Let's talk about the midterm forecast before campaigning really starts….

[00:00:01]Well, howdy there internet people. It's Belle again.

[00:00:06]So, today we're going to talk about the midterm forecast before campaigning really starts.

[00:00:14]So, we're about a week away from the 100 days until the midterm coverage starts getting blasted all over the media. So, we're going to take a look at where we sit now before the campaigning really starts in earnest.

[00:00:30]This also serves as a heads up to remind everybody that you're about to be swamped with a ton of campaign rhetoric.

[00:00:38]A bunch of false and misleading claims.

[00:00:41]A bunch of attempts to scapegoat your neighbors over their race, identity, orientation, beliefs, economic status, and so on.

[00:00:52]Okay, so as it stands right now, Democrats are widely favored to take control of the House and current Decision Desk HQ forecasts show Democrats obtaining a 226 to 209 majority.

[00:01:09]The forecasts also show Republicans maintaining control of the Senate, but only because of JB Vance's tiebreaking vote. The projection is currently 50 to 50. Democrats have a 40% chance of obtaining control of both houses.

[00:01:28]Republicans have about a 64% chance of losing at least one chamber.

[00:01:34]Now, it's worth noting that this is where the forecast stands before the real campaigning begins.

[00:01:42]The outcome could change drastically, but this forecast lines up with most.

[00:01:48]So, let's just say it's what happens.

[00:01:51]The Democratic majority in the House stops the direct attack on the working class. A Democratic House majority puts an end to the constant budget reconciliation packages.

[00:02:04]It ends the ridiculous cuts to workingclass programs, and it would at least put Congress back in the game the way the Constitution wanted.

[00:02:14]Democrats in the House could also theoretically use their committees to investigate some of the Trump administration's actions and bring them to light. But if Republicans retain control of the Senate, the best the country can hope for is for Democrats to stop increased damage resulting from things that require congressional approval.

[00:02:40]Trump's executive branch will still run rampant. And with a compliant Senate, the legislative branch won't be able to stop him completely.

[00:02:51]There have been a handful of Republican senators that have crossed over on some issues recently, and there will probably be an increase in that after the midterms when Trump becomes even more of a lame duck. But it won't be enough to push through legislation to reverse the damage Trump has already done. It's just enough to stop more legislative damage.

[00:03:19]So based on this forecast, the country will spend at least two more years absorbing more damage from Trump's whims. And really, it would take a pretty big shift in public opinion to change that.

[00:03:35]But more than a 100 days is a lifetime in a campaign cycle. We'll see how things play out. But as it stands, the forecast suggests large parts of the American working class aren't tired of punching themselves in the face yet. But it's time to get ready for campaign season to really heat up. And of course, right before the election, you'll be blasted with claims that will turn out to be false after the election.

[00:04:08]Generally, if a scandal breaks right before the election and it isn't related to something that occurred right then, it's safe to assume that it won't hold up afterward.

[00:04:20]Anyway, it's just a thought. Y'all have a good day.