Gulf on Watch with Tropical System getting Closer to Land...

[00:00:00]Monday, July 20th, 2026. I'm meteorologist Brian Shields. Thank you for joining me. All eyes on this this developing system. Good news though from overnight. What I've been watching all night long, it is not better organized.

[00:00:12]That is good news to pass along. And I always keep it in perspective on this channel. Watching it as it sits over warmer water. It is going to strengthen a little bit, but maybe not significantly. That would be great. Uh I want to go over a bit of a northern jog to the track of this. I mentioned two scenarios yesterday, more of a southern route toward Texas, more of a northern route that would take it closer to say uh Mississippi, maybe parts of Alabama, and then parts of Louisiana. It's looking a little bit more to the north.

[00:00:38]So, we are holding in monitor mode.

[00:00:40]Again, keeping it in perspective. I value your resources, your time, uh but your safety as well. So, I also want to go over some of the areas we're going to watch out for a surge as this just kind of sits over there. But, you see the swirl. So, uh you definitely see the system, but it's not uh kind of that classic system, which is good. It's not super organized. Uh it's going to be battling some wind shear that we've been talking about over the last uh several videos. But, bringing in some of those rain bands, clipping uh St. Petersburg from overnight, Clearwater area, up to the north right around the Big Bend.

[00:01:11]Some uh gusty winds in that, but again, nothing super crazy. Just monitor some of the gustier winds and some of the rain bands with this area moving in.

[00:01:19]This is Fausto, and then we have what's left of Alida that'll lift closer to California. We will track this. This could get closer to Hawaii. Big areas of rain elsewhere. Some of us way too dry as we know. Here's Fausto. Uh this moisture here with Alida getting tied in. But, as we swing back across the Caribbean, I want to show you some dust for us that is moving in. Another round of dust over the next couple of days that will be moving in. When we'll get that next tropical wave as we get back toward Trinidad and Tobago. And then you could see some of the rain here. Let me zoom down. You get back toward parts of Nicaragua, Costa Rica, Panama, parts of Colombia. Really heavy pockets of rain.

[00:01:57]I've been watching your comments from overnight. So, monitoring that. Now, we swing from the Caribbean out here. We're at the early stages of hurricane season.

[00:02:05]A couple of stronger tropical waves emerging in the short term, though, running into some of that dust and dry air. But, as the we get deeper into the season, of course, some of those will begin to hang together. Now, looking at the chances of this. Let's begin with this. We begin with where there is development. Most of the models have this area becoming a tropical storm relatively soon, maybe later today or early tomorrow in the northeast Gulf.

[00:02:31]With that said, yesterday a few of the models were hinting at this becoming a hurricane. I'm not seeing that at this point. These are tricky systems. I'll let you know what I I know and what I don't know. Systems close to home sitting over warm water could intensify a little bit quicker than expected, if you will. But, most of the models have this as a tropical storm, but a low-end tropical storm, not even a strong one at this point. With that, there are still some of the watches that are up parts of Alabama back through the panhandle of Florida.

[00:03:00]Tropical storm watches. Now, this may move in a little bit sooner and kind of diminish over toward New Orleans, right?

[00:03:06]A more of a northerly track. If that happens, that would mean nothing for Texas.

[00:03:11]And that is kind of the leaning as of now. But, if it stays a little bit more to the south, that could allow it to strengthen and move back toward Texas. I know that's some uncertainty. I understand that. Uh it's just tricky as this area develops. So, the good news is again, it's not better developed from overnight. So, you could see it here.

[00:03:27]Winds should top out around 50, maybe maybe 60 on the current heading. And then with a northerly jog, that would keep it closer to parts of Mississippi and parts of southeastern Louisiana. And then as it moves in, kind of diminishing it. So, we'll be watching out for that.

[00:03:44]But, anything a little bit more to the south, that would allow it to strengthen. But, as of now, I'm not seeing the hurricane prospects out of this, which is really good news to pass along.

[00:03:55]A lot of the modeling as well, based on what I'm seeing in the environment, kind of jog it to the north. Now, can it stay to the south and move toward Texas? Yes, these are fickle systems. Again, it's not even fully developed at this point.

[00:04:06]Kind of a homegrown system close to land. So, yeah, a little bit of a difference. Just a little bit of a difference in the distance makes a big difference what happens long-term. But I I trust your judgment, of course, with these things as we go forward. Again, giving you all the information I got.

