Political Earthquake: Will Ukraine's Momentum Survive the Palace Drama?

[00:00:00]Ukraine's domestic political drama continues, now with the dismissal of the head of the military, Oleksandr Syrskyi.

[00:00:08]It puts us in a weird position where we spend so much time discussing palace intrigue over in the Kremlin, and so much time discussing battlefield strategy in Ukraine. Yet, now we are forced to talk about the inner workings of what happens in Kyiv.

[00:00:25]Moreover, given what has happened recently along the line of control, one might wonder whether partisanship could sink Ukraine's military chances.

[00:00:34]Well, pick up the phone because it is time for some answers on today's edition of the Geopolitics Helpline.

[00:00:41]With all of the drama between Ukraine's Ministry of Defense and the military, will Ukraine lose the momentum that it has gained over the last 4 months?

[00:00:50]My short answer is no. Simultaneously though, you do not win wars based on momentum, and there are plenty of red flags on how Ukraine will create additional momentum.

[00:01:01]Plus, a bunch of question marks remain regarding the military's perspective on how to win the war.

[00:01:07]To catch everyone up to speed, about a week ago, reports indicated that Syrskyi and the then Minister of Defense, Mykhailo Fedorov, had irreconcilable differences on how to allocate Ukraine's limited resources.

[00:01:21]Fedorov wanted a more tech-centric approach, whereas Syrskyi believed that too much money was being shifted away from recruitment incentives and maintaining manpower.

[00:01:31]Zelenskyy had to choose between the two, and last week, he went with the longer-serving Syrskyi.

[00:01:37]Or at least he tried to.

[00:01:40]This move proved to be an incredibly unpopular decision within Ukraine.

[00:01:45]Fedorov had become the most trusted national politician in the country, primarily as the architect of Ukraine's counter-logistics campaign along the southern front.

[00:01:55]For the past handful of days, protesters have been on the streets in every major Ukrainian city demanding to bring Fedorov back.

[00:02:02]Well, it looks like the protesters have successfully convinced Zelenskyy that he made the wrong move.

[00:02:08]Yesterday, he sacked Syrskyi, which was part of the protesters' demands.

[00:02:13]Thus, in the middle of Ukraine's most successful period in 3 years, we are in the midst of high palace drama.

[00:02:21]For comparison, this would be like if Trump oversaw a dispute between Secretary of Pentagon head Pete Hegseth and the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Dan Cain. He then fired Hegseth.

[00:02:33]Everyone from New York to Los Angeles started protesting to reinstall Hegseth.

[00:02:37]I understand this part of the analogy starts to become unrealistic. And anyway, facing those protests, Trump fires Cain. The big difference, of course, is that the United States is not in an existential war.

[00:02:50]Instead, it is in the midst of a non-ceasefire, part of a ceasefire that ended a while ago. I don't really know what I'm saying here. I am just filling in words because none of this makes sense.

[00:03:01]But whatever is happening in Iran, it is more about gas prices and less about existence.

[00:03:06]Ukraine, in contrast, is in the battle for its life.

[00:03:10]And so, you have the viewers' question about whether this will have a practical effect on the current battlefield situation.

[00:03:17]As I said at the top, the short answer is no, but that is misleading.

[00:03:21]If we focus exclusively on Ukraine's current momentum, none of this should be a big deal.

[00:03:27]Fedorov was the architect of the counter-logistics campaign, yes, but continued success there does not require his direct oversight of the operation. The chain of command understands what is going on and can continue it without issue.

[00:03:42]The problem, of course, is that you do not win wars based on momentum. The battlefield constantly evolves, and so your momentum will naturally fall apart for reasons unrelated to the current political drama.

[00:03:55]Fedorov showed a knack for innovation.

[00:03:58]That is what you need to stay on top of the shifting sands.

[00:04:01]Thus, imagine that you remove the lateral thinking.

[00:04:04]Then fast forward 6 months from now and suddenly Ukraine looks like it has no idea what it is doing.

[00:04:11]The other major red flag here is Ukraine's concern about a potential Russian mobilization in 2 months.

[00:04:18]My plan was to have a feature on that on the main channel tomorrow, specifically discussing how credible the suggestion is.

