Israel Says 'NO' to Trump's Iran Deal | Peace Deal or Middle East Powder Keg?

[00:00:00]A massive diplomatic development has just shaken up West Asia, but depending on which capital you really listen to, you're hearing two completely different versions of reality. United States President Donald Trump in Washington triumphantly announced that a deal with Iran is ready and a formal signing is scheduled for the 19th of June in Switzerland. On his social media platforms, President Donald Trump declared an end to the well 100-day long conflict ordering an immediate lifting of the American naval blockade and declaring the strategic Strait of Hormuz open to the world. He even punctuated the moment by telling the global shipping industry to start their engines. But turn your eyes to Tehran and the mood is far more cautious, even defiant.

[00:00:43]>> [music] >> Iranian officials are stressing that this is merely a preliminary framework, a memorandum of understanding, not a final fact. They maintain that the crucial details, especially the exact terms of permanent sanctions relief are to be rigorously negotiated over the next 60 days. Now, while Iran has agreed not to produce or acquire nuclear weapons under this initial draft, their focus remains fixed on securing hard ironclad guarantees before implementation fully begins. The fragile nature of this agreement was put to the test after a sudden Israeli strike on Beirut nearly derailing the entire negotiation. President Donald Trump issued a rare public rebuke of the top US ally stating flatly that the strike should not have happened at a time when peace was so close. Iran's negotiators used the moment to slam Washington arguing the attack proves the United States either lacks the will or the dynamic ability to control its own allies. Of course, talking about Netanyahu. And that brings us to the biggest wild card in this entire geopolitical puzzle, Jerusalem. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has completely rejected the terms declaring that Israel is not a party to this memorandum and is absolutely not bound by it. Israel has made it clear that they will not withdraw from captured Lebanese territories and they will continue an independent security policy.

[00:02:06]Why is Israel so strongly against this agreement? There are five main concerns here. First up, the deal could give Iran a financial boost through sanctions relief. $12 billion is what we're learning. Second, Iran's nuclear capability is not being fully dismantled under the current terms. Number three, Hezbollah could continue to operate in Lebanon. Number four, limits on Iran's ballistic missiles are not clearly defined in this memorandum. And fifth, the agreement does not directly address Iran-backed proxy groups that threaten Israel and its neighbors.

[00:02:42]>> Lebanon is not part of this agreement. Lebanon uh the future of Lebanon has to be determined by the government of Lebanon, which is negotiating a peace deal with Israel at this point. So, we will continue taking action as we have been taking this morning um to continue dismantling the Hezbollah infrastructure in the south.

[00:03:05]And uh you know, at the end of the day, the Israeli cabinet will have to look at the text and we have to decide what it wants to do. We are not part of the agreement.

[00:03:13]>> And this puts Donald Trump in a difficult position. A diplomatic breakthrough could still be derailed if Israel takes strong action. At the same time, putting pressure on Israel could upset his conservative supporters back home. Donald Trump must try to balance Israel's security demands with the need to keep Iran at the table. And there is also a gap between the promises made in public and the actual details of the deal. And finally, any wider conflict in the region could drag the United States back into direct involvement. The big question that we're trying to underscore tonight, can you actually call something a deal when the two sides cannot really agree on what they have signed. How much does a US Iran deal actually mean if Israel is not part of it? If this deal collapses, what happens next?

[00:04:03]Pathekrit Paye, geopolitical analyst with us on the broadcast. Many thanks for taking out time, Pathekrit. You've been helping us decode this right from the start. It's been about 100 days.

[00:04:12]Help put this into perspective here. You see, you've got almost every major stakeholder here, Washington, Tehran, Europe, the Gulf states, Iran actually also was cautious enough to dial Motegi in Japan to bring him in his fold. They've all welcomed this framework, but when Israel openly says that this deal does not bind us. I mean, is this an unprecedented public challenge to American diplomatic authority? The rift seems to be widening, but words like, "You should be thanking us."

