Iran War, TRIPP Money, and Armenia’s Political Purgatory | Ep 561, Jul 19, 2026

[00:00:04]Hello everyone. Welcome to the Armenian News Network group weekend review for July 19, 2026.

[00:00:11]Folks, just a quick reminder that we are always inviting you to support us financially as well as morally and in spirit. We love the comments that you make on our shows and we really appreciate the likes. Uh although we could definitely see more shares, a lot more shares. So share our shows, but definitely visit podcasts.grung.org/donate and consider becoming a sustaining member. It would be awesome for all of us, not just Grung, but yourself as well.

[00:00:41]>> And thank you for those who have supported us in the past uh or who are actually continuing uh supporters. Thank you from the bottom of our hearts. It means a lot.

[00:00:51]>> Absolutely. Okay, on with the show. Hi, what do you have? the war in Iran given that Armenia is Iran's northern neighbor. Um now if there was any doubt that theou the memorandum of understanding that was signed on June 17th between US and Iran was dead um this week marked the decisive and bloody collapse of thatou. The escalations started I guess on July 7th and slowly in a tit for that manner they're now spiraling out of control. many publications that we've read or at least that I've read and I watched uh the YouTube was full of interviews by John Mirshimer and many others this week lead me to conclude and that there is no end in sight to this conflict and there's no clear victory for the either either e either side like uh I think John Mirshimer put it more formally that the US has no theory of victory Um, and I'm using his quotes. Uh, by so by the end of the week, the conflict has reached a grim milestone. On the night of July 17th, 3 days ago, uh, Iranian ballistic missiles struck the Muafak al-Salti air base in Jordan, hitting a troop billetting that area with high precision. And, uh, the attack resulted in the deaths of four US service members, including also destroyed and damaged aircraft. Blackhawk helicopters, F-15s even. Um, now the week concluded with vertical escalation by the United States which struck a nuclear plant in Darov that was under construction and that triggered warnings from the IAEA to stop attacks against peaceful civilian nuclear infrastructure. Iranian officials also reported that the US air strikes heavily damaged the Bunji desalinization plant in the Hormos gun province um disrupting drinking water for the population there of about 10,000 residents and 20 villages and Iran also responded to that by bombing desalination plants uh and power plants in Kuwait threatening the freshwater supply for millions in the region. Now that is very curious to me why the US would strike desalination plants because Iran relies on 10% of its drinking water from desalination plants probably even less less than 10%. Now the Gulf states which Iran reciprocated against uh Kuwait for instance is 90% run on desalination. If you destroy those plants, then 90%, you know, >> I think Saudi Arabia also relies very heavily on dalinated water >> and so does uh Oman. And it was exactly those states that reportedly called up Trump in panic requesting that Trump deescalate.

[00:03:57]But then the question becomes why did Trump escalate against desalination plants and other civilian infrastructure to begin with? Another word that a less less formal word that Mir Shimemer used is the US is just flailing in the wind as he said.

[00:04:12]>> Yeah.

[00:04:13]>> And uh so what is the US endgame? What what are your thoughts?

[00:04:18]>> You know I I do not know. It just feels to me like there's no plan uh at present. I think right now we're kind of a holding pattern as we head towards October for the Israeli elections and then in November when there will be the US midterm elections, but not everything is closed. I think that uh even at at this time right now there is a delegation from Iran that is headed to Islamabad and they're going to be continuing the talks and I believe that interestingly while this what I call the controlled escalation that we have seen both of the countries have not closed the diplomatic path. So I think that what they are doing is they're using the the war escalation as a means for negotiation upper hand. Does that make sense?

[00:05:06]>> Yeah, but that would imply that I mean at least one of the sides would see that escalating would be beneficial and my my just thoughts are uh it seems like the US was the primary responsible party for breaking the ceasefire and why would the escalation be good for United States right now? And what did it do? Like it it attempted a 40-day strategic bombing.

[00:05:32]uh it attempted a naval blockade and those didn't yield any results. What will >> well well look I think that the Republicans have a lot of problems in the United States. There are problems with popular discontent about inflation, other economic issues. And right now when there is war, hardly anybody really has the time to talk about those things.

