SpaceX's IPO on Nasdaq represents the world's largest IPO ever, with a $75 billion valuation and $1.7 trillion market cap, making it the seventh largest company globally. The listing marks a historic moment as it combines three major business segments: rocket manufacturing and space transportation, Starlink satellite internet service (which generates two-thirds of revenue), and AI infrastructure development. Investors are primarily betting on Elon Musk's visionary track record with PayPal and Tesla, rather than current profitability, as the company is still loss-making. The company aims to build a comprehensive AI infrastructure stack including energy production, chip manufacturing, data centers in space, and AI models, with a total addressable market of $28.5 trillion. This IPO represents a paradigm shift in how investors evaluate companies with ambitious long-term visions, even when current financials are not profitable.
Space X IPO Listing LIVE: World's Biggest IPO Listing | Space X Nasdaq Listing | Elon Musk Reacts
Added:future that make you glad to wake up in the morning because you can't wait to see what happens next.
And that's the future that SpaceX wants to bring to you.
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Hello and welcome to the special show on the historic listing of SpaceX on Wall Street. What a big moment. It is clearly the artificial intelligent moment of this world. So that's clearly how remarkable and how big this moment is for the world. Now to talk about SpaceX, remember it's the historic listing because it's the biggest IPO that the world has ever seen. It raked in remember $75 billion valuations of $1.7 trillion sharing the stage with some of the biggest companies in the world like Apple, Nvidia, and valued as the seventh largest company in the world by way of the valuations clocked in of $1.7 billion. Remember, it's far higher than even Elon Musk's earlier listed company Tesla. When we talk about this particular company also remember that it makes the founder Elon Musk first for the founder as well as the company.
Now this rocket to Starlink to even AI all combined under one roof. Star Space X and the Starlink as being one of the big components of this has many firsts and many dreams as well as aspirations and that's what really is the attractive bit about this particular company. We are talking about maybe colonizing Mars and even going to space, traveling to space which has been made possible and on the other hand creating data centers up in the sky by sending 1 million satellites just stated at the time of the IPO that he is making science fiction and this is the big big SpaceX listing that we are really covering right coverage coming in with expert take on what it really means Apple these are the two big companies it's competing against but when it comes to the valuation bit as well it marks way higher in terms of valuations in terms of uh also 93 times of the sales to price valuation So that's something hard to digest. There have been many bills bears as well as bulls talking about this particular IPO. In fact, we have Natasha Israni who's right there at NASDAQ and joining us. The mood, the valuation, what Wall Street really thinks about this big IPO and what a big moment it can be. from space travel to sending Natasha is who is joining us right there from NASDAQ like it's an electrifying environment right outside NASDAQ there. How's the buzz? How's the momentum when we talk about the SpaceX listing and how's the mood out there? Tell us all about it.
feels like they're standing in the center of the earth at the moment because anyways, Time Square in New York City is the center of the financial world and now with humanity a multilanetary species, it seems like the place to be. So, I can tell you I've been here for now over an hour and I've steadily seen the crowds here gather to what Elon Musk is saying and certainly a lot of excitement in the market too. Now, trading, you know, starts at 9:30 a.m. Now, we $135 per share, but trading hasn't started yet, and trading could start anytime after 9:30 a.m. So, the bigger story is going to be when trade opens, at what price will those shares be exchanged and sold? whether it's going to be 135, whether it's going to be $110, it shows that it was overpriced, or whether it's going to be $160 or $170, which shows that it was underpriced. So, that's the big question. And to answer all of this and much more, I'm so honored and delighted to be joined by a friend and a veteran financial journalist, Conway Gittens.
He's also the host of the YouTube channel Main Street Money Moves and his whole idea is to make business more accessible to the main street. So with that idea in mind con first of all thanks for being with us this morning slightly rainy here today or when you look at this big story right it's all about Elon Musk a lot of excitement but are there any bets are there any bus like who are we really looking at what is this company it's not just a rocket company it's actually a company that has AI data centers which doesn't have yet in orbit Starlink so tell us more about what investors are really placing their bet on >> so about SpaceX, right? The space side of the business gets all of the attention in terms of SpaceX the company. Twothirds of the sales actually come from Starlink. Starlink is a satellite data company that's up in in this terrestrial and is providing internet web uh access to uh people around the world. 10 billion people uh have access to Starlink right now in terms of its customer base. So you get Starlink, you get SpaceX and you get X AI but also you get X remember Twitter X is a part of of that as well.
>> So Starink now you know what people don't understand often is they think that they're betting on a space company but this is much more than that. In fact, most of the revenue does come from Starink as Starink as Convey pointed out. But the other thing is that SpaceX was actually not profitable last year and it's still debuted as one of the largest the largest IPO ever. So what what is what are investors really hoping for? Are they just buying into Elon Musk's vision or are these investors really thinking hard about whether this company is going to be profitable in the future?
>> Well, there are two things that they're buying. The most important thing that they're buying is Elon Musk, right? Elon Musk has a track record. You look at PayPal, you look at Tesla, everything that basically most of the things that he's put his hands to have turned into gold. And so, people are betting that his vision for space transportation and his vision for space tourism is actually going to pay off. Now, the thing about Elon Musk is he's a visionary, right? He doesn't always get the timing right, but he gets the big picture right. So, let's say when he was talking about Tesla and he was talking about fully automated uh driving, right? He might have gave a deadline when he thought it would hit the road. That's not it didn't hit it didn't hit the road in that time, but we're on our way to that. So, that's what people are thinking about when it comes to SpaceX that the the transportation and the tourism side of the business is going to pick up significantly over the years and over the decades. So really it is projecting into the future and saying yeah we bet on this man no matter what he is and what he says he actually manages to pull things off and he has pull things off in the past from electric vehicles to rockets uh that people thought were not possible. But whether or not he's able to survive regulatory government regulations now that the company no longer private now that it'll have to give those financial quarterly statements which it didn't have to earlier. How it survives all of that remains another story and we'll be covering more but for now we're tossing it back to you.
>> Thanks uh for that Natasha and also stay on with us very very interesting takeaways coming in from Conway as well uh when we talk about um it's not buying into the lossmaking company but the vision and ambition of Elon Musk. Let me welcome on the show a panel of experts who are going to go deep dive on this particular historic listing. Jonathan Bryce who's the executive director at CNCF joining us from California as well as we have Pawan Kumar Chandana who's the co-founder and CEO of our own space space technology in the private space Skyroot Aerospace and we have with us Shri Kantto Makani who's the co-founder of Fractal and NASCOM chairman gentlemen so good to have you on NDTV profit Shriant what does this really mean for the AI moment in the world.
>> The very first thing we have to recognize is that while SpaceX is an amazing rocket company, space travel company and it is the foundation really what makes money for them is Starlink which is the internet service provider for the world.
>> Uh that is SpaceX is trying to become an AI infrastructure company. what they're trying to do and which is which will be the largest part of their wants to generate one terowatt worth of chips every year after a certain period of time. So he wants to own the chip layer, the energy, the chip. The next comes the infrastructure where you basically provide AWS Azure like AI infrastructure services. He really wants to own that by setting up those data centers in space powered by kinds of problems like water usage etc. That's the third stack. The fourth one on top of that is the model. here Elon has access to x.com 250 million posts every day um bunch of lots of active users fresh data along with that he has models the gro set of models which aim to be maximally truth seeeking accord according to him and therefore take him to AGI and finally on top of that he wants to build all kinds of applications but he's also building something called as macro hard which is a pun on Microsoft. He wants to build the eventual agentic AI software company called macro hard. So he wants to own the full stack right from energy to chip to model to applications all of it. So this is his grand >> full stock uh full stack of AI actually there Shriant and that's what he's really building and he has touch points with many of the big companies in the same space as well like Anthroic like Google like Nvidia so that really cuts across the entire space but let me throw this question to Jonathan Bryce. Uh Jonathan, what do you make of this rise of uh SpaceX IPO? The way the listing momentum has gained traction and on the other hand the big ambition and the dream that they have.
>> Well, I think that Sant hit on the uh the the real story here which is this is as a story of AI infrastructure growth.
I think that's where people see potential with SpaceX and really across the tech industry right now. Um if you look at the largest uh kind of hyperscalers uh the the AWS, Amazon, um Google, uh Microsoft, Azure, they're all spending hundreds of billions of dollars on capex because they see this massive opportunity. And the opportunity is that we're the research area of AI into kind of the factory production of AI. We're moving from just training mod answer questions, make predictions and really drive business value. And this is this is something that we see in uh in the way that compute is being deployed across the world. In the last 2 years, most of the compute that was being used for AI has shifted from being used for training these massive models to actually running and serving these massive models. So this is just the very beginning of this massive massive AI infrastructure investment.
Right. Great points there, Jonathan. But of course, we'll have to slip into a short breather and we'll come back for more on this particular discussion.
Please hold on to your thoughts on this historic moment, the big AI moment for the world. Take a short break and come back.
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When you say that 15.5 lakh cr is correct and the sebi has only found 3,000 cr. That's over 90% error right there.
>> The 15.5 lakh cr revenue which has come in for in 4 years is perfectly correct.
It is not a processing unit. It is a refining and selling unit. Sebi found spoke to affluence and affluence told them that they have not recorded a single trade with you that Rajes exports is not a client of affluence. So where is that 11,000 crores coming from?
>> The trade is absolutely correct. We have given all the required clarifications to Sebi in this regard.
>> You're directly saying that Seby's finding is wrong. They found that certain numbers of trades have been done from your personal account. I am not telling Sebi's finding is wrong because there has been no finding as yet.
>> Mr. Mata, you've still not answered the question.
>> Sebi has considered the gross profit as the revenue for whatever reason has thought that that is revenue.
>> But how can a communication error last 2.5 years?
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All right, welcome back. We are discussing the historic listing of SpaceX and we have a team of experts joining in with details on what it really means. Pawan Kumar Chandana when we talk about space technology this is big moment and you are in the private sector here in India comes to the technological advancement how much more advanced is SpaceX in this particular field globally and where does India really stand >> yeah so Nisha I think this is a very historic moment and as being part of the space community really super super happy uh for what SpaceX have achieved so far and what it has done for the industry.
So SpaceX has pioneered uh you know spaceflight. It is a 24 year old company. It has from started in 2002 you know as a very small startup and now it has emerged to build like the largest IPO in history across all companies as a proud moment for the entire space industry and it has pioneered uh you know especially the reusable rocket technology where today uh you know it is able to launch one launch every alternate day. So last year it has done 165 launches and it's increasing its launches every year which is unprecedented in the space industry and uh it is building uh the largest ever rocket made by humans the starship. It has done like 12 launches of it and it is going to be a fully reusable rocket where uh the entire rocket not only the first stage that this is going to be tremendously useful in taking more mass to space and in fact like the ambition of SpaceX to put a million AI satellites in space is can be fulfilled with this technology. So definitely it's like a pioneering uh company >> executable 1 million is that executable you know the execution provice and the engineering behind it Pawan very quickly is that uh an executable ambition >> that's that's a great question in fact like five years ago if you would have as asked us like you know if Starlink would be 10,000 satellites in orbit we would have said that it would have been impossible but now SpaceX made it possible. So I I'm sure like I think a million AI satellites in space is also possible. Of course it may take long time. It may take much longer time than what SpaceX might be expecting to do.
But I think uh the goal can be uh achieved and if you can put like 10,000 satellites in orbit in record time I think with a rocket like Starship which can put so many satellites in one go. I think it is achievable though it's ambitious.
>> All right. ambition but then it has also been uh one of the attractions uh for the SpaceX listing and that is the 1 million of these satellites and also creating the entire huge amount of data centers in the space. Uh but let's um also go across to uh the um you know NASDAQ and also uh Natasha is joining in. Natasha so um you know you heard the whole conversation there is one important question that you also rad in earlier that is now it's in the listed space a large amount of the voting rights and the share of voting lies with Elon Musk there has been a buzz of Tesla as well as SpaceX merging in future what is the construct all there and what is the chatter around it >> well the construct is you know Elon Musk has done what Elon Musk wanted including in the way he went about the road show of this IPO unlike other road shows he decided beforehand it was going to be 135 USD and he's stuck with that so he has a way of doing his own thing and now that he is part of a publicly listed company with 30% owned by privately how does that change the game now remember he still holds a majority stake he's still the CEO. He's still the chairman, but he is going to be having to be more accountable with those quarterly profits and results. And that is what we're going to be watching more closely. I do want to come back to the NASDAQ. You see, trading for SpaceX has not yet started. Markets have been open for 25 minutes, but trading hasn't yet started.
And I want to bring in Conway now to give us perspective on how does NASDAQ decide the number. What is the golden number at which it actually lists the stock for trading? It's not going to be 135 necessarily exactly. It could be below. It could be above. And what should investors be watching for in the first hour of trading con?
>> So what's happening right now is that the people who bought in the institutions who bought the IPO last night, that's one price. And now the people who are looking to buy in the first early trading, they are setting their price. So now there's a negotiation that's going on between those two entities. That's what's happening behind the scenes. And remember, they sold 555 million shares, right? So that's a lot. All of that has to be worked out and that's what's happening right now. And that is what will determine the first trade.
>> Okay. So, we're talking about today, but clearly we're talking a lot about the future, not just in terms of people living on Mars, but the future of this actual physical tangible company. So, Commie, what will you be watching in the year ahead that will show you that this IPO was actually successful other than raising the $75 billion? How much is it going to stay that way? Is this evaluation uh real? Is it authentic?
Well, the first thing that I'll be looking at is Starlink, right? Because Starlink comprises 2thirds of all of Space X's revenues. Now, it's average average uh sale per or revenue per customer has been falling in recent years. And so, can they sustain or push that price higher? The other thing is that there are two other divisions in SpaceX, right? You have Starlink. You also have uh SpaceX which is a space transportation business that's responsible for 22% of revenues but that com that part of the company has been losing money. It's expensive to a lot of money going into the infrastructure. So that's a money losing part of the business. You also got X % of revenue, but it is responsible for an outsized amount of spending, spending is going is going and how that's impacting the company's profitability.
>> Yes. Because this is as much about AI as it is about all these future visions andations for anthropic and for open AI already nearly a trillion dollars.
Um the demand is already there in terms of open AI right and anthropic. They have sales they have revenues they have government contracts.
That's right, Natasha. In fact, great point. It's the artificial intelligence which is driving the momentum as well as the valuations even though lossmaking.
Jonathan Bryce, how is this? And coming from the tech world, what do you think about this as >> Yeah, it it reminds me a lot of the early days of the inter unprecedented valuations for companies and we look back now and we see that in reality the the value that was created was much much much larger than than we expected 20 years ago. And I I think that one of the key things um that we see right now with with AI is there are actual hard constraints that are keeping AI systems from scaling as much as the demand is is that is exists for them. So we you know we talked earlier about power uh power demand hardware demand you know um Nvidia can't make enough GPUs to to to fulfill all of their customer orders do in uh in the cloud native community is really important because what we are seeing is that >> artificial intelligence so uh Shriant what do you have to say about this and >> I mean congratulations to him it's a pretty big deal getting it right across satellite setting up Starlink owning the AI infrastructure then owning all the AI applications companies there are many issues that can come up in execution for is possible practically we don't know how many challenges will exist yes they have deployed Starling satellites 9,600 of them but setting up AI space data centers, things like SP or you can see that they may have some some challenges along with you know fairly if you see the kind of truth seeeking AI that Grock has been building first of all struggling at this point of time relative to others now and the policy of mode and uh the other modes which are kind of risky and might create a huge number of issues in terms of regulatory compliance issues. Lastly, Starlink while it has star mobile access across the world, every country in the world has potentially can block it from being used in that country. Therefore, it has to clear a lot of of dimensions to get this right. So, it's not going to be easy. There will be some failures and hopefully there'll be some opportunities for people to buy the stock when those fail failures happen.
But again, hats off to the man for having this kind of an ambition at 1 trillion. Still thinking so big.
>> That's right. Ambition as well as passion all mixed together. Pawan Kumar, how much of uh this really means for the entire uh you know space tech and the technology over there and how much of it is really an uh example as well as inspiration for founders like yourself.
Are you on mute Pawan?