[00:04:22]Now, watching the surge, we get back toward Here's the Mississippi-Alabama border, swinging back toward parts of the panhandle of Florida. We're looking at generally a 1 to 3-ft surge that is typically not too high, but I know being in these areas, being back through the Caribbean in different spots, Central America, 1 to 3, depending on terrain, that could be significant if you've got a home or business along this. So, again, while we're staying in monitor mode, not action mode, there are those exceptions, you know, if you're one of these areas that a 1 to 2, maybe 1 to 3-ft surge takes on water, well, of course, you need to take some action, but I I know you know those spots, and you already are. Now, this is interesting. This is the Google DeepMind. This had more of a southerly track yesterday. If you look at my previous video, generally a pretty good model, but it's not always the best at all times, but it was taking it more to the south, strengthening it back toward parts of Texas, right? And now this model brings it up toward New Orleans in a weaker state, and then you see that black line that just kind of stops. That's telling me the model saying, "Hey, at that point, it's not even anything anymore."

[00:05:26]And that's leading to what I'm seeing in the environment and some of the other models, more of that northerly track, becoming a tropical storm, and then kind of working in toward parts of Mississippi and parts of Louisiana, and then diminishing. That is the best thinking as it stands now. But again, a small distance, of course, that would make a change. And you look at some of the modeling just over for next 24 to 48 hours. I mentioned maybe tonight, tomorrow, uh becoming a tropical storm, but most just have it that low-end uh tropical storm, and then diminishing.

[00:05:54]This model here uh typically is a little bit too aggressive models. They're They're different computers. They have biases. Some handle different systems better than others. It's all the stuff I work on uh behind the scenes, but most have it becoming a tropical storm, but kind of a minimal one. And then, of course, with the interaction of land with more of a northerly track, then at that point weakening. So, holding in monitor mode. Again, in perspective on this channel, uh it's not swinging back toward the peninsula of Florida. I know some other entities are trying to make that a a possibility. Maybe keep you uh tuned in. I'm not sure. Uh but as we swing back here, we're in monitor mode.

[00:06:27]That's a heightened state, right? We're watching things. The only exception where we have that surge, and you know your spots, that's where we'll have to, of course, take action if we're taking on a some water, especially with a slow-moving system out there. So, here's one model, and then in a moment I'll show you another one. But you see the center of it right here. This is kind of a shorter-term model. This is 10:00 today, watching out for some of those rain bands that are working in. West coast of Florida, parts of the Big Bend, watching out for some of the rain bands.

[00:06:54]And you can see if it takes that southerly track, it would strengthen a little bit more and work its way closer to Texas. Most of the thinking now, and based on what I've been seeing overnight, and you see it for yourself as well, a little bit weaker, uh kind of takes it up toward parts of Louisiana, maybe Mississippi. Now, as we work our way forward, this is by 5:00 p.m.

[00:07:12]There's your time frame, top right-hand corner of your screen. See how it doesn't move much? And that's why I mentioned those surge areas. The surge isn't big, but it's kind of a persistent uh push of water that we're going to see as this gets closer to uh land. And then, by the time we get into uh tomorrow morning, this is by uh 5:00 a.m. The center just kind of wiggling its way over here, working its way to the west. Most of the action sitting over the open waters, but still watching some of those rain bands that are around. Then, as we move forward uh deeper into this time frame, you can see a little bit more of a jog back toward uh the uh northwest or at least west northwest, putting the center right about here. This is by the time we get into tomorrow, right around midday, uh noon, 1:00, some of those outer rain bands around parts of uh Alabama, some of those outer rain bands back through uh Florida could get a waterspout, brief tornado possibility uh with this. And then as we work our way deeper into tomorrow evening, you see the center now starting to approach southeast Louisiana. Here we are on Mississippi, Alabama, some of those outer rain bands kind of uh clipping by in some areas, Baton Rouge, New Iberia, we may see that. And then as we work our way into tomorrow night, early Wednesday, you see the center sitting here, not so much here. If it's more down here, that would allow it to work its way more off to the west. Uh that's the extent of this model, and then that kind of brings it into uh southeast Louisiana. We'll go a little longer term with this uh with some different modeling in a second, but let me show you that here. This here is a different model. This is taking a look at the winds, and this is probably the best solution as of right now. So, to give you a feel, here we are in Houston, uh looking at the winds, and these are over the open waters for the most part.