[00:05:58]And another thing that I want to mention is that in Switzerland reportedly and and I got this from I think it was Drop Site News, the Iranian delegation let JD Vance know that the American negotiators are taking personal financial advantage of these negotiations through market manipulations. They were saying that these negotiators and others in their circle are making about $9 billion in market manipulations. Of course, this has been denied and Iran has said at uh in due time they are going to publish all the evidence uh for this. So for me, the interesting thing is that while they're on the offensive in negotiations, we are hearing a lot less about the initial reasons why this war even started. Supposedly Iran's nuclear power, you know, enriched uranium and stuff like that. We have gone very far from that. And now we are talking about a deep lack of trust in the negotiation process, rebuilding trust in the process. This is gonna take forever and a half. So, >> is this gonna be like essentially another forever war?

[00:07:11]>> It it seems to me. Yeah, we we talked uh to one of our friends this morning and that was exactly the question. We want to when we when we record that show uh in a week or so, we are going to ask is the United States in a brand new forever war with this Iran business?

[00:07:28]>> Yeah, >> let's see how it goes. In any case, I I just don't see that we are going to have a full-blown war. We're just going to have this simmering escalation or controlled escalation at least until November and the two sides are just going to um exchange.

[00:07:44]>> Why would why would Iran allow the US to escalate and then allow the US to quietly deescalate?

[00:07:52]So we have actually two very interesting interviews by Mir Shimemer that we'll link in the show notes and that was uh it was very interesting that basically Mir Shimemer is arguing that the Iranian position right now is more favorable is stronger than June 17th and any negotiation that happens right now will be more beneficial to Iran. Um and and Iran essentially has this coercive leverage, right? It can um it can tank markets at will uh just by blocking hormuz. And um the question then becomes okay um does this brinkmanship by this billionaire class, the Robert Baron class, is it eventually still going to be beneficial for them? Because if the global economy tanks, their assets also will be uh you know destroyed. So or or uh uh reduce so I mean it seems like out of even out of out of self-interest they should they should you know seek a solution a negotiated solution but that's not >> well it's not it's not Iran going and bombing uh the United States or anything. They're sitting 12 time zones away from the United States and getting bombed. I believe that the Iranians want this thing to go away completely. But uh uh I I'm seeing that the retaliation is having some effect. Now they've got the Gulf countries um on their side saying telling the United States to stop it because if their desalination plants are taken out, there's going to be some very serious repercussions for these countries. I think you said it's like an existential problem for them if they're not going to have any drinking water for millions of people. So Iran is putting the kind of pressure it believes that will end or stop or pause for a very long time this issue while Israel and United States are basically making uh threats saying that they're locked and loaded. They have plenty of new ammo and they're wanting to continue but um they have political issues at home. So I see I see the current state just continuing on and on for a while. But but uh thinking more strategically um do you agree with Tita Parcy who uh in a very interesting Substack post argued that uh essentially the uh era of US military dominance in the Middle East is over. Um and he argued that this conflict has revealed stunning limitations of the American security umbrella over the Middle East at least.

[00:10:27]Do you agree with that? who who am I to disagree with Freda Parci? I think he is he is quite amazing. So obviously yeah but uh when when I read the stuff that he had written I went to look I think a few weeks ago I mentioned that a country like Iran double the size of Turkey you just can't bomb it into submission. It's a huge country huge resources 90 million people it has the kind of resources it it has to absorb a lot of pain and survive. and it's obviously done this for 6,000 7,000 plus years. Um, but I did go into um some AI and did a little bit of Math Hovig just to see I just wanted for our listeners to put a little perspective on Iran's size.

[00:11:11]How would Iran compared to France for example?

[00:11:15]>> Well, I think Iran is the size of all of Western Europe combined. Uh, if I miss Yes. So, so I just kept adding in Europe. Yeah, >> it's the size of France, Germany, Italy, Poland, the UK, all of them together, the top five countries in Europe, all of them put together, basically it's 1.65 million uh versus 1.75. So, it's it's a tiny little bit more for all those five countries. But just to give you a perspective, you would have to bomb all of continental Europe to to get any kind of >> Did the US military not know this when they attacked Iran? I just >> in January.

[00:11:54]>> Yeah. Well, >> all right.

[00:11:56]>> I don't know what the US military knows.

