🚨 Elon Just Laid Out The Real Plan For SpaceX

[00:00:00]So, the countdown has begun, folks.

[00:00:01]SpaceX is set to list and Elon has been super active and rightly so. JP Diamond from JP Morgan just interviewed Elon.

[00:00:10]And there's a lot there that I'm hoping to digest with the help of Larry Goldberg. Larry's a serial entrepreneur, co-inventor, and author and managing partner at Lumisenti. Welcome, Larry.

[00:00:22]Great to have you back. So much to talk about.

[00:00:24]>> Great to be here. Great to be here.

[00:00:26]>> Exciting.

[00:00:27]>> Very good. These are good times. Yeah.

[00:00:29]Good time.

[00:00:30]>> Yeah, what a time to be alive. But first, before we begin, time for a surprise. So, the New York Times and in particular the New York Times uh reporter Shira Franle reached out to me um a few days back and she had seen one of my live streams uh for IF12 on the first window when it unfortunately didn't take off and she saw I imagine some of our chats on over the horizon on YouTube. Larry and she reached out asking if I was willing to comment um on the SpaceX IPO and specifically the excitement around it and how it's being viewed around the world. And I was really uh it was a I I'm really pleasantly surprised um to see the New York Times give such a positive uh review of the IPO and everything happening and quite a realistic reflection of sentiment around the world uh both from retail as well as companies that stand to benefit.

[00:01:46]companies like uh I believe she interviewed Va Space as well uh for this story. So a very heartening to see um a a great take a great reflection of sentiment around the IPO and uh she even linked to one of our chats on uh on Over the Horizon. So that was super. So I'm I'm really grateful for that. Um but yeah.

[00:02:12]Yeah, you know, um the level of innocence amongst these citizens just boggles my mind. I mean, she starts by saying that thousands turned up to South Padre Island compared to hundreds in the past. Well, she's completely wrong. The crowd at St. at at u in the whole of the the Brownsville area was not as large as it's been in the past. So, um you know, I it it's fantastic to see positive reporting for once from the New York Times on any Elon activity. Uh, and it's nice that they linked to our um podcast and it's nice that she reported well.

[00:03:03]So, I don't want to detract too much from from her.

[00:03:07]>> Um, but yeah, if people don't get excited about this, then what can they get excited about? I mean really >> the way I look at this is it's a reflection of just how much positive excitement uh curiousness you know is is being built around this IPO because of what it really represents and from my interaction with her during the interview I was it was nice to hear her own observations about the sort of feedback that she's been getting after speaking to so many people uh for the interview and that it has all been really positive.

[00:03:50]Everybody's excited understandably so, but it's not just um you know people companies people who work at companies in the new space economy like rather space and others but uh also the average person on the street you know and there's a lot of support and I had shared with her as well that there's so much of support around um not just from the space nerds but from the entire Tesla community and people in general for this great idea and this great promise of face and um it was it was really heartening to to hear her recognize that and uh and echo it in so many ways.

[00:04:29]>> Yeah.

[00:04:29]>> Yeah. I I don't take calls from the press anymore. I don't take calls from anybody online that I don't know because um as you say in the past there's been these really negative you know broadcast and so on and so it's surprised to see New York Times talking you know speaking so well about the events around the SpaceX um IPO because I will tell you that you know in the past New York Times have not been you as friendly with Elon. And talking of which, I mean, you saw the interview between JP Morgan Chase and Elon. I mean, my goodness me, that was uh stunning in terms of, you know, the praise that Jaime Diamond heaped upon Elon because, you know, JP Morgan hasn't always been that friendly with >> I know >> with Elon's interests.

[00:05:29]>> Yeah. And May was there as well, Elon's mom. Um, so I think they they they went the extra mile >> to make amends.

[00:05:37]>> Yeah, >> that was nice to see.

[00:05:39]>> Look, they're the lead underwriter uh in this uh or bookmaker I should call it um in this IPO. Um they are the most powerful financial uh body. I mean full disclosure they're cl they were clients of mine in my last company very important. They were our largest client and and we were, you know, headline vendor to them. Um, I've been in Jamie Diamond's office before. It's a very [laughter] impressive place. The boardroom attached to his office, not him, not his office. Um and uh you know I can imagine um how I look it's a really good thing to have an organization like JP Morgan behind SpaceX because talk about financial backs stop there it is and uh the fact that Jamie does recognize Elon for whom he is is really a good thing.

[00:06:40]Maybe this is a turnaround. If we look at New York Times and you know JP Morgan talking highly about Elon, I must say Elon really came over well in this interview. He did a really good job.

[00:06:55]>> Yeah. And you know what really it was so funny to watch Elon selfcorrect, autocorrect. He tends to go off onto tangents.

[00:07:04]>> Yeah. Yeah. And then he was like, "Oh, why am I talking about, you know, solar and moon and Mars and let's talk about the IPO?" So, it was funny to to see him do that. Yeah.

[00:07:16]>> So, uh Okay. So, what I had planned was if we could go uh step by step through this interview uh and kind of pause. Uh but before that, um I think I'd like your thoughts on the IPO documents.

[00:07:30]We've had the S1A amended uh document filed. There's some very interesting takeaways. Um SpaceX put out a 17minute 17 odd minute video with the CFO talking about it. By the way, the guy's been with with SpaceX from the start, right?

[00:07:48]So that was really impressive. Um what do you make of everything that we've learned from the IPO documents and how are you viewing it going into the IPO?

[00:08:01]There were very few surprises for me in the documents. Most of what we read there I have learned in my travels and in my conversations with people at SpaceX and in my observation of SpaceX.