[00:04:43]Netanyahu is a difficult guy. Where do you see this peace deal happening because the next 60 days means rigorous negotiations that are still on the cards, but Israel could play that small sport. So, it's going to be a question of whether Netanyahu uh Donald Trump, beg your pardon, is going to be reined in a Netanyahu. What What's your assessment here?

[00:05:03]>> Uh good evening, Kabir. Well, there can be multiple players who can play a spoil sport. Trump is banking on Israel not attacking Lebanon.

[00:05:14]He's banking on Hezbollah not attacking Israel. He's also banking on hardliners in Iran not uh you know, waging another strike on the Arab states or IRGC not attacking any ship in Strait of Hormuz.

[00:05:28]He's also hoping against all hopes that the negotiations on the nuclear issue will go according to what America want feels it's justified. Look, let's put it this way. America wanted to do a Venezuela on Iran. They could not achieve it because Iran is a different country. It has a formidable arsenal. It has a strategic depth. So, because it was they could not do it, I think somewhere you know Trump administration was looking for an exit route because the midterm elections are coming. Inflation is becoming a very big problem within United States. His own ratings have actually nosedived. So, he was looking for some kind of an exit route. I think a lot of countries here feel shortchanged. It's not just the Israelis.

[00:06:10]You see not a lot of Arab states might feel a little discomfortable uncomfortable because the concessions that have been given to Iran because they feel that Iran whatever what the end objective was for which the Arab states allowed literally the airspace to be used has not been accomplished. So, I think on one hand Israel feels that their security considerations are being undermined because it is a reality.

[00:06:35]There is only one country which arms Houthi, Hezbollah, and Hamas, which is Iran. And therefore, their concerns have not been addressed by the Trump administration. Likewise, the Iranians themselves are very uncomfortable.

[00:06:48]They're not very coming out in the open to actually acknowledge the deal.

[00:06:53]They're not celebrating because they also feel that somewhat the other day the Israelis might wage another strike within Iran without the permission of the Americans. And again, if the Iranians do not get the kind of concessions they feel they should get, then they feel that this entire you know negotiation or ceasefire will be a useless thing. For example, the Iranians would want that Iran should be allowed to come out of the sanctions and be a player in the international oil market. Now, if that happens, it's good for Iran, but a lot of Arab states will be very unhappy because that would lead to the crash in the price of oil. And that is not something which many OPEC countries or oil traders want. Secondly, if Iran wants to be part of the India-Middle East-Europe economic corridor backed by the European countries, and if America does not allow that to happen, then what happens next?

[00:07:42]Third, you know, there is an institutional knowledge that Iran already has so far as enriching of uranium is concerned.

[00:07:48]The core issue is about the 440 kg of enriched uranium. Iran will not want to give it back. And that's where the problem arises. There is another issue, last but not the least, within Iran the biggest mistake the Americans and the Israelis did is by assassinating their supreme commander. So, today you do not have one single unitary supreme commander within Iran. You have a mosaic structure of leadership where you have multiple power points, power centers.

[00:08:15]So, one side may agree to the ceasefire, one other side may not agree. They feel that we why should we give the concession to the Americans?

[00:08:22]>> You're right, a glimpse of which we saw during the Islamabad talks as well. You know, the minute Araqchi went back home, the IRGC was really not happy with the kind of strength that was shown with, you know, the entire airplane that went there, the entire delegation that went to Islamabad. You know, Zaki Shalom, senior researcher at INSS, joining us live from Tel Aviv, also with us on the broadcast.

[00:08:43]Sir, I'm going to come to you in just a second. A quick follow-up here, Patheakrit. You see, you've just helped us understand that no party here is actually happy with the deal. So, is this just another and yet another sham in the face and in the garb of a deal?

[00:08:58]Donald Trump, they're saying he's going to be in Geneva on the 19th of June, but it seems like it's going to be another moment of optics, not really an actual deal that can spell out peace for the entire region.