[00:11:58]>> Enough rhetorical questions. Someone should have handed them a map. May maybe it was the uh maybe it was the scaling of the map. You know how it's always uh >> That's right. Well, the northern countries look very very Maybe they were looking at a map of Greenland.

[00:12:17]Anyway, >> I know that we are >> Yeah, we we are laughing about it, but it's it's very serious considering uh both Iranian and US uh troops are dying.

[00:12:28]You know, I think you mentioned a little bit earlier. I think the number of US servicemen who have died is 17. I'm American. It hurts me to know that uh these these kids did not need to die.

[00:12:41]And um dozens if not hundreds of uh Iranians have died as well in these bombings and that's not nice either.

[00:12:48]>> Of course uh this is all this was all preventable. It's regrettable but in the age of when swords are doing the talking. I think that Iran has so far proven that it can stand on par with the biggest superpower in the world and all signs are pointing to a resurging Iran which I would only welcome because you know not because I'm promilitarist but I think that it would actually be bring more peace to the region. Uh it will it will tame Israel, it will tame Turkey and it will tame tame Azarban.

[00:13:25]And I think that uh a strategically strong Iran that emerges after this will be very beneficial for Armenia as well. People all over the Middle East and around the world deserve a little peace right now. So our prayers are with them and we hope that uh peace uh comes to the region soon and I for one I think that will be very beneficial for Armenia as well. A an Iran that emerges strong after this with a peace deal in hand in the United States. And unfortunately, it seems that it has to come through the price of of war. But let's see what happens. What's going on in Armenia as >> uh well Hovik actually it's a little very little is going on other than the opposition announcing that they've uh decided to take up the mandates in the parliament despite the fact that they say the the elections were falsified.

[00:14:20]There is currently not much going on on the political scene in Yavan. It's uh hot. It's uh summertime. It's vacation time. And a lot of people are probably not there. And usually, you know, Yervan politics heat up in the fall, as they say. So, in the middle of summer, you really can tell there's not a lot going on. If you were to read government press um whether you look at uh their their um television and radio or whether you look at Armen press um articles, most of it is stuff going on in Europe. It tries to give you the impression that Armenia is part of Europe.

[00:14:57]So they are reporting on fires in Spain, um stuff going on in France, uh heatwave here, whatever. It's all Europe, Europe, Europe. So you can really tell that there's not a lot going on in Armenia.

[00:15:10]>> Yeah.

[00:15:10]>> Um >> it's kind of uh surreal. It's kind of surreal, right? Talking about summer vacations uh in the midst of a falsified election. I think a lot of people were in the opposition were dissatisfied and disillusioned with the results of the election. So what happens now?

[00:15:26]>> Well, so the so the interesting thing is that I think there were some expectations that uh the opposition leaders were going to do something more you know that there what so what do you expect? What did you expect from uh the opposition or the opposition leaders?

[00:15:43]Look, I don't know. I no longer know what to expect because uh these elections were clearly falsified and it seems like no one gives a damn. The we talked about how the OCE uh head was pranked into uh criticizing their own electoral observation mission. And in an environment like that, I don't say I I I I would never advocate for for apathy or just anarchy, but I think that um in this environment to me statements and the opposition statements still make sense, but I would love to see more evidence that their plan is bulletproof. Like they're saying essentially right now it would be an inopportune moment in the middle of the summer heat to hit the streets and do what? Like everyone is in vacation. All the government offices are uh in vacation. Pashin is probably on vacation as well. Um and Karetan was saying that uh street movements will coincide uh with and the escalation from the opposition will coincide with the trigger. That makes sense to me. And I know a lot of people are dissatisfied. A lot of people are now like, you know, yelling, uh, well, you know, everyone has that uncle, right? Who's >> I'm also one of those dissatisfied people, but for different reasons. So, sometimes it feels to me like the opposition really doesn't even know how to take opportunities that come along.

[00:17:17]For example, uh these uh persecutions of Zarugan that started and they closed down what was it 70 of his enterprises and uh tens of thousands of people ended up out of their jobs. A lot of people started uh protesting. So there was a clear labor issue. It was popular as well because people just flooded the streets in their in their areas. This is this was not a major Yervene thing. Uh, a lot of people started protesting and I'm thinking, wow, this could be just a popular movement. If only there was a leader who just decided to galvanize it and do something with it, but nothing.

