Tracking Tropical Storm Bertha - NBC 15

[00:00:00]Hey there Gulf Coast, I'm NBC 15 chief meteorologist Thomas Geeboy. As we move through this Wednesday, we're going to continue to feel the influence of Bertha. However, the worst of Bertha will stay well down to our south and all that is thanks to some moderate to strong northeasterly wind shear. So, the bulk of the thunderstorm activity continues to be on the south side of circulation and that's even with the center of circulation about 70 to 80 miles offshore from our shoreline for our Tuesday night. But, the center will continue to pass to our south. It'll continue to move west on our Wednesday.

[00:00:31]We'll likely move into or brush southeastern Louisiana before eventually working its way towards the western Gulf Coast as we move into our Thursday and Friday. So, as we go throughout this Wednesday, potentially into our Wednesday night, we'll continue to feel some impacts. But, again, the worst of the impacts will be staying well offshore and you'll even get a sense of that just by looking at the rainfall forecast over the next 3 days from the weather prediction center where there's still some bull's-eyes out in the Gulf where 10 to 15 in of rain plus can't be ruled out. Now, the risk of seeing heavy rain in our area, thankfully, that has gone down. Now, as some rain bands move onshore, they will be capable of producing some heavy rain.

[00:01:08]Altogether though, when we kind of average things out, anywhere from half an inch to an inch of rain is the most likely outcome across our area. Locally higher and lower amounts will be a possibility, but the risk of seeing heavy rain not as high compared to earlier thinking because that center of circulation has moved just that little bit farther south. There's still going to be the chance though we do see some tropical storm force winds and that best chance will definitely be down towards the coastline where it's still roughly a 50 to 60% chance. Keep that in mind if you're going to be traveling and the main window for seeing those strong winds will be through our early Wednesday afternoon.

[00:01:40]But, notice as you venture north of I-10, the chance of seeing any tropical storm force winds, they go down pretty quickly. But, again, if you're going to be traveling, bear that in mind, especially if you're going over any bridges or overpasses with that chance for some strong winds. As our winds turn more southerly for our Wednesday with Bertha moving to our west, our winds will become more southerly. That's going to lead to more onshore flow and minor coastal flooding will be a possibility and the coastal flood advisory does stretch from Mobile County all the way through Okaloosa County in Northwest Florida. And the main minor coastal flooding would come around high tide on our Wednesday morning. So for those typically low-lying areas for your morning commute, keep that in mind.

[00:02:18]Also, maybe if you're going to be traveling along on the causeway. And then we could see some minor coastal flooding again on Thursday morning, but all that will just depend on how much onshore flow we are continuing to see.

[00:02:29]The other main impact will be the rough surf. This was the view from Perdido Key on Tuesday. Double red flags were flying. This was shared by All Things Emerald Coast. It is not anything that you want to mess around with those double red flags. Make sure that you heed those warnings. We'll likely see double red double reds for this Wednesday and likely for our Thursday. I would not be surprised if we see red flags flying again on Friday even though the official forecast from the weather service goes to moderate. So you can just count on a high risk of rip currents the next couple of days. We also have a high surf warning through Thursday morning. Just continue to stay out of the water. There are better days on the way. We just need to get to this weekend first, but I know if you're down at the beach if you've been wanting to get into the water, just hold off for now.

[00:03:10]Now, we will continue to see those feeder bands throughout the day on Wednesday. And all together, there's a little bit better than a two in three chance that wet weather finds you, but there will definitely be spacing between the bands and it's not likely going to be all day. So not anticipating any washouts. And outside of any wet weather, there's partly cloudy to partly sunny skies. And if you don't see a lot of wet weather, it's just going to be a steamy day. We'll eventually see daytime highs coming in around 90° and you add in the humidity, even with daytime highs only around 90, heat index values could climb upwards of 110. So keep your eye on the sky for this Wednesday and also make sure that you're taking precautions to beat the heat. It is also going to just continue to be breezy, but as mentioned, the farther north you go, the less breezy it is going to be. While down towards the coastline still have that chance of seeing some tropical storm force winds. So, on our 7-day tracker, we'll continue to see the impacts from Bertha as we move throughout this Wednesday. Otherwise, it's partly cloudy to partly sunny skies, high temperatures up around 90°.

[00:04:04]For our Thursday and Friday, we're going back to normal. Still may be a little bit breezy on Thursday, but not as gusty compared to what we're going to see out there for this Wednesday. Then Friday through this weekend, normal summertime rain chances around 30%. Daytime highs in the low to mid-90s, and then it's an even lower chance of wet weather into early next week as daytime highs could climb into the mid and upper 90s.