Iran emerges stronger, Israel more isolated after war, analysts warn

[00:00:00]From Washington DC, we're joined by Alan, who's a distinguished diplomatic fellow at the Middle East Institute and a former senior diplomat on the US negotiating team for the 2015 Iran nuclear deal. And joining us from Tel Aviv is Alan Pinkinas, who's uh a former Israeli ambassador and consil general in New York and columnist at the New Republic. Gentlemen, uh welcome to you both. Uh Alan, let's start with you. Is it possible um at this stage uh to judge whether whether this deal which President Trump says could still be signed within ours despite Israel's attacks on uh birut is a meaningful breakthrough diplomatic breakthrough or are we all getting ahead of ourselves right now?

[00:00:47]No, it would in fact be if it happens and we seem to be approaching it asmtotically. But if it does happen, it would be a significant breakthrough because it allows for the possibility of negotiations on Iran's nuclear program and because it will move toward increasing the volume of maritime traffic through the straight of Hormos.

[00:01:08]So if it happens, it's significant, but let's not look light at the remaining obstacles. Even if it does happen, the hard work just starts if we get an agreement.

[00:01:21]>> Alan, because Donald Trump has publicly rebuked Israel over its latest attack on on Beirut. When when was the last time that Israel found itself so visibly out of step with a US president?

[00:01:36]uh you you'd have to go 30 40 years back. I mean, yeah, there were crises uh u during the Ford administration in 1975, the uh the the George HW Bush administration in 1991 under Secretary of State James Baker. Uh there were a lot of uh I'm sorry, there were a lot of spats, but nothing nothing like this.

[00:01:57]And this this is not a natural uh sequence. This is not a natural evolution. This this has to do um Adrian with the fact that Trump while not admitting it publicly because that would make him look weak and uh gullible uh Trump is livid. Trump is livid, angry, disillusioned and uh uh disappointed with what Netanyahu told him as those flawed premises going into the war.

[00:02:25]Obviously the responsibility lays with Trump but he is upset the regime has not been toppled. Uh the uh uh there was no popular uprising. The inter the Iranian revolutionary guard corps was not demolished. The Iran's missile capability has not been destroyed and their nuclear program well at least the uh unaccounted for 440 kilos of highlyenriched uranium uh um are still out there. on top of which they shut down the straight of Hermus and attacked the Arab Gulf. All of this runs contrary diametrically uh contrary to what Mr. Netanyao told Trump in midFebruary would happen. So what you see now this this lashing out um is because Trump is not only livid with the entire war but is but has finally acknowledged or recognized the fact that Netanyahu is trying to undermine it.

[00:03:26]>> Okay. Um Alan in Washington you were involved as we said in the the introduction in negotiating the JCPOA.

[00:03:33]What are the first things that that you uh will be looking for when the the details of this this memorandum of understanding finally emerge?

[00:03:44]>> Well, I mean, if we do see a text, and I hope we will, I'll be looking to see one or two things. One is what does it say about Iranian management of the Strait of Hormuz? We saw a leaked version by Iranian media that said it would be open under Iranian arrangements. So if in fact ships have to go through the new traffic separation scheme that the Unitedi that Iran imposed which is through Iranian coastal waters as opposed to the old one which is through uh Omani coastal waters that'll be significant and also the disposition of the highlyenriched uranium. I think people tend to overfocus on the highlyenriched uranium because if you're worried about an Iranian nuclear bomb they know how to enrich. They can build centrifuges. So yes, this gives them a short-term ability to sprint toward a nuclear weapon, but even if we get rid of the HU, the highlyenriched uranium, they've got lowenriched uranium and they're able, they've got centrifuges.

[00:04:43]So again, if he's lucky enough to get a deal, President Trump, it will have the same contours of the Obama deal, which is Iran accepts restrictions on its nuclear program in exchange for money.

[00:04:55]And the secret sauce of any deal is going to be hard, vigorous, and rigorous inspection by the International Atomic Energy Agency, the IAEA.

[00:05:06]>> Alan, in Tel Aviv, has this war left Israel more secure, less secure, or simply facing a a different set of of threats and problems than it than it did before.

[00:05:20]Well, it it it may be slightly premature to uh um assess whether it's less secure or more secure. This is has to do with uh geopolitical dynamics. But I'll tell you this, Adrian, um Iran of uh mid June 2026 is exponentially stronger geopolitically and more emboldened than Iran of February 28- 26, the day the war started. Iran has upended the strategic uh um equation. Iran has attacked the Arab Gulf States and Iran uh uh drove a wedge between Israel and the US and that is not uh or these are not uh things that we should uh uh take lightly. All that being said and done, you know, it it it it remains to be seen what kind of relation what kind of power balance is going to develop between Israel and and Iran, but it's certainly Adrian going to be different and less advantageous to Israel than the one that existed in February.

[00:06:28]>> Alan air in Washington, Israeli officials are already warning that this could become another bad deal. Could could anyone credibly make that uh argument before actually seeing um the memorandum of understanding itself? And and one of the criticisms of the original uh JCPOA was that it delayed rather than completely dis dismantled Iran's nuclear capabilities. So So what lessons from 2015 will US negotiators uh be looking not to repeat this time round?

[00:07:00]Well, I think this current US administration really does not look to history to provide to to learn any lessons. It just wants to say it got a better deal than Obama. I think that's highly unlikely because the two key facts are Iran has discovered a new form of strategic deterrence that it can both weaponize and monetize. That's control of the straight of Hormuz, which it can do relatively easily with rockets and drones. And also the US has lost significant strategic deterrence because it and Israel took out their big guns literally and figuratively and struck Iran repeatedly twice in the last year and it wasn't enough for Iran to to to recalibrate its red lines. It's also put in place a more militarized a more hardline Iranian leadership that as the ambassador said is more willing to take risks. So it is theoretically possible that the Trump administration will engage in serious sustained negotiations and come up with a nuclear agreement that is in fact better than the JCPOA. I think that highly unlikely.

[00:08:07]>> Gentlemen, thank you both very much indeed. Alan in Washington DC and Alan Pinkus in Tel Aviv.