[00:17:55]And the government certainly is very very savvy about these things. If they see that these people just want that factory open, they'll open that factory and and take out the air from that protest and let it fizzle away while um they're they're they're managing their crisis. You know what the opposition sort of reminds me of this Tumman story.

[00:18:14]What is it called? I think Kent Marta, right? Uh this guy gets promised uh happiness and riches and then goes through a number of little adventures, meets a beautiful woman, says, "Oh no, I can't stay with you because I've been promised uh happiness and riches and and finds a pot of gold, just leaves it alone, and then at the end is left with nothing." And God says, "What what more can I do for you? I sent all these things your way and you didn't take them. So, I feel like the opposition is a little bit like that.

[00:18:44]>> Look, it's easy to criticize the opposition. We'll talk more about the number of opposition members in jail right now. And I I would like I I am empathetic to the fact that we Armenia is now a totalitarian country. If not totalitarian, then it's definitely on its way. And in a totalitarian regime, I mean eventually it will break, but uh power has to be used uh strategically and conservatively. And I just don't see like how you know I always like argue with my friends. Okay. Um I don't want to I don't want to recite Pashian's argument that okay if uh if there is a street revolution in Armenia if 2018 immediately when that happened it received the applause from the west um if there's a street revolution in Armenia and so Gapan comes to power do you think Russia will recognize that government even the first thing that will happen by the west is unilateral sanctions and also multi unilateral UN sanctions if let's say somebody leads a protest movement. Uh so Armenia needs diplomatic backing in the United Nations at least um uh to prevent multilateral sanctions. I don't want to say it's all out of our hands. I don't want to deny Armenia agency and I want to I don't want to deny the opposition agency, but Armenia needs the right external conditions to have a revolution. And I think that's also one of the calculations uh in the opposition uh playbook. So call me um you know cynical, call me like you know denying excuse me of denying agency to the opposition but I think all the things need to align and as long as there's a war in Ukraine uh Russia is very actually cognizant of not opening a second front in the south caucuses and also that's a risk. Pinan says there will be war in September. I don't want to uh recite his threats but yes once comes to power what next u do you think ali will sit calmly or will he try to escalate here and there and again we have to turn to Russia and Iran uh for uh some and Iran has its own war going on so I just think that the stars are not aligned right now but that doesn't mean that there's we should be satisfied with with the opposition's actions right now, but you know, okay, can we can we prove that they're not doing anything? And I don't think that's also >> Well, I'm not saying that they're not doing anything, but um they're not preparing just >> we should just agree to disagree that enough is being done. Maybe or maybe I feel like you're you're giving them too much credit for for the patience they're showing, whatever. Frankly, it's been five years of patience and no results.

[00:21:44]And I I I do expect more uh and I hope they have that. But um I am a person who has no agency on Armenian affairs. So there you go.

[00:21:54]>> Well um actually as a diasporan you should have agency but you're being denied that agency by the Pashian government but that's but that's separate story.

[00:22:03]>> We talked a little bit about uh labor issues and things like that. Uh there is a new boss in Armenia. There's a guy who purchased the second largest mining um enterprise in Armenia and uh there is enough evidence that he has the livers that he can yank this government's chains as well. Constantinov, why don't you tell us a little bit about his new exploits in Armenia?

[00:22:31]>> Well, Constantine Sokov, I think that's the the name in the media this week and uh he's an American investor. Uh now, Western media like to preface it by saying he's a Russianborn American investor somehow to diminish his pro-Republican, pro uh uh Trump credentials, but essentially uh Constantine Sokov uh who who's born in Russia, has Jewish roots, has been appointed chairman of the new trip plus enterprise fund, a US state departmentbacked investment vehicle.

[00:23:10]that we've talked about before which will oversee at least 200 million in projects for Armenia, Georgia, um Aaron and Central Asia as part of this whole trip thing. And >> and if it's successful, I've heard that this might actually go up to 400 million plus.

[00:23:29]>> Yeah.

[00:23:29]>> Yeah.

[00:23:29]>> So that's almost half a billion dollars to be spent in the South Caucuses.

[00:23:34]>> Yeah. And the news is that in the same week the same guy acquired uh the second largest mine copper mine in Armenia the Teut mine. So and he's not new to Armenia. He's also a controlling stakeholder or shareholder in Viva Armenia which is one of the uh telecommunications companies in Armenia.