So, so uh so Nisha as you know like and you know it's it's been we have a flourishing 400 startup community in India now and all happening the last few years in probably even across the globe and and this will be like the big big moment of course for the Indian space sector as well because it's like the tide which will rise other boards as well and this shows the potential of a space company executing really well and uh I think that this is uh this will be a great boost for global space companies as well and of course the Indian space companies as well which which is just starting growing becoming mature and growing.
It's both inspirational and is also like a growth driver for the entire space industry and it also proves that uh a consistent hardcore execution yields a great results especially in the space sector with the TAM like Srian mentioned is almost 28.5 trillion uh across AI across AI infrastructure across uh uh space launches across Starling across broadband across uh uh across direct to mobile and plenty of other markets space can unlock.
>> All right. So big moment there and lots happening in this particular space and lots of innovation as well and uh thank you so much uh Shri Khan Jonathan Pawan for your expert take and time on this coverage of this historic moment. Of course it's a big thing for all of us and Natasha for giving your special touch right from the center of where all the excitement is and it is really infectious. I can feel that particular pulse right here in Mumbai as well and all of us can really uh be immersing in this particular you know moment right now. All right with that we come to the end of this special coverage. It's a big big IPO SpaceX now it's on Elon Musk to really deliver for the new shareholders.
Thank you so much all of you for tuning in. Thank you for joining us but keep it with NDTV Profit.
India Inc.'s most respected names chose India Inc's best and brightest. these uh kind of a roles and you know jewelry lineup you're truly giving it the right weightage >> I think it's uh heartening to see talent that there is in across uh India inc we should be awarding companies and individuals who have focused not only on growth but also on bringing good governance be part of jury and vote on the people the men the women the companies in India who have the right stuff is a great opportunity for For us, the biggest thing is trust.
That's what we provide. We need leaders in India that can help take India being a global superpower.
>> We got a fantastic jury and we've left all decisions to the wisdom of the jury.
>> Who will earn India's top business honors? Find out at the NDTV Profit Business Leadership Awards coming soon.
When you say that 15.5 lakh cr is correct and the sebi has only found 3,000 cr that's over 90% error right there. The 15.5 lakh cr revenue which has come in four in 4 years is perfectly correct. It is not a processing unit. It is a refining and selling unit. Sebi found spoke to affluence and affluence told them that they have not recorded a single trade with you that Rajes exports is not a client of affluence. So where is that 11,000 crores coming from?
>> The trade is absolutely correct. We have given all the required clarifications to Sebi in this regard.
>> You're directly saying that Seby's finding is wrong. They found that certain numbers of trades have been done from your personal account. I am not telling Sebi's finding is wrong because there has been no finding as yet.
>> Mr. Mata, you've still not answered the question.
>> Sebi has considered the gross profit as the revenue for whatever reason has thought that that is revenue.
>> But how can a communication error last 2.5 years?
Heat.
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India is rewiring.
The way it builds, the way it connects, from infrastructure to digital access, from reform to real impact.
But the big question is what will define the next India? MDTV Ignite the future India summit. A closer look at governance, growth and the future of a new India on the NDTV network.
This is where the future shows up first.
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No fancy jargon or spec sheets, just what matters. If it's shaping the future, you'll see it here first. The Tesla Model Y.
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>> to understand your next big bet.
India Inc.'s most respected names chose India Inc's best and brightest. I'm delighted.
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>> These are kind of awards and you know during lineup you're truly giving it the right weightage.
>> I think it's uh heartening to see talent that there is in across uh India Inc. We should be awarding companies and individuals who have focused not only on growth but also on bringing good governance. Be part of jury and vote on the people, the men, the women, the companies in India who have the right stuff is a great opportunity for us. For us, the biggest thing is trust. That's what we provide. We need leaders in India that can help take India being a global superpower. We got a fantastic jury and we've left all decisions to the wisdom of the jury.
>> Who will earn India's top business honors? Find out at the NDTV Profit Business Leadership Awards coming soon.
Heat.
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This is where the future shows up first.
Conversations with the biggest names in tech and AI.
Putting tech through its paces.
No fancy jargon or spec sheets. Just what matters. If it's shaping the future, you'll see it here first. The Tesla Model Y.
This is Tech 360. Real talk, real reviews across the NDTV network.
Hi, I'm Tamana. Watch me on NDTV Profit where I break down the day's biggest business stories. What happened, why it matters, and what it means for your money.
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When you say that 15.5 lakh cr is correct and the SEBI has only found 3,000 cr that's over 90% error right there. The 15.5 lakh cr revenue which has come in for in 4 years is perfectly correct. It is not a processing unit. It is a refining and selling unit. Sebi found spoke to affluence and affluence told them that they have not recorded a single trade with you that Rajes exports is not a client of affluence. So where is that 11,000 crores coming from? The trade is absolutely correct. We have given all the required clarifications to Sebi in this regard.
>> You're directly saying that Seby's finding is wrong. They found that certain numbers of trades have been done from your personal account.
>> I am not telling Sebi's finding is wrong because there has been no finding as yet.
>> Mr. Ma, you've still not answered the question. Sebi has considered the gross profit as the revenue for whatever reason has thought that that is revenue.
>> But how can a communication error last 2.5 years?
Heat. Heat.
This is where the future shows up first.
Conversations with the biggest names in tech and AI.
Putting tech through its paces.
No fancy jargon or spec sheets. Just what matters. If it's shaping the future, you'll see it here first. The Tesla Model Y.
This is Tech 360. Real talk. Real reviews. across the NDTV network.
>> Hi, I'm Tamana. Watch me on NDTV Profit where I break down the day's biggest business stories. What happened, why it matters, and what it means for your money.
>> Hi, I'm Nidat Sha. Watch me on NDTV Profit for the most incisive market intelligence and meaningful corporate conversations.
And I'm Alex Matthew. Markets, mutual funds, insurance, personal finance. I help you cut through the noise and make smarter financial choices. And here's where you can watch us feel.
He has been tracking markets for over a decade, spots the trends before they hit the screen.
And he is now bringing his analysis to the show that the market watches.
Watch Shah Dubet on Know Your Company, a show that puts the most traded stocks under the scanner. We dissect the company so that you, the investor, don't have to get the management to answer questions relevant to you.
Watch Know Your Company weekdays at 11:30 a.m. To understand your next big bet, >> India Inc.'s most respected names chose India Inc.'s best and brightest. these uh kind of a roles and you know during lineup you're truly giving it the right weightage. I think it's uh heartening to see talent that there is in across uh India in we should be awarding companies and individuals who have focused not only on growth but also on bringing good governance be part of jury and vote on the people the men the women the companies in India who have the right stuff is a great opportunity for us >> for us the biggest thing is trust that's what we provide we need leaders in India that can helps take India being a global superpower.
>> We got a fantastic jury and we've left all decisions to the wisdom of the jury.
>> Who will earn India's top business honors? Find out at the NDTV Profit Business Leadership Awards coming soon.
India Inc.'s most respected names chose India Inc's best and brightest. I'm delighted to be a chair of such distinguished fellow businessmen, bankers. Um, you know, it's just lovely to, you know, be back on this NDTV uh jury. I have been a fan of NDV for a long time.
>> Many of the uh nominees are extremely close together in terms of what they what they've done.
>> Gender parity to be reflected in while we choose leadership as well. It's also important that how they are reshaping the industries. We've got a fantastic jury and we've left all decisions to the wisdom of the jury.
>> Who will earn India's top business honors? Find out at the NDTV Profit Business Leadership Awards coming soon.
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Welcome, welcome to this edition of the editor's cut and there is so much to imp unpack today. We have Swarup Manti uh with us. Welcome Swarup uh to this new offering from NDTV Profit. Now, the rules of the game is don't be polite.
Don't necessarily wait for one.
>> Don't wait for your turn because we we we do this for a living.
>> Don't wait for your turn. If you think that any point that one of us has made and you know, we'll just pull up the points of my take and Alex's take this week. But if you think that you don't agree with any of the points that we have made, uh please come in and say this doesn't make sense. That's that's perfectly what you want. And just come in whenever you want to. So, so it's a it's editors cut/ verbal dungle. So that's part of it. So, so welcome. So, this has been an interesting week. We're ending on a high and you know some of the thoughts that come to mind for me is we've seen skepticism because now after so many versions of deal 10 points 14 points uh there is skepticism skepticism there is fatigue but is is bar is there a glimmer of hope do you think? No, I think you know I'll only look at it like it's been tried and tested some time when it is actually done right because what's staggering for me and this started with the uh Ukraine Russia war the closure of the war is dependent on the smaller country not on the larger it's a smaller country play which when you look at it theoretically or whichever way you're talking about the two largest powers of the world actually dependent on the smaller countries to close it right >> so till it does not close I will not I will not jump the I don't conclude That's where I stand though. This time it looks a little markets are indicating that it's it's >> I want to believe it.
>> You know, there's one conspiracy theory that ahead of the SpaceX IPO, they're making sure that everything is in a great mood. I don't know.
>> I had a Donald Trump's birthday, but even if I had a view, I wouldn't be allowed to make that.
>> No, no. I don't know. The bigger coincidence is that there was a Bloomberg report quoting G7 officials that the deal can be inked on Sunday in Geneva. Guess whose birthday it is on Sunday? Okay, Donald Trump, >> I'm telling you, I'm keeping quiet.
>> Okay, so if you're going to keep quiet over here, but anyway, so the US Iran deal may be at the final stages of being inked, but we are a fair distance from normalization. Even if you believe this is going to go through and why I'm I'm, you know, depending on a Goldman Sachs report and some parts of it, they're talking about how oil exports from Gulf producers will normalize only by late August versus by late June, which was being expected earlier. Normalization may be achieved with a rise in hormones flows to 70% of pre-war levels given current redirections and there'll be a lower 2027 average Brent forecast by $5 to $80 on higher supply and lower demand. Um meanwhile the other thing that you know through the week people that we've been talking to and what we've been seeing is that December targets for Nifty have been seeing wild swings. So, City for example dropped its year-end target from 27,000 to 26,000.
There have been more bearish analysts on our platforms who've come and set things like 20,000 21,000 by December. Uh my take and belief is that the market rebound on the upside will surprise once the fog of war lifts over the straight of hormones. And I'm not saying this in a bearish or a bullish way. That's that's just how I see it right now. And then of course what was really a cracker this week was our town hall on NDTV profit with Shankar Sharma. It's gone viral. I'm sure you've seen it. Maybe you're one of the many people who've commented on it. And uh you know his his views on retail investors were top trend on X this week by the way. We had brick bats trolling a lot of comments. They're all welcome. There are many who said why have you had this interview? Why have you not? I'm saying it's all welcome as long as there is debate. Some of the biggest market voices have come out in reaction to contention of what he's saying on whether the aadmi can actually make money in equity and I think debate is good. If nothing else a dull market which you know we've had a chance to talk about something. So uh swarup do you have a hot take on everything that was said on SIPs etc. See, I've been doing this for 30 years and I' I've seen many bare market forecasters come and do that. Every time the market is like this, I disagree that markets do not belong to retail. Markets belong to everybody.
>> The retail might not. I mean, there's a debate whether they should go direct or not.
>> Yeah.
>> But rarely do they participate directly, right? We're talking about 30,000 crores per month from our side. And I'm calling out something now. from here on track the ETF and index volumes as a percentage of the market in the next four five years >> it'll continuously grow >> you're saying volumes volumes of uh >> just the ETF and and >> funds flow >> yeah just how much they are buying as a participant of the market and that's the collective retail right which route they take is a different issue right but to say that the market does not belong to somebody and belongs to somebody is a bare market phenomena and I've heard enough of this in the past >> I actually have a point on this because and I was thinking about this as much as we'd like to point to facts and data and all of those things we have to remember that the market any market is a collection of individuals that is a a mix of emotions and uh more often than not emotions and humans are driven by recency bias. So in September of 2024, you will know this because distributors in the mutual fund space would have told you and they would have come crying to you and saying, "Sup uh my clients are telling me that their uncle or their aunt got 22% compounded over 3 years.
What are you doing for me?" And they knew best, right? Cut to today. The recency bias is that nobody knows what is going on. Equity is the worst thing to do and mutual funds are not sahi, >> right? S are wrong. Should we play out that bite that we are referencing? Okay, so people know what we're talking about.
Here's what Shankar Sharma said on the town hall. Uh it got viral. It was a top x trend. There are a lot of views about it. Uh we as a platform don't agree or disagree with anything anyone says. We provide an open platform for people to come and give their views because we believe you should hear all kinds of views before making other decisions.
Listen in to some of the things he said.
>> SIPs have been a great product. I mean they have made a lot of money except they've not made money for the SIP investors as much as they have made money for VCs, PPS, family offices and of course FIS. So it's a great product for the four major selling groups. So IPOs have been OFS's in reasonable part.
Uh, of course the the family offices have cashed out big time because somebody made a plastic business, paper business, this business and there no clue, no hope they would ever get these exits. And now suddenly they have billiond dollar, you know, family offices. All that money has been given through a wealth transfer mechanism called SIP to all these informed investors.
Equity markets are meant for big boys and professionals. They're not meant for Mr. Jew on the street because the data does not support equity investing for the retail investor. Best case you make maybe 10 maybe 12%. Those days also in my view a little bit of a hindsight and past. If you're going to make 10%, 12%, 11% minus the tax of whatever 15 16%, you're left with 9 and a half. Divide that by volatility. Annual volatility is about 15 20% in India historically.
What are you left with here? Nothing.
You cannot on a risk adjusted basis beat even a fixed deposit because in fixed deposit you have no risk to begin with.
You have no volatility to begin with. If you do it in a decent bank you'll get your capital back. So you have return of capital and a return on capital. In equity potentially best case is a 10% headline number 11% minus the tax divided by the volatility. You're left with not much.
>> It's a strong take and and he didn't mince words. he generally doesn't. But I have a point to make here and there are several hot takes that have come on SIP.
So first it's become kind of cool or kind of normal to criticize the SIP.
That's something that I I think we can all agree on and uh one analysis actually talks about Sensex returns since inception. It pegs it at 20x since 1994, a modest 10% compounded annual growth rate. It argues that one should not count the 2002 to 2008 super cycle. Why?
because that rally was driven by once-in-a-lifetime earnings growth.
Okay. Post 2010, Sensex returns moderate to 9.4% compounded annual. The author suggests that 10% per year will diminish going forward. Now, why is this incorrect? In my opinion, compounded annual growth rate is not the appropriate measure for measuring SIP returns. You look at either internal rate of return to give you a a correct assessment of what each installment of that SIP has given you. That's how it is calculated. So suppose you're doing 10,000 per month. It'll calculate the return that each 10,000 has given you over the course of the time of your return. Or you look at rolling return.
You look at three-ear rolling over a 15-ear period. It'll tell you what your investment has done. Compounded annual growth rate can skew a return completely. Take for example a start of April 2020 immediately after the coid9 pandemic the low was hit to September 2024 that return would be vastly different from Jan 2020 or 2019 to June 2026. SIPs allow for the accumulation during periods of drought and as a result of which the SIP return can be very different. Am I right right or wrong?
>> You're right. You're right. depends on the holding period completely >> and depends on how if the market has done badly for two years and then takes off it's great >> but that's when that is the space for SIP investors right if you're going to buy units when the markets continue to rise you're actually buying higher prices but it's only when you buy on the complete J curve that the this whole concept of SIP sort of uh takes place right but everybody has their opinion though I do have one point in favor of that is that yes you cannot take away the shift of uh ownership and then if the shift of ownership is going to retail that's we're talking about the number of folios the number of demat accounts it's >> it's a good thing >> it's a good thing that the finally the Indians are owning our own stock market till now you know I used to cry and my Twitter handle does say that I'm a sad equity seller because Indians are not owning our own market till now the Indians had not made money out of our market going to the retail participation I I'm I'm >> as long as they're making money >> I'm not see both are important Yeah.
>> The foreign money or the institutional money and the data. It has to be a good mix.
>> Otherwise, one part cannot be ruling the whole thing. Then it there's a maker checker, right?
>> No, I think I think we look at it in extremes and especially all of these views come and people are feeling sad.
