Sounds APOCALYPTIC (I know it's now but still) - FIRES, TORNADOES, FLOODING, HEAT

[00:00:00]So, I'm preparing for the live stream today. I'm going, "This feels apocalyptic." I get that it's not. Okay, before you get too crazy in the comments, but check it out. I mean, we've got fires and smoke tomorrow.

[00:00:10]We've got a tornado risk on top of all of this. We're dealing with a lot of extreme heat that's going to start to develop across the central US this week.

[00:00:18]And it's already hot in some areas. And now, we're also dealing with flooding into Texas, flooding into the Southwest.

[00:00:24]I mean, that flooding in Texas was pretty rough yesterday. There's more heavy rain falling today. Uh and then uh heading into the weekend, the heat again is start is going to start to build as this large upper high starts to take shape across the central and southern plains. It's going to stay hot out west.

[00:00:39]A cool shot into the northeast that is actually going to clear some of that smoke out for the next couple of days.

[00:00:44]Once the front moves through, uh we'll actually get some smoke in behind it.

[00:00:48]Not anything like what we're seeing right now with visibilities down to half a mile in some places. Uh and then as we head into next weekend, we're looking really long range. Looks kind of cool around the Great Lakes. Still hot out west. We're going to dig into all of that here in the video today. Let's talk about the severe weather. Let's start with what's happening today, Friday the 17th. Here's where the strongest storms will be in and around the Great Lakes ahead of that system. That cold front that's dropping to the south that could bring some strong storms here. Also across the west into Idaho and Montana, some flooding rains possible here. And then also watch out here into parts of the uh the southern Appalachins into North Georgia all the way north up into Ohio and Indiana. Now here's where things get interesting tomorrow and it'll be interesting to watch how this smoke plays out. I was kind of wondering, you know, you've got the potential for some tornatic thunderstorms tomorrow into parts of the Northeast. Where's the smoke going to be when all this is going on? Let let me show you that in just a second. But here's where the risk area is going to be from the northeast all the way back into parts of Indiana, Illinois, Ohio.

[00:01:49]But the strongest tornado risk is not going to be in these areas. It's going to be well, it will be into parts of northeast Ohio, but it's not going to be back across this area. It's going to be northeast Ohio into northern Pennsylvania and then into New Jersey.

[00:02:01]It does include right around New York City, south along the Jersey Shore towards Cape May, and then back west across Delaware and then again central PA, northern PA, the Poconos's, uh, western New York. So, Rochester back to Buffalo. And hey, listen, even up here into southern Ontario. I think there's a tornado risk here for places like London, up to Hamilton, even Toronto.

[00:02:21]So, some strong thunderstorms possible as we head into the afternoon. And then we're dealing with some smoke out ahead of it. This is interesting because it's going to tell the story of what's happening. Notice how everything is buckling here with our smoke plume.

[00:02:32]Visibilities today will be down to half a mile. I've seen special weather statements out of Michigan. I loved seeing your comments. If you're in these areas, let me know below what what's been looking like where you are. I imagine uh in some cases again a little bit again I hesitate. I know I use the word apocalyptic but you got to think it just it's really wild looking to see this much smoke. Visibility is down to half a mile in some areas but look how the winds here comes the front start to scour out the smoke at least into Michigan into Pennsylvania into New York. Okay. So what we what we've done is we've replaced the air mass. We're bringing a lot of moisture north. We're bringing some unstable air into this region that is scouring out the smoke.

[00:03:12]You can sort of see how that's happening. And here comes your front back in from the west. So, we can visibly see not just with looking at due points and looking at cloud cover. We can literally see the smoke scouring out. And now we've got our front moving through with strong to severe thunderstorms developing out ahead of this. Behind it, there is going to be a little bit of smoke. The thing is there's going to be some rain hopefully into parts of Ontario which would help squaltch some of the smoke, but look, it's back. So once the front moves through, you may start to see a little bit of that light smoke into the air.

[00:03:41]Nothing like what we've seen at least across parts of southern Michigan, central Michigan, down into other parts of Indiana and Illinois. However, it looks like it's going to come back into the UP. Notice this concentration not nearly as rough as what we're seeing today. Let's track these storms as we head through the day today. Again, some stronger storms could pop here across the Ohio Valley all the way down into the south. Some heavy downpours possible with these also into Florida, mostly across the central peninsula. Those are going to work west as we head through the day today. Once we get into tonight, things start to back off. There's that southwesterly flow developing. And here comes your front dropping in from the north. It's going to set the stage for those strong thunderstorms as we head into the afternoon. Now, there could be some prefrontal showers and storms going through the early part of the day, but once we get into the afternoon and evening, once you get that stronger upper level support, those steeper laps rates, that's that temperature drop.

[00:04:33]that starts to develop as you go up in the atmosphere. So, literally some colder air loft and then they'll likely be a bit of a cold pool as these thunderstorms back to the north start to push out some colder air ahead of these thunderstorms. So, I think we start off with the possibility, notice as we head into the afternoon and evening, maybe a few supercells trying to show up here and then into the overnight, this main line starts to drop to the south embedded in. This could also be some tornadoes with some decent wind shear. I think at this point your primary threat would be damaging winds. There could also be some hail in the mix here, too.

[00:05:08]So, let's go back to that day two hail outlook. Looks like it's a little bit further to the south, but there still could be some things happening here. And again, your day two wind outlook. Wind is a it's an issue that I don't want us to overlook just because we know the tornado risk is here. But those damaging winds, even if you don't get a quick spin up, uh could be could be a problem with these storms as they work off to the south. Heading into late Saturday night into Sunday, your front drop south, showers moving through New York, back to DC, Baltimore. Notice this is really weakening through the overnight hours and that's expected. That's the end of the HR's time frame. Hot across parts of eastern North and South Carolina heading into Saturday again.

