things in the negative column quite obviously.
Compare that to the S&P 500 uh much stronger on a relative basis. uh nowhere near those lows of 7237.
In fact, still 3% above. And this is indicative of what's what you're seeing in the tech/AI trade uh where a lot of those names have gotten completely blasted. Some of them are bouncing, but a lot of them are bouncing uh just right into levels that you could consider as a shorting level. Here's Micron had a 4day bounce, got back above the 50 and the 21. Well, if you chase that, you're down 5% today as it's breaking below uh back below those the 21 and the 50-day moving average. And chasing strength, especially in this market, has has not been rewarded in uh these tech names.
There's times when you could chase strength and it's when something is in a strong uptrend. Uh but that's not the case anymore. A lot of these stocks topped in late June and are having a tough July. Also, uh we're going to talk about um the River 100 and some of the names that have reported earnings this week and how we treat them uh when we go to the individual segments. And then Ted's going to have uh a nice uh talk about uh VWAP and Fibonacci levels on some of the individual indexes. Uh but what what do what is our plan right now?
Well, the S&P 500 was in uh a 15-day range. Let me go to a 60-minute chart here. And uh it's pretty clear that this 7420 level was acting back on 629 and the beginning of July. That was the bottom of the range. The top of the range was 7580. We got up to that level uh twice. We also got to that level back at the beginning of June and in the middle of June. And this was just a long trading range that we're in yesterday.
We broke below that trading range that caused us to take some of our exposure off uh on that range break and it also coincided with a break below a hard break below the 50-day moving average.
We had two closes below it uh the prior week and last and earlier this week.
rallied wedged back up above it uh broke through it again and that level on Thursday and now there's uh some rumblings about China getting involved in peace talks with Pakistan for the US and Iraq and we're seeing a bounce today back inside that 7420 level. So if you go back to uh that key level that's really the level that we're keeping an eye on as it's the bottom of the range.
get back in it. Good. That means that you've got a level to trade against. And again, it's a breakdown level that would have faded uh this 7420-ish level. And it also held I'm highlighting the 65day exponential moving average. Uh which is an overshoot level from the 50-day moving average that we keep an eye on inhouse as well. and really glad that uh Market Surge expanded their ability to put more moving averages on charts because they they do uh come up from from time to time and you'll see that they're valid uh and they're professionally used uh moving averages.
The 65 is some people use the 63, some the 65. The feeling is it's basically a three-month moving average whereas the 21 is a one month and the 50 is just a kind of a standard an industry standard recognized level. And yes, the algos are aware of them. We we've said that for a while. Uh that tweet that you referenced uh you know it's confirmation bias, but it's something that we already knew and it's something that we're uh we're tuned into. Uh so that's really the level that we're looking uh that 7420. Can we get back above it? Uh can we hold it? How do we how do we end up closing? That's uh really going to be critical. Now back over to how we're doing in the portfolio is when we're really down to just holding four names right now. We've been stopped on everything and we've reduced our exposure uh not only on stocks but on the indexes as well. Uh but the things that we are still have small positions in are holding up pretty well.
Uh Dell is held in uh grow HPE uh sister company held in grow forming a very nice uh tight pattern here right below that 50 level and we also own Lily in growction. This has been a non- tech leader that's held up very well is making a higher high today. Uh we're also still involved in Data Dog in Turboction which is holding the 50-day moving average and forming a pretty nice cup and handle there. Uh and AMD as well uh also holding up very nicely undercut and held the 21-day moving average today. Uh nice tight action. So there are the river 100 uh which we talk about in some of our videos and we're going to talk about some of the names that have reported as I said positive and negative reactions but we're isolating the ones that are showing relative strength holding up uh not ones that have these low teen ATR uh daily patterns that are just uh asking to get shaken out. Um but here here's a good example of the the third day. Uh here's AMD. Pulled back hard on the third day, which was the 17th. That was last Friday. Put in a hammer candle. Then it went three days up if you chased it. Now you're looking at the second day pullback. But this is a very good low-risk entry on that because for one, you're not chasing because it rested for two days. Uh it undercut a key level, the 21-day moving average, and it's rallying. And there's a key level right below that, the 50-day moving average. uh that should also provide uh some support. So, >> and the 21 up the 21 the short-term moving average is actually turning up, hooking up.