Suppose we have the same conversation next week and things go the same way. We look at consistency of views on both sides of the market and not exactly when the markets are down. That's that's not >> because tell you what when we go back to 26,000 whether it's next week or a month from now >> maybe the view will not be there >> the the compounded annual growth rate will look different >> shanker has been skeptical always so I don't think he has moved from >> I have nobody to comment on anybody else I I can only speak for myself I mean at the end of the day if somebody is discounting those kind of returns and somebody should just pick up any of those return charts and see what mutual fund or active mutual fund managers across board has done have done over a period of 10, 15, 20 years for investors. Now whether investors are holding it or not, that's separate issue. But that returns are not there, I think it's factually incorrect. My my only point here is that as I see these criticisms, no real alternative is being suggested.
>> FD real estate and gold >> I mean think about >> he asked the question that was suggested.
>> So yeah so so real estate highly illegal.
>> No real alternative in your view but the alternative was suggested. my view.
Okay, I I'll tell you why I'm saying that real estate you account for most people buy this with EMI and so so therefore there's a cost of interest over the course of the life cycle usually 17 to 18 to 20 years right you remove that from the picture you adjust for the maintenance costs that you pay every uh year you adjust for everything that you do to fix put fixtures in your house and post cost uh interest cost you look at your return it's going to be single digit 5 4% >> also Because real estate in a house you live in is not actually an investment in the first place. Shouldn't it's it's it's a commodity of purchasing. But like we said, it's an open platform. We want all views in. We're glad that it's gone viral. We're glad everyone's talking about it and it's good that there is more debate. Uh we we also want to bring in an element on editor's cut from New Delhi uh this week because it's been an important week to understand what the government will be doing next and we'll get Shimi Chri our Delhi bureau chief up uh to talk a bit about it. Uh there there she is. Shimi uh you know we saw the FCNR moves from the Reserve Bank of India what the government has been doing but you have been having so many conversations on record and off record about what's coming next from New Delhi.
What are you picking up?
>> Yeah. So uh Tamina of course the last two weeks have been unusually active uh you know on the policy front and the combination of government and RBI move whether it's on the form of tax cut on the FBI's in GC or FCNR deposit etc clearly to strengthen the India's external position and uh while we see that rupee couldn't hold those gains but uh the optis uh optimism in the government and in the policy makers because that this will perhaps impact the rupee in the coming weeks. So that we need to see definitely but additional measure is something we are hearing clearly uh you know among policy makers which they are working on and those lines are coming from any tax intervention as far as equities are concerned some sort of measures on the tweaking of your FEMA rules to boost further FDIs and the third on the gold policy lot of chatter around that as well to you will see that some form of monetization of gold is also under active consideration. Now these measures of course are on table. Some of the facts I like to bring uh you know to your notice and I'm taking that liberty as far as you know tax intervention on equities are concerned. The views are actually divided. One set of people are saying that this perhaps of course shore up your foreign flows but another views is coming that it could perhaps lead to more selling. So that's where the status is as far as tax uh you know taxation is concerned and the equity intervention is concerned. Now another point which is equally important that policy makers think that this is the right time to have a monetary policy intervention as well as well looking at the Asian countries coming up with like Indonesia rate hikes. So India should also do RBI should also do of course it's not the perview of you know finance ministry it's the purview of RBI. So definitely that is something RBI to take call on.
The third important aspect on the fiscal front and that's also equally important the the entire uh you know kind of focus is shifted from the west Asia crisis to actually weather condition. Uh there are more concern on the impact of El Nino.
the assessment is going on the recalibration on the budget estimation is going on because somewhere there is a direct effect coming on the agriculture on the inflation and that's why PM in every meeting taking stock himself about the preparedness of as far as weather condition is concerned >> shimmy what are you picking up on the biggest buzz which is the >> what about the what about the biggest buzz on the cabinet reshuffle >> so that's I'm coming because of course the convergence of you know the political development and policy is very important ahead of UP assembly election there is a strong strong budge on the cabinet reshuffle and that's coming uh also because some of the cabinet members Raja Sabha tenure is coming to an end and you will see not just the portfolio shifting you will also see some of the new induction new faces in the cabinet is what we are hearing at this point of time so of course the additional measures on table you will see some action coming on there but political development is also playing a very crucial role as far as government policies >> as as as it does so we thought we'll get in some of that Delhi masala as well Delhi flavor as well but let's talk a bit about SpaceX >> I mean I think that whole IPO challenges not just the limits of human imagination in whatc what our future is going to be but also disbelief in terms of just numbers >> personal I feel if one were to put an inventor of our lifetime, it would be Alon Musk. It's my personal opinion and and it's just staggering to see how people are betting on him and the future look and contrast it to mutual fund advice. Past returns are good so everything is good.
>> The turn the amount of money that is being prepared worldwide to put on one individual's dream about the future is incredible. And make no mistake you know when you look at traditionally even people who controlled the seas would dominate business people who controlled railroad would dominate business. People then who control the skies to airways continue to then people who dominated internet control business. The future is people who will dominate space.
>> So you're buying all of those dreams and that you've read you've seen the prospectus and all of the stuff in it.
>> So that's what people are saying they I'm nobody to comment. Look at the figure now. Look at the impact on Bitcoin. Look at the impact on gold and look at finally some amount of FI selling in Korea and please understand the Korean market is owned 40% by FIS Indian selloff has just been 2% and look at the impact so the world is preparing I'm too small a man to even comment right it's staggering to see this happening within our lives and >> would you would you bet the house on SpaceX if you could >> yeah I would as as Mir said we own before I mean the one of the reasons we've done very well in Korean market is because we own SpaceX. Time will tell but there is no doubt on a 10-year basis from here on that people who own a share of space will dominate the world.
There's no doubt or debate on that whether it will be spaces or it'll have some other players but he's the first of the block and he's dared >> what is this 28 trillion TAM.
>> See that's the whole thing when you look at us we are we are limited within our space and look at the monies that are there globally. I mean crazy why SpaceX just see some of the uh uh uh I mean raising of money that is happening globally. I mean one company going and raising a bit which is larger than all our VC uh raising for the last 5 6 years.
>> I mean I mean to be fair to be fair look at the strides that they've already made right you about 15 years back you did not anticipate that a rocket could go up and then come back and land in the same spot. You didn't know that that >> is one is one of portion of the business.
>> Sure. I mean but look at the absurdity.
I mean we are talking about data centers on ground. He's talking about data centers in space.
>> Powered by solar >> has to be something no powered by solar.
>> Look at that. And if that vision >> he's going to mine asteroid >> if if that vision were to be correct that world is completely different. We are talking about manufacturing healthcare. He's talking about space.
Look at the gap. But equally people like Chris Wood have called it the peak of the AI uh exuberance.
>> No, I'm just happy that some parts of AI discussion on cost and all are finally coming in.
>> Right.
>> So there's a reality check.
>> Well, there should be at all point of time, right? And and both sides have to play well.
>> So if this is turning into a bubble and uh if that bubble will burst at some point, isn't SpaceX the bubbliest of them all?
>> See, I'm top tier bubbles.
>> No, no, time will tell. I mean I have now two powerful words I have in my life. Don't conclude like you know when when you look at the steps that are being taken by the government or to attract money. Don't conclude that there is a queue of people waiting outside India just to put their money in. You have to tag that data to see these are good steps great steps. So similarly from a 10ear I do not know the price now is the beginning the IPO starts the beginning of its journey $135 >> but to fact that to say that all indexes have bent their rules to include it in the index which is clear definition something >> it has happened it's a fact they have >> yeah something they know which we don't know >> and our money level to be very honest and then bringing my foot down is too small to actually comment on those kind of money so let's >> we're the of SpaceX But commenting is for free. I can always see that this IS A SHOW THAT COMMENTS. This will >> you're saying in your saying time will tell. Problem is that some of the ideas over there the prospector says it may not ever happen. It'll be several lifes for an average investor or because 30% is retail book in this.
>> Do they have the time for this to tell or they're like you know there seems to be a rocket ship. Let me hang on. my gut and whatever I was in a glo global conference last week there was no doubt or debate in that room that people will give him at least 10 years time >> retail people >> yeah 10 years >> 10 years at least I mean they are ready to bank on him for 10 years because there's nobody else >> who's even doing this who's even speaking this language >> and ultimately people have been rewarded for the patience that they've showed in Tesla right so so there is a precedence to this he's managed to create wealth with Tesla >> and so >> this is unprecedented >> I mean see when we started our careers years in the I mean late late '9s the internet started went through a bubble and then it became part of our life and internet became part >> so you're saying this is something that could happen we just have not been able to see it yet >> yeah maybe maybe something which is beyond our I mean we're making our first I mean we bought two companies the largest two Reliance tying up on the data center and TCS tying up with anthrop so we're also getting into our getting into that >> us and them is a large gap >> yeah SpaceX is in a different orbit and no >> it's exciting I don't I don't care what happens to the share price to be honest. But to see this area unfolding the world moves to the space at at a real retail level is is incredible.
>> Okay. Colony on Mars 1 million people then Elon gets everything happens in the movies. So has already booked his spot.
Okay, that's all the time we have on editors cut. Thank you so much for joining us. Tell us what topics you want to see discussed. We'll be back next week, same time, same place.
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When you say that 15.5 lakh cr is correct and the sebi has only found 3,000 cr that's over 90% error right there. The 15.5 lakh cr revenue which has come in 4 in 4 years is perfectly correct. It is not a processing unit. It is a refining and selling unit. Sebi found spoke to affluence and affluence told them that they have not recorded a single trade with you that Rajes exports is not a client of affluence. So where is that 11,000 crores coming from?
>> The trade is absolutely correct. We have given all the required clarifications to Sebi in this regard.
>> You're directly saying that Seby's finding is wrong. They found that certain numbers of trades have been done from your personal account. I am not telling Sebi's finding is wrong because there has been no finding as yet.
>> Mr. Mata, you've still not answered the question.
>> Sebi has considered the gross profit as the revenue for whatever reason has thought that that is revenue.
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>> I'm delighted to be a chair of such distinguished fellow businessmen, bankers. Um, you know, it's just lovely to, you know, be back on this NDTV uh jury. I have been a fan of NDV for a long time.
>> Many of the uh nominees are extremely close together in terms of what they what they've done. gender parity to be reflected in while we choose leadership as well.
>> It's also important that how they are reshaping the industries. We've got a fantastic jury and we've left all decisions to the wisdom of the jury. Who will >> now you have dark stores where people are you know have this quick commerce format for du di palak you are doing this for fashion >> what we are uh uh building zillow is for urban affluent customers they typically shop offline and postco there's a large amount of customers premium customers who moved online the whole point here is that can I being that offline like delight, touch, feel and the whole shortlisting to shopping journey at home.
>> Explain to me what you guys do, how are you giving all of these experiences to your customers which because a lot of people are selling clothes online.
>> We have a dark store uh we call it style store. It is coll-located with a mall.
We are able to offer the brands which customer is able to see in a mall plus the some D2C brands we are able to deliver those products in 60 to 90 minutes.
>> How is this practically working? People can really take advantage.
>> We obviously had like couple of situations where a customer ordered say 300 odd garments and a single uh order and uh the whole experience at doorstep took like close to 3 4 hours for them to short list. Maybe it was a wedding or something and they wanted to do some gifting but the order converted. So >> So this person bought 300 garments.
>> Uh maybe they retained 30% at least.
>> We have Bhavik and Padma joining in the founders of Zillow. So Zillow is right now delivering only in Mumbai but what it does it gives you fashion choices within 60 minutes. Guys, do you really manage to stick to 60 minutes in Mumbai traffic?
>> By the way, our average delivery time is 45 minutes.
>> Okay. So now you have dark stores where people are, you know, have this quick commerce format for Di Palak. You're doing this for fashion.
>> Yes.
>> Okay. What is this idea and where did it come from? Let's start with that Padma.
>> See uh uh like if you see uh my background, I've spent a sizable amount of time in offline also in digital marketplace, large marketplace. Um so if you look at e-commerce um typically e-commerce thrives on largest selection and deepest pricing that's what e-commerce thrives on and they focus on between 150 to 200 500 million customers. Now what we are uh uh building Zillow is for urban affluent customers. So after working in our organization what I felt like this urban affluent customers mostly concentrated in the metro cities they're not getting the experience which they expect which they >> how do you define an urban affluent customer how what is their average spend what is your definition of >> so imagine an income level of say roughly 30 lakhs plus >> okay >> um that's the urban affluent customers so they typically shop offline >> and uh postcoid there's a large amount of customers customers, premium customers who moved online. But the expectations uh uh because this marketplaces are focusing on large customer base 150 to 500 million.
They're not able to cater to the right uh one they are not able to offer the right selection which is actually sold in offline which is large portion of any brand's revenue. And second the the expectation of shopping uh whether it is uh convenience the offline like uh uh touch and feel experience instant gratification. So explain to me what you guys do. How are you giving all of these experiences to your customers which because a lot of people are selling clothes online you know that.
>> So what we are doing in Zillow is uh fundamentally we have a dark store uh we call it style store. It is colllocated with a mall. So we are able to give customer in the vicinity of say 7 to 10 km selection which is adequate which is not the largest selection which is the with very very intelligent queration. We are able to offer the brands which customer is able to see in a mall plus the some D2C brands which are premium D2C brands customer like them they have started shopping in these brands postcoid we are able to offer those selection so we are able to give them wider choice and we are able to deliver those products in 60 to 90 minutes >> you're not trying to sell cheaper you're trying to sell to customers who want a little bit of a better product and the difference is bhav you're also letting them try it on at home Yeah.
>> Yeah.
>> The whole see the whole insight was that shopping when you when you're doing a digital shopping uh it's not in the right order of how you think shopping.
You typically shortlist few things then you want to try them and then eventually you make a commitment that this is good for me. But what happens in today's digital environment is that you are forced to create a cart which you shop first and then if you don't like it you have to return it. The whole point here is that can I bring that offline like delight touch feel and the whole shortlisting to shopping journey at home and that's what home trials means to us.
It's not just about trying quickly or something but make a digital interface which makes the whole convenience of shortlisting very very easy and then give Exactly.
>> So how is this practically working? I'm ordering 10 garments and I so the delivery person is waiting till I decide to try everything and decide what I want to keep and what I don't want to keep and then I pay for what I want to keep or I've paid for everything in >> you pay after you.
>> Is that working out for you?
>> Yes, >> it it must have been you know people can really take advantage of that.
>> No. Uh that transaction happens in a matter of like 2 hours. So I think uh 99.99% customers uh they won't do fraud basically. So it's a it's a good experience which they are thinking like imagine a trial room is coming to customer's home and they can try they can show it validate it with maybe a sibling or maybe a friend. So I think that is the experience which typically even you get not you're not getting in a offline like store environment you're probably in a long queue all those things.
>> Yeah. And so give me an example of how this has been taken up by customers.
So customers uh you know uh see primarily this is new for them because none of the digital app ever provided something like a home trial experience but from customers point of view this is a big difference this customer as Padma explained is offline first shopper they buy certain >> what if they order a massive amount of clothes >> yeah so we obviously had like couple of situations where a customer ordered maybe say 300 odd garments on a single uh order and the whole experience at doorstep took like close to three four hours for them to shortlist. Maybe it was a wedding or something and they wanted to do some gifting but the order converted. So >> this person bought 300 garments.
>> Uh maybe they retained 30% at least.
>> Okay. Does so you know I recall if I'm not mistaken maybe in the early days of Myntra they were giving this experience of trying at home and you guys have worked in Myntra. So you can tell me if that's wrong or right and it didn't entirely work out. Try and buy is a very very hyper local uh experience. You cannot give it in a uh environment where products are coming from multiple uh sources and at multiple timelines. Try and buy experience when you look at offline the experience is like where you customer take five products to the trial room compare five and then finally choose between say one or two in a hyperlocal environment you can give it.
If you are sourcing from multiple location, multiple cities, coming at multiple days, how will a customer compare those five products? So that's where the experience was breaking and uh uh with a hyper local platform, we are able to basically solve this.
>> Let me go back uh to that kind of origin story. Both of you met at Myntra. You had a company, you were running a company at Myntra acquired and then you were working with them. You were working with Myntra. How long were you working together and is that when this idea came to fruition? See we worked we had a overlap almost like uh five six years in myra and I was still in the flip card group ecosystem. Uh see this idea came from this as I said uh we felt like this postcoid there's sizable amount of premium customers which migrated to uh e-commerce uh post after maybe one two years when offline started opening up they were not getting that kind of selection which typically you see in offline stores. So we felt there is a need for a platform who can actually focus on those kind of selection very curated uh set of uh brands because you cannot overwhelm the customers with lot of choice and ask customer to basically select. So we are trying to build relevancy.