[00:08:48]See the white shading, those would be some of the winds gusting 40 to about 50 mph, right? So, you see that in here.

[00:08:54]This is by the time we get into Tuesday morning, tomorrow morning, and you see it a little more defined. It should become a tropical storm by that point.

[00:09:02]And then you see the center of this, how it's closer, it's closer to parts of Alabama, it's closer to parts of Florida. You see it kind of shifting a little bit more to the north. That's why I was mentioning that this one here is kind of a best uh solution at this point. And then you see the center here, closer to Mobile, here's Pensacola, here's uh Biloxi, and you see the center right here. Not super strong, you see some of the whites, which would be some winds of about 50 mph. Watching that surge though, of course, and then the center kind of working near Biloxi, or back toward uh New Orleans, and sin- sitting right in here. Now, as it works in, uh we're going to also be dealing with the wind shear that's playing a factor in this that may weaken it. And then you see here by Wednesday into Thursday, let me just jump ahead. This is Thursday morning. There's some sort of circulation right in here, but it's much weaker at this point. Sometimes, uh storms could uh really hang together over some of the uh swampy waters that are very warm, but because of the wind shear as well, uh the circulation just kind of dies out here late Wednesday into a Thursday. That is the best thinking. For your planning purposes as of now, a tropical storm kind of working into parts of Mississippi, Southeast Louisiana, and then diminishing. But boy, any little jog to the south, and I don't mean that in a scary way to make you hang on.

[00:10:17]Subscribe or don't subscribe to this channel. Just want the proper word out.

[00:10:20]But you could see how the center, if it's just a little bit more to the south, that would keep it over open waters. Again, trusting your judgment with this. Watching the wind shear though, this is the uh wind shear as we get deeper into tomorrow and again on a Wednesday. So, Tuesday and Wednesday, that that red shading in through there, with the slow movement of this, uh that wind shear just knocks off the tops of uh a developing system. That's what we've seen overnight. That's kind of the limiting factor from overnight. Uh have not seen that uh strengthening, and that's because of some of that wind shear in place. Most of the heaviest rain would be sitting just offshore, right? These are the totals throughout the week, but you see some of the whites popping up, 4 or 5 inches of rain. This is probably a little bit underdone, because we know if we get stuck in one of those rain bands, uh one of those alone could give us about 3 to 4 inches of rain. So, monitoring the surge and some of the rain, and watching out for that isolated chance of a tornado. So, the development zone right in here, uh that we are watching it. Again, we remain in monitor mode, unless you're in one of those areas that takes on that uh 1 to 3-ft surge. Caribbean, not seeing any development. We're jumping out here.

[00:11:23]Stronger tropical waves coming off the coast of Africa, as we know. But again, running into some of that uh dust.

[00:11:29]Eastern Pacific side, a different story.

[00:11:31]As we're going to watch Fausto, and this will get a little bit closer to Hawaii.

[00:11:34]Should eventually try to a weekend, but I'll I'll be covering that as well on this channel. We track storms together start to finish. I'm not going to leave anyone hanging at all. Here's Alida lifting to the north. The moisture may just diminish. Maybe it gets drawn a little bit into California. We'll show you that in a second as we work our way toward a Fausto. You see this here becoming a hurricane, and then eventually getting a little closer to Hawaii as we get toward the end of the week, the upcoming weekend, and even early next week with more of a westerly track on a Fausto. That'll be one we'll be tracking for a while. Mention the dust. You see here we are in Cuba, Jamaica, the Cayman Islands. Get back toward Central America. This purple shading, Jamaica, Haiti, the DR, back toward St. Lucia, Barbados, St. Vincent and the Grenadines, Grenada, Trinidad and Tobago, northeastern Venezuela, northern Guyana, and Aruba, Curacao, Bonaire. Some of that dust around today.

