6-12-26 SPCX Day! Liftoff!

[00:00:02]Good morning, everyone. Welcome to SpaceX day.

[00:00:06]Today is the day. It has not opened yet.

[00:00:09]As expected, right now they are projecting a price opening price of about 175. That certainly could change between now and probably 1:00 or 2:00 when it opens this afternoon.

[00:00:21]I was thinking probably 180, so we'll see what happens. Would not be surprised if it opens, let's say at 1 it gives us 3 hours left in the day. I would not be surprised to see it end the day at 250.

[00:00:33]They're up about 40%.

[00:00:35]We'll see. We'll see what happens.

[00:00:37]But uh good luck to everyone that's uh participating or wants to participate.

[00:00:41]It's going to be a fun ride. Everyone's watching it, of course. CNBC is doing nothing but SpaceX today.

[00:00:48]Which uh is understandable. I am not a financial advisor, of course. So, anything that I say is for educational and entertainment purposes only.

[00:00:57]All right, let's first take a look at uh it is, by the way, 10:45 a.m. a little earlier than most days because want to watch SpaceX and see when it opens finally today.

[00:01:08]Um let's take a look at the 10-minute chart and see what's going on in the markets right now. Pretty much status quo. Opened right here. We're pretty much at the same place.

[00:01:18]So, we are sitting right pretty much right at the open, just moving sideways, probably waiting for that SpaceX IPO. You can see the daily expected move right here. We're right smack in the middle of it.

[00:01:30]Uh all of the aggressive sectors are down slightly or flat. Technology is the key one to watch.

[00:01:38]The defensive stack sectors are down slightly.

[00:01:41]Kind of what you would expect on a pretty much flat day today. Materials though was up and energy is down a little bit.

[00:01:47]And then um growth versus value down.

[00:01:51]Discretionary versus staples, pretty much flat. Technology, flat so far.

[00:01:55]Semiconductors are up and semiconductors are are doing pretty well today. And then transports are flat as well.

[00:02:01]Um I want to show you the Russell cuz that's the one that's really flying.

[00:02:06]Interestingly, so here's the S&P sitting right at the 21, and breath is positive and moving up.

[00:02:13]So, there is still a lot of bullish fervor in the market right now. Here's the Russell 2000, small and mid caps.

[00:02:19]You can see they are outperforming large caps by a wide margin. Continuing to go up all week.

[00:02:26]And right now it is heading towards the daily expected move, which is up here.

[00:02:33]Um so, small and mid caps are the big winners. Here's the breath. They're moving up as well.

[00:02:39]Small caps, Nasdaq 100 pulling back a little bit right now.

[00:02:43]This is a 10-minute chart, so this is live.

[00:02:46]Uh also sitting right here in the middle of the daily expected move.

[00:02:50]With uh advancers and volume actually is um pretty tame, but the VIX is down below 20. It's at 19.37, so it's still a little bit elevated, but below 20, which is good. Good for the bulls. So, we'll see how this ends the day. Here's the um breath for the Nasdaq.

[00:03:09]Kind [clears throat] of flat.

[00:03:11]I would have expected this to be moving up a little bit more than that, but it's really not.

[00:03:15]And then the uh uh contraction and expansion, you can see yesterday we had quite a bit of expansion with the market moving up.

[00:03:23]This is mostly I think due to the news about the Iran war, which has kind of um kind of uh subsided a bit today, so we're going back into a contraction mode. Likely going to stay in contraction, I think until that space.

[00:03:38]So, we'll see what the end of the day is going to be really interesting, especially on a Friday.

[00:03:42]So, we'll see what happens. All right, let's take a look. A couple of things I want to show you. Uh first is satellite companies. I put together a of other satellite companies. These all were moving higher yesterday, the last couple of days.

[00:03:59]Um probably waiting for in in in relation to SpaceX. This one interesting is looks just like SpaceX. Wondering if some people might have bought it thinking that it was SpaceX, SPCE, which is Virgin Galactic.

[00:04:14]But you can see most of them other than Viasat, these are all mostly satellite companies or companies related to the satellite and rocket business.

[00:04:23]Um space Virgin Galactica is down.

[00:04:27]Virgin Galactic, sorry, not Galactica, down 25%.