>> No no go go back to that point. You can't overwhelm customers with a lot of choice. Now this is something different because usually the push for any online platform is to give maximum choice. The boast is that you get everything here.
The inventory is massive. You're saying that's not the plan.
>> Yes. So think like a customer when they go to an offline store, they typically see roughly say 15 to 20 products to choose one product. In an online environment with plethora of selection, they still see only 300 products. Now we are creating a platform where with 70 80 products we will be able to convert a customer. So if you can convert a customer with 70 to 80 products why to show two lakh styles in a particular category.
>> See discovery fatigue is the reality customers.
This whole browse as much as you can is not the reality of most of especially the target audience or the target customer we are talking about. Now the customer really need to thrive through this multiple filters. They have a brand preference. They have a color preference. they have a uh silver preference and all of this eventually to you know decide that I need this particular look and after that it takes maybe couple of days 3 days for it to reach me and it may or may not fit me.
So there is a very very pre very very >> you know I would say uh a very large imbalance in the pre- purchase journey where you have to spend this time to decide >> too much mental investment >> correct and after that as well it may not look good on you and hence you have to go through that whole return and discovery cycle again right so yeah >> that's true does it work for you to then be the quickest version or the quickest delivery uh option for customers over a long time because you're doing two things. You're be you're quick and then you are uh elite if I put those two things together. Uh my question is that very large players in fashion marketplaces can also do both. It's a quick problem to fix.
>> So uh so fashion is not something which is required in 10 minutes or even 1 hour >> because yet you're giving it.
>> Yeah. But but we are giving that experience. So that's hygiene. pricing uh speed is hygiene what we are basically giving to the customer is the experience >> it's a razor sha focus on the consumer and what that consumer expects second there is a underlying construct I think we spoke multiple times that we gave offline like selection but what does this mean is an hybrid supply chain network that we have built >> so it's not just style stores or dark stores as you were mentioning we offer the whole the selection in the malls so the the brand stores selection so typically ally if that 200 250 brands that this particular customers love are offered in their completeness in a hybrid network of our own dark stores which will largely host the brands who doesn't have retail presence and then the whole selection the width of the selection that are hosted in the mall near you. So now everything typically 100,000 plus selection is now available to you at 60 minutes kind of reliability and with the home trial experience. Now this is something which is very unique to us at this point.
>> It doesn't answer my question. Someone else can do it fairly quickly.
>> No. So there are a lot of >> straightforward to there are a lot of nuances. Experience you have to understand the customer psyche. You have to build you have to keep on upgrading your experience like the way for example somebody can copy your home experience.
But if you the way you are basically uh delivering that experience will if it is elevated. Yes. Yes. So we are trying to elevate the whole home trial experience.
the way the the delivery staff we call it style runner is interacting with the customers. So I think that is where we will be differentiated searchus call 9300300300 when you say that 15.5 lakh cr is correct and the sebi has only found 3,000 cr that's over 90% error right there 15.5 lakh cr revenue which has come in four in four years is perfectly correct. It is not a processing unit. It is a refining and selling unit.
>> Sebi found spoke to affluence and affluence told them that they have not recorded a single trade with you that Rajes exports is not a client of affluence. So where is that 11,000 crores coming from?
>> The trade is absolutely correct. We have given all the required clarifications to Sebi in this regard.
>> You're directly saying that Seby's finding is wrong. They found that certain numbers of trades have been done from your personal account.
>> I am not telling Seb's finding is wrong because there has been no finding as yet.
>> Mr. Ma, you still not answered the question.
>> Sebi has considered the gross profit as the revenue for whatever reason has thought that that is revenue. But how can a communication error last 2.5 years?
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>> What has been the response so far?
You're 10 months. How many pin codes are you in right now? You're just in Mumbai I believe >> live only in Mumbai.
>> Live only in Mumbai. So how many loca locations in Mumbai? What is the size of the inventory and uh what has been the size of funding interest that has come in?
>> So uh we have raised u uh roughly $20 million in the last uh one year and uh it's a 10-month old platform. We have uh roughly five D stores uh we call it style stores and we are also connecting the brand stores. Um um so this is what we almost live in major pin codes where our TG resides. So maybe 85% of the pin codes we are delivering in say 60 minutes time. So that's where we are at.
We are as a platform we are growing month on month at a certain pace. We believe key >> what phase is that?
>> So maybe uh maybe roughly 25 to 30% month on month we are growing consistently >> in in in order values or order quantum.
Yes, in order in terms of revenue it will be slightly higher. Uh but what we are basically trying to do is to perfect the experience. uh once this template is perfected we can basically add more cities and and and by the way first we want to go deep into Mumbai as a city before adding more cities but uh >> but that's the plan to eventually add more >> think eventually yes absolutely right as you said we are a platform for urban city our ambition is to build take a large pile of >> top eight cities top eight cities large >> top eight cities in maybe next two to three years is how you can think of it >> yeah but I think as Pa was saying the like we underestimate the power of a single city like a Bombay right like or a Mumbai >> uh a we call it Malar catchment but think of it like from Anderi to say Daiser >> there are four malls now in that one catchment itself right close to billion dollar worth of fashion gets sold in that one catchment alone >> you're at that phase I suppose in in your company's um journey where you're still going out and making pitches and explaining your story to possible investors are you and what what are you telling them. What have those initial reactions been like when you first went out with the story?
>> It started with lot of rejections. Uh but it was like you have to uh show your conviction. Uh like for example, a lot of investors initially said dark store only model will work because that's where you have a control on the whole experience.
>> What was the most the recurring question you faced in your init initial phase when you know you're going out and raising funds etc. What was the biggest doubt or recurring question? I think the recurring question was uh fashion is not a high frequent category and quick commerce thrives on frequency purchase frequency. Uh but see uh fashion there is lot of spikes any high intent days like a a festival or occasion or celebration say birthday or wedding there is lot of spikes so in a year's time you need to basically look at how the purchase frequency will be and second fashion is also a high a category like the ASPs are higher the margins are higher so everything unit economics will also work the other question which we get very frequently is why Mumbai And I think that's a that's a actual Mumbai because both of you are from here. No actually it was not the insight came obviously Padma had a very deep insight on this. See obviously digital penetration Bangalore wins any day. Most of the newer startups would imagine starting in Bangalore but we really felt that the real fashion if you look at the market size or the whole market in a hierarchy of where fashion is sold uh Mumbai probably will rank higher than any other market. Right. So, so we want >> Thank you. We also need some startups in this city. Having said that, you you want to eventually move further right into into other cities as well. How will you solve for uh things like a wider variety over time, getting more brands on and also profitability? Is this u model or or this business model that you have uh enough to actually make money?
Because with all new businesses and ideas, there's a leap of faith initially, right?
I think that time has also changed.
People want to see visibility on Yeah.
You you have to basically uh demonstrate that and keep on improving. End of the tunnel obviously people have to see. See we are like where are you in the tunnel right now?
>> No we are uh we are in the right direction I would say. Uh so look at uh the selection the customer which we have chosen which is urban affluent. They buy branded fashion. Branded fashion mostly mass premium plus is where average selling price is slightly higher. Uh a >> what is your ASP right now? Average selling price >> uh it's roughly 1,500 rupees. Okay.
>> And AOVs are also very good because you are able to sell more uh to the customers. U so your AOV and fashion being a high margin category net net you'll be able to make decent amount of uh margin uh to recover all your last mile cost and in fact also recover CAC at some point. So >> do you have a clear path to profitability 10 months in?
>> No. No. Uh uh fashion or consumer internet is a business where you need to actually uh penetrate the pen uh like market share is a very very important thing. So there will be profitability.
The path to profitability might take some time because you want to be a significant player and not a small player and deliver profitability. So you have to I would say optimize profitability to maximize topline right now. But if I have to just answer like to like like store level profitability maybe 10 12 months down every store becomes profitable. So at a store level yes definitely >> I think in a sense maybe the the phase at which you are starting your company is also a good one to keep you disciplined in that sense because like I said I'm sure appetite for long waiting times may have reduced from an investor perspective. Is that something that you're seeing over this whole journey? I mean you've you've done you're not doing this twice over. So are you seeing a big change in what the investment climate was then and now? I think one is investment. Second the capital required to build a billion dollar. So for example you know somebody who built back in say 2010 phase of the country they would need significantly high capital to build a billion dollar business. Visav somebody who is starting now can build a much more efficient capital.
>> Why is that?
>> The efficiency comes through how technology is built digital penetration already in the market infrastructure already been created in terms of logistics. um in general uh adoption of new technologies, newer so AI itself is driving a lot of efficiency like we use AI in almost every area of our business.
So all of this makes sure that and as Punma said the kind of market or the time we have chosen that market itself has a decent u uh I would say uh uh there is a certain margin profile which ensures that the money keeps coming back into the business. You don't need that kind of capital. H uh what is the kind of uh difference that AI will make to the way people shop and consume over time and what are you already seeing happening right now in the business?
>> See uh I think every not just fashion in general AI is now becoming the first layer of consultation for everyone. Now it could be a smallest decision of what do I wear to you know how do I hire. So everything is now first uh you know the first question is asked to the AI and then AI helps us to brainstorm frame our mindset the large the larger trend we are seeing a lot of people are actually creating looks on say some of the dominant AI players like cloud or charity and then trying to search exactly same look on the e-commerce platform >> what do you think is going to be one big prediction which changes the way people consume fashion with the trends you've seen so far >> see uh I think uh earlier people like especially With e-commerce adoption, uh people used to plan a lot of things. In my view, similar to what's happening in grocery, same thing will pan out in fashion also. People will not plan uh they will they will if they will have access to the kind of selection they want. Uh they'll be able to purchase uh instantly. The other trend we are seeing in you know very very very similar to I think the grocery quickcommerce example Pakma gave was think of indulgence you know for example you need an ice cream and it was not accessible like say 7 years 5 years back because you have to really walk out and shop something and now because it's available in 10 minutes that unfulfilled demand is now getting fulfilled and that's exactly what happens for example on a Diwali day on a Valentine day like I re the significant amount of customers shop two times in a single day with us. Now, that was an unfulfilled demand, right? Like >> they're coming for your wallet.
>> So, basically, instead of going into your cupboard and saying, "Chello, I'll find something to wear." You don't need to do that anymore. So, you're saying, "I'll buy something new."
>> Interesting. Okay. Thank you so much for coming in today. This has been uh a very insightful chat and an understanding on how the fashion business is moving. And like I said, you're our youngest company on the show so far. So, best of luck with with everything that comes ahead.
Thank you Dana for Dana for having us. I think uh it's been an incredible conversation with you and uh really looking forward to it.
call 9300300300 India Inc.'s most respected names chose India's best and brightest >> these kind of awards and you know during lineup you're truly giving it the right weightage I think it's uh heartening to see talent that there is in across uh India inc we should be awarding companies and individuals who have focused not only on growth but also on bringing good governance the jury and vote on the people, the men, the women, the companies in India who have the right stuff is a great opportunity for us.
>> For us, the biggest thing is trust.
That's what we provide. We need leaders in India that can help take India being a global superpower.
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>> Hi, I'm Tamana. Watch me on NDTV Profit where I break down the day's biggest business.
when the union budget of uh this year was presented right before that uh the government spoke of the economy being in a goldilocks period low inflation high growth. talk about uh things going wrong because four weeks after that the war started a war which at this moment we seem to have no idea about whether it is ending has ended will end will never end when will it end we don't quite know and therefore in this massive economic turbulence navigating the economic ship is amongst the toughest thing one can have to do what's the diagnosis at this moment how much of the typhoon has the economy dealt with how much lies out in the future and what's the time frame? Do things get worse in days, weeks, months, or do they not get bad at all? To talk about this, I'm joined by the man who's in the unenviable position of having to predict multiple unknowns all at the same time. Can we have a round of applause for Dr. Anand Nageshwan. Thank you very much, sir.
>> Thank you.
>> And welcome to NDTV Ignite. It's great to have you with us.
When people look at the economic situation at this moment, they wonder is this the worst? Is the worst behind us?
Is the worst ahead of us? How far ahead of us is the worst when it comes to uh the growth trajectory of the Indian economy? So, let's kick off from there.
Thank you Rahul. I think in your initial context setting remarks, you had a very multi-layered statement to make. Why February 1st? In fact, I would even say February 27th evening together with the secretary ministry of statistics uh we were releasing the new GDP series and I was saying look I'm upgrading my GDP growth projection for FI27 uh from 6.8 to 7.2 range. I I was upgrading it to between 7 and 7.4. It might sound like a trivial change but I was removing the six angle completely but then next morning everything changed. Uh so look we still have large unknown unknowns especially the Elnino effect on the monsoon etc. But having said that I would say um now in the last 1 week or so I'm beginning to breathe a little easier. I can see a glimpse of the possibility of India kind of having seen the worst uh in terms of potential impact of the ongoing conflict. So I wouldn't have felt this way in April or May. But now I'm beginning to think that with the measures put in place uh on Friday the 5th of June and considering how the oil prices behave so far and how the fertilizer prices are moving right now, I have a feeling that we may be able to handle FY27 uh much better than what we may have feared in April or May. You know, when we spoke after your economic survey, right, >> I said you were being overly conservative. I now think you're being overly optimistic. Are you trying to talk up spirits because you're saying that the worst is behind us? I'm not sure. Try and explain why. And you're saying that we will do well when so much is going wrong. Why do you think we'll do well?
>> I think uh you are right to push me back, Rahul. But I was making a relative statement. I think if I said I didn't say I am I am confident of saying I'm confident of our economy doing better than what I thought on February 27th.
That's not what I said. I said compared to what I may have feared in April and May, I'm I'm I'm beginning to breathe a little easier. So, I was kind of hedging myself still and you still want to push me back. Uh but I think uh I still concede the big >> No, you'll have to explain this because you're saying that you're feeling better now than you were in April. I'll I'll give you >> explain that because a lot of the economic writing that's coming out of different think tanks, different banks, economists, they're saying that the actual impact of the turbulence of the past 100 days will be felt in the quarters ahead of us. So what makes you think that the worst is behind us? First of all, let me uh there are multiple answers to your point. First, we are going to have a GDP estimate of 7.7 for last year FI26 and RBI has come up with 6.6. six which is a 1.1 percentage point lower than last year with a downside risk attached to it. I still stand by that. I think that's a fair characterization. And then RBI says 5.1% inflation with an upside risk attached to it. That's also correct. So we are going to see the impact in terms of higher inflation and lower growth compared to last year. It's about the magnitude of the impact there. I am beginning to breathe a little easier and that reason is I think oil price has behaved far better than anybody might have anticipated given this blockade and given the conflict because a there is excess supply coming from the strategic petroleum reserve of the US and other countries and China's demand has been extremely low. China has been buying far less oil than they used to. And then look at the second besides oil. The second biggest impact on us would have been the fertilizer price and ura prices today are lower than what they were even before the conflict began. That would have been a huge hole in our fiscal budget in the cost of uh you know cultivation. Lot of things would have had a sort of a chain effect chain reaction based on that. That is also now seems to be under very much under control. And the third reason is on Friday the 5th of June we took some actions on the balance of payment side through uh bond market withholding tax capital gains tax exemptions on sovereign bonds and RBI's FCNRB scheme.
And fourthly I took a very close look at the way we our oil import behaved in 2223 when the Russia Ukraine war started.
That year our oil import quantity went up by 8 to 9%. And the price also went up was remaining above 100 for 5 to 6 months and yet the current account deficit went to only about 2.2% of GDP.
Now if the fertilizer price had not come back all the way before the pre below the pre-conlict level, I wouldn't be sounding this much more relaxed than uh than I am. But it is precisely the behavior of the oil price until now and the ura price decline and the action we took uh on June 5th. I think all these things are making me breathe a little easier compared to >> whether this is true or not we will know in some time but the fact that the economic adviser who's I've seen clearly very conservative in terms of his forecasting thinking that the worst is behind us is a significant point that you're making. explain what you imagine to be the role of China in stabilizing uh oil prices and helping ura prices actually come down.