>> The TW Yes, correct. The the 21 day is it it it um rolled over and then uh now is hooking back up and we'd like to see that too certainly. Uh so, that's where we are in the portfolios. That's where we are on the uh overall individual names. Um the NASDAQ 100. Let's take a look at the equal weight S&P 500 and this is outperforming today uh as it uh had one close below the 21 and got right back above it. This has been showing uh subtle relative strength uh because money is flowing out of these growth sectors and into value sectors. Let's take a look at SPYV. This is the value half of the S&P 500. You can see it's choppy, but you can see higher highs and higher lows being made in the relative strength line. Uh compare that to SPYG, uh the growth half, which is uh on a relative basis making lower highs and lower lows. So, this is a a somewhat healthy rotation. I say somewhat because you don't like to see the leaders get blasted the way that they did, but um you you get the you get what the market gives you. don't always get uh the market that you want quite obviously.
And let's look at uh IWM small caps bouncing off the 50-day moving average as well. They've been showing some relative weakness over the last uh month or so. Uh Ted made a very good point about oil. Uh here's USO. uh oil with the Iran conflict uh having a strong run this week and also the 10-year and the and the long bond uh yields broke out yesterday. Now, they're pulling back today, both yields and oil on this headline. And if that leaves this island at the top, that would be bullish for the market. We're always trying to put things into the positive column and the negative column. Yields have been in the negative column. uh if this puts in uh a top and if oil tops that's going to help the economy and certainly help the uh the overall market. So always keeping an open mind understanding the inner asset correlation we talk about it in uh the tale of the tape and in our videos every night. Uh these things are important and uh taking it day by day. It's been a tough, choppy market uh with the constant headlines uh and then add that add into that rising interest rates, a new Fed head. Um a lot going on, but um our core position in the S&P 500 has held up uh certainly well compared to uh growth names. And we've got levels to trade against. We've got levels uh that are bearish and are bullish. Uh, and Ted's going to dive into that a little bit deeper when he does his presentation. But, um, yeah. So, let's let's review some earnings now. Let's take it over to the guys. And Connor is going to start off, uh, with a, uh, a couple of key AI names that reported earnings. And he's going to talk about the reaction to that earnings, and we're going to start off with AER.
Connor, take it away.
>> Yep. Thanks, Don. So, you know, we're getting back into the swing of things in earnings season and so far it has been, >> you know, I would say uninspiring. The the reactions haven't been as strong as we saw say, you know, as we were coming off the bottom in April. So, AHR is the first one and you can see that ugly um bar that it had. That's because it initially gapped up 28% on earnings and the earnings were great. They had a, you know, they had a strong Q4. They improved their outlook and they received 8 million in new orders for silicon um carbide. And they also had a record quarterly bookings of 60 million and backlog of 80 million. So when you looked at the numbers, it looked good.
It was gaffing up 28%. Right? That was pretty bullish. And although this this base has been very very choppy um when you zoom out you know this stock had a monstrous move from you know 40 to triple digits and the market got weak and it you know it has a high ATR. So these big you know big 40 50% swings are just kind of the normal for a stock of this nature. So you know despite the volatility it was building out a decent base. Um but the reaction was was not what you want to see. um a gap. You would rather have a gap down um reversal and close green versus gap up and fade.
And again, what is that telling you?
That's essentially telling you that, you know, the market kind of already priced it in, you know, despite the good numbers. You know, why can't the stock go higher? So, that had a really ugly close and now it's back into the low end of the base. And another thing is in a weak market, these earnings gaps, you know, have a lower probability of working just just because of the market.
Um, and so now, you know, this one is back in the low end of the range and we're aware of the good earnings that it reported. We're aware of that reversal, but maybe this is just going to be a delayed reaction. It builds out in this base while the market chops around a little bit more and then provides a setup. So, we're not taking this off our radar. Um but you know uninspiring action on earnings for sure you know over a hundred you know all the way down to you know 80 bucks for now. So this is a good one to monitor in the coming weeks as it builds out this base although extremely volatile stock.