[00:08:19]Um you know this is the most extraordinary organization on earth.

[00:08:27]The level of execution that they have demonstrated over the last 20 years is nothing short of miraculous.

[00:08:38]I mean they put to shame all the topline aerospace um contractors.

[00:08:49]they put to shame even the other topline aerospace uh venture v venture firms.

[00:08:58]I think that um from an execution point of view the you know in an area of extreme challenge I mean there's no greater challenge than space no greater challenge it is the most unforgiving >> yes >> you know space that you could imagine in every respect the earth does not give up lightly the gravity well that we have here makes space incredibly difficult. You know, we only get to space by the absolute thinnest margin.

[00:09:37]In fact, you know, for for our entire uh the entire human existence, air was difficult. Just getting flight was difficult. But space was, you know, deemed impossible for all this time. and uh and to execute with as pre the precision that SpaceX has executed really speaks about every single employee there and it's an extraordinary group of people you know Gwyn Shotwell who is the CEO doesn't get very much prime focus in these do in this these documents or in public statements but she is a force of nature an absolute force of nature and she has been Elon's best partner in all of his activities forever.

[00:10:38]I don't think there's anybody who sustained a relationship with Elon as long as Gwyn has. Um, and through many crises and many difficulties, she's been steadfast.

[00:10:54]So I I would say that one of my biggest surprises is how little visibility we have of Gwyn. Um you know the document really speaks you know and and the CFO is amazing. I mean he he is really an extraordinary um execution. He's executed extraordinarily well and you know the there's so much there if you've ever spent time in Starbase and I've watched Starbase from the time it was just a little village and a huge dump of sand >> to where it is today which is a huge city with a massive manufacturing plant with a massive two massive uh facilities one at Massiey's one in the launch area and and this gigantic factory whose size is really hard to describe. When when you take all of that and that that's happened in the time frame and what they've achieved off Earth as well as on Earth, then you have to say this is the most remarkable organization possibly in human history >> and it's just getting started.

[00:12:11]>> Well, that's the point. I mean the level of ambition here is staggering. But you know if you had told me 20 years ago when I started reading 20 more than 20 years ago when I started reading this crazy South African's blog about this rocket he was building and then I went into his background and I first heard him speak in the stutter this kind of strange kind of stuttery you know hesitant voice. I thought this this is not an intelligent guy. This what is he talking about? And then you know I began to read his blogs and I mean he writes so well. It's extraordinary. People don't realize just how excellently write you know he he wrote that first you know the first plan and it was all his own writing. the blogs that he wrote, very few people have got to read those but um and and that's how I started following him and then of course he got involved with Tesla shortly after that and used to write blogs on Tesla. I mean, one of the greatest blogs I've ever read is his blog on breaking down the bill of materials of the first Tesla when he discovered just how overbudget they were and how crazy they were. And that's why he took over the company, took over running the company. So, yeah, you can tell I'm a little bit of a fan.

[00:13:48]And you may tell everything, but but my fandom arises not from just simply reading and listening to Elon.

[00:13:58]It's seeing him put into practice what he preaches. Has he made mistakes? Cope his mistakes. Um, has he done incredible things? Yes, he's done incredible things. Will he make mistakes in the future? Yes, of course he will. I hope he does. because if he doesn't, he's just not, you know, he's just not pushing far enough. But, um, I have very high faith that he's going to achieve all that he set out to do. Look, I'm a student, as I've often said on your program, of Edison.

[00:14:36]Um, what Elon is is not another Edison.

[00:14:40]He is so many steps above what Edison was intellectually and uh in terms of practical skills and in terms of his business skills. Um but he is as transformative to our age as Edison was to the late 19th century. And what Edison did in the late 19th century, I mean the only thing he didn't invent that was of moment to us was the internal combustion engine. Other than that, and that was important, of course, other than that, he pretty much invented our lives in the 20th century.

[00:15:22]>> Yeah.

[00:15:23]>> Now, as we >> Elon made that redundant as well. Now, >> he did. He did. It's true. It's true.

[00:15:29]But here and and and Edison tried to make it redundant. Edison really he had his instinct was that the battery was the solution and he invented uh the modern battery uh that is today used in you know everything from submarines to all industrial equipment.

[00:15:48]Well, until the advent of the modern um solid state, the the modern um uh lithium [snorts] battery. But but you know, he he had the instinct that the internal combustion engine wasn't the right solution. But anyway, the point is he transformed our cent the 20th century and Elon is transforming the 21st century. And that's where the two really, you know, can be measured together. So, yeah, I'm a fan. Uh I think that SpaceX and Tesla, Neurolink, uh the Boring Company, I think these are evidence of this incredible mind and uh I think that the SpaceX company is going to do extraordinarily well. and you know I'm I'm very heavily invested in it. Um so there you are >> indeed and it's it is so heartening to see each of the verticals that SpaceX has. So we've talked about Tesla in the past has been a as a collection of individual companies within itself. Right?

[00:17:06]When you look at SpaceX and the way it's evolving now after SpaceX AI, um the deal with anthropic um all of that it's just it's to me it seems like it's Tesla on steroids. The number of verticals >> I wouldn't I wouldn't put it that way. I would say that it is highly complimentary because if you look at the number of verticals that they have and they've >> they've done some acquisitions in very recent times which Tesla have not done.

[00:17:38]I mean, if you look at Tesla's uh acquisitions, they're very small and they're very focused and they're generally acquires or tech technical or or acquiring technical um or or or um intellectual capital >> intellectual capital.