>> Is this happening because China is trying to play the role of the emergent superpower or does it reflect deep underlying distress in the Chinese economy because of which they simply don't have enough ura consumption of their own which is why they're exporting?
>> No, I think whether they are playing the emerging superpower or not is beyond my pay grade to speculate on but Definitely I think the domestic economic uh stagnation that continues in their economy is playing probably a big role in the reduction in their crude oil import. Uh I mean of course they they they did play a stabilizing role in the 9798 Asian crisis and then in in 2008 global financial crisis as well they did play a stabilizing role. So it could very well be possible that they are playing a conscious stabilizing role which I can't rule out. But that said, I would probably attach greater weight to the possibility that their continued domestic economic stagnation is playing a very big part in bringing their oil price down and also opening up the uh URA market for for for export. But be that as it may, regardless of what the underlying cost is, both are helping uh the Indian economy and our own external situation quite considerably. At this point we've seen about a 7 1/2 rupee pass through on petrol and diesel prices from the oil marketing companies to Indian consumers. Dr. Nagish according to you how much more of a pass through is required or likely in the days and weeks ahead. So how much more is required of course will depend on the evolution of the oil price going forward. Even now we can say that by rising them by 72 rupees we have covered up to the last year's average price for India was $68.7 per barrel. So these increases have taken us up to let's say a price of $85 per barrel. So even now with the with the with the likely evolution of the oil price this year which is as of now taking April and May actual that India actually paid which is in triple digits but assuming that the oil prices behave the way the financial markets are discounting now the fullear price may be close to about 88 89 and we are not too far away from what we have passed through. So what we may need to pass through further may not be that big provided oil prices confirm to what the financial markets are currently discounting. What impact according to you has this war had from what you can see we see the data that's in the public you're seeing things from more closely on private consumption and potentially on corporate taxation given that there is a very real concern about companies pulling back on account of contracting demand.
>> Sure. First reaction is I think it is still early days given that we only have one month of fiscal data for current financial year to talk about the corporate tax revenue or personal consumption, personal taxation etc. But having said that it is encouraging again one more reason for my relative calmness so to speak. Uh we have had two months of data March and April after the conflict began. High frequency indicators have shown that the uh uh domestic demand is holding up very well and and that could naturally mean better revenues for the corporates and you know very well that the fourth quarter of the last financial year profitability also turned up for the Indian corporates and then the other good news is that um the nominal GDP growth which we assumed in the budget to be around only 10.1% is more likely to be 12% this year rather than 10.1 which is 2% percentage points higher and that also means better uh revenue compensation than what we may have assumed. So even if the buoyancy were to go down a little because of economic uncertaintity the higher base the nominal GDP growth will compensate for a lower buoyancy. So that is why I think we may not have to be unduly pessimistic on the revenue front.
Some of the economic forecasts that are coming on the downside are now beginning to talk about whether we could slip uh potentially even to a 5 something 5.9 or whatever. You're still holding out at 6.6.
How certain or with what degree of certainty do you feel that we're likely to be in the upper part of the six bracket and not inching towards the lower part of the six?
below six is possible if the uh if the conflict continues and if the production shut in of the oil market continues and then let's say China's uh lower import stops at some point and the United States decides that its strategic petroleum reserve has come down to a level where they have to refill it etc and if the oil price starts ruling to the north of 100 in the second half of the Indian financial year then an outcome of GDP below 6% is possible but right now if you ask me I would say a characterization by the central bank of 6.6 with a downside risk attached to it which could be somewhere between 20 to 30 basis points on the downside I think that is more realistic to me as things stand Searchus call 9300300300 when you say that 15.5 lakh cr is correct and the sebi has only found 3,000 cr that's over 90% error right there.
>> The 15.5 lakh cr revenue which has come in for in 4 years is perfectly correct.
It is not a processing unit. It is a refining and selling unit. Sebi found spoke to affluence and affluence told them that they have not recorded a single trade with you that Rajes exports is not a client of affluence. So where is that 11,000 crores coming from?
>> The trade is absolutely correct. We have given all the required clarifications to Sebi in this regard.
>> You're directly saying that Seby's finding is wrong. They found that certain numbers of trades have been done from your personal account.
>> I am not telling Sebi's finding is wrong because there has been no finding as yet.
>> Mr. Mata, you've still not answered the question. SB has considered the gross profit as the revenue for whatever reason has thought that that is revenue.
>> But how can a communication error last 2.5 years?
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>> India Inc.'s most respected names chose What impact so far has this war had on the desire of Indian companies to invest? Because you, not just you, the finance minister, the prime minister, everyone in government has been trying to talk up India Inc., asking them, exhorting them to go out and invest more in the Indian economy. Again, given the capacity utilization numbers that we saw, there were some signs that this was beginning to pick up in a realistic way, which could have given us a 5-year virtuous cycle. Um, given that this war is now upon us and the uncertainty that it creates, are you again fearful that the groundwork that you've done, you know, a break has been slammed on it?
Uh, again, sorry, I we we can't speculate because we don't have the data. That's one of the important data gaps in this country faces where we don't get quarterly frequency on how the capital formation in the private sector is happening in the country. But uh that said look if you look at the overall capital formation rate it's about 32% of GDP in the economy which compared to many other countries in Asia it's actually on the high side given the level of uh uncertaintities in the world. And secondly, uh the CI keeps sharing bottom-up data on corporate investment and they say that the listed companies in general are actually investing beginning to invest a lot more than what they used to do until about FI24 or so. So they are saying that uh from the second half of FI25 continuing into FI26 listed companies have ramped up their investments. So obviously this war uh uh definitely would have made them pause a little bit but there are compensating factors for us which is the trade agreement with the UK, trade agreement with the European Union and the renewed interest in European Union in terms of diversifying from you know dependence on China etc. I think there are other compensating factors that are coming into play which might offset the uncertainty caused by the war.
Therefore, it is difficult for me to speculate beyond this on what the magnitudes will be because we don't have the data. But there are compensating factors.
>> You're speaking of compensating factors.
Let me counter argue that these free trade agreements potentially create the pos prospects of further imports coming into India from these advanced economies with which we're now either signed up or signing free trade agreements without our manufacturing being competitive enough at this moment. So it could actually work in converse as well because one of the experts who came to ignite in the morning. The argument that he was making was that a free trade agreement at a time of relative calm and of growth is one thing. Given that these agreements are being signed at this moment when there is uncertainty all the products from countries like New Zealand, Canada, elsewhere, United States once that deal concludes could start coming into the union markets creating further trouble for Indian corporates. No, no, no. If there are going to be imports coming from a region with whom we have signed a free trade agreement, obviously those imports are coming in from there in lie of where else they might have come from and that would mean that we are getting them at a lower price only than our businesses would substitute for them that still means lower landing lower landed cost.
So even if those imports pick up from those regions I am sure it is because in le of some other source and therefore I wouldn't consider that as a negative. I would consider as a positive. If you are importing equipment from country A and now country B is your free trade agreement partner and the duties have dropped to zero and therefore it has become more competitive then please tell me that my input costs have gone up.
Unfortunately no. What about products coming in for the use of consumers which potentially may have been buying from Indian companies then buying from companies from now you have an FD.
>> Most of our imports are mainly infrastructure and intermediate goods.
So you have to get into the weeds of the imports to be able to make such definitive statements. And secondly, both UK and the EU agreement are giving us a lot of opportunity in terms of labor intensive manufacturing and services opening up those markets which were closed earlier and to that extent those businesses especially the medium enterprises ones now have an incentive to ramp up that investment to be able to meet the norms set by those countries.
So I think on balance our imported goods will become less costlier if you are sourcing it from a free FDA agreement country and the market opening that we have got for labor intensive goods and services will be incrementally positive.
I think it is somewhat uh in my opinion uh somewhat a stretch of an argument to say that this could be actually negative. You know let's you spoke of data which we don't get. Let's speak for a moment for data that we do get and I want to take unemployment numbers. The headline numbers from the PLFS says that you know the periodic labor force says that unemployment headline unemployment is 3.2%. When people look at that and just anecdotally and they look around India having an unemployment headline number of 3.2 just intuitively and instinctively feels to be an underassessment. So that that I think people have to separate both involuntary and voluntary unemployment because uh what what the unemployment rate measures there are there is a usual status there is a weekly status so it depends on the kind of questions people ask and second if you are been looking for work and if you are willing to take up whatever work that is offered to you and yet you are not employed then you are counting as unemployed. So it depends on the way the people are choosing to remain unemployed. If there is a lot of voluntary involuntary unemployment then that you may see that lot of people are unemployed but you don't know whether they're voluntary or involuntary. Okay, involuntary ones will count but if you're voluntarily unemployed it won't count. So you may you may on on on the streets if you encounter some 20 people who could have been employed but are not you have to find out which one is voluntary which one is involuntary. That is why your anecdotal uh uh evidence and what statistical evidence presents you may appear somewhat uh disconnected. And secondly, I think uh we are not doing as good a job as we can yet and it is a question of data improvement. We are not measuring the gig economy work as well as we do. Uh I think a lot of people are taking uh not being part of a formal workforce but still having two or three jobs because they feel the flexibility suits them. I think we are not doing as good a job of measuring them etc. And at the end of the day, it is still true that notwithstanding all these question marks in people's heads about employment, household incomes have been growing much better than what people have been expecting given this kind of a anecdotal perception on employment. So I think on balance, given the kind of uncertaintities that is there in the world, I think the employment picture as revealed by the PLFS is an accurate one.
One of the government's big promises has been that India will become a vixit bat by 2047.
Now this fundamentally requires growth to be above 8% for two decades and more for us to be able to achieve it. Now we've seen uh for 2 years growth being less than 8% and this year somewhere around 6.6% maybe lower. Does this war just make that much tougher the already very difficult task of India becoming a developed country by 2047 and does it exacerbate the risk of India getting caught in a middle income trap look uh the obviously every year where the growth rate doesn't meet a particular level that you think is required first of all I don't think it necessarily true that you need to grow at 8% in real terms in Indian rupees over the next 25 years for you to get to the vixit bar status.
>> What are your calculations?
>> So in fact a growth rate of between 6 and a half and 7% in real terms in Indian rupee and that too need not it cannot continue until 2047 because by definition as the base becomes larger and larger the growth rate will taper off. So up to 2035 if you're able to grow on average between 6 and a half and 7 and after that if it tapers ultimately in dollar terms you also have to take into account the inflation rate that will prevail in the United States. That is what so basically the way you calculate your dollar GDP is uh growth rate in dollar GDP is Indian real growth rate plus the United States inflation rate will give you the Indian GDP in dollar terms. Now many developed countries are suffering from high public debt and therefore there is a possibility of inflation tolerance in those countries in the coming years in order to bring down the debt that is how they brought down their debt among other things after the end of World War II. So given all of that even if your growth rate after being at 6 1/2 to 7 for a decade and then tapers off to below six and then tapers off further in 2040s to below to around 5 and a half%. If the US inflation rate is averaging between 3 and 4% then your ability to achieve the figure of between 25 and $30 trillion of GDP is possible. And philosophically I will also add that at the end of the day we have to keep doing whatever is in our control in order to get that goal but exogenous factors can always either aid you or hamper you that's not in your control.
>> Do you feel sometimes unlucky? Because there are two things this government did. One is when corporate taxes were were reduced soon after COVID happened.
Now you rationalize GST in a big way again the government implementing the policy maneuver that it could and soon after the war happens just when you expect a takeoff.
>> That's a very good question Rahul. I think in general we should not rule out the role of luck in outcomes and I think it's usually human nature is to attribute it to oneself if it succeeds and attribute it to bad luck if it doesn't. So I think uh but beyond a point that's also exogenous you have to take it as it comes but we have to keep plugging away and I'm sure one day the luck also will turn for example from 20145 onwards when the government came to office initially there were deficient monsoons but then we also enjoyed a very sharp decline in the energy price in the global crude oil price. So as the government was dealing with the aftermath of the banking NPA crisis and deficient monsoons and trying to fix the fiscal deficit which was high when they inherited it the uh the decline in energy prices helped. So that is a good fortune. So similarly I'm sure >> while we had a run of good monsoons for a few years we now potentially face a super Elnino, >> right?
>> How worried are you? Does that keep you awake at night? and explain to those watching at this moment the impact you think a super elino could have on agriculture production and on the large economy. No, I mean when I said uh I I was uh I was relatively slightly breathing easier compared to April May but still there are two big unknowns. I said one is the energy price going forward and second is this uh is the effect of El Nino becoming a super Elnino. I think the karif crop should do well especially the cereals pulses and oil seeds I don't know enough they may have an impact but more than the karif crop the real impact could be in the next ry crop because the super elino will probably be felt towards the latter half of the calendar year it may not be felt during the current monsoon season but yes uh to the extent >> how is the government preparing for that scenario >> I think the government is obviously assessing the reservoir levels the stock levels of fertilizers and how much is sewing happening and whether uh there is enough. So uh like in the previous situ uh such situations it is the management of inventory, management of export and import ensuring adequate quantities and domestic inflation not rising etc. Apart from ensuring water resources and luckily for us the reserve >> are we prepared to deal with the super elino according to you? uh I I don't have the information to say whether we are prepared or not but I can say reservoir levels are 23% higher than what they were last year and the sewing by the farmers who are aware of the uh projections by the IMD both in April and May the sewings have been much healthier than last year. So the farmers seem to be assessing that given the stock of fertilizers and given the stock of uh given the reservoir levels they feel that they can handle the impact of the super elino on the karif crop output.
That much confidence we can say >> India Inc.'s most respected names chose India's best and brightest >> these kind of awards and you know during lineup we are truly giving it the right weightage I think it's uh heartening to see talent that there is in across uh India inc we should be awarding companies and individuals who have focused not only on growth but also on bringing good governance the jury and vote on the people, the men, the women, the companies in India who have the right stuff is a great opportunity for us.
>> For us, the biggest thing is trust.
That's what we provide. We need leaders in India that can help take India being a global superpower.
>> We got a fantastic jury and we've left all decisions to the wisdom of the jury.
>> Who will earn India's top business honors? Find out at the NDTV Profit Business Leadership Awards coming soon.
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>> Hi, I'm Tamana. Watch me on NDTV Profit where I break down the day's biggest business stories. What happened, why it matters, and what it means for your money.
>> Hi, I'm Nid Sha.
If I were to ask you about risk in investing, what's the first thing that comes to mind? You're probably thinking about the stock market, about equities and a sharp sudden fall. Some of you who have seen cycles in the property markets may even think about the risks of sharp drops in real estate prices. Remember the 2000s? And also the risk of prices staying stagnant for long periods of time. That's something that you've probably experienced as well. But I'd guess that the number would be substantially lower than the first cohort. And I would be willing to bet that most of you would not think about risks in the bond market. It's not something we speak about very often. But the reason I want to talk about it today is that more and more people are finding ease of access. Investors are gravitating towards investing in corporate bonds. They're looking at applications on their mobile phones and they're seeing 10 to 11 or even 12% interest rates and they're jumping right in. This is an individual securities.
So, is there a risk? Is it too good to be true? This is moneywise on NDTV Profit. My name is Alex Matthew and my guest today is somebody who picks and chooses these bonds to form a portfolio for a job. He is Dal Dalal, the CIO of fixed income at Edelwise Mutual Fund.
Dal, thanks so much for taking the time.
>> Thanks for having me.
>> So, uh I think a lot of people that I speak to in the bond markets tend to agree that uh their work and their business is not as exciting as the equity side.
>> Absolutely.