[00:04:32]ASTS SpaceMobile down 12.

[00:04:35]Satellogic down 11%. So, continuing to move down. So, all of these are negative right now.

[00:04:42]Interesting. I wanted also look at the um Mag 7 and friends. So, this is all of the large cap tech stocks, which if the indexes are going to make room for SpaceX, I've talked about this for the last couple of weeks, that they may have to sell off some of those large cap stocks, and those are all down today, mostly down other than AMD, uh Arista Networks, both both up 3 and 4%, and then Google kind of little bit higher, almost flat. Costco, of course, is not a a tech stock, but Nvidia down, Meta down, Microsoft down, Tesla, Apple, the bottom of the list, SMCI, of course, but Amazon, Palantir, Oracle, Broadcom, Netflix, all of those at the bottom of the list. So, all of those are selling off today, probably to make room, but the indexes are not really going to be a factor until the end of June, beginning of July, is when it will start.

[00:05:42]And then it will be a rolling process into next year.

[00:05:45]And then we've got the two other big ones.

[00:05:48]Um the big uh IPOs coming up probably August September time frame.

[00:05:56]So, we'll see how those go.

[00:05:59]All right. Uh next let's take a look at SpaceX. Here we go.

[00:06:05]This is a uh This is you can see the time frames here at 10:00 a.m. 11:00 a.m. It's not trading yet, so it's just basically flat right at 135.

[00:06:17]I will expect this to jump up.

[00:06:21]And it's not even on the chart, so probably going to open way up 175 180.

[00:06:28]And then be interesting to see what happens at the end of the day. For those of you that have stock charts or basically your own platform should do this as well, but whatever chart you like chart style you like. In fact, let me do it. I'll see if it's Yeah, it doesn't even show on that one.

[00:06:48]Or that one.

[00:06:52]All right. So, I'm going to keep it on this one back here cuz this one actually does show me right here each hour. So, I'm going to continue to watch this, but right now we're pretty much flat.

[00:07:02]Uh not has not opened yet.

[00:07:04]All right. Um let's next go to the dashboard. You can see the S&P has pulled back a little bit right at the 21.

[00:07:14]>> [clears throat] >> Sitting right there.

[00:07:16]Opened went up yesterday got stalled out right at the 21 and now is pulling back on the day.

[00:07:23]Now, SpaceX is not going to enter the index the S&P index until 27 maybe even 2028. They have to be profitable before they can get in. So, this one may not be that much affected, but look at the Russell 2000 which actually was right now it's sitting right at the previous highs. It was well above that just a really just a few minutes ago.

[00:07:45]So, that one's pulling back right now as well.

[00:07:48]Don't know if that means anything and then we'll look at Bitcoin.

[00:07:51]Bitcoin right now, a nice day yesterday.

[00:07:54]Uh sitting right at the eight moving average, but it's above this this um this danger zone down here, let's call it.

[00:08:03]So, it's starting to move back up. So, it might now start to rally back higher.

[00:08:08]We'll see.

[00:08:09]All right. Back to um back to the dashboard, you can see energy, materials, finance, real estate, Russell. These are not typically um aggressive sectors. These are kind of the neutral or defensive sectors. At the bottom, we have discretionary, gold, communications, health care, Nasdaq 100, and technology.

[00:08:33]Those are the aggressive sectors and they are bringing up the rear.

[00:08:37]Interestingly, in my breakpoint momentum chart list, which for those that are subscribers, if you go to the website and go to the chart list page, or those that would like to be subscribers and get this list, this is a momentum list that is generated every week.

[00:08:56]This shows you the criteria. There are 308 names in this list this week. This is just the top 50 of that list. So, this is a CSV file that you can download into your own platform. That's what this is right here. Every single name Let me look and see if this has changed. Every single name over here are in the AI um the AI buildout list that I created. So, back over here, right here, you don't need to be a subscriber to check this out. You can go go to the AI buildout stock list.

[00:09:27]And this has a list of stocks that are related to the AI buildout. The very first one is an ETF.

[00:09:34]Data center, you can see it's starting to move back up So, this might that might be the pullback right there. That could be [clears throat] the end. We might be starting to move higher again.