[00:17:55]>> But SpaceX has done >> two very important acquisitions with a potential third. the first two acquisitions it made is really bringing Tesla bringing Elon companies into SpaceX. But the point I will make is that if you take SpaceX and Tesla and you look across them, they are completely aligned with this plan that has built itself that created itself.

[00:18:26]>> Yeah. from the strands of Elon's activities and and [clears throat] the expansions of these two companies and they're completely complimementaryary.

[00:18:37]>> Yeah. I mean we've we've had so many chats about all of this but Elon himself said >> that the more he looks as the more time passes the more his all his companies naturally seem to be converging >> and and there's a very simple reason and the reason is first principles He's planning from first principles.

[00:18:59]He's driving from you know the laws of physics and mathematics and that is the logic behind what he does. And so naturally these things converge.

[00:19:11]Naturally these things converge and they converge around the notion of energy.

[00:19:16]the cardv you know life springs from energy and that's underlying you know everything that he has done everything that he's put together everything he's planned the one great secret left for him to you know uncover is why we spend so much energy achieving not much more than this tiny little brain in each of us can achieve.

[00:19:52]You know the brain weighs what a couple of pounds.

[00:19:57]It exceeds the capability of multi-tonons of processing power. How, >> you know, how h how how are we able to generate the the tokens to use the new speak uh from this light mass compared to the massive amount of energy required to generate tokens electronically and that you know ultimately we must be driving towards that secret. There I kind of got off the >> I mean you're you're so right because when you look at this convergence and the grand mask economy that is not only terrestrial but off world and interplanetary really it's all about energy tokens and atoms.

[00:20:48]>> But the reason we need all this energy you know just going to first principles is we just haven't figured out how the brain does it.

[00:20:57]>> Yeah. optimization.

[00:20:58]>> How does it accumulate the vast amount of knowledge and achieve the level of you know calculation uh in this very light mass of our brain?

[00:21:13]Um and how are we able to now we do use writing and recording to pass that information on to subsequent generations to give them a starting point and you know and and and to preserve knowledge um which I suppose in a way does require enormous amounts of energy but nonetheless I mean we're able to come up with approximate num approximate values that take a computer, you know, many many kilowatts of energy >> to reproduce. hear him kind of >> well I mean on a philosophical note the more you look at quantum physics the more you become a philosopher and spiritually I think um that's because this our brains our bodies it's just a sleeve for our souls but then we're digressing going on to a different >> we are digressing but I you know I mean I think that uh I think that everything otherworldly is simply that which we cannot understand >> for now >> for now. Yeah, >> for now. [laughter] Anything else that um stood out from you for you from the documents, Larry, that I think uh our audience needs to keep talking about?

[00:22:29]>> Well, you know, we definitely uh did not get any surprises.

[00:22:35]>> Mhm.

[00:22:35]>> Uh we were able to pin down a little bit more accurately the value of this deal with Enthropic.

[00:22:42]Um, you know, um, one of the most interesting points of this whole thing is that Tesla actually has used very has used very little capital to get to profitability in a very difficult market. They're extraordinary profitable in their launch business. They're extraordinarily profitable in their >> SpaceX, not just >> I mean SpaceX. Yes. enormously profitable in their um communication business. Uh it's very very uh promising from the perspective of the data processing business. Look, Elon said, one of the things Elon said in the interview with JP Mo with Jamie Diamond >> was that the communication satellite, the V3 communication satellite, V3 Starlink is much more complex and much more difficult to engineer [snorts] >> than the data centers than than the data satellites. And you know, this is counterintuitive.

[00:23:48]It is >> and certainly counter to everything that's been published in the subject.

[00:23:52]People have pooed data centers in the sky. They said it's impossible.

[00:23:56]Technology is too too difficult blah blah blah. And Elon has dismissed that.

[00:24:00]Well, I'm inclined to uh trust somebody who's a fellow of the Royal Society uh his opinion to the opinion of the opiners in the press.

[00:24:12]>> Yeah. Um and and everything I've read from the true engineers from the engineers in the space indicate to me that Elon is on target. Now there's engineering to be done. The best guess is it's going to be you know 2029 uh 2026 2029 that we actually able to put this in the sky. I I think we're going to get the surprise of our lives. I think we're going to see data satellites being launched within two years from today.

[00:24:49]That's what I think, but I could be wrong.

[00:24:52]>> Yeah. I mean, the pressures on the timelines and all of that will increase once Tesla once SpaceX is a listed company as well. Um, but then that's something that um Elon and his companies thrive on. They thrive under pressure.

[00:25:07]Um, so yeah, but you know, something that really stood out for me from that uh interview, and we'll just get to it in a bit, but I just wanted to highlight it since you um brought it up. Elon said that they'd taped out different chips for these uh communication satellites, and that was really interesting because we'd seen the AI5 tape out. Um that was the last that we saw. uh and there was a big it sparked a big discussion as uh all Elon's uh breaking news does but this was really interesting that they've got multiple chips for the V3 um communication is also direct to device so yeah >> yeah I think I I have to say I believe those chips to be in production I could be wrong um I don't know the timeline that he was referring that he was referencing when he said that they taped out multiple chips. I think what he meant to say, I think what he was implying is that they designed uh multiple chips, custom chips for that uh for the V3. My understanding is that they have V3 satellites that they've built, but I could be wrong on that subject because I I can't actually I haven't done the research to make sure that what I thought was actually existed.

[00:26:37]So, I don't know. Nothing in the in the video that they showed indicates whether in fact the V3s currently exist or not.