>> But what do you like about it? No, in fact uh I've been in the bond market for last 30 years and it's always looking at cycles macroeconomic cycles affecting bond markets and generating returns for the clients. That is what is exciting for us. Okay. But if I were to ask you some of your greatest learnings from this 30 years and when you started out as a brighteyed fresher in the bond markets and uh I'm pretty sure that you learned all of these concepts in in college and you were looking at the practical side of it. What have you learned over the course of the last 30 years and I'm not obviously asking you to sum it up but a few things. No, I think uh there are number of learnings and number one is to understand the fundamentals of the economy because that is what shapes the interest rate cycle for us. The second most important learning is about the credit risk >> because it's very easy to invest but understanding the credit risk underlying the fundamentals of the company the businesses promoters a number of things I think that is the biggest learning for us because in normal course of the day we normally get carried away by looking at the normal stuff like what is a coupon what is a bond what is the industry what is the maturity and other stuff but understanding deep down inside the company's fun functioning uh what are the vulnerabilities where are the accesses what are the risk I think that these are some of the important learnings for us >> I'm going to start with the absolute basics dal for somebody who does not understand what a bond is >> what is a coupon what is a maturity what is a yield to maturity all of these things they don't understand anything so I'm going to start I'm going to represent them dal so that they understand at the end of the organization they should not have questions. First what is a bond? The bond basically is an instrument which basically if you suppose you buy a three-year bond that means you are paying the money you are buying the bond right now paying the money to the issuer I propose >> who's the issuer >> issuer could be any company who's raising money number of companies who are now approaching this online bond platforms >> so suppose an company like XYZ >> who's raising a three-year money from the investors it's a 9% coupon >> okay >> uh and and so if investors are buying those bonds of for say 1 lakh rupees >> right >> then at 9% coupon that means the investors will be eligible to get a 9,000 rupees annual interest payment every year.
>> Mhm.
>> For for year 1, year two and year three >> and on third year along with the 9,000 rupees they will get the principal back.
Is it so when you said the coupon the coupon is essentially the the interest rate that is committed by the issuer. So XYZ company has said I would like to borrow some money from you. I'm willing to pay you. It's like the bank giving you money for a home loan and saying I will charge you 7 12% or 8% per year for 25 years effectively that 7 12% is the coupon.
>> Absolutely >> right. Equ is it always annual or can it be semiannual?
>> Most of the corporate bonds pay annual coupon. Uh so and and the government also has bonds right which is the government bond market.
>> Yeah. Government bonds pay semiannually twice a year.
>> Okay. Uh and uh anything above one year is called a bond. Anything below one year is called something else.
>> So anything below one year is normally called money market instruments.
>> Right? But these are also instruments that are debt instruments. They have a coupon payment as well. Right?
>> Generally speaking money markets are all discounted instruments. So you pay lesser amount and you get maturity full amount.
>> Explain that simple concept.
>> So for example, if you are buying a one year uh commercial paper hypothetically >> which is issued by a company >> by a company right at at say 9% interest or 10% interest you will pay 90 rupees today.
>> Yeah.
>> And and you will get 100 rupees at the end of the one year. That's a discounted instrument.
>> Understood. Okay. So, so there are these two uh broad distinctions that are made.
Now, when people say yield to maturity, what do they mean by it?
>> The yield to maturity basically is that's a mathematical formula, but simply speaking, it's the coupon divided by the price.
>> Okay. So, >> at any given point of time, >> at not at any point of time. So, just to give you an example, suppose you bought a bond at 10 rupees, 10% coupon at bar.
So that means the yield to maturity of that bond is also 10%. Because 10 divided by 100.
>> Yeah.
>> Now assuming that after your purchase the price of this bond goes up by say 105 that means the bond is trading at a premium. Now that premium has to be reflected in in yield to maturity and that based on the maturity profile of that bond you will probably be able to calculate that the yield to maturity of that bond now say the bond is trading at premium is now below 10. Uh understood obviously. So and here's where the risk comes into play, right? So you've kind of described what what the bond is.
You've described money market instruments. Now what you described is positive from the perspective of an investor who is holding that bond. And you say that the price of the bond has gone from 100 to 105.
What are the possible reasons why that bond and let's assume that this is a 10-year bond it's trading at 105 the face value was 100 right so it's trading at a 5% premium to face value what are the potential reasons why that could have happened >> so there are broadly two reasons number one is that if in case after your purchase if the terminal term structure of interest rates decline >> that is in the ind in the in the economy so for example if RBI embarks on rate cutting cycle >> and if the rates decline >> so at that point of time the same issuer will be able to raise 10-year money at a lower coupon than what the previous bond was issued at say 10%.
>> Yeah.
>> So as a result of that now the 10% coupon bond is now trading at a premium.
>> Sure.
>> That's reason number one. The second potential reason could be the credit rating upgrade that when the company issued the 10% bond for 10 year and if suppose that credit rating goes double A and subsequently if the credit rating is upgrade from double A to double A plus then you could probably see that the bond is trading at a premium because now uh the market participants perceive that because of the credit rating upgrade uh the issuer will be able to raise money cheaper >> because the perceived risk of credit default is declined And and that is the second part of risk which we will talk about but um it might be a very basic question Dul but suppose in this scenario that you've described right XYZ company has raised a 10-year paper or 10ear bond at 10%. Subsequent to that the interest rates in the system the RBI has cut the interest rates. So therefore if I have bought that I'm sitting with 10% I've paid 100 rupees per bond and everybody else is looking at me and saying he has a better bond than I do or that I will be able to buy. But what is the reason why somebody would want to buy my bond? Is it only because the coupon is more?
>> Yes, that's number one. Or or generally speaking that if that company has stopped issuing bonds.
>> Ah >> right.
>> So scarcity premium.
>> Yes. So in such situation people will say okay uh if I am not able to get the new bond for 10 year from this company XYZ that I have really studied and and analyzed then who else has this bond and whether they're willing to sell >> okay and now for example there is also a pos that's also another point that if the company XYZ now says I had issued this bond earlier at say 10% >> annual now I would like to issue after RBI has cut rates I would like to issue this bond at say 9%.
>> Okay.
>> Okay. And now that means if the new bond is coming at 9% then perhaps a potential buyer will say that is there a better seller in the market and at that point of time the person who's holding a 10% coupon bond and if it needs liquidity or for whatever reason if he's willing to offer that same bond at a slightly higher yield to maturity than the 9% coupon.
>> Ah okay that's interesting.
>> Yeah. So that's how the secondary market trades happen.
>> Okay. So we've described a scenario which is positive from the perspective of the investor that is holding this 10% bond. Now what if the opposite happens?
>> Absolutely it can happen.
>> That is where the risk occurs, right?
And we're in a scenario today where interest rates have been low and stable for some time. But we expect that at some point the RBI might have to and we'll come to that in a bit. But the RBI might have to step in and raise the interest rates. Absolutely.
>> What happens to existing holders of bonds in that situation?
>> So in a situation where RBI is in the process of hiking rates and if you have purchased a bond of an 8% coupon.
>> Yeah.
>> Now assuming that the investor has purchased this bond with a hold to maturity view and and for that 3 year or 5 year tenure and if they are not looking to sell this bond then they are not affected. it the only affected issue is uh the potential new supply coming at a higher coupon. So you have a a perceived mark to market risk.
>> So this is something that a lot of people don't understand double. So I invite you to explain this right >> to say that it's and it's not necessarily comparable to the equity market but it's like saying that you bought a share at 100 rupees it has fallen by 10% so it's now trading at 90 rupees and on your screen it is visible to you at 90 rupees but if you sell that you book what is a notional loss >> and it becomes a real loss.
>> Absolutely.
>> Right. In this case, it's slightly different because somebody has borrowed money from you. You have lent 100 rupees. They have committed to pay you 10% or 8% in your analogy.
>> And you have the option of not selling that.
>> Absolutely.
>> You can hold on till the time when that borrow with the borrower has committed to give your money back and they have to keep giving you 8%.
>> Absolutely.
>> In which case you you make no losses.
>> Absolutely. So Alex, this is the beauty of the bond market that generally when you buy a bond in the primary market at 100 regardless of the volatility in between the bond will mature at 100.
>> Yeah.
>> So if a issuer has purchased this bond with a view to hold it till maturity.
>> Yeah.
>> And and they are not looking at the screen to to see where the bond is trading, they can sleep better.
>> Yeah.
But if you are the kind of person who would like to continuously see where my bond is trading at, then you are probably likely to see a notional gain or notional loss depending on how the market is trading.
>> And at that point of time, you'll probably end up taking a wrong call at the wrong time in my view.
>> So tactical versus in the bond market, this would be tactical versus long-term uh investment.
>> Generally, my understanding is that people are buying bond for asset allocation purpose. They are not buying bonds to trade.
>> Yeah. given the fact that the uh the these bonds uh trading uh has a different kind of taxation uh and and it's not helping investors in any manner.
>> Sure.
>> But so generally as you know that listed bond if you sell below before one year >> uh then it's a short-term capital gain at marginal tax rate and after that it's a one 12 and a half%. So >> generally speaking I believe that bond investors are aware of the taxation issue and they will not probably trade before one year. But what you're talking about is the capital gains that you might uh gain from that not the interest coupon right the interest is still taxable at slab rate.
>> Absolutely.
>> Uh now we were talking about risk. Now one factor and this and you were describing hold to maturity.
>> Now if you don't hold to maturity there is either a capital gain that you could book or a capital loss that you correct.
Right. Now the other aspect is if you hold to maturity and the borrower does not give money back that is where credit risk becomes a problem >> that's called a default >> that's called a default uh why or or how do you understand the potential for default >> yeah that's a very important question Alex and then for that I think we'll have to get into slightly more detailed yes and see >> the way clients are now buying bonds in in the online platform platform in my view is purely looking at the interest rate which is a coupon.
>> Yeah.
>> Uh and and what is also important from the client's perspective is to get to know more about the company uh the history uh their profitability their critical financial ratios uh the management their history uh and and competitive landscape in which that company is operating and the profitability of that sector. Dal this all sounds like something like an equity analyst would would talk about why is it relevant to a bond market.
>> Yeah because see what happens is generally speaking things may go all right. Yeah, >> but once in a while you will probably have an episode where the your the outcome will not be in line with your expectations.
>> Absolutely. So learning from my long career over three decades now I always realize that once in a while uh uh there is always a black sheep that you you fail to spot and and this is where the risk would come from.
When you say that 15.5 lakh cr is correct and the sebi has only found 3,000 cr that's over 90% error right there. The 15.5 lakh cr revenue which has come in for in 4 years is perfectly correct. It is not a processing unit. It is a refining and selling unit. Sebi found spoke to affluence and affluence told them that they have not recorded a single trade with you that Rajes exports is not a client of affluence. So where is that 11,000 crores coming from? The trade is absolutely correct. We have given all the required clarifications to Sebi in this regard.
>> You're directly saying that Seby's finding is wrong. They found that certain numbers of trades have been done from your personal account.
>> I am not telling Seb's finding is wrong because there has been no finding as yet. Mr. Ma, you've still not answered the question. Sebi has considered the gross profit as the revenue for whatever reason has thought that that is revenue.
>> But how can a communication error last 2.5 years?
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>> Hi, I'm Nidat Sha. Watch me.
Let me ask you about a credit risk fund which is meant to take credit risk, right? Right. And you have to evaluate from slightly lower rate. And I was trying to get you to talk about credit rating. Right. So maybe you can a little bit describe credit rating and that scale as well. What are the factors after you look at the credit rating that you look and evaluate when you're judging whether to invest in something?
>> See, I must highlight the fact that credit rating is an opinion, third party opinion on a company. Okay.
>> Okay. It is not an endorsement or a certificate of uh creditworthiness. Oh okay. Okay. So while you may look at the credit rating of an outstanding company and saying okay it's AAA or A plus or A whatever that number is >> it is only to an extent of an opinion by third party company who has gone through the financials met the management at that point of time and has issued a credit rating based on their understanding of the company's creditworthiness and other things. This does not absolve you as an investor from doing your own due diligence if you're putting a large amount of money.
>> Okay.
>> Now, if if the investors feel that they are not equipped to understand this kind of uh creditworthiness issues, then they have to go to professional managers like >> fund managers. Yes, absolutely. I'll come to that in a bit. But what are the factors that you look at? So we when when we are looking at the company uh we normally do uh top down analysis uh based on what the company's operating in sector what is the profit profitability of the sector uh uh what kind of price stock market price variation going on in that sector uh uh what is the outlook of that sector uh and within that once we do understand the sector and its profitability and and in the near-term uh trajectory then we drill down to the company how efficiently the companies managed uh how is their capital structure leverage uh the business cash flow uh and all other measures including uh uh looking at the experience of the management team >> uh and so on and so forth. There's a host of factors that we go through uh before deciding whether to invest in uh the debt of that company or not. Okay, we've spent quite a bit of time explaining you have rather the bond markets, but I want to spend the last 3 or 4 minutes kind of getting getting a sense from you of how things stand right now because there are a lot of uh stresses on the external front with regard to where oil is. There are measures being taken by the central government to arrest the fall in the rupee. All of that is happening. Bond yields have actually gone up in the interim. What are the opportunities that you see right now? Do you how many rate cuts do you see in this current cycle?
When do you see that happening and how should bond a bond market investor look at the current scenario?
>> So the Alex right now the the landscape is little challenging.
>> Yeah. So where today where we are uh it's important to look at where we came from and in the last 2 years what we have observed is that India's credit upgrade downgrade cycle uh has been positive. What does that mean is that there have been more credit upgrades than downgrades. So in the last so that is where we are. So the in fact the downgrade ratio is probably at the lowest >> now at the same time now that global environment has become more challenging particularly after this West Asia crisis and what we are sensing right now is that the global rate cutting cycle is probably coming to an end.
>> Yeah.
>> And there are inflationary pressures which are building up. So in calendar year 2026 chances are that we are going to see global central banks looking to raise rates to control the inflationary pressures.
>> I think in India as we have discussed that in India also the rate cutting cycle is probably coming to an end.
>> Now the reserve bank of India is managing the economy uh in the best possible manner along with the government of India. But our view is that gradually the the rate are going to settle at the bottom and now going to trend higher uh going forward. In such situation I think it's better for investors to focus at the short end of the yield curve uh for investment >> because if the rates are going to move higher then chances are that what rates that you are getting today chances are that the next year you will get the rates slightly higher in >> what we spoke about at the start.
>> Absolutely. So in case if you buy a bond today of say 5 year maturity and if the rates go up next year then chances are that the bond will probably trade below par.
>> Sure. So when you can make a loss >> in situation like that in my personal view it is important for clients to focus on bonds maturing in 2 years from now >> so that you reduce the potential negative price impact on your bond portfolio.
>> Yeah. The rule generally is that the longer you go in the uh in the duration, the higher the impact of absolutely change in interest rate. Right? That is why as compared to buying a one-year bond versus a 10-year bond in case if the yields go higher then obviously the 10-year bond will have a higher price impact as compared to one-year bond because of the tenure >> and when and when the cycle shifts absolutely >> the biggest benefit is on the longest end of the spectrum. So what we are trying to communicate to the clients is that when you feel that the rate cycle is going to trend higher keep the bond portfolio at the shorter maturity and if you feel that the rate cycle is going to trend lower then try to lengthen the maturity profile of your bond portfolio.
>> I think this has been a fantastic conversation.
>> Absolutely.
>> I enjoyed it. Thank you so much for taking the time.
>> Alex, it was pleasure.
>> My pleasure. All right. Well uh hopefully you know more about the bond market now than you did before. And if you've got questions still, write into us and we'll take them up on future episodes. Thanks so much for watching.
This is NDTV Profit.
>> India Inc.'s most respected names chose India's best and brightest.
>> These are kind of awards and you know during lineup you're truly giving it the right weightage. I think it's uh heartening to see talent that there is in across uh India Inc. We should be awarding companies and individuals who have focused not only on growth but also on bringing good governance. Be part of jury and vote on the people, the men, the women, the companies in India who have the right stuff is a great opportunity for us.
>> For us, the biggest thing is trust.
That's what we provide. We need leaders in India that can help take India being a global superpower. We got a fantastic jury and we've left all decisions to the wisdom of the jury.
>> Who will earn India's top business honors? Find out at the NDTV Profit Business Leadership Awards coming soon.
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>> Hi, I'm Nidat Sha. Watch me on NDTB Profit for the most incisive market intelligence and meaningful corporate conversation.
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When you say that 15.5 lakh cr is correct and the sebi has only found 3,000 cr that's over 90% error right there. The 15.5 lakh cr revenue which has come in four in 4 years is perfectly correct. It is not a processing unit. It is a refining and selling unit.
>> Sebi found spoke to affluence and affluence told them that they have not recorded a single trade with you that Rajes exports is not a client of Affluence. So where is that 11,000 crores coming from?
>> The trade is absolutely correct. We have given all the required clarifications to Sebi in this regard.
>> You're directly saying that Seby's finding is wrong. They found that certain numbers of trades have been done from your personal account.