[00:23:56]>> Um so you might like you might think >> is it just Viva or is it Vivasel? It used to be called Vivasell, but the the short the name of the company is Viva Armenia. So it's it used to be Vivasel before. Um so he acquired 49.9% uh in the Tehoot copper malibdum mine from another Russian entity, the stateowned BTB bank. But is that the end of the story? So how did like you know of course the US side of the things is more interesting, right? How did this guy get appointed to oversee all those funds in trip?

[00:24:34]>> I'm glad you asked.

[00:24:36]Sov has also donated more than $12 million to the Republican campaigns and political groups during Trump's second term. Reportedly, this includes $1 million to Trump's MAGA super PAC and half a million dollars to the Republican National Committee. Um, he was also among the donors to Trump's planned White House ballroom. We don't know the exact amount.

[00:25:01]>> I know that what a nice ballroom, the ballroom.

[00:25:04]>> We actually donated money donated.

[00:25:06]>> The ballroom and the war in Iran. The ballroom and the war war in Iran. I mean, yeah, those are the top news.

[00:25:12]>> Uh, >> so so he gives all this money and then suddenly he's appointed uh to run trip plus all these government appointment.

[00:25:19]He's not the first person. I mean, there's uh the the Trump administration is ripe with with these things.

[00:25:26]>> It's not just the Trump administration.

[00:25:28]Excuse me, Osped. Like, have we forgotten the exploits of Hunter Biden and the 10% for the big guy? So it's not it's but it's it's just a rising robber baron class that seems to be uh making profits left and right from any geopolitical deal that the United States puts its military and geopolitical power behind.

[00:25:51]>> Is there any kind of control oversight on this entity this trip plus fund? What have you heard? If you ask if if you ask the state department then yes but this is a guy he has very important interests in telecommunications and mining in Armenia and he is going to be handing out money for telecommunications and mining projects and transportation projects in Armenia.

[00:26:20]So you tell me. Uh I think that uh that's a rhetorical question in my opinion.

[00:26:29]>> So at what point does this stop uh looking like an independent economic development oig and start looking more like a division of Armenia's strategic assets, natural resources?

[00:26:39]>> I I think we're way past that point.

[00:26:42]It's uh it's it's it's happening right in front of our eyes and it's um nothing more than just u you know neoc colonialism with a tinge of billionaire class sort of you know um it's not it's not countries that are colonializing now it seems to be individual billionaires uh that are taking >> I know with the rise of these billionaires turning trillionaires It's very I mean they they can buy entire countries and and not like peanut countries either like Armenia they can buy sizable countries Elon Musk for example with a trillion dollars uh well it's not in the bank but uh enterprises and everything is a is a huge amount of power that he can wield everywhere. Let me ask you a question, Aspet.

[00:27:32]>> Okay.

[00:27:33]>> So, you always say that if you were the president of Armenia dot dot dot. So, if you were the president of Armenia, if you're Armenian leadership, who apparently has uh you know veto power over trip, would you accept this person leading trip or leading the distribution of funds for trip? Hovi, I don't believe that I would have as as president of Armenia, I would have the agency to say yes or no. Um, here we have a very unequal partnership between Armenia and the United States. First of all, they have 74% for the next 49 years and then they're going to have something like 51% I think for the next 99 years. And I don't believe that Armenia could at this point say no, we're not going to do this. Uh it's going to take a a major geopolitical shift for Armenia to be backed by some regional friends to come and say we're not going to do this. It's >> there you go denying agency to the Armenian opposition. But >> u it's not it's not the opposition. I'm I'm denying agency to the Armenian government that's going to represent or going to be at the table with the United States, with these socalves, with these ali, you know, they're going to have more way more agency than any Armenian is going to be able to uh to wield. But >> I do want to point one thing out here about the trip. The more that the United States uh protracts this conflict it has with Iran, the less likely it is that this trip thing is going to be realized.

[00:29:10]I'm not saying it's not going to be realized, but the longer that this war is going on, the less leverage America has in Armenia because nobody's going to plop millions, hundreds of millions of dollars in a place that is right on the border with Iran um and ready to be destroyed with, let's say, some ballistic missiles.