[00:26:46]I know that, you know, that they've been launching these these uh satellites that are shaped like the V3 and they don't contain any active devices in them, but um but I I don't know where they are in the production cycle. I can Google that while we're talking. M >> no I mean we can find out but I I thought we should um quickly pivot to this all important interview um of Elon and um let's I I propose we listen to it um Larry and we pause after every u response of Elon and then we can talk about it. So here we go >> uh into the future. Um, so welcome and coming here. Elon, I have 10 questions for you, so I want to make sure I get to each one. Some of them came from folks here. Uh, they're all kind of important.

[00:27:44]Uh, but one just to start is why SpaceX public now? Because you had choices. You didn't have to. Why now?

[00:27:53]>> Yeah. Um, you know, I I've been asked for many years about taking SpaceX public. Um, so it's probably been, I don't know, uh, almost 10 years that people have been been at suggesting to me that I should take SpaceX public. Um, you know, we've been we've been positive cash flow for for quite a long time. I think since since around 2014, 2015 um, and we've been self-unding, in fact, uh, in our sort of private uh, equity rounds, they actually have not been fundraising rounds. They've been liquidity rounds for investors. um an employee because we give everyone at the company stock. Um and SpaceX has actually bought back stock in most of our uh sort of funding events. So um um what's different about now is that uh uh well it's it's a number of things but um we we are embarking on a significant um growth phase like a capital growth phase where we're um we are going to put uh in in orbit probably a 100,000 satellites or probably over 100,000 satellites just for communications. Um and these will be of the the the version three and beyond uh versus version two and version one that are currently in in in orbit. Version version three is u depending on how you count it 10 to 20 times more capable than the version two satellite. Um and there were three chips that the SpaceX chip design team taped out that are specific to this that are far beyond state-of-the-art. um which means it's it's it's it's 100 times more bandwidth than than the SpaceX uh Starlink system currently offers. Um and also half the latency because the altitude will be um about half [clears throat] altitude. So um I I think it will actually be the highest bandwidth uh lowest latency means of communicating. Um and the future with AI and and robots is is actually going to require a lot more bandwidth than we currently use. Um because you can imagine like what's the bandwidth of a human? It's u peak bandwidth of a human is a few hundred bits per second but but bandwidth of a computer can be a trillion bits a second. So the the appetite for bandwidth of AI compute uh AI and robots is is going to be enormous. Um and and then we're also doing the uh AI data centers and space which is um another massive capital endeavor. Um but I think I think it'll be the the primary means of by which uh AI can be expanded. Um it's it's it's increasingly difficult to build uh power plants on the ground. Um there are very few people who want a power plant in their backyard. Um so if we wanted to say double the electricity um usage of the United States which is on average about 500 gawatts um we um would have to build you know about twice as many power plants which I don't think people are well most communities are not super excited about that um but but but actually if we go to space we can go far beyond the electricity generation of earth um in fact this is going to sound kind of crazy, but uh you you could you could actually increase uh honest uh energy by a factor of a million and still be using much less than a millionth of the sun's energy.

[00:31:27]So current uh human civilization uses much less than a trillionth of the sun's energy output, which is kind of humbling to think about. We're really a tiny when you see the true size of Earth relative to the sun. We're a tiny dust mode in a in a vast darkness and the sun is enormous. Sun is 99.8% of all mass in the solar system and most of the remaining 2% is Jupiter. Um so um you know sometimes people ask me and I'm sort of maybe going a little wide ranging in this answer but [laughter] because they just asked me why you public now you know I'm like talking about the sun's out you know power output sort of a longwinded answer yeah you know if I was an AI you might tell me to you know okay but also [laughter] but but but it but it is important like some of these things are kind of important because uh people sometimes wonder what's the future of energy generation. Um, and I can I can say that it is absolutely solar power or maybe a better word for solar power is uh star power. It's it's the power of a star.

[00:32:35]Um, and the the crazy thing is that if you if you burnt all mass in the solar system that was not the sun, the amount of energy produced by the sun would still round up to 100%. Because the sun is 99.8% 8% of the mass of the solar system. Even if you teleported two more Jupiters from another somehow teleported two more Jupiters from another solar system and burnt them too, the sun would round up to 100%. It's so it's very much the sun.

[00:33:02]Um, and you can, like I said, you could scale to a million times Earth's economy in space, uh, in terms of harness power, which is a good proxy for economic output. Um, and still be much less than a millionth of the sun's energy, which is an humbling really to think about how tiny we are. Um, and this is just one star among many. So I I guess the the TLDDR it would be um we're embarking on a massive new growth phase and uh we need capital for that.

[00:33:37]>> Okay.

[00:33:42]So Elon being Elon he tends to go off track. um he said a lot about AI data centers, about the problem with energy generation, and of course we've discussed all of that on the podcast uh here in the past, but it's important to for him to reiterate and underscore underline just how challenging it is.

[00:34:03]And we had the was it the CTO uh of of Meta that or was it of of OpenAI that recently um was on the all-in uh event.

[00:34:17]CF CFO yeah of open AI >> of open AI and she said you know everybody's short on compute and then Jason said oh well Elon's got some but I think what's really stood out to me was this new bit of insight something that you probably already knew as a long-term SpaceX shareholder but people don't realize that SpaceX has been bet positive for a long time and there are a lot of criticism and FUD over SpaceX's investments in Q1 this year again fold into that FUD and people don't realize why uh all of this is happening.

