Iran Still Has a Strangle on The World's Economy Because Hormuz Says Dagres

[00:00:00]I wonder what you're anticipating in terms of Iran's response. If you expect it to be a positive one given the activity we've seen in the Strait Of Hormuz in the last few days.

[00:00:09]Well, you know, the the it's separate from the activity. I think the substance of what has been at least reportedly noted by, I think it was the Wall Street Journal, is that this memorandum of understanding, it's said to be a one pager. The Wall Street Journal reported on 14 points, and a lot of it had to do with the country's controversial nuclear program, one that president Donald Trump had said had been obliterated last summer. And the reason I'm bringing this up is because a lot of points are saying that Iran could basically not have a nuclear program at all. Zero enrichment, shutting down its nuclear facilities, handing any highly enriched uranium, outside the country, and this is really a sticking point for the Iranians. They've invested billions of dollars into their nuclear program. They've had their nuclear scientists killed over the years, and they've had two wars. And now these growing calls from in Tehran saying, well, had we had a nuclear weapon, we wouldn't had these wars to begin with because they would have deterred one would have deterred a war. So I think that's really gonna be the sticking points for the Iranians, and so I'm not very optimistic that the Trump administration's gonna get the response that they're hoping for.

[00:01:25]Well, especially as the Washington Post reported yesterday that there's new CIA analysis that indicates Iran can withstand this US naval blockade for another three to four months before it starts to feel real economic pain, Holly. Is it just not yet the time in which, Iran may be, willing to make concessions, like, on the nuclear program as you suggest? Do you think the president ultimately is going to have to wait this out a little longer?

[00:01:51]I think, unfortunately, yes. And even, your own, outlets reporting, they were saying that there were actually Chinese cargo planes going into the country every three to four days reportedly. And so I think it's also important to emphasize that the Islamic Republic has one of the best sanctions evasion playbook globally. So much so that when the Ukraine war started in 2022 and Russia was being sanctioned on a multilateral front, they had Russian businessmen flying into Tehran to learn their ways. So I really think that they're willing to feel that pain and, in many ways, amble along like a zombie regime it's been doing for years now. So I think that they're really counting on president Donald Trump to blink first because they technically, I know granted now we're in a blockade, but they still have a strangle on much of the world's economy because of the Strait Of Hormuz at this juncture.

[00:02:48]Well and help me rationalize this, Holly, because if we're talking about an Iran that is willing to withstand a certain degree of economic, pain, not just for the regime, but for the people, of Iran as we have seen, then why would Iran be incentivized by sanctions relief in any, agreement? What what would sanctions relief provide to the regime that that they would be willing to make concessions, for if they are so willing to tolerate and operate as a zombie economy?

[00:03:16]Well, you know, sanctions relief are a Band Aid. You have to remember the reason that assets were moved to the region in January was because of an anti regime uprising that resulted in the unprecedented massacre of tens of thousands of Iranian protesters. And some of that has to do with them being fed up with systemic issues of mismanagement, corruption, and repression.

[00:03:38]And so if sanctions relief were to be given to the Islamic Republic, it could be a Band Aid on some of those economic issues and actually, keep some of the peace on the ground for the time being, until they decide what they're going to do next.

[00:03:52]So I think for them, it is something and, unfortunately, I think realistically speaking, there the what we've seen is that they won't be giving that money exactly to the Iranian people.

[00:04:04]They will be building much of their domestic nuclear program, its ballistic missiles capabilities, and defense capabilities. And then any left that's trickled down, it's going to be an economic bone to the very small group of supporters it has left.

[00:04:20]Well, when we use terms like it referring to the regime or they, who really are we talking about, Holly, as the decision makers here that will be providing a formal response or making an ultimate decision, on a proposal and deal with The United States? How do we know for sure that whoever it is that, makes those decisions is is one that everybody is going to be willing to to go with and a decision that will be stood by by all parties, including the IRGC.

[00:04:48]So I know there's a lot of, commentary about the Osamaic Republic being flat fractured due to some of the, killings of senior leadership since the war began. That being said, I I think really what we're seeing here is a more hard hard line and repressive elements of the clerical establishment take over. And so, our understanding as supreme leader Ayatollah supreme leader Moskow Khomeini is actually in live. He's just in hiding and gravely injured. And much of the leadership is still in place. Granted, there are new faces leading the IRGC and the the secretary of the Supreme National Security Council, but these people were part of the clerical establishment before. And so what you're really seeing is this jockeying of power between, some of the more traditional, elements of the Islamic Republic and now this more, front facing IRGC. And so, basically, it's more of these hardline voices that are pushing for much more of a a stronger posture against United States because they believe that if they don't do that, then they're gonna have to face another war in the near future.

[00:05:58]Just quickly, Holly, if this is a more hardline, regime, does that mean Israel might actually have more to fear now in terms of the existential threat than it did prior to this operation starting?

[00:06:11]Potentially. I mean, you know, I think the Trump administration thought they were going to get a Venezuela out of this, that they were gonna kill the supreme leader and somebody would come up and make the deal that they were hoping to get. And what we've seen is that, unfortunately, that we've come up with a North Korea instead, one that is more hardline, more repressive, more emboldened. And if it had its struthers, it would go all the way with its nuclear program because they would think that a nuclear weapon would deter for future conflict like this. And we're already seeing these trend trend lines just from some of the commentary of senior senior leadership. The new supreme leader has come out and said that they would not be negotiating over their nuclear program or ballistic missiles. And, of course, there's also a state imposed Internet shutdown since the war began, and so the people are also unable to express themselves in these moments.