>> I am not telling Seb's finding is wrong because there is been no finding as yet.
>> Mr. Ma, you've still not answered the question.
>> Sebi has considered the gross profit as the revenue for whatever reason has thought that that is revenue. But how can a communication error last 2.5 years?
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And that's the future that SpaceX wants to bring to you.
Heat up here.
Hello and welcome to the special show on the historic listing of SpaceX on Wall Street. What a big moment. It is clearly the artificial intelligent moment of this world. So that's clearly how remarkable and how big this moment is for the world. Now to talk about SpaceX, remember it's the historic listing because it's the biggest IPO that the world has ever seen. It ragged in remember $75 billion valuations of $1.7 trillion sharing the stage with some of the biggest companies in the world like Apple, Nvidia, and valued as the seventh largest company in the world by way of the valuations clocked in of $1.7 billion. Remember, it's far higher than even Elon Musk's earlier listed company Tesla. When we talk about this particular company also remember that it makes the founder Elon Musk first trillionaire in the world and that is a big moment coming in for the founder as well as the company. Now this rocket to Starlink to even AI all combined under one roof star space X and the Starlink as being one of the big components of this has many firsts and many dreams as well as aspirations and that's what really is the attractive bit about this particular company we are talking about maybe colonizing Mars and even going to space traveling to space which has been made possible and on the other hand creating data centers up in the sky by sending 1 million satellites with solar cells. And as Elon Musk just stated at the time of the IPO that he is making science fiction into reality. So that's the big moment. We're talking about what technology can do and this is the big big SpaceX listing that we are really covering right here on NDTV Profit. And we have a huge amount of coverage coming in with expert take on what it really means. Remember Nvidia as well as Apple.
These are the two big companies it's competing against. But when it comes to the valuation bit as well, it marks way higher in terms of valuations in terms of uh also 93 times of the sales to price valuation. So that's something hard to digest. There have been many bills, bears as well as bulls talking about this particular IPO. In fact, we have Natasha Israni who's right there at NASDAQ and joining us live from Wall Street. In fact, we the first ones from India to really get our coverage straight from Wall Street coming in and Natasha will be with us to talk about the mood, the valuation, what Wall Street really thinks about this big IPO and what a big moment it can be from space travel to sending rockets, lifting rockets and this particular launch of SpaceX has been a big big moment. All right, let's take it straight across to Natasha Israni who is joining us right there from NASDAQ coming in. Natasha, uh, so good to see you and of course looks like it's an electrifying environment right outside NASDAQ there.
How's the buzz? How's the momentum when we talk about the SpaceX listing and how's the mood out there? Tell us all about it.
feels like we're standing in the center of the earth at the moment because anyways, Time Square, New York City is the center of the financial world and now with SpaceX and with Elon Musk talking about taking humanity into the future and making humanity a multilanetary species, it seems like the place to be. So, I can tell you I've been here for now over an hour and I've steadily seen the crowds here gather. Of course, there's a lot of press covering this historic moment, but there are also lot of passers by taking videos and pictures of SpaceX trying to listen in to what Elon Musk is saying, and certainly a lot of excitement in the market, too. Now, trading, you know, starts at 9:30 a.m. NOW, WE ALREADY KNOW THAT ELON Musk has made $75 million at 110 $135 per share, but trading hasn't started yet, and trading could start anytime after 9:30 a.m. So, the bigger story is going to be when trade opens, at what price will those shares be exchanged and sold? whether it's going to be 135, whether it's going to be $110, it shows that it was overpriced, or whether it's going to be $160 or $170, which shows that it was underpriced. So, that's the big question. And to answer all of this, and much more, I'm so honored and delighted to be joined by a friend and a veteran financial journalist, Conway Gittens.
He's also the host of the YouTube channel Main Street Money Moves and his whole idea is to make business more accessible to the main street. So with that idea in mind, Conway, first of all, thanks for being with us this morning.
Slightly rainy here today or when you look at this big story, right, it's all about Elon Musk, a lot of excitement, but are there any bets? Are there any butts? Like who are we really looking at? What is this company? It's not just a rocket company. It's actually a company that has AI data centers which doesn't have yet in orbit Starlink. So tell us more about what investors will be placing the bet on.
>> So well SpaceX right the space side of the business gets all of the attention in terms of SpaceX the company twothirds of the sales actually come from Starlink. Starlink is the satellite data company that's up in in this terrestrial and is providing internet web uh access to uh people around the world. 10 billion people uh have access to Starlink right now in terms of its customer base. So you get Starlink, you get SpaceX and you get X AI but also you get X remember Twitter X is a part of of that as well. So Starink now you know what people don't understand often is they think that they're betting on a space company but this is much more than that. In fact most of the revenue does come from Starink as Starink as Conway pointed out. But the other thing is that SpaceX was actually not profitable last year and it's still dead as one of the largest the largest IPO ever. So what what is what are investors really hoping for? Are they just buying into Elon Musk's vision or are these investors really thinking hard about whether this company is going to be profitable in the future?
>> Well, there are two things that they're buying. The most important thing that they're buying is Elon Musk, right? Elon Musk has a track record. You look at PayPal, you look at Tesla, everything that basically most of the things that he's put his hands to have turned into gold. And so people are betting that his vision for space transportation and his vision for space tourism is actually going to pay off. Now the thing about Elon Musk is he's a visionary, right? He doesn't always get the timing right, but he gets the big picture right. So let's say when he's talking about Tesla and he was talking about fully automated uh driving, right? He might have gave a deadline when he thought it would hit the road. That's not it didn't hit it didn't hit the road in that time, but we're on our way to that. So that's what people are thinking about when it comes to SpaceX that the the transportation and the tourism side of the business is going to pick up significantly over the years and over the decades. So really it is projecting into the future and saying yeah we bet on this man no matter what he is and what he says he actually manages to pull things off and he has pulled things off in the past from electric vehicles to rockets uh that people thought were not possible that whether or not he's no longer private now that it'll have to give those financial quarterly statements which it didn't have to earlier.
more but for now we're tossing it back to you.
>> Thanks uh for that Natasha and also stay on with us. Very very interesting takeaways coming in from Conway as well.
Uh when we talk about um it's not buying into the lossmaking company but the vision and ambition of Elon Musk. Let me welcome on the show a panel of experts who are going to go deep dive on this particular historic listing. Jonathan Bryce who's the executive director at CNCF joining us from California as well as we have Pawan Kumar Chandana who's the co-founder and CEO of our own space space technology in the private space Skyroot Aerospace and we have with us Shri Kantto Makani who's the co-founder of Fractal and NASCOM chairman gentlemen so good to have you on NDTV profit shriant what does this really mean for the AI moment in the world.
>> The very first thing we have to recognize is that while SpaceX is an amazing rocket company, space travel company and it is the foundation really what makes money for them is Starlink which is the internet service provider for the world.
>> Uh that is a large part of the revenue today more than 50% of the revenue. But the real future is SpaceX is trying to become an AI infrastructure company.
what they're trying to do and which is which will be the largest part of their total addressable market which is an impressive 28.5 trillion just for reference the whole world economy is 100 trillion today 28.5 trillion is the total addressable market according to them of that a vast majority comes from AI infrastructure now Elon's vision is to own the entire stack of AI the stack of AI starts with energy right the very first thing that you need is electricity to power everything and US electricity the production has only increased by 3% a year so rates are increasing production is low therefore his vision is to have a sat bunch of satellites solar cells that are helio-stationary getting sunlight all the time and therefore with four or five times more efficiency power the space data centers which power AI. So the first stack is energy. Second on chips, he has now tied up with Intel and with Tesla to create what is called a terapab where he wants to generate one terowatt worth of chips every year after a certain period of time. So he wants to own the chip layer, the energy, the chip. The next comes the infrastructure where you basically provide AWS Azure like AI infrastructure services. He really wants to own that by setting up those data centers in space powered by solar energy and therefore also solving all kinds of problems like water usage etc. That's a third stack. The fourth one on top of that is the model. Here Elon has access to x.com 250 million posts every day. um bunch of lots of active users, fresh data along with that he has models the gro set of models which aim to be maximally truth seeeking accord according to him and therefore take him to AGI and finally on top of that he wants to build all kinds of applications he's invested in cursor and is might buy it for 60 billion but he's also building something called as macro hard which is a pun on Microsoft he wants to build the eventual agentic AI software company called macroh hard.
So he wants to own the full stack right from energy to chip to AI infrastructure to model to applications all of it. So this is his grand >> full stock uh full stack of AI actually there Shriant and that's what he's really building and he has touch points with many of the big companies in the same space as well like Anthroic like Google like Nvidia so that really cuts across the entire space but let me throw this question to Jonathan Bryce. Uh Jonathan, what do you make of this rise of uh SpaceX IPO? The way the listing momentum has gained traction and on the other hand the big ambition and the dream that they have.
>> Well, I think that Sri Kant hit on the uh the the real story here which is this is as a story of AI infrastructure growth. I think that's where people see potential with SpaceX and really across the tech industry right now. Um if you look at the largest uh kind of hyperscalers uh the the AWS, Amazon, um Google, uh Microsoft, Azure, they're all spending hundreds of billions of dollars on capex because they see this massive opportunity. And the opportunity is that we're moving from the research area of AI into kind of the factory production of AI. We're moving from just training models to running inference workloads at massive scale to answer questions, make predictions, and really drive business value. And this is this is something that we see in uh in the way that compute is being deployed across the world. In the last 2 years, most of the compute that was being used for AI has shifted from being used for training these massive models to actually running and serving these massive models. So, this is just the very beginning of this massive, massive AI infrastructure investment.
Right. Great points there, Jonathan. But of course, we'll have to slip into a short breather and we'll come back for more on this particular discussion.
Please hold on to your thoughts on this historic moment, the big AI moment for the world. Take a short break and come back.
When you say that 15.5 lakh cr is correct and the sebi has only found 3,000 cr that's over 90% error right there.
>> The 15.5 lakh cr revenue which has come in four in 4 years is perfectly correct.
It is not a processing unit. It is a refining and selling unit.
>> Sebi found spoke to affluence and affluence told them that they have not recorded a single trade with you that Rajes exports is not a client of affluence. So where is that 11,000 crores coming from?
>> The trade is absolutely correct. We have given all the required clarifications to Sebi in this regard.
>> You're directly saying that Seby's finding is wrong. They found that certain numbers of trades have been done from your personal account. I am not telling Seb's finding is wrong because there has been no finding as yet.
>> Mr. Ma, you've still not answered the question.
>> Sebi has considered the gross profit as the revenue for whatever reason has thought that that is revenue.
>> But how can a communication error last 2.5 years?
All right, welcome back. We are discussing the historic listing of SpaceX and we have a team of experts joining in with the details on what it really means. Pawan Kumar Chandana when we talk about space technology this is big moment and you are in the private sector here in India. What does it mean when it comes to the technological advancement? How much more advanced is SpaceX in this particular field globally and where does India really stand?
Yeah. So, Nisha, I think this is a very historic moment and as being part of the space community really super super happy uh for what SpaceX have achieved so far and what it has done for the industry.
So, SpaceX has pioneered uh you know spaceflight. It is a 24 year old company. Uh it has from started uh in 2002 you know as a very small startup and now it is emerged to build like the largest IPO in history across all companies. is a proud moment for the entire space industry and it has pionate uh you know especially the reusable rocket technology where today uh you know it is able to launch one launch every alternate day. So last year it has done 165 launches and it's increasing its launches every year which is unprecedented in the space industry and it is building uh the largest ever rocket made by humans the starship. It has done like 12 launches of it and it is going to be a fully reusable rocket where the entire rocket not only the first stage the entire rocket lands back and refuel and launches again and this is going to be tremendously useful in taking more mass to space and in fact like the ambition of SpaceX to put a million AI satellites in space is can be fulfilled with this technology. Uh so definitely it's like a pioneering uh company 1 million is that executable you know the execution proess and the engineering behind it paw very quickly is that uh an executable ambition >> that's that's a great question in fact like 5 years ago if you would have as asked us like you know if Starlink would be 10,000 satellites in orbit we would have said that it would have been impossible but now SpaceX made it possible. So I I'm sure like I think a million AI satellites in space is also possible. Of course it may take long time. It may take much longer time than what SpaceX might be expecting to do.
But I think uh the goal can be achieved and if you can put like 10,000 satellites in orbit in record time I think with a rocket like Starship which can put so many satellites in one go. I think it is achievable though it's ambitious.
>> All right. ambition but then then it has also been uh one of the attractions uh for the SpaceX listing and that is the 1 million of these satellites and also creating the entire huge amount of data centers in the space. Uh but let's um also go across to uh the um you know NASDAQ and also uh Natasha is joining in. Natasha so um you know you heard the whole conversation there is one important question that you also rad in earlier that is now it's in the listed space a large amount of the voting rights and the share of voting lies with Elon Musk there has been a buzz of Tesla as well as SpaceX merging in future what is the construct all there and what is the chatter around it >> well the construct is you Elon Musk has done what Elon Musk wanted including in the way he went about the road show of this IPO unlike other road shows he decided beforehand it was going to be 125 USD and he's stuck with that so he has a way of doing his own thing and now that he is part of a publicly listed company the 30% owned by privately how does that change the game now remember he still holds a majority stake he's still CEO, he's still the chairman, but he is going to be having to be more accountable with those quarterly profits and results. And that is what we're going to be watching more closely.
>> That's right, Natasha. In fact, great point. It's the artificial intelligence which is driving the momentum as well as the valuations even though lossmaking.
Jonathan Bryce, how doable is this entire full stack of AI? How ambitious is this? And coming from the tech world, what do you think about this aspiration?
>> Yeah, it it reminds me a lot of the early days of the internet when uh we saw what we thought at the time were unprecedented levels of investment, unprecedented valuations for companies and we look back now and we see that in reality the the value that was created was much much much larger than than we expected 20 years ago. And I I think the one of the key things um that we see right now with with AI is there are actual hard constraints that are keeping AI systems from scaling as much as the demand is is that is exists for them. So we you know we talked earlier about power uh power demand hardware demand you know um Nvidia can't make enough GPUs to to to fulfill all of their customer orders. And this is actually where um the the work that that we do in uh in the cloudnative community is really important because what we are seeing is that through software people are scaling their hardware further.
They're scaling their power further and we're going to see all kinds of innovations like this so that we can think about how do we make AI more scalable more sustainable and actually rise to the moment and meet the right now insatiable demand for AI systems.
And uh thank you so much uh Shri Khan Jonathan Pawan for your expert take and time on this coverage of this historic moment. Of course it's a big thing for all of us and Natasha for giving your special touch right from the center of where all the excitement is and it is really infectious. I can feel that particular pulse right here in Mumbai as well and all of us can really uh be immersing in this particular you know moment right now. All right with that we come to the end of this special coverage. It's a big big IPO SpaceX now it's on Elon Musk to really deliver for the new shareholders. Thank you so much all of you for tuning in. Thank you for joining us but keep it with NDTV Profit India Inc.'s most respected names chose India Ink's best and brightest. these uh kind of awards and you know during lineup you're truly giving it the right weightage.
>> I think it's uh heartening to see talent that there is in across uh India Inc. We should be awarding companies and individuals who have focused not only on growth but also on bringing good governance to part of jury and vote on the people the men the women the companies in India who have the right stuff is a great opportunity for us for us the biggest thing is trust that's what we provide we need leaders in India that can help take India being a global superpower >> we got a fantastic jury and we've left all decisions to The wisdom of the jury.
>> Who will earn India's top business honors? Find out at the NDTV Profit Business Leadership Awards coming soon.
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Feel so good.
When you say that 15.5 lakh cr is correct and the sebi has only found 3,000 cr that's over 90% error right there. The 15.5 lakh cr revenue which has come in four in 4 years is perfectly correct. It is not a processing unit. It is a refining and selling unit.
>> Sebi found spoke to affluence and affluence told them that they have not recorded a single trade with you that Rajes exports is not a client of affluence. So where is that 11,000 crores coming from?
>> The trade is absolutely correct. We have given all the required clarifications to Sebi in this regard.
>> You're directly saying that Seby's finding is wrong. They found that certain numbers of trades have been done from your personal account. I am not telling Sebi's finding is wrong because there has been no finding as yet.