[00:35:05]Yeah, he you know Elon is a long-term player and his critics are short-term uh you know event horizons. they they see only his last couple of weeks or months or his last statement uh or his last Nazi salute you know that kind of I mean people don't understand the journey that he has been on I tried to describe his early years and you know and and and tried to describe earlier just what he has been through in terms of where he's going and the interesting thing is he always makes these gigantic plans and and they are like, "No, I don't think you're going to be able to do that. No, I don't think you're going to be able to take people to to you. You're you're not going to be able to launch a rocket to orbit. That's for the big boys. No, you're not really going to be able to take man to space. That's that's really for country. No, you're not really going to be able. And so that it's always you're not going to be able to do that or you know, okay, you've done that, but the next thing is impossible. So, you know, and and the thing about it is he always gives this great detail. You know, he always talks about I'm going to do this because of this, this, this, this, and this. So, it's about time people started paying attention.

[00:36:33]>> Yeah.

[00:36:35]All right, let's carry on.

[00:36:38]>> Okay, number two.

[00:36:40]>> Another thing is the the revenue like I also feel pretty good about like the revenue projections. I mean like [laughter] like before like revenue was a little unstable but now I feel like the revenue is like much more predictable.

[00:36:55]>> Yeah.

[00:36:56]>> Yeah. I learned I always learn listening to you. I guarantee you. So I mean you people hear about multilanetary species travel to space you know one of the most exciting ideas in human history. Can you explain the bridge that you were you speak about I heard you talk about from the earth to the moon to Mars?

[00:37:13]>> Yeah. Um yeah so you don't necessarily have to go through the moon to get to Mars. Um I just think that we can build a self-growing city on the moon faster than we could do so on Mars. And uh and and there's also the potential if you say you want to scale far beyond um what what you can do from Earth is is that because the moon has no atmosphere and and about 16th Earth's gravity, you can use um an electromagnetic accelerator, a rail gun or mass driver. Basically, you don't need to use rockets to uh to to do AI data centers into deep space from the moon. You can literally just shoot them like a like a rail gun type of thing. Um and and you can manufacture the sol the solar and the radiators, solar power and radiators on the moon from moon materials. Um that would allow scaling um potentially to beyond um a thousand terowatts a year.

[00:38:21]Okay, let me just check what happened there. osphere and and about 16th Earth's gravity. You can use um an electromagnetic accelerator, a rail gun or mass driver.

[00:38:38]Basically, you don't need to use rockets to uh to to do AI data centers into deep space from the moon. You can literally just shoot them like a like a rail gun type of thing. Um and and you can manufacture the sol the solar and the radiators, solar power and radiators on the moon from moon materials. Um that would allow scaling um potentially to beyond um a thousand terowatts a year which is a truly staggering number. Like I think we can do a thousand I think I think we can do probably somewhere around one terowatt per year of of AI space compute from Earth. Uh, but we can do a thousand terowatts or more from the moon. Um, and like I said, we can also make a moon base and and I think it would be pretty pretty cool if you could, you know, vacation on the moon.

[00:39:30]Like that would be the [laughter] most epic vacation, you know. Um, you know, like not everybody wants to go to the moon, but I mean I think a lot of people do. I I think would be pretty pretty amazing to to sort of obviously provided you could do so safely. um and uh you know and come back safely and everything but but I think we can I think that will be possible in the future and and then and then Mars is another step beyond that that's uh Mars is a whole planet um and with gravity much closer to that of Earth's and it has it has a an atmosphere albeit an atmosphere and if you warm up Mars you could one day make Mars like Earth meaning with like liquid oceans and life and where you could walk outside without a space suit type of thing. Um, so Mars is a it I call Mars a fixer upper of a planet, you know, but it's >> [laughter] >> uh it's got a lot of potential, >> you know. Let me uh let me go.

[00:40:23]>> Yeah. So, uh, you know, for for those who've regularly followed, um, Tesla and SpaceX and Elon, a lot of what he said is is familiar, but I I I get that he's at an event like this, he's trying to kind of lay out the grand idea, but I >> I think it's >> Yeah, I think it's fair to say that he's evolved.

[00:40:47]>> You know, two years ago, he was adamant that Mars was the destination, not the moon. I was going for that. Yes.

[00:40:54]>> And that evolution uh has come about for multiple reasons.

[00:41:00]One reason is that the lure of being able to build data centers in the sky uh and the logic that that makes to him of being able to use the energy from the sun gamefully, you know, in a really um valuable way. uh has led to this detour uh to to the moon because the moon you know doesn't have the gravity well the earth has and once you start manufacturing on the moon then you have access much much much simpler access to space certainly dramatically simply if you're not having to put a put a you know fly a man off the moon if you just want to fly equipment off the moon you can just shoot it off the moon rather and even have to use a rocket or propulsion of that nature. So, I think that he's evolved his thinking and it's very healthy. Um, you know, he's not afraid to be he's not afraid to change his mind. Uh, he certainly is not happy to uh have to admit that he's changed his mind, but he's very happy to change his mind. Um, >> but I I I reckon and from a geostrategic point of view, I reckon a couple of things happened that helped change his mind about the moon. Uh, first of all, Trump came in. Um, and then Elon was trying to get Jared uh into the post of the NASA administrator.

[00:42:42]I took a bit of a detour. Um but it was very clear then that there was a shift back towards attention to a to the moon at NASA and that has continued. A B >> but Jared was a driver of this.

[00:42:57]>> Agreed.

[00:42:58]>> Jared was the driver and it just you know I I give kudos to Elon for you know recognizing the point and and working with Jared on that. Um that wasn't his starting point.

[00:43:12]>> Yeah. Yeah. But more importantly, I think from a national strategic interest, American national strategic interest point of view, China's ambitions for the moon just suddenly hit home.

[00:43:25]>> Absolutely.