[00:05:45]Some cooler air working in. There it comes. All right, by the time we get into Sunday, we're back up into the 60s and even some 50s. I was looking at some of the forecast uh numbers up for places like Mount Washington. Highs will be barely getting out of the 40s up there at over 6,000 ft into New Hampshire in the presidential range. Overnight lows getting cool. And here comes the heat developing. My gosh, it's going to get hot back across the southern plains. And then uh more on that in just a second.

[00:06:12]and also even further east along the Mississippi River Valley into Arkansas, Missouri, Mississippi, Louisiana, you know, even here into the east where we're seeing some cloud cover. Don't get me wrong, it's still going to stay hot.

[00:06:24]It's just not going to be as brutally hot as your neighbors to the west. And some of the modeling hinting at by the time we get into next weekend, there could be another decent push of cool air out of the northwest. So, that keeps things relatively cool for the east.

[00:06:41]Horrible scenes coming out of Texas.

[00:06:44]More rain today. You know, you hate to see this, right? Flood watches out for this region again through today. This upper low uh still spinning across this region. Monsoon showers going back to the west. I think tomorrow there's still a chance of some rain across this area, but it starts to weaken some as we start to develop that upper level ridge and that's going to start to build the heat across this region. highs today, hot across South Dakota into the Badlands up towards Pierre into the triple digits.

[00:07:14]And then heading into tomorrow, we start to see that heat expand into other areas. So now we're looking into the south, we're starting to see your temperatures rise as we get a little more sunshine into East Texas, also again into Arkansas, into Louisiana, Missouri, Oklahoma, Kansas, Nebraska.

[00:07:30]It's starting to get really warm across this region. And this is nothing. This is the the pre-show, I guess, as we we head into Monday. We really start to feel that heat into the triple digits now for a lot of areas. Okay, you can sort of see how that is starting to expand. Notice the pink really starting to show up. Overnight lows, I'm going to slow this down. Look at these lows here into Kansas where we're just baking the ground. Also into Oklahoma. I wonder about the heat island effect into St. Louis, Kansas City, right? We may not drop out of the low to mid80s. All right. So, I'm I'm pushing this forward in time into those early morning hours.

[00:08:04]Gosh, that's brutal. And then highs a little bit cooler to the north as we start to see our area of high pressure aloft start to sag just a little bit to the south with most of your compressional warming happening across the Red River Valley north through all of Oklahoma. So, Tulsa all the way up into Kansas. It's hot. And then into next week, I mean, just get ready. I know we're used to the heat in Texas, but we're getting a bit of a break right now, but it's going to roar back heading into next week. And some of these model numbers, I know we're really far out and these models are sometimes they get a little extreme, but the thing that I'm watching is how the heat really doesn't go anywhere, right? It's really staying and it's being concentrated across the central US. Problems across the southwest with more flooding possible today into Arizona. You know, looking at some of these things really from Winslow up in elevation up to Flagstaff and then down toward Williams and you go west on I40, even back towards Vegas, there could be a few showers this afternoon and some thunderstorms with some downpours. And then down to Phoenix and Tucson, we could see some showers along this region and up into southern parts of Utah. Even up to Salt Lake City, a chance of showers and thunderstorms today. That moisture not moving too far west, right back into western Nevada, into California. It's going to be baking across Southern California, by the way.

[00:09:16]Get away from the ocean. Triple digits expected in inland areas up and down the central valley. It's going to be hot even up here into eastern Washington and Oregon and Idaho. Really hot temperatures as we head through the weekend and then into Saturday. There's your showers and thunderstorms continuing across the west. Temperatures today as we head into the afternoon are going to really skyrocket especially for places like the Southern California valleys along the Colorado River Valley.

[00:09:43]It's it's going to be really hot, especially into the lower elevations here into Southern California, uh Arizona. A little more cloud cover that might keep your temperatures capped somewhat into Arizona, New Mexico, and the four corner states up into Colorado, but the heat is going to overall the trend. It will stick around as we head through the weekend into next week. And it is absolutely brutally hot across this region. Widening things out, let's take a look at where the rain's going to be over the next couple of days beyond Saturday into Sunday. We talked about Saturday's showers and storms and those severe weather uh risk here into the northeast as your front drops to the south. Hurricane out in the Pacific headed northeast. The good news is this moisture isn't going to take a beline and head straight towards the southwest, which you know, I mean, I get it.

[00:10:29]Monsoon flow is good. We get moisture, but a hurricane coming into the southwest always bad news with that much rain falling. Heading into Monday, again, drying out across the southern plains and the central plains as high pressure, the loft starts to really take shape and just set up shop here. And the westerlys are really strong across the northern US as we continue to see round after round of trough in the upper levels. And that just brings some cooler air in from the north and more rain headed this way along the our front toward the east coast, keeping the showers around. Once the front moves through though, it cools off. Your front likely stalls across the south. And then the question always becomes, do you get some kind of tropical development? I know we're looking really long range here. In the short term, it doesn't look like it with this first front. I mean, that's something that the National Hurricane Center was watching. And then as we head into, uh, next week, really far out. I know we're getting pretty far, but uh, yeah, the overall trend in my mind is going to be with this type of pattern, right? Heat here, little dry, cooler areas into the Northeast. Speaking of heat, I went to Death Valley recently, just this week.

[00:11:35]It was so hot. Crazy hot. 121 degrees.

[00:11:39]I'm thinking about other videos, too.

[00:11:40]Some of you leaving me comments below.

[00:11:42]It's going to be on the screen right here. But where is a good spot? Where else do you think I should go? Where should we do some educational videos?

[00:11:48]What's a special place? I've got a couple of ideas in mind. Like to hear from you below. Love hearing from you guys always. See you next time.