[00:29:30]It's not going to happen.

[00:29:31]>> Yeah. I mean even just uh looking at the investment climate in Armenia uh you know in 2018 there was a healthy amount of foreign investment in Armenia all of that has dwindled down to zero >> it's evaporated >> and any businessman who is against the government is being persecuted he so no if all things were equal if there was an even playing field legally uh then no businessman foreign or domestic in their right mind would invest in Armenia unless they have Pinians in their pocket. So that's I think the other clue um that we are missing. But you know I think the right answer I still want to go back and say that okay if the Armenian opposition takes power do we have to just rely on foreign powers uh to undo trip for us? We got ourselves you know into this mess a little bit. So, you know, I think I think there is some there is some agency and I think Armenia could have um with the right leadership uh could have argued for a more impartial a more um what do you call it um a person with less conflict of interest to be at least doing this.

[00:30:48]>> So, so that was a key term that you used with the right leadership which I don't believe that we have at present. um we don't have a person who is able to say no to things that go counter to um Armenian national interests. Let me let me do a final word on this uh topic. Um have you ever read the term about Sokov saying um Russian Jewish turned American billionaire so >> no >> I'm sure you have not. Every time there is an article that talks about Garabedian, it says Armenian billionaire. Garabedian as if that's basically either a warning or an insult to the guy. So at every point they are going to say Russian Armenian and they're going to say billionaire as if I mean nobody says billionaire Elon Musk or billionaire Sakalov or something like that. for anybody on the wrong side of >> especially um yeah especially if you read the press about Armenia now I I mean in the US political context I I guess there might be some left u leaning press that would use that term but um for the NGO backed media in Armenia that is like okay yeah uh foreign investor so versus Russian billionaire got up sometimes they don't even omit Armenian Yeah.

[00:32:13]>> Um but since you mentioned it truly I think has been one of the u biggest benefactors of Armenia. He has in my opinion he's the most pro-armmen diasporan and now he wants to be uh and he's also an Armenian citizen but I mean we we put Kirk Kakoran on a pedestal for the right reasons and Salvapetan deserves an equal if not larger pedestal because some Garrapetan's contributions have been significantly more I would say or maybe even equivalent let's say okay let's let's agree it's equivalent and uh all the projects that Islamic has done in Arts in various regions in Armenia have um I say I you know before he was essentially pulled into politics um he was doing it out of the goodness of his heart I believe so you know I have I have um um you I don't know about his political cap capabilities but it seems like Pashian is leaving no choice but for these um you know very powerful for people to go into politics to have some way to counter him.

[00:33:26]>> Hovi, we like to talk about mostly news and things like that. So that doesn't mean that we should forget about the fact that there have been Armenian prisoners both in Armenia and Baku for weeks and months and years at this point. And one of them, of course, is Archbishop Bakrat Galstan, who was suddenly released from pre-detention jail to under house arrest. And that happened on June 4th after 344 days in pre-trial detention.

[00:34:00]He was released to house arrest. Well, we thought that was a little bit out of the blue, but okay, at least Galstan can sleep in his own bed. Uh he was charged with terrorism and other ridiculous allegations following his peaceful movement to protest the un unilateral territorial concessions that were going on at the time in Tavush. If you recall, this was a couple of years ago in 2024, the holy movement that he led um on foot walking over to Yervan, which is not very different from what Pashinan tried to do in 2018, walking from Gumri to Yeravan. But of course, because this time it was Galthanian doing that. He was charged with terrorism, thrown in jail. There was no trial. There were not even charges that were really pressed.

[00:34:48]There were just allegations that just lingered for uh 344 days and then he's now released under house arrest which doesn't mean that the charges are gone.

[00:34:56]It's just basically this uh sword of damocles over his head. So he cannot do um anything >> and they're very clever because you know 344 days is is is is really interesting right because I think there is this magic number where you know pre-trial detention cannot be if if it's anything longer than a year I think that uh it goes into some statistics that are you know if you have to hold someone in pre-trial detention for a year and there's so many people in Armenia who are under that uh condition >> basically yeah um you know what does it say about your country especially you know we'll have a talk about this but Armenia is experiencing I think its own version of the red terrors uh that happened in the after the bolevik revolution in the early days of the USSR and yes I mean there were executions back then but short of executions is doing everything possible to people put people behind bars and now they're doing it in smart way. They're putting pre-trial detention, you know, we're going to try you for five years and then during that fiveyear trial, we might put you in pre-trial detention for a few times, you know, and release you again.