>> Mr. Ma, you've still not answered the question.
>> Sebi has considered the gross profit as the revenue for whatever reason has thought that that is revenue.
>> Hi, I'm Tamana. Watch me on NDTV Profit where I break down the day's biggest business stories. What happened, why it matters, and what it means for your money.
>> Hi, I'm Nidat Sha. Watch me on NDTV Profit for the most incisive market intelligence, and meaningful corporate conversations.
And I'm Alex Matthew. Markets, mutual funds, insurance, personal finance. I help you cut through the noise and make smarter financial choices. And here's where you can watch us.
Welcome, welcome to this edition of the editor's cut and there is so much to imp unpack. Today we have Swarup Mandi uh with us. Welcome Swaru uh to this new offering from NDTV Profit. Now, the rules of the game is don't be polite.
Don't necessarily wait for one.
>> Don't wait for your turn because we we we do this for a living.
>> Don't wait for your turn. If you think that any point that one of us has made and you know, we'll just pull up the points of my take and Alex's take this week. But if you think that you don't agree with any of the points that we have made, uh please come in and say this doesn't make sense. That's that's perfectly what you want and just come in whenever you want to. So So it's a it's editors cut/ verbal dungle. So that's part of it. So so welcome. So this has been an interesting week. We're ending on a high and you know some of the thoughts that come to mind for me is we've seen skepticism because now after so many versions of dealu 10 points 14 points uh there is skepticism skepticism there is fatigue but is is bar is there a glimmer of hope do you think >> I think you know I'll only look at it like it's been we tried and tested some time when it is actually done right because what's staggering for me and this started with the uh Ukraine Russia war the closure measure of the ward is dependent on the smaller country not on the larger it's the smaller country play which when you look at it theoretically or whichever way you're talking about the two largest powers of the world actually dependent on the smaller countries to close it right >> so till it does not close I will not I will not jump the I don't conclude >> that's where I stand though this time it looks a little >> markets are indicating that it's it's going >> I want to believe it >> you know there's one conspiracy theory that ahead of the SpaceX IP PO they're making sure that everything is in a great mood. I don't know.
>> I had a Donald Trump's birthday but even if I had a view I wouldn't be allowed to make that.
>> No, I don't know. The bigger coincidence is that there was a Bloomberg report quoting G7 officials that the deal can be inked on Sunday in Geneva. Guess whose birthday it is on Sunday?
>> Donald Trump.
>> I'm telling you I'm keeping quiet.
>> Okay. So if you're going to keep quiet over here then but anyway so the US Iran deal may be at the final stages of being inked but we are a fair distance from normalization even if you believe this is going to go through and why I'm I'm you know depending on a Goldman Sachs report in some parts of it. They're talking about how oil exports from Gulf producers will normalize only by late August versus by late June which was being expected earlier. Normalization may be achieved with a rise in hormones flows to 70% of pre-war levels given current redirections and there'll be a lower 2027 average Brent forecast by $5 to $80 on higher supply and lower demand. Um meanwhile the other thing that you know through the week people that we've been talking to and what we've been seeing is that December targets for Nifty have been seeing wild swings. So, City for example dropped its year-end target from 27,000 to 26,000.
There have been more bearish analysts on our platforms who've come and set things like 20,000 21,000 by December. Uh my take and belief is that the market rebound on the upside will surprise once the fog of war lifts over the straight of hormones. And I'm not saying this in a bearish or a bullish way. That's that's just how I see it right now. And then of course what was really a cracker this week was our town hall on NDTV profit with Shankar Sharma. It's gone viral. I'm sure you've seen it. Maybe you're one of the many people who've commented on it. And uh you know his his views on retail investors were top trend on X this week by the way. We had brick bats trolling a lot of comments. They're all welcome. There are many who said why have you had this interview? Why have you not? I'm saying it's all welcome as long as there is debate. Some of the biggest market voices have come out in reaction to contention of what he's saying on whether the Aadmi can actually make money in equity and I think debate is good. If nothing else dull market, you know, we've had a chance to talk about something. So, uh, Swarup, do you have a hot take on everything that was said on SIPs, ETA? See, I've been doing this for 30 years and I' I've seen many bare market forecasters come and do that. Every time the market is like this, I disagree that markets do not belong to retail. Markets belong to everybody.
>> The retail might not. I mean, there's a debate whether they should go direct or not.
>> Yeah.
>> But rarely do they participate directly, right? We're talking about 30,000 crores per month from our side. And I'm calling out something now. from here on track the ETF and index volumes as a percentage of the market in the next four five years >> it'll continuously grow >> you're saying volumes volumes of uh >> just the ETF and and >> funds flow >> yeah just how much they are buying as a participant of the market and that's the collective retail right which route they take is a different issue right but to say that the market does not belong to somebody and belongs to somebody is a bare market phenomena and I've heard enough of this in the past >> I actually have a point on this because and I was thinking about this as much as we'd like to point to facts and data and all of those things we have to remember that the market any market is a collection of individuals that is a a mix of emotions and uh more often than not emotions and humans are driven by recency bias. So in September of 2024, you will know this because distributors in the mutual fund space would have told you and they would have come crying to you and saying, "Sup, uh, my clients are telling me that their uncle or their aunt got 22% compounded over 3 years.
What are you doing for me?" And they knew best, right? Cut to today. The recency bias is that nobody knows what is going on. Equity is the worst thing to do and mutual funds are not sahi, >> right? Sure. Should we play out that bite that we are referencing? Okay, so people know what we're talking about.
Here's what Shankar Sharma said on the town hall. Uh it got viral. It was a top X trend. There are a lot of views about it. Uh we as a platform don't agree or disagree with anything anyone says. We provide an open platform for people to come and give their views because we believe you should hear all kinds of views before making our decisions.
Listen in to some of the things he said.
>> SIPs have been a great product. I mean they have made a lot of money except they've not made money for the SIP investors as much as they have made money for VCs, PPS, family offices and of course FIS. So it's a great product for the four major selling groups. So IPOs have been OFS's in reasonable part.
Uh, of course the the family offices have cashed out big time because somebody made a plastic business, paper business, this business and there no clue, no hope they would ever get these exits and now suddenly they have billiond dollar you know family offices.
All that money has been given through a wealth transfer mechanism called SIP to all these informed investors.
Equity markets are meant for big boys and professionals. They're not meant for Mr. Joe on the street because the data does not support equity investing for the retail investor. Best case you make maybe 10 maybe 12%. Those days are also in my view a little bit of a hindsight and past if you're going to make 10% 12% 11% minus the tax of whatever 15 16% you're left with 9 and a half. Divide that by volatility. Annual volatility is about 15 20% in India historically.
What are you left with here? Nothing.
You cannot on a risk adjusted basis beat even a fixed deposit because in fixed deposit you have no risk to begin with.
You have no volatility to begin with. If you do it in a decent bank you'll get your capital back. So you have return of capital and a return on capital. In equity potentially best case is a 10% headline number 11% minus the tax divided by the volatility. You're left with not much.
>> It's a strong take and and he didn't mince words. he generally doesn't. But I have a point to make here and there are several hot takes that have come on SIP.
So first it's become kind of cool or kind of normal to criticize the SIP.
That's something that I I think we can all agree on and uh one analysis actually talks about Sensex returns since inception. It pegs it at 20x since 1994, a modest 10% compounded annual growth rate. It argues that one should not count the 2002 to 2008 super cycle. Why?
because that rally was driven by once in a-lifetime earnings growth. Okay. Post 2010, Sensex returns moderate to 9.4% compounded annual. The author suggests that 10% per year will diminish going forward. Now, why is this incorrect? In my opinion, compounded annual growth rate is not the appropriate measure for measuring SIP returns. you look at either internal rate of return to give you a a correct assessment of what each installment of that SIP has given you.
That's how it is calculated. So suppose you're doing 10,000 per month. It'll calculate the return that each 10,000 has given you over the course of the time of your return. Or you look at rolling return, you look at three-ear rolling over a 15-ear period and it'll tell you what your investment has done.
Compounded annual growth rate can skew a return completely. Take for example a start of April 2020 immediately after the coid9 pandemic the low was hit to September 2024 that return would be vastly different from Jan 2020 or 2019 to June 2026 SIPs allow for the accumulation during periods of drought and as a result of which the SIP return can be very different am I right right or wrong >> right you're right depends on the holding period completely >> and depends on how if the market has done badly for 2 years and then takes off it's Right. But that's when that is the space for SIP investors, right? If you're going to buy units when the markets continue to rise, you're actually buying higher prices. But it's only when you buy on the complete J curve that the this whole concept of SIP sort of uh takes place, right? But everybody has their opinion. Though I do have one point in favor of that is that yes you cannot take away the shift of uh ownership and then if the shift of ownership is going to retail that's we're talking about the number of folios the number of demat accounts it's a good thing >> it's a good thing that the finally the Indians are owning our own stock market till now you know I used to cry and my Twitter handle does say that I'm a sad equity seller because Indians are not owning our own market till now the Indians had not made money out of our market so if it's going to the retail participation. I I I'm >> as long as they're making money.
>> I'm not see both are important.
>> Yeah.
>> The foreign money or the institutional money and the retail. It has to be a good mix.
>> Otherwise, one part cannot be ruling the whole thing. Then it there's a maker checker, right? No, I think I think we look at it uh in extremes and especially all of these >> viewact look at consistency of views on both sides of the market not exactly when the markets are down that that's not >> because tell you what when we go back to 26,000 whether it's next week or a month from now >> maybe the view will not be there >> the the compounded annual growth rate will look different >> shanker has been skeptical always so I don't think he has moved from >> I have nobody to comment on anybody else. I I I can only speak for myself. I mean at the end of the day if somebody is discounting those kind of returns and somebody should just pick up any of those return charts and see what mutual fund or active mutual fund managers across board has done have done over a period of 10 15 20 years for investors.
Now whether investors are holding it or not that's separate issue but that returns are not there I think is factually incorrect. My my only point here is that as I see these criticisms, no real alternative is being suggested.
>> FD real estate and gold.
>> I mean think about >> he asked the question that was suggested.
>> So yeah. So so real estate highly illegal.
>> You're saying no real alternative in your view but the alternative was suggested.
>> My view. Okay. I I'll tell you why I'm saying that real estate you account for most people buy this with EMI and so so therefore there's a cost of interest over the course of the life cycle.
usually 17 to 18 to 20 years, right? You remove that from the picture. You adjust for the maintenance costs that you pay every uh year. You adjust for everything that you do to fix put fixtures in your house and post cost, post uh interest cost, you look at your return. It's going to be single digit >> place shouldn't it's it's a commodity of purchasing. But like we said, it's an open platform. We want all views in.
We're glad that it's gone viral. We're glad everyone's talking about it and it's good.
Uh talk a bit about it. Coming next from New Delhi, what are you picking up?
Yeah. So, uh, Tamina, of course, the last two weeks have been unusually active, uh, you know, on the policy front and the combination of government and RBI move whether it's on the form of etc clearly to strengthen the India's external position and uh what optimism in the government and in the policy policy makers that this will perhaps impact the rupee in the coming weeks. So that we need to see definitely but which they are working on and those lines are coming from any tax intervention as far as equities are concerned some sort of measures on the tweak policy lot of chatter around that as well to you will see that some form of monetization the views are actually divided once One set of people are saying that this perhaps of course shore up your foreign flows but Asia rate hike so India should also do RBI should also do of course it's not the perview of you know finance ministry it's the purview of RBI so definitely that is something RBI to take call on the third important aspect on the fiscal calibration on the budget estimation is going on because somewhere there is a direct effect taking stock himself about the preparedness of as far as whether the what about the biggest buzz on the cabinet reshuffle the political development and policy is very important ahead of UP assembly election uh also because some of the cabinet members Raja Sabha tenure is coming to an end. measures on table you will see some action coming on there but political development is >> it does so we thought we'll get in some of that Delhi masala as well Delhi flavor as well >> challenges not just the limits of human imagination in whatc what our future is going to be but also disbelief in terms of just numbers >> but personally I feel if one were to put an inventor of our lifetime it would be Alon Musk is my personal opinion and and it's just staggering to see how people are betting on him and the future look and contrast it to mutual fund advice past returns are good so everything is good >> the turn the amount of money that is being prepared worldwide to put on one individual's dream about the future is incredible and Make no mistake you know when you look at traditionally even people who controlled the seas would dominate business. People who controlled railroad would dominate business. People then who control the skies to airways continue to then people who dominated internet space.
>> So you're buying all of those dreams and that you've read you've seen the prospectus and all of the stuff in it.
>> So that's what people are saying they I'm nobody to comment. Look at the figure now. Look at the impact on Bitcoin. Look at the impact on gold and look at finally some amount of FI selling in Korea and please understand the Korean market is 2% and look at the impact. So the world is preparing. I'm too small a man to even comment. Right. It's staggering to see this happening within our lives. And >> would you would you bet the house on SpaceX if you could?
>> Yeah, I would. as as Mira said we own before I mean see that's the whole thing when you look at us we are we are limited within our I mean one company going and raising a bit which is larger than all our VC uh raising for the last five six years >> I mean I mean to be fair to be fair look at the strides that they've already made right you about 15 years back you did not anticipate that a rocket could go up and then come back and land in the same spot you didn't know that that was >> one is one portion the business.
>> Sure. I mean, but look at the absurd. I mean, we are talking about data centers on ground. He's talking about data centers in space.
>> Powered by solar >> has to be something no powered by solar.
>> Look at that. And if that vision, >> he's going to mine asteroid.
>> If if that vision were to be correct, >> that world is completely different. We are talking about manufacturing healthcare. He's talking about space.
Look at the gap.
>> But equally, people like Chris Wood have called it the peak of the AI uh exuberance. No, I'm just happy that some parts of AI discussion on cost and all are finally coming in, >> right?
>> So there's a reality check there.
>> There should be at all point of time, right? And and both sides have to play.
>> So if this is turning into a bubble and uh if that bubble will burst at some point, isn't SpaceX the bubbliest of them all?
>> See, I'm top tier bubbles.
>> No, no, time will tell. I mean, I have now two powerful words I have in my life. Don't conclude. like you know when when you look at the steps that are being taken by the government or to attract money don't conclude that there is a queue of people waiting outside India just to put their money in you have to tag that data to see these are good steps great steps so similarly from a 10-year I do not know the price now >> is the beginning the IPO starts the beginning of its journey $135 >> but to fact that to say that all indices have bent their rules to include it in the index which is clear definite something >> it has happened it's a fact they have >> yeah something they know which we don't know >> and our money level to be very honest and and bringing my foot down is too small to actually comment on those kind of money. So let's >> we're this of SpaceX but commenting is for free that this is a show that comments will in your saying time will tell. Problem is that some of the ideas over there the prospector says it may not ever happen.
It'll be several lifes for an average investor or because 30% is retail book in this.
>> Do they have the time for this to tell or they're like you know there seems to be a rocket ship. Let me hang on.
>> My gut and whatever I was in a g global conference last week there was no doubt or debate in that room that people will give him at least 10 years time.
>> Retail people.
>> Yeah. 10 years.
>> 10 years at least. I mean they ready to bank on him for 10 years because there's nobody else >> who's even doing this who's even speaking this language. And ultimately people have been rewarded for the patience that they've showed in Tesla.
Right. So so there is a precedence to this. He's managed to create wealth with Tesla.
>> Yeah.
>> And so >> this is unprecedented.
>> I mean see when we started our careers in the I mean late late '90s the internet started went through a bubble and then it became part of our life or internet became part.
>> So you're saying this is something that could happen. We just have not been able to see it yet.
>> Yeah. Maybe maybe something which is beyond our I mean we're making our first movies. I mean we bought two companies the largest to Reliance tying up on the data center and TCS tying up with anthrop. So we're also getting into our >> we getting into that us and them is a large gap.
>> Yeah. SpaceX is in a different orbit and no >> it's exciting. I don't care what happens to the share price to be honest but to see this area unfolding as the world moves to the space at at a real retail level is is incredible to us.
>> Okay. Colony on Mars 1 million people then Elon G everything happens in the movies. So has already booked his spot.
Okay, that's all the time we have on editor's cut. Thank you so much for joining us. Tell us what topics you want to see discussed. We'll be back next week, same time, same place.
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