[00:43:26]>> And and it was very important. And I think not many people realize um and they they don't because they don't zoom out and look at the big picture that this is a space race and America the the only [clears throat] stellar body that China can compete with America in reaching is the moon and it's a land grab. It's the wild wild west. Um, and I think America, the American establishment and of course Elon because SpaceX is so central to everything uh kind of got a wakeup call with China's ambitions.

[00:44:10]I Yeah, I mean I I I recognize all of that. Um I think that you know the focus for Elon though is not that I think he's very happy to play in that in that particular pantomime but I think his focus is much more direct in terms of you know what he can achieve on the moon and what the moon can do for him and how how much of a waste station. It's going to be on the way to to Mars.

[00:44:49]>> To Mars, correct? Yeah. All the stars aligned.

[00:44:54]>> Yep.

[00:44:57]>> All right. Let's carry on.

[00:45:00]>> Number three. But I never ever thought you'd be in the hospitality business.

[00:45:04]>> Yeah.

[00:45:05]>> Um, >> absolutely. I mean, we should have Moon Hotels, don't you think?

[00:45:10]>> Yeah. Musk hotels like >> well it could be other actually it will you think of us more like we're kind of like the Union Pacific you know um you know when they built Union Pacific back in the day people thought they were crazy because like why are you trying to carry all this this all this cargo and people to California no one's there uh but now California is the biggest state in the country >> for not for long but yeah >> yeah no admittedly it's self-defeating yes >> so starship you built it unbelievable ship I think It's already had 12 flights I read. Uh but obviously technical technically it's just hard to do. What were some of the breakthroughs you had that people should know about they they don't know about?

[00:45:53]>> Um well we we our webcasts are very good. So I recommend anyone who wants if they want to learn about Starship uh the SpaceX website or the any of the Starship live casts are great way to learn about it. Um but the the the really the fundamental breakthrough of Starship is that um it will be the first uh orbital rocket that is fully reusable. Um so this might sound like an obvious thing but um because in every other mode of transport whether that's aircraft, ve you know cars, bicycles, horses, you name it, you know it ships these are all we take it for granted that they are reusable. Um, you know, an aircraft journey would be very expensive if you had to throw the plane away every time. And and that's how rockets have been in the past. Um, but it's it's very difficult from a technology standpoint to achieve full reusability for a rocket. We we've got part of the way there with Falcon 9, but we'll get all the way there with Starship. And and once you achieve full reusability, then then it's simply a cost. It's simply the the cost of access to to orbit is just the cost of propellant because now you can reuse all aspects of the vehicle.

[00:47:01]And the propellant we used for Starship is liquid oxygen and liquid liquid methane which is the cheapest propellant you could possibly get. I mean just literally get oxygen from the air and methane from natural gas. Um so the cost of propellant for Starship will be less than the cost of of um jet aviation fuel.

[00:47:24]Um which means that you should be able to actually send um cargo to space for less than the cost of cargo uh on an airplane going on a trans oceanic trip.

[00:47:41]Starlink. Another thing that has been amazing, global communications. We already mentioned Ukraine. Uh you had mentioned to me that V3 would maybe be able to replace some of these cyber cables, which by the way is a huge uh security risk for all of us because several have already been cut in the Baltic Sea. Um so what's the next view for Starlink? You know, both V3 and maybe V4.

[00:48:07]Um yeah, so the V3 satellite is a a gig and you can look it up on the internet.

[00:48:13]Um is, as I said, it's it's 10 to 20 times more capable than than B2. It it's a very big satellite. In fact, it can only be launched on Starship. It's it's so it's too big to be launched on uh any other rocket on Earth. So Starship has a 30 foot diameter uh cargo bay.

[00:48:32]Um and um the uh the B3 satellites are let's see they're about seven meters so about 20 22 or 23 feet um wide so very very big um that like they're the size of a small bus essentially um and they I mean there's a bunch of technical details about you know we have um much bigger phase ray antennas we've got um u we've got more KU ground links. We've got more um of our laser. Our satellites communicate with each other with with lasers that we developed and manufacture. Um so it's got a lot more lasers and more advanced lasers. Um it's also got uh Wband and Eband. I mean these are kind of technical details, but this it's got a lot of um it's it's trans it's it's like a crazy orbiting radio station. Okay.

[00:49:28]And doesn't doesn't a Starship do like 12 of them or 15 at once? 50.

[00:49:34]>> Uh well, it should be able to do 50.

[00:49:37]>> 50.

[00:49:38]>> Yeah. Uh because Starship is Starship B3 is aimed at aiming to do um 100 tons to orbit uh with full reusability. And then Starship V4, we're aiming for over 200 tons uh per per mission.

[00:49:54]>> Yes.

[00:49:54]>> Um and and then being able to launch every hour.

[00:49:57]So um next one's data centers in space.

[00:50:00]You've been talking about that other people have mentioned it but obviously it has different technical capabilities you know it's called >> Okay. So before we go to the data centers in space, I wanted to quickly get your thoughts uh Larry on and we'll we'll run through this because um I know you're getting short on time, but the AI satellites and coming back to the point about the the tape out of the different chips um the complexities of these constellations uh for communications for AI data centers.

[00:50:30]Anything new here that stands out to you or is this just reinforcement of what's already known?

[00:50:38]you know, it's a reinforcement of what's already known, but it got my focus. And um it's hard to actually it's hard to actually fully conceive of the difference between the V1 the the current version which is the V2 Mini um and [clears throat] the V3 satellites because the the difference is so great. And by the way um I was wrong.

[00:51:09]the the the V3 is not in production yet.