[00:36:09]>> So, all they have to do is renew it every two months because that's the maximum pre-detention period, but they can renew it. And you know that the courts are packed with judges who are complete cronies of this government. So every two months they go through some paperwork and uh they renew and the guy's been in there for 10 months.

[00:36:28]Anyway, the point the point I want to make he was released at the start of June in the middle of May the UN office of the high commissioner for human rights uh the the OHCR I think that's if I have it right informed Pinian's office that the terrorism charges were not consistent with Armenia's international HR obligations. this would have been a major problem for them. It still is a major problem for them. Uh but we're guessing that as a response uh to to this uh notification, they decided a couple weeks later to move him from uh jail to house arrest. So they sort of commuted his uh sentence to to to become house arrest.

[00:37:09]>> Yeah. I mean there have been instances where they have done that but then they found oh we we found new evidence and then they get them back in pre-trial detention. So Pretty amazing that Europe, which is the the backbone of this Pinan government, comes back and says what you're doing is not consistent with democracy and your uh obligations.

[00:37:31]>> It's not it's not Europe, it's the UN.

[00:37:33]But uh do you remember what European embassies and what the US embassy said the statements they made in July of 2024 when Baghdad Kalan was leading his protests and the government used like they used these unapproved stun grenades that actually uh resulted in people losing limbs and what did the US embassy say? What did European U ambassadors or European officers say?

[00:38:02]They said we advise all sides to uh you know avoid escalation and some I think it was the US embassy that even criticized the opposition for using violent tactics. So it is very difficult because these are real lives that are being ruined. These are real livelihoods that are being destroyed. families that are losing their um you know heads of household. And we want to mention uh we talked about this last week, but Agnaz Manukan, a mother of an underage child.

[00:38:36]I believe she has um more than more than one child, but she was put in uh pre-trial detent detention for high treason and espionage. Look, I'm going to bet that none of these cases eventually will lead in any guilty verdict. And if they do, they'll be overturned by the, you know, international courts. But that is the tactic of the Pashian regime, which seems to suit perfectly the Europeans because they need Armenia subdued and uh tamed. Armenian opposition.

[00:39:09]>> This is their way to remove uh opposition leaders from the streets from freedom so that they cannot lead a true opposition. They just basic this is basically their way to deflate any kind of an opposition >> can mobilize anyone who can mobilize opposition. Um look I mean I I have had the pleasure of meeting Abet and we've had the pleasure of interviewing him on our podcast um during the protest I believe in 2022.

[00:39:40]Um I mean he looking at his education credentials, looking at his business credentials, exemplary human being in my opinion and he was arrested in June uh and accused of inciting foreign officials to ensure that the opposition wins.

[00:40:01]Inciting. What does incitement mean when you have the evidence of you know JD Vance uh of Kayakalas of all the European bureaucrats >> uh parading in Yervan uh singing Kumbaya with Pashinan and uh >> and endorsing him as a prime minister >> somehow that >> and here they're accusing one guy who he met in the Russian embassy.

[00:40:30]>> Yes. Yeah. So foreign by foreign the only foreign to Armenian to Pashian is is Russian. So so Macron is not foreign.

[00:40:38]JD Vance or you know uh they're they're they're ours but Russian Russians are foreign. Anyway, >> you know I I have to add one more thing.

[00:40:47]They they accuse them uh of uh inciting or soliciting support for the opposition uh therefore bringing in foreign interference etc. So Avid Chalabian I believe he said that they had so he went to the embassy because they had requested an update from the opposition.

[00:41:05]I am willing to bet Hovig that the NSS the investigative committee have everything recorded. If there was anything to it would have been leaked and he would have been uh you know completely incarcerated. But that didn't happen. Just a bunch of allegations uh to to remove the guy from the streets for a few days. And it's completely normal for foreign diplomats to talk to all corners of power in a country. I mean, uh, God knows that all media people, all opposition people in Armenia have been, uh, in discussions with foreign diplomats because foreign diplomats have a right to know and it's a it's a free discussion. So if they're wiretapping these foreign diplomats, then that's also an issue with that that is um you know that goes beyond um just internal affairs of a country.