[00:09:43]Um but these have all of the names in here.

[00:09:47]Um So, that's what this is.

[00:09:50]This uh AI build-out stock list is on stock charts for those that are stock charts members. If you click on the vote button, that will keep it in the uh top rankings. Mine's number one, number 22 right now. Started off at 107, wasn't even on the list. But now it's at 22, and you can see all of the charts in here. But all of the ones on the dashboard, everything in this first list, the ones that are doing the best, are all on that AI uh build-out list. Cypher, Arm Holdings, AXTI, NVTS, semiconductor stock, Viavi Solutions, another semiconductor stock. Here's a Applied Digital moving up. Seagate, again starting to move higher.

[00:10:41]So, all of them are on that list. At the bottom of the list is Lunar Planet Labs, Rocket Labs, RDW. These are all the ones that I just showed you that are on that um space Iridium space-related list that I just showed you. All of those are at the bottom right now. Amazon's down here, too. Interesting. And Apple.

[00:11:01]So, let's see what else we've got. There's There's Broadcom, Boeing is uh down 1% today.

[00:11:10]Um Data dot We'll look at Boeing here in a second.

[00:11:14]Uh Lockheed Martin is down. Lilly, Walmart. These are all near the bottom of that momentum list.

[00:11:21]Uh so, interesting. Let's go back and uh All right, let's look at some of the stocks.

[00:11:28]So, somebody asked me about a couple of them. This is Boeing.

[00:11:32]So, you can see right here, Boeing has a green bar, but it is down today, down 1% right here.

[00:11:40]Down 1%, so it just went up and basically just touched the 50-day from below. It's got a lower high.

[00:11:48]If this starts moving down, it will be a third that second lower high.

[00:11:53]And it's got lower lows. So, this is in a confirmed downtrend. You can see the MACD line is below the zero line and the ADX, which the green was trying to get above the red, but actually [clears throat] it might get rejected right here.

[00:12:09]So, the bulls are trying to take back control, but right now the bears are are basically it's neutral. I would call that neutral right now.

[00:12:17]Uh so, it's going to be really important to see if it can make it through that, but right now it's putting in lower highs.

[00:12:24]The uh next one is Honeywell.

[00:12:28]Honeywell is definitely moving higher, so Honeywell looks pretty good, actually.

[00:12:34]Honeywell is moving up today. Had a blue bar yesterday, green bar today. It's above the 21 and momentum is starting to move up. So, Honeywell actually looks pretty good.

[00:12:46]So, this is one that um looks pretty positive.

[00:12:50]Uh Honeywell, by the way, spun off Quantum, which I talked about previously.

[00:12:56]QNT This is a uh Quantum stock.

[00:13:02]So, this was an IPO from uh week before last. You can see it started right here.

[00:13:07]Let me do this with a candlesticks.

[00:13:14]So, opened up here, right there. Opened right at 68. Traded up to 71. By the end of the day, it had traded all the way back down. It went down here to a low of 50 50.

[00:13:27]And now it's starting to move back up again.

[00:13:29]So, very volatile trading and one thing about SpaceX is it has some early lockup periods as early really as August.

[00:13:40]And if it really does take off and it'll be interesting to see what happens next week, but by the end of today it's probably going to go higher than whatever the open is in the last 3 hours.

[00:13:51]Um but then we'll see what happens after that. But the lock lockup the beginning of the lockups will start in August at some period after their first earnings.

[00:14:00]And their earnings should be in July.

[00:14:03]So, sometime in August well, some of the first lockups will end and we'll see then if people start to sell. That could push it down, but by between now and then it could go up quite a bit. It I talked about it yesterday it should enter the MSCI index probably within 2 weeks 2 weeks from today in fact and then it will enter the NASDAQ. Both of those will be forced buying.

[00:14:27]So, that should push the price up too.

[00:14:30]So, we we could have uh very volatile and it'll be interesting to watch. So, [clears throat] again good luck for anybody that's in right now.

[00:14:41]All right. Uh finally the last thing is I'll show you some uh some of the little gems that I got from Schwab. Here's the major indexes through yesterday.