[00:12:24]Then it works its way even toward the Cayman Islands, still Jamaica tomorrow, clipping Colombia, Venezuela, over toward the ABC Islands tomorrow with some of that dust. That also means the low air quality, and then mainly dry weather. So, in this sector we have some of the dust around that we're going to be seeing. We'll cover some of the rain in just a second there. Working our way back here, some heavier rain, Jamaica, Haiti, the DR, Cuba. Rain chance is not high, but a pop-up shower storm is possible. And then I want to jump up here with this model in just a second back toward the Gulf. We'll cover that in just a moment. Now, you see some of the rain parts of Panama, Costa Rica, Panama, or excuse me, Costa Rica, Panama, and Nicaragua, but a lot of dust in this area as we work our way forward. Now, as we get into Wednesday and Thursday, I mentioned some of the rain, Trinidad and Tobago. We're going to see a chance of some shower, especially as we work our way into Thursday, kind of clipping by, maybe south of Grenada, but you see a little pocket of rain, but that to the north, that's another round of some dust we'll be seeing. There's some of the rain, Venezuela, Colombia, Panama, Costa Rica. Hit or miss shower, Cuba, Jamaica, Haiti, the DR. But again, where we have that X, that is more of that dust right in. That's why I mentioned those stronger tropical waves coming off the coast of Africa. They're running into that dry air, not expecting any development there in the short term.

[00:13:39]Here's a look at this model, just kind of on the broader picture. This here is the GFS, which seems to have a good handle on this, very similar to what we're seeing on some of the other models. And you see here again, a little bit different from the other model I showed you. This is by the time we hit about a 5:00 uh tomorrow, and this kind of works its way in toward the parts of uh New Orleans, and then eventually as we go throughout the week, diminishing on this solution and uh what I was showing you with those winds earlier, this would keep everything away from Texas, but watching out for the surge.

[00:14:09]And you see by Thursday, uh that uh circulation, especially with the wind shear, would just diminish as we work our way forward. Now, a couple systems here. Here is Fausto. Here is Alida.

[00:14:18]Alida's moved into the cooler water, rapidly uh weakening. We saw that trend try to lift its way up to the uh north.

[00:14:26]Now, as we go over the next several days, there's Fausto strengthening, becoming a hurricane. This here is tomorrow. You see a little of that leftover moisture, not a tropical system at this uh point off to the uh west of uh California. But then watching this, here's Hawaii. This here is by Wednesday, and we'll see if this kind of hangs together, kind of makes a run at Hawaii as we get deeper into time by the weekend and early next week. So, we'll keep uh an eye on that right here. I'll give you those updates as we work our way forward. This right here are the uh remnants of uh Alida. But watching out for some big storms coming out of Manitoba, parts of the Great Lakes, severe weather. Uh watching that, Minnesota back toward Wisconsin today. One front uh just off toward the east of Newfoundland, getting closer to Bermuda. And here's that area, that uh tropical depression that should become a tropical storm. Going out in time here as we work our way into our Tuesday. There's some aggressive weather starting to move toward uh Quebec, Ontario, uh swinging back toward uh parts of New England. But the Mid-Atlantic South, you see as we work our way through here, uh Virginia, North Carolina, across the Mid-Atlantic, some severe storms. And here's that moisture with Alida. You see here, this is Tuesday. Uh some of the modeling just kind of has it fall apart out here, uh just off toward the west of California.

[00:15:36]Then on Wednesday, you see that front for still parts of the Mid-Atlantic here, some showers, New Brunswick over toward Maine. And here's the diminishing, hopefully diminishing, uh tropical storm at this point, as we work our way back toward the Gulf. Busy pattern now, lots going on. Now, the seas are going to be elevated, as we know, the next few days. Uh running back through the northeast Gulf, we're looking at the seas that could top 10 ft in some spots. We're looking at about 3 m uh plus, especially as this tries to develop into a tropical storm. The good news this morning, though, uh it is uh still generally on the weak side. So, just kind of monitoring this area as we work our way forward. Here are the 3-day rain totals. Peninsula of Florida will get some bands of rain, but more of it kind of shifting toward the panhandle, Florida. Uh the Bahamas for us, our rain chance is just not high. Same thing, Cuba, Jamaica, Cayman Islands, Haiti, and the DR, see some coloring popping up, though, if we catch a shower, right?