[clears throat] And then the next one is GE uh GEV. And this one also, you know, has had a pretty big run um the past couple years and the story has become more and more known. Um and again, this one they did have good earnings. They their Q2 EPS missed expectations, but um the the broader print showed strong demand cash generation.
um you know their data center orders over five billion year [clears throat] to date more than double of 2025. So when you just like you know looked at the headline it looked pretty good. The only thing was the main weak spot was wind revenues fell 10%. And again this one initially tried to gap up and then faded the whole day closed the day red and it just looks like the stock is you know in a big choppy base but it continues to make lower highs. So, you know, the bottom line is good earnings, good stock, not good price action. Um, you know, and it just continues to be choppy. So, that's GEV. And then last one, Intel, which was last night, and this one following the same theme, gap up and fade. Intel last night gapped up to 113 bucks a share um in the in the after hours and they had you know they had a Q2 beat strong Q3 outlook um seeing healthy demand you know the numbers look good but stock was unable to go higher and this is even after it's pulled back from you know you know 150s all the way down to sub 100 and this yeah it gapped up hit 113 everyone you know was like semi-trades are back on and then it, you know, now it's red right now down 2%. And that's really the the the story of the earning season so far. A lot of gap ups and fades and that just tells you one maybe one it's maybe that it's already priced in. Some of these stocks have made big moves. Or number two is that, you know, we're just in a weak market backdrop. And if you don't have the market behind your back, it's going to be very hard to um you know, you know, to hold up an earnings gap, especially with if people have higher cost basis, they see that gap up, they're just want to get out and that kind of creates a lot of supply. So really the bottom line for all these stocks are the numbers, catalyst, story, sales, fundamentals, future projections, all that is very important. you know that that is what gives you better odds to catch a good earnings gap. But at the end of the day, the only thing that matters is the price action. And no matter how good the numbers are, if the stock, you know, can't go up, goes red, then that's telling you everything you need to know despite, you know, not not the earnings call. So, it's going to be interesting. Earnings are picking back up quite a bit now moving forward. So, see if this trend changes. But these are three examples. And I I think Jackson's going to talk about some more that are following suit as well. Weak reactions.
>> Good stuff, Connor. One more uh that I want to chime in on that is holding up pretty well is ASML uh key chip manufacturer. Um and you know, great numbers of course. Uh beaten rays just kind of going sideways but not breaking down. What I like to do when we get earnings reactions like that is uh set uh alerts at the high and the low.
That'll tell you if uh it's breaking down out of the range from the earnings day or if it's going to break higher. In this case, we've seen both a break higher uh and a breakdown. Uh but again, that's giving you information and that's what this is all about. The market is a incomplete information. We try to put the pieces together as much as we can, but the reaction to the overall earnings report uh is what's important. And speaking of reactions, they're very often negative to earnings. Uh let's go over to Jackson and he's going to start off with a couple that uh despite some great numbers sometimes sometimes not great numbers. Uh but it's the reaction that counts and not the um not the earnings report, not the numbers reported. It's looking ahead and interpreting what's happening. And let's start off with Google. Take it away, Jackson.
>> Yeah, absolutely. Uh thank you for Thank you, Don. uh excited to be here today uh looking at Google. So like Don said, you know, we had another instance of uh a double beaten raise um and then combined with uh a raise uh an increase to the capex guidance which uh kind of you know affects the entire AI ecosystem. Um and in in this case uh even on that you know seemingly positive news price is truth like as Dan likes to say and uh [clears throat] Google gapped down uh and is breaking the 200 day really for the first time uh since the runoff the lows in uh in April of 2025. Uh and so Don if if uh another thing that I wanted to point out is that uh rejection at the 50-day uh there that was that was a big key tell the rounded 50-day got rejected twice and then failed lower into the the 200 day 40week. Uh but Don if you don't mind pulling up the weekly chart real quick I just want to highlight how this is really the uh the first definitive touch of the 40week moving average um since that low. And uh as far as the mag seven names are concerned, Google has largely been uh the leader during this entire cycle. Um so having this name showing such significant weakness on um you know another positive report just goes to show the changing character um and and the way that the market uh is now reacting to seemingly positive news.
Um awesome. Moving on [clears throat] to Tesla.