[00:04:26]For now, suffice it to say that Ukraine wants to signal that it is likely and expanding frontline recruitment is the strategy to counteract it.

[00:04:35]Indeed, Syrskyi wanted to place specific emphasis on recruitment rates.

[00:04:39]This, combined with his reputation for ordering high-cost military maneuvers, is what made him unpopular despite his successes first in the defense of Kyiv and then later as the architect of the Kharkiv counteroffensive.

[00:04:54]Meanwhile, Syrskyi's successor, General Mykhailo Zabrodskyi, is a Fedorov of ally.

[00:05:00]Consequently, we might expect Ukraine's armed forces to adopt Fedorov's approach even if, as of now, Fedorov has not been restored to his previous position.

[00:05:10]For the time being, I think it is best that we put a bookmark in this chapter and revisit it in a few weeks to a couple of months to observe what Ukraine actually does.

[00:05:19]Never mind whether Russia mobilizes 500,000 men.

[00:05:23]Where I suspect this spells greater trouble is in the political realm and I do not mean that in the straightforward way.

[00:05:31]We must wonder whether Zelenskyy saw a political threat in Fedorov. He dismissed Fedorov and then had to backtrack to some degree because of the popular reaction to the situation.

[00:05:42]The meta problem arises because we do not even know whether that narrative is true.

[00:05:47]This could have been a purely military-based decision that the public then vetoed.

[00:05:52]The meta problem is that it has become clear that the Zelensky administration does not have a good read on public sentiment and cannot craft its military or political strategy around those constraints.

[00:06:04]Indeed, this marks the second time that Zelensky has made a major decision.

[00:06:09]Protesters braved Russian bombs to show their displeasure, and then Zelensky had to move in a different direction.

[00:06:16]If you think about this as domestic political bargaining, both of these processes were costly and resulted in an outcome that could have been implemented without having to go through those expenses.

[00:06:27]What we have here is bargaining failure due to asymmetric information.

[00:06:32]Now, I know that we make fun of Russia for having so badly miscalculated Ukraine's disposition on the eve of the invasion.

[00:06:39]But if Ukraine's own presidential administration cannot find the pulse of the Ukrainian public, how is someone in Moscow supposed to?

[00:06:48]Given Russia's continued uncertainty along those lines, watching this political scandal unfold will entrench Russian beliefs that Ukraine is destined to eventually fall apart.

[00:06:58]Whether that is true or not matters, of course, but Russia's perception thereof may be equally important if you are trying to negotiate a settlement.

[00:07:07]On the flip side, the discussions I see regarding the situation also show a significant disconnect between the internet hive mind and what is reasonable to expect on the ground.

[00:07:17]I must say, it is interesting to see so many people with such strong opinions about Defense Minister Fedorov, yet spell it Fedorov with two e's.

[00:07:27]That is not his name. Fedorov means son of Fedor, spelled f e d o r, or Fyodor if you wanted to translate the name to English.

[00:07:36]Those of you who enjoy combat sports can commit this to memory thanks to Russian legend Fedor Emelianenko, who is one of the greatest mixed martial artist of all time, and also confusingly born in Luhansk.

[00:07:48]Please do not confuse him with other Russian martial arts legend Steven Seagal.

[00:07:53]The other disconnect is in believing that Syrsky was retreating Ukrainian men for no purpose, whereas a better managed war would result in a total Ukrainian victory.

[00:08:02]Only a couple of weeks ago, Valerii Zaluzhnyi, the man whom Zelenskyy replaced during a different political scandal, wrote an op-ed chastising the public for celebrating the apparent end of Russia, and noting that even the somewhat stable front lines delicately depend on continued Western support.

[00:08:20]It seems that he may be just as frustrated with the "Putin is done" crowd as I am.

[00:08:27]Meanwhile, William is done with this video.

[00:08:31]If you want to keep watching though, check out the archive of the Geopolitics Helpline.

[00:08:35]You can click here to see all the past videos.

[00:08:38]And if you enjoyed today's video, then please like, share, and subscribe, and I will see you tomorrow.

[00:08:45]Take care.