[00:51:13]It's still in development. Um but I mean, you know, you're talking about roughly a ton per satellite um versus, you know, a couple hundred kilos of the current version of the satellite. And the difference is it's, as Elon called it, a broadcast station in [laughter] the sky. So, we're going to see this gigantic change. I it it just and you know there must be so much capability in terms of what they can put into that satellite over time. So right now they you know they bundle a particular band uh a particular bandwidth a particular at at a particular uh set of capabilities.

[00:52:01]God knows where they're going to go with that because it's, you know, they can given that satellites uh power availability, given its uh what it carrying capacity is, given its laser link capability. I mean, clearly that satellite's going to be able to do a heck of a lot more than just simply communication.

[00:52:24]So, we'll see. It's pretty exciting.

[00:52:28]>> Yeah. In fact, um he also speaks about um something we touched upon earlier, which is that um the AI data centers in space are not really a difficult task.

[00:52:39]It's going to be uh easier to do than the the the V3 satellites. Um but I think um I a lot of people don't even know that um you they're working on a solar um off-world solar panel production um on on capacity and that they just might be in production by the end of this year for this. So to your point about us possibly seeing launches within the next two years by 2028 a lot of little breadcrumbs of information that uh are coming out.

[00:53:18]>> You mean by 2028 for the data centers?

[00:53:22]>> Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. I think I think it's more than possible we will see in 2028 the first data centers in the sky.

[00:53:31]I mean they have to produce they have to produce the chips that they need but they can adapt there are multiple different chips that can be adapted for testing purposes and they're going to be some breakthroughs between now and then.

[00:53:45]So I think that it's [clears throat] uh right now it's an open book as to what is coming by way of data centers and when. But in the meantime I think we can definitely depend upon Elon to build more data centers on Earth between now and that occasion and I think we're going to see more revenue from data centers on Earth before we see them from the sky. So that's also the challenge right for the entire AI industry globally access to compute access to data centers it's not limited energy is also limited uh especially in America not so much in China >> right >> but yeah I think um which is why SpaceX is going to be more important right um he also talks about um the terapab and America's chip bottleneck so let's quickly listen into that and get your reaction >> talking about America America. One of the big things here, we've been talking about the re-industrialization of America for a long time. Uh bringing back advanced manufacturing. Uh now you're talking about building the terra fab building chip fabs in New York. What what what compelled you to do that now with all the other things you're working on?

[00:54:59]>> Well, we you know we try to So what's the limiting factor? Um and the the limiting factor what we see as limiting factor is uh being able to make chips both uh logic memory and packaging. Um I mean it's worth noting that there's not a single uh high volume um computer memory fab in America right now zero. Um there's one being built in Idaho uh by Micron but that will not reach volume production till I believe 2028.

[00:55:29]um and there's something being built in New York but they are I think 29 and 30 um and and this is a tiny fraction of the memory that's needed and in fact even if if you take the best case assumptions of the um the memory makers and the logic makers it is not enough to meet the demand that is anticipated um which is why you're seeing you know stocks of like micron go to I think 1.2 trillion or some quite high number um the so there's just clearly um a a need for uh AI logic, memory and packaging, AI computers essentially um that is far beyond what uh even the best case assumptions of the existing um fabricators can do and that's why we need to do the the tariff. Um yeah it's it's seems like essential otherwise we will not there will not be enough chips.

[00:56:28]>> Yeah I think >> very sobering.

[00:56:30]>> Yeah.

[00:56:31]>> Yeah. But the most interesting aspect of what he said there and it's the first time I've heard him talk about it is memory. M >> so he's talked about data uh chips at length or processing processor chips before at length um and whether they're GPUs or whether they're dojo it doesn't matter he's talking about you know inference processing specifically >> uh which is not necessarily a GPU at all but now he's talking about memory and memory is like a whole order of magnitude ude more complex today >> than it's been in the past and this is quite new. This is quite a new conversation and it sounds like more capital to me.

[00:57:20]>> Yeah. Yeah. Although I think it it's again it's I think it's more of a reflection of um consensus across the AI industry. Um and we've seen you know Samsung Hanx and other memory players really shoot up.

[00:57:36]>> Oh no. We we that's been you know a theme for a long time in the AI world >> but in specifically in terms of SpaceX's target or the terraab's target up to now they haven't spoken about memory. If you go back and look at the announcement of the terapab conversation about memory >> this time he's focused on memory.

[00:58:01]>> How do you think he's going to approach solving this problem? a takeover or in-house with a terrify >> I I think that partnership is very important here because you know um he's partnered with Intel already. I think that he's got a partnership with Samsung. So I think he's going to leverage these partnerships to focus on you know what he needs to focus on in order to manufacture memory. Samsung is in the memory business in a big way. He mentioned SK Heinix in this conversation. So they're, you know, pretty darn big in the memory world.

[00:58:43]They they've built some massive plants in high speeded memory to build high-speed memory and took an enormous gamble on it. So it'll be interesting to see which way he breaks on that.

[00:58:56]>> Yeah. Yeah. And of course, all of this is for inference. uh when it comes to orbital data centers not training >> important to remember that >> okay >> he does go on to say a couple of interesting things about uh supporting other players let's listen to that >> so I'm going to do one more on uh some of the stuff you're building and then a little bit more on other issues uh AI strategy you've also bought took Grock inside uh into SpaceX how does that fit into this platform you're building >> uh yeah there's it, you know, so we we do intend with our SpaceX AI satellites uh to allow people to put whatever GPU or TPU they want. So if uh Nvidia GPUs can be put on it, uh Google TPUs can be put on it, Amazon traniums or or any other chips that people want to put on uh can be put on. Um we will also offer our chips in the future. Uh and I think we also want to offer our software our AI software as well in the future. Um but uh but it will be such that you can run anyone's AI on hardware or software on the the Tesla AI satellite or SpaceX AI satellites.