[00:09:11]>> Kabir, we we should look at it as an extension of the ceasefire other than a peace deal. Number one, I am very optimistic that the Strait of Hormuz will get opened up because the price the right high price of oil is pinching a lot of countries. But if you look at the track record of Middle East so far as peace accords are concerned, starting from the Oslo Accord in 1994, the history is not something worth talking about. There have been many instances where there is no guarantee that tomorrow America also will not do some defensive operation >> Mhm. within that region by saying that no no I'm not getting into conflict but this is a defensive operation.

[00:09:44]>> Yes.

[00:09:45]>> So there are so many subterfuges no deal within that region is possible without the Arab states and Israel being part of it. So unless you take the Arab states into confidence unless you because you know the bulk of the the assault by the Iranians have been on the Arab states and their critical infrastructures. So have they you know had a discussion taken into confidence the Arab states?

[00:10:08]>> All right.

[00:10:09]>> You know Israel has its own you know considerations and threats. So there are multiple players and only two players are negotiating. That's where the problem starts.

[00:10:18]>> No you're absolutely right. I would even go on to say that there's just a unilateral vision at play over here. Not even the other person is coming in. It's it's all about what Donald Trump wants and how this could effectively benefit the United States' administration. Mr. Shalom is with us on the broadcast here.

[00:10:33]So how do you look at this? Because you see Donald Trump has called Benjamin Netanyahu who's a very good friend a very difficult guy and he says you know you should be thanking Washington. Even suggested Israel should be grateful to the Republican administration. How significant from the Israeli point of view is this public language between both these leaders? Donald Trump starting the day by saying that we've finally come to a deal. Congratulations to all and Benjamin Netanyahu clearly saying hey look we're not part of it.

[00:11:03]>> Well I'm seeing things from a historical perspective and I can tell you that since 1948 every major Israeli strategic move has been disagreed by the United States.

[00:11:18]>> Mhm.

[00:11:18]>> And we did it without their where their agreement. So I'm not really very much excited and I'm not much very worried about this situation because if you look at it in the perspective in the historical perspective you see this is just one another collision between Israel and the United States. And the And in most cases, Israel acted on its own interest and eventually the United States had to put up with it. So, this again has to happen now. We We showed even during this war that all the the the American position, the the entrance into Rafa, the the the use of of of of arms against hospitals in Gaza, and so on and so on. We were We were standing against the United States and eventually we did what is good for our interest.

[00:12:14]So, I think this is again has to will be will take place in the in this in this case.

[00:12:21]>> Okay. Okay. But you see, sir, but you know, I'm talking about the facts here, not the rhetoric. The United States says that a framework exists. How credible is this framework is a different question altogether. Iran says that it is ready to sign it. Europe, the Gulf nations, even some nations in Southeast Asia, the markets have heaved a sigh of relief.

[00:12:41]So, they're all essentially welcoming it. But if virtually everyone wants to move towards de-escalation, Israel is acting as though the war must continue.

[00:12:50]That's what critics are saying. That that's That's what it looks like from the outside. Israel wants the war to continue.

[00:12:56]>> I I I don't think that your your assessment is with all due respect is correct, my sir. Because I think there are many states that are surrounding Iran that wants the war the war to go on and wants Israel to defeat Iran. The The Gulf states surrounding Iran wants us They They are telling us secretly, "Go ahead with it and crush Iran." That's what they want.

[00:13:21]Nobody really wants to >> Gulf states have been dilly-dallying for the longest time. The Gulf states have been dilly-dallying. And Patrikrit, you know, mentioned quite you know, to the point that it's important that the Gulf states are also taken into consideration. But, we've seen it time and again, Patrikrit, that the Gulf state also can't seem to make up their mind. They don't know exactly what side to choose here.