[00:41:55]>> Hovi uh also in the news this past week was uh Vartan, the mayor of Gumri. He has been in jail for 9 months in pre-trial detention. I call this Pashinian purgatory. basically the way we've talked about it. It should be clear that's that's what it is. And he was moved to a house arrest uh this past week.

[00:42:19]>> And and just like you know just to illustrate what I mean by this game they're playing. We all know Armenian he served I think a year in pre-trial detention for an existing case and suddenly and then they they released him and they put ankle bracelets on him and they let him like go under administrative supervision. Then just after the elections they arrest or just the day of the elections I think or maybe a few days before they arrested him again with new charges. So they can always just throw new charges at you which resets the clock and they can put you in pre-trial detention again. So they can do that until the end of your life. Unfortunately, a lot of this type of news is being drowned out by election related scandals and election related news and general I think I think in the diaspora a lot of apathy about sort of following news in Armenia. This last week Major General David Manukan who incidentally happens to be brother of G Manukan of the highest dashing. uh he was a commander of the Arts Defense Forces and he is now a P uh or or a political prisoner in Baku depending on how you look at it. And he slammed Pashin uh in a letter from jail. He said uh he's being accused of of course um various different things like you know crossing the Azerbajani border without permission uh seizing uh part of the country and things like that. And he basically said if if you agree with the if you don't agree with these accusations in essence he said then I urge you to respond and your silence means that you are complicit with the regime in Bakur. I mean if we've seen many evidences of complicity uh with Pashin so I have uh nothing but agreement with David Manukan and if and also like a month back David Ishkanyan sent a similar message to Pashinan where basically they were told that the Armenian government has disowned you.

[00:44:23]So, um there's there's no reason to believe that the Armenian government is doing anything to advocate for the return of our PS and political prisoners.

[00:44:32]>> And during press conferences every now and then, the media still asks either Pashinan or Mir Zoyan whether um there's any news on that front and there's a whole bunch of platitudes on their part that the Armenian government is diligently working on bringing these prisoners of war back. Nothing is being done. In fact, uh I I can, you know, this is my feeling just uh just me saying it. To me, it's clear as day that Pashan does not want these PWs back. He does not want them released. Period.

[00:45:02]They are very popular leaders in Armenia. They are very popular. There's a huge amount of empathy and they will spell trouble for civil contract uh politically if they are released and they come back to Armenia. and and we cannot exclude the probability that Pashinan and Aliv are definitely on the same wavelength regarding these AR leaders in jail from the very start.

[00:45:27]>> Yeah. All we can say is uh freedom to our political prisoners, NPs, whether they're in Baku or uh the colony of Bakuan today and freedom to Ruben Vartan, freedom to David, freedom to David Manukan, Araan Bakan. We cannot name all of them but uh we um we empathize with their families and we can't wait for the day when they will return and um you know we can only sort of live with that hope and also um carry on their struggle because uh the struggle lives on at least in the little embers right now here and there in our podcast in the opposition but that is the uh you know that is that is the form that the struggle has taken right now.

[00:46:19]>> That's all we have, Hovik. Um, any further comments?

[00:46:23]>> Yeah, I'm looking forward to another week of no news next week in terms of Armenian politics. Uh, that doesn't mean there's a lot there's nothing to talk about, but I have to give you a little bit more credit that yes, I think that in my heart of hearts, I want to I want to see more done by the Armenian opposition. I just uh maybe I'm being too I've been too jaded and I don't know what they could do in this environment.

[00:46:48]But uh let's hope that there is a a sign of a movement picking up whether it's we'll see where it goes. But it's clear that the Armenian opposition right now is biting his time. I I I really believe that. But I think they need to reassure Armenians that they are in control of their plans.

[00:47:07]>> Thank you. That was our weekend review recorded on July 20th. Actually, we're now finishing it and it's July 21st, 2026.

[00:47:17]For more information and all the links, everything we have, we'll put them in the show notes. Podcast.growing.org/ep episode number. I'm >> Asproan and I'm Monayan.

[00:47:30]>> We'll talk to you next week. Bye-bye.

[00:47:32]>> Have a great week. Bye-bye.