Um so Tesla was >> yeah Tesla was um actually a single beat uh beat on revenues missed on earnings um and and what we have here is another giant gap down in one of the MAG seven names um and you know kind of dropping uh dropping to the downside out of what was looking to be a tight range on the weekly chart. Um and so we we really don't like to see that weakness. Um and another thing that Don's kind of highlighting there on the intraday, right, we got the gap down go down. Um which just goes to show the the significant weakness uh after the report. Uh generally if the if there's an overreaction, you will see some form of strength after the gap down. And we haven't seen that with with price following through to the downside. Um and and Don, if you don't mind pulling up the weekly or the monthly. Uh, one thing I wanted to point out here in Tesla, very similar to um, very similar to Google, we're now breaking the long-term rising bottoms line from uh, the January 2023 low for the first time uh, since uh, since we put in that low.
Um, and so this is really just all risk off as as far as Tesla is concerned. Um, and recognizing that uh this this sort of damage is going to take a while to to play through.
Awesome. Moving on to uh STM, another name within uh the semiconductor uh semiconductor theme. Uh this had been one that that was shaping up quite well actually a few weeks ago uh and showing significant RS versus some of its counterparts. I know we we bought it in in grow one time and then also tried it in uh our personal sets as well. Um and and looking at this name, we had what was kind of a green line breakout into a fresh stage two uh O'Neal base uh and then ultimately just couldn't hold at the 50-day uh kind of tried to tried to bounce below the 65day uh and then had a report that was positive for this quarter but uh heavily relying on continued acceleration into Q4. uh and and that the market doesn't seem to like uh what they put out regarding uh regarding guidance. So just another tape bomb uh big gap down below the 100 day moving average there um and following through to the downside and and another thing to point out on earnings report was the the massive volume there. Um that's a that's a big negative uh from a technical standpoint.
So, uh, yeah, just quite quite the character shift and qualitative shift in the first round of earnings here as you've seen between the six or seven names we've looked at, uh, during Connor and I segments. So, passing it back to you, you Don.
>> Yeah, let's take a look at one more uh, that was holding up extremely well uh, as as little as a couple of weeks ago and uh, put up earnings. Look at the earnings growth on this. This is MXL max linear 650% 1650% earnings growth down today 19%.
Uh and this is another one where uh we own this. We got stopped out on it and it made a 4-day bounce just enough to make people stop start thinking about wanting to get back into it. met with uh an earnings report that um just blasted lower, just not working. Uh and if it's not working, uh you can't do more of what's working and do less of what's not is a a pretty simple way to approach the market. But um very important to know. Uh one other thing about Google I want to uh go back to one of the reasons that it was negatively perceived is they are spending so much in capex which benefits a lot of the other AI infrastructure players but they're spending so much that they are now cash flow negative and when you're cash flow negative is not a way to run a company long term but they're basically going allin on AI understanding that if they fall behind they um it's survival of the fittest.
and they've got a massive niche, but with AI out there, they need to stay on the top of uh where people go when they want information and you got to spend money to keep up there. But the hyperscalers, and they're one of them, uh the market is starting to frown on all that money that's being spent and them going cash flow negative was a pretty big news headline. Great stuff, Jackson. Let's turn the controls over to Ted.
and he's going to bring up Deep View and uh talk about some of the tools that he uses within Deep View and uh show us what you got, Ted.
>> Thank you, Don. So, at River, we typically primarily gravitate towards moving averages, but for this segment, I turned off all the moving averages to, you know, give you guys a different perspective. We don't use anchor views that often, but there are certain use cases. I mean they are really useful and perhaps we we should use them a little more sometimes but pretty much what an anchor VWOP is everyone is probably familiar with the regular VWOP but Brian Shannon he's you know he's quite well-known person in the technical analysis world and he developed anchored VWOPS which is pretty much an average of price as well as volume combined into a indicator that just shows whether buyers and seller or sellers are in control.
And with the anchor view, it becomes flexible where you can anchor it to any single day, week, or just depending on what time frame you're on. So, this is the chart of the S&P 500. I have two anchor VWOPs drawn. One is from the Iran correction low and then the second one is from the Trump ceasefire announcement. And with anchor VW ops, you don't want to arbitrarily just set the anchor view up to any single day.