[00:13:42]>> I think >> Well, number one, you know, they they have there is there was a history of Iraq-Iran war going on for eight years.

[00:13:48]There is a sectarian issue in Middle East that no one can deny. Thirdly, most of the Gulf states have benefited immensely at the cost of economic sanctions on Iran that keeps the price of oil high and that gives a normal profit to the Arab states. That is a This is a reality. Also, the problem for, you know, if you look at Israel, I think, you know, we will be a little unfair to blame Netanyahu. The fundamental security considerations of Israel are such so profound that whoever comes to power, the core security concerns of Israel are not going to change. Because Iran is not giving any guarantee that they would no more arm Houthis, Hamas, or Hezbollah.

[00:14:28]That guarantee is not there because these three non-state actors have been clearly created for one specific purpose, that is that is, you know, Israel. And these non-state actors have been a big menace and a problem even for the Arab states. That's why you see the Arab states did not side with Iran. They have been literally on the side of the Israelis when it came to this issue of dealing with Iran. Because a powerful nuclear-armed Iran is a bigger concern for the Gulf states, Gulf Arab states, than even for Israel.

[00:14:58]Because none of these Gulf states have the kind of weapon systems or the ability to fight a long wage a long run war that Israel has. Last but not the least is that is the Americans the are the Americans themselves con- convinced about what they want to do? What is the guarantee tomorrow there will be no protest within or no reservation within America in terms of the concessions they're trying to give to to Iran. That is the core issue. So, I think, you know, Trump has a habit of actually claiming more than what it actually in reality is. I think the midterm election is what they're doing it. They're trying to They're trying to soothe down uh the price of oil uh for such They want to calm down the nerves for some time, but if we presume that the core issues have been addressed, they haven't been addressed.

[00:15:39]>> So, then that means that means that the reservations coming from the Israeli point of view are quite uh "quote and quote" justified. Mr. Shalom, if if you look at this framework that the United States has put out, what are some of the most fundamental sticking points from the Israeli POV?

[00:15:56]>> Well, for me, first of all, I want to put another perspective. We're heading towards elections. And you know, uh Netanyahu must come out come with as a victorious politician.

[00:16:09]>> Fair Fair enough. Yeah.

[00:16:11]>> This is a crucial thing. Uh probably also kind of midterm elections.

[00:16:17]So, both we have kind of domestic issues that are also very much uh has to be taken into consideration in this regard.

[00:16:27]Basically, I think that once Iran is is crushed and I I want to tell you that I think that the Gulf state are talking in two languages. The one is in the public, the other side is in the secret. When they're talking with us, I think that telling us that they're they're uh they're telling us to go on in the war and to to crush Iran. This is their interest and also our interest. So, I think that that the main thing that Israel has to to ensure in this regard is that Iran will not be able to to renew its nuclear project and it will not be able to rearm with ballistic missile. We have to We We must ensure that. Otherwise, you know, the public will will will send Netanyahu back to his home. And he knows he's very >> You know, a very important point, Mr. Shalom, that you raised was that today the leader of opposition in the Knesset, uh he hit out at Benjamin Netanyahu as well. He's really not happy with how America is calling all the shots, and I think that's why Benjamin Netanyahu came out with a hard stance saying that we're not this this new framework uh does not put us in a binding situation, and we're going to continue with our uh you know, um operations in Lebanon. Uh Israel insists that Hezbollah must be dismantled before any meaningful peace or space for a peace dialogue can really emerge. But, after months of fighting, and you're talking about crushing Iran, if if anything, the last 100 days has told us that, you know, it's going to be a a mammoth of a task. It's going to be uh an uphill battle to crush Iran. And on the other hand, you've got the entire world that's that's dealing with the misadventures of United States and Israel. Is Israel trying to chase an objective that maybe militarily impossible to achieve in a short span of time, and should the other half of the globe suffer because of that?

[00:18:22]>> Well, you know, I think that Israel is now in a in a position that is better than ever since its uh its creation as a state.