[01:00:10]>> Yeah.

[01:00:12]>> Okay. Let let me just quickly pause pause there and get your thoughts about this slip up. Yeah. Because what's something's playing on his mind. What is it? Elon doesn't slip up with that.

[01:00:23]>> Yeah. I I wouldn't make too much of it.

[01:00:26]I mean, we know that it's going to happen. We know that it's going to happen. Never mind, >> never mind whatever naysayers says, but Tesla and SpaceX to me in my mind are intertwined. They're just given. They're it's a given.

[01:00:41]>> And so, um, I don't [clears throat] put much store by that slip. I know a lot of people do, but I don't.

[01:00:49]But there's there's there's this there's this whole debate about the admission to the S&P 500 and could it be do you think it's a possibility that um >> you might have a Tesla SpaceX merger before and then it replaces Tesla in the S&P 500 automatically. How does that work? What are your thoughts?

[01:01:10]>> It's such a minor issue. It's such a You know what?

[01:01:15]>> It has it plays no role in Elon's mind in my judgment.

[01:01:21]>> Yeah.

[01:01:22]>> I mean, it is it, you know, it comes and it goes. It's a blip.

[01:01:27]>> Yeah. Last last time it was a hell of a blip. I mean it went to the moon and a lot of people look upon that as you know the last the last uh I mean they look at that number the 400 whatever the whatever the top price was and they say oh it's down from that price well that price was never >> no but admission to the S&P 500 also has implications because you have so many funds that automatically have to uh buy into it and reflect it on their >> roden in fullness of time.

[01:02:04]It just doesn't matter. The value of the company is the value of the company and >> whether it's in the Fortune 500 or the NASDAQ 2000 or the S&P 100 m hearing you loud and clear. Let's continue completely different. I'm going mention each one. I'll each ask you each one, but one's about his view of patriotism, his service to this country. One's about culture and bench. How do you actually build these wonderful companies? Because a lot of people here have that those issues. And then kind of leadership um about I have a very specific question about that, but first I'll start with patriotism. You've served this country.

[01:02:48]I know you're a patriot. We've spoken about it. How do you view your role of of being an American patriot helping uh the United States?

[01:02:56]Uh yeah, I mean I'm I'm an incredibly pro-American. Um so and frankly always have been. Um so yeah um you know so SpaceX does do a lot of work for um the what what used to be called the Department of Defense Department of War these days I guess. Um the we have an a division called Star Shield which provides um military communications. Um and um and you know this there there's some other stuff that's kind of classified. I guess we can't be talk can't talk about that but um you know we are we are helping the um department of war and and intel part of the government were we're vital element of that. Um so yeah I mean I'm yeah just super pro America always have been. Thank you.

[01:03:56]So I I could just almost feel Elon itching to talk about that, but he can't because it's it's super sensitive and stuff. I think this is one aspect of SpaceX's involvement in >> American geostrategic natural interest and you know Space Force and all of that that gets overlooked doesn't get talked about enough how central and key SpaceX is to American national security.

[01:04:23]SpaceX brings to the United States advantages that no other country has that no other country enjoys. M >> um you know start with [snorts] Falcon 9, continue on to, you know, our ability to launch people into space, you know, continue on to Starship, which is the future and which will change America's strategic position to the rest of the world.

[01:05:05]Never mind getting to the moon, never mind getting to Mars, never mind. And then Starlink. Now, Starlink has been absolutely crucial to Ukraine being able to hold themselves >> to hold off Russia. Absolutely crucial.

[01:05:21]In fact, if Staling didn't exist, Ukraine would not, I I propose, exist today >> as as an independent state.

[01:05:32]So, yeah, I mean, no doubt about it.

[01:05:35]None at all in my mind, uh, SpaceX is one of the most important assets that the United States has in geopolitical terms.

[01:05:51]and >> and and Star Shield is takes that to a whole new level, of course.

[01:05:56]>> Yeah. Yeah. I mean, it's an obvious, you know, and secret part of this whole complex.

[01:06:04]>> Yeah. And I think um the Trump administration uh the DoD uh recently awarded SpaceX another contract uh I think roughly about $2 billion if I not >> Yeah. to launch a constellation of satellites for to track aerial targets, missiles, etc. >> It's part of the Golden Dome.

[01:06:27]>> Yeah. It's part of Star Shield and Star Shield is a critical component of the Golden Dome. Yeah.

[01:06:33]>> Yeah. Yeah.

[01:06:35]>> Very difficult to block that. And you know, you can you can try and you know, explode an atom bomb in that in that particular orbit.

[01:06:47]>> Yeah. But then that takes down everything.

[01:06:50]>> If you do that, then everything goes to him.

[01:06:53]>> Yeah. Yeah. And there was a bit of speculation uh in the past couple of weeks that um Iran could launch launch a ballistic missile to take down certain assets, space assets of America. And there there was there was a lot of uh and I was like you would turn every country in the world that has as an asset in space into your enemy if you did that because of the thing.

[01:07:16]>> I mean, yeah. Iran could do that, but you know, firstly they've got to get the the the rocket of that capability. They got to put it on a launch stand and then they got to hope that they can get it fired before um it gets destroyed or it be I hope it gets to space before it gets destroyed.

[01:07:36]>> But you know, they would be committing their own suicide, which I guess they could do. They could do. Yeah.

[01:07:43]Well, Larry, um it's been an extra long um chat with you in this episode. Thank you for your time. Uh so much to take away from everything that we've discussed and heard Elon talk about the S1 documents, everything. Thank you.

[01:07:58]>> Thank you.