You want to pick major lows, major highs, major catalyst days. So then again, it could also be used for earnings gaps too. But for the sake of the index, we used it for this follow-through day here on the catalyst and then the major low that we put in just a few months ago. And what you see is these lines that are drawn on the chart. It's indicative of whether buyers or sellers are in control. And you can see with the S&P 500, the previous two pullbacks were contained between the anchor VWOP from the gap day from the Trump ceasefire as well as the Iran correction low. So those are two really key levels that we're watching for. Don already talked about the 7420 level which we are holding now but there's two below two major ones that are showing that right now buyers are still in control from the gap up day and from the correction low day. So that is definitely a good sign. Two key levels we're watching which is about 7350 and the whole number 300.
If this pullback or correct, short-term correction were to continue further, another layer of analysis we occasionally use are fib retracements, which just give us some levels to potentially look for support. And you can see the first fib retracement, which is a 23.6% one, also coincides with these anchor view ops, which has contained the pullback so far in the S&P 500. If it were to continue further, we would look at the next 381 and then perhaps 50, which is sometimes normal in a huge move. But right now, we're these the support levels here at the 23.6% fib and the two anchored VW ops are containing it so far. So that is definitely really constructive in [clears throat] the NASDAQ.
Similarly, just a couple levels as well anchored at the gap day from Trump ceasefire as well as the Iran correction lows. You can see right now the NASDAQ is relatively weaker than the S&P 500.
We broke the anchor VWOP from the gap day, but we did hold really today. The low of today was right at the anchor VWOP extending back to the Iran war correction lows. And it's really no coincidence that we are finding support here. This is really one of the last lines in the sand since this move that shows whether buyers or sellers are in control. So as of now buyers have stepped up today. They defended this level which is about 685 and that also coincides with this key low here of base which is June 9th's low. So that's another very key level we're watching for. The next step for this index is to close today strong, holding that 685 area and then reclaiming the 700 whole number area, which was one of our keys this week. And also, again, it coincides pretty much with this anchor view off as well. Let's say the correction does pull back further. What areas could we potentially look for support? I'm going to turn on the moving averages again because there's a lot of confluence.
When you see have confluence in various technical analysis methods, you can gain greater confidence that that level could be defended either by sellers or buyers.
But in this case, if we do correct further, this is getting a little messy, which is why we don't like to use so many at once. Just destroys your charts and there's just too much going on. But anyways, we do correct further. You have the 100 day moving average here in teal, which also coincides with 38.2% fib level. And then if it gets even worse, you have the 50% fib level, which means you pulled back, you retraced 50% of the current move from the lows to the high. That 150day moving average is there as well. And that also coincides with around the breakout level of 640.
So, those are just some key levels we're watching for based off fib retracements and anchor VWOPS aside from our moving average analysis.
So, just wanted to share those. We don't really talk about these that often, but here it is quite relevant.
>> More tools in the toolbox. Thanks, Ted.
And that's it from the tech side. you can.
>> Well, thank you, Don. And and the bottom line, folks, for the retail people that don't quite get this, they're not traders. VWAP means volume weighted average price. So, it takes kind of a combination of both volume and price, right? The other thing Don was showing when he showed the NASDAQ is a 21 exponential moving average is breaking below the 50-day.
That means short-term momentum in the NASDAQ is weak.
That means you got to be very selective or move to value or do something and it's going to be uh key on two things.
The other the last thing he had he had he had a chart of interest rates and it looked bullish because it was going up.
That means bond prices are going down.
They move opposite. So interest rates and oil are going to be key.
But the bottom line is what's in your portfolio and does your advisor or do you sound like these guys?
Listen, if you like what you heard, please tell a friend, tell a neighbor.
Just go to reverasset.com.
Up in the righthand corner, there's a subscribe button. Uh, and this will come to you Saturday morning. However, if you go to YouTube and just type in Rever Asset, search for and hit subscribe, Zach, our producer, will have this out probably by 12:30 [music] or 1 central time, so you can actually use it and take some action. On our website, there's a contact us [music] button if you want to reach out and want a complimentary portfolio review or simply want to become a client or have questions that you want [music] discussed on air.
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Because it's not about how much you make in the markets, it's about how much you can keep. [music] [music] [music]
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