[00:14:50]Uh these are the max drawdowns. So, here's the return. This is uh year-to-date returns for the S&P up 8% 11%. Russell is the one that's doing the best.

[00:15:05]Max drawdown there you can see right here average number of that of each of the indexes drawdown pretty negative.

[00:15:12]So, that's was interesting. Here's uh Atlanta Fed wage growth tracker.

[00:15:16]So, wait we talked about wages yesterday. Wages eased. Still positive, but it's moving lower and has been moving lower for quite a while now.

[00:15:27]So, that's not good that um consumers won't be able to afford the inflation that's coming.

[00:15:33]Here's uh citing foreclosure and eviction as the top reason for taking 401K withdrawals.

[00:15:41]Uh followed by medical expenses and tuition. So, that's what it looks like for those. These are just little interesting tidbits, basically.

[00:15:49]Here's a Federal Reserve ratio of household net worth to disposable personal income, measure of households' potential to finance consumption out of their wealth, dipped to 7.8, but still pretty high.

[00:16:02]So, the consumers right now actually still look pretty good. Here's demand for goods, prices surged 2.8% largest monthly increase since the series began.

[00:16:12]Drove most of the acceleration in the PPI, and I showed you the container costs yesterday that they are accelerating rapidly. So, those are going to contribute to PPI as well. So, PPI actually will probably continue to move up.

[00:16:26]Uh three-month annualized basis, core PPI rose 5.6%. So, that's what core CPI PPI which just came in yesterday.

[00:16:35]Food and agriculture price index eased to 130 versus 131. It's not much of an ease, 130.8 from 131.

[00:16:45]Uh but remained 2.9% higher than a year ago. This is vegetable oil dairy prices declined, while cereal meat and sugar continue to climb. So, these are the kind of things that everyday consumers are um are concerned about.

[00:16:59]So, watch the consumer as we move forward into the rest of this year.

[00:17:03]Interest paid on short-term loans fell to 7.8%.

[00:17:07]So, that's continuing to go down. That's a good thing for the economy. And then finally, supply of existing homes unchanged in May, but uptrend over the past couple of years has not been interrupted. So, the supply of existing homes is continuing to climb.

[00:17:24]Um and not it it basically is back to 2020 levels.

[00:17:31]Just before the pandemic. We're basically right back to levels just before the pandemic.

[00:17:36]All right, that's it for the little tidbits. Hope you like those. Let me know what you think. Uh let's go back over here to Let's take a look at what the market's doing right now. For this, I'll look at the indexes.

[00:17:50]By the way, this is what the um the charts look like right now. Fear and greed went up slightly. Probably going to go up higher today.

[00:18:00]S&P right now is uh sitting right on the gamma flip line.

[00:18:06]Right in between the weekly expected move. Today is the end of the week, so probably not going to break the weekly expected move.

[00:18:14]And you can see the call wall actually increase way up here.

[00:18:19]Um this should be move.

[00:18:23]Not movie.

[00:18:25]Just bugs me a little bit, so I'll change it right now.

[00:18:29]So, that's what that looks like. That's how easy it is to work with with the stock charts. Here's Nasdaq 100 moving up today, little bit above the 21, still within the weekly expected move.

[00:18:41]And it's above the gamma flip line, which is good.

[00:18:44]And then the Russell 2000 uh actually broke out. It is now above the gamma flip line. So, below the gamma flip line causes acceleration in the move. So, you can see in this case, the acceleration was to the upside.

[00:18:57]So, it doesn't necessarily mean it's going to go down faster. Sometimes it goes up faster when it's below the gamma flip line. And that looks like what's happening right now. So, it's continuing to move up and momentum is moving higher as well. So, and it's and it's at a new all-time high. So, small and mid-caps is really looks like where things are.

[00:19:18]All right, that's it for now. Let me know if you have any questions, comments.

[00:19:23]Uh please like and subscribe if you would.

[00:19:27]And uh click that little thumbs up button, which really helps with the algorithm. I appreciate it. Good luck today. Good luck for those that are in Space X. Let's um I don't think it's trading yet, but yeah, it's not trading yet. We'll see what happens by the end of today and uh keep on watching. Thanks, everyone. I'll talk to you tomorrow uh Monday. Have a great weekend, too, by the way.