[00:18:33]And we are considered to be kind of uh of uh very great great power regional power in the in the region. Everybody knows Israel's technology, its abilities. Ev- everybody is aware of Israeli military options, and I think this has to be taken into into consideration. Of course, we we must take into into consideration our relation with the United States, and there is a big gap between us and the United States. But, eventually Israel is in a position now to tell the United States that things that relate to our basic interests we will not we will not yield on that. And I think this will be understood and eventually the Israelis would appreciate our position. This is This is my my view.

[00:19:19]>> Okay. All right. My my my my my final follow-up to you, Mr. Shalom. You see, I I'm going to put it bluntly here. If If the United States, Iran, Europe, the Gulf countries You earlier dismissed this assessment. It's not mine. It's actual facts and figures. Um you know, much of the international community, they're collectively trying to move towards a settlement of sorts. Let's just call it that at the time being.

[00:19:41]What is exactly Israel's alternative plan beyond bombing, beyond more occupation, and beyond uh more prolonged war per se?

[00:19:52]>> Well, I think that you know, if there is Hezbollah, for example, stop launching rockets against Israel, and stop firing against Israeli settlements in in the Galilee, I don't think that we we we we are going to to to escalate the the warfare. Eventually, we want quiet. We want quiet. And we want to to ensure that that the state that are surrounding us will not will not will not pose any more strategic threat on on Israel. This is achievable, I think, and and it's in our hands. And I think it is we're going to achieve it.

[00:20:27]Uh I think we're going to to to come to a new era with a with peace for for long long period of time.

[00:20:35]>> All right. All right. But I get back my final question to you. You say Mr. Shalom here says that Israel wants quiet. But if this quiet is coming at the cost of tacit revenge, I mean, there's always going to be an answer coming from the other side. So, um I've asked you this question again. Has that assessment really changed? The last time I asked you, what is going to be the end game here? For months, the story was uh America and Iran. And suddenly, this new friction has sort of come into play. Uh it's America and Israel as well. So, you know, it's a triangular um love, uh you know, triangle that's gone sour. The center of the crisis, it's shifting with each passing day. How do you see this you know coming to an end?

[00:21:15]>> Well, well I think the primary conflict is between Iran and Israel. America is still a distant player and that's what the Israelis have the grudge that you stay somewhere else across the Atlantic.

[00:21:25]You don't face what I we face. That is the the Israeli you know you know talking point. So, I think till the time Hezbollah continues firing on Israel, the Israelis will retaliate on Lebanon and that is the condition that Iranians have put that any attack or any strike by the Israelis into Lebanon is something that will be considered as a violation of the entire peace framework.

[00:21:47]So, everybody has put somebody else into a tight knot. That is why against all odds to presume that this peace framework is going to work will be a little far-fetched. We can at most consider this as an extension of ceasefire. I believe that there will be peace for some time, but there are too many ifs and buts on which Trump is hoping for and even if because that's back home mid-term election that is going to that is going to be a reality.

[00:22:10]Otherwise, right now I don't see an end game. It is going to continue for quite some time.

[00:22:15]>> Okay, it's going to continue. I think we're going to stick to that because the operative part that you said was this is a tight knot. It's not a peace deal.

[00:22:22]It's a tight knot. It's a tight knot for everybody. If anything at all, it's an extended ceasefire. Let's stick to that because the peace deal it may be signed on paper. We don't even know whether that's going to actually turn into a reality come the 19th of June, but the real test will begin on the ground and it seems like this entire war is not heading that way. If Israel refuses to fall in line, the question is not whether Donald Trump can make a deal with Iran. The question is whether he can make his closest allies stick to this peace deal. We're going to be keeping a track on each and every twist.

[00:22:52]Many thanks for joining us Patrikrit.

[00:22:54]Many thanks Mr. Shalom for taking out the time and helping us out with your point of view here on this