[00:16:28]That's if. And there'll be a couple. We may get about 10, maybe 25 mm of some of that rain. Puerto Rico, we could pop up a shower, that would be possible. Could give us 25 mm or an inch of rain. US and British Virgin Islands, still not a whole lot with that dust around. Later in the week, we'll watch that moisture getting closer uh for us in Trinidad and Tobago. Uh little bit more in northeastern uh Venezuela, back toward Guyana, but again, kind of waiting on that Thursday, the day to see some of that rain closer to uh Trinidad and Tobago. Parts of Colombia, though, Panama, Costa Rica, parts of Nicaragua will get some totals over 100 mm of rain. Belize, rain chance not high. Same thing, back toward the Yucatan Peninsula. Scattered areas of rain back through uh Mexico City as we work our way forward. There's some of the rain with uh Alida that just kind of diminishes off toward the west of California. and with those big storms that will be moving by mid-Atlantic, parts of Canada, some spots 4-5 inches of rain over 100 mm of rain will be possible. So, Jamaica, pop-up shower storm, we're looking at about a 40% chance. Some of us just dry and hot, others we could see a shower or storm.

[00:17:33]40% chance for us today in the Cayman Islands, 30% chance tomorrow. And then over the next 2 days, could get a spotty shower or two Trinidad and Tobago, but Thursday, that's when we'll have a better chance. Rain chance staying at 20%. Back through Barbados, St. Lucia, we're looking at about a 20% chance of a shower and a 30 to 40% chance in Grenada. So, it's not zero, but it's just it's not high. St. Vincent and the Grenadines, 30% chance the next 2 days.

[00:17:58]And back toward Martinique, we're holding on to a 20% chance. 20% chance holds the next 3 days. Back through uh Dominica, 20% chance the next couple of days. In Guadeloupe, 30% chance by the time we get into a Wednesday. Antigua and Barbuda, we may catch a couple showers tonight and early tomorrow, but overall, we're going to see more of that dust moving in. Same thing St. Kitts and Nevis and Montserrat, can't rule out a passing shower for tonight, early tomorrow, but overall, lower air quality with some of that dust around. Anguilla and St. Barts, rain chance staying so low, stays very low. St. Martin, Saba and St. Eustatius, drought conditions persist. Puerto Rico, 20 to 30% chance of a pop-up shower. And it got to South through St. Croix, that rain chance staying on the minimal side. US and British Virgin Islands. Bahamas, again, not much, could uh get a shower, maybe around Freeport, we get a one or two uh popping up. Turks and Caicos, limited rain chance. Back through Haiti and the DR, rain chance still pretty low for this time of year.

[00:18:55]Big issue with the uh cisterns trying to fill those up. 40% chance tomorrow and Wednesday, we could get a couple of those pop-up showers and storms that would be around, just not widespread across Hispaniola. Back through Belize, as I mentioned, that rain chance staying relatively low. 20 to 30% chance Aruba, Curacao, Bonaire with some of that dust moving in over the next couple of days.

[00:19:17]I'll be watching your comments. Guyana today a 50% chance but just a 30% chance for tomorrow. Working our way back through Suriname, rain chance about 30 maybe 40% over the next few days. 30% chance as we work our way back toward Cuba and a 50 to 60% chance Costa Rica and Panama. This is where we could get those pockets of downpours over the next few days in isolated areas of flooding.

[00:19:39]Same thing in Nicaragua especially southeastern sections better chance of rain. Houston, we're looking at about a third excuse me, let me jump back here. A 30 to 40% chance as we get back toward Honduras.

[00:19:50]Rain chance not a super hot. We'll get to Houston in just a second. 30% chance of Guatemala and El Salvador 50 to 60% chance scattered showers and storms back through Mexico City, Yucatan Peninsula, Merida, Cancun rain chance staying on the low side. 50 to 60% chance northern Colombia some of that could be heavy.

[00:20:09]Northern Venezuela some pockets of heavier rain back through Bermuda watching that front that'll be nearby.

[00:20:14]Rain chance at about 20 back through central Florida, Orlando about a 40 to 50% chance but over toward Tampa and St. Pete's closer to this developing tropical storm. We'll watch out for better chance of some of those rain bands moving in. Miami rain chance about 30 to 40 the next few days and then back toward a Houston rain chance running at about a 20 to a 30. So the tropical depression it is a slow mover gradually strengthening and is not better organized in the short term. That is good news. We're holding in monitor mode but watching those storm surge areas and those stronger tropical waves will monitor going forward that are coming off the coast of Africa and of course watching the eastern Pacific which is very active and as this next area gets a name in the northeast Gulf it should get a name next name on the list as we know it is Bertha. So I'll be watching your comments throughout the day as I see anything try to develop even more so or even less. I'll put out those additional updates for you. I hope you're doing well. I'll be watching out for you in the comments. Have a really good day ahead.