Gulf Coast Braces As Tropical Depression Two Is Expected To Become Bertha

[00:00:01]Hey there, Bob. Yeah, that's right. I'm over in Clearwater Beach, Florida, which overall throughout the weekend has been able to dodge a lot of the moisture coming from TD2, which is expected by possibly the end of the day today, if not early tomorrow, to become our next named storm. That being Tropical Storm Bertha. Climatologically speaking, the first B-named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season usually happens at around July 17th. July 20th, we're not too far off. So, uh really this is not unusual. However, it's been a quick evolution as the center of circulation initially was in the mid levels over the weekend and then was able to form more of a surface circulation, which is why we're eyeing it as becoming that tropical storm. A couple of things working in its favor. I can confirm to you, I took a dip in the water when I first landed uh here in the Gulf of America. It's warm. Water temperatures are over 80°. 86.8° was the official read just a couple of days ago. We still have a lot of heat, and so that is exactly what a tropical entity would want. You need at least 80° in order to see strengthening of a system. Couple things working against it, though.

[00:01:04]Number one, we have some drier air. It's working its way in from the north, but also from the south, which is why Clearwater has had those dry time moments. Because the drier air has been able to separate some of these feeder bands and then make some areas totally dry where maybe you drive 20 minutes and whether it's to the east or to the west, and you have very heavy downpours. Uh the big threat for Florida right now is going to be for the Florida panhandle.

[00:01:28]So, think the I-10 corridor and points south. Really eyeing Apalachicola and the Apalachicola Bay. That's a spot that's already seen upwards of 4 in of rain in the last 24 hours. The preset mesoscale discussion that was issued at about 11:00 this morning. And so, with that highlighting the threat of heavy rain that's going to stay consistent and could produce some flash flooding. We'll hold on to that flash flood concern for at least the next 2-3 days as the center of circulation starts to move even further towards the west northwest being driven by this area of high pressure that's sinking south out of the Rockies.

[00:02:03]That's what's guiding this thing out towards potentially even Texas. Texas right now not under the the cone of uncertainty, so not necessarily thinking tropical yet. However, there are a couple of models right now it seems to be more of the outlier solutions, but as we've learned in seasons past sometimes the outliers become the consensus. There are a few outliers that do drag this thing over to Texas and it could be as little as just some excess moisture from the remnants of what was once Bertha or this thing could continue to grow in the warm waters of the north of the northern Gulf and potentially become a hurricane.

[00:02:39]Now, again, hurricane looking less and less likely just given the wind shear, the dry air, possible interaction with land. There's a lot of different factors, but it is something that we'll have to take into account over the next few days. Taking things real quickly back to the Tampa area on the west coast of Florida, a couple things that we're watching out for. Increased rip current risk with the winds blowing on to shore.

[00:02:58]That's a danger. We also with these scattered thunderstorms are seeing a lot of frequent lightning. It can be hit or miss at times, so if you have a nice beach set up and you see lightning into the distance, that's something you have to worry about. So, maybe less elaborate beach set ups, maybe some a little bit easier for take down and set up purposes just considering the scattered nature of these storms. We also have a small craft advisory off the west coast of Florida, which is basically highlighting that the winds are pretty strong. So, for smaller boats, smaller aircraft, it's going to be hard for them to travel around in this area.

[00:03:28]Overall though, I will say for western shores of Florida, this is beneficial moisture. We didn't have hardly any moisture from the tropical season last year, which is why they had such a significant wildfire season just a few months back. So, getting some moisture is not a bad thing. They still have a good ways to go at least here in Tampa in order to make up a deficit, but we're trending in the right direction, but I will say anywhere along the northern Gulf with those extended tropical storm watches and storm surge watches that have been issued, we'll be talking about more significant impacts from Bertha for the next at least 48 hours and beyond.

[00:04:03]With that, I'll toss it back to you